Afghanistan News & Discussion

[RamaY]

In addition to whatever recommended so far, I propose that every child in Afghanistan be given a AK-47 and every women a RPG launch by India. Arm the average Afghan to the tooth and relax.

[hulaku]

Afghan president meets with Siraj Haqqani: Report

Reports from Afghanistan indicate that the president of Afghanistan, the head of Pakistan's military intelligence service, as well as Pakistan's army chief, have met with the al Qaeda-linked leader of the Haqqani Network, one of the most dangerous terror networks operating in the country.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai, General General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Pakistan' top military leader, and Lieutenant General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the chief of Pakistan's notorious Inter-Services Intelligence directorate, are reported to have met with Sirajuddin Haqqani earlier this week to negotiate an end to the insurgency, according to Al Jazeera. The location of the purported meeting was not disclosed.

Read more: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/ ... z0s4amrcLO

There it goes

[brihaspati]

Summary of the mess in Afghanistan :

prologue :

(1) Obama admin wanted to "stabilize" AFG situation for US commitments and withdraw showing "stabilization" for Afghans. The real objective was the circus tight-rope walking of not losing face personally compared to the hawk predecessor, not losing face for US military and foreign policy by appearing as being forced out - while managing to retreat, cut losses and evacuate.
(2) Surge theory developed after certain aspects of military invasions over the flat deserts of Mesopotamia, apparently succeeded in cornering opposition into the cities. The model appeared attractive for its publicity value as a "success" and therefore sought to be applied to AFG. However the brilliant generals failed to appreciate the dissimilarities in field conditions. There was no Saddam in AFG for decades to practically emasculate the numerous tribal warlords grown fat with smuggling drugs, women and arms. Cities in AFG were not the only places to sustain human life and insurgency. A practically non-existent state during Soviet occupation with porous borders, Paki presence, allowed multilateral cooperative networks between the Afghan warlords, militants, jihadis, Pakis, and American or western covert operatives all dabbling in drugs trafficking to fuel their operations. This armed economy itself is a virtual state beyond the control of any formally foisted state - something not found in Saddam's Iraq.

(3) Operation "Surge" had to be modified for ground conditions, with the whole thing now turning into a media exercise for home political mobilization or satisfaction. The cities would be "cleared" of Taleban or Jihadi presence. Media who do not have much penetration anyway outside western military cover, will capture street scenes that will have less of a Jihadi face. Meanwhile Talebs are "warned" to "melt into the civilian" population - ostensibly to reduce western caualties, but also to make the photo-shoot opportunities easier to obtain. Calculation : once the public face requirement is satisfied, put up the next political phase of "withdrawal" in place.

The main drama :

(1) Withdrawal required also showing the home audience that there was some degree of "stable" gov in AFG when USA decouples. But the west had destroyed all elements of nascent democratic, modernizing elements in AFG society when it pampered the Jihadis as antidote to communism. Jihadis used it full advantage to erase any seeds of modernization, and "un-Islamic" trends that were developing in the cities both under the liberal king as well as the Soviet backed communists. So now anyone who forms the government will be some degree of green leaning more and more to deepest shade as time goes by - for Islamism inherently has to drive and compete to reach 7th century Arabia as fast as possible. With the employment of the Paki Jihadis from under Zia in cooking this Afghan soup, this means no way out for Americans.

(2) Since all legitimacy in AFG now depends on the degree of Islamism being seen in the claimant to power, america therefore knows that no stable government can form unless the deepest shade of green available is in power. Because the currently "most pure" will be able to take appropriate religiously sanctioned methods to see to it that the less pure cannot contaminate the purity. Since there can be, will never be, any trials of Islamists in AFPAK regimes, for war-crimes or crimes against humanity [no Taleban will ever be tried at the international court of justice or in the courts of the great humanitarian nations] - Talebs are in an unique position to ensure stability as long as they are not bombed out of power in the cities.

(3) So sooner or later the west+Karazai+Pakis will begin negotiating with the talebs to bring "stability". the critical point is about who loses how much face. Pakis lose face if their agents are also not sharing power from within the Talebs. Americans lose face if they fail to put up an apparently moderate Islamist government. Talebs lose face if they are seen as conceding.

(4) To strengthen their hands each side tries hard. Americans try a surge that pretends to be tsunami but flounders on the coastal rocks as a mere wave with surfs creeping inland. Someone has to take the blame and the wise commander creates conditions for his own expulsion so that he does not have share the final axe. this is nice because all concerned, the commander-in-chief, ex-commander on field, and new commander in field can all blame each other in a daisy-chain - with culpability fixed on none.

Pakis pretend to bash the interconnecting strands between its own government, army and secret services and that of the Talebs to show who should be the boss. Only to discover what I had predicted on this forum - that ISI-Army went to create, modify and manipulate the Talebs and will end up being itself influenced by the Talebs to form a middle group inclined towards a new Islamic state on the lines of a Caliphate.

The Talebs know that their time is coming. Once the world, and the concerned powers accept the legitimacy of Islamism - only the "purest" will survive and dominate in that region. They went away from the cities - which did not matter much anyway now with the whole country turned into a huge smuggling market. Built back their hinterland, obtained new alliances with Islamist nations and Islamophiles who were hesitant before, and planned their comeback.

epilogue :

(1) Talebs come back to power. Initially they join up with a sham government of national consensus. But the real power in AFG is with the gun. ISI and Paki protion of the Talebs coordinate to make the northern Paki occupied western India one arm of the southern Afghan stronghold of Jihad. Iran forgets about Shia-Sunni divide to supply Talebs and extend and safeguard their reach towards IOR. They would also not like the Balochs to raise their heads.

