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India-Russia: News & Analysis

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Gyan » 18 Sep 2017 19:33

I think that Putin may have asked 50% (if at all) for Russia. Give 50% shares to Govt from what you have stolen, looks more like his style. He does have Oligarch Friends and may also have benami holdings but this 50% share for Putin himself personally seems nonsense.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby sunnyP » 26 Sep 2017 00:23

Why are the Russians putting their multi billion dollar relationship with India at risk just for the sake of earning some peanuts from Pakistan in the odd defence deal here and there?

Pakistani, Russian armies begin second joint exercise
Russia and Pakistan have begun their second joint military exercise, focussed on counter-terror operations, ahead of the Pakistan Army chief’s visit to Moscow next month. ... NC9bM.html

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 26 Sep 2017 00:49

sunnyP wrote:Why are the Russians putting their multi billion dollar relationship with India at risk just for the sake of earning some peanuts from Pakistan in the odd defence deal here and there?

Pakistani, Russian armies begin second joint exercise
Russia and Pakistan have begun their second joint military exercise, focussed on counter-terror operations, ahead of the Pakistan Army chief’s visit to Moscow next month. ... NC9bM.html

Because strength respects strength. The day we don't need them , they will come to us. Or hold over them had been Paki reluctance to ally with them and that they were literally or single source arms supplier. Today as we have diversified they are open to selling to others.

If we were strong enough to go without them and the US then both world court us. IMHO India today is going thorny l through adolescence. Not cute like a baby, nor respected as an adult. No more mai-baal to protect us and still not strong enough to be taken seriously

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Philip » 26 Sep 2017 12:01 ... 753370.ece
Russia to send its Afghanistan special envoy to India
Suhasini Haidar Kallol Bhattacherjee NEW DELHI, SEPTEMBER 25, 2017 22:12 IST

Zamir Kabulov.
Amid Delhi’s concerns over its ties with Pak. and its new position on talks with Taliban

Close on the heels of the visit of U.S. Defence Secretary James Mattis, Russia is sending President Putin’s special representative for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov to Delhi in October, senior Russian officials confirmed to The Hindu.

Mr. Kabulov’s visit, where he is also expected to discuss Moscow’s new position on talks with the Taliban, will come amidst growing concerns in India over Russia’s ties with Pakistan.

“Russia is not supplying arms to the Taliban, but we think it is necessary to talk to those in the Taliban willing to give up violence, and we hope India will join in the effort,” a senior Russian diplomat said, adding that in their assessment the “Taliban cannot be defeated militarily by the government in Kabul.”

The tough predictions come in sharp contrast to the U.S.’ new Afghanistan policy that will see at least 3,000 more troops sent to fight in Afghanistan and offers India an increased role in development projects while pushing Pakistan to act against terrorist “safe havens”.

Dead-end policy

Moscow has already criticised the U.S. plan as a “dead-end policy” and warned against “putting pressure” on Pakistan. Another sign of the growing shift in Russian policy came on Monday as Russian and Pakistani special forces began military exercises in the Mineralnye Vody region. The exercises will be a precursor to a visit by Pakistan’s Army Chief General Bajwa to Moscow in October.

“Regular high-level exchanges between the two sides in the past few years have set the stage for translating political goodwill into a substantial partnership in particular, in the field of defence,” Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nafees Zakaria said on Friday while announcing General Bajwa’s visit.

Mr. Kabulov would also talk about the “Moscow format” for talks on Afghanistan, which was started last year with only Russia, China and Pakistan, and then expanded to include Afghanistan, Iran and India. However, after the U.S. rejected an invitation to join, the talks have been shelved “temporarily” according to officials, as the Ghani government now wants all such processes to be held in Kabul and led by the Afghan government.

Russian officials told The Hindu that they are already in discussions with India about the possibility of security cooperation for Afghanistan, including facilitating an ongoing proposal to refurbish Soviet-era planes and repair Russian Mi-25 helicopters donated by India, along with talks on providing spare parts and ammunition to Afghan forces, but conceded that the talks had not yet been concluded. Some of the Russian hesitation may be a result of Afghanistan’s new resolve to transition completely from its Russian military hardware to U.S. aircraft and Western army models, with about 200 airplanes expected to be delivered by the U.S. by 2023.

“Afghanistan is free to choose what it needs for its defence requirements,” said the official, “ But we think our hardware is cheaper, and we are a much closer neighbour, able to deliver more quickly.”

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby periaswamy » 13 Oct 2017 00:07

Not really India Russia relations, but carnatic heavy metal, a new heavy metal genre the Russian Band Kartikeya is probably breaking new ground with heavy metal songs growled in sanskrit like "Fields of Kurukshetra" or sarva mangalam...most of the songs are in english...metal with some carnatic shlokums thrown in. Gets your energy up and all ready to eff up the kauravas if required.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby ramana » 13 Oct 2017 04:43

Maybe you suggest setting the Battle of Kursk in Carnatic Music similar to 1812 overture?

