Afghanistan News & Discussion

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 30 Jun 2010 09:37

Afghanistan Today: Karzai, Reconciliation, and Western Strategy

http://www.newamerica.net/events/2010/afghanistan_today

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 30 Jun 2010 11:53

India has legitimate interest in Afghanistan: Petraeus

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Indi ... 109288.cms

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 30 Jun 2010 13:27

abhishek_sharma wrote:India has legitimate interest in Afghanistan: Petraeus

Now, the Pakistanis, who already loathe Gen. Petraeus, would hate him even more.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 30 Jun 2010 19:56

Weren't people on this forum saying that Petraeus was too chummy with Kayani??

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 30 Jun 2010 20:46

abhishek_sharma wrote:India has legitimate interest in Afghanistan: Petraeus

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Indi ... 109288.cms

Boss, cut me some slack, as I only skimmed through that TOIlet piece, but where did he say that. The quote attributed to him is

"India has legitimate interests in this region,"

To me, it appears more of diplomatic dog bone thrown India's way than in any way seriously respecting India's interests.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 30 Jun 2010 21:07

CRamS wrote:
abhishek_sharma wrote:India has legitimate interest in Afghanistan: Petraeus

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Indi ... 109288.cms

"India has legitimate interests in this region,"

To me, it appears more of diplomatic dog bone thrown India's way than in any way seriously respecting India's interests.

There is an washington journal program with a US general talking about India being in Afghanistan and how it is sensitive. This balancing act of US is really fake. Afghanistan has long ties with India and nobody can take it away.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 30 Jun 2010 22:45

An Afghan trade route: What could possibly go wrong with that?

http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/po ... _with_that

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 30 Jun 2010 23:20

The Haqqanis and al-Qaeda

http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/20 ... d_al_qaeda

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 30 Jun 2010 23:27

Lets assume for the moment that in private, Obama & Co have assured us SDREs represented by MMS & Co that they do value India's role in Afghanistan, its civilizational linkage, they recognize that Afghans want us there, they detest TSP's paranoia, and above all there is absolutely no equivalence between TSP's diabolical game plan of making Afghanistan another terrorist cesspool as its back yard, and India's role, even if at an abstract level, it can be construed as "competing for influence", the overwhelming pejorative narrative in western media. Under this assumption, perhaps India's apparent silent acquiescence to TSPA's dominant role, and relegating itself to a bunch of girl scouts, could be a secret understanding between US and India, that India sit by silently for the moment, while USA works on TSP with the explicit assurance that TSP will not be allowed to re-create a terrorist proxy in Afghanistan from where it could mount terrorist attacks against India. Am I dreaming? As much as I know US elites detest SDREs and Hindu religion, and are wilfully pragmatic to the core in that any number of SDRE lives lot to TSP terrorists matter little to their conscience as long as their objectives are met, I cannot believe that they are so desparate to cut losses and leave the situation in Afganisthan exactly where it was prior to 9/11, in the hands of the barbaric Taliban and TSPA/ISI, even if the so called Al Queda is de-capacitated.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 30 Jun 2010 23:36

India has legitimate interest in Afghanistan: Petraeus

Can we take a hint that US is "thinking" to replace 'some' of troops of ISAF by troops from India? Or he is still in hangover!

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 01 Jul 2010 14:13

Taliban issues fresh threat to Indian workers

Ruling out possibility of talks with the Karzai regime or the occupation forces, the Taliban movement of Afghanistan has said that it would now also target the NGOs and other organisations that are spreading alien culture in the war-ravaged country and advancing their hidden agenda under the garb of development work.

“The operation commanders of the Islamic Emirate (as Taliban movement calls itself) are going to meet shortly to finalise a new war strategy under which the foreigners working on their national agendas, particularly Indians, will be targeted,” said Qari Ziaur Rehman, a Taliban commander, while talking to The News via telephone from an undisclosed location in Afghanistan.

The Taliban commander said when the erstwhile Soviet Union, which too claimed to be a superpower of its time, even vanished from the map of the world after invading Afghanistan despite sharing border with the country, how could the Americans and their allies return from Afghanistan as victors?

