India-Russia: News & Analysis

prabir · Post by **prabir** » 03 Nov 2008 23:56

That won't be right. We should have continued US presence in Indian Ocean and not leave everything to Chinese and Russians.
Any way, Japan would want US to be involved in IOR for its own security.

renukb · Post by **renukb** » 04 Nov 2008 09:57

Wrong. IOR should have presence of only the regional powers within the region between SAfrica-India-Australia. We don't need the presence of any other nations here, including US/EU/Ru/China. Others should only co-operate with regional powers here. IMO, US should get out of even Diego-Garcia.

prabir · Post by **prabir** » 04 Nov 2008 22:23

then who will act as checks and balances ?

India
China
Russia
Japan

All above need someone from outside, else it becomes China's playground because India/Japan/Russia alone cannot act as balancer to China

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 07 Nov 2008 11:58

Looks like propagandists at the Stalinist yellow press as well as elsewhere that have been freely handing out certificates of 'Medvedev is his own man' are in for some surprise

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/world ... in.html?hp

renukb · Post by **renukb** » 07 Nov 2008 16:15

prabir wrote:then who will act as checks and balances ?

India
China
Russia
Japan

All above need someone from outside, else it becomes China's playground because India/Japan/Russia alone cannot act as balancer to China

China should not be allowed to dominate the IOR. Another reason why India needs Iran on our side, to check Chinese operations in TSP land. US should also understand the strategic importance of Iran, vis-avis China. (I believe China is building a naval base in TSP near Iran border or so?)

Only the the nations in the IOR region should be present in IOR region, including the nations that fall within the region of SAfrica-India-Australia...

Example India should work with Australia, Singapore (and to an extent some ME nations) etc.. Ru and japan can be Indian allies just like the US, but no perm basis for those not belonging to the region. US should get out of Diego Garcia and work with India in the region. I think DG, belonged to British raaj, pre 1947 and we must claim it.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 07 Nov 2008 16:37

If we can claim some territory because it was owned by 'British Raj' why not claim Australia,which is a somewhat bigger island than Diego Garcia..

Seriously, if we are going to have some outside power flexing muscles in our backyard, let it be Uncle because atleast there is some (if small) chance of checks and balances, public opinion, etc., making an impact on behaviour. Unelected commie murderers and thugs like Putin are not to be trusted same as fanatic barbarian mullahs.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 07 Nov 2008 18:36

Putin was elected and has a sizable following. Russian democracy may not be perfect, considering that democracy is still a new phenomenon there, but it is still democracy and a far cry from the dictatorship of the Communist Party of China.

If India wants to be the dominant power in IOR, it is important that there is a smooth transfer of power from the US Navy to Indian Navy as Indian Navy builds up its strength and capacity. The optimal scenario is when the major world powers, be it USA, Russia, China, Japan or other regional powers ply through Indian Ocean accepting Indian primacy (sphere of influence, near abroad, backyard) and national interests there. However a sudden pullout by the US Navy would not be good, because India has not been able to build her national power to such an extent, where we could take over right away, and in the absence of a dominating naval power (US or India) others may creep in, e.g. China, and India would have to fight for dominance of IOR with another power with sizable presence. US presence ensures that China does not become too strong in the area in medium term.

renukb · Post by **renukb** » 07 Nov 2008 21:51

It seems that even after 1000+ years of being ruled by outsiders we Indians have not learnt the basic lessons of not bringing outsiders in our conflicts/region whether neutral or not. We need to keep off the people not belonging to our region and clear of our region. We can co-operate, but let the US/UK or chinese or even Russians stay away from our regions and from our conflicts. No perm bases for any of them in our region.

The likes of Mir-Saadiq's are born with every generations. It appears that their gene pool have not disappeared from India completely yet or have they? As I stated once earlier also, we do have people here on BRF who are US citizens and who have taken oath and pledge to protect US interests. We need to be careful about their opinions. They may mean well, but to survive in US, they have to do what is required by US govt by them. Inviting outsiders to our region is a form of treachery.

Co-operation with foreign forces should happen, only as long as they serve mutual interests without affecting Indian interests in the region. India should not be picking up wars or create enemies out of friends in our region just to get a few goodies from the outsiders who have the know how. Indian interests are best served by keeping the western forces away from our region and with a high degree of regional co-operation. In the era of information, where information can be exchanged within minutes, regional mis-trusts can be overcome, or so I believe, by proper communication and exchange of trade and economic integration to begin with.

renukb · Post by **renukb** » 07 Nov 2008 21:54

RajeshA wrote:Putin was elected and has a sizable following. Russian democracy may not be perfect, considering that democracy is still a new phenomenon there, but it is still democracy and a far cry from the dictatorship of the Communist Party of China.

If India wants to be the dominant power in IOR, it is important that there is a smooth transfer of power from the US Navy to Indian Navy as Indian Navy builds up its strength and capacity. The optimal scenario is when the major world powers, be it USA, Russia, China, Japan or other regional powers ply through Indian Ocean accepting Indian primacy (sphere of influence, near abroad, backyard) and national interests there. However a sudden pullout by the US Navy would not be good, because India has not been able to build her national power to such an extent, where we could take over right away, and in the absence of a dominating naval power (US or India) others may creep in, e.g. China, and India would have to fight for dominance of IOR with another power with sizable presence. US presence ensures that China does not become too strong in the area in medium term.

