India-Russia: News & Analysis

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 03 Dec 2017 08:39

https://youtu.be/cYyDs-pEw9Y

The best leader of our time "Vladimir Putin" . Song is worth listening to even if you do not understand the lyrics, brings tears to your eyes.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 04 Dec 2017 15:01

An imp. Q as some jingoists in Pak fondly imagine that Russia will dump India for it!

http://capsindia.org.managewebsiteporta ... _CR_03.pdf

RUSSIA-PAKISTAN RELATIONS: IS THERE A
FUTURE?

Centre for Air Power Studies | @CAPS_India | Centre for Air Power Studies
18/17
Chandra Rekha
Associate Fellow, CAPS
01 November 2017
For decades, Russia’s grand strategy in Asia has mainly revolved around two Asian giants– India and
China. Since the announcement of the ‘pivot to Asia’ strategy in 2014, Russia aims to widen the scope
of its Asian grand strategy that includes countries such as Pakistan. Interestingly, the recent thaw in
Russia-Pakistan relations has caused anxiety among Indian political elites and academic community.
India’s concerns are well-founded as its time tested partner- Russia has channelled its focus towards
Pakistan- its once Cold War rival and an adversary of India. Moreover, a trilateral arrangement is
taking shape between Russia, Pakistan and China, further intensifying India’s apprehensions.
Given the current developments in Russia-Pakistan relations, it is of time-sensitive necessity to
understand whether Pakistan is indeed capable or rather willing to deliver the expected outcome for
Russia? Is Russia right in focusing on Pakistan to strengthen its pivot to Asia strategy at the cost of
India? In other words, is there really a future for Russia-Pakistan relations in coming years?
Russia’s engagement with Pakistan is the outcome of the new synergies in the face of India’s
shift towards the United States especially in defence sphere. By mending ties with Pakistan, Russia has
tacitly signalled its displeasure to India of a growing strategic partnership with the US. Another factor
for this development is Russia’s re-focus on using military diplomacy. In June 2014, Russia agreed to
sell five Mi 35 attack helicopters to Pakistan for counter terrorism. Russia’s military diplomacy has
attracted some of the key non-NATO allies of the US such as Pakistan and Bahrain to buy Russian
weapons. Russia has also conducted joint military exercises with Pakistan despite India voicing its
concerns.

Another aspect to the growing proximity between Russia and Pakistan is that the US seems to
distance itself from its most important non-NATO ally— Pakistan in recent times. Pakistan’s failure to
combat terrorism in its territory and the killing of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad
and its failure (rather unwillingness!) to crack down on the Haqqani network has come as a major
blow to Pakistan-US relations.
Interestingly, a correlation can also be drawn to the prediction by the strategic community on
the emergence of a ‘new Cold War’ given the hostilities between Russia and the United States post
Ukraine crisis and Crimea referendum. The pattern is interesting as the new Cold War wave saw both
Russia and the US instantaneously extending a friendly hand to the two most crucial Cold War allies of
the either side, i.e, Pakistan (an ally of the US) and Cuba (an ally of the Soviet Union). Restricting our
analyses to the relevance of Pakistan for Russia; Russia is well aware of the role of Pakistan in
promoting US interests during Soviet Union invasion in Afghanistan. In the current context, one of the
key interests of Russia in Asia is Afghanistan security. The reduction of US presence and its role in
Afghanistan since 2014 has minimised the security umbrella that it provided since 2000. Knowing the
importance of Central Asian region, Russia’s biggest fear is the domino effect of an unstable
Afghanistan. While Russia has taken Taliban into confidence to ward off threats emanating from
Islamic State in Afghanistan, Pakistan is expected to play a key role to yield the expected strategic pay
offs for Russia. More importantly, to strengthen Russia’s ‘pivot to Asia strategy’, a less hostile Pakistan
will be the key and that can only be possible by keeping Pakistan away from the US policy interests.
Russia-Pakistan relations may have improved since 2014; however, the pace of strengthening is
rather unhurried and limited in scope. The main factor behind the reluctance in strengthening of ties
between the two countries is the historical baggage of suspicion and hostility. Russia’s interests do not
align with Pakistan’s own national interests. Pakistan wants to play an influential role in the regional
geopolitics of CAR but Russia has so far managed to insulate the region from Pakistan’s reach. Russia
has been vocal in criticising Pakistan’s anti-India sentiments and sponsoring terrorist activities that
has threatened India’s national security. Citing few more examples of Russia favouring India’s
interests and concerns over Pakistan was seen in the case of the CPEC project and the 9th BRICS
summit held in Xiamen China 2017.

Elaborating further on this aspect, Russia is clear of staying away from the CPEC initiative which
is part of the OBOR project for which it has shown consent. This is mainly a conscious effort not to
antagonise its most reliable and trusted partner- India, as the trade route of CPEC traverses through
Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. During the 8th BRICS summit held in Goa, India was highly disappointed
when Russia preferred to stay mute over its grievance of Pakistan sponsored terrorists activities.
However, during the 9th BRICS summit, the key take away was the inclusion of Pakistan-based terror
outfits namely the Haqqani network, Laskar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohhamad (JeM), Tehreek-iTaliban
Pakistan, Hizb-e-Mohhamed in the BRICS Joint Declaration. In fact, it is argued that Russian
persuasion of China not to shield its all weather friend- Pakistan especially in the fight against
terrorism apparently played the most decisive role in including these Pakistan terror outfits in the
Joint Declaration. This development has also asserted India’s faith that BRICS cannot be used as a
forum by China to act against Indian interests.