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 01 Jul 2010 15:26

MKB in todays DH takes a gloomy view of developments from Indian perspective...The burden of his argument, based on statement by Panetta is that Unkil knows all about Karzai-TSPA dialogue, will wash his hands off by handing over Afghan to TSP, that India will be left in cold with Iran angry, Russia not bothered, PRC still with TSP and so on...(actually he seems to have taken words right off one of my posts here, out of context of course)

He also feels the Talibs will decouple from Al-Q and Tsp will handover Bin-Laden just before elections in US as part of this grand bargain.

IMHO these are idiotic assumptions. How can TSP or TSPA rest in peace if they handover big Al-Q heads to Unkil? They have paid price in thousands even for much less 'crimes'...Are the ones sold down the river so innocent? And the ones favored in bargain so stupid that they dont know they too are bakras being fattened for another feast down the road?

Fact of the matter is TSPA seems caught between rock and hard place and is trying best to wriggle out. In the meantime, Unkil and his drones are taking out animal after animal, each such animal casualty enraging hordes of other animals that now know clearly who their enemy is - TSPA. This is on top of traditional anger against ISI/TSPA on the part of Afghans, including Talibans....all the collateral damage will add more ghee to fire..and if it goes on beyond July 11, the fat will truly be on fire..

Our babus push us deeper into ground while in power thru their idiocy and when they retire and don't get good postings, they suddenly become experts in everything and anything...

India can happily fish in this pond for years to come, if only our babus show some willingness...who knows in two years, India may be an angel compared to TSPA/ISI/Unkil! Our only fault after all is that we eat rice and worship idols...they can live with that..

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 01 Jul 2010 17:39

Suppiah wrote:He also feels the Talibs will decouple from Al-Q and Tsp will handover Bin-Laden just before elections in US as part of this grand bargain.

IMHO these are idiotic assumptions. How can TSP or TSPA rest in peace if they handover big Al-Q heads to Unkil?

Taliban will not divorce from Al Qaeda anymore. They are now more united than ever before. At least earlier, the Taleban just offered sanctuary and then turned a blind eye to what the Al Qaeda were up to. When the US demanded the Taleban to handover Osama, they refused to do so and set conditions for his trial. But, all that 'neutrality' changed subsequently. OBL and Mullah Omar cemented their relationship through swap marriages. Osama accepted Mullah Omar as the Caliph. The Taleban, Al Qaeda and the Pakistani warriors agreed that their salvation lay through a united front. All the theologians in Af-Pak border like Fazl-ur-Rehman, and Samiul-Haq agreed. They were ably supported by the Hamid Guls and Aslam Begs. The Haqqani-shura has played ball. The 'Invisible' hand of the Pakistani intelligence has ensured that protection was given to everybody. This unity has remained intact in spite of nine years of war. The myriad groups are far too intertwined and dependent on each other for a split, especially when they are on the ascent and victory seems well within grasp.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 01 Jul 2010 18:20

Yes and contrary to what MKB postulates, ISI's grand bargain with Unkil will not help TSP in any manner. After Unkil washes hands and goes home, Taliban will basically declare victory and go back to old ways. Just getting back to rule Afghan (or parts of it at best) will not satisfy them. They will be in the 'saari duniya maangenge' mood if that happens. First demand of course, is further purification of TSP and action on those that 'betrayed' them to Unkil - the civilian leadership, sections of military and parts of ISI itself...And if Unkil stays on in neighbourhood with bases and air strikes as MKB says, that makes situation even worse for those that unkil cannot protect with troops in the ground. Gilani, Zardari and all will be toasted at nearest lamp post..

I don't see why we are so worried about Taliban controlling TSP and TSP / Taliban combo controlling Afghan - it is not as if ISI/TSPA needs more money, space or resources to train terrorists against India, they have all of TSP to do that anyway...and yet pretend that they are saints and ==...we will be big beneficiaries of that because Intl community, Unkil et al now cannot anymore pretend that TSP is part of the solution, they have to know it is part of problem.

