India-Russia: News & Analysis

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Aditya_V » 15 Dec 2014 11:15

Austin wrote:The Ukraine crises does not cause a blink in Indian FP much as US Invasion of Iraq did.

So all this talk of cut business deal with India by West and Ukraine is hypocritical.

They should first stop buying all Gas and Oil from Russia , stop all trade and then tell India to follow and that too if it wishes too.

Did US or EU or Ukraine tell China not to get into Big Business Deal with Russia when they signed hundred billion dollar Gas deal recently.

So India is weak so they should pressurise India more


They should first work with China, GCC and get Pakis denuked, separate Baluchistan, handover POk to India and then talk to us.

Currently they are doing the opposite and funding every wet dream.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Philip » 15 Dec 2014 19:28

The UKS squeak of protest is the joke of the year,so desperate it is upon Russian energy ,while it still owes Russia billions! The Crimea "takeover' is the century's most spectacular redrawal of borders,with the least amt. of bloodshed too,practically nil!

The Indo-Russian summit,so much achieved within 24 hrs. is a message to the world,that when best friends meet,there is little or no misunderstanding and need for hype. The swiftness of the deals also shows the brilliant back-office work done by the diplomats,esp the Russian ambassador,an Indian veteran,and Mr.Modi ,kudos to those on both sides.

Looking at the content,the deal for 12-20 N-reactors is a smash hit,the most important deal of the lot. The western entities who have fond hopes of selling us their plants,will no have to meet our stringent Liability laws,otherwise....! The various defence deals will slowly show their faces,hints at more N-subs have come in the aftermath of the visit,and the "make in India" helo deal is another landmark deal after BMos.Incidentally,I'm enjoying Dr.Pillai's excellent book on the same. A must read to understand the intense relationship between scientists of both nations and the enormous effort in making the JV a stupendous success.

The US dismay should be simply shrugged off.India is not a vassal state of the US,not an ally,a "Gunga Din" by any means. Those Yanquis in the US establishment who are high on "substance" might fondly dream the same,but the snake-oil mendicant has been unceremoniously dumped into history's "landfill",and the US must come up with deals of "substance" treating India as an equal partner,not as a White House butler,or deputy to police the IOR/Indo-China Sea to ward off slant-eyed "pirates". In fact the US displeasure at the Indo-Russian enduring relationship exposes its hypocrisy and "friendship".

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 16 Dec 2014 11:02

Russia Invests $500 Million in Indian Hydro Power
NEW DELHI, December 10, (Reuters) - The Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) will team up with an Indian partner to invest $1 billion in hydroelectric projects in Asia's third-largest economy, the head of the Russian state fund said Wednesday.

The RDIF and India's IDFC, a leading infrastructure investor, will each commit $500 million to projects under a deal to be signed on Thursday during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to overcome India's chronic power shortages, and the country has vast untapped hydroelectric potential in its northern Himalayan belt.

RDIF head Kirill Dmitriev told Reuters that the investments would back projects involving a large Russian hydro-power company but he declined to name the company.

The only large Russian player in this area is state-controlled RusHydro. RusHydro's spokeswoman Yelena Vishnyakova could not immediately be reached by for comment.

IDFC, which is 16 percent state owned, confirmed it would sign a partnership with RDIF but declined to comment on the details.

The Russian fund was set up in 2011 with $10 billion in state funds. It can back investments as long as its partners match it at least dollar for dollar. Dmitriev said he expected to commit funds to the Indian projects next year.

The RDIF has so far invested $1.3 billion of its own money along with $6 billion by outside investors, mainly sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East and Asia.

Dmitriev said the RDIF had managed to turn profits on investments in a Russian telecoms company and the Moscow stock exchange despite Western sanctions, a slowing economy and sliding oil prices.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby khan » 17 Dec 2014 02:50

Russian Rouble has dropped 10% last night after the Central Bank raised rates from 10% to 17% in the middle of the night (quite literally). The rouble has lost more than half it's value in 2014.

Russian economy is in the toilet. They do have ~$300 billion in reserves which should last them a couple of years. Unless they bail out industry (private and state owned) like they did with Rosneft yesterday - in which case the reserves will run out a lot sooner. Trying to stabilize the Rouble by selling hard currency will also burn up reserves.

