India-Russia: News & Analysis

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Ashokk
BRFite
Posts: 690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Ashokk » 05 Jun 2020 12:56

India briefs Russia on LAC, Afghanistan
NEW DELHI: While PM Narendra Modi exchanged views with US President Donald Trump on the situation at LAC, India has also briefed Russia about the border standoff with China.
Foreign secretary Harsh Shringla in a meeting Tuesday with Russian ambassador Nikolay Kudashev discussed regional issues of interest like Afghanistan and also the border situation in Ladakh, ToI has learnt.
Russia is seen by many as China's ally but it's also a key partner of India with which the government has lined up a series of heavy-duty bilateral and multilateral engagements this year. Russia's unqualified support to India on reorganisation of JnK has been critical to India's efforts to fend off criticism over the issue.
India remains against any form of mediation on the border issue. In the past though, on the limited issue of NSG membership, it has used Moscow to convince China to not oppose India's bid, as then foreign minister Sushma Swaraj confirmed in 2017.
Shringla and Kudashev discussed in detail plans for the upcoming events.
These include Indian military participation in the Military Parade in Moscow on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the victory in the Second World War, SCO/BRICS summits in Russia and meetings of defence ministers and foreign ministers, visit by President Vladimir Putin for the annual summit, RIC foreign ministers' meeting and also the SCO heads of government meeting which will be hosted by India in November.

Russia is said to have backed India and China to resolve the latest border flare up through their existing bilateral agreements and protocols.
Russia's deputy ambassador Roman Babushkin was Monday quoted as having said that while Russia was worried about the current situation at LAC, it was also confident that India and China would be able to find a way out through the "dedicated special mechanisms and tools" they had developed like hotlines, special representatives' dialogue and informal summits.
He had also said Russia would encourage any such endeavour, while underlining the significance of Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral and SCO cooperation for regional stability and developing mutual trust.
Like India, Russia is also among the 4 countries Trump has invited to join G-7 as he seeks to turn the "outdated" group effectively into G-11. Moscow doesn't appear as enthused by the invite though, and perhaps expectedly so because of its ties with China.
Russia's foreign ministry spokesperson was Tuesday quoted as having said that while the idea of an expanded G-7 summit was in general a step in the right direction, it didn't really mean a true representation.
"For instance, it's obvious that it's hardly possible to implement serious global initiatives without China. We currently have an efficient, tried and tested format, G20, which includes G7, BRICS and other leading centres of economic growth and political influence of the entire world, not just one part of it," she said.

India-Russia in 2020
1. Indian military contingent’s participation in the Military Parade in Moscow this month on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the victory in the Second World War

2. SCO/BRICS Summits in Russia

3. Meeting of SCO/CIS/CSTO Defence Ministers

4. Meeting of SCO/BRICS Foreign Ministers

5. India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission proposed in September

6. Foreign Secretary – deputy foreign minister consultations before the Annual Bilateral Summit

7. Visit of President Putin to India for the Annual Summit – latter part of 2020

8. SCO Heads of Government Meeting in India in November

9. RIC Foreign Ministers Meeting to be held in Russia

10. Visit of deputy PM Trutnev with 11 Governors of the Russian Far East region

Vips
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3045
Joined: 14 Apr 2017 18:23

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Vips » 05 Jun 2020 17:38

India should stop wasting its time on briefing Russia as Russia will always try to protect China's interests which will always be inimical to us. On Afghanistan it has already taken a position which favors China/Pakistan/Taliban. Trump invited Russia into the expanded G7 group ending its isolation but it is protesting the US move to expand G7 and wants China to be included in the group. Russia does not care for India's strategic interests and it is in reality China's bitch and errand boy.

Vips
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3045
Joined: 14 Apr 2017 18:23

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Vips » 11 Jun 2020 07:50

G-7 invite to Russia, India targets China: Russia.

While Russia sees itself as an "honest broker" for dialogue and peaceful resolution of international disputes, Moscow won't interfere in the SinoIndian military standoff as it's a bilateral dispute, said top Russian Parliamentarian and chief of Federation Council (upper house of Parliament) international affairs committee Konstantin Kosachev


The Russian lawmaker also said Moscow wasn't enthusiastic about US President Donald Trump's invite to 4 countries, including Russia and India,
for G-7 as it didn't want to join any bloc or alliance against China.


On Trump's G7 invite though, India and Russia have divergent views. While India was quick to accept the invite, extended to Modi by the US president, Russia has continued to raise questions saying that it was meant to isolate China.


Russia has laid it out clearly it will bat for China and will not care for supporting something if that favors India over china.Truly China's Bitch.

vimal
BRFite
Posts: 638
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby vimal » 11 Jun 2020 08:00

Russia is doing what all rational nation state would do. Name calling in juvenile.

