India-Russia: News & Analysis

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Viv S
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Viv S » 20 Aug 2015 14:59

‘Brics in the wall’ of the world’s economic future

By Anuvab Pal

Ten years ago, or maybe earlier, some wise angel — which back then meant a New York investment banker — had taken the first letter of four emerging economies to form a word, a noun, Bric. Yes, like in construction material, but also loaded with a double meaning to emphasise how these countries were building the ‘brics in the wall’ of the world’s economic future.

Brazil, Russia, India and China were supposed to be the future of the world. They were not supposed to be the bric you threw at each other during a petty squabble. They were the chosen ones, like the Pope or Sundar Pichai.

There was a reason for no angel chose Nigsu (Nigeria, Indonesia, Guam, Slovakia and Ukraine) or Leela (Laos, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Latvia and Armenia). They chose Bric. The reason was that Nigsu sounds like the name of a Manchester City striker and Leela, a Bharatnatyam dancer. The other reason, less important reason, could be that all these Bric economies were booming in 2005.

The standard quip in offices that previously dominated world-everything —London, New York, etc — circa 2005, was, “Dubai, Shanghai, Mumbai or Goodbye”. Meaning, if you didn’t have skills to move to the Brics, or near enough to service them, you’d be fired. Companies rushed to set up offices as quickly as possible. Here in Mumbai, people were willing to pay so much for rent that old Mumbai landlords thought, “Um, you’ll pay Rs 3 lakh a month for this? It doesn’t even have a ceiling.”

Every forecast, graph, analysis involving Bric only suggested an upward trajectory in everything. Pundits predicted that together, it would be a $1-trillion economy. Bar graphs were going up so high that sometimes the growth figures escaped the PowerPoint presentation they were contained in.

I remember being in a presentation of a tech company of an LGBT social networking community platform. When the slide came to Bric, the projection suggested there would be a 320% growth in the number of homosexuals in these countries and, therefore, everyone should support the ad revenue of this website.

Insane predictions were being made because things in the west were pretty grim with the subprime mortgage crisis. You needed some ray of hope even if it came from a place you’d never been to. It, emotionally, psychologically, felt better to say, “I can see our business growing in triple digits in 11 hours in Mumbai only if we move in now” than saying, “We’re ruined. I’m jumping out of this window.”

The thing about the future is that in time, it does become the present. And in 2015, however rosy Bric may have sounded in economic research reports, the reality on the ground is now a bit different. Brazil finds itself in the middle of one of the worst recessions ever with daily street protests against President Dilma Rousseff. Shockingly, it has nothing to do with their 1-7 loss to Germany in the World Cup.

China’s economic development wasn’t supposed to mean an assembly plant for Apple MacBooks. And it has come with so much pollution that in the morning smog in Beijing, citizens can’t see each other. Not to mention a devaluation as things turn sour, like the yuan is monopoly money.

Then there’s Vladimir Putin’s Russia that is, well, Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Last week, there was a news item that said biographies of Putin by western authors were being rewritten and sold in Russian without the original authors being told. If you go to your office in the morning and it is still in the same place as the previous day with the same colleagues, well, that’s a great day at the office.

If the R in Bric stood for ‘rogered’, then western investments are doing fine in Russia. It is not uncommon, however, to find your revenues rerouted to another bank account or suddenly have no bank account. Which leaves us with… For a while, the world had given up on us when we had corrupted ourselves. But now, apparently we are the only hope. Which sounds quite frightening actually.

The world is looking at the ‘I’ in Bric to help them. Seeing what we see of our economy everyday, it reminds me of that Groucho Marx quote, “I refuse to join any club that would have me as amember.”

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby member_28539 » 20 Aug 2015 15:56

My personal experience with Russians has been very very good compared to Finnish or for that matter of fact even Swedes..

Eg 1: An international Judo tournament where I was participating in 2014 saw a Judoka from India loose his luggage in Astana, the russian contingent learnt of this & immediately offered him a Judogi for competing of proper size. the lad from India was very poor & was absolutely baffled, but got back on later.

Eg 2: Have a guest over currently from Russia, she will be here to learn Hindi for a year, met her at AOL ashram in B'lore. They lady almost choked up telling us about the circumstances around this year's Victory day parade & how Putin keeps motivation going and was all Gaga about Modi & how people love the cultural & colors of India.

The Finnish well...slime offending is a forte of theirs, my boss at work is Finnish & never leaves a chance to highlight the most preposterous news item of the day to me. The response he gets is good, but he never has desisted from this habit since past 3 years. Weird people & even strange sense of humor or lack of it..i don't know...

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby arshyam » 20 Aug 2015 18:37

Mort Walker wrote:No. I'm going to keep it up to establish some balance here. Sort of like a Russia Pojitive Newj onlee. Yourself, Austin and Philip seem to have the blinders on.
Saar, if I may jump in, as I am a passive reader of this thread off and on, Russian positive newj is not always relevant to India-Russia relations, which is the primary purpose of this thread. As are comments like:
Mort Walker wrote:If this continues, the Russians oligarchs will quietly oust Putin in a couple of years like Kruschev.

BBC, CNN and the other usual suspects have been saying that since the failure of GWB's policy of 'looking into eyes and seeing Putin's soul' :lol:. India does not make her policy based on CNN reports about big bad Putin. If she did, we won't have a Russia policy, nor will we have policies to deal with a lot of other countries (remember Iran?)

My point is, if you want to inject some balance, fine. But kindly keep in mind relevance to India-Russia relations. They are not one and the same always. So perhaps you could consider a dedicated Bojitiv Newj thread for Russia? It will only be fair, since US, China and heck, even piddly Pakistan have their own such threads.

One more point. Without your flurry of recent posts, it is apparent to the regular reader that ties between India and Russia are sort of drifting of late. They still have a long way to go before reaching a breaking point (if at all that happens), but the sense is of drift. A good example is the number of articles on this very thread talking about India-Russia relations: most of them are from Russian sources, and relatively few desi sources. Let's see if Modi's visit in Dec changes that or not.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 20 Aug 2015 19:16

arshyam sir , Out here we are just observers of India-Russia relations and you have correctly mentioned Dili-Billi are not infulenced by BBC , CNN type shit to get their daily dossier on FP matters.

If one observes the current GOI under modi has been very pro-active with its FP and mentioned it will grow , The ambassador mentioned many Economic & Defence Deal under pipe line considering Modi is here for the next 4 years I would expect the relation would just get better , He has been talking about Astrakhan region being the place where first Traders from Gujrat has settled etc

But coming back to real politick , In the past 5 years real changes has happened on Economic Front , BRICS has gained prominent with BRICS bank being headed by an India , Currency swapping between BRICS nation has increased , India is now the second largest contributor to Asian Infra Bank which was quite a surprise.