This is a country that imports most of its food. When they run out of reserves, everything will be for sale like it was in the 1990's.

The sorry state of the Russian economy isn't getting enough attention on these August forums.

The Russian economy is going to be the most significant driver of Indo-Russian relations going forward. If we play our cards right, we could use their desperation to get tech, equipment and concessions at throwaway prices. If we play our cards wrong, Russian technology that has so far been denied to China and Pakistan will proliferate.

Either way, all these nice agreements signed with Putin won't be worth much. We need to realize that dealing with the Russians is like dealing with an organized crime syndicate. It is ok deal with people like that so long as we do it with our eyes wide open.

Hope you enjoyed my rant.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Cosmo_R » 17 Dec 2014 03:00

Austin wrote:The Ukraine crises does not cause a blink in Indian FP much as US Invasion of Iraq did.

So all this talk of cut business deal with India by West and Ukraine is hypocritical.

They should first stop buying all Gas and Oil from Russia , stop all trade and then tell India to follow and that too if it wishes too.

Did US or EU or Ukraine tell China not to get into Big Business Deal with Russia when they signed hundred billion dollar Gas deal recently.

So India is weak so they should pressurise India more


Austin, if you're referring to Jen Psaki's comments in the press conference, regarding Russia, you must take into account that she is responding to questions and she has to be very careful. On the one hand, she does not want to hand cold war types an excuse to paint India and to blast Obama. And on the other hand, not in any way set off a furor in India by seeming too concerned about Putin and the deals.

What Putin's visit and deals will do is up the ante for GoI. The WH will really negotiate hard on the nuke liability, defense and clean energy to be seen to be outdoing Putin.

If there is an agreement on the nuke liability, Obama is going declare the floodgates are open for GE and Bechtel et al.

If Putin's visit had big deals, Obama's must be bigger and be seen to be so. It's actually quite good for us.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby disha » 17 Dec 2014 03:05

="khan"

Either way, all these nice agreements signed with Putin won't be worth much. We need to realize that dealing with the Russians is like dealing with an organized crime syndicate. It is ok deal with people like that so long as we do it with our eyes wide open.

Hope you enjoyed my rant.


Not to worry., India will sell bananas to russia and import diamonds. It will be interesting to see how the west can lock themselves up behind an iron curtain this time.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Shanmukh » 17 Dec 2014 03:12

The best way for Russia to hit back is by smuggling 20 million Pakistanis/Afghans/West Asians into Eastern Europe. Let them loose in Poland, Romania and Sweden, not to mention the Baltic states and watch the fun. Within a generation, the East Europeans will be whining for the armies of the Tsar ......

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby RajeshA » 17 Dec 2014 03:13

nageshks wrote:The best way for Russia to hit back is by smuggling 20 million Pakistanis/Afghans/West Asians into Eastern Europe. Let them loose in Poland, Romania and Sweden, not to mention the Baltic states and watch the fun. Within a generation, the East Europeans will be whining for the armies of the Tsar ......

:rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby KLNMurthy » 17 Dec 2014 03:16

nageshks wrote:The best way for Russia to hit back is by smuggling 20 million Pakistanis/Afghans/West Asians into Eastern Europe. Let them loose in Poland, Romania and Sweden, not to mention the Baltic states and watch the fun. Within a generation, the East Europeans will be whining for the armies of the Tsar ......

:rotfl:

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Cosmo_R » 17 Dec 2014 04:55

The best way for Russia to get back is to help us a lot more with SSBNs

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Shanmukh » 17 Dec 2014 05:02

Cosmo_R wrote:The best way for Russia to get back is to help us a lot more with SSBNs


Helping us get more SSBNs and smuggling in Afghans/Pakistanis into Europe are not mutually exclusive. In fact, it is a win-win situation. Russia gets money both from us and from the Afghans/Pakistanis and Europe gets levelled into the ground. Given the fertility rate of the Islamic immigrants, one would expect Poland to be flattened within a generation. I would like to see Brzezhinski's face when the Poles end up in the ghetto of Warsaw with Muslims ruling the roost. Wonder if there will be a new Wola massacre .....