At the very worst, if all the grand bargain works and Unkil basically says you can do what you want to India, just leave us wasps alone, and Taliban/ISI/TSPA agrees and forgets all their mutual mistrust and years of backstabbing and dancing to Unkil tunes, where that does leave us? Exactly where we are today...we only have ourselves to protect ourselves..

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 01 Jul 2010 19:00

Suppiah wrote: At the very worst, if all the grand bargain works and Unkil basically says you can do what you want to India, just leave us wasps alone, and Taliban/ISI/TSPA agrees and forgets all their mutual mistrust and years of backstabbing and dancing to Unkil tunes, where that does leave us? Exactly where we are today...we only have ourselves to protect ourselves..

This is exactly the reason why India must have a foothold in Afghanistan. We are doing a great job in Afghanistan already,winning the PR war but Unkil wants to sell us out. Afghans WANT us there. UNAMA has significant number of Indians. I just want to see more Indians in ISAF.
We MUST make Afghanistan a NO TRESPASSING zone for Pakis and their ilk. The more Paki heartburn against our presence there,the better it would be for us in hastening their failure.

refer: http://www.thestatesman.net/index.php?o ... 7&catid=36

Majority of Afghans favour India: Survey
21 January 2010

NEW DELHI, 21 JAN: In the latest survey conducted in Afghanistan, India has good reason to smile. Not only is India viewed favourably by the majority of Afghans, Pakistan emerges as the least favourable nation with a mere 2 per cent rating. In response to a question on where the Afghan people were asked to rate different countries as very favourable to less favourable, India tops the list with a 29 per cent very favourable status, with Pakistan getting 2 per cent, the Taliban doing slightly better with 3 per cent, the USA getting 8 per cent followed by Great Britain which scored 7 per cent “very favourable” response.
The survey was conducted in the country’s 34 provinces in December last year. It is significant to note that another thing that emerges from the survey is the growing antipathy towards the Taliban. Ninety per cent said they wanted their country run by the current government, compared with 6 per cent who said they favoured a Taliban administration. This finding is a bit surprising given the accusations of rigging in the last polls. Sixty nine per cent believed the Taliban pose the greatest danger to Afghanistan, and 66 per cent blamed the Taliban, al Qaida and foreign militants for violence in Afghanistan. Another surprising finding is that the Afghan people rate economy/poverty/jobs as the country’s number one problem , followed closely by security/violence/warlords.

lsunil · Post by **lsunil** » 01 Jul 2010 20:28

Seriously, i do not understand what india is doing throwing all that money into afghanistan because everything we or the world does in that country is going to be undone eventually.

The americans are finished. They scouted afghanistan for almost 10 years and used up trillions of dollars and suffered numerous human casualties only to realise they the problem lies across the border, in pakistan. So now, after 10 years of war, do you think they will engage for another 10 years in a country that has nuclear weapons? The fact is, the americans lost. The people who played the games were not even in afghanistan and the irony is, the americans were in cahoots with these very same people which they have now come to realize.

Pakistan has played a great game. Let's agree to that. Like someone on this board said, one of the greatest asset of the paki diplomacy is that they make you feel that they are your friends.

======

On the indian security front after the americans withdraw with their tails between their legs... many believe that the pakistani's won't let another 9/11 happen. I strongly disagree. The pakistani elite and the taliban/al-qaeda co do not like each other. These fundoos are always plotting to take over pakistan while the elite forever tries to divert that aggression by raking up external security matters like india or shia or yahudi propaganda. If and when the americans leave, that action will deliver a massive boast to the fundoos to proceed to concur pakistan. The elite will have to try harder to keeps it's control in such an aftermath. They will have to increase the "external threat" propaganda which is already evident in current day pakistan. [They have done their homework very well] The elite will have it's own problems so forget about monitoring the fundoos.