Next year India would be joining SCO as full member which is more of Geo-Strategic then economic in Nature , India and Russia are negotiating FTA with EEU and deal would happen soon as per Indian Ambassador.

From Russian Side Thanks to Western Sanctions which I hope persisit for long , There is a renewed vigour to look toward Asia more so towards India and China as both nations would be 2nd and 3rd largest Energy Consumer by 2035 as per EIA and the only two nation where Energy needs would grow and not remain stagnant unlike says EU.

Russia primary export Energy constitute 50 % of Revenue and 15 % GDP hence the big Deal with China and deals with Essar etc and more to come.

Russia in a way has no option but to increase its trade base in India and 21st Century is an Asian century lead by India and China , the trajectory of Trade for Russia would grow towards Asia and would decouple itself from EU over 10-15 years , its a natural phenomena due to growing economies in this region , the vast energy needs will dictate the terms of relation.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 20 Aug 2015 19:36

Joshi_Sa wrote:My personal experience with Russians has been very very good compared to Finnish or for that matter of fact even Swedes..


While we are at it ,the only Russian person I know is my office colleague from Moscow. Was very surprised when the first time he told me his SHQ was madly in love with Goa and ended up in India for 6 months , SHQ has started some handicraft business in Goa and keeps frequenting here.

Colleague was initially reluctant but once SHQ took him around in India including to Kashmir , Punjab and other places in India and since then he is all praise for India , Since he served in Armed forces out there probably coz they have conscription he met couple of armed forces personal in Kashmir and was mentioning to me about wide use of AK by our forces

I think its more than 9 years or so they have been frequenting India and every Dec-Jan they make it a point to be in India in Goa for a month , seems to be madly in love with the place , Last year due to Russian Economic Problem and Goa trip turning expensive they went to Vietnam for a change in terms of less expensive place but then they decided it was their last mistake and would stick to India

their long term plan seems to be to settle in Goa and they would soon buy a house here and expand their business.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Karan M » 20 Aug 2015 20:06

Mort Walker wrote:
Karan M wrote:Yes, all other countries sell to India out of the goodness of their souls, whereas Russia wants to milk India. :lol:


When countries don't honor contracts and ask for more money it is called milking. Be it the Americans, French, or British. Is this a difficult concept to understand?


Good you finally understand it.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Karan M » 20 Aug 2015 20:13

Mort Walker wrote:We really don't know what has been spent by GoI on the FGFA and it is very fair to say billions as the Russians aren't complaining. The only thing we have are some sketchy reports on negotiations on development contracts as of June and earlier this year.


So now you admit you don't have a clue about what has been spent and are only cooking up claims based on "russians aren't complaining"... that seems to be having blinders on...and needless to say, very much like our neighbours who cook up claims too of 10000000 Indoo soldiers in Cashmere - logic, hey, the Cashmeres are complaining and the Indians aren't! :lol:

No. I'm going to keep it up to establish some balance here. Sort of like a Russia Pojitive Newj onlee. Yourself, Austin and Philip seem to have the blinders on.


In short, you admit you are going to troll a serious thread in order to satisfy your own prejudice since you can't post anything worthwhile or factual.

About those blinders, mega case of projection.

This sort of behavior again is very much like our specific neighbours. In short, generally messing up an otherwise ok place. Besides which since you call the Russians pakis, and the Russians probably think you are one, and your behaviour is increasingly similar, please explain why you shouldn't be referred to in similar vein?

Equality and non-alignnment onlee from Indians. :lol:

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Karan M » 20 Aug 2015 20:31

arshyam wrote:Saar, if I may jump in, as I am a passive reader of this thread off and on, Russian positive newj is not always relevant to India-Russia relations, which is the primary purpose of this thread. As are comments like:
Mort Walker wrote:If this continues, the Russians oligarchs will quietly oust Putin in a couple of years like Kruschev.

BBC, CNN and the other usual suspects have been saying that since the failure of GWB's policy of 'looking into eyes and seeing Putin's soul' :lol:. India does not make her policy based on CNN reports about big bad Putin. If she did, we won't have a Russia policy, nor will we have policies to deal with a lot of other countries (remember Iran?)


There is a phamous old jungle saying "new converts hit the mat the hardest" when it comes to doing all the salootin, hootin't tootin' and then behaving like they have to protect freedom. (From Putin). You are seeing the classic case here. Mucho takleef and burnol requirement because indoos have a bojitive news thread on the great Khan and are not cursing the filthy, abominable, 3rd world, corrupt Russians! How dare they? :lol:

Anyone with actual interest in a strong independent India would realize that a multipolar world is in India's interest, especially one with countries which India has strong strategic ties with, and provide it security guarantees via advanced arms transfers which it doesn't get from anywhere else. Its in India's interest to keep this going and learn some lessons along the way - eg how to develop our own GOST style standardization f.e. (which we are now doing).

My point is, if you want to inject some balance, fine. But kindly keep in mind relevance to India-Russia relations. They are not one and the same always. So perhaps you could consider a dedicated Bojitiv Newj thread for Russia? It will only be fair, since US, China and heck, even piddly Pakistan have their own such threads.


But balance is not the intention here. The intent is to clearly run down the Russian state, and Russians as being primeval racists who live in a corrupt, 3rd world country. All because of burnol effect. How can people on this forum like Russia, harrumph!!! :lol:

Next, having such threads about Russia is useless and actually goes against Indian interests, the thread against Khan was started after the thousandth drain inspector report about Cashmere, dirty Indoos, caste cows and curry which is what the Khan MSM does.

In contrast, Russia goes to some length to keep such racist, colonial trash out of their main media when addressing India. They don't send HR delegations to hector, badger us. Zimble.

One more point. Without your flurry of recent posts, it is apparent to the regular reader that ties between India and Russia are sort of drifting of late. They still have a long way to go before reaching a breaking point (if at all that happens), but the sense is of drift. A good example is the number of articles on this very thread talking about India-Russia relations: most of them are from Russian sources, and relatively few desi sources. Let's see if Modi's visit in Dec changes that or not.


