Afghanistan News & Discussion

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 17 Jun 2015 06:13

I find myself wondering whether it would a major positive development for Indian interests to see ISIS rise as a force in Afghanistan. If someone like Karzai were to make a comeback as a provincial leader declaring allegiance to ISIS and forming an Islamic State in Afghanistan, that would be a means for sectarian Sunni Islam to provide a basis for unifying many of the warring ethnic factions and providing a harsh but relatively stable rule to the war torn country. An Islamic force like that would be a major threat to CARs and China, cause a major churn in the fundamentalist landscape of Pakistan, and yet have limited threat to India and its interests in the region.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 17 Jun 2015 08:32

^^^
too clever by half.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 17 Jun 2015 09:44

ISIS getting into a fight with the ISI/Paki taliban is not a bad thing -- these are not events India can control, but they definitely work towards India's interests. Provided the ISIS decides that the ISI are not islamic enough for them...but if that were the case, they would be taking on the saudi royals. So there is something very smelly about the ISIS's announcement to be in afghanisthan.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 17 Jun 2015 16:41

Folly is assuming they will fight each other. Let us be clear headed on the dynamics between players before we pass a judgement on "good" or "bad".

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 17 Jun 2015 17:08

>>I find myself wondering whether it would a major positive development for Indian interests to see ISIS rise as a force in Afghanistan.

YIP, not sure it would be a major positive development for our interests. But what it will do is muddy the waters further. There is nothing wrong in that from our perspective, and may open up certain tactical and situational options that currently don't exist. Equally, from our perspective, things cannot get much worse vis a vis Pakistan or Afghanistan. To summarise: the Paks (whether in overt or covert Islamic form) already have nukes, are already lunatics and already hate our guts; we have a worst case scenario we have been living with since these religiopaths formed a state. On the Afghan side, we may return to the status quo ante the American invasion, but it's deja vu. ISIS is just another lunatic group. Key here is that to get into India, they'll have to come through Pakistan. Will be fun for Pakistan. And we are ready to deal with Pakistan as one former COAS put it, "in any form of fray". In short, ISIS may destabilise Pakistan further, but that's not our problem. May be our solution.

>>If someone like Karzai were to make a comeback as a provincial leader declaring allegiance to ISIS and forming an Islamic State in Afghanistan, that would be a means for sectarian Sunni Islam to provide a basis for unifying many of the warring ethnic factions and providing a harsh but relatively stable rule to the war torn country.

In my view, "Karzai were to make a comeback as a provincial leader declaring allegiance to ISIS and forming an Islamic State in Afghanistan" is highly unlikely, and "a means for sectarian Sunni Islam to provide a basis for unifying many of the warring ethnic factions" is unlikely. Stable rule in Afghanistan is virtually an impossibility if the pre-American invasion environment returns.

>>An Islamic force like that would be a major threat to CARs and China, cause a major churn in the fundamentalist landscape of Pakistan, and yet have limited threat to India and its interests in the region.

Agree with everything except that I would change the words "a major" with "an increased".

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 17 Jun 2015 17:21

IS rising in Af-Pak will almost certainly be the ground for future Jihadi advance into India. As long as we understand and prepare for that, we won't be blindsided. But if we want to sit back and watch so called "fun" in Pak, we'll be in for a shock.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 17 Jun 2015 18:25

devesh wrote:IS rising in Af-Pak will almost certainly be the ground for future Jihadi advance into India. As long as we understand and prepare for that, we won't be blindsided. But if we want to sit back and watch so called "fun" in Pak, we'll be in for a shock.

I do not think sir. If ISIS becomes a force in Afpak:
- first US will defang Pak of its crown jewels along with huge desertions to EU, Canada, US.
- At worst, instead of 1000 bleeding cuts, we may have to face enemy directly once again.
- Till now Afpak is our headache, now it will become a migraine for whole CAR, China and to Shia Iran. Till this time, ISI-PA led Pakis are own pain, now ISIS Pakis (remnants after a bloody war) will be everybody pain.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 17 Jun 2015 18:41

devesh wrote:IS rising in Af-Pak will almost certainly be the ground for future Jihadi advance into India. As long as we understand and prepare for that, we won't be blindsided. But if we want to sit back and watch so called "fun" in Pak, we'll be in for a shock.