As for defence cooperation between Russia and Pakistan, it is limited in scope and will remain so
in coming years. As mentioned earlier, Russia is refocusing on military diplomacy which has emerged
as a key factor in revamping its global status. In this direction, India is a bigger commercial defence
market compared to Pakistan which Russia would never want to overlook. Moreover, China will
continue to remain as Pakistan’s key defence supplier nation.
While Russia is keen to use Pakistan as leverage to carry forward its interests, Pakistan will be a
liability more than leverage as a result of its external and internal politics and crisis. Given Pakistan’s
reputation as a terrorist harbouring nation and as an agent of Chinese interests, Russia will be
cautious in furthering its ties and balancing this uneven ratio. Additionally, despite the US giving
military and economic aid in delivering its interests, Pakistan has failed to comply with US interests on
several occasions including its refusal to sign the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, and combating
terrorist activities. In the same breath, it would be interesting to see if Pakistan is willing to execute
Russian interests or its own national interests. Compared to India, there is absence of mutual
interests, understanding and trust between Russia and Pakistan. More importantly, Russia in its quest
to achieve short term goals through its partnership with Pakistan cannot overlook its special and
privileged partnership with India. Hence, taking all these arguments into consideration, Russia cannot
gamble with its long term national interests. It will thus have to deconstruct its policy towards its new
found partner- Pakistan if the partnership is to see the light of day in coming years.
(Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 12 Dec 2017 01:51

Cosmo_R wrote:^^^"There is no Russia/China bloc. It's alliance based on undermining the US. It is not an alliance based on sustainable interests "

"The larger Chinese goal is to dominate Eurasia, which means relegating Russia to a second-tier power."

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/03/opin ... valry.html

Its Official: Russia is now China's Lapdog.

Russia threw its weight behind China's massive Belt and Road plan to build trade and transport links across Asia and beyond, suggesting to India on Monday that it find a way to work with Beijing on the signature project.

India is strongly opposed to an economic corridor that China is building in Pakistan that runs through disputed Kashmir as part of the Belt and Road initiative.

India was the only country that stayed away from a May summit hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping to promote the plan to build railways, ports and power grids in a modern-day recreation of the Silk Road.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said New Delhi should not let political problems deter it from joining the project, involving billions of dollars of investment, and benefiting from it.(F u c K y o u - use your own advise and straighten your relations with Ukraine before giving unsolicited advice to India)

Lavrov was speaking in the Indian capital after a three-way meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj at which, he said, India's reservations over the Chinese project were discussed.

"I know India has problems, we discussed it today, with the concept of One Belt and One Road, but the specific problem in this regard should not make everything else conditional to resolving political issues," he said. (In other words he is advising India to change the status quo and make a compromise on India's position on Kashmir)

Russia, all the countries in central Asia, and European nations had signed up to the Chinese project to boost economic cooperation, he said.

"Those are the facts," he said. "India, I am 100 percent convinced, has enough very smart diplomats and politicians to find a way which would allow you to benefit from this process." (Yes i hope India has enough smart diplomats to start treating Russians as Chinese stooges from hereon)

The comments by Russia, India's former Cold War ally, reflected the differences within the trilateral grouping formed 15 years ago to challenge U.S.-led dominance of global affairs.

But substantial differences between India and China, mainly over long-standing border disputes, have snuffed out prospects of any real cooperation among the three.

India, in addition, has drawn closer to the United States in recent years, buying weapons worth billions of dollars to replace its largely Soviet-origin military.

Swaraj said the three countries had very productive talks on economic issues and the fight against terrorism.

chola · Post by **chola** » 12 Dec 2017 02:15

^^^ Not just Russia but Japan too. So can’t blame the Russkies on this one.

Actually, Japs are worse. They will help finance China Belt and Road:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Econom ... d-projects

I have something else to beef with Roos. See the chini mol watch thread.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 12 Dec 2017 02:25

I did'nt expect the Russian wicket to fall so soon. When Chips are down and India needs a Veto support in the Security Council, who do we have if Uncle Sam also plays truant? I hope we build relations with France as a back up to US.

India should IMMEDIATELY stop considering any possible Russian military equipment. Let them instead sell it to the Pakistanis

. China is in any case on the way to becoming self sufficient in the next 10 years. Let us see who will replace India as the biggest buyer of Russian Junk paying hard cash.

periaswamy · Post by **periaswamy** » 12 Dec 2017 02:31

Russia is just behaving like any other country -- their actions are only surprising if you believe stuff along the lines of "India Russia are blood brothers and their friendship is eternal". Their interests in Central Asia and Afghanisthan align with China's OBOR policy, so they are giving gratuitous advice to India. Hopefully all the russia-lovers get to readjust their POV on russia after this and such future events. This won't be the last time Russia will suck up to China either.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 12 Dec 2017 02:35

Fat chance of russia lovers (in the North and South Block and the Indian Defence PSU ) changing their POV. Vodka and Natasha and kickbacks is a very potent combo.

periaswamy · Post by **periaswamy** » 12 Dec 2017 02:50

Russia is a reliable partner in other areas where our interests align, like nuclear power for example. But clearly, India serves their interests less in Central Asia compared to China. After all China's Asia Bank is coughing up a lot of cash to build roads in the ex-USSR states like turkmenistan and tajikistan.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 12 Dec 2017 04:57

It has been a wishful thought from Sov. Cold War era days that an India-Sino-Russia triumvirate would emerge to counter NATO/ the West.At that time we had more leverage globally with the nations belonging to NAM than China.The situ today is different.China's massive economic success has allowed it to spread its money like manure across the globe, particularly in developing nations furthering its eco agenda.If India also had that eco clout wouldn't we not use It?We're doing so in Afghanistan however.