(2) USA saves face, and withdraws. But there are political and military casualties back at home. Both PRC, and Iran see no problem in helping out the Talebs. PRC wants to keep the KKH open at any cost and preventing Uighurs from raising their heads. Iran is concerned about securing the Gulf, and Balochs and will really have no great tactical advantage in preventing "others" from attacking the unreliable "India".

(3) Northern Paki whisky swillers move south, goad more revenge on the hated Kuffar to their east while packing bags for asylum and even greater access to whisky in the west. The Talebjabi state expands gradually to the south of Paki occupied territories.

[abhishek_sharma]

Pakistan’s Plan on Afghan Peace Leave U.S. Wary

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/world ... liban.html

[Sanjay M]

epilogue :

(1) Talebs come back to power. Initially they join up with a sham government of national consensus. But the real power in AFG is with the gun. ISI and Paki protion of the Talebs coordinate to make the northern Paki occupied western India one arm of the southern Afghan stronghold of Jihad. Iran forgets about Shia-Sunni divide to supply Talebs and extend and safeguard their reach towards IOR. They would also not like the Balochs to raise their heads.

How will Iran forget the Shia-Sunni divide, when the Sunni/Wahabi/Deobandis are the ones pursuing it and inflaming it, by insisting the Shia are heretics? It's not upto the Iranians whether the divide continues.

(2) USA saves face, and withdraws. But there are political and military casualties back at home. Both PRC, and Iran see no problem in helping out the Talebs. PRC wants to keep the KKH open at any cost and preventing Uighurs from raising their heads. Iran is concerned about securing the Gulf, and Balochs and will really have no great tactical advantage in preventing "others" from attacking the unreliable "India".

So USA withdraws and leaves AlQaeda still intact, and able to launch further attacks? What happens if AlQaeda training camps flourish again in the shade? Will the US go back to launching $5million cruise missiles to destroy 50cent mud huts?(which are evacuated by the time the missiles arrive anyway)
China would prefer that CentralAsia remain closed to the outside world and clean of foreign mischief, which is why it joined forces with Russia in founding the ShanghaiFive. Both countries feel the same way on that.

(3) Northern Paki whisky swillers move south, goad more revenge on the hated Kuffar to their east while packing bags for asylum and even greater access to whisky in the west. The Talebjabi state expands gradually to the south of Paki occupied territories.

Pakistan could degenerate in the meantime, a la North Korea, in the absence of US aid.
Pak would definitely restart terrorist militancy in J&K bigtime - and the attacks could easily extend to other parts of India. 26/11 type attacks could become a regular occurrence, since Pak always denies things shamelessly anyway. They have plenty of illiterate moronic Kasabs they can keep firing like human missiles at India. For this Pak only requires the freedom to station more troops on the border with India, which it will have once the US withdraws from the region and the anti-Taliban operations are called off.

With each 26/11 type of attack, the following ritual will happen:
1) terrorists inflict terrible carnage and loss of life
2) media rubberneckers will flock to give intensive coverage, like it's a cricket match
3) Pak will deny responsibility
4) MMS will loudly and proudly proclaim: "Vee vill not bow to terrorism!"
5) Kaangress will announce the need for an inquiry into the "failure" of security forces to adequately stop the attack
6) Chidambaram will offer his resignation
7) Sonia will refuse it, praising how noble he is for offering to resign
8] Chidambaram will continue on, saying the matter of his resignation is a closed matter
9) Kaangress will announce plans for Kaampensayshun
10) relatives of the victims will immediately wipe their tears and start queuing up to get their cheques
11) Some time will pass, to fade the episode from immediate attention
12) Go back to Step 1 - Do Not Pass GO, Do Not Collect $200

[SSridhar]

Afghan president meets with Siraj Haqqani: Report

Reports from Afghanistan indicate that the president of Afghanistan, the head of Pakistan's military intelligence service, as well as Pakistan's army chief, have met with the al Qaeda-linked leader of the Haqqani Network, one of the most dangerous terror networks operating in the country.There it goes

That confirms the reasons for abruptly firing Amarullah Saleh as Intelligence Chief. The alliance being formed is between Karzai on the one hand, and Mullah Omar, Gulbuddin Hekmetyar, and Haqqani on the other hand. Pakistan is acting as the facilitator and King Maker with the complete blessing of the US.

In June 2008, the then Governor of NWFP, Owais Ahmed Ghani asked the US to talk to the Taliban Chief, Mullah Omar and also other mujahideen commanders like Gulbuddin Hekmetyar and Jalaluddin Haqqani in order to bring peace to the region and he warned that otherwise peace was not possible. Simultaneously, there was a mini-jirga (jirgagai) of Afghans and Pakistanis in Islamabad by end of October that deliberated on ways to bring the Taliban to a dilaogue. Such a view has been expressed by the renowned ‘Colonel Imam’ in an interview with the Sunday Times. He therefore suggested negotiations with the hard-core Taliban leadership claiming that they were the ones who mattered in the end.

The Pakistani perseverance, their double-game, the tiredness of the war-weary US combined with its precarious economy and the unwillingness of the NATO forces have all combined to allow the fruit to drop softly in the Pakistani lap once again.

[RamaY]

We can call it anything but this round in Afghanistan is won by Pakis.

Back to drawing board for Indian leadership.

[CRamS]

SSridhar:

Absolutely comendable achievement by TSP, a so called "failed state". But I for one, feel sorry for US, if at all it needs my sympathy. This very same outcome could have been achieved 9 years ago at far less cost, both human and otherwis, after several bombing raids from the air that de-capacitated a bunch of rag-tag Islamists which US gave the label Al Queda. I think by giving this Al Queda a larger than life power, and jingoistic emotions let loose, US is in this stalemate. Except for some superficial disagreement, expect US to endorse TSP game plan of installing Haqqani & Co.

Lets turn clock 5 years hence. Do you see a rejunivated TSP with its nukes unleash terror on India at full throttle? Or could the Pashtoons turn on TSP?