IS becoming a major player in Af-Pak is highly unlikely at the present time. Tribal culture is still very strong in these areas along with the PA backed Taliban. There is also a lot of drug money with a lot of players being invested in the supply. Iran also prevents their supply through land route. Saudi Arabia will also want to keep PA in power to checkmate India and to hold some leverage over the Chinese. It's not in there interest to see IS rise in this region.

A Deshmukh · Post by **A Deshmukh** » 17 Jun 2015 18:54

Tuvaluan wrote:ISIS getting into a fight with the ISI/Paki taliban is not a bad thing

unlikely to happen.
ISIS is funded by Saudis and so is TSP/Taliban.
The ideological fault-line lies is with Iranian backed Shias and not Sunnis.
Any struggle between Taliban and ISIS will be territorial and temporary and more of hype.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 17 Jun 2015 20:34

ISIS is funded by Saudis and so is TSP/Taliban.

KSA/Paki relationship has taken a downturn after Paki non-cooperation with KSA in Yemen. and KSA seems to be pulling its investments in pakistan. This means that IS (the actual one run by KSA/Turkey) in Afghanisthan will not be on the same page as Paki ISI run terrorist groups and Taliban. Ghani is going to rue the day he made a deal with Pakistan as any KSA-backed IS will have neither Afghan nor Paki interests in mind. Their only ideological soulmates will be the hardline islamist terrorist groups in both countries.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 17 Jun 2015 21:29

Tuvaluan wrote:KSA/Paki relationship has taken a downturn after Paki non-cooperation with KSA in Yemen. and KSA seems to be pulling its investments in pakistan. This means that IS (the actual one run by KSA/Turkey) in Afghanisthan will not be on the same page as Paki ISI run terrorist groups and Taliban. Ghani is going to rue the day he made a deal with Pakistan as any KSA-backed IS will have neither Afghan nor Paki interests in mind. Their only ideological soulmates will be the hardline islamist terrorist groups in both countries.

APJ Kalam will be visiting Saudi Arabia next month, Its time India rightfully step in to fill the void.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 18 Jun 2015 05:47

ISIS and the Taleban may be similar rabid fundamentalists at one level, but they are motivated by very different mindsets. Whereas the ambitions of the Taleban are regional, the goal of IS is no less than the recreation of the Caliphate.

Recollect that the Taleban, at the height of their conquest pre-911, struggled mightily and had to avail of full bore support from Pakistan Army to achieve their objectives against a depleted rump of the original anti-Soviet mujahideen. Even at that time, they could not transcend ethnic barriers, their brutality and barbarism ended up unifying the remaining factions and reducing the conflict to a Pashtun vs non-Pashtun confrontation. Later, of course, once the Americans entered the fray the entire mess further reduced to a Pashtun civil war. All of this is clear only in retrospective, and when contrasted to the performance of the IS in the last couple of years. ISIS has managed to unify multiple nationalities under a Sunni banner, demonstrated considerable organizational capability, and proven that they can be their own masters no matter who their sponsors are.

Now let's change tack and consider the Central Asian Republics, once part of the proud Mameluke Sunni Sultanates. Right now they have shaky governments, seething populations, and long frustrated memories of their proud Islamic past. In other words, ideal environments for fundamentalist Islam to thrive in. And yet, progress of fundamentalist Islam in that part of the world has been frustratingly slow when viewed from the perspective of those with ambitions of Islamic reconquest. This is a direct reflection on the limitations of Pakistan in its role as a leader of fundamentalist Islam in that part of the world. Part of this is that Pakistan cannot escape the gravitational pull of its Subcontinental origins, and the centrality of the Indian threat in its perceptions. Control of Afghanistan, for Pakistan, was primarily for strategic depth against India, and only secondarily, if at all, as a springboard for Islamic reconquest of CARs. The second important limitation for Pakistan is the need to not antagonize China by facilitating a northward spread of fundamentalism. Finally, of course, is the real possibility of pure incompetence. We are talking about Pakistanis here, so to expect them to exercise any influence beyond those directly under their heel is to expect too much.