Actually, there is no drift per se, but a rebalancing. India is more and more an economic power and wants a buyer seller relationship to become a developer-partner one. This has not exactly happened both because of Indian lackadaisical behavior (joining the FGFA late) and also Russian protectionism (they depend on their MIC a lot). However, as India's own industry matures and we grow stronger and stronger in subsystems, for platforms, there are only 3-4 games in town - the US, Europe, France (as versus the rest of Europe), Russia. Even going forward, we really can't make every screw and platform within. There will be a need for HCAs, for that one item for our Arihants that we can't develop within the time we need to launch the next class etc. In all these cases, the only country, that will support us, is Russia. Both because of historic ties (wherein we have worked together), and economic, but also because India is not a strategic threat to Russia and they can work with us. We are not creating a fuss about Ukraine f.e. and our establishment in all probability, understand's Russia's strategic concerns even as it regrets the devastation war, and conflict bring. Furthermore, we need Russia's assistance or even its tacit understanding, to widen our footprint in the CAR area which has wide energy reserves and can offset our dependence on other countries.
On Russia's part, they need to work more and more into transitioning their economy into a more balanced one as versus one reliant on energy exports. That will open up more opportunities for Indo-Russian trade.
India & Russia see eye to eye on TSP as well, and that's a plus for us, the occasional JF-17 engine sale or Mi-17 sale not withstanding. We don't get hectored and we get the best that they have. And in New Delhi, that counts.

The big issue with Russia has been serviceability. We are now working to address that. Basant Aero and Alpha are jumping in for MiG-spares. Several other firms as well. Interestingly, a service folk working with HAL on their future programs said that the Russians have now accepted Indian input as a given and in the joint programs he has been involved in (apart from the media back and forth), the Russians do listen and respond. However, he said the same is yet to occur with the French or others. He was not too sanguine about the Rafale because of that. Of course, the entire process became a mess thereafter!!

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby hnair » 20 Aug 2015 21:18

Mort Walker wrote:No. I'm going to keep it up to establish some balance here. Sort of like a Russia Pojitive Newj onlee. Yourself, Austin and Philip seem to have the blinders on.


Just saw this:

um, no Mort Walker, you are not going to do anything of that sort. Russia is a time-tested partner of India and US is only now reaching out to India. So there are certain reservations on an american like yours' attempt at "positive newj russia" in an Indian fora.

BRF is not going to be a trolling ground for Americans like you or TSJones. You both, take it to some tank.net or some such places not here. Is that freaking clear?

Karan M, desist please. He or TSJones need to be reported to admins, not flamed back.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby member_20292 » 20 Aug 2015 21:23

@karan M


Being a MatSci person with IT experience myself, I will venture to repeat the point that I made in the previous post.

When it comes to MatSci (and UI/UX/IT systems) - two fields in which the US is significantly technologically ahead - the technological prowess that is probably present in a product that has the full backing of the United States armed forces, is likely to be greater than the products made in Russia.

1. Since pricing on those products seems to be falling due to the volumes and
2. Relations between the US and India seem to be warming - even as the US cannot be trusted , and
3. Israel is part of the program and joint RnD opportunities exist here between India and Israel, and
4. The Chinese are geographically surrounded by and hence, very rightfully fearful of American arms , thus -

- It makes sense to be buying the JSF. It is a high-volume-Walmartized stealth plane / 5th gen F 16/Mig21.

One should also observe how corporate America influences policymakers in Washington DC - they hire lobbyists , which is totally legal. Local interests are represented by the lobbyists and the predominant consideration is monetary - and not votes based on caste lines or the building of a mandir.

Hence, to lobby the powers that be in the US to make noises and postures that signal to China that the US is in India's corner, one has to go the same route as local American corporations do - pay money - lobby.

Hence, buying American products and being responsible for paying salaries in Dallas, Texas is a good position to be in for India.


@hnair and mods - I'm as patriotic as they come and I'm making my case to be buying the JSF vs buying Russian products here. No trolling.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby hnair » 20 Aug 2015 21:30

mahadevbhu wrote:@hnair and mods - I'm as patriotic as they come and I'm making my case to be buying the JSF vs buying Russian products here. No trolling.


We are not here to do any lungi-tests, but parroting American lines as a trolling device will get you attention. JSF discussions do not belong to Russian threads, but International Aerospace thread.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby RoyG » 20 Aug 2015 23:08

real nice comment especially considering you live in a country that has suffered so much at the hand of Islamic terrorist attacks and IEDs. have a nice day.


Blah blah, in case you haven't noticed gora saab...these attacks took place within the union of india. Spread your american exceptionalism nonsense somewhere else or better yet pick up spanish :lol:

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Karan M » 20 Aug 2015 23:13

HNair, TBH wasn't sure how to respond. Thanks for laying down the policy.

Mahadevbhu, now that HNair has clearly stated the relevant thread so won't dwell on this, beyond the basics:

@karan M
Being a MatSci person with IT experience myself, I will venture to repeat the point that I made in the previous post.
When it comes to MatSci (and UI/UX/IT systems) - two fields in which the US is significantly technologically ahead - the technological prowess that is probably present in a product that has the full backing of the United States armed forces, is likely to be greater than the products made in Russia.


In the new gens TL;DR version, Khan is great, so likely everyone is behind and hence no contest. Thats the gist of your argument. As we have already seen the claim that Russia f.e. didn't have a clue about stealth was completely wrong. And as the Indian AF may point out, Mikhail Simonov or Artem Mikoyan wouldn't exactly subscribe to this line of thinking either.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Karan M » 20 Aug 2015 23:21

panduranghari wrote:Far from dodgy. Russia like many countries already recognises they are past the 'Lewis Point' in the demgraphic perspective. The Vladivostok area of Russia is gradually being depopulated and the people are moving westwards. Russia recognises the danger.


If they recognize the danger, they can do something about it too.

Besides economics, the geography and demographics are unfavourable to the Russians.


Many folks have written off Russia in the past. Many continue to do so. It's still there.

China poses a direct threat to Russia, India does not.


Yes, and which is why Russia is willing to work with India on leading edge systems while it won't go to the same extent with China.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby TSJones » 21 Aug 2015 01:42

RoyG wrote:
real nice comment especially considering you live in a country that has suffered so much at the hand of Islamic terrorist attacks and IEDs. have a nice day.


Blah blah, in case you haven't noticed gora saab...these attacks took place within the union of india. Spread your american exceptionalism nonsense somewhere else or better yet pick up spanish :lol:


what happened in attacks on Indian facilities in Afghanistan? oh geez, you forgot about that, you super patriot you. :roll:

It seems you don't have a clue but Islamists have attacked the US mainland.
Last edited by hnair on 21 Aug 2015 06:08, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Despite warning to lay off trolling in Russian thread, you got to persist?. Banned for a week

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby member_23370 » 21 Aug 2015 02:07

True but US has still not been able to do anything other than invade the wrong country.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby RoyG » 21 Aug 2015 04:56

TSJones wrote:what happened in attacks on Indian facilities in Afghanistan? oh geez, you forgot about that, you super patriot you. :roll:

It seems you don't have a clue but Islamists have attacked the US mainland.