R-man, where are you? Whats your take on the latest developments?

[CRamS]

Sanjay M:

Please, lets use our brains. TSPA is not suicidal. They have given explict guarantee to US that the kind of Isalmists who undertook 9/11 (so called Al Queda) will not get a foot hold again. Its on that basis that TSP is reaping all the rewards we are seeing today. I mean if after so much dialouge here on BR, if you still doubt this, then you are not listening to others.

[Prem]

Panetta says Afghan insurgents show no real interest in reconciliation talkshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/a ... 01928.html

We have seen no evidence that they are truly interested in reconciliation where they would surrender their arms, where they would denounce al-Qaeda, where they would really try to become part of that society," Panetta said on ABC's "This Week." "My view is that . . . unless they're convinced the United States is going to win and that they are going to be defeated, I think it is very difficult to proceed with a reconciliation that is going to be meaningful."

[Prem]

Two Polish tank destroyed in Ghazni, 18 killed or wounded
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news- ... or-wounded

Sunday morning, June 27, about eighteen Polish invaders and their local minions, mostly Polish were killed or injured in Mujahideen separate bombings in Gailand district of Ghazni.(Taliban website)

[SSridhar]

Lets turn clock 5 years hence. Do you see a rejunivated TSP with its nukes unleash terror on India at full throttle? Or could the Pashtoons turn on TSP?

I think two things will follow from the inevitable success of the Pakistani perfidy and the American capitulation.

In the short-term (within the next couple of years), the Taliban and the PA/ISI will combine as before and India will be targetted. Countries do take an epochal time to discard their doctrines. Normally they fine tune the doctrine to meet the emerging dynamics and challenges. Operation Topaz (which is a thousand cuts) and strategic depth will not, therefore, be given up. OTOH, they will be implemented with a greater vigour now.

In the medium term, say within five years, Pakistan will be completely Talibanized if Karzai shares power now with the Taliban under the US/NATO blessing. Already there is a talk of revival of the MMA in Pakistan and we know how much damage that caused leading to all the mess in Pakistan today. I differ from those who claim that Rehman Malik's warning that the Taliban wanted to get at India as mere scaremongering. Rehman Malik will certainly have his ulterior motives, but the Taliban threat cannot be dismissed. My thesis is based on the premise that the worldview of the Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban, and Punjabi Taliban have coalesced. The exit of the US from Afghanistan, even if it retains some power within that country after its exit, will only be termed as a 'defeat' by the AQAM, and rightly so. This is the second superpower that they think they have successfully defetaed. They claimed, at the beginning of the hostilities in c. 2002, that the US would meet its Waterloo and that is exactly what they will crow about by mid 2012 when the US withdrawal would be more or less complete.

All these players would be on a high and would plan more daring actions on the infidel. AQAM has started placing India on the same Christian-Jew axis for a long time now. The nearest country that they could attack among the triumvirate would be India, especially with overt and covert Pakistani support. Besides, not all the warlords and the jihadists can be absorbed in the moral police force ('Prevention of Vices and Promotion of Virtues') that would be formed after the victorious installation of the Taliban in Afghanistan. So, they will have to be employed/deployed elsewhere as it happened just after c. 1989.

With MMA's ascendancy, the already deep inroads made in Pakistan by the Taliban, a society made receptive to fundamentalism by the relentless onslaught of Wahhabi/Deobandi clerics, and the collapsing economy will ease the AQAM into power in Pakistan. Naturally the next step will be India. They could be decimated by us but they anyway love their death as they always pride.

[Sanjay M]

The Pakistani perseverance, their double-game, the tiredness of the war-weary US combined with its precarious economy and the unwillingness of the NATO forces have all combined to allow the fruit to drop softly in the Pakistani lap once again.

Don't forget the Atlanticist contribution. These extraterritorialist 5th columnists have sought at every turn to portray the war on terror as a bad choice, and to herd the Left into opposition against it.

Sanjay M:

Please, lets use our brains. TSPA is not suicidal. They have given explict guarantee to US that the kind of Isalmists who undertook 9/11 (so called Al Queda) will not get a foot hold again. Its on that basis that TSP is reaping all the rewards we are seeing today. I mean if after so much dialouge here on BR, if you still doubt this, then you are not listening to others.

But how can Pak fulfill any guarantee? Once Taliban is running the show again from Kabul, they won't be led around by Pak. As if Pak didn't try to rein them in the first time, and get Osama extradited. AlQaeda is not a static entity either - they know that Pak wants to ditch them, but they're not going meekly run away either.

The more savvy among the jihadis know that they could end up fighting endlessly to serve Islamabad's ambitions. AlQaeda certainly understands this. If anything, AlQaeda might prefer to turn the tables and take the war to Islamabad, in the hopes of conquering Pak and grabbing its nukes. Even Hamid Gul would be happy at that - a chance to remake Pak in his own image. To the smart jihadi, Pak would be the low-hanging fruit, as compared to fighting the north endlessly. A nuke in the hand beats whatever's in the bush any day.

Maybe it's better for us that they make a grab for the low-hanging fruit, since that would keep Pak quite busy at home, and undercut its ambitions to be the jihadi caesar.

[Sanjay M]

Lets turn clock 5 years hence. Do you see a rejunivated TSP with its nukes unleash terror on India at full throttle? Or could the Pashtoons turn on TSP?

I think two things will follow from the inevitable success of the Pakistani perfidy and the American capitulation.

In the short-term (within the next couple of years), the Taliban and the PA/ISI will combine as before and India will be targetted. Countries do take an epochal time to discard their doctrines. Normally they fine tune the doctrine to meet the emerging dynamics and challenges. Operation Topaz (which is a thousand cuts) and strategic depth will not, therefore, be given up. OTOH, they will be implemented with a greater vigour now.