Given these considerations, an IS in Afghanistan can be expected to orient it's ambitions north of Amu Darya. It can transcend ethnic identities in the region and unify Turkmen, Uzbek, Tajik, Uhigur and Pashtun Sunni fundamentalists to an extent beyond the demonstrated capabilities of the Taleban and their Pakistani masters. An IS regime, thus installed, would be a direct threat to China to an extent the Taleban cannot be, and in a manner the Pakistanis would not dare to be. At the same time, given it's non-subcontinental roots and its alienness to Indian Islam, IS would have little hope of thriving in an Indian setting. Within Pakistan, of course, their presence in neighboring Afghanistan would pose an existential threat - so far, ISI has been able to exert total control over the fundamentalist furies it has nurtured. The presence an alternative Islamic fundamentalist power centre across the border would generate powerful schisms within the fundamentalist cohorts.

So this is what I have been pondering on, and why I think growth of IS in Afghanistan would be a major positive development from India's point of view.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Jun 2015 06:12

YIP, Once IS establishes the very same ISIS will become their mukabarat and all the ghazawa-be-hind folks in TSPA will change their uniforms.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 18 Jun 2015 06:30

Can't rule out the possibility, but it all hinges on the strategic mindset of that entity. We have become habituated to think of Pakistani deep state as the only game in town. Whether they manage to take over the new entity through ISI or if a rival with non-Punjabi origins and mindset retains control will be determinative. That is where a known leader, or an acceptable figurehead plus a behind-the-scenes power center with a sectarian rather than ethnic mindset will make a big difference. Remember, ISI has it's own ethnic Punjabi roots and it's strategic mindset reflects that reality.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 18 Jun 2015 06:49

The strategic goals of IS can be inveigled from its single-minded motivation to establish a caliphate -- the IS would have to raise armies of supporters as it spreads, so it makes sense that they would coopt any pakis willing to fight for a caliphate, and the ISI/paki army has created a large number of pakis willing to work for a caliphate...would be more attractive as a goal than keeping pakistan intact. This also means that India, Russia and China will be the rising powers/challengers to current power structure facing these armies, if the central asian republics are already ripe for creating caliphate armies.

Almost seems like a very convenient outcome for the US/KSA and all EU powers, if they can keep future competitors tied down all in one shot by allowing the IS to create mayhem in the center of the Asian land mass. Maybe explains why the USA is not all that keen to go after the IS cat's paw. US has enough long-term gains by letting the IS spread before taking them down, after they have done their bit of mayhem in Asia -- things can spin out of control if the IS acquires a nuke and uses it.

Samudragupta · Post by **Samudragupta** » 18 Jun 2015 08:44

More than the Central Asia the strategic aim of ISIS is to go after Turkey and North Africa....the reason US is cooperating with Iran is that US sees the real possibility that the IS can be established in this region...considering they have shown tremendous capability to consolidate the territory grab in the Iraq-Syria.... and have shown signs of state building...IS can be established in Af-Pak only if they can break the deadlock either in Iran-Central Asia-Caucasus which they seem would not be able to do considering the forces that are rallied against them...so in this region Pakis will have the mettle of the Pan Islamism for a considerable time in the future....

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 18 Jun 2015 09:25

samudragupta wrote:More than the Central Asia the strategic aim of ISIS is to go after Turkey and North Africa.