Gora Sahib, when you decide to use your brain for a change, you will see that we didn't occupy the country. YOU DID. So continue picking up the pieces. At the rate things are going at in the ME, it'll be in full swing again. :D

You have a lengthy history. A three to six month ban is on the table - Admin

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Mort Walker » 21 Aug 2015 09:22

hnair wrote:Just saw this:

um, no Mort Walker, you are not going to do anything of that sort. Russia is a time-tested partner of India and US is only now reaching out to India. So there are certain reservations on an american like yours' attempt at "positive newj russia" in an Indian fora.

BRF is not going to be a trolling ground for Americans like you or TSJones. You both, take it to some tank.net or some such places not here. Is that freaking clear?

Karan M, desist please. He or TSJones need to be reported to admins, not flamed back.


hnair,

I will follow admin instructions. However, I will add that I have been very critical of US policy as well. You can discuss this with other admins, or not, as I have a long history here.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby panduranghari » 21 Aug 2015 12:12

Karan M wrote:
If they recognize the danger, they can do something about it too.


Many folks have written off Russia in the past. Many continue to do so. It's still there.


Yes, and which is why Russia is willing to work with India on leading edge systems while it won't go to the same extent with China.


I do not know if your reply of tongue in cheek. But here goes.

Lewis point is a important reference point.

Lewis turning point, named after economist W. Arthur Lewis, is term used in economic development to describe a point at which surplus rural labor reaches a financial zero. This in turn typically causes urban wages to rise dramatically. Upon reaching the Lewis turning point, a country or state usually experiences a food shortages which leads to a rise in agricultural and unskilled industrial real wage.This usually continues until a labor surplus can be reached once again.


The only way to increase the labour pool is to reproduce more (not happening in Russia at the moment - will take at least 3 decades before the effects of increased reproduction are felt), increase immigration (unfavourable economy makes this hard) and many other things which I wont bring up at the moment. So your first point of 'do something about it' is hogwash.

With regards to writing off Russia - Who has written them off? I have not. I have simply stated, Russia cannot deal with both India and China and keep them at equal arms length. I though agree with the 3rd point that Russia trusts India better than they trust Chinese.

It still does not address the issue at hand - Russian economy is completely dependant on the export of raw materials and because of this they have not been able to diversify. Its an energy curse. Even the so called progressive 'Norwegians' recognise Oil which has made them rich wont keep them rich for long. So Norway created the sovereign wealth fund concept. Its been copied by almost all OPEC, China and Russia too. Its not likely to succeed. The only thing that will keep Russia from terminal decline is to piggy back on a country like India who has demographics, demand. FYI, China is also past Lewis turning point.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 21 Aug 2015 13:44

panduranghari , I think you may not be aware but Russia has been experiencing positive growth in population for past 7 years.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomani ... in-russia/

While I Agree with you on the Energy Curse part , its called Dutch Disease I think and the sanctions are helping to over come it , As of today 51 % of Budget Revenue of Russia comes from Energy Sales and 15 % of GDP constitutes energy.

But the problem is not unique to Russia all Energy exporting country experience this and in Gulf Energy constitute around 90 % of Budget revenue , Cant help much beyond a point.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby svinayak » 21 Aug 2015 21:59

panduranghari wrote:
Lewis point is a important reference point.

Lewis turning point, named after economist W. Arthur Lewis, is term used in economic development to describe a point at which surplus rural labor reaches a financial zero. This in turn typically causes urban wages to rise dramatically. Upon reaching the Lewis turning point, a country or state usually experiences a food shortages which leads to a rise in agricultural and unskilled industrial real wage.This usually continues until a labor surplus can be reached once again.


This is for older generation. Productivity per capita has increased many fold in the last 100 years and developed countries have many advantages. With global trade and outsourcing many countries can circumvent the production issues in the country.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby panduranghari » 22 Aug 2015 12:45

That may be true. BUt the evidence does not show up when you try to go looking for it. BY 2030, ALL countries (except India) would be past the growth of the population. Indian population will still grow by about 0.1%

What is true for today does not necessarily hold for the future. THe increased productivity that you are talking about is again a over hyped concept. ITs like saying a WASP is more productive than others. Similarly an INdian working in silicon valley is more productive than the one working in Bengluru. There is no evidence to prove this. They are just claims made by journals who like to toe a line.

Human productivity cannot be measured like EROI- Energy returned on energy invested. THere are other factors too?

For arguments sake if you say American worker productivity is higher than INdian in INdia, something has to give. What gives? FAmily, health...something that may not be measurable....or something else we have not yet measured.

Yes developed countries have advantage of having certain conditions which are favourable i.e. if demographics are a problem, then import people. The import of skilled human is also possible due to the access to a relatively stronger currency. Will such a situation last forever? IN the opinion of some yes. IN the opinion of others - NO.

Population is an asset and the west including RUssia and china are going to soon find that out. SOrry for the ramble. FWIW.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Philip » 22 Aug 2015 14:21

When reputed aviation experts like Sweetman,etc.,plus a host of US critics themselves flogging the JSF as a turkey,what good reason is there for India to buy it? The JSF td. has enough details about the many Qs being raised and US allies have drastically reduced there numbers of orders. The US will have to buy it after spending a trillion so they say, on the entire programme,on an aircraft that cannot outfly an F-16 in WVR combat.

Anyway,this is the Indo-Rus td. Here is a lovely example of Indo-Russian friendship and cooperation!

Western-style cheese from Indo-Russian couple

20 August 2015 Alexandra Katz, specially for RIR
A cheese factory in the small town of Satara in Maharashtra, managed by an Indo-Russian couple, is making European quality cheese, from gouda and cheddar to parmesan and mozzarella, that is served to gourmets all across India.

While Russian and Indian authorities are working hard to get Indian dairy products, including cheese, to consumers in Russia, Charudatta Babar and his wife Olga, originally from Dnepropetrovsk, are busy manufacturing European-quality cheese under the Corona Dairy brand at their factory in Satara, 250 kms from Mumbai.

Babar’s passion for cheese goes back to his childhood spent in Gujarat, where his father worked for Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF) popularly known as Amul, the largest dairy products manufacturer in India.

“I was first introduced to cheese by Dr. A. K. Choudhary, a cheese pioneer in India. He also worked for Amul. He put that thought in my head, that's how I started,” Babar recalled.

Today he is competing with the Choudhary Cheese Bazar, a Noida-based company established by Dr. A. K. Choudhary and run by his younger brother, among few other fromage manufacturers in India.