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Cosmo_R » 17 Dec 2014 05:06

nageshks wrote:
Cosmo_R wrote:The best way for Russia to get back is to help us a lot more with SSBNs


Helping us get more SSBNs and smuggling in Afghans/Pakistanis into Europe are not mutually exclusive. ...


So let's put the SSBNs first

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 17 Dec 2014 11:56

Cosmo_R wrote:If Putin's visit had big deals, Obama's must be bigger and be seen to be so. It's actually quite good for us.


Agreed but lets see if Obama can get over NPA and get us over the Nuclear Liability Bill.

Actually its not a big deal its just a business decision , If the Russians can do it I am sure the French and US can too , its just that the cost of per reactor will be 2-2.5x times more which India is willing to pay.

The Nuclear Liability Bill is just a political football played between Delli and US but business wise it is quite doable.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Tuvaluan » 17 Dec 2014 12:09

Actually its not a big deal its just a business decision , If the Russians can do it I am sure the French and US can too , its just that the cost of per reactor will be 2-2.5x times more which India is willing to pay.


May just be a business decision with the french, and mostly the liability law passed by the Indian parliament. Perhaps you are already aware, but the US has certain clauses in the version of the 123 deal that passed in the senate that is markedly different from the deal signed with India, and these items were written by none other than the current POTUS Obama who was a senator at that time. The US version includes various arms control/non proliferation language (similar in intent to the CTBT) after the deal was signed with India, and only Obama/POTUS/executive can roll back these clauses in the 123 deal.

so India has basically signed onto a piece of scrap that was rewritten by the US congress/senate after it was signed by India. OTOH, the exact same 123 agreements signed with France and Russia do not include that non proliferation language. So I really doubt India will be doing any nuclear business with the USA (or Canada) any time soon.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 17 Dec 2014 12:11

nageshks wrote:Helping us get more SSBNs and smuggling in Afghans/Pakistanis into Europe are not mutually exclusive. In fact, it is a win-win situation. Russia gets money both from us and from the Afghans/Pakistanis and Europe gets levelled into the ground. Given the fertility rate of the Islamic immigrants, one would expect Poland to be flattened within a generation. I would like to see Brzezhinski's face when the Poles end up in the ghetto of Warsaw with Muslims ruling the roost. Wonder if there will be a new Wola massacre .....


Evil Mind :twisted: :lol:

The Islamist are already growing in EU the seeds are sown , EU are already down to secular .....Too Scared to even Celebrate Christmas in order not to hurt sentiments :lol:

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 17 Dec 2014 12:15

Tuvaluan wrote: and these items were written by none other than the current POTUS Obama who was a senator at that time. The US version includes various arms control/non proliferation language (similar in intent to the CTBT) after the deal was signed with India, and only Obama/POTUS/executive can roll back these clauses in the 123 deal.

so India has basically signed onto a piece of scrap that was rewritten by the US congress/senate after it was signed by India. OTOH, the exact same 123 agreements signed with France and Russia do not include that non proliferation language. So I really doubt India will be doing any nuclear business with the USA (or Canada) any time soon.


If they added NPL , CTBT language etc in the 123 Agreement then its US internal decision or politics and India cannot be blamed for it.

While on the other hand French and Russias dont have those clause then we can do business with them if they accept our Nuclear Liability Clause.

If Business Drives the decision and we need xx reactor then the seller has to accommodate and in this case buyer has other options.

Hopefully POTUS is driven by business and less by politics specially when we have a clean record with proliferation

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Yagnasri » 17 Dec 2014 12:18

Eurabia is slowly progressing into a dark continent. Whites are agitating even in Germany, but the ruling elite failing to understand the dangers of peaceful religion. Lukily for 3rd Rome (Russia) Putin is someone who seems to have understood the risk. Delinking of Russia from EU and Russia looking into Asia is a very good thing in long term.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 17 Dec 2014 12:54

Yagnasri wrote:Eurabia is slowly progressing into a dark continent. Whites are agitating even in Germany, but the ruling elite failing to understand the dangers of peaceful religion. Lukily for 3rd Rome (Russia) Putin is someone who seems to have understood the risk. Delinking of Russia from EU and Russia looking into Asia is a very good thing in long term.