Democracy can never be perfect. Trust me on that. Just like there can be a good dictator and a bad one, there are good and BAD democratic leaders. No system can be perfect, unless people learn to respect each others lives and their way of living and learn to live co-exist peacefully.

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 07 Nov 2008 21:57

http://www.japantoday.com/category/worl ... n-to-power

Russia’s constitution will be amended by year’s end to extend the presidential term to six years, lawmakers promised Thursday—a move that could pave the way for Vladimir Putin’s return to the Kremlin.

It would be the first change to the Russian constitution since its adoption in 1993. A six-year term could mean 12 more years as president for Putin—the current prime minister—who has not ruled out getting his old job back.

President Dmitry Medvedev, a Putin protege, had suggested raising the term from four years to six Wednesday in his first state of the nation address.

The respected business daily Vedomosti quoted an unnamed Kremlin official as saying Medvedev may even step down as early as next year to get Putin back at the helm.

“Under this scenario, Medvedev could resign early, citing changes to the constitution, and then presidential elections could take place in 2009,” the paper said.

Spokesmen for Putin and Medvedev could not be reached Thursday. Vedomosti reported that Putin’s spokesman denied that the term extension was designed was linked to Putin’s return.

Work on the amendments has already begun in the State Duma, parliament’s lower house, speaker Boris Gryzlov said Thursday.

As Russia’s president for eight years, Putin had declined to amend the constitution to allow himself a third consecutive term or to extend the length of his term. Vedomosti said this unpopular task may have been given to Medvedev, a former law professor who professes deep respect for the law.

Regardless of his title, Putin has continued to wield significant power in Russia since leaving the Kremlin in May.

A constitutional amendment would require a two-thirds majority in the State Duma, the lower house, where pro-Kremlin parties dominate. It would then need to be approved by two-thirds of Russia’s regional legislatures, which also would not be expected to pose any difficulties for the Kremlin.

While supporters in parliament said there was nothing undemocratic about a six-year presidential term, opposition leader Boris Nemtsov called the plan “extremely dangerous.”

“It is directed at the perpetuation of Putinism,” Nemtsov said at a news conference, defining Putinism as “corruption, inflation and international isolation.”

Former chess champion Garry Kasparov, a prominent anti-Kremlin activist, said the move was a sign the Kremlin was afraid of Russia’s increasingly emboldened opposition movement.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 08 Nov 2008 07:31

A sure sign of deep malaise is when even foreign press starts using words like 'anti-Kremlin' to describe opposition. They would never say 'Anti-White House' or 'anti-Pentagon' but only 'anti-Bush'. Looks as if Putin is here to stay. In any event, the Obama-led US admin full of bleeding heart liberals, give TSP a break 'experts' would make a lot of us, incl the undersigned forget all of Putin's warts

vavinash · Post by **vavinash** » 08 Nov 2008 08:25

Suppiah wrote:A sure sign of deep malaise is when even foreign press starts using words like 'anti-Kremlin' to describe opposition. They would never say 'Anti-White House' or 'anti-Pentagon' but only 'anti-Bush'. Looks as if Putin is here to stay. In any event, the Obama-led US admin full of bleeding heart liberals, give TSP a break 'experts' would make a lot of us, incl the undersigned forget all of Putin's warts

Good for Putin if he comes back to power. It would be in India's interest to stick with russia than a paki advisor infested obama administration. Does russia still allow NATO to transport essentials through their territory? Its a good bargaining chip. Just strengthen Iran with S-300's, Tor-M1s and yakhont/moskit missiles.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 08 Nov 2008 12:26

It has taken just a couple of days before the harsh reality hit Indians enamoured of a "strategic relationship" with the US of A! The US establisahment has for decades been pro-Pak in all Indo-Pak dealings.Goerge Bush and his tilt towards India wasd an aberration,along with the price of second-class status that India had to accept for the faulty nuclear deal.It is disgusting to see "Uncle Toms" like Shashi Tharoor,a loyal second class subervient lackey of the international order on TV this morning,say that India should sign the CTBT if the US does under Obama.The US has conducted thoussands of nuclear tests and has all the computer data required for designing even more deadly N-wearheads.With Obama's made up mind that Clinton should be sent to "crack" Indian and Paki heads and force a US diktat in Kashmir,the once blind Indian worthy strategists have suddenly found their sight and are howling at the next incumbent of the White House.

Pres.Medvedev is to visit India soon.There is enough time for India to carve out a new forward looking relationship with our most loyal friend Russia,who has never asked India to sacrifice our interests,nor has it asked us for military alliances as the US has done! Energy and defence cooperation are key issues that can be given a massive boost.It is past time for the GOI and our "Sub-Inspector" in charge,to abanadon their fond hope of becoming America's policeman for Asia,and look towards strengthening Indo-Russian relations which have been a cornerstone of maintaining the global balance of power.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 08 Nov 2008 13:22

Let us not go overboard. There are enough indications of Dhimmitude on the part of Obama & Co. But they are dealing with a much more toughened, stronger India than the earlier moron that turned the Whitehouse into a Whorehouse did. Obama should/will soon get the message after giving a bit of initial rope to make sure we dont start off on wrong note. As it is he has enough on his hands for next year or so.