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Philip » 13 Oct 2017 12:28

We must also dump the attitude that Russia needs our arms sales more than we require its arms.That is a fallacy.We are far more dependent upon Russian arms than they for orders.In recent times,Russian arms sales have been soaring and to counties former Western/US bumchums.Look at Egypt for ex. Bought the Mistrals destined for Russia from France.Russia got their moolah,the entire Mistral designs,plus sold 52KA-52 navalized heavt attack helos for the ships,plus MIG-29 and MIG-35 orders. I think that T-90 MBTs are also on the anvil. Iran,S-300s,Turkey,who after shooting down a Russian fighter are now buying S-400s and the latest nation on the list for the same,whose king just made a pilgrimage to Moscow,the Saudis also buying S-400s.
Moscow, Riyadh to Sign Contract for Supply of S-400 Missiles - Reports

Our S-400 deal mentioned a year ago languishes somewhere in the cobwebbed corridors of the MOD.Are we waiting to buy US ABM systems instead? Even if we now seal the S-400 deal,we will have to stand in the queue after China,Turkey,the Saudis. and anyone else who will sign on before us..!
SU-35 jets are going to China,Indonesia,perhaps Malaysia,Vietnam,etc. and if we don't seal the deal for the FGFA in some form,at least buying the aircraft in an outright deal,the Russians will happily sell it to whoever they feel.Why even Pak could in the future get SU-35s while we lust after the vintage XO F-16s which they've used for decades!
Last edited by Philip on 13 Oct 2017 12:39, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Philip » 13 Oct 2017 12:36

Apols. for X-posting this from the Levant td.,but it should be studied carefully by our policy makers in the MEA.The US is a waning giant,while Putin's Russia has "seized the day",carpe diem.

The Czar of the Middle East! It isn't as if Putin wanted to be another Putin,sorry...Peter the Great,but if one dispassionately reviews events over the last few years,one can see that he was reluctantly forced to take certain hard decisions which he never wavered from once taken.

It all began with the Sochi Winter Olympics.There was concerted effort to downgrade the games,which were brilliantly organised,embarrass Russia,etc. A simultaneous revolt in the UKR was orchestrated sending the pro-Russian leader Yanukovich running for his life-in fact Putin said that Russia saved his life.( PL. watch this ,v.interesting docu including Putin,how he was saved.

This was done with clear western/EU covert and overt ops,where EU politicos were seen in Kiev urging on the demonstrators.This led to the division of the UKR with the West and neo-Nazis forces of the Right Sector This led to Putin determining that Crimea (handed over to Kiev earlier,but which was always Russian) should be returned to Russia.As they say the rest was history.Putin swiftly through a referendum giving it legitimacy,saw to it that the Crimes was back in Russian control and a grand victory celeb. was held in the Kremlin for the world to see.The West defeated in its intent to oust Russian influence in the UKR was determined to damage Putin's reputation and used all manner of tricks including the shooting down of a Malaysian airliner ,blaming it on Russian separatists.
As many analysts have said,Russian ones too,the West/NATO reneged upon the deal made between Reagan and Gorbachev about not advancing into Eastern European nations by NATO ,which reached Russia's borders ,acerbated with the planned UKR coup.It was the last straw for Russia.Putin got what he wanted most,the Crimea,a strategic prize without price ,the spearhead ensuring domination of the Balck Sea and saw to it that a cease-fire was orchestrated through the Minsk agreement,cemeting his Crimean take-away ,fait accompli!

In the Middle east,the West and its Sunni Arab potentates,wanted to overthrow/regime change again,the Syrian govt. as they did in Libya,etc. They used the old Afghan tricks,sponsoring anti-govt. demos,acts of terror,funding and training so-called 'rebels" and launched an attempt to oust Assad using a two-front strategy.ISIS, a Western/Arab/Saudi creation,where even the Turks were doing business with ISIS, and the motley group of Syrian 'rebels" made a massive attempt to oust Assad.Unfortunately, for Assad and the Syrian people/regime,it was either fight to the death or get thrown into the Meditt. Sea. At a crucial moment,when US chicanery was evident in all is loathing and duplicity,pretending to combat ISIS when in fact it was protecting it,Putin intervened to preserve Russia's legitimate rights in the region.In a matter of a few weeks he had stooped ISIS in its tracks,then with the help of Syrian and Iranian backed militias,he turned the tide and sent ISIS on a course of retreat from which they never could break out of.City by city fell to the pro-Assad forces and even Turkey which shot down a Russian fighter,have made an about turn and have established close ties with Russia to the extent of Russia providing it with S-400 ABM missiles!