Here China is also replacing the once mighty US as the "rich Uncle", esp. in Africa and the IOR region.It has its trade routes set out and is leveraging as much as poss. to firm up the same.The problem for India is the Chinese military ambition which appears to move alongside its trade.The atoll-grabbing in the ICS and Doklam style stand-offs don't help India in changing its attitude of deep suspicion towards China. Russia has resolved its land disputes with China after the border clashes during the CW.The same remains unresolved between India and China for sev. reasons too long to mention here.

What Lavrov is advising is not that we abandon our position with regard to POK, nothing like that has been said, but to try and strike a bargain with China where our eco interests converge.In several intl. fora we and China have taken the same stance on intl. eco and other issues.BRICS was meant to bring the member states closer together , but the underlying problem is that China under XI Gins wants to be numero uno, Chin Corleone ! Unacceptable not just to India but others also.

Well , this can be resolved if a mob style "commission" is set up where each family's interests are clearly defined territorially, where the well being of all is guaranteed and mechanisms installed to resolve internal disputes.The Godfather and Soprano series give good insights into power broking and resolving overlapping interests through diplomacy and deals.The annual tripartite conference between the 3 heavyweights was meant for the same purpose.

India and China will at some point of time have to come to come to an understanding.For that to happen India's military power must increase to such an extent that realisation dawns upon China that we cannot be defeated militarily and that it would suffer severe losses and more importantly great loss of face.Lavrov is trying to accelerate that process, that the understanding comes sooner rather than later.

Russia's mil. help to India esp. in the nuclear field, both military and civil is assisting us to achieve precisely that, an impregnable sub-based strat. deterrent , plus a strong military equipped with better eqpt. than that sold to China
.We thus have N-subs, N- sub tech, missile tech like BMos, S-400s, etc.Russia is providing this to us is so that China cannot dominate the triumvirate/triad in its own selfish interests.Russia might have large commercial interests with China but that is mere business.With India the relationship is deeper, historically .In dealing with Chinese aggro. we must remember the sound advice given by a western diplomat that China will "push and push its sword into soft flesh until it meets steel".
We've done that at Doklam.

China has to realise that it is better having us seated comfortably inside the OBOR Express "p*ssing out rather than being outside on the platform," p*ssing in"!
Russia is trying to be pragmatic.In any Indo-Sino spat it will also come off badly .At some point of time India and China will work out an understanding.The sooner that happens the better.Until then we do not back down on our stand in preventing the Dragon from infringing upon our territory,maintaining our mil. posture on the front and prepare to fight both diplomatically and militarily should we need to.That principled stand of ours must be explained to Russia and for it to pass on the same to China.

We must remember that for the last 500+ years Asia was subject to European colonialism in Asia.Both India and China suffered greatly .The wheel has turned full circle.It is now Asia's time in the sun., especially for India and China.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 12 Dec 2017 06:03

Let me add what the West gave us at the time of Independence as a birthday gift.It (Perfidious Albion ,with the approving nod from the US which snatched DG)
"gifted" us Pakistan! It severed India into two and gifted us a mortal , martial enemy in Pak.That the Pak is were too stupid to realise how they'd also been duped is a sad commentary of their religious zealotry and blinkered vision of the universality of mankind.

The West all through the Cold War gifted Pak the weaponry to be used against India.We thus had war perpetrated against us from '48,'65,'71 and later in the late '90s at Kargil.Without Western military and economic largesse, Pak would never have had the ghoolies to war with us.It also had China and the Saudis as military and eco. benefactors too.Russia on the other hand supported us to the hilt with mil. eqpt. that the West denied us and along with full diplomatic support too saw us sever Pak into two in '71.

The US now wants us as its catspaw to counter a resurgent China threatening to replace it as the global "Godfather".No way Jose! We sent enough millions of troops to fight your sickening wars of WW1, WW2 and peacekeepers under the UN flag. Neither do we want you to fight China on our behalf.Just stop arming Pak, bring it to account and it's military for war crimes, and global and anti-Indian terrorism.

periaswamy · Post by **periaswamy** » 12 Dec 2017 06:11

Neither the west nor russia are India's BFFs -- they have their interests and we have ours. It seems more important to know what our interests are first, so that we know how to deal with these (and other) countries on a case-by-case basis.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 12 Dec 2017 06:49

Use Lavarov's statement as Russia and China wooing India and leverage this to bargain with Japan and WEST. Game have just begin, inauguration of Chabahar have scratched many paws and rattled many old assumptions of C-PECKer.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 12 Dec 2017 09:37

My guess is that the Chins will wait for a moment of weakness in Mr.Modi's political fortune before playing their next move.They may even hope for the return of the UPA come 2019 with a weaker national perspective which would suit China.

As mentioned sev. times, we have to carve out our own destiny, become a strong magnet , military and eco,which would attract like-minded states to join our IOR "cluster".ASEAN states may also want to establish closer individual bi-lateral relations like Spore, with who. We've ramped up defence ties.The ChahBahar gambit is a great start and finessing it with the rail link would be a v .significant milestone , linking us with the Cent. Asian powers again since the demise of the SU.

arun · Post by **arun** » 16 Dec 2017 09:35

Regards the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), the stench of Russian duplicity hangs heavy in the air.

In the Terrorist Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan Russia’s envoy says Russia supports criteria-based approach for inclusion of non-NPT states in NSG which is the Peoples Republic of China stratagem to to block India by promoting the Islamic Republic’s candidature.

Russia not opposed to Pakistan’s NSG candidature: envoy

ISLAMABAD: Russia is not opposed to Pakistan’s Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) candidature and has no intention to block it, Russian envoy Pavel Didkovsky told a conference in Islamabad on Friday.