Obama's rise should however, come as a warning to all Indian Americans and Indian media that lined up behind Obama and other democrats. Like the elephant we have been pouring dirt on our own selves.

Russia, with or without Putin is not a near time challenger to US. It is more of a nuisance maker of the North Korea/PRC kind. We can use them to send some messages to Uncle but it will not pay to play that hand beyond a point. Getting closer to Middle East mullahs will be an even bigger disaster unless you are hoping for return of glorious Moghul era.

We should be friends with Russia yes. But signing up, NO.

BTW, it is not as if Russians are all sweet and nice, it is just that they have to market their stuff differently, being followers and not leaders. Bit like Haier pricing products lower than Samsung and Sony. All superpowers are evil and Machiavellian by definition, including India when it becomes one.

prabir · Post by **prabir** » 08 Nov 2008 19:03

We should only "pretend" to listen to what new administration in US has to say. Who needs to agree with them ? No country makes another country a great power. Charity is not being dished out.

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 09 Nov 2008 03:55

This is worrying news....I hope its not the Akula we'll be leasing as it is undergoing sea trials too

Twenty die on Russian submarine

At least 20 people have died in an incident involving the failure of a fire extinguishing system on a Russian nuclear submarine, local media report.

Russian Pacific Fleet spokesman Igor Dygalo said both sailors and shipyard workers died in the incident, which occurred during sea trials.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7718156.stm

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 09 Nov 2008 04:04

The submarine, whose name and class have not been revealed, has been ordered to suspend sea trials and return to port in the far eastern Primorye territory, Capt Dygalo said.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20081027/117976941.html

The construction of the Akula II class Nerpa nuclear attack submarine started in 1991 but has been suspended for over a decade due to lack of funding. Akula II class vessels are considered the quietest and deadliest of Russian nuclear-powered attack submarines.

"The submarine, built under a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry, has been moved from the shipyard in Komsomolsk-on-Amur to a maintenance facility in the Primorye Territory and fitted with all necessary equipment. At present it is undergoing sea trials," a spokesman for the shipyard told RIA Novosti.

http://fr.rian.ru/defense/20081109/118206462.html

The Russian Navy did not specify the type nor the name of the broken submarine. At the end of October, the Shipyards of the Amour river announced the beginning of the tests at sea, in the Russian Far East, of the submarine Nerpa (project 971 Chtchouka-B, codes NATO: Akula).

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 09 Nov 2008 04:14

So it is the Akula II isn't it ???

renukb · Post by **renukb** » 09 Nov 2008 08:35

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081109/ap_ ... _submarine

According to the report yje sub is : The Russian nuclear sumbarine "Vepr" is pictured in 2004. More than 20 people were killed and another 20 injured when a fire extinguishing system was inadvertently activated aboard a Russian nuclear submarine in the Pacific Ocean, the Russian navy said Sunday.
(AFP/File)

Link Here.........

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 09 Nov 2008 17:34

Tragically it is.More news in the IN thread.Dreadful luck and an incident which should be thoroughly investigated by the FSB to rule out any foul play as the sub was to be transferred to India.We know that many of our "friends" do not want a strong IN.

There was a BBC Panorama feature today on Russia and the huge changes that Putin has brought in,giving Russia its "dignity and respect" back according to the vast majority of Russians.Even those critical of some of the Kremlin's policies totally supported Russia over the Georgian spat and praised Putin for his reforms.They also warned the west not to try and bully Russia ,especially by extending NATO's borders to the Russian border,which would produce an adverse reaction from Russia.A key indicator of how much faith Russians have in their country is the increasing birth rate,where in Moscow alone 1 lakh births took place this year.A couple interviewed said that they were confident of having two children and bringing them up successfully.The feature was very fair and objective and showed that western propaganda about Russia was just that,propaganda when compared woith the ground realities.The new evidence in the international media about Georgian indiscriminate attacks against S.Ossetian villages,a war crime that sparked off the war,shows that European nations in particular are coming round to the true facts.Demos against Saakashvili in Georgia are beginning.He may not last too long.

Tilak · Post by **Tilak** » 09 Nov 2008 22:16

CP at submarines "Nerpa". Tu bi kontined

Google Translation :

According to the latest data, the incident occurred on a submarine «Nerpa» during the running test in the Sea of Japan. This boat was built for stamelyah Amur Shipbuilding Plant.

In the latest test aboard the submarine were 208 people: members sdatochnoy team, which includes factory workers and representatives kontragentskih enterprises, as well as 81 soldier.

In the night from 8 to 9 November «Nerpe» suddenly worked fire extinguishing system with the release of freon. This substance displaces oxygen and rapidly quenching the flames. Two front compartment were automatically zagermetizirovany, and people who were there (6 crew members and 14 civilians), zadohnulis. Another 21 people injured.

According to the version Investigations Committee, the freon gas Genprokurature Russia it was the cause of death. This has already confirmed the results of forensic examinations carried out in connection with the incident at the Pacific submarine fleet, said an official of the UPC RF Vladimir Markin.