America will have no choice but to argue that terrorism is the price to pay for living in modern or civilised worlds. India has learned to live with it. Unkils pride will make it harder for them to realize that fact.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 01 Jul 2010 20:33

If we seriously believe that TSP has 'won' this game, we have also seriously believe that TSP is now in a fantastic position, in terms of global image, economic status, internal peace and path to progress. It is in exactly opposite position. It is practically a failed state with serious trouble on practically all fronts. We simply pray that they do not realise the sh.t hole they are in go on digging...

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 01 Jul 2010 20:53

lsunil wrote: The americans are finished. They scouted afghanistan for almost 10 years and used up trillions of dollars and suffered numerous human casualties only to realise they the problem lies across the border, in pakistan. So now, after 10 years of war, do you think they will engage for another 10 years in a country that has nuclear weapons? The fact is, the americans lost. The people who played the games were not even in afghanistan and the irony is, the americans were in cahoots with these very same people which they have now come to realize.

Pakistan has played a great game. Let's agree to that. Like someone on this board said, one of the greatest asset of the paki diplomacy is that they make you feel that they are your friends

All is not lost for Americans. They dont have to make War on Pakistan to rescue Afghanistan and 1/3rd of Earths population. All they have to do is stop the flow of funds to PA and disband PA. Declare Pakistan a terrorist State and blockade the nation. IN can do it for free if they wish.
But,Its not gonna happen!

lsunil · Post by **lsunil** » 01 Jul 2010 20:58

Failed state is only an adjective, the definition for which is ambiguous or not definite and simply nonsensical. One of the reasons why i ask people to stay away from such adjectives.

Pakistan is a country which has nuclear weapons. It has more friends in it's neighbourhood than india. It can and has blackmailed the world for financial and military aid. It terrorises kashmir but still has the balls to drag india to the UN and it is india who is reluctant.

All that the ummah cares is that pakistan liquidate "india" even if it means it liquidates itself. But till india remains, you can be sure that the ummah will come forward for the pakistanis if unkil and the west don't.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Jul 2010 21:01

TSP game is allowed because it suits unkils interests. Its not like the TSP has any cards of its own. Its all borrowed cards from 3.5 friends.

Suppiah, MKB's article is a pointer to a potential "October Surprise" from the Obama Administration and need to think about it.

lsunil · Post by **lsunil** » 01 Jul 2010 21:40

ramana wrote:TSP game is allowed because it suits unkils interests. Its not like the TSP has any cards of its own. Its all borrowed cards from 3.5 friends.

You mean a collaboration between the two expansionists? It could be but is unkil prepared for collateral damage as it has become apparent? Trillions and continued military struggle for a decade. What has changed after 9/11? The fundoos are more determined. Unkil and co were probably plotting in the beginning but might be rethinking their strategy at this point. Unkil's homeland security depends on the elites ability to prevent the fundoos from functioning against the west. Elites survival depends on keeping the fundoos busy with india or among themselves.

After the americans exit, would unkil keep the elite intact in accordance with it's macro strategy at the expense of mumbai type attacks in US or possibly another 9/11?

Bhaskar · Post by **Bhaskar** » 01 Jul 2010 21:51

The more and more I read the news these days, the more I feel we have lost our battle for a greater role in Central Asia through the current Afghan War.
All we have done is wasted our own money on Afghanistan. We haven't gained any geopolitical value or importance. Sucking up to the United States isn't helping, MMS needs to understand that. Pakistan has outplayed us at this game. I think its time we ourselves need to take upon the role of being a regional power. If we find Taliban is a threat to our national security, we should enter Afghanistan, as an ISAF or not as an ISAF force, near the Afghanitan-Pakistan border.
I don't know why our leaders are waiting for being recognized by the US as a regional power.

Talking about Afghanistan, Canada is out by next year, US is finding an excuse to leave. Afghanistan would be infilitrated by Pakistani terrorists and the ISI as a safe haven to launch attacks against India from there, rather than Pakistan. Here is my question, What can India do to prevent this when US pulls out of Afghanistan?