Sorry, does not compute. Turkey is one of the key supporters of ISIS today, so ISIS has no reason to go after turkey, when it is turkey that is assisting ISIS to spread. North Africa does sound like a target, though islamist jihadi terror groups like Boko Harem have been active for decades out here, so I don't see why ISIS would waste resources and compete with these other groups, which are liable to be potential allies if ISIS were to establish a caliphate.

habal · Post by **habal** » 18 Jun 2015 10:13

Samudragupta wrote:More than the Central Asia the strategic aim of ISIS is to go after Turkey and North Africa.....

you may have a point there. USA as usual has a plan, mostly built on the back of the latest muslim barbarity mob in asia who are more 16th century than 16th century. Best option for them is to use ISIS as a sword against those threatening to breakout from EU. So ISIS has to expand in North Africa, keep Iraq unsettled and expand into lebanon, so that it forms an arc and gains strategic depth.

amit · Post by **amit** » 18 Jun 2015 10:39

∆∆∆

Just to add to the above. Boko Haram has already pledged allegiance to the ISIS. The other point is do not underestimate the racist mind of the Arab. Dark skinned Africans have always been viewed as slave stock by the Arab world.

IMO while ISIS will welcome pledges of allegiance like that of Boko Haram they are not going to commit resources on that front while richer pickings are available. The place to look at is Libya IMO. ISIS already has a strong presence and the Libyan coast is just a short boat ride from the soft underbelly of Europe.

Islamic Caliphate memory remembers that for almost 1000 years it ruled Spain and Portugal.

JMT

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 20 Jun 2015 00:11

http://news.yahoo.com/afghan-warlord-an ... 28677.html

Afghan warlord angry at being 'sidelined' by Ghani

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 22 Jun 2015 07:21

Taliban offers defection ‘hotline’

The Afghan Taliban have announced a 24-hour telephone “hotline” and email addresses for any government employees wishing to defect to them, as the tech-savvy militants try to bolster public support. It marks a rare attempt by the Taliban to reach out to government officials, frequently targeted in growing insurgent attacks that have sent casualties soaring. — AFP

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 22 Jun 2015 08:26

Tuvaluan wrote:
ISIS is funded by Saudis and so is TSP/Taliban.
KSA/Paki relationship has taken a downturn after Paki non-cooperation with KSA in Yemen. and KSA seems to be pulling its investments in pakistan. This means that IS (the actual one run by KSA/Turkey) in Afghanisthan will not be on the same page as Paki ISI run terrorist groups and Taliban. Ghani is going to rue the day he made a deal with Pakistan as any KSA-backed IS will have neither Afghan nor Paki interests in mind. Their only ideological soulmates will be the hardline islamist terrorist groups in both countries.

KSA is not averse to using islamic terrorists and militants to brow beat other countries. There were rumours that they even had the gall to threaten Russia by using Chechen rebels. Some gruesome terror attempts by IS against Pakjabi interests in Afghanistan or Pukistan will teach Pukies a lesson to not talk back against their Arap forefathers. KSA is still smarting under the Puki denial to join their war against Yemen.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 22 Jun 2015 09:31

Y I Patel wrote:I find myself wondering whether it would a major positive development for Indian interests to see ISIS rise as a force in Afghanistan. If someone like Karzai were to make a comeback as a provincial leader declaring allegiance to ISIS and forming an Islamic State in Afghanistan, that would be a means for sectarian Sunni Islam to provide a basis for unifying many of the warring ethnic factions and providing a harsh but relatively stable rule to the war torn country. An Islamic force like that would be a major threat to CARs and China, cause a major churn in the fundamentalist landscape of Pakistan, and yet have limited threat to India and its interests in the region.

The Pak M/Jinnah wanted a super state of all the M state to challenge the Hindu India

ISIS is designed to create such a super state and to become a big threat to Indian society

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 22 Jun 2015 10:07

^^^
Why is that a bad thing?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jun 2015 11:46

pakistan has launched a full scale attack on the afghan parliament while in session
http://www.ibnlive.com/news/world/suici ... 09861.html

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 22 Jun 2015 12:05

svinayak wrote:
Y I Patel wrote:I find myself wondering whether it would a major positive development for Indian interests to see ISIS rise as a force in Afghanistan. If someone like Karzai were to make a comeback as a provincial leader declaring allegiance to ISIS and forming an Islamic State in Afghanistan, that would be a means for sectarian Sunni Islam to provide a basis for unifying many of the warring ethnic factions and providing a harsh but relatively stable rule to the war torn country. An Islamic force like that would be a major threat to CARs and China, cause a major churn in the fundamentalist landscape of Pakistan, and yet have limited threat to India and its interests in the region.
The Pak M/Jinnah wanted a super state of all the M state to challenge the Hindu India

ISIS is designed to create such a super state and to become a big threat to Indian society

ISIS is not a good news for India long term. India has sizeable percentage of muslims and weak internal security structures. Increasing islamic fanaticism and isolation of muslims is never a good thing. That said, in the short and medium term, if ISIS can be made to hurt islamic nations very badly including Pukistan it will help us tactically. However, being tactically brilliant and strategically retarded has never proved to be a wise strategy.