Like I said, they could degenerate NKorean-style, and go in for cruder attacks at us.
I don't think they're in a position to do another Kargil, though. They'll have to settle for highly-intensified insurgency, even spreading it beyond J&K into the rest of India.

In the medium term, say within five years, Pakistan will be completely Talibanized if Karzai shares power now with the Taliban under the US/NATO blessing. Already there is a talk of revival of the MMA in Pakistan and we know how much damage that caused leading to all the mess in Pakistan today. I differ from those who claim that Rehman Malik's warning that the Taliban wanted to get at India as mere scaremongering. Rehman Malik will certainly have his ulterior motives, but the Taliban threat cannot be dismissed. My thesis is based on the premise that the worldview of the Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban, and Punjabi Taliban have coalesced. The exit of the US from Afghanistan, even if it retains some power within that country after its exit, will only be termed as a 'defeat' by the AQAM, and rightly so. This is the second superpower that they think they have successfully defetaed. They claimed, at the beginning of the hostilities in c. 2002, that the US would meet its Waterloo and that is exactly what they will crow about by mid 2012 when the US withdrawal would be more or less complete.

All these players would be on a high and would plan more daring actions on the infidel. AQAM has started placing India on the same Christian-Jew axis for a long time now. The nearest country that they could attack among the triumvirate would be India, especially with overt and covert Pakistani support. Besides, not all the warlords and the jihadists can be absorbed in the moral police force ('Prevention of Vices and Promotion of Virtues') that would be formed after the victorious installation of the Taliban in Afghanistan. So, they will have to be employed/deployed elsewhere as it happened just after c. 1989.

With MMA's ascendancy, the already deep inroads made in Pakistan by the Taliban, a society made receptive to fundamentalism by the relentless onslaught of Wahhabi/Deobandi clerics, and the collapsing economy will ease the AQAM into power in Pakistan. Naturally the next step will be India. They could be decimated by us but they anyway love their death as they always pride.

When you keep cheating on your wife again and again, it's hard to keep getting her to forgive you again and again. The jihadis and Pak Army may be smiling at each other in the wake of the US withdrawal, but once jihadis gain enough power in Afghanistan, they may not be quite as trusting toward Pak.

I don't know if it would be possible to get them to take the fight to Pak. It would mainly be a question of brokering an agreement between Taliban and Northern Alliance, where Taliban agree to give up claims on Northern Afghanistan in exchange for help in regaining NWFP, Balochistan, and even the rest of Pak along with its nukes.

Also, we don't know who the next COAS would be. When's Kayani due to retire? Or will he extend his tenure, like Mushy and Zia?

[RajeshA]

I am not sure, but I believe Al Jazeera was the one who broke the story. Anyway not that important.

Karzai 'holds talks' with Haqqani: Al Jazeera

This development should have been clear to the babus in MEA and elsewhere in our security establishment, since a few years now. This can't be coming as a surprise.

So where does that put India. I too believe that a victory over the second superpower within a span of 23 years would give the 'Mujahideen' and their puppeteers the ISI a tremendous boost. After the Soviet withdrawal, Kashmir heated up. After the US withdrawal, Kashmir will heat up again. The 'relative peace', we have had since 2004 is about to come to an end.

I don't believe that MMS's bending can buy India either peace or containment. US cannot keep the mad dog on the leash. This is all going to blow in our faces.

Pakistan has propped up the Haqqanis as the biggest and most dangerous Taliban clan on the one hand, and kept Mullah Omar in their protection. In fact Mullah Omar seems to have become just the rubber-stamp Bahadur Shah Zafar. All his men having been taken over by the Haqqani gang. As the biggest Taliban grouping active in Afghanistan, Karzai was forced to deal with Haqqani, especially as the Americans left him with few options. Alone the talks between Karzai and Haqqani with the ISI looking on, is meant to provide legitimacy to the Haqqanis as the representatives of all Taliban. At least Mullah Omar used to show some independent pride, but the Haqqanis are totally in Pakistan's pocket.

With two rubber stamp leaders under their thumb, the Afghan President on the one hand, the Taliban Emir, Mullah Omar, on the other, and their wolves the Haqqanis under leash, the Pakistanis seem to be well placed to take over Afghanistan, lock, stock and barrel.

If MMS thinks, he can coddle the Pakistanis to give him some token presence in Afghanistan, then he is mistaken. The Pakistanis would make sure that not only India's interests are trampled under the foot, but India loses face in broad daylight. We will have to close down most of the consulates, perhaps hanging on to a nominal Embassy in Kabul. All the billions that India has invested is about to come to nil.

This is certainly not where the pain ends for India. The pain starts here and continues in a Kashmir which is soon going to burn like hell with terrorist attacks in the rest of India as well.

This is a crucial time. This is the moment in time, when Pakistan consolidates its hold in Afghanistan and looks east towards Kashmir. If India wants to preclude something like this happening, then this has to blow up in Pakistan's face right now. India has to take down the Haqqani gang, either directly or through appeal to the Americans, or through rival Pushtun groups, like that of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. The British are probably in Pakistan's pocket by now.

Only if the Haqqanis give way to a fragmented Taliban leadership some of it controlled by elements opposed to Pakistan itself, is there any chance that Taliban become a rock around Pakistan's neck itself. Taliban can be a blessing for Pakistan or it can be a curse, it all depends on how much control the ISI have on the Taliban leaders. One thing that's really troubling is, that in spite of the fact, that the Americans know, that the Pakistanis are in bed with the Taliban in Afghanistan, they have hardly hit the Taliban in Pakistan, at least not in Quetta. Why? Why haven't they hit the Shura? Don't the Americans want to win in Afghanistan? Till date, they have lost 1062 soldiers in Afghanistan, the Coalition toll is 1883. What for?