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 01 Jul 2010 22:30

From someone who's sitting half a world away, if Af-Pak is destabilized, what's there to trouble them hain ji? After the US has ensured that its homeland will not be attacked, the more trouble that gets created far away is only going to keep the Af-Pak's nieghbours edgy.
India, China, Iran, CIS/Russia are all getting worried. Out of these, the Chinese and the Iranians have made peace with the Pakistani establishment. CIS / Russia have the Northern Alliance buffer in between.
India is the one that is going to face the brunt if Af-Pak implodes. And on top of this India is present in Afghanistan, that the ISI doesn't like one bit.

One reason why India or any of Af-Pak's neighbours haven't been involved is because the trouble makers are too busy killing each other off, and trying to make off with the loot within. Good that they are engaged.

Haresh · Post by **Haresh** » 01 Jul 2010 22:31

Something I think al you guys who are concerned about how AFG will affect India need to understand is that the west has basically lost the urge & skill to fight dirty.
I read sometime ago that those who consider the Russians to have been defeated by the Mujihadden are actually very mistaken.
I don't have the links to the articles I read but the main points were these:

1/ the mujahdeen were licking their wounds in Pak after having been totally beaten by ruthless Russian infantry tactics & gunships.

2/The game changer was western supply of sophisticated AA missles to the muj.
3/money from the moslem countries.

The situation is now totally different because Point 1/ is not happening.
Point 2 is still happening, however it is the west that is also contributing money to the resisitance via Pak, forgiving loans, economic aid etc.

The west cannot fight dirty, they have tied their own hands behind their backs with Human Rights laws and "touchy feely" hearts and minds nonsense.

What the west needs to do is confront Pak, Iran and any other islamic country aiding the taliban.
They need to:
1/Warn Pak to seal the border with AFG.
2/Stop all flights from Pak/others into EC/Nato airspace.
3/Deport all Pak citizens to pak/others from EC/Nato states
4/Ban all imports from Pak/others
5/Put all UK/EC/NATO born Paks that they will be stripped of citizenship & deported if they assist the taliban.
6/Encourage through all means possible the partition of Pak into smaller states.
7/Put Saudi on Warning notice with regards to pak nuclear weapons ie that they risk nuclear strikes.

Will any of the above ever happen???
No bloody chance. They have lost the will.
We all remember when British sailors were seized by Iran, their was no response.
No EU/Nato sanctions, Iranian goods were still on sale in the UK, Iranian aircraft were still landing in the UK.
The reality is that the UK/EU/USA are now "Commercial civilisations" nothing, not even long term national interests can get in the way of commerce.
They just do not have the will, a large moslem population in UK/EU means a huge electoral base and a huge internal security threat, that they would not dare to confront.

The will is fading:
http://www.arrse.co.uk/Forums/viewtopic/t=152382.html

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 01 Jul 2010 22:34

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/com ... 0105.story

We must crush the Taliban and Al Qaeda in a 'long war' in Afghanistan
Our policy chaos over Afghanistan shows that counter-terrorism's objectives are too limited to keep Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in safe hands, and its resources too inadequate to destroy the Taliban

America's Afghanistan policy is in chaos. Fear of another Vietnam is palpable, and our friends and adversaries worldwide sense it. NATO allies are lining up to depart the battlefield. Domestic political support is crumbling, all because of the utter incompetence of the war's management.
The Obama administration has changed military commanders in Afghanistan for the second time, and the top civilian hierarchy may also change. Afghan President Hamid Karzai is said to be negotiating with the enemy. Reportedly, billions of dollars, packed into suitcases or piled on pallets, have been flown out of Afghanistan, seriously challenging the American public's willingness to support war during a deep recession and posing the question of why all this conveniently portable financial assistance was necessary to begin with.But these controversies — personnel changes, weak Afghan leadership and corruption — distasteful as they are, are merely manifestations of the administration's flawed policy. The real problem is confusion about America's basic aims and how to achieve them.