The Sunni potentates,bum-chums of the US for decades,suddenly woke up and smelt the samovar! They realised that it was Putin who was a real man,who never flinched from doing the biz.They now want his blessings for their won survival as they know that Russia could in days destroy their mil capability amply demonstrated in Syria.Russia's traditional close ties to Shiite Iran also worry them,therefore the pilgrimage top Moscow by the Saudi king,etc.All this achieved despite the worst ever sanctions and anti-Russia campaign by the West,US and UK in particular. ... ddle-east/
How Putin came to rule the Middle East
Syria and Libya are just two examples of how the Russian leader has been running rings around the West
John R. Bradley

(Illustration by Christian Adams)
John R. Bradley
7 October 2017
9:00 AM
When Russia entered the Syrian civil war in September 2015 the then US secretary of defense, Ash Carter, predicted catastrophe for the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin was ‘pouring gasoline on the fire’ of the conflict, he said, and his strategy of fighting Isis while backing the Assad regime was ‘doomed to failure’. Two years on, Putin has emerged triumphant and Bashar al-Assad’s future is secure. They will soon declare victory over Isis inside the country.

The dismal failure turned out to be our cynical effort to install a Sunni regime in Damascus by adopting the Afghanistan playbook from the 1980s. We would train, fund and arm jihadis, foreign and domestic, in partnership with the Gulf Arab despots. This way we would rob Russia of its only warm-water naval base, Tartus, on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. In the process we would create a buffer between Iran and its Lebanon-based proxy, Hezbollah, to divide the anti-Israel Shia axis. And we would further marginalise Iran by extending the influence of our Sunni Gulf allies from Lebanon deeper into the Levant. Half a million Syrians were slaughtered as a consequence of this hare-brained scheme, which geo-politically has resulted in the exact opposite of the intended outcome.

Putin, though, had grasped the reality at the outset. Unlike Afghans, ordinary Syrians were used to living in a liberal, diverse culture that, while politically repressive, championed peaceful religious co-existence. Most of them were nervous about seeing their country transformed into a Wahhabi theocracy. Assad, for all his faults, was the buffer between them and internecine carnage. They stuck with the devil they knew, and there was no popular revolution against Assad — nothing compared to the Tahrir uprising that ousted the hated Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak. The millions-strong demonstrations in Damascus were pro-regime. Among the two-thirds of the Syrian population now living in government–controlled parts of the country, Assad is more popular than ever, and Putin is a hero.

Small wonder Putin recently mocked Washington for ‘not knowing the difference between Austria and Australia’. The same charge could, alas, be levelled at Nato leaders generally. At a UN meeting last month, the Orwellian-named Friends of Syria group — the western and Gulf Arab alliance that unleashed jihad — stated they would not engage in reconstruction efforts until (in Boris Johnson’s words) there was a political ‘move away from’ Assad. But weeks earlier, a massive international conference on reconstruction had taken place in Damascus. During it, Assad had ruled out awarding the multi-billion-dollar contracts up for grabs to hostile western and Arab countries on the grounds that they had destroyed his country. Instead, Syria would look east, and especially to Russia, Iran and China. Already Moscow is busy shipping thousands of tons of materials and more than 40 pieces of construction equipment — including bulldozers and cranes — to Syria, which does not want or need our assistance.

An inability to acknowledge, still less confront, Russia’s expanding regional role on the back of Syria was similarly highlighted during a whirlwind trip Johnson made to Libya in August. There, he had a brief meeting with secular strongman Khalifa Haftar, a former general in Gaddafi’s army whose forces now dominate eastern Libya — including Benghazi and most of the country’s major oil fields. He is determined to overrun Tripoli, and probably will. Haftar has ties with Moscow going back to the early 1970s and has been in Putin’s pocket for at least two years, repeatedly meeting with Russian officials on an aircraft-carrier off the Mediterranean coast. A week before shaking hands with Johnson, Haftar had visited Moscow to hold extensive discussions with top officials from the defence and foreign ministries. They cemented plans to move fragmented Libya towards statehood under Haftar as an all-powerful defence minister, with direct Russian military aid. The Kremlin has already deployed troops and fighter jets to western Egypt to join that country and the UAE, which is also backing Haftar in his unifying fight against the Islamists. As with Syria, for decades before the fall of Gaddafi, Russia was Libya’s biggest arms supplier and closest international ally, and Moscow has long been eyeing a naval base on the Libyan coastline to complement its (now much beefed-up) base in Tartus. Given all this, as Johnson suggested that Haftar may have a ‘role to play’ in any future political reconciliation, while insisting that he abide by an internationally brokered ceasefire, the latter must have found it hard to contain his laughter.