The recipe is:
a) Take down the Haqqanis. - Most Important

b) Build up the Northern Alliance with the help of Iran, Russia and the CARs. It is in their interest. Russia and other CARs should know, that their security is also on the line here. For example,the Americans may continue to give money to the Pakistanis so that Chechen rebels keep on getting training in the lawless regions.

c) Find some solution to Mullah Omar.

This thing is going back to pre-2001 state, with a few differences.

MMS should know, there is much more to Indian's strategic interests than just nuclear agreements.

[brihaspati]

Let us try to understand the Islamist mindset as relevant for AFPAK. The remaining doubts will be cleared.

(1) Sanjay M ji, Iran uses its Shia identity as a shield and tool against the two other historical claimants for the bosshood of the Ummah - Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The Iranian posturing is driven by their historical consciousness of empire. They traditionally think of the Gulf and the western bank of Indus as their own sphere of influence. In the modern context, the geopolitics says that their immediate enemy and danger is the presence of the Americans in AFPAK. As long as US presence continues, US army and covert forces can act right into Iranian border and heartland, both in the south through the Balochistan area as well as through AFG.

Look at it carefully : if they can get rid of US presence from Pak and AFG, its entire south-eastern flank is secure from western penetration. Moreover they can secure their side of the Gulf completely, if they can neutralize the Balochis. Iran has shown flexibility to deal with the "kaffir" - as in the Iran-Contra deal, if it serves its tactical purpose. Already there are reports of Iran supplying the Talebs.

In fact the Talebs may actually trust the Iranians more than the civilian occupation gov at Islamabad. In this case the Shia-Sunni hatred at the commons level will not prevent collaboration at the higher levels.

(2) Regarding India as target:

Do consider the complexity of the inner dynamic of Paki occupied western India. The two main drivers of Paki internal dynamic is the contest for supremacy between the Sindhis and Pakjabis over the resources of the occupied territory. This could have been similar to any other intra-regional contests in any other country. However in case of Pak there is the added complexity of Islamism. Which means that in the traditional mode of islamism as hidden imperialism, the contesting groups within Pak also try to pose as the greater than the other in terms of "Islamism". This is to both claim legitimacy within Pak as well as use Islamism as an imperialistic tool to extract obedience and resources from the extra-national Ummah.

So it is important for both the Sindhis as well as Pakjabis to maintain the facade of Islamism as well as compete with each other to become purer in the eyes of the Ummah. at the moment the Sindhis are formally upstaging the Pakjabis. So it becomes more of a drive for the Pakjabis to ally with the Afghan talebs.

In their turn, the Sindhis will be forced to appease and patronize the Talebs to compensate for the Pakjabi support for the Talebs. So where they both can converge in hoping to encourage and gain the friendship of the talebs is to intensify attacks on India. J&K is the most obvious and high profile target that can also be milked for western sympathy. However the real moves will be below-the-radar penetrations of the electorate in the Gangetic Valley, and states and regions where the only potential enemy of Jihadism - any form of "Hindu"-consciousness or resurgence shows signs of activity.

It may appear strange that taleb type Jihadis will care for electoral penetration. But the Talebs have become more sophisticated stragetically and tactically. Moreover, just as the PA went out to form them and were "transformed" themselves, and important angle within India should be considered - the growing predilection of a variety of centre-left political opinion looking at Islamism as a worthwhile tool towards power and social control. So it is these more-politics-election savvy expertise within India that will reach out to the Talebs in the hope harnessing Taleb fanaticism and determination towards their own power goals. in the end they will land up in exactly the same position as the PA.

(3) India is not only a soft target for the Talebs. But India is also the most important target for resources and geo-political strength. Capturing and isolating the Punjab-Gangetic valley opens up connection with SEAsia, blocks out Russia and China and therefore subjects them to greater manipulation for extraction, cuts off the South of India from the manpower/resources/productivity/market of the great northern river plains.

The Talebs can hope for a lot of sympathetic or weak forces to act in their favour in the north. A wide portion of the Centre-Left political spectrum will either join them or become collaborators or passive. People may be uncomfortable with my following statement, but the fact is that no large concentration of Islamic population occupying contiguous or compact territories sharing space with non-Muslims - ever proved resistant to Jihadi violence on non-Muslims living among themselves or in their "neighbourhood". In fact a portion always join the jihadis to extract wealth, land and women. Most do not resist Jihadis out of either ideological considerations or sheer fear. There are large populations of Islamics all along in a long chain of contiguous areas in the Gangetic Valley. If Talebs manage to penetrate, this chain will mostly be a sustainer of Talebism.

[satyam]

(3) India is not only a soft target for the Talebs. But India is also the most important target for resources and geo-political strength. Capturing and isolating the Punjab-Gangetic valley opens up connection with SEAsia, blocks out Russia and China and therefore subjects them to greater manipulation for extraction, cuts off the South of India from the manpower/resources/productivity/market of the great northern river plains.

The Talebs can hope for a lot of sympathetic or weak forces to act in their favour in the north. A wide portion of the Centre-Left political spectrum will either join them or become collaborators or passive. People may be uncomfortable with my following statement, but the fact is that no large concentration of Islamic population occupying contiguous or compact territories sharing space with non-Muslims - ever proved resistant to Jihadi violence on non-Muslims living among themselves or in their "neighbourhood". In fact a portion always join the jihadis to extract wealth, land and women. Most do not resist Jihadis out of either ideological considerations or sheer fear. There are large populations of Islamics all along in a long chain of contiguous areas in the Gangetic Valley. If Talebs manage to penetrate, this chain will mostly be a sustainer of Talebism.

Do you think talebs can take over punjab and Rajasthan ?