Speaking at the seminar on ‘Disarmament, Non-Proliferation and Strategic Stability’ that had been organised by Strategic Vision Institute (SVI), Pavel Didkovsky, first secretary at Russian Embassy, underlined the possibility of a criteria-based approach for inclusion of non-NPT states in NSG. ……………………….

Pakistan Today

Earlier in India Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergey Ryabkov was reported as indicating that Russia was not for a criteria-based approach for inclusion of non-NPT states in NSG . Clearly that was not the case:

NEW DELHI: Even as China continues to stall India's Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership+ , Russia has come out strongly in support of India saying that India's application cannot be "interlinked" with that of Pakistan and that Moscow is discussing the issue with Beijing at different levels. China has favoured a criteria-based approach for expansion of the 48-member group, which controls international nuclear commerce, instead of one based on merit, in what India sees an attempt to draw a false equivalence between India's case and Pakistan's.
The issue again came up for discussion on Wednesday as Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergey Ryabkov met foreign secretary S Jaishankar. "We recognise that at the moment there is no unanimity on Pakistan's application and that the same cannot be interlinked with India's," said Ryabkov, after his meeting with Jaishankar.
This is probably the first time that a top Russian diplomat has publicly drawn attention to the futility of juxtaposing the 2 cases. "We know about the difficulties involved but unlike some other countries, who only speak, we are making practical efforts...we are discussing it with China at different levels,'' he added.

Times Of India

India will do well to take the following part of Ryabakov’s statement with an ocean load of salt:

While Ryabkov admitted that Russia was looking to build ties with Pakistan, a country he described as taking great interest in multilateral forums, he said Russia had no ``hidden agenda'' in its dealings with Islamabad. ``I can assure you that Russia's ties with no country in the world will come at the expense of its relationship with India,'' said Ryabkov.

Times Of India

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 16 Dec 2017 12:01

Trikaal wrote:I don't understand what is going on in the minds of Russian policy makers. They are damaging relations with India for a non entity like Pakistan. If it was for China, it would be understandable, since they are a large economy and market. But damaging relations for Pakistan just seems stupid. If their intention is to cow down India and stop us from getting closer to US, they are going about it the worst possible way. If there is one thing about Indians, it is that we don't listen to anyone, and the more someone tries to mould us, the more we will oppose.

Russia is in a pretty bad shape, politically, economically and militarily. It is getting increasingly dependent on China. Russia knows pretty well that India would not cultivate US relationship at the cost of Russia because there is still a deep strategic relationship between us and Russia. It is the China factor that makes it act in some particular ways, like in Pakistan or about NSG etc. Russia's precarious economic and political situation is exploited by China who are masters at detecting the slightest opportunity to exploit (but, Russia's situation is too obvious anyway).

The 'criteria-based approach' for admission to NSG is a Chinese formulation and Russia is supporting that. Russia is not opposing India or supporting Pakistan at India's cost. It is nuanced and has to be read that way.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 16 Dec 2017 19:20

Its clear that Russia would be selling top of the line arms to Pakistan in the future. The fact that it has not already happened is because pakistan does not have the hard cash to buy them. Wherever/whenever they have been able to afford, Russian transfer of equipment has already happened (engines for JF17 and helicopters).

One unintended consequence of Saudi/USA combine squeezing Russia on Oil prices is China getting to dictate Russian policy and going forward if the Oil prices do not increase in a big way, we will see an increasingly autocratic Russia being remote controlled by China.

It would be also interesting to see how Russia is financing the multi billion $ investments in oil/gas pipelines in Pakistan.Given the economic basket case that Pakistan is going to be with the CPEC trap no sane country would risk such huge investments there.

Trikaal · Post by **Trikaal** » 17 Dec 2017 11:46

Russian economy is vulnerable, i get that. They need the chinese and possible future Pakistani business, i get that too. But such flip flop statements on NSG issue feel like backstabbing and i am sure our diplomats feel the same way. The russians, when in india said they don't support criteria based entrance and now, they are singing a different tune. I understand they are doing a tight ropewalk between conflicting subcontinent interests but such wishy washy statements will push india more and more away from russia

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 17 Dec 2017 12:09

SSridhar wrote:
Trikaal wrote:I don't understand what is going on in the minds of Russian policy makers. They are damaging relations with India for a non entity like Pakistan. If it was for China, it would be understandable, since they are a large economy and market. But damaging relations for Pakistan just seems stupid. If their intention is to cow down India and stop us from getting closer to US, they are going about it the worst possible way. If there is one thing about Indians, it is that we don't listen to anyone, and the more someone tries to mould us, the more we will oppose.
Russia is in a pretty bad shape, politically, economically and militarily. It is getting increasingly dependent on China. Russia knows pretty well that India would not cultivate US relationship at the cost of Russia because there is still a deep strategic relationship between us and Russia. It is the China factor that makes it act in some particular ways, like in Pakistan or about NSG etc. Russia's precarious economic and political situation is exploited by China who are masters at detecting the slightest opportunity to exploit (but, Russia's situation is too obvious anyway).

The 'criteria-based approach' for admission to NSG is a Chinese formulation and Russia is supporting that. Russia is not opposing India or supporting Pakistan at India's cost. It is nuanced and has to be read that way.

While we can feel bad about the way that the Russian federation is behaving, isn't it worthwhile to be pragmatic? No country is going to compromise on their national interest. No permanent friends in affairs of nations, only self interest. Why don't we stop thinking about this and do what the Chinese are doing? Exploit the situation?