«Initial forensic examination, the results of which confirmed that the cause of death was getting into the lungs gas freon, which occurred after the release of alarm fire suppression systems in one of the compartments of the submarine», - said Markin, RIA «News».

According to some sources, Russia was intended to convey «Nerpu» for rent in India. According to the editor of the site «Naval Bulletin» Mikhail Voitenko, a secret agreement on this was signed back in 2004 and the first batch of Indian seamen scheduled to take on board the boats as early as December. However, neither Indian nor the Russian side, these figures have not yet been confirmed.

«Nuclear submarine is not accepted into the Navy and was at the stage of the factory running tests, which holds sdatochnaya factory team. Admission to the Russian Navy should have been held at the end of this year », - told the Chief of Information and Public Relations Russian Navy Igor Dygalo.

Nuclear submarine «Nerpa» (K-152, Project 971, Class «Pike-B»), which applies to third-generation submarine, was laid at the factory in 1991. Displacement submarine is 8140/12770 tons, maximum speed - 30 knots, the maximum depth of immersion - 600 meters, autonomy - 100 days, the crew - 73 men armed - 4 torpedo tubes 533 mm, 4 torpedo tubes 650 millimeters.

The very boat damage is not received. Its reactor compartment continued to work in the staffing mode. Nuclear propulsion system on board the boats are not damaged, and background radiation remained normal. At the same point Ministry of Defense of Japan, which was dedicated in the past and to monitor the situation closely - ITAR-TASS news agency.

About the incident was immediately reported to the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev, who instructed Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, the Russian Federation to assist the families of the victims and continuously inform the head of state about the situation on the submarine. Immediately flew to the site of the incident, First Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Alexander Kolmakov and glavkom Navy, Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky.

Currently, an investigation into the circumstances of the case began military investigative office for the Pacific Fleet. Monitor progress of the investigation instructed Prosecutor General Yuri Chaika. Especially for this team flew out of Moscow's main military prosecutor's office officers, headed by First Deputy Mokritsyn Fridinskogo Alexander.

The military prosecutor's office has instituted criminal proceedings under Article 352 (violation of the rules of the road and operate a warship, negligently caused death or other serious consequences), the Criminal Code. It provides a penalty of imprisonment from three to ten years.

As for the submarine itself, the CHP after she went to the scene of his temporary home in Primorye. After a while, it received salvage ship «Sayan». Also, to speedy medical assistance to victims meet «Nerpe» sent a large anti-submarine ship «Admiral Tributs». He evacuated with the submarine wounded and brought to shore. Later, all the injured were taken to hospital in Vladivostok in the Pacific Fleet (TOF).

It should be noted that military experts had already managed to voice the first versions of what happened. According to experts, it is likely that the unauthorized operation of the emergency fire-fighting system on a submarine could have occurred as a result of violations of the work sdatochnym crew, who conducted the running test submarine - RIA «News».

«Could be an error in programming, could be an error in the operation, which has caused an unauthorized work of the fire-extinguishing system», - said the expert. This version confirmed at the headquarters of the Navy - announced «First Channel».

It is the responsibility of the state of emergency on the submarine incident is likely to suffer a manufacturer. «As the boat factory and is not accepted in the alert status, the first all claims against the company. Naval crew (during running tests) is in the role of interns », - said the specialist.

Note that one of the first countries brought their condolences to Russia over the incident, became Ukraine. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko «expressed sympathy to the Head of Government Vladimir Putin and the Russian people for the tragic loss in the Sea of Japan on the nuclear submarine personnel and employees of shipbuilding enterprises».

«Empathize with the whole Russian people and all those who lost their loved ones because of the tragic accident of», - described in the message. (C)
---
Nuclear submarine is not accepted into the Navy and was at the stage of the factory running tests ...
Ie ammunition on the boat was not.

In the night from 8 to 9 November «Nerpe» suddenly worked fire extinguishing system with the release of Freon ...
More precisely, in 20.30 Moscow time.

Ksta, which means "suddenly worked? LOH was filed in the first compartment without the approval of TSP? So, son-in-law "automatically"? CHush 'some. Even in a Akhova situation (for example, in the first compartment - a full ausvays "eels" babahnula regeneration and fire - under the ceilings) first and foremost about what's happening disclosed to the TSP, and then alone with his knowledge served in emergency bay LOH ... Or to "seal" on the occasion vybega at sea were all in dyminu and to this over RBZH sent DUK? Or, in the first place there was extensive fire, cut off by anxiety zagermetizirovali staffing filed LOH, but L / s inside the emergency compartment does not cope with the situation? Or a new corps managed vsobachit station Lohan, including, without a team man? So it is altogether f any deliberate suicide ...

In short, tueva hucha "why" still remains unanswered. But even with the boat appeared certainty and a list of victims.

Casualty List (21 Injured and 20 dead) - No Indian Casualties reported..

R.I.P

Jason_B · Post by **Jason_B** » 14 Nov 2008 13:02

Russian aircraft carrier ready in 2012 if India pays $2 bln more
21:15 | 13/ 11/ 2008

SEVERODVINSK, November 13 (RIA Novosti) - The Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier could be handed over to the Indian Navy in 2012 if Delhi provides sufficient funding for the project, the director of a Russian shipyard said on Thursday.