True , Putin said that he would support Traditional Values something for which he has received strong support from Orthodox Church.

The West mounted a strong campaign against him few months before Sochi and during Sochi on LGBT issue even though LGBT is not a crime there and only Minors are not to be infulenced by it , compare that being Gay might get you in long term prison or killed in Gelf nation and West wont speak a word on it , I think the exception being Iran where if you are a Gay you are given an option to change your sex and governement funds it.

I wont be surprised 15 years from now EU would be more proud of Mohammed then Jesus :roll:

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby JE Menon » 17 Dec 2014 13:16

>>Eurabia is slowly progressing into a dark continent. Whites are agitating even in Germany, but the ruling elite failing to understand the dangers of peaceful religion.

It is not that they are failing to understand. They understand quite well. It is the reluctance to name the beast. Because if they name the beast, then they have to describe it; if they describe it, they will have to explain how to deal with it because that will mean the difference between vote or not; if they explain how to deal with it, this will mean a return to the 11-13 centuries, with the exception being that it will not be Christianity they bring to the Middle East, but secularism. It will also mean a different kind of war, because this time the beast is amongst them too. So, they will not name the beast, and pretend it is a herbivore, so long as it is not biting them directly.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Shreeman » 17 Dec 2014 14:40

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30510969

Verrrry inteyressting. As they would say. Bringing out all the big guns in peak winter. Quid? Why the desperation?

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby arshyam » 17 Dec 2014 22:27

Austin wrote:Hopefully POTUS is driven by business and less by politics specially when we have a clean record with proliferation

Sir, that's a very very big if. Especially since Obama is now a lame duck, he won't be able to promise anything that we can take seriously. We should nod our heads to whatever he says, but wait till the next president takes over.

OTOH, Putin is not going anywhere anytime soon. We can either believe the western propaganda (as some have posted earlier about his being a dictator, economy in doldrums, etc.) or read the situation for what it is (Russia having a huge energy potential) and work to a mutual benefit. So far, NaMo's approach has been the latter. Let's see.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Shreeman » 17 Dec 2014 23:14

arshyam wrote:
Austin wrote:Hopefully POTUS is driven by business and less by politics specially when we have a clean record with proliferation

Sir, that's a very very big if. Especially since Obama is now a lame duck, he won't be able to promise anything that we can take seriously. We should nod our heads to whatever he says, but wait till the next president takes over.

OTOH, Putin is not going anywhere anytime soon. We can either believe the western propaganda (as some have posted earlier about his being a dictator, economy in doldrums, etc.) or read the situation for what it is (Russia having a huge energy potential) and work to a mutual benefit. So far, NaMo's approach has been the latter. Let's see.


Events are *fast* moving. Strange things might happen even in lame duckery and hercules world.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby member_28722 » 18 Dec 2014 02:52

Sir, that's a very very big if. Especially since Obama is now a lame duck, he won't be able to promise anything that we can take seriously. We should nod our heads to whatever he says, but wait till the next president takes over.

A lame duck who still managed to make to push through one of the most impacting US laws of this century.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby arshyam » 18 Dec 2014 02:55

^^ Just curious, what law was that?

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Raj » 18 Dec 2014 03:10

nageshks wrote:
Cosmo_R wrote:The best way for Russia to get back is to help us a lot more with SSBNs


Helping us get more SSBNs and smuggling in Afghans/Pakistanis into Europe are not mutually exclusive. In fact, it is a win-win situation. Russia gets money both from us and from the Afghans/Pakistanis and Europe gets levelled into the ground. Given the fertility rate of the Islamic immigrants, one would expect Poland to be flattened within a generation. I would like to see Brzezhinski's face when the Poles end up in the ghetto of Warsaw with Muslims ruling the roost. Wonder if there will be a new Wola massacre .....


Nagesh,
Per this wiki page the total number of Muslims in Poland is 31,000. Not sure how within a generation these number flatten Poland.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Poland

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby member_28722 » 18 Dec 2014 03:32

arshyam wrote:^^ Just curious, what law was that?