John R. Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of "Surrender Is Not an Option."
Copyright © 2010, The Los Angeles Times

lsunil · Post by **lsunil** » 01 Jul 2010 22:37

Bhaskar wrote:The more and more I read the news these days, the more I feel we have lost our battle for a greater role in Central Asia through the current Afghan War.

The afghan situation was hopeless from the beginning. The US, compelled with pride of being a military super power, thought it could break a few pack of cavemen by teaming up with the very same people that provide sustenance to them.

Bhaskar wrote:What can India do to prevent this when US pulls out of Afghanistan?

Not much is going to change after the american pull out. The taliban are going to take over afghanistan just like it was before 9/11 and what was the security situation of india before 9/11?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Jul 2010 23:01

So Haresh, The EU nations have become commercial civilizations like Indian kingdoms of the pre-Islamic centuries!

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 01 Jul 2010 23:10

ramana wrote:So Haresh, The EU nations have become commercial civilizations like Indian kingdoms of the pre-Islamic centuries!

Except the fact that the barbaric hordes are already in the EU nations, cancerously gnawing away from within, safely protected by the very laws that they are seeking to subvert and replace by the sharia.

Foolish EU nations.

They are now building walls after their gates have already been breached.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 01 Jul 2010 23:19

I would ask a different question. What it Afghanistan's value proposition to US/NATO? Is it bigger than TSPA's?

US/NATO supported and supplied Afghanistan-Jihad I only to harass USSR and deny it peaceful foothold in that region.

IMO, they would do all Haresh said when US/UK/NATO loses TSP as their client state and are desperate to have Afghanistan as TSP replacement. Will this happen as long as TSP exists?

Afghanistan's war ends when TSP ceases to exist.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 01 Jul 2010 23:23

After 911, the US probably thought that they'll deal with the problem piecemeal. They'll deal with the Al qauida chaps in afghanistan, and maybe leave the taliban alone. They'll deal with pakistan when they've dealt with al quaida.

Pakistan saw that bad things would happen to it eventually if the US ever finished with the Al Qaida guys in Afghanistan. So its only option was to ensure that the US got so mired up in Afghanistan that it would not have the stamina to go after the Pakistanis. They have been saying from day 1 that when body bags start to arrive in the US homeland, support for the war will diminish, and it seems that they are being proven correct.

That has been a pretty successful strategy, basically because there is no end to the amount of cannon fodder jihadis that Pakistan can churn out. The US and its forces will get tired of killing, but pakistan has ensured that there is sufficient hatered being created within Pakistan against the US so that there is an endless supply of Jihadis.

The US seems to have given up at some levels. They are actually paying off the Pakistanis to ensure that there is no attack on the US mainland! All this baksheesh to the Pakistani generals amounts to this.

I believe that the US will bounce back. If BHO doesn't become a hawk, he will be followed by a true hawk, that'll put an end to the nonsense that is going on in Af-Pak. The US will be desperate enough then.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 01 Jul 2010 23:29

lsunil wrote: The more and more I read the news these days, the more I feel we have lost our battle for a greater role in Central Asia through the current Afghan War.

The afghan situation was hopeless from the beginning.

Not much is going to change after the american pull out. The taliban are going to take over afghanistan just like it was before 9/11 and what was the security situation of india before 9/11?

What changed after 911. The most important change after 911 was that Pakistan became part of the War on terror and became an overt actor working for US. Before that all the things were being done covert.

Being overt exposed every country including US in the region. India by being passive for so long has lost significantly.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 01 Jul 2010 23:40

CRamS wrote:
To me, it appears more of diplomatic dog bone thrown India's way than in any way seriously respecting India's interests.

Took the very words out of my mouth, saar.

The obama administration has been belatedly advised to wine, dine and fête the Indians. For a few crumbs the Indian politicos will tamely surrender their legitimate interests in afghanistan.

A sit down dinner with real china crockery gets most of our old politicos rocks off, especially if attended by the POTUS. They are so bedazzled that these politico blighters often forget to pinch the cutlery thereby doubly benefiting the US.