Just my humble 2 kopeks

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 17 Dec 2017 13:57

Da! Pak can't afford to buy Ru weaponry , only Chin at friendship prices and some freebies from Uncle Sam allowing it to maintain its F-16 fleet. It is being pragmatic by slowly morphing into a Chin mil. satellite.All its nuclear and missile tech has come via China with the US , esp.Clinton turning a blind eye to this rampant N- proliferation.China still ignored its Intel. N- obligations with its continuing N- tech, missile tech being provided.Some it got NoKo to supply to avoid sanctions.

Who said Russia is in "trouble militarily? Who just eradicated ISIS in Syria which the mighty US and its coalition could do b*gger all?! They tried their damndest to oust Assad but with Ru support Assad is the winner in the conflict.Plus it is still sitting pretty in the UKR having returned the Crimea to the mother country! On the contrary , despite the efforts of the US and the Biden's, EU politicos, fascist outfits all combined, the UKR could not defeat the pro-Russian east UKR and its corrupt politicos are now at each other's throats; just see the latest farce involving disgraced Georgian pres., Shaky-Willy, who has squatted in the UKR.

It is further developing its Tartus naval base also with the Hem. airbase in Syria for a 95+ year lease, with auto- extension.This gives it a permanent Meditt. mil.presence capable of exerting huge influence in the Eastern Meditt., while from the huge Crimean facilities at Sevastopol it dominates the Black Sea.zThe new improved relations with Turkey, a NATO member, selling it arms, has shown the inroads it has made diplomatically.The Syrian peace talks were recently held with Russia as peacemaker with the US not even in the room as a waiter!

With the steady rise in oil prices it gains more hard cash assuaging any slowdown in its economy.There is no slackening in its military modernisation, esp. an accelerated production of subs of all types.Russian weapons have had an export boom esp. after the Syrian conflict where the very competitively priced rugged weaponry did the biz. and in some style.

Putin is a v.pragmatic leader not biting off more than he and Russia can chew.Compare his Syrian victory in just two years in comparison to an approx. 2 decade long quagmire that still haunts the US in Afghanistan, Mespot , etc.It can't even control its warmongering Saudi / Wahaabi allies in the Yemen where the Saudis have imploded a naval blockade which the US wants lifted for humanitarian reasons.All this despite the huge eco blockades imposed upon it by the US and the EU poodles.

The GOI is certainly not unaware of the changing global fortunes of many nations, once former empires being
"" be-littled".Britain now is trying to woo Japan's navy to recoup its fortunes! Forgetting the events of WW2 and the sinking of its battlewagons off Malaya and the fall of " Fortress Singapore.

There are innumerable areas where India and Russia can cooperate as close old friends to further mutual interests in every sphere, as equal sovereign nations.I would prophecy that the relationship will further deepen in the coming years due to the flux in the strategic balance and the emergence of the Indo-Asia-Pacific as the globe's eco. engine.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Dec 2017 15:47

Nice Documentary just released last month ,, Gives a good idea at what state Russia was Economically Socially and Militarily when Putin took over and where it is today ......I suspect had Boris continues for 4 more years we would have had Russia and Independent state of Chechnia & Dagestan Republic

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 22 Dec 2017 07:19

Deeper defence & security cooperation with Russia enhances India's strategic choices

(The writer is Director, VIF and Former Deputy NSA)

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 24 Dec 2017 00:42

X Posted on the India-US Relations Thread

Vow! A US-Russia "Grand" Alliance!

Russian foreign ministry says Moscow ready to cooperate with US on Afghanistan

MOSCOW: Moscow stands ready to cooperate with the United States on Afghanistan, Russia’s Foreign Ministry official said in an interview with RIA state news agency published on Saturday.

Russia maintains contacts with US acting Assistant Secretary of State Alice Wells, said Zamir Kabulov, special representative to the Russian president on Afghanistan and the head of Asian region department at the Foreign Ministry.

Cheers

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Dec 2017 12:51

It is better for Russia to co-operate with India then with US which will result in Nothing beyond sound bites

India, Russia working closely on Afghanistan: Ambassador

SCO membership for New Delhi has enabled such cooperation

India’s membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation has increased Indo-Russian cooperation on Afghanistan, said Russia’s new envoy to India Nikolay Kudashev. Reacting to a story in The Hindu about an Indian proposal to buy Russian-made second-hand Mi-35 helicopters, Mr. Kudashev said it was “imperative” to improve the capabilities of the Afghanistan air force in order to combat terrorism.

“It is the vital task of the international community to continue to support the Afghan government and, particularly, the army and security forces in their fight against terrorism. Enhancing air capabilities of the ADF (Afghan Defence Forces) is one of the most important imperatives in this regard,” Mr. Kudashev said, replying to a question about the plan, which involves procuring the Mi-35 attack helicopters off the shelf from East European countries like Serbia and Ukraine for use by the Afghan National Security Defence Forces (ANSDF).

The batch of helicopters would replace seven helicopters, including 4 Mi-25/35s and 3 ‘Cheetal’ utility helicopters that the Indian Air Force had transferred from its own hardware inventory. Those helicopters, that were transferred in 2015-2016, are now in need of repairs and have been grounded, officials said. The Ambassador did not respond to a specific question on whether Russia would clear spare parts for the helicopters as well as permission for their maintenance and restoration, for which a request has been pending.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 26 Dec 2017 00:28

It is going to take real inspired leadership in the US for any meaningful relationship with Russia to ever happen.Russia to an entrenched US establishment is what India is to Pakistan.Putin is the most pragmatic and tallest Russian leader since the revolution.If he can't convince the US establishment that cooperation is better than conflict, no one can.The UK play's its anti-Russia part in sync.It still hasn't forgotten how close it came to seizing control of Russia through ace spy Sidney Riley.Haven''t forgiven the Russians for killing the Czar, related to the royal family either!