Immigration
Healthcare
Take your pick

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby arshyam » 18 Dec 2014 03:53

(My last OT.)
Really? Healthcare was passed way back in 2010 when the dems controlled both houses. Even after the congress went republican, the senate was still controlled by dems. So, no lame duck here.

And what immigration law has been passed so far? All Obama did was to issue an executive action because the law wouldn't be passed by a Congress he/dems do not control anymore. An executive action is not a law, btw.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Prem » 18 Dec 2014 03:57

nageshks wrote:The best way for Russia to hit back is by smuggling 20 million Pakistanis/Afghans/West Asians into Eastern Europe. Let them loose in Poland, Romania and Sweden, not to mention the Baltic states and watch the fun. Within a generation, the East Europeans will be whining for the armies of the Tsar ......

IMHO, Chemical, Biological ,lahoresmelling, Dumbingdown Donkeastra weapons are prohibited in this warfare as crime against humanity.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Frederic » 18 Dec 2014 04:16

Austin wrote:True , Putin said that he would support Traditional Values something for which he has received strong support from Orthodox Church.

The West mounted a strong campaign against him few months before Sochi and during Sochi on LGBT issue even though LGBT is not a crime there and only Minors are not to be infulenced by it , compare that being Gay might get you in long term prison or killed in Gelf nation and West wont speak a word on it , I think the exception being Iran where if you are a Gay you are given an option to change your sex and governement funds it.




True dat! I hear sob stories on crimes against LGBT community in Rossland day in and day out on NPR. Someone (believe CRamS) said that all US media, when it comes to foreign policy, are essentially Foggy Bottom mouthpieces.

As a tangent, controlling the social narrative from a western point of view and extracting pressure points to be applied against other sovereign nations is becoming sickeningly obvious.

One of the pressure points being the ubiquitous plight of the LGBT community. I see the desi media pimps picking up on this theme slowly.

The other two favourites being rapes and the modern day slavery. Anyway OT.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Tuvaluan » 18 Dec 2014 04:30

Obama would have to roll back all non prol clauses he wrote into in the Indo-US 123 treaty before India will buy anything from the USA -- simply no chance that India will purchase plants that can be shutdown on a whim by the US if India does not toe the US line on foreign policy. This ashton carter becoming defense secretary may involve other weapons/defence related deals, but nothing involving civilian nuclear plants. The oiseaules in the US and canadian nuclear establishment still have a desire to bury a knife in India's back if it does not toe their non-proliferation line. The nuclear liability law won't be rolled back as long as the US has all the obama clauses in the 123 is my hunch.

Russia and France are more likely to get started in constructing their plants in India before the US gets to do so -- westinghouse nuclear power subsidiary is owned by Toshiba/Japan, and the Japanese are being allowed in infrastructure development and anyway they play second fiddle to the US when it comes to nuclear matters.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Shreeman » 18 Dec 2014 05:55

Events are quite fast moving, dizzying break neck speed. I wake up every few hours (as I am prone to do), and find a few more lines crossed in public. This is already beyond the great game scope. There used to be a great game thread here, and a relatively sophisticated brain trust thgat understood fallout options of various outcomes. Can that be revived?

No russia is not good for India by any means.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby sudarshan » 18 Dec 2014 06:57

Realistically speaking, how bad is this tanking Ruble for Russia? Is it only tanking against the dollar, or other currencies as well (sorry if that q sounds naive - I don't really understand all this "fully convertible" or "partially convertible" business)?

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Roperia » 18 Dec 2014 07:40

Sanctions are REALLY hurting Russian economy. I was reading that Obama was getting ready to sign another set of stringent sanctions and aid for Ukraine.

Image
Last edited by Roperia on 18 Dec 2014 07:42, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Shreeman » 18 Dec 2014 07:41

Russian currency is floated. It will sell at price people (banks mainly as big buyers) will pay for it. In return the wholesalers (banks) assume steady supply and buy/sell at rate their retail customers are asking for instead of worrying about hoarding any one currency.

A floating currency is a sign of integration into global economy. However, this is not currency manipulation. It is possible there might be a run on the banks -- people rushing to get thgeir money back, in US dollars or euros.

But the currency issue itself is at best a symptom of the bigger malaise, and under normal circumstances propaganda russia might withstand.