Vips
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3045
Joined: 14 Apr 2017 18:23

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Vips » 12 Jun 2020 17:42

Rational Nations do not ask their 'friend country' to overlook its strategic interests and accept its enemies policy(Russia asked us to overlook our Kashmir claims and join the Chinese OBOR). It is one thing to offer friendly advice and another to do pimping.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4891
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby chola » 13 Jun 2020 14:41

We need to think long and hard about Russian systems:

https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/06/13/why-subramanian-swamy-doesnt-want-india-to-use-s-400-missiles-against-china.html


On Friday, Swamy tweeted a warning to the Narendra Modi government to not use the S-400 missile system in a conflict with China. Swamy wrote, "The Namo government would be well advised not to use S400 in a possible battle with China. This is because S400 is made with Chinese electronics. Russia is today a junior partner of China". China was the first export customer for the S-400, buying the missile system in 2014 and taking delivery of the first units in 2018.
...
This is not the first time Swamy has warned against the S-400 missile system. In December 2019, Swamy warned the presence of Chinese electronics would make the missile system "compromised" in a war with Pakistan, in addition to the risk of US sanctions. Swamy then tweeted, "Expect a deadly US Sanctions blow early next year because of the S-400 purchase from Russia which weapon has embedded China's electronics. S-400 is a fine weapon but compromised in a war with Pakistan. On a cost-benefit-risk analysis: Bad".


Yagnasri
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9866
Joined: 29 May 2007 18:03

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Yagnasri » 13 Jun 2020 18:05

Philip wrote:Hannibal took elephants across the Alps remember.


They are African ones. Not Indian ones.

darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3098
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby darshan » 13 Jun 2020 18:40

Answer isn't to cancel the S400 buy. The answer is to have ability to identify such weaknesses and then not buy as India is still an import nation. US has many reasons to not sanction India. The main being the India exposing the intentional weakness in Russian system.

M_Joshi
BRFite
Posts: 195
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 00:06

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby M_Joshi » 14 Jun 2020 00:45

chola wrote:

On Friday, Swamy tweeted a warning to the Narendra Modi government to not use the S-400 missile system in a conflict with China.



This doesn't help Swamy's reputation of being a US stooge.

Manish_Sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4701
Joined: 07 Sep 2009 16:17

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Manish_Sharma » 14 Jun 2020 01:46

chola wrote:We need to think long and hard about Russian systems:

https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/06/13/why-subramanian-swamy-doesnt-want-india-to-use-s-400-missiles-against-china.html


On Friday, Swamy tweeted a warning to the Narendra Modi government to not use the S-400 missile system in a conflict with China. Swamy wrote, "The Namo government would be well advised not to use S400 in a possible battle with China. This is because S400 is made with Chinese electronics. Russia is today a junior partner of China". China was the first export customer for the S-400, buying the missile system in 2014 and taking delivery of the first units in 2018.
...
This is not the first time Swamy has warned against the S-400 missile system. In December 2019, Swamy warned the presence of Chinese electronics would make the missile system "compromised" in a war with Pakistan, in addition to the risk of US sanctions. Swamy then tweeted, "Expect a deadly US Sanctions blow early next year because of the S-400 purchase from Russia which weapon has embedded China's electronics. S-400 is a fine weapon but compromised in a war with Pakistan. On a cost-benefit-risk analysis: Bad".



SuSwamy is always attuned to likes and dislikes of USA deep state.

Hence before Raul vinci SuSwamy started opposing Rafale saying it's too expensive to operate as its Canards need to be replaced every few months. As USA wanted us to buy fat panting f16s/f18s instead.

Now for some reason reason american deep state doesn't want us to buy S-400, please notice they don't object to ka-226, Talwar Frigates deals but S-400 PARTICULARLY.


BTW many of American defense systems have Chinese parts too.

Just couple of days back SuSwamy was boasting of his special deep connections with chinese leadership since 4 decades, and how he managed single handedly to convince them to open Kailash Mansarovar route.

Manish_Sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4701
Joined: 07 Sep 2009 16:17

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Manish_Sharma » 14 Jun 2020 02:07

M_Joshi wrote:
chola wrote:


This doesn't help Swamy's reputation of being a US stooge.

USA isn't objecting to ka 226 Helicopters deal OR 4 Talwar Frigates deal. USA is objecting vehemently to S-400 deal exclusively & suSwami is in tune with them although he covers it beautifully with Chinese chips excuse, as if our armed FORCES aren't aware of that and they will not ask Russia to replace them with ours. Didn't IAF ask French to replace Rafale's original Helmet with Israeli one,as Israeli was superior? Same way many things in S400 will be different than Russian OR cheeni S-400s.

kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4066
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby kit » 14 Jun 2020 04:03

Manish_Sharma wrote:
M_Joshi wrote:
This doesn't help Swamy's reputation of being a US stooge.