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 26 Dec 2017 10:27

The best we can hope is for a ww2 style collaboration.. Nothing more

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 26 Dec 2017 18:22

News report coming in today that even with expected increase in Oil prices, Russian economy size will slip from 11th to 17th largest in the world in 2032. It would be interesting to see how Russia would conduct itself in a scenario where even mid size countries from Africa and Latin America have more economic heft then itself and it would have to prepare for a stage when it is not even a member of G20!!!
One silver lining would be at least more countries it can peddle its arms to.With China and India its biggest customers relying less on it (China reverse engineering most of the stuff, and India importing more from Western Europe, Israel, US and others) it would need all the help from other countries to keep churning out first rate stuff.

Vadivel · Post by **Vadivel** » 26 Dec 2017 23:09

KGB on Indian Intellectuals and idiots, sorry if posted already.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 27 Dec 2017 00:32

Vips wrote:News report coming in today that even with expected increase in Oil prices, Russian economy size will slip from 11th to 17th largest in the world in 2032. It would be interesting to see how Russia would conduct itself in a scenario where even mid size countries from Africa and Latin America have more economic heft then itself and it would have to prepare for a stage when it is not even a member of G20!!!
One silver lining would be at least more countries it can peddle its arms to.With China and India its biggest customers relying less on it (China reverse engineering most of the stuff, and India importing more from Western Europe, Israel, US and others) it would need all the help from other countries to keep churning out first rate stuff.

Russia knows how to turn the things around. 15 years is long time. Way the things are going we have to worry about USA. These countries are not going to give-up easily.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 27 Dec 2017 06:16

Only thing Russia has is Oil, even if Russia wants to turn around things it is simply not equipped to turn around things. Even in case of Oil,US with its vast shale oil reserves is turning an exporter and in conjunction with Saudi Arabia is pretty much be able to control the global prices and has the ability to prick the Russian balloon if it gets too large. We have already seen it happen in the last couple of years.

Interesting times lie ahead with Russia destined to be a chinese lackey.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 27 Dec 2017 11:13

US shale got beaten by join Russian Saudi effort with both cutting prices and increasing the price of Crude , Saudi is in Russian camp not US , Shale is a threat to Saudi and OPEC

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 27 Dec 2017 12:06

To say that Russia only has oil is a misnomer, Russia is vast country, 8% of the total land area of the world, almost twice the size of USA or China! Given its vast size, it is also endowed with vast amount of resources too, by some estimate 30% of the total natural resources of the world! I think what it lacks is manpower to exploit the length and breadth of vast land and the natural resources.

Here is a quick wiki review of Russian economy, it should certainly help in making more informed posts on the forum!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 27 Dec 2017 20:31

Russia was left for dead many times in History but they came back. There are many things they have. Russian technology is laughed at in west, still they had to use Russian rockets. They have technology and most important; they can adapt.Too naive to discard them. 15 years.
I think, next major evolution in international security business is not arm sale but giving security guarantee to countries in exchange of a reasonable annual fee. Example: SA buys arms worth of billions. They can not fight their own wars. So they outsource security to a country (Russia, China,USA etc). Pay them 10 billions annually and sleep peacefully. just like security agencies. That is the future. JMT

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 27 Dec 2017 23:32

Exactly how many Rich countries are there in the world which will pay top $$$ ( and at least a billion a year ) which will opt for the Russian umbrella? The Gulf States are already in Uncle Sams pockets. What is left ? Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada already in US camp. UK and France do not require any protection. Rest of Europe is in the NATO grouping. So which other 'worthwhile' and 'rich' country is left for Russia?
Scandinavia - Doubtful

China and India will not come in the equation for obvious reasons.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 28 Dec 2017 15:06

That paying billion Dollah is a waste as it comes over body bags of thousands of Nato and mostly US Soldiers , As Trump recently stated $6 trillion wasted by US in Middle East. Trump: We spent $6T in Middle East and didn't even get a 'tiny oil well'

There is a good reason why US has unsurmountable Debt problem and its getting worse every day for them , No need to ape a failed strategy that comes over body bags of own soldiers.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 28 Dec 2017 19:41

What Trump says is to be seen in context of the power US derives by having the Gulf states in its camp. All the investments of these states are in Nato group counties or in the US.
Saudi Arabia alone is going to buy stuff worth $500 Billion from the US in the next 7-8 years including $200 Billion worth of arms. More importantly the cost of not being there and conceding the space to the opposition group (China/Russia) is infinitely higher.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 30 Dec 2017 02:26

https://warontherocks.com/2017/12/caref ... outh-asia/
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR: LEGACIES, REALIGNMENTS, AND RUSSIA’S EVOLVING ROLE IN SOUTH ASIA