"Construction of the ship will be completed in 2010 and tests will start in 2011, while in 2012 it will be transferred to the Indian Navy," Sevmash chief Nikolai Kalistratov said, stressing that it would only be handed over if Delhi provided sufficient funding to complete the construction.

Another shipyard executive said the market dictated that India should pay a further $2 billion.

"The market price of such an aircraft carrier varies between $3 billion and $4 billion. The ongoing maintenance and upgrade makes up 60-70% of the new carrier's cost. This is about $2 billion," said Sergei Novoselov, deputy general director of Sevmash.

A source in Russian Defense Ministry said that if India failed to foot the bill, the carrier could be given to the Russian Navy.

"If India does not pay up, we will keep the aircraft carrier," he said.

Kalistratov said the aircraft carrier was 49% complete and would be floated out before the end of this week so construction could be completed in a wet dock.

The original $750 million contract to deliver the Admiral Gorshkov to India, which Russia's state-run arms exporter Rosoboronexport signed with the Indian Navy in 2004, projected the work would be completed in 2008.

However, Russia later claimed it underestimated the scale and the cost of the modernization and demanded an additional $1.2 billion, which New Delhi said was "exorbitant."

After long-running delays and disputes, Russia and India agreed in February to raise retrofit costs for the aircraft carrier, docked at the Sevmash shipyard in northern Russia for the past 12 years, by at least $800 million.

The current contract covers a complete overhaul of the ship and equipping it with modern weaponry, including MiG-29K Fulcrum aircraft and Ka-27 Helix-A and Ka-31 Helix-B anti-submarine helicopters.

The carrier, renamed the Vikramaditya, is to replace India's INS Viraat carrier, which, although currently operational, is now 50 years old.

After modernization, the carrier is expected to be seaworthy for 30 years.

(What is great about Russsian Weaponary - Mig29 crashes every fortnight. Submarines accidents, unproven weaponary, and still our defence forces keep kissing their asses.) Its always the Cong-I who after the Russians - Why???? Geographical Ass Friend, Or Nehru's bedmate. What have they ever done for us during all these years..in crisis or wartime - just harbour in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea to watch how their weapons perform...It seems the US are far more helpful through all these years. And still we are not their reliable good friend as the Uk, Japan or Australia..Probably time will prove and tell the other part of democracy.

Jason_B · Post by **Jason_B** » 14 Nov 2008 13:21

Russia denies that NERPA was not for India...what a joke, and lucky non of our sailors and marines wrere on the Nerpa for training..

Jason_B · Post by **Jason_B** » 14 Nov 2008 13:22

http://en.rian.ru/img/118237143_free.html

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 14 Nov 2008 13:27

This is what happens if you let thugs and drunkards dictate terms to us. We should tell them go drown in their vodkas and stop buying from them. It made sense when no one else wanted to sell not anymore. Let them sell to Pakbarian animals and Chinese commies

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 14 Nov 2008 15:01

There is a pattern emerging to Russian behaviour.

First they put unacceptable conditions on delivering the Gorkshkov.
Then they reuse to transfer the technology of T90 to us.
Then there is a 'fire' on board the sub to be delivered to us, delaying it possibly indefinitely.

Seems like the Russians are not keen on selling us high tech stuff any more.

I guess that means no more Russian wings in the MRCA deal.

amit · Post by **amit** » 14 Nov 2008 15:20

There was some ronna dhona recently over the fact that India is moving into the "US camp" after ditching the old friend, the Russian Bear.

It seems that our babus foresaw what was happening much earlier than we did. It's obvious that the Goroshkov plan was hatched much earlier and the Russian were waiting for the money from India to develop the Mig29K before announcing the $2billion jack up. The 29K, a good plane that it is undoubtedly would be useless if India were to try to procure a carrier from somewhere else and would sit on land till such time as the ADS is up and running, which will take quite a while. Vodka or not the Russians realised that pretty early in the game. And I really wonder if the Nerpa will be coming our way. They undoubtedly completed the construction with money given by India. Now they don't want to give it to us. Sure they may quietly return the money but it saw their shipyard through during a difficult period. IMHO of course.

It just goes to show that there are no permanent friends or enemies in global politics. A point that should be noted by folks who catch cold at the mere mention of Uncle Sam.

amit · Post by **amit** » 14 Nov 2008 15:46

abhischekcc wrote:Seems like the Russians are not keen on selling us high tech stuff any more.

Abhi,

I have a feeling Putin has hitched his bandwagon with the Chinis. They have a lot of hard cash which they are willing to give out with few questions asked. And Russia wants the money. Putin probably thinks he can contain the long-term threat (on Siberia) which closer interaction with China can pose - even though he may be horribly wrong here. However, the Russian politics now is all about short-term gains unlike during the Soviet era when the political class was always concerned with the future (that being said, fat lot it did for them, they didn't see Gorbachov's peristrokia).

Just my 0.02 roubles.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 14 Nov 2008 15:51

abhischekcc wrote: Seems like the Russians are not keen on selling us high tech stuff any more.