Before starting a cheese factory in 2006, Babar worked in the family business of manufacturing cattle feed and poultry feed. 'Initially, cheese making was kind of an experiment driven by passion. It soon, however, became a profitable business.

Soon after setting up the cheese plant, Babar travelled to Australia where he completed a crash course in cheese making that helped him improve the quality of cheese manufactured at his factory. Three years later, Corona Dairy was able to expand the factory, significantly increasing the range of cheeses being produced. The factory made technological advances with quality controls set up at the highest level.

Cheese lady

Source: Alexandra Katz

“When I first came here, the factory occupied just two small rooms”, Olga Babar said, passing the area used for packing the cheese before sending it on to customers.

“Today we have big factory with separate areas for each process. Please don't forget your overalls and shoe-covers before you enter!”

As we dress up in white robes and head caps, Olga explains the importance of keeping the cleanliness and hygienic standards at the factory, especially in India with its hot and humid climate.

Today Olga is a boss of the factory. She joined her husband in this business about three years ago when she realised that a housewife’s life would not satisfy her ambitions. Before moving to India, Olga worked in the quality control department of a large pipe plant in Dnepropetrovsk.

A journey from pipes to cheese was not that difficult for Olga who is passionate about learning new things. When cheese making became a routine, she mastered the art of beer making and now brews her own beer for home consumption.

Giving instructions to the factory workers in the Marathi language while explaining the basics of cheese manufacturing to us in English, Olga leads us from the main site of the factory where milk is being heated, pasteurised, filtered, fermented, curdled, cut, moulded and pressed to the cold room where the cheese is kept for ripening.

“Every cheese requires different time for aging. Some cheeses are aged for a month or three months, some take up to several years,” Olga said. At the factory, apart from controlling the staff and the processes, she is responsible for maintaining proper timings for each of more than 20 varieties of cheeses that Corona Dairy makes. “When you make 15 tonnes of cheese every month, it's quite a task,” her husband notes.

The factory's current output is around 9 to10 tonnes, while in winter , which is considered the best season, it goes up to around 16 tonnes. Corona Dairy's product line includes mozarella, cheddar, parmesan, gouda, emmental, edam, ricotta and mascarpone cheeses, among others.

The cheese is sold through distributors to restaurants and hotels in Ahmedabad, Surat, Mumbai, Pune and Kolhapur. Corona tied up with the Fortune Group of hotels and supplies premium cheeses to Mumbai's top rated hotels, The Taj, The Trident, Hyatt and JW Marriott, to name a few.

Until recently Goa, where Corona Dairy has its own marketing set up, was the largest market for the company, Babar said. However, the big drop in Russians tourists' arrivals last season affected cheese sales there.

New trend

Before processed cheese blocks and slices filled Indian supermarket shelves, it was only paneer that was referred to as cheese in India. According to some studies, paneer, an un-aged white cottage cheese was introduced by Persian and Afghan invaders and, for many centuries, was consumed only in the North Western parts of India. It has been not more than a decade since paneer became widely used all over the country.

The spreading fast food culture and growing popularity of pizza and pasta, especially in big cities, made processed cheese famous too. It is now the turn for Western-style cheeses.

A report by Gyan Research and Analytics in 2014 estimates the cheese market in India at US$ 237 million and predicted healthy a 20 percent annual growth to reach US$ 590 million by 2018. However, the Western-style cheese segment in India is still tiny since the major share is taken by processed cheese (which does not have much common with regular cheese) manufactured by Indian giants such as Amul, Parag Milk Foods (“Go” brand), Britannia Industries and Mother Dairy.

Corona Dairy is among a handful of Western-style cheese manufacturers across India serving niche customers; five star hotels, continental restaurants and expats. While some competitors, including Choudhary Cheese Bazar and Pune-based A.B.C. Farms are supplying their products to corporate customers, some other manufacturers, a Pondicherry-based La Ferme Cheese, Himalayan Products from Kashmir, The Cheese Collective and The Spotted Cow Fromagerie from Mumbai, remain small scale businesses delivering to individual clients.

Charudatta Babar says competition in this segment is unlikely to increase significantly in the next five years. “Making cheese is not easy, you need a lot of patience and many new businessmen that come into this industry don't have that patience,” he said.

Olga added, “Parmesan cheese takes at least two year to ripen, therefore, its manufacturing and sales have to be planned at least two years in advance. But the milk has to be purchased today and milk forms the largest part in the cost of cheese making. So you are investing today and getting your profit only in 2 to 3 years when you actually sell the cheese”.

Corona Dairy has recently started selling its products through some of India's online food stores. Babar admits that the factory is working at its full capacity and has to be expanded further to be able to serve the retail market in large numbers.

For the same reason Corona has not yet been exporting its cheese abroad, although the Babars are keen on exploring the Russian cheese market that has recently opened up for new players after the Russian government banned European cheese.

“To export to Russia we need a reliable partner, someone who will be equally interested and will be able to handle food authorities there,” Babar said. He said Russia seems a prospective but very competitive market, since sanctions are probably just a temporary factor and once the ban is lifted, the European players will try to retain their position.
Last edited by hnair on 25 Aug 2015 18:14, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: 1 week off. Do not help yourself to any thread like this and attract flames

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Viv S » 22 Aug 2015 15:42

Philip wrote:When reputed aviation experts like Sweetman,etc.,plus a host of US critics themselves flogging the JSF as a turkey,what good reason is there for India to buy it? The JSF td. has enough details about the many Qs being raised and US allies have drastically reduced there numbers of orders.

The US will have to buy it after spending a trillion so they say, on the entire programme,on an aircraft that cannot outfly an F-16 in WVR combat.

And yet the number of 'reputed' air forces buying it stands at twelve with orders assured from at least six more air forces. Perhaps they haven't read your posts on the JSF thread.

As for WVR combat; 1. the F-16 is no pushover when it comes to BFM in high energy states, and 2. how about you show me the fighter that can dodge a DAS-guided 80G-capable Aim-9X Blk2 at close quarters?

Anyway,this is the Indo-Rus td. Here is a lovely example of Indo-Russian friendship and cooperation!

Rriiight. So why exactly did you mention the JSF in your post?