Russia is trying to carve out a role in Southern Asia that allows it to exert increasing influence while still hedging its bets and limiting its costs. However, deepening involvement runs the risk of feeding into regional conflicts and increasing the Kremlin’s exposure. This is a particular concern against the backdrop of possible American withdrawal from or ineffectiveness in the region — ironically, the very factors facilitating Russia’s heightened involvement.Moscow’s increased engagement is rooted in both global and local thinking. Russia thinks most locally when it comes to Afghanistan, where it worries U.S. drawdown and perhaps eventual withdrawal may lead to more conflict, with possible spillover into Central Asia and even parts of Russia itself. It is therefore willing to play a greater role, although it lacks the resources to invest much financially. In line with its more global perspective, Russia also sees in Afghanistan an opportunity to play the role of mediator and problem-solver. An added bonus lies in Moscow’s belief that fixing global problems the United States exacerbated, if not created, will bolster the Kremlin’s reputation as a responsible and competent great power.When it comes to India, Russia thinks globally, as well as, of course, about itself. Russia wants to maintain India as a major weapons buyer (its top customer for the past decade or so). Moscow also wants at least the appearance of a closer strategic relationship with New Delhi, not least as a demonstration of Russia’s influence and broad network of ties. In this context, India’s increasing closeness with the United States worries Russia. These worries may be a factor in Moscow’s newest flirtation with Pakistan (while Pakistan itself is motivated in part by its own vacillating relations with the United States). Ties with Pakistan also, of course, can facilitate or hamper Russian policy towards Afghanistan.
Russia and India: An Old Relationship in a New World
Like support to Afghanistan, partnership with India was part of Russia’s inheritance from the USSR. During the Cold War, the relationship served both countries’ needs. For the Soviets, friendship with New Delhi, including a robust weapons sales program, helped counter Washington, and, at times, Beijing. For India, ties with (and weapons from) Russia helped it to balance China and Pakistan.In the aftermath of Soviet collapse, Russia had neither the desire nor the capacity to compete with the United States in Southern Asia. But there were other reasons to stay friends with India, not least its continued potential as a market for Russian weapons. The 1993 Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation between Russia and India, an update to the 1971 Treaty India signed with the USSR, was an early affirmation that neither intended to cut ties. In the years that followed, India continued to purchase Russian weapons, eventually overtaking China as Russia’s top buyer. Today, over 70 percent of India’s arms imports come from Russia.
But as Russia’s global interests grew, geopolitics returned to the relationship. New Delhi’s relationship with Washington was improving, with the 2008 Civil Nuclear Agreement and then the 2015 10 Year Defense Framework Agreement. Meanwhile, Russia’s own honeymoon with the United States had proved fleeting as successive U.S. and Russian administrations tried, and failed, to improve relations. By contrast, Russia and China’s friendship continued to warm. As the 21st century moved into its second decade, Russian and Indian goals were no longer as well-aligned.Today, Russia still very much seeks Indian markets for its arms, and India still wants Russian weapons. Although Russia is investing far more in defense, foreign buyers are crucial to financing new systems development. And while India’s own defense industry is growing, Russia continues to offer air defense, submarine, and other capabilities that India cannot match. Outside of defense, though, trade is not particularly high, in contrast to a much closer Cold War-era relationship. The two countries have found no easy ways to substantially boost their economic ties (though Russia does play a substantial role in India’s biggest civilian nuclear power plant, Kudankulam).If Russia’s increased activity in Afghanistan is partially a response to U.S. policy, in India, Russia is holding its own against U.S. encroachment into its traditional territory. This works in large part because both New Delhi and Moscow are happy with a relationship that is more talk than walk. Symbolic expressions of closeness are consistently paired with an avoidance of actual strategic commitments. High-level visits get a great deal of press and attention: Prime Minister Narendra Modi was guest of honor at the 2017 St. Petersburg Economic Summit. Recent Indra-2017 bilateral military exercises put Indian co-pilots in the cockpits of Russian aircraft. Yet Russia has failed to back India’s longstanding desire for a United Nations Security Council Seat with anything more than rhetoric. For its part, India enjoys the autonomy that strong relations with both Moscow and Washington offer: It does not appear to want a role in Russia’s (or, for that matter, America’s) games of global competition.One factor that could change this equation is America’s newfound policy erraticism. If the United States were to push too hard on India, demanding greater allegiance or pursuing policies New Delhi sees as counterproductive — such as limiting Indian immigration — we could see a return to a previous pattern, in which India shies away from the United States and Russia tries to exploit the opportunity.

arun · Post by **arun** » 30 Dec 2017 10:35

Vips wrote:
Cosmo_R wrote:^^^"There is no Russia/China bloc. It's alliance based on undermining the US. It is not an alliance based on sustainable interests "

"The larger Chinese goal is to dominate Eurasia, which means relegating Russia to a second-tier power."

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/03/opin ... valry.html
Its Official: Russia is now China's Lapdog.

Russia threw its weight behind China's massive Belt and Road plan to build trade and transport links across Asia and beyond, suggesting to India on Monday that it find a way to work with Beijing on the signature project.

India is strongly opposed to an economic corridor that China is building in Pakistan that runs through disputed Kashmir as part of the Belt and Road initiative.

India was the only country that stayed away from a May summit hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping to promote the plan to build railways, ports and power grids in a modern-day recreation of the Silk Road.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said New Delhi should not let political problems deter it from joining the project, involving billions of dollars of investment, and benefiting from it.(F u c K y o u - use your own advise and straighten your relations with Ukraine before giving unsolicited advice to India)

Lavrov was speaking in the Indian capital after a three-way meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj at which, he said, India's reservations over the Chinese project were discussed.

"I know India has problems, we discussed it today, with the concept of One Belt and One Road, but the specific problem in this regard should not make everything else conditional to resolving political issues," he said. (In other words he is advising India to change the status quo and make a compromise on India's position on Kashmir)

Russia, all the countries in central Asia, and European nations had signed up to the Chinese project to boost economic cooperation, he said.

"Those are the facts," he said. "India, I am 100 percent convinced, has enough very smart diplomats and politicians to find a way which would allow you to benefit from this process." (Yes i hope India has enough smart diplomats to start treating Russians as Chinese stooges from hereon)

The comments by Russia, India's former Cold War ally, reflected the differences within the trilateral grouping formed 15 years ago to challenge U.S.-led dominance of global affairs.

But substantial differences between India and China, mainly over long-standing border disputes, have snuffed out prospects of any real cooperation among the three.