Syria and Libya, though, are just two examples of how Russia is running rings around the West in its determination to achieve superpower status in the Middle East. Putin has just inked a deal with Turkey — which has Nato’s second-largest standing army — to sell the latter its most advanced S-400 air defence system. (The S-400 has already been deployed across Syria, while Iran has been given the less advanced but still formidable S-300.) Shortly after Russia entered the Syrian war, Turkey had shot down one of its planes. It was a deliberate attempt to provoke a wider war by President Recep Erdogan, who was furious that Putin was, by way of a relentless bombing campaign, putting an end to his support for Isis foot soldiers inside Syria and his purchasing of oil from the caliphate. (Nato had ignored all this duplicity in the hope that Isis would weaken Assad.) It is testament to Putin’s extraordinary diplomatic skills that Russia and Turkey are these days singing each other’s praises as never before. And under Russian auspices, Turkey is working with Iran and Iraq to contain the fallout from the Kurdish referendum on independence.

When King Salman arrived in Moscow this week, it was the first time that a Saudi leader paid an official visit to Russia — but just the latest in more than two dozen face-to-face meetings Putin has had with Middle Eastern leaders. Russia, of course, is not the Soviet Union, and it is easy to see why the Saudi and other Gulf tyrannies believe they can do business with an authoritarian leader like Putin. He shares their contempt for western-style democracy; and, unlike whoever happens to inhabit the White House, he is a man of his word, promotes stability not chaos, and has no complicating human rights agenda.

On the Saudi agenda in Moscow: the rise of Iran as a dominant regional player, Syria’s de-escalation zones, and billions of dollars in Russian arms sales and direct mutual economic investment. Riyadh is still outraged that the Obama administration had agreed a nuclear deal with Iran, the Saudis’ rival for regional hegemony, and is sulking over the Syria debacle. They have only Russia to turn to in an effort to limit Tehran’s influence in Syria. For the same reason, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been holding meetings with Putin. During one, he was almost in tears as he, like the Saudis, begged the Russian leader to rein in Iran and Hezbollah, which seek the Jewish state’s destruction.

In a desperate last-ditch effort to stop the Putin power grab in his tracks, the Trump administration will almost certainly decertify the Iranian nuclear deal on October 15, despite the International Atomic Energy Agency, EU and UN being adamant that Tehran is abiding by its terms. The aim is to provoke military confrontation with Iran, or at the least create more regional turmoil to undermine the Kremlin. The reckless and unjustified move will throw a spanner in the works, but in the long-term is — like intervention in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria — doomed to failure.

Putin is well ahead of the curve, having pulled off the seemingly impossible diplomatic feat of fighting alongside Hezbollah in Syria while allowing Israel to bomb Hezbollah and Syrian regime targets inside the country. Last week, a delegation from the Palestinian terror outfit Hamas visited Moscow for talks on the peace process after reconciling with arch-rival Fatah following yet another successful direct intervention by Putin. And Netanyahu has been told that, although Russia considers Israel an important partner, Iran will, come what may, remain its indispensable ally. Putin might therefore already have the diplomatic leverage needed to defuse tensions between Iran and Israel, once again leaving Washington sidelined and humiliated. For while the consequences of Netanyahu beating the war drums over Iran used to be non-existent, now Moscow could give the green light to battle–hardened Iran, Syria and Hezbollah to unleash hellfire against the Jewish state.

It is easy to understand why Netanyahu is quaking in his boots, but should we in Europe be alarmed at Putin’s Middle East triumph? Not unduly so. You do not have to be a Putin groupie to acknowledge that it isn’t him who has been launching one illegal invasion after another in the region, leaving millions dead, maimed and displaced. And he has not only stemmed the flow of Syrian refugees into our continent, but started to reverse the trend. Half a million Syrians have returned to their country this year alone.

And while no side has emerged with their hands clean from one of the most brutal civil wars in modern history, it is also hugely heartening that there were so few defections from a Syrian army overwhelmingly made up of Sunni Muslims (80 per cent by some accounts). They were battling against myriad Sunni jihadi groups in the name of an Alawite-dominated regime, alongside Russian soldiers appalled (unlike us) by the carnage unleashed against their fellow Christians, as well as hardline Shia militias sent by Iran and Hezbollah likewise determined to protect their own sect. Given how Tunisia and Turkey — the two historically secular Muslim countries in the region — are fast embracing Islamism, and how Sunni–Shia infighting continues to tear apart much of the rest of the Middle East, the victory of pluralism and secularism over the wicked Wahhabi jihad in Syria is ultimately uplifting.

John R. Bradley is the author of books on Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Arab Spring, and has been covering the Middle East for two decades.

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