USA isn't objecting to ka 226 Helicopters deal OR 4 Talwar Frigates deal. USA is objecting vehemently to S-400 deal exclusively & suSwami is in tune with them although he covers it beautifully with Chinese chips excuse, as if our armed FORCES aren't aware of that and they will not ask Russia to replace them with ours. Didn't IAF ask French to replace Rafale's original Helmet with Israeli one,as Israeli was superior? Same way many things in S400 will be different than Russian OR cheeni S-400s.


S SWAMY was/ is considered a CIA agent in the 80s , anyone remembers those episodes ?

Manish_Sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4701
Joined: 07 Sep 2009 16:17

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Manish_Sharma » 14 Jun 2020 13:39

^yes

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4621
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Cain Marko » 16 Jun 2020 10:04

Irrespective of Susus silly theories I feel there is a distinct possibility that the s400 is pak centric in any case. It's usp makes it a game changer in this regard.

1. It is redundant as an abm system since the pdv/pad combo is excellent for intercepts in the same BM category of intermediate range.
2. The Chinese don't really field shortish ranged ALCMs carried by fighters for the strategic role. This is a tsp tactic via babur and nasr types carried by fighters. Perfect for for the s400s USP,... The vlrsam.
3. The s400 would allow the IAF to play to it's strength by maximizing the use of its airbases and fighters vs China, something the Chinese severely lack, in case of a 2 front attack. The pakis will be completely kept in check via point defence fighters and the s400. Everything from their aew to heavily armed lumbering fighters will be kept at bay. A small force of mrca types will ensure air superiority and offensive capacity, this will be even more apparent when the Navy has 2CVs and can bring to bear additional fulcrums.

The s400 basically allows the IAF to fully concentrate a large amount of its forces on the Chinese. Of course if it's anti stealth features are legit, it could be super useful against the Chinese when they start fielding their j20 types.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21053
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Philip » 16 Jun 2020 13:06

Russia has just accused the Chinese of spying after arresting the pres. of its Arctic Social Sciences Academy,Valery Mitko.
He's accused of providing China with classified sub-detection tech.,etc.
Despite apparent closness to traditionally were invaded from the east.Napoleon and Hitler were exceptions. Russians have more in common with European nations than Asian. Remember that the Romanovs were related to the British royal family. The current Russo- Chin bonhomie is of expediency.
A sizeable part of the Ru forces remain on thf Chin border and likewise. Putin has a better personal relationship with bumbling Trump than sinister XI.

What Putin has done is to have ended the "robber baron" regime of the drunken lout Yeltsin.He was so drunk aboard an aircraft once,that he couldn't even receive the Irish PM at the airport on one occasion! Yeltsin's oligarch pals fled Russia for the UK from where for several decades they plotted to overthrow him by by organising conspiracies in cahoots with Brit. and other western intel. outfits. Unable to do so they planned and undertook false flag assassinations and attempted ones of Ru low-level defectors living in Britain who had been in exile for several years,trying to put the blame on various state individuals, by implication that somehow Putin gave the orders.

Putin has also carefully transformed the Ru military establishment in shambles after the collapse of the USSR.The strat. defence division has got the most attention ,esp. the SSBN fleet. In a few days time the 75th. anniv. of the fall of Berlin in WW2 will take place featuring both Indian and Chinese troops in the parade.

srin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2033
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:13

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby srin » 16 Jun 2020 18:42

Vips wrote:Rational Nations do not ask their 'friend country' to overlook its strategic interests and accept its enemies policy(Russia asked us to overlook our Kashmir claims and join the Chinese OBOR). It is one thing to offer friendly advice and another to do pimping.


Unfortunately for us, the Russia-US cold war and the post-Crimea sanctions pushed Russia into the China's arms. Outside our control and outside of Russia's control.
At the same time, Russia also generally seems to treat us as the India of the USSR times - a customer for arms and not as a partner. Yes to T-10, Akula and S400 but no to partnership in FGFA. That is what I'm upset with them about. I don't care what they say in public, as long as they support us strategically by helping us become strong.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4621
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Cain Marko » 17 Jun 2020 10:22

srin wrote:[ Yes to T-10, Akula and S400 but no to partnership in FGFA. That is what I'm upset with them about. I don't care what they say in public, as long as they support us strategically by helping us become strong.

Actually I'm not sure this is exactly the case. iirc. The russkis were all for India to participate on the pakfa from day one. I recall of such overtures through the early 2000s. Indian babus took their time and by the time they wanted to join, it was already first flight and not much rnd left to participate in.

It was similar with al31fp deep tech too. Hal didn't want to go any deeper. The russkis were ready. If they were willing enough with ssbn reactors, I'm not sure they'd have to much trouble with the rest provided the $s followed.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21053
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Philip » 20 Jun 2020 07:22

MIG-31s, which are AWACS killers,Backfires,nuclear subs offered way back when Adm.Pereira was chief too.He wanted the IN to float before it could swim and the U-209 acquisition and sub building programme began,only to be sabotaged by VP Singh and his allegations about HDW kickbacks never proven and dumped by the courts decades later. The Soviets/ Russians wanted us to dominate the IOR with these systems.Even the Gorshkov- VikA was offered to us when no western nation wanted to give us a carrier,that too a second hand one requiring major renovations.
Had the govts. of the day seized these opportunities, it would've seen the IN operating in the ICS after dominating the IOR.