India, in addition, has drawn closer to the United States in recent years, buying weapons worth billions of dollars to replace its largely Soviet-origin military.

Swaraj said the three countries had very productive talks on economic issues and the fight against terrorism.

Our MEA on RussianForeign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s support for the Peoples Republic of China's OBOR notwithstanding the fact that it runs on occupied Indian territory:

Question: Foreign Minister Lavrov’s recent comments about exhorting India to join, asking India to reconsider joining One Belt One Road, is that an issue of dissonance between India and Russia?

Official Spokesperson, Shri Raveesh Kumar: On OBOR, I think time and again I have articulated our position and if you want I can again say the same thing which is basically that our policy has been very clear and consistent. You are aware why we oppose this and why we have been against this initiative.

We believe that connectivity issues should be based on universally recognized norms, international norms, good governance, rule of law, openness, transparency and quality and must be pursued in a manner which respects territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Coming back to the second Question, I had mentioned with respect to the comment made by the Russian Foreign Minister that India will always be open to any efforts which will address our legitimate concerns in this regard and I had already spelt out those concerns.

From our MEA Website:

Clicky

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 31 Dec 2017 05:01

India should offer to join OBOR provided China exerts pressure on Pakistan to handover control of POK to India. In that case Chinese roads to Pakistan would pass through Indian Gilgit/Baltistan thus India automatically becoming part of OBOR. Otherwise India can not join OBOR.

Pulikeshi · Post by **Pulikeshi** » 31 Dec 2017 05:37

Dipanker wrote:India should offer to join OBOR provided China exerts pressure on Pakistan to handover control of POK to India. In that case Chinese roads to Pakistan would pass through Indian Gilgit/Baltistan thus India automatically becoming part of OBOR. Otherwise India can not join OBOR.

Say this as friendly advice: strategy is counter intuitive - the above is non-Chankiyan thinking onlee

Why phor give Chinese Forefather power to interfere in India's internal affair?

POK has been and will be a bilateral matter between Porki and Indu, why Cheeni gustaki? If so, then why not Mai Bhap be given same role?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 31 Dec 2017 07:56

2017 WAS A GOOD YEAR FOR INDIA-RUSSIA TIES, 2018 CAN BE BETTER - Nandan Unnikrishnan

However successful the defence relationship between India and Russia, it is not enough in the modern world to sustain a truly strategic partnership – one that provides each other with greater strategic space to deal with the challenges of the new emerging geopolitical world order.

The Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin’s recent visit is further evidence of the growing upward momentum in Indo-Russian relations. This was the third trip to India this year by the Russian official in-charge of the Military-Industrial Complex. However, Rogozin’s visit this time was related more to the Indo-Russian Joint Commission meeting than military matters, although these undoubtedly would have been discussed in his meetings with India’s national security Advisor Ajit Kumar Doval. Rogozin along with Sushma Swaraj, India’s Foreign Minister, is a co-Chair of the India-Russia Joint Commission. During his visit, Rogozin also met India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

The Co-Chairs of the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC) met in New Delhi on December 23. The Co-Chairs reviewed the current state of Indo-Russian relations with particular focus on economic matters.

The official statement at the end of the meeting stressed that the two leaders noted “the impressive growth of 22% in bilateral trade” in the past six months. Apart from that, the two sides considered the progress on issues concerning the most significant aspects of our bilateral economic cooperation such as trade, economy, investment, industry, energy, transport, agriculture and space.

The two leaders also agreed on some action points that included:

• Raising the level of the Joint Working Group on Trade and Economic Cooperation to that of Deputy Minister level.

• Creating a mechanism to discuss and remove any barriers to trade.

• Creation of a Working Group on Agriculture.

• Creation of a Working Group on Pharmaceuticals.

• Agreement to actively promote inter-regional cooperation, which has a significant untapped potential for cooperation.

• The decision to expedite implementation of the Green Corridor for the exchange of pre-arrival data between Customs Administrations of the two countries.

It is interesting that Rogozin’s visits this year are akin to bookends for a year of intensive political exchanges – he was the first high-level Russian official to visit in January and the last to visit in December this year. In all, there have been a dozen high-level visits to India by Russian leaders and over two dozen visits to Russia by Indian ministers and officials. The significant boost to bilateral exchanges can be gauged from the fact that this is probably the first time in many years that the Indian Foreign Minister, Defence Minister and National Security Advisor have visited Russia twice each in the same calendar year.

But these dry statistics of increased trade, investment and bilateral high-level visits while significant in themselves are also signs that the two countries have begun taking energetic steps to revitalise the relationship. This is probably a reflection of the view that however successful the defence relationship, even if indirectly backed up with a deep engagement in civil nuclear energy, it is not enough in the modern world to sustain a truly strategic partnership – one that provides each other with greater strategic space to deal with the challenges of the new emerging geopolitical world order.

The two sides also appear to comprehend that even the “main pillar” of the relationship the military-technical relationship faces many challenges. The Russian side is deeply concerned with the direction of India’s efforts to diversify its military procurements and collaborations. The Indian side has its set of grievances about some high-profile joint development projects and the “never-ending problem” with the supply of spares.

However, if the potential for development of defence ties is fully harnessed, then these impediments pale into insignificance. Russia could contribute to India’s development story if it would help India significantly expand its manufacturing capabilities advanced defence platforms including submarines, particularly nuclear-powered. The two countries could also consider joint manufacturing of weapons systems for export to third countries.

Meanwhile, the discussions during Rogozin’s visit would have stressed with satisfaction the progress in bilateral ties made in 2017. But the leaders of the two countries would have also noted that there is a need not only to boost the current positive momentum in ties but that there is potential to significantly enhance the tempo.