This is not about ruble. Thius is likely about a direct us/NATO vs Russia conflict. Or getting there. Just a matter of who sneezes first.

As far as I can tell the US is confident that russia is nude. And with economic pressure and sustained conflict on western boundaries results beyond regime change are possible.

This solves syria, iran, the rest of the great game puzzles.

And its moving a bit faster than normal chess. Now if North Korea can hold a card or two close to ijts chest, may be Russia does too. But it will be quite painful for every Russian in the near term. And for many who are integrated in Russian ecosystem, be it defence or commerce.

There are hourly developments -- a company pulling its people out here, a country refusing to buy/sell ruble there. This is extraordinary to say the least. And the mnedia will do its best to show kosovo style runs on stores/banks in the coming days.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 18 Dec 2014 10:15

sudarshan wrote:Realistically speaking, how bad is this tanking Ruble for Russia? Is it only tanking against the dollar, or other currencies as well (sorry if that q sounds naive - I don't really understand all this "fully convertible" or "partially convertible" business)?


Citizen are allowed to convert currency from Rouble to USD/Euro without any restrictions but they need two bank accounts to do so is what a Russian collegue told me.

Beyond that they also have free movement of capital which is no restrictions in movement of capital inside and outside the country which causes large FDI outflows.

I am not sure how wise it would be to have full convertible and free movement of capital in difficult times considering even countries like China or India or any one in BRICS dont have such freedom may be Suraj can explain but the Central Bank made it clear many times that they wont go to capital control or restrict free capital account convertibility

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 18 Dec 2014 10:33

Shreeman wrote:But the currency issue itself is at best a symptom of the bigger malaise, and under normal circumstances propaganda russia might withstand.

This is not about ruble. Thius is likely about a direct us/NATO vs Russia conflict. Or getting there. Just a matter of who sneezes first.

As far as I can tell the US is confident that russia is nude. And with economic pressure and sustained conflict on western boundaries results beyond regime change are possible.

This solves syria, iran, the rest of the great game puzzles.

And its moving a bit faster than normal chess. Now if North Korea can hold a card or two close to ijts chest, may be Russia does too. But it will be quite painful for every Russian in the near term. And for many who are integrated in Russian ecosystem, be it defence or commerce.

There are hourly developments -- a company pulling its people out here, a country refusing to buy/sell ruble there. This is extraordinary to say the least. And the mnedia will do its best to show kosovo style runs on stores/banks in the coming days.



The goal of Western Nation is to change Russian Policy more favourable to Western actions.

The crises did not start with Crimea but was always there since many years.......Note the harsh stance on LGBT during Sochi where they manage to even sabotage the Olympics and overwhelmed it with LGBT news when I can say many countries in the world including all the Islamic States and even India has stricter laws on LGBT then Russia .......The only Saving Grace for Russians was they manage to win most Gold

Just last week BBC carried a documentary on Doping Scandal and it seems the Goal is to put the Olympics in bad light or in some kind of doubt although no Russian athelete has been caught with doping in the mandatory test they conduct on all athelete.


If Russia has to maintain an Independent Foreign Policy then it has to pay a Price because the current Economic/Geo-Political situation is built around western model and mostly US , Even Western Allies are not spared when they go against US policy like US Attack on Iraq where those who opposed it were called Old Europe.

I feel Russian would be more respected world over if they maintain an independent foreign policy thats not a Haanji for Western Goals , even though in some cases both West and Russia/Chinese/Indians do co-operate like the Iran Nuclear Issue.


Its a Black and White thing for West coz every thing they do would be for the Good of the World and bring in Greater Stability ...and every thing others does that is not in tune with their Goal would be bad.

Russia faces more brunt because it has UN Veto which means West is forced to act unilaterally and not under UN mandate if Russia vetos it like it did in Syrian crisis that makes them more furious as their policy which eventually fails shows them in bad light count Libya , Iraq , Afghanistan , Sirya....

Now the current economic problem would mean Russian would have to use their own resource or will have to depend on Loans from asian market ........Again the Saving Grace for Russians is West is not the only place where they can get loan and Western and US Economy is in doldrums no one knows when the next 2008 crisis will Hit them because they never fixed them.