Vips
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3045
Joined: 14 Apr 2017 18:23

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Vips » 20 Jun 2020 19:12

That was then when Russia was short of friends and having a heavyweight like India in its camp suited it. Right now if there is a war with china i will consider ourselves lucky if Russia gives us various spares/parts that would be required to keep our armed forces in meaningful action. I hope india has contingencies worked out as Russia cannot be trusted given its lap dog status to china.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21053
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Philip » 24 Jun 2020 18:38

The DM has been assured by the Russians that if the shit hits the fan with China,there will be no stoppage of spares,arms,etc. and delivery of critically reqd.items are being accelerated.

There was a media report today about the AK deal running into trouble becos of the price,after the cost of manufacture by the OFB was gound to be higher than estimated. This is a hard fact we have to realise,that ANY weapon system made in India will be more expensive than bought outright from the OEM as we're seeing with MKIs,T-90s,Scorpens subs- major cost overruns,Tejas- which has signifiant foreign content,etc. Our DPSUs have an inefficiency quotient that can't be easily overcome.The services havd been complaining for decades
about the same.In the case of the arty.,a great success story,pvt. players such as L&T, Kalyani and Tatas, have worked wonders along with the OFB making an improved Bofors clone,Dhanush.

Make a list of Ru weaponry inthe arsenal of the 3 services,Ru has been our most dependable ally,wiling to give us that qualitative edge over China and Pak with weaponry which the west are reluctant to part with at far greater cost too for comparative systems. Just one example.China's nuclear attack subs are relatively noisy because their size is smaller,not allowing for adequate rafting provisions for noisy mechanical eqpt. aboard.
They are nowhere close to US Los Angeles SSNs.US evaluation has it that Ru Akula-1 subs are quieter than late model LA class SSNs too. Our Chakra is supposed to be an Akula-2 sub. Not too long ago in exercises with the USN,an IN Kilo class diesel sub got the better of a USN LA class SSN. FGFA coop failed because Russia was too far ahead with development of the aircraft for us to join in meaningfully, plus we were short of skilled expert aerospace engineers given our multiplicity of programmes and limited HR assets.Cost was another factor too. We may rnd up buying it off thf shelf like the Rafales,should Chin, start fielding itz stealth fighters in large number against us and/ or transfer some to Pak.

Vips
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3045
Joined: 14 Apr 2017 18:23

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Vips » 13 Aug 2020 04:17

India-Russia to scale up military cooperation; To ink IGA later this week.

Ahead of the annual India-Russia summit later this year, several high level exchanges are scheduled between the officials of both sides. This year the annual summit scheduled for October will take place in India when Russian President Vladimir Putin will come accompanied by a high-level delegation. The focus of talks have been on the regional and international issues; also on enhancing the military cooperation as well as expediting the delivery of some platforms India has ordered.

According to the official spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), Anurag Srivastava, “The foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla and the Deputy Russian foreign minister had a talk recently. The talks were related to the recent exchanges between the top leaders of the two countries.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Putin both had spoken on July 12. Modi had congratulated the Russian leader on his successful national vote on constitutional amendments in Russia.

As has been reported earlier, an Indian Military Contingent had gone to Moscow to participate in the 75th anniversary of the victory in the 2nd world war and the defence minister Rajnath Singh had also gone there in the last week of June.

“Yesterday when foreign secretary (Harsh Vardhan Shringla) and the (Russian) deputy foreign minister spoke, they took stock of all these recent exchanges and the idea is to keep the momentum of these regular exchanges going on because due to the COVID situation, we have not been able to have visits,” he said.

More meetings coming up
Besides the India-Russia Annual Summit later this year, there will be other two major meetings including the SCO and the BRICS and the NSAs’ meetings. Also, the defence ministers of the two countries are expected to meet soon. The dates have not been firmed up.

Due to the global lockdown because of COVD-19 pandemic, both the SCO and BRICS Foreign Ministers meetings had to be postponed. No date has been decided for the meetings to happen.

India-Russia Military Co-operation
Both India and Russia are keen to further intensify their military relations by implementing contracts worth almost $ 15 billion, and also ink an Inter-Governmental Agreement under which the two sides are expected to go in for development and production of military platforms, spare parts as well, jointly. (Chai, Biskoot, Samosa's to be gobbled and signed/rubber stamped/seal embossed 8.5 X 14 sized documents in triplicate to be exchanged)

Both sides are keen on developing military cooperation, as well as fighting counter terrorism bilaterally.

As has announced last year after the annual summit, both countries have extended the agreement for mutual military and technical cooperation. This has been extended by almost 10 years and will now expire in 2030.