I think once we have a GoI instead of Governor of India for POTUS in place the relationship between the countries will come back to their normal stance.

I would not read too much into Nerpa incident (yet)

renukb · Post by **renukb** » 14 Nov 2008 16:08

abhischekcc wrote: Seems like the Russians are not keen on selling us high tech stuff any more.

It is possible that Russia lost lots of its defense equipments building industry / technology after SU dis-integrated, mainly to Ukraine. Remember Ukraine was the most industrialised state in the SU era. I doubt if they have high tech with them now. Or it could be that Russia is wary of its high tech equipments getting exposed to India's newfound ally, the USA. I am not sure, I am just guessing.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 14 Nov 2008 16:15

Russia does not "hitch" its wagon with anyone.The Russians are an independent force and historically,are afeared of invasions from the east.The Russo-Sino border spat during the days of Mao must be remembered.Furthermore,Russia today is ideologically far apart from Communist China.Russia today is a nationalist EurAsian power which has embraced capitalism,not the crony0-capitalism that characterised the Yeltsin years.They are right now pissed off with the Chinese from copying their products and not paying royalties for them,but need their business,as well as India's which is more imortant strategically,to keep their arms industry afloat.The 5th-gen fighter,Brahmos and other sensitive projects/technology not advertised,show how Russia prefers defence cooperation with India over China.

The NATO expansion right upto Russia's borders has angered them enormously,especially as Ronald Reagan gave Gorbachev a solemn promise that the west/NATO would not expand into the Warsaw pact countries if the Berlin Wall was brought down and Germany unified.The west/NATO doublecrossed Russia by expanding NATO and the proposed stationing of ABMs in Poland ,etc.,supposedly to counter Iran! Robert Gates is fulminating against Russia which is only going to "heat up" the Cold War-2 even more.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... reats.html

US accuses Russia of Cold War intimidation over missile threats

The American Defence Secretary has launched a furious attack on Russia accusing it of Cold War brinkmanship in its threats to position nuclear weapons on its European border.

By Bruno Waterfield in Brussels and Henry Samuel in Paris
Last Updated: 1:42AM GMT 14 Nov 2008

Robert Gates claimed the Kremlin was trying to intimidate President-elect Barack Obama into dropping American plans for a new missile defence system based in eastern Europe.

The row overshadowed a European Union summit designed to improve relations with Russia.

Mr Gates, who is tipped to keep his job in Mr Obama's new cabinet, said: "Within hours of the conclusion of the American election, Russian President Medvedev responded by threatening to place missiles in Kaliningrad – hardly the welcome a new American administration deserves.

"Such provocative remarks are unnecessary and misguided. Rather than engaging in the kind of rhetoric associated with a bygone era, the US would prefer that Russia works with us to combat mutual security threats."

Mr Gates, speaking in Estonia, hinted strongly that threat to place the short-range Russian missiles, in territory neighbouring the EU countries of Poland and Lithuania, was intimidation.

"Quite frankly I'm not sure what the missiles in Kaliningrad would be for," he said Gates. "After all, the only real emerging threat to Russia's periphery is Iran, and I don't think the Iskander missile has the range to get there from Kaliningrad."

Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian President, made the threat just a day after President-elect Obama triumphed in the US presidential elections last week.

Speaking in France ahead of the EU summit yesterday, the Russian President promised Moscow would reconsider the deployment.

But he said it would happen only if the new Washington administration climbed down on plans to place 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a missile-tracking radar in the Czech Republic.

"We are ready to abandon this decision to deploy the missiles in Kaliningrad if the new American administration, after analysing the real usefulness of a system to respond to 'rogue states', decides to abandon its anti-missile system," he said.

Vladimir Chizhov, Russian Ambassador to the EU, confirmed that the latest threat by Moscow was an attempt to make Mr Obama reconsider the anti-missile system.

"I do not want to prejudge any decision that President Obama will take but it is best for him to know what Russia will do if he goes ahead," he said.

President Medvedev will use the EU summit, hosted by French President Nicolas Sarkozy in the city of Nice, to push his idea for a Russian security umbrella designed to replace Nato.

"We are ready to reflect on a system of global security with the US, the countries of the EU and the Russian Federation," he said.

US President George W. Bush's missile defence plan has Nato-wide backing, and the active participation of Poland and the Czech Republic, with the aim of protecting the West against missile strikes from so-called "rogue states", notably Iran.

amit · Post by **amit** » 14 Nov 2008 16:55

Philip wrote:Russia does not "hitch" its wagon with anyone.The Russians are an independent force and historically,are afeared of invasions from the east.The Russo-Sino border spat during the days of Mao must be remembered.Furthermore,Russia today is ideologically far apart from Communist China.Russia today is a nationalist EurAsian power which has embraced capitalism,not the crony0-capitalism that characterised the Yeltsin years.They are right now pissed off with the Chinese from copying their products and not paying royalties for them,but need their business,as well as India's which is more imortant strategically,to keep their arms industry afloat.The 5th-gen fighter,Brahmos and other sensitive projects/technology not advertised,show how Russia prefers defence cooperation with India over China.