The general has simply thrown us a mere bone and also got it officially entered in the congressional records. It will not translate into any meaningful action on the part of the US.

lsunil · Post by **lsunil** » 01 Jul 2010 23:43

How will the US bounce back? If the americans want to stabilize afghanistan then they'll have to strike at the PA and the elite. But what prevents the americans from hitting the bullseye is what i do not understand.

Only two possible reasons i can think of:
1) Long term american strategy wrt to handling india going back before 9/11
2) The americans think that they can get the elite to prevent the fundoos from launching an attack on US home land.

But the paki state itself cannot prevent any attacks on itself then how can it prevent attacks on US soil? Plus with the americans gone, the fundoos will aim for a regime takeover from the elite.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 01 Jul 2010 23:49

RamaY wrote: IMO, they would do all Haresh said when US/UK/NATO loses TSP as their client state and are desperate to have Afghanistan as TSP replacement. Will this happen as long as TSP exists?

Afghanistan's war ends when TSP ceases to exist.

The amrekis need the paki army and not the paki state. Since the paki army already comes with it's own built in state, the amrekis have reluctantly accommodated the paki state.

afghanistan will never replace pakiland because the afghans simply do not have a usable army, not by a long shot.

The Indian Army is just not available to the US in the same way the paki army has prostituted itself to the US and their interests.

If TSP ceases to exist , so will afghanistan.

Pulikeshi · Post by **Pulikeshi** » 02 Jul 2010 00:07

It seems the US goals, both short and long term is somewhat unclear vis-a-vis Af-Pak.
Perhaps it is intentional, but perhaps not.

It should surprise no one in India that Pak is gaining a role as India gets back to path of economic prosperity.
In not highlighting the nuclear cooperation between China and Pak, the US is aligning with China.
This will be seen as a signal to Pak that China will take on a larger role as a principal if US were to disengage in the future.
If Af problem is fixed, Pak ceases to exist as a state
So, do not expect the Af problem to the solved, as solving it would mean a diminished role for US and a more prominent role for China.

Current direction, in all this net-net:

1. US comes out not gaining much
2. China comes out gaining a lot of resources and increased influence in the region
3. India loses most - lot of good will but no cigar
4. Pak - remains and has found sufficient suitors to remain a client state forever
5. Af - Never on the winning side in all their history, even when they won!

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 02 Jul 2010 00:58

What would be the case if/when India asserts its interests in Afghanistan and sends say 50,000 Army to Kabul? Can it be a game changer?

satyam · Post by **satyam** » 02 Jul 2010 01:20

RamaY wrote:What would be the case if/when India asserts its interests in Afghanistan and sends say 50,000 Army to Kabul? Can it be a game changer?

Who will provide the ration and weapon? And what is the path?

Haresh · Post by **Haresh** » 02 Jul 2010 01:22

Do any of you guys think it would be viable for India to assist the Northern Alliance to setup it's own state within AFG and maintain bases within that new state?
The new state could be used to drain any Taliban/Pak state??

satyam · Post by **satyam** » 02 Jul 2010 01:26

Haresh wrote:Do any of you guys think it would be viable for India to assist the Northern Alliance to setup it's own state within AFG and maintain bases within that new state?
The new state could be used to drain any Taliban/Pak state??

The main problem with India is that it is not connected to Afghanistan. So it will be on the mercy of other country in Afghanistan as Afghanistan is a land-locked country.

lsunil · Post by **lsunil** » 02 Jul 2010 01:37

All that the foreign presence is doing is uniting the fundoos. Instead, we need to empower the afghans to fend for themselves. Bring 50,000 afghans to india and train them in military services. Get the coalitions around the world to do the same. Within a year, you can send around 300,000 afghans back home to their country.

Though, unkil isn't interested in rebuilding the country. He wants OBL. For the price of the kings head, it has spent how many trillions? But it seems that unkil got played for years. He will be returning home without OBL plus he has pissed off so many in the region that an attack on US soil is imminent. The elite(isi+govt+pa) and the fundoos do collaborate for the sake of islam but the elite cannot prevent every attack on the US.