One can argue that things would need to get worse before they are resolved for good and that way ISIS is good for the long term. I have my doubts on such concepts.

partha · Post by **partha** » 22 Jun 2015 12:31

Singha wrote:pakistan has launched a full scale attack on the afghan parliament while in session
http://www.ibnlive.com/news/world/suici ... 09861.html

Afghan president Ghani probably forgot to include a clause in the recent NDS-ISI MoU that Afghan Parliament is off limits for ISI backed terrorists.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 22 Jun 2015 12:43

So ISI decided to punish Ghani for recent souring of relation?

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Jun 2015 13:18

schinnas wrote:
One can argue that things would need to get worse before they are resolved for good and that way ISIS is good for the long term. I have my doubts on such concepts.

what is ISIS. who is ISIS.

ISIS is India's best friend. They do not scare us.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 22 Jun 2015 19:20

"I killed 6 Pakistani slaves " (Pakistan Gulam) , 3:50 onwrds

[youtube]Q7kG1vt-tg4?t=3m50s[/youtube]

tushar_m · Post by **tushar_m** » 22 Jun 2015 19:25

Afghanistan Parliament Building Attacked by Taliban

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2015 20:13

Isn't the Parliament Building a gift of Govt of India?

Bad news is Taliban attacked the Parliament during Ramzan. Shows Taliban are bad Muslims!
Good news is Afghans shot the attackers dead and sent them to jahnnum.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 22 Jun 2015 23:25

habal wrote:
what is ISIS. who is ISIS.

ISIS is India's best friend. They do not scare us.

Where is this coming from?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2015 23:36

gandharva wrote:"I killed 6 Pakistani slaves " (Pakistan Gulam) , 3:50 onwrds

[youtube]Q7kG1vt-tg4?t=3m50s[/youtube]

Afghanistan finally has new hero they can look up to.
This soldier calmly dispatched the six Taliban jihadists to jhannum one after the other.

So one Afghan against 7 Taliban. All with one rifle.
He is right in calling them Paki slaves.

The Afghan Parliament building was gift from India.
The manner in which the Taliban attacked is a ISI trademark of using suicide attackers with rations attacking a high value target and taking hostages and killing them/ Repeat of 26/11 Mumbai attack.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 23 Jun 2015 05:42

This MO has the mark of ISI / LeT all over it. I wouldn't be surprised if ISI used LeT to plan and execute this failed operation. Probably the cannon fodder were from Taliban. Interesting that recently such attacks of LeT / ISI (attack on Indian embassy in Herat with aim to take hostages, and now this) seem to be failing with all the attackers neutralized by the security forces.

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 23 Jun 2015 15:04

The Afghani parliamentarians seem extraordinarily calm.. Gotten all numb after seeing many such attacks? Or has the shock numbed their senses?

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 23 Jun 2015 19:43

^^^
Yes that is what I noticed too. Guy on podium was cool as cucumber. Actually he wanted to finish the speech.

habal · Post by **habal** » 23 Jun 2015 20:46

he knew it was the bloody bakis again and let his resilience and reflective hubris vis-a-vis pakjabi guide the way.

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 23 Jun 2015 20:58

I hope after this incident Ghani gets his head out of the Pindi channa gas clouds and comes back to earth... Afghanis are already losing ground.. his Dovish policies need to be replaced with Dovalish policies..

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 24 Jun 2015 20:40

I think that therr is more to the ghani intel sharing episode. Most likely afghan army and intel arent playing ball so its just paper. Wouldnt make sense for isi to launch an attack otherwise.