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby eklavya » 22 Aug 2015 16:01

Thou shalt not doubt the JSF; thou shalt speak of it with awe and wonder; agar JSF ka naam mitti me mila diya, iski sazaa milegi, zaroor milegi

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Viv S » 22 Aug 2015 16:59

eklavya wrote:Thou shalt not doubt the JSF; thou shalt speak of it with awe and wonder; agar JSF ka naam mitti me mila diya, iski sazaa milegi, zaroor milegi


viewtopic.php?f=3&t=6639&p=1889726#p1889726

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Viv S » 22 Aug 2015 19:36

Pakistan Warms Up to Russia With Helicopter Deal

$2 billion natural-gas pipeline also in the works as political tensions with U.S. mount

By SAEED SHAH in Islamabad, Pakistan, and JAMES MARSON in Moscow
Updated Aug. 20, 2015
22 COMMENTS

Russia has agreed to sell military helicopters to Pakistan and is poised to build a $2 billion natural-gas pipeline in the South Asian country—its biggest investment there in decades—as Islamabad turns toward a former adversary and away from the U.S., its longtime ally.

Islamabad has been weighing its strategic options amid rising tension with Washington, which views Pakistan as an unreliable ally in combating Islamist militants in the region, including neighboring Afghanistan.

On Thursday, Pakistan said it would buy four Russian Mi-35 attack helicopters for an undisclosed price, after a spate of high-level visits between the two countries.

In the Russian city of Ufa last month, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif met Russian President Vladimir Putin and declared that he wanted a “multidimensional relationship” encompassing defense, commerce and energy.

That represents a major shift for both countries, in response to a changing geopolitical dynamic. Pakistan worked alongside the U.S. to defeat Soviet forces that occupied Afghanistan in the 1980s, while Russia built close ties with India, Pakistan’s estranged neighbor and rival.

Now, the U.S. is increasingly embracing India as a counterweight to a rising China, which it views as a strategic competitor. That has encouraged erstwhile enemies Russia and Pakistan to mend fences.

“Pakistan has decided it is no longer an American client state,” said Zafar Hilaly, a former senior Pakistani diplomat. “Pakistan has decided that although America will remain important, it must have other alternatives.”

The biggest marker of this new relationship is a proposed 1,100-kilometer (684-mile) pipeline, to be built by Russian state-owned industrial conglomerate Rostec. The two countries are expected to sign an agreement to move ahead within the next month, officials from both sides said.


Image
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif during a summit in Ufa, Russia, last month. PHOTO: RIA NOVOSTI/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

The pipeline would carry imported natural gas from the port city of Karachi to Lahore in the east, helping the country deal with crippling energy shortages. Rostec, run by a close friend of Mr. Putin’s, would finance, own and operate the pipeline for 25 years.

“It’s very important for Russia from a geopolitical point of view. Russia is trying to enter this market and compete with China and the U.S.,” said Vladimir Sotnikov, senior research associate at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Eastern Studies.

Despite Islamabad’s outreach to Russia, experts said it is likely to seek continued close ties to the U.S., which is Pakistan’s biggest supplier of military aid and equipment. Since 2002, the U.S. has provided Pakistan with $31 billion in civilian and military aid and reimbursements, according to the Congressional Research Service.

Pakistan recently signed a nearly $1 billion deal to purchase 15 American AH-1Z Viper helicopters, as well as 1,000 Hellfire missiles and other equipment.

Both Russia and China are concerned about protecting their southern underbellies against the export of extremism and instability from Pakistan and Afghanistan, by investing there to promote economic development.

Islamabad has taken action against Pakistani-based Islamist militants from China’s northwestern Xinjiang region over the past year. Analysts also say Beijing’s influence helped prod Pakistan into promoting peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government.

Earlier this year, China and Pakistan, long close allies, announced plans for a massive, Chinese-funded infrastructure-building program. China has also pledged to fund the construction of a gas pipeline to connect Iran and Pakistan.

The Russian pipeline would represent Moscow’s first major project in Pakistan since the early 1970s, when the Soviet Union helped build a steel mill in Karachi during a brief warming of relations that followed the election of a left-leaning leader in Islamabad. The two countries are now discussing ways that Russia can upgrade the mill, Pakistani officials said.

Mobin Saulat, managing director of Inter State Gas Systems, a Pakistani government corporation that oversees gas import projects, said the new pipeline should be completed by 2018. It would be able to carry 2 billion cubic feet of gas a day, equivalent to about half of Pakistan’s current gas production from its domestic fields.

Rostec said it would raise the funds needed for the project. The U.S. imposed financial sanctions on Rostec after Russia’s interventions in Ukraine, effectively cutting it off from U.S.-dollar financing
.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby arshyam » 23 Aug 2015 19:29

There was some comment here a few pages back about RT doing drain inspector reports to the west. Keeping that in mind, the graph below is interesting.

(x-post from the UK thread)
Image

Source: Russia Today: Vladimir Putin's On-Air Media Machine - TIME.com

Why post this here:
1. RT is sort of Russia's face to the world, so might be useful to follow periodically.
2. We don't have an understanding Russia thread, hence posting here. Will remove if hnair saar or other mods feel so.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 24 Aug 2015 08:16

brar_w wrote:Inflation still remains high, and if your currency is in a free fall and the global price of your main traded concern is free falling and that is a good thing???


The idea of free float is not to artificially keep your currency stronger when your main product energy is greatly impacted.

Russia has adopted Free Float last year in Nov ( Kazakhastan recently ) which means currency will float according to Oil Price.

IF the Oil PRice is High , Rouble will be stronger and if Currency Price is Weak Rouble will be weak. The budget is based on Certain oil price ( and this is based on Average Price for the year not monthly or weekly fluctuations )

Check how their budget works http://tass.ru/en/economy/807418

The Weaker Currency is generally good for export and a Stronger currency is good for Import.

For exporting country like Russia a weaker currency would make its country more competitive , Thats what China did by devaluating its Yuan recently.

So Russia currency Weakens they export will be higher then import because import is harder to do as its expensive.

As far as inflation goes check the figure from Work Bank on Inflation in Russia

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby brar_w » 24 Aug 2015 08:25

Good to see this. So even if oil falls to a hypothetical $1 per barrel it wouldn't impact the Russian economy at all ...:) because they'll just lower their currency to match that... Now as far as inflation the real fun began in 2015..The yearly basis inflation as of Jun 2015 is 15.27%, with he average 2015 inflation being a whopping 16%. In REALITY and global terms no economy will be in a good shape if its primary product's price continues to decrease no matter what it does to its currency. Its just not the Russians that are hurting, all those nations (including the US companies) that built a capacity for oil production are suffering because of low oil prices but there are no signs of a reduction in supply in the medium term (let alone the short term)...