[brihaspati]

They would not have been able to, if the north was not reeling under almost complete political confusion. Explore the recent Bareili riots and why it was almost completely blacked out in the media. This will be OT for this thread. Hint : intensifying Barelvi-Deobandi "wars" and the perception in Cong+BSP+SP of the need to buy Barelvi favour.

[brihaspati]

X-posting

shyamd wrote
IOL says the Iranian Pasdaran have created a new structure in a garrison in order to support Afghan Taliban. The garrison which is in the town of Zabul also provides military support to Taliban allies such as Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hezb-e-Islami, as well as Ismail Khan’s Jamaat Islami, which control the town of Herat close to the Iranian border.

[RajeshA]

The deaf and dumb forum has now started lifting whole posts from BRF and printing them there. I presume, it has something to do with the fact, that they themselves only have posters, whose posts, had they been in print, would have at least been useful for the toilet.

[Dipanker]

(3) India is not only a soft target for the Talebs. But India is also the most important target for resources and geo-political strength. Capturing and isolating the Punjab-Gangetic valley opens up connection with SEAsia, blocks out Russia and China and therefore subjects them to greater manipulation for extraction, cuts off the South of India from the manpower/resources/productivity/market of the great northern river plains.

The Talebs can hope for a lot of sympathetic or weak forces to act in their favour in the north. A wide portion of the Centre-Left political spectrum will either join them or become collaborators or passive. People may be uncomfortable with my following statement, but the fact is that no large concentration of Islamic population occupying contiguous or compact territories sharing space with non-Muslims - ever proved resistant to Jihadi violence on non-Muslims living among themselves or in their "neighbourhood". In fact a portion always join the jihadis to extract wealth, land and women. Most do not resist Jihadis out of either ideological considerations or sheer fear. There are large populations of Islamics all along in a long chain of contiguous areas in the Gangetic Valley. If Talebs manage to penetrate, this chain will mostly be a sustainer of Talebism.

Do you think talebs can take over punjab and Rajasthan ?

Not by means of conventional war.

[Dipanker]

SSridhar:

Absolutely comendable achievement by TSP, a so called "failed state". But I for one, feel sorry for US, if at all it needs my sympathy. This very same outcome could have been achieved 9 years ago at far less cost, both human and otherwis, after several bombing raids from the air that de-capacitated a bunch of rag-tag Islamists which US gave the label Al Queda. I think by giving this Al Queda a larger than life power, and jingoistic emotions let loose, US is in this stalemate. Except for some superficial disagreement, expect US to endorse TSP game plan of installing Haqqani & Co.

Lets turn clock 5 years hence. Do you see a rejunivated TSP with its nukes unleash terror on India at full throttle? Or could the Pashtoons turn on TSP?

R-man, where are you? Whats your take on the latest developments?

IMO your conclusions are somewhat premature. UK timeframe for withdrawal is 2015. If recent Obama statements are any indications I don't see USA withdrawing anytime before that either. Five years is a long time, a lot could happen between now and then!

In any case if the end result is that Pakistan is overtaken by Talebans, I am o.k with that!
Pakistan is already a failed state, a takeover by Taleban will finish them.

[Nayak]

Do we have a action plan post US white flag stage? Other than knocking on SD door begging for a chowkidars role shouldnt we be dragging the focus of the bear and bring back to life the now defunct northern alliance. I would rather have India a hold or a share in the opium trade and use that to finance the warlords belonging to minority uzbeks and hazaras.

Rather than writing useless cheques and getting a good conduct boy scout medal we should be joining the bear and pumping arms and.money to keep pukes busy.

[Prem]

from the manpower/resources/productivity/market of the great northern river plains.

The Talebs can hope for a lot of sympathetic or weak forces to act in their favour in the north. A wide portion of the Centre-Left political spectrum will either join them or become collaborators or passive. People may be uncomfortable with my following statement, but the fact is that no large concentration of Islamic population occupying contiguous or compact territories sharing space with non-Muslims - ever proved resistant to Jihadi violence on non-Muslims living among themselves or in their "neighbourhood". In fact a portion always join the jihadis to extract wealth, land and women. Most do not resist Jihadis out of either ideological considerations or sheer fear. There are large populations of Islamics all along in a long chain of contiguous areas in the Gangetic Valley. If Talebs manage to penetrate, this chain will mostly be a sustainer of Talebism.

Do you think talebs can take over punjab and Rajasthan ?

The fear is unfounded , if they try then greater chance it might unleash the forces making detrimental for the existence of Islamists and their sympathizers in that part of India .

[RamaY]

Do we have a action plan post US white flag stage? Other than knocking on SD door begging for a chowkidars role shouldnt we be dragging the focus of the bear and bring back to life the now defunct northern alliance. I would rather have India a hold or a share in the opium trade and use that to finance the warlords belonging to minority uzbeks and hazaras.

Rather than writing useless cheques and getting a good conduct boy scout medal we should be joining the bear and pumping arms and.money to keep pukes busy.

Nayakuddin-ji

What you recommend requires a sense of purpose in Indian leadership, a pair of **s to implement that strategy, and saying NO to Unkil once in a while.

That would mean people cannot have sleep once in a while. And you know how much we love to sleep at night.

[RajeshA]

Do we have a action plan post US white flag stage? Other than knocking on SD door begging for a chowkidars role shouldnt we be dragging the focus of the bear and bring back to life the now defunct northern alliance. I would rather have India a hold or a share in the opium trade and use that to finance the warlords belonging to minority uzbeks and hazaras.

Rather than writing useless cheques and getting a good conduct boy scout medal we should be joining the bear and pumping arms and.money to keep pukes busy.