Philip,

You are right is observing that Russia has become a capitalist state. However, it is a capitalist state without the other trappings which act as checks and balances to capitalism, like a free press not under constant pressure and free judiciary etc. As result it's like the Wild Wild West of captialism. To state otherwise is IMO not taking cognizance of the facts on the ground and the history of robber baron type of capitalism being witnessed in Russia over the past decade. For example read this National Geographic report to get an idea of what is happening.

In effect there are more similarities between how a communist dictatorship - China - does business and how a supposedly capitalist democracy - Russia - does business and no amount of pious talk about democracy flowering in the Czar's own country can hide this fact.

As such Russia is looking for hard cash, especially with the price of oil tumbling and China has the cash to give out. And this is one area India can never match the Chinese, not only because we don't have a $1.5 trillion forex kitty but also because we have too many checks and balances. I'm sure if given a free hand the Navy would rather give in the $2 billion for Goroshkov and be done with it, and we could afford that. But the government can't easily agree to that for obvious reasons.

For this reason the Russians will find it much easier to get into bed with China than India. And with his new-found confidence due to oil money Putin thinks he can contain China at a later date. He may or may not be able to do that. China's ultimate want is land, the whole of Siberia and its mineral riches. But that's something in the future and I don't think Putin is too bothered about it now.

One needs to admit that however much spin we try to give it with Brahmos and other projects, Russians have been screwing us regularly, be it with Su-30, T-90s, Goroshkov, and now it seems also with Nerpa.

Russia has been a great friend of India in the past no doubt but do remember during the Cold War era India was also a great friend of USSR, giving it a toehold in Asia and in the Non-aligned movement. Both needed each other equally and hence Bear hug, it was not due to the goodness of heart of the Russian Bear.

Things have changed now and the world is a totally different place. And with that change alignments are also changing.

As I wrote in an earlier post - and something which every here knows - in politics and international relations there's no permanent enemy and no permanent friends. The sooner we leave sentimentality and the nostalgia of a polarized world of the Cold War, the better it will be for us.

I don't blame Russia, it's just that global circumstances are ensuring India and Russia drift apart. The sooner we realize that the better for us.

JMT

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 14 Nov 2008 17:25

amit wrote: One needs to admit that however much spin we try to give it with Brahmos and other projects, Russians have been screwing us regularly, be it with Su-30, T-90s, Goroshkov, and now it seems also with Nerpa.

The above statement; plus the other statement where the National Geographic is being taken as gospel for real face of Russia (just like the economist is the true unbiased Indian observer) are essentially the severe assumptions that come in the way of sanctity of the above analysis.

When we talk of Russia screwing India

we are complaining about Russian failures in a context of Russian Indian mil cooperation -- one which despite all the naysayers is still the main bulwark of our forces; a far greater failure in far less dealings are given a short shift since oh that's USA and they are always like that.

In the overall context the failings of Russia though many are still inconsequential with respect to what the relationship brings is even today and on a sustained basis.

And for all the talk of "getting in bed with China" even a mundane top level analysis of the extent of Russia-India and Russia-China trade is more than telling.

As such there is no merit in assuming that Putin who has pulled Russia out of the Yesltin mess and makes it better everyday would be so dramatically shortsighted as to not look at the Chinese threat or to underplay it. In the last 20 years; shortsightedness has been more of a American trait (hung out for display for all to see) rather than Russian one.

The Western media has traditional crocodile tears for a lack of free Russia -- they would certainly like a Russia freer for US led Shell to exploit for sure. But other than that -- there is very little evidence that Russia in practice is no more corny capitalist country compared to a GoTUS of Cheny and co led by their oil majors.

If folks were not so enamored by the "golden" west; they would see that all that their rags print is not necessarily very objective.

-------------------------

And Yes if I was Russian head watching India drift slavishly into US order; would I be still doling out goodwill? I truly wonder -- if we are not going be strategically aligned to Russia why would it bother with not helping our strategic enemies to the extent Russia is also not affected?

And if some one really missed it -- I am totally with Philip on this one.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 14 Nov 2008 17:41

I honestly don't think that the Nerpa incident was a Russian anti-Indian ploy.More than a dozen of their crew/workers died! However,there is a certain sang-froid when it comes to business,the "hard cash" reality and Byzantine bargaining goes on these days.especially as Russia struggles-quite successfulkly under Putin to bring the country round after the disastrous Yeltsin years.The recent BBC Panorama feature showed how far Russia has advanced under Putin,who has a massive 90% popularity,with even Kremlin critics praising him for many of his actions.The difference in business between China and India is that China is more cash rich than India and therefore Russia needs its business.When it comes to defence ties,India is still preferred because we have no axe to grind with each other and can never be rivals .

renukb · Post by **renukb** » 14 Nov 2008 17:46

When it comes to defence ties,India is still preferred because we have no axe to grind with each other and can never be rivals .

But if all the deals goes the Gorshkov way, Russians will be silently pushing Indians into US lap, with out any enemity between the two nations. I hope sanity prevails between both Russian and Indian leadership. Or else, I would not be surprised if India plans to buy a A/C from USA in the near future.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 14 Nov 2008 18:07

renukb wrote:But if all the deals goes the Gorshkov way, Russians will be silently pushing Indians into US lap, with out any enemity between the two nations.