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 24 Aug 2015 08:29

brar_w wrote:You are comparing apples and oranges..The F-22 fielded a capability that the PAKFA won't get for a lot many years in 2005. If the Russians field a type 2 (or 3) PAKFA with new engines and get to clear all the weapons by 2020 that would be 15 years after the first 2 F-22A squadrons were operationalized. The F-35 and the Gripen? Are you serious? Thats a totally different aircraft capability and totally different set of technologies required to develop it. Even then the argument is totally besides the point..Russian economy is at the moment in negative growth. Oil, which is a very important commodity has seen a very steep price decline on account of high production, production that does not look like being scaled back. That coupled with sanctions and high inflation is a serious economic concern for the Russian economy. Comparing it to the US economy, Swedish economy or even the Indian economy is to totally ignore the facts that currently exist and through which the Russians must modernize their economy while at the same time trying to keep pace with modernizing their armed forces.


I am just comparing the Price of Military Program , The Break Even is much low for country like Russia or India compared to West , For eg a MKI can cost $60 million and Tejas can cost $35 Million compare that with similar western program.

The cost is still that low inspite of import component imagine if we could build the engine on our self or all the other electronic etc the cost will still be lower

Re Bhai Wheather your economy is growing or negative , Your Defence Budget is a function of Income and Expendure and Deficit IF you can manage it without significant debt ie borrowing then you can play the game.

How does Europe or US manage huge budget without significant borrowing with Debt Peaking over GDP ?

Russia spends ~ 4 % of GDP on Defence and Saudi ~ 10 % and India ~ 2.5 % etc but why they can spend it is because their budget allows them to do it without having to borrow , GDP is just a notional figure to compare as no one can spend GDP only Budget Expenditure

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 24 Aug 2015 08:32

brar_w wrote:Good to see this. So even if oil falls to a hypothetical $1 per barrel it wouldn't impact the Russian economy at all ...:) because they'll just lower their currency to match that... Now as far as inflation the real fun began in 2015..The yearly basis inflation as of Jun 2015 is 15.27%, with he average 2015 inflation being a whopping 16%. In REALITY and global terms no economy will be in a good shape if its primary product's price continues to decrease no matter what it does to its currency. Its just not the Russians that are hurting, all those nations (including the US companies) that built a capacity for oil production are suffering because of low oil prices but there are no signs of a reduction in supply in the medium term (let alone the short term)...


If Oil Fall $1 then you are in Global Recession of the type not even seen in 1929 :lol:

CHeck the world bank report on Inflation for Russia ........No body denies inflation is high today did I say it it not , The Average inflation is 11 % but this is a passing phase next year it will be lower and next after that much more.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/522807.html

Check the Debt of Russia compared to Western Economies , they havent borrowed for a long time , Debt is just 17 % of GDP compared to say US over 100 % and EU around 80-90 %

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 24 Aug 2015 08:45

arshyam wrote:There was some comment here a few pages back about RT doing drain inspector reports to the west. Keeping that in mind, the graph below is interesting.

(x-post from the UK thread)
Image

Source: Russia Today: Vladimir Putin's On-Air Media Machine - TIME.com

Why post this here:
1. RT is sort of Russia's face to the world, so might be useful to follow periodically.
2. We don't have an understanding Russia thread, hence posting here. Will remove if hnair saar or other mods feel so.


Channels like RT and AlJazeera in ME gained prominence when people realised channells like CNN , BBC , Fox etc were faking news and were speaking what the Government wanted to show or did not

I remember in early 90's watching BBC was something we could not dream in India and our Relatives would call and tell us how boring DD was , but now things have changed and the fortunes of Main Stream Western Media too has changed

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby brar_w » 24 Aug 2015 08:47

I am just comparing the Price of Military Program , The Break Even is much low for country like Russia or India compared to West , For eg a MKI can cost $60 million and Tejas can cost $35 Million compare that with similar western program


In 2011 the USN Paid a total fly-away cost of $58 Million for each Super-Hornet. The total program FY cost of that Aircraft per unit is $66 Million (over a 565 aircraft production run). Fixed commodity cost is fixed for all unless one is not pegging that at the global standard (for metals, composites etc)..What is difference between different nations is the variable cost and that is dependent on the economy, its size, pay-scale etc etc. You can come out with touch labor hours and see how much time in term of touch labor it takes to put together an Su-30MKI and calculate the variable cost for that component and that, along with the production volume will most likely account for the bulk of the cost difference.

That was the last advanced fourth generation aircraft the US acquired. If you take F-22 prices they were high because of the very small production batch, but then when you make the decision to do a short production batch you aren't worried about the per unit cost now are you? Do you think Clinton cared about the per unit cost of the B-2? No, he wanted to cut his total spending on a stealthy bomber and he achieved that as part of his peace dividend. If I have a $40 Billion dollar acquisition program and want to cut it to $20 Billion do you think I care much if the paper per unit cost rises because of that? All he cared about was to take the difference and put into the economy and social spending as was the need of the hour

..The F-35 prices are getting lower every batch and its in low-rate production..The Russians do not have a fifth generation aircraft in low-rate production and when they do their cost curves will be largely similar when it comes to efficiencies gained through touch labor effecieincies .

Re Bhai Wheather your economy is growing or negative , Your Defence Budget is a function of Income and Expendure and Deficit IF you can manage it without significant debt ie borrowing then you can play the game.


I am sorry it doesn't work that way. If you are seeing very high inflation and your export commodity is facing pricing pressure you have to invest in your economy and in your people and that means making hard choices. How long they sustain their modernization ambitions remains to be seen..Inflation, and domestic economic conditions play a price on your cost side of your equation as well.

How does Europe or US manage huge budget without significant borrowing with Debt Peaking over GDP ?


That is a problem with those economies and even China to some extent.

Russia spends ~ 4 % of GDP on Defence and Saudi ~ 10 % and India ~ 2.5 % etc but why they can spend it is because their budget allows them to do it without having to borrow , GDP is just a notional figure to compare as no one can spend GDP only Budget Expenditure


4% GDP will still require to be put into proper perspective when the inflation is high and other economic pressure are significant. Modernization accounts are in future year spending plans, not current plans. That is the point. If the economy does not recover significantly a lot of that stuff is going to be pushed to the right...Unless they want to continue to spend on defense which would mean cuts elsewhere (as has already happened)..

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/522807.html


Go to a different source for further details that this article does not cover (perhaps the world bank) and see what the oil price forecast is for those projected GDP rates. That calculation assumes oil @ $58 a barrel this year (when NYMEX is below $40 at the moment) and above $63 next year. That scenario is unlikely to pan out but even if it does they are only going to start growing significantly by 2017 in the best case and they still have to tackle very high inflation.