Almost 60 per cent of the platforms and weapons the Indian armed forces is using is from Russia. And the two countries decided to ensure there is no delay in the spare parts and there are plans to make them in India with the help of Russia.

What is India getting from Russia?

The two sides have a contract in place for the S-400 Triumf ‘SA-21 Growler’ long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems. Under the deal which is worth approximately $5.43 billion, Russia will supply five Triumf regimental kits to India for the Indian Air Force (IAF).

Also, there is the upgraded Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29UPG ‘Fulcrum-E’ fighter aircraft for various programmes.

There is joint venture between the two sides to manufacture Kamov Ka-226T ‘Hoodlum’ light utility helicopters. And once it takes off around 140 helicopters are expected to be produced locally. And they will be the main light utility helicopters for the Indian Armed Forces.

Also, the Indian Navy will be receiving four Project 11356 Grigorovich-class frigates. Two out of the four are under construction at the Yantar Shipyard (a subsidiary of the United Shipbuilding Corporation). And as per the contract two will be constructed at the Goa Shipyard Limited, India.

BrahMos Aerospace is already delivering ground- and sea-launched cruise missiles to both the Indian Army and the Navy. The joint venture with has already successfully developed and tested the air-launched variant of the weapon.

Almost 1,000 of T-90S Bhishma Main Battle Tanks, which have been made in India with the Russian Transfer of Technology are being used by the Indian Army. The production of the 3VBM42 Mango 125 mm armour-piercing fin-stabilized discarding sabot (APFSDS) rounds to be used is going on under license.

Both countries are in talks for the anti-tank capabilities to protect the troops. The Konkurs-M ‘AT-5b Spandrel’ anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), is being produced under license by Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL).

Joint Venture to manufacture AK-203 7.62 mm Assault Rifles for the Indian Armed Forces. Under this venture Kalashnikov AK-203 7.62 mm Assault Rifles 200 series will be manufactured which will fulfil Indian security agencies’ requirement for small arms.

Highly placed sources have confirmed to Financial Express Online “Later this week, there is an Inter Governmental agreement between the two countries related to the manufacturing of the world famous Kalashnikov assault rifles of the newest 200 series. There were issues related to the pricing of these rifles and the full local production. Those issues have been resolved and most liked there is a certain number of assault rifles which will come from Russia. And the balance will be produced here.”

“There is an IGA in place already, but there were some issues, (Excuse for Chai, Biskoot Samosa's)that have now been sorted out,” (Sorted for now, by design some loose end will be left in this IGA too for another 'issue' to crop up to enable the next round of Chai, Biskoot, Samosa's, Russia visits and Bribes) said the source quoted above.

g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2654
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby g.sarkar » 30 Aug 2020 18:50

https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/india-c ... s-anymore/
India Cannot Rely on Russian Defense Ties Anymore
Ideally, India would exploit a split in Russia-China relations. But there’s no split to exploit and New Delhi is better off seeking strategic compatibility elsewhere.
By Mohamed Zeeshan, August 03, 2020

India is struggling to get China to disengage in the Himalayas; meanwhile Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has been playing down New Delhi’s widely expected shift toward the United States. Late last month, Jaishankar said that India will “never be part of an alliance system.” Then he lectured Washington, saying that it has to learn to “go beyond” alliances. More recently, Jaishankar said that China should not view India through an American lens. Some analysts believe that Jaishankar’s straight talk is aimed at assuaging China. A growing lobby of thinkers in New Delhi have begun to see India’s strengthening ties with the United States as one of the causes of China’s recent belligerence in the Himalayas.
But there is another factor at play: Russia.
In recent times, India has struggled to get over its Cold War hangover – and it’s coming in the way of a policy shift toward Washington. In late June this year, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh went on a three-day trip to Moscow for Russia’s belated Victory Day parade. That trip saw a deal for the early delivery of defense equipment to New Delhi. In the days that followed, New Delhi began courting Moscow more aggressively. At one point, the Indian ambassador to Russia even floated the idea of Russian participation in the Indo-Pacific.
India’s bonhomie with Russia may not be compatible with a strong partnership with the United States to counter China. But New Delhi is making other calculations. For one, Russia is India’s oldest defense partner – if one considers Russia a successor to the Soviet Union – and New Delhi does not want to compromise those ties. Second, New Delhi is betting on inducing a Russia-China split, not unlike Nixon’s Soviet-China split in the 1970s.
But on both counts, India is making serious strategic errors. Take defense ties: While the Soviet Union partnered with India at its weakest, New Delhi is no longer in the same position. As one of the world’s largest arms importers, India now has options aplenty – from North America, Europe, and even the Middle East. During the 2015-2019 period Russia’s share of India’s defense market fell from 72 percent to 56 percent, as supplies diversified.
Yet, India’s current priority is to go beyond just buying arms and build its own technological capabilities. This includes not just building some equipment in India, but also partnering with foreign researchers and scientists to develop Indian intellectual capabilities. On a trip to Moscow last year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pitched that very aspiration to the Russians. But such collaboration requires great strategic compatibility – and that is where New Delhi’s second calculation is of interest: If India can induce a Russia-China split, there would be stronger strategic convergence between the two countries.
....
Gautam

Y I Patel
BRFite
Posts: 676
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Y I Patel » 22 Oct 2020 08:15

The first post in this page, just from last June, talks about an upcoming India-Russia bilateral summit. I recall reading another related article that this summit would involve Putin visiting India in October. That is clearly not going to happen in the next nine days, certainly not with India US 2x2 in October. So what gives?