I wonder what is the cause and what is the effect -- the fact that India is going closer to US is pushing Rus away or is it the other way round.

renukb · Post by **renukb** » 15 Nov 2008 22:40

The Russians are coming
By Sultan-Khan Zhussip

The secretary general of the Commonwealth of Independent States' Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Nikolai Bordyuzha, recently announced the planned formation of an international force in Central Asia that "should be prepared to repel any threat".

On November 9, after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev submitted an agreement on the expected 5,000-strong force to the state Duma (parliament) for approval, Bordyuzha said that the force is to be formed immediately on the agreement's ratification by all participating states.

prabir · Post by **prabir** » 16 Nov 2008 00:01

We have to play hard ball diplomacy with Russia, US and France to get the best deal. Now we have the money to spend and it must be spent on creating positive spill overs.

amit · Post by **amit** » 16 Nov 2008 10:51

Philip wrote:I honestly don't think that the Nerpa incident was a Russian anti-Indian ploy.More than a dozen of their crew/workers died! However,there is a certain sang-froid when it comes to business,the "hard cash" reality and Byzantine bargaining goes on these days.especially as Russia struggles-quite successfulkly under Putin to bring the country round after the disastrous Yeltsin years.The recent BBC Panorama feature showed how far Russia has advanced under Putin,who has a massive 90% popularity,with even Kremlin critics praising him for many of his actions.The difference in business between China and India is that China is more cash rich than India and therefore Russia needs its business.When it comes to defence ties,India is still preferred because we have no axe to grind with each other and can never be rivals .

Philip,

Sorry for the late reply. I agree that the Nerpa indcident was not anti-Indian and neither was it intentional. As such I was not referring to that incident per se but was alluding to the persistent denial by the Russian military that the boat was meant to be leased to India.

I could understand the secrecy initially a few years ago. But now with the Indian Navy/military opening admitting that it's leasing the boat and talks about Indian crew going to train in Russia, I'm a bit amazed at the brazenness of the denial. To an observer it would seem that the Russians and Indians are talking about two different submarines.

Given our bitter experience with the Gorashkov and the arm twisting that we are going through, I really wonder if this is another start to a fresh round of a shake out of the Indian military by the Russians. I hope I'm wrong but I'm sure you'll understand my apprehension.

There's another point that IMO is worth considering. Putin has ambitions to bring back Russian military glory and he's increasingly taking a confrontationist approach with the West. By itself I think, from an Indian perspective, it's rather welcome. However, given that he's trying to beef up Russian military power, I just hope he's not thinking that given up a brand new and lethal nuclear power submarine for the 650-700 billion (I may be wrong with the figure, so apologies in advance) may not be worth it. Again I hope I'm wrong but recent events don't inspire confidence. Do also note that a refurbished Goroshkov would also be a very useful addition to the Russian Navy - I would evaluate the recent statement of either India pays up $2 billion more or the ship will be inducted into the Russian Navy from that perspective.

amit · Post by **amit** » 16 Nov 2008 11:11

Sanku wrote:If folks were not so enamored by the "golden" west; they would see that all that their rags print is not necessarily very objective.

So National Geographic magazine is a rag?

I'm sure this statement will rate very highly with some of the more interesting comments that one has seen over the years in BRF.

Anyone who bothered to read the National Geographic article on Siberia and understood it would have noticed that the article overall is very positive about Russia and its development of Siberia which is changing the way people live there and raising standards of living (for example see the part about a heated swimming pool in an ordinary kindergarten school, something very important in a Tundra zone).

However, the article also highlights that there's a lot of corruption and, in order to grow fast, Russia is taking a lot of short cuts. These are two attributes that apply to China as well and that is what I wanted to highlight and hence my reference to the article. However, I didn't realise I was referring to a "rag".

A general comment:

Whether we like it or not we are almost exclusively dependent on the media of the "golden" west for information about a large part of the world, Russia and China included. The only exception could be those who understand Russian or Mandarin. Why even online translation is provided by new media of the "golden" West, how can we be sure the translation is not done by a CIA programme?

And yet some folks, with great perceptiveness decide which is a "rag" and which is the epitome of objective reporting based on the pet prejudices.

It goes something like this. I start with a few pet ideas (everyone, including me, has them). When I see those ideas written in a some western media, then that immediately beomes the genuine stuff. However when something not conforming to my pet ideas appears then that immediately become a "rag" including a not for profit organization like National Geographic which does not take political positions, unlike the Economist!

Unfortunately the same approach is taken with the domestic press. So, depending on the day and report, for example the TOI can be described variously as the Times of Islamabad or Toilet paper etc. Yet at other times, or even at the same time but different thread, articles printed in it are treated with utmost importance and posted in full with lengthy critique following it, commenting on the pearls of wisdom that has been written.

Sanku,

Your pet prejudices come flowing out in technicolor. My comments in response to Phillip's post were about ongoing Russia and India defence projects and the difficulties being experienced that are not a figment of my imagination but documented facts. Yet you immediately jump in with standard key words: USA, golden West, India-US relations etc and you allude to my alleged admiration and boot licking of all things related to Uncle Sam.

As a result, I'm sure you will forgive me for not taking any of your comments/rants seriously.

Cheers!