The theory is easy:

• Get America out of Afghanistan!
• Stop American financial support of Pakistan!
• Build a coalition with Russia, Iran, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan!
• Support the Northern Alliance.
• Help Afghanistan to create an ethnic federation!
• Put the Taliban and warlords (read Haqqani & co.) on the payroll of Pakistan on the Supari List.
• Pump a couple of hundred million dollars a year to the India-friendly Pushtuns to finance the Taliban out to spread the piety in Pakistan. No need for bookkeeping here!
• Enlist the warlords in some regions where mining is possible, give them a good cut, give the Afghan Govt. a good cut and make some money to finance the whole thing
• Support the build-up of ANA and ANP.
• Continue with developmental aid.
• Agree on a détente with Al Qaeda!
• **** the Pakis hard from the West!

It's time MMS puts on a cape and his chaddi on the outside!

[brihaspati]

My scenario about the taleb penetration was less about direct war and more about covert building up of sympathy base and terror infrastructure to weaken from inside. One of the great experiments that I believe has taken place already is the use of "domestic" terror outfits like the Maoists as well as SIMI. Just banning them does not necessarily mean they do not exist.

We can see that the IA, on which most of us here pin there hopes - actually hesitates and falters when it comes to dealing with internally sourced war on the state. There are obvious obstacles, both operational as well as ideological/psychological to unleash the national army against what can be seen as parts of the "nation".

We need to understand the reasons, justified or not, behind this hesitation. What makes the IA effective against direct foreign aggression through or over the borders, also makes it vulnerable when the war on the state is mounted from an inside front. If the Talebs target, their main tactic will be to keep the army busy at the border, while the internal allies and units organizes and strikes back at the state.

To hit back at domestic war on state, you need an additional element of ideological commitment - something that looks at the source of that "war" as alien and foreign. Typically this means, that when the people involved are identifiable with the nation in general by birth, it is their "ideology" which has to be seen as "alien". The army is trained to operate in "external enemy" territory, fighting and liquidating "external enemy" opposition. This is where the problem comes in - for in order to make an "enemy" out of the home-grown Jihadis or Maoists - you have to paint their source ideology as "foreign" and "alien" opposed to some "national" ideology. Now which "command" and which "GOI" will risk doing all that?

The SIMI, Maoist experiments were and are, just that - experiments and trial runs. Terror outfits and warriors against the state, usually jostle for space and devour each other or absorb each other as they grow. We have however not seen these two attack each other - although the potential Jihadi support base and Maoist support bases mostly coincide area-wise (except in central UP). Both these groups will be ripe (if not already) for Taleb manipulation. There appears to be a tentative reaching out from the "red" side towards Islamists. The Moaists are intensely and sympatehtically studied in pukiland.

Will Talebs having staunch anti-commi history cut deals with the Maoists? Yes, for they know how to deal with Marxists once the latter's utility is over. Both in Iraq, Iran, Mullahs used the Marxists to overthrow democratic regimes and then liquidated the Marxists after gaining power. A similar process happened in BD - where the "Liberation" campaign was primarily prepared for initially by the leftist radicals, and then they were liquidated in the 1975 coup.

[Nayak]

bhailog when will we learn to hunt like the wolves when our establishment behaves like a desi mongrel willing to get kicked around and eveready to get a friendly pat on the head from the gora aadmi ?

we dont have to spend any money from our pocket. NA can easily be armed with the opium and mineral trade.

Already karzai is willing ti shake hands with pak army/isi. If we dont keep the pukes busy by stoking the pashtun fires it is just a matter of time before more terrorist attack happen.

Time to start stocking up Raj Kapoors DVDs. We gonna need all the influence we can with uzbekistan and tajikistan.

Hopefully the bear also recognizes the threat. Who knows massa may even restart the fire in chechenya to finger the bear.

[Sanjay M]

Taliban Bans

[joshvajohn]

For me NATO's presence in Afganistan is essential along with other countries including India. But my suggestion is that the NATO forces do not need to fight in every corner in Afganistan and loose their young army folks. Rather engage the Afgans to go on offensive against the tribal war lords and seek for taliban terror groups.

Taliban and Tribal war lords do not practice Islam - the religious of peace. Rather they practice murder and killing as their religion in which it is waste of time and energy to fight these guys there and thus loose Nato guys in this war. It is better to develop business with Afgan in terms of oil and other things. Make local guys to fight the big drug industry there and thus win over the war where both the US and locals would benefit through the oil rich resources.

For india Afgan will be a strategic friend and India should get involved in terms of fighting the terror alongside NATO. India should get involved in terms of eliminating the terror in the North of Pakistan particularly getting the intelligence information about any possible attacks or plans against India.

[abhishek_sharma]

Northern exposure

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/201 ... n_exposure

Surveying the last few months of reporting on the Taliban's efforts to infiltrate northern Afghanistan -- not a traditional
Taliban stronghold -- the authors conclude that after years of little success, the group's campaign is "beginning to have an impact."

"Steadily, over years, and withstanding their initial failures," they write, the Taliban "has established areas of local dominance by sending cadres to different parts of the north."

[abhishek_sharma]

In Afghanistan, Petraeus will have difficulty replicating his Iraq success

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 02982.html

In Kabul, alas, Petraeus will find no such useful ally in the American ambassador. Instead, the top U.S. diplomat there is Karl W. Eikenberry, who relentlessly opposed McChrystal's initiatives. Unlike Crocker, Eikenberry has no strong base in the State Department and is not steeped in the history and culture of the region. Rather, he is a retired general who in fighting with McChrystal over the past year used many of the same arguments that another American commander, John Abizaid, had used in opposing Petraeus's approach to Iraq. That is no coincidence -- Abizaid and Eikenberry have been close friends since they were West Point roommates in the class of 1973.

On top of that, Petraeus will have to deal with Richard C. Holbrooke, who seems to have achieved little as a special presidential envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. And the general will face a host government even more troublesome than what he dealt with in Baghdad. Indeed, the two biggest problems the United States faces in Afghanistan are the Karzai government and the Pakistani government -- and neither of those really can be addressed by military operations.