My suspicion is that India-Russia ties are under a lot of strain due to the Chinese incursions and India's subsequent vigorous tilt towards US. Russia was always pretty huffy about India getting closer to US, and now Chinese actions have stripped Russia of any leverage in dissuading India. Russia's attempts to play a mediating role in the India-China crisis are an attempt to stem the resulting damage to India Russia ties, and I strongly suspect that India's acquiescence to Russia's mediator role was under some tacit pressure about withholding spares or delaying S-400 deliveries.

But Russia will have to pay for the neutrality and the attempts to mediate in the long run, as India has now wrested the initiative and holds a strong upper hand in the crisis. India also gets to push back against any pressure from Russia with every step closer to Quad and US via bilateral agreements like BECA.

So coming back to the lack of dates for the Putin meeting - this is a subtle but unmistakable diplomatic putdown. Under circumstances prior to May, the India US 2x2 and signing of BECA was certainly not on the cards so close to the US elections. Yet, dates for that meeting have been announced, while the long expected Putin visit to India is still hanging fire. To add to the insult, the SCO meeting of heads of state in November will now be bookended by an expanded and high profile Ex Malabar that is sure to antagonize both China and Russia. So my hypothesis is that India is sending a major signal to Russia by scheduling the India US 2x2 in October and arranging the postponed Ex Malabar in November, at times when high profile meetings with Xi and Putin have been or were supposed to be scheduled. These are, for me, the first straws in the wind. I don't think any of this will lead to a full blown rupture between India and Russia, but there may a some cooling of the relationship.

Vips
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3045
Joined: 14 Apr 2017 18:23

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Vips » 22 Oct 2020 19:18

To rely on Russia would be foolhardy. Forget antagonizing China, Russians do not have the guts to act against Turkey/Azerbaijan and have basically left the Armenians on their own inspite of having a understanding to protect them.

The Russians did not block china's attempt to discuss the Kashmir issue at the UN last year and it was only France that stood by us by threatening to Veto it.

Jarita
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2492
Joined: 30 Oct 2009 22:27
Location: Andromeda

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Jarita » 23 Oct 2020 03:02

History is truly written by the victors. Will Russia and the allied forces ever be held accountable for their war crimes on the German people? I think not. Just posting it here so that we have a record of what the Russians did in Germany, what the allied forces did. It was as bad if not worse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ywe5pF ... =emb_title

Bharatiyas are the most civilized of all people. Compared to these crazies even ISIS looks sane. I guess it depends on the power structure.

Haresh
BRFite
Posts: 905
Joined: 30 Jun 2009 17:27

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Haresh » 23 Oct 2020 16:09

Jarita wrote:Bharatiyas are the most civilized of all people. Compared to these crazies even ISIS looks sane. I guess it depends on the power structure


Rapes happen, it is not about nationality, it always has and always will. It is about the power structure as you say.
Sure the Russians did it, so did the Germans, the Allies. Moslem troops, and like it or not Indian troops.
Young highly aggressive males, it is inevitable.

The important thing is that the chain of command stops it and the officers impose harsh control and discipline.

Jarita
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2492
Joined: 30 Oct 2009 22:27
Location: Andromeda

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Jarita » 23 Oct 2020 19:23

This is not about one instance and it's not just rapes - they did a lot more. Russian troops have always crossed the line and the chain of command has encouraged it. Their reactions have been very aggressive.
My point is that we Indians always view people from our prism. Several of these Eastern European groups rival Chengis Khan.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21053
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Philip » 26 Oct 2020 02:35

Yes,the US forces in the Pacific were notorious for acquiring Japanese " souvenirs", of the human kind.American mutilation of Japanese war dead was widespread and reported widely in the global media.The Japanese described the Americans as " deranged,primitive ,racist and inhuman",fine talk forgetting their own treatment of allied prisoners,especially the infamous " death march" in the Phillippines after the fall of Corregidor ,where over 10,000 Allied and Filipino prisoners died in the march. The chief perpetrator was Lt. Gen.Masaharu Homma, aka " the Beast of Bataan" who was later tried for war crimes and executed by firing squad.No Allied generals or high- ranking officers were ever tried for their criminal acts to my knowledge! In fact,right now,watching the Nuremberg trials on film, underscores the point as
Reichsmarshall Hermann Goering so eloquently put it, " we are on trial kamerads only because we lost!"