Its probably good time for Russia because the notion that EU is an independent Nation and will have mutual economic dependencies has failed and is a wake up call for Russian Leadership.

The Russian People are too watching it and many Russians I have spoken too have no love lost for the West and indeed all independent polls shows Russians think West is pressurising them to meet their FP goals.

They should have changed the economic model post 2008 crises when Rouble failed but they didnt but as they say No One Changes Unless they are Forced to Change........The Forced part would be the Ukraine Crises and Economic Sanctions they would have a hardlook and all the sound bites do indicate that Russian Leadership thinks the sanction would go on for Long and they will have to change to a model that serves them well.

The West is also not happy with things like BRICS Bank or Recently Chinese Initiative to start Development Bank in Asia all sounds bite about them in western MSM is negitive or West using its Institution like Credit Rating Agency for Geo-Political Goals ....they were even used against India just a year back and now used against Russia.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Shreeman » 18 Dec 2014 12:16

Austin,

Way too many assumptions. The goal is not favorable russia, it is *no* russia at all.

India is nearly impossible to rattle due to its sheer lethargy and millenia of integrating invaders -- cultural and military. There are no direct parallels with "big power" russia.

but this is a different game. Putin/ Russia has been many steps behind understanding how far the NATO will go and what tools it will use to win this new great game.

You too think along the lines of "people forget russia has x,000 weapons". I see every evidence of utter confidence that whatever is known to the west about russia's abilities will not help it one bit from dramatically altering the geopolitics of the great game countries+middle east+russia.

so much so they are not going to wait for a spring offensive ala taliban. This needs proper documentation.
It is a profound change from how nation states have been undermined in the past. You cant be doing this unless you are sure the opposition has no cards at all to play but invite north koreans to visit. And they might not last this one either!

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Neshant » 18 Dec 2014 13:21

For the most part, Russia is self sufficient and this is about the most that can be done to harm it.

Now here's a question, why doesn't the BRICS bank start buying up roubles?

That will halt the fall in the currency if for no other reason than BRICS represent 40% of the world.

If nothing else, its a propaganda coup for BRICS which otherwise ends up as a meaningless acronym.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Shanmukh » 18 Dec 2014 13:37

The most important question in all this is - why now? What is it that makes it so vital to the US to take down the Russians now, so much that they are willing to risk suffering considerable pain (EU is on the brink of recession and even German economy is halted)? Many of the oil producers are being forced to sell below break even point. I think we can all safely conclude that the Malaysian plane was a red herring. The very fact that no one has even released the black boxes & CVRs several months after the incident tells me that there was nothing in it that incriminated Russia. So, the whole idea of completely breaking Russia seems to have been made at the highest levels in the US, and they are willing to take huge risks to achieve it. The questions are - what are the goals (I agree here with Shreeman that it seems to be `no Russia') and how far are they willing to go to achieve it?

There are also other huge questions up in the air. Who is next? And how far are the Americans willing to go to destroy the next ones?

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Shreeman » 18 Dec 2014 13:45

Neshant,

This is naive. Lack of confidence in the system, any sytstem, can destroy it. The economic confidence is gone. Now the only forces holding together are cultural and defense. If defense is undermind by bogging it down in one front conflict, then a color revolution can easily be started in grozny or sochi or even moscow. It will be a cultiural (kasparov et al civil spociety), military (ukraine, then NATO directly) and economic (sanctions, derecognition of russian ciurrency not just devaluation), sabotage and disturbances, and so on.

Most fronts are already active. Russia can not come any closer to US mainland. With US secure, hate vs. russia can be ijnfinitely increased via the poles and such foot soldiers.


The USSR was more self sufficient, not less. There was MAD then, not sure about now. There were also red lines then, there dont appear to be any now.

You are overestimating BRICS. It is indeed just an acronym. Evern India is not going to stretch its leg out if Russia decides to "undo itself" just like USSR. Thius was to be an alternative mnechanism in ten years, not a rapid response alternative.

Edit - there is no "now" in this, just the acceleration of developments is remarkable. The trend was visible two-three years ago. There is NO limit whatsoever to how far this will go.


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