[abhishek_sharma]

Why Petraeus won't salvage this war

http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/20 ... e_this_war

One of the purposes of the reassessment of strategy will presumably be to identify objectives that need to modified or dropped because they cannot be achieved. Petraeus may abandon McChrystal's plan to expel the Taliban from key districts in Helmand and Kandahar provinces as a metric of success because it has proven to be beyond the capabilities of the coalition forces and the Afghan government.

...

Both Obama and Petraeus now rule out "victory" over the Taliban, and Petraeus, like Obama, foresees the possibility of a settlement with the Taliban, with the involvement of the Pakistanis.

[abhishek_sharma]

US, India leery of Pak's Haqqani card in Afghanistan

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Indi ... 102943.cms

[abhishek_sharma]

With Command Shift in Afghanistan, Talk Turns to Withdrawal

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/29/world ... prexy.html

“They’ve been burned and they’ve seen this movie before,” the official said, noting the American disengagement after the Soviet war in Afghanistan in the 1990s. Should the war deteriorate, he added, Pakistani leaders are thinking, “We don’t want Haqqani turning around and coming this way.”

Senior American intelligence officials believe this BS !

[abhishek_sharma]

THE NETWORKER
Afghanistan’s first media mogul.

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010 ... ct_auletta

[jagga]

Taliban suffers heavy lossed in major assault

Heli-dropped US and Afghan forces killed up to 150 Taliban and Al-Qaeda militants in a surprise major assault along Afghanistan's border with Pakistan.

[svinayak]

http://www.clicker.com/tv/morning-joe/A ... 67392.html

Afghan war is not getting public support. Obama obsession about troop withdrawal

There is debate going on and how to make sure that pro war congress can continue the war. More money and more purchase - when the deficit is really biting


Morning Joe: Afghanistan 'Worse Than a Nightmare'
Air Date: Mon, 06/28/10
Season 610: Episode 0628

The Morning Joe panel discusses the top op-eds, including Bob Herbert's June 25 New York Times article, "Worse Than a Nightmare," on the war in Afghanistan.

[svinayak]

http://www.asianage.com/opinion/afghan-unravelling-596

The sudden publication of what is really old news about the trillion-dollar mineral reserves in Afghanistan is a new factor. Will the global war on terror, once described as unwinnable by President Barack Obama, now become a winnable war for resources? These are all heavy-investment and long-gestation projects that only the rich and powerful can manage. But there is no magic wand for instant riches and stability for Afghanistan’s poor. The fear is that Afghanistan, as the land bridge between Central Asia and the rest of Asia, will go further downhill amid increased violence among its various ethnic groups. A significant number of these forces would be provided by jihadi foot soldiers from Pakistan.
These reports, about the Pakistan Army’s control over the Taliban, the presence of its surrogates in Afghanistan along with reports of exploitable vital minerals in that country and the slowing down of the Kandahar and North Waziristan operations, could suggest there is a deal on the anvil. The West withdraws its fighting forces substantially, outsources security of its projects to private military contractors while exploiting minerals. Pakistan will have attained strategic depth and security through the Taliban and Haqqani networks.
It is sometimes forgotten that in the ultimate analysis, the Taliban are Pashtun who live on both sides of the Durand Line, and there has been an upsurge in anti-Pashtun violence in Balochistan, Karachi and Fata. It might not be long before there is an upsurge of the demand for a Greater Pushtunistan once the foreigner (and common enemy) has departed, and Pashtuns internalise their problems swept under the carpet by successive regimes. Pashtun assertiveness will almost certainly lead to retaliation from Afghanistan’s other ethnic groups. Religious obscurantism combined with ultra-nationalism can be a very explosive mix.
The future looks uncertain and violent unless there is an all-nations guarantee for Afghan neutrality and non-interference by other powers. It is a fair assumption that Mr Karzai’s Afghanistan is unravelling fast and no one really has any idea how to prevent this. The Saudi-Wahhabi and the Pakistan-military nexus, the latter’s nexus with Afghan drug lords, worth billions of dollars, appears to be picking up the pieces in a divided country.
The cure, if any, lies in Pakistan — where all Afghan-specific and India-specific insurgent/terrorist groups take shelter, receive support and now coalesce for Pakistan’s foreign policy objectives.

[brihaspati]

International support will gravitate towards the most likely to be "stable" or seen (rightly or wrongly) as going to be stable. Therefore, do not pin hopes on anti-Taleb elements to be really supported. Not any more the case of Talebs being bombed out.

India is not going to be helped along as and when the Talebjabi combine moves against Indian interests. We see a drumming up of campaigns to pin the "guilt" of India in in drawing "Islamist" violence on itself. This is the typical Islamist argument - non-Muslims are violently treated because they deserve it. In an ironic way, this Islamist argument has been adopted both in the West and in Indiaby non-Muslim guilt feelers - for in both societies, atrocities are somehow formally not supported in the religious values. Thus we see an increasing voice in both societies that claim that the attacks on the West and India or violent attitude towards non-Muslims of both societies from Islamists are somehow due to the "guilt" of non-Muslims themselves.

Islamists are however completely free of guilt in committing atrocities on non-Muslims - it is a core part of their religious belief. So they don't feel guilty at all, and think that whatever violence is heaped on other societies are deserved by those societies. This is a tremendous strategioc advantage.

This fundamental weakness is playing out fully in the AFPAK theatre, and has been playing out in India for a long long time. It may be difficult to modify the "guilt-ridden" faith systems, but at least a conditional reciprocity is absolutely necessary - at least for dealing with Islamists, there should not be any feeling of "guilt", for the Islamists themselves have no sense of "guilt". Only then will tactical and strategic decision-making in dealing with the AFPAK situation be clear.