Austin wrote:
Lets keep this thread for PAK-FA discussion if you dont mind , I am sure US is a great country , Good Luck to you and brar :)


The US has its own economic problems and areas of concern. Debt is naturally one of them (along with the EU and China) and that remains an area of concern going forward for the US and many western economies. But the point that you can peg your currency and not suffer the consequences of a falling energy price (when oil is your main export commodity), rising inflation and poor economic indicators elsewhere and still escape domestic spending and economic revival challenges is rather absurd. By pegging your currency to oil you basically also make sure that cost of your commodities not produced in Russia is going to be more variable than before..The last time I visited Moscow (4 years ago) it had become a consumer driven city and your consumers are going to have to pay a very variable cost both due to inflation and the fact that your currency devalues compared to foreign currencies every time oil falls.. If the status quo remains hard economic choices would have to follow. They have already made cuts elsewhere and at the moment defense spending is maintained as planned but other economic factors and inflation will play a role in the defense and aerospace sector since it isn't insulated from the general economic conditions of the nation...Since most of the modernization is in future years that impact will have an economic cost that would require overcoming.
Last edited by brar_w on 24 Aug 2015 09:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 24 Aug 2015 09:01

MIC is a significant source of Moderinisation in Russia and Source of Technology and Employment of 6 % of Work Force and its families

Look no one can predict Oil Prices , just 1 and half month back it was $65 and in Jan it was around 40.

But from Russia POV the low Oil Price does not affect budget what it affects is expenditure of companies like Rosneft or Gazprom , Exxon or BP where they cant invest Billions in New Project and thats a sure receipe for Price Increase in near future.

Low Oil Price is good for Russia as it helps it get out of Dutch Disease which they were suffering because of high oil price for long time and I would personally be happy if oil stays an average of $50 for next few years but then its a tough call.
Last edited by Austin on 24 Aug 2015 09:07, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 24 Aug 2015 09:06

brar_w wrote:The US has its own economic problems and areas of concern. Debt is naturally one of them (along with the EU and China) and that remains an area of concern going forward for the US and many western economies. But the point that you can peg your currency and not suffer the consequences of a falling energy price, rising inflation and poor economic indicators elsewhere and still escape domestic spending and economic revival challenges is rather absurd. If the status quo remains hard economic choices would have to follow. They have already made cuts elsewhere and at the moment defense spending is maintained as planned but other economic factors and inflation will play a role in the defense and aerospace sector since it isn't insulated from the general economic conditions of the nation...Since most of the modernization is in future years that impact will have an economic cost that would require overcoming.


Sirjee ever country pegs currency even India Does but can every country afford a significant devaluation ?

Now China just devalued few percentage and world was shouting murder.

Saudi is struggling to keep its currency stronger against US and is burning Forex

You are really underplaying the Debt issue of US , There is huge Bubble in Bond and Stock Market , Lets see what happend in next few years :)

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby brar_w » 24 Aug 2015 09:11

Look no one can predict Oil Prices , just 1 and half month back it was $65 and in Jan it was around 40.


Predicting oil prices is tough, predicting oil production is a little easier. No one is really claiming that oil production is coming down anytime soon. The Saudi strategy of overproducing (to market needs) in an attempt to force out the competition (particularly from the US and Canada) is not working and is unlikely to work in an election year in the US. Furthermore, if the Republicans come to power the Keystone pipeline will happen and that coupled with Iranian oil entering the market will put further strain on any non-Saudi effort to reduce oil production. This leaves demand as the only variable...Unfortunately, China is not growing as fast as it and everyone else expected it to grow and the US (another large energy consumer) is producing domestic energy at its highest rate in years....they have their own economic hurdles to overcome, and china has been the consumer of vast amounts of oil over the last few years. Now you can do the math..If the production does not reduce (or in fact increases) and demand does not rise as fast as predicted what do you think will happen to the price of oil? If crude stays at Below $60 a barrel oil producers will suffer and russia perhaps more so than others because it has high inflation and has western sanctions..

Of course oil could be at $100 tomorrow and I am sure Russia hopes that will happen but it is highly unlikely given short to mid term outlook.

You are really underplaying the Debt issue of US , There is huge Bubble in Bond and Stock Market , Lets see what happend in next few years


Sure lets see..But look at your outllook..Russia is bleeding but they'll get better no need to worry..US is doing fine, growing, low unemployment but the bubble is right around the corner...Of course OIL will reach $100 a barrel and the US economy will implode like next year or in 2017..Austin's perfect storm :) Folks are looking at the modernization plan and calling out what they think will happen and some of them are predicting a lot of these projects moving to the right..As in the bomber plans moving to the right, PAKFA production plans being scaled back over the short term etc. No one knows exactly what the financial and long term impact will be for all these projects are rather classified beyond the basic stuff anyway..

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 24 Aug 2015 09:20

Wait for the next OPEC Summit for Production , Even production is a function of how much you can spend to maintain it , If BIG majorrs cannot spend on Production then the output suffers ...... HAve you checked statement from Exxon , BP , Shell Bosses recently ?

Sure lets see..But look at your outllook..Russia is bleeding but they'll get better no need to worry..US is doing fine, growing, low unemployment but the bubble is right around the corner...Of course OIL will reach $100 a barrel and the US economy will implode like next year or in 2017..Austin's perfect storm


Look buddy nothing personal , It clear you dont understand economy and you cut paste things to make your point without understanding how Oil Economy Works and much less how Russian Economy Works.

I suggest you spend some time on Prespective Economy Thread , I spent 2-3 years and learnt a lot.

I can make some smart Alec Comment but I dont want to , Lets agree to disagree and move on , its a futile in Vain Discussion.

US is Great Economy , Thanks to the Kensians :)

Russia is a Turd World Dying Economy since 90 , Thanks to Mafia Putin :lol:

hnair
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby hnair » 25 Aug 2015 18:13

Despite repeatedly asking not to bring in JSF vs PAK FA et al or make it a US-Russia battle ground, we have people doing exactly that

So brar_w (for bringing in JSF into this thread too) and Philip (for striking a sexy post and making brar_w come) are banned for week.

Austin, you are given a formal warning. No more of aerospace stuff in this one, unless it ties in with Indo-Russian relations in a grander picture.

Austin
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Posts: 23385
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 25 Aug 2015 22:26

hnair wrote:Despite repeatedly asking not to bring in JSF vs PAK FA et al or make it a US-Russia battle ground, we have people doing exactly that

So brar_w (for bringing in JSF into this thread too) and Philip (for striking a sexy post and making brar_w come) are banned for week.

Austin, you are given a formal warning. No more of aerospace stuff in this one, unless it ties in with Indo-Russian relations in a grander picture.


Fair Enough , Point Taken


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