At Nuremberg the Russian judge told his US counterparts that had they lost 27 million soldiers and civilians thanks to the Nazi invasion, where not a bomb fell upon Washington or the US,they would think differently.

What worries me today is that the US hell bent upon making Putin a scapegoat for global events where it has actually been quite culpable, continuing asinine sanctions too,is only drawing Commie China and ex- commie Russia together.Putin has just warned everyone of the possibility of a Sino- Rus military alliance which would be devastating for India.We cannot even if we wish,switch over to western milware,which will take decades,plus have empty pockets
too,unable to buy western milware like more Rafales,etc. because of the cost,twice as much as Ru arms. The pro- Cold War cretins in Washington ,familiar with that genre of diplomacy, are unfamiliar with dealing with the likes of Hu Man Chew, Lee Kee Bum, and the running dog of neo- fascism ,Xitler the Han.
The more Russia and Putin are blamed for everything ( apart from thd China Virus) from global warming to manipulating elections, assassinations, only pushes the two giants into a tighter embrace.
The Yanqui establishment should take its cue from JFK, who famously said when heavily criticised for naming LBJ ( who hated him) as his running mate and the Veep; " I'd rather have him inside the tent p*ssing out,than out side the tent p* ssing in."
Last edited by Philip on 26 Oct 2020 06:00, edited 2 times in total.

m_saini
BRFite
Posts: 283
Joined: 23 May 2020 20:25

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby m_saini » 26 Oct 2020 05:17

Let's say there is a Sino-Russian military alliance, why would that be "devastating" for India? Are the Chinese going to strong-arm Putin into not selling anything to us? or stop the spares etc?

If yes, then why wait for a mil alliance? What's stopping the chinese from doing it right now?

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23577
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby chetak » 26 Oct 2020 06:04

Jarita wrote:This is not about one instance and it's not just rapes - they did a lot more. Russian troops have always crossed the line and the chain of command has encouraged it. Their reactions have been very aggressive.
My point is that we Indians always view people from our prism. Several of these Eastern European groups rival Chengis Khan.


the russians were barbarously brutalized by the germans in WWII and they got paid back in the very same coin.

nothing for the germans or europeans to complain about.

do unto others .......... and all that other biblical stuff.

do you think that the moplahs or the bengali muslims treated the local Hindus politely

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21053
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Philip » 26 Oct 2020 06:28

Imagine a spat between the US and the PRC ,a messy situ drawing in other countries where Ru comes to the aid of the PRC and we are press-ganged by the US into a QUAD response- the way we're heading. There is no way that we can allow any country to wage war against Russia shooting from our shoulder, and inconceivable for us to do the same against the US.

A demand to put into force the various logistic and intel agreements with the US which we have signed ,plus allowing US forces to use our bases to launch warfare,or exchange of intel,etc., against Ru would indeed be devastating if those US assets were attacked while in our territory.We would be certainly warned by Ru earlier not to facilitate any help to any anti- Ru coalition or face the consequences of joining/ continuing in any such military alliance.

The Chinese would be more keen on a defence agreement with Russia rather than the other way round. Back to the '50s and '60s during the Cold War when they were tacit allies,the PRC receiving much Soviet military largesse. As much as we are hesitant in going the whole hog with the QUAD in cementing the anti-PRC alliance, so too is Russia,wary of the PRC dragging them into a conflict that they too wish to avoid. The statement from Putin is a shot across the US' bows as the US unilaterally tears up various nuclear agreements between the two CW superpowers that were largely responsible for keeping the world safe from nuclear annhilation.NATO moving its forces into former Warsaw Pact nations,most are members of the EU, is another move that rankles Russia which thought that the US would keep its word for NATO not to move into former Warsaw Pact states as given to Gorbachev by Reagan when they ended the Cold War. As the Ru- US relationship plummets further into the deep, Putin has fired this warning shot,a reminder as to a possible formation of another military bloc this time including the PRC to counter the US if it keeps on moving militarily against Ru. In fact a US- Ru alliance would be much better in combating the PRC's ambition of global domination.

If we do not spell out the limitations of our involvement with the QUAD, we could get disastrously caught in the crossfire should the balloon go up. Even if we wished it,it as said earlier,take decades before we can efectively wean ourselves from Ru milware in some form. All our JVs with Ru for critical programmes like N-subs,BMos would be at grave risk.This would only embolden the Sino- Pak combine to wage more mischief against us at home.

Y I Patel
BRFite
Posts: 676
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Y I Patel » 26 Oct 2020 07:34

India is probably not going to be too pleased to hear this:

Putin: Russia-China Military alliance can't be ruled out

Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6617
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Dilbu » 26 Oct 2020 12:12

Y I Patel wrote:India is probably not going to be too pleased to hear this:

Putin: Russia-China Military alliance can't be ruled out

This will probably be the last straw that will break the back of resistance in India to joining the Quad and embrace US alliance in full measure. If RU-China will go against US and allies, India will get caught in no man's land again if we try to be everyone's friend.

Avtar Singh
BRFite
Posts: 161
Joined: 22 Jan 2017 02:07

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Avtar Singh » 26 Oct 2020 17:46

Crosstalk today;

Washington’s unrelenting policy assault against Russia and China has already altered the world order. What remains to be seen is how Moscow and Beijing will work together to confront a hostile West. Also, will America ever be “normal” again?

CrossTalking with Marcus Papadopoulos & George Szamuely.

https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/5045 ... ar-target/

bharathp
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 88
Joined: 24 Jul 2017 03:44

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby bharathp » 26 Oct 2020 19:35

I am going to digress a bit here before pulling the discussion back on track:
1) If Russia has been able to influence US elections, how easily and effectively it may have influenced India's?
2) How much of KGB's influence is on India's polity?
no denying the fact that Russia has stood by India as a rock in so many intl issues. but it is also on Russia's interest to keep India away from USA.

coming back to the topic at hand:
1) as of now. Russia has to choose between India and China and this has been forced by China - not India.
2) If India does not get enough support from Russia against China - is it really india's fault to find support else where? (this support is not needed to keep china out militarily, but is needed to keep china in check more permanently - out of every place in the world)
3) Given that China herself wants to dominate the world, how long before they usurp Russia's position?
4) Finally, apart from a) Defense tech (Which is waning) and b) UN Veto power (which needs recalibration) what exactly can Russia provide to India given their own economy and power has been waning significantly?

Given that Russia needs a big economic partner to take on their perennial opponent - the US, either the opponent changes (from US) to china or an alliance with china takes place (against USA).

dinesh_kimar
BRFite
Posts: 522
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby dinesh_kimar » 26 Oct 2020 22:13

Putin is being smart by making the above statement. Everyone hates China right now, so the Russian hand of friendship will be rewarded by more Chinese purchases.

The West won't buy much from Russia anyway, wats there to lose ?

Putin only has a few wares to sell - Arms, Farm produce and Oil.

Arms sales are diminishing, the S-300/400 and Su-35 may have been the last purchases by China, in future they may only pick an engine from here, a radar from there. No destroyers, submarines and missiles bought for the last 10-12 years. Small arms, armoured vehicles , engineering equipment stopped much before this, early 1997 onwards.

Oil sales are great, topnotch. A 250 billion USD deal with China gives Russia at least 20 years of work and cash.

Farm produce is good too, approx. 2 billion USD per year and growing.

Stating the obvious : cash isn't the problem, their systems and products remain shitty. They don't have an improvement culture.

Eg.
- the Russians produced and sold 680 Su--27 aircraft,
- 630 Su-30,
- 270 Su- 30MKI + 20 Su 30 MKM, and
- 160 Su-30 MKK.

An obvious bonanza, but they didn't improve their aircraft industry, it's still not as high tech and reliable as the West.

The Gripen, for example, has better reliability than Russian aircraft, and it's not technologically out of reach for Russia.

Cash and sales are not the problem, the Russians are highly corrupt, each Billion in sales probably gets eaten away quickly, and they cannot improve their country much.

It's like Rajiv Gandhi's 1 rupee = = 15 paise.

Putin not incorruptible like Modi, who though slower, and not so fortunate technologically, might achieve greater success.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21053
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Philip » 27 Oct 2020 08:14

The Navalny affair was a false flag operation intended to tar Putin and Russia as the villains,so that the Nordstream 2 pipeline project,bringing gas to Germany and Europe would collapse. Cheap Ru gas feeds European nations and feeds Russia too.Even the estranged UKR depends upon Ru energy. What Russia lacks is manpower to exploit its vast eastern resources,something that the Vladivostok- Chennai corridor could assist in.

Vivek K
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2484
Joined: 15 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Vivek K » 27 Oct 2020 08:51

Is that your opinion or do you have a source for it?

titash
BRFite
Posts: 398
Joined: 26 Aug 2011 18:44

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby titash » 27 Oct 2020 09:56

Vivek K wrote:Is that your opinion or do you have a source for it?


Neither have the Americans provided proof that the Russians are guilty, nor have the Russians proved that its a false flag operation. For now, these are just theories. Could simply be a jilted lover

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4621
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Cain Marko » 28 Oct 2020 10:01

dinesh_kimar wrote:An obvious bonanza, but they didn't improve their aircraft industry, it's still not as high tech and reliable as the West.

The Gripen, for example, has better reliability than Russian aircraft, and it's not technologically out of reach for Russia..

They seemed to have been reliable enough in Syria, and their much maligned hardware including upgraded cold war designs like Tu22s and Fencers put up some very serious uptimes in a rather far away location. That kind of power projection can only be matched by the USA, nobody else.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: VTanMay and 41 guests