India-Russia: News & Analysis

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby arnab » 19 Nov 2008 11:54

amit wrote:[

Could you care to elaborate what exactly India has to say sorry about?

Destruction of any relationship is usually a two-way street. And you don't call a client-supplier relationship a strategic relationship and all in the name of being pragmatic and keeping Ego aside.



Atleast the US supplied the pakis with soyabean in lieu of the F-16s. I wonder what we are going to get in lieu of the cost of financing the Nerpa ? :) I guess what really galls is that for years we used to pay peanuts and get monkeys from Russia. Now we pay full price and still get monkeys

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby amit » 19 Nov 2008 12:04

arnab wrote: I guess what really galls is that for years we used to pay peanuts and get monkeys from Russia. Now we pay full price and still get monkeys


Arnab Guru,

Well said. But more than cost escalations what really gets my BP up is the brazenness of the way they are going about this whole thing.

In fact that's what needs to be looked at. Surely whatever the Russians are they are nobody's fools. Don't they realise that this Gorky and now Nerpa incidents are likely to impact other ongoing projects with India which involve considerably more $$$ than what they hope to make from their arm twisting tactics?

Or are they confident that they have sufficient number of Indians well indoctrinated in the art of putting one's Ego aside all for the cause of the Russian Bear to ensure that all these future/present projects are not affected?

I wonder! :(

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Sanku » 19 Nov 2008 12:11

amit wrote:Could you care to elaborate what exactly India has to say sorry about?


What? Nothing of course -- the question is not what India should say for but why. 8)

Ego is a pain -- it doesn't matter if its for US or Russia; it is you and others who has ascribed the very meaningful dissection of Nuclear deal to be based on ego -- not me; I cant help it if you lack understanding of nuanced positions and hence ascribe extrapolated positions to others.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Sanku » 19 Nov 2008 12:14

arnab wrote:Atleast the US supplied the pakis with soyabean in lieu of the F-16s. I wonder what we are going to get in lieu of the cost of financing the Nerpa ? :) I guess what really galls is that for years we used to pay peanuts and get monkeys from Russia. Now we pay full price and still get monkeys


The whole level of discussion goes down to dumps when we start pulling out statements like
"Russia is screwing india"
"Russia is corrupt yada yada yada yada because NG said so"
"We get monkey's from Russia"

The comparison of Pakistan with India w.r.t. F 16 is also mind boggling.

I have a request -- yes its a start forum; but can we at least get the basic level of seriousness and carefulness in our discussion before we post?

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby amit » 19 Nov 2008 12:16

Sanku wrote: nuanced positions


Nuanced positions. Always good to be nuanced but the problem is two fold.

The first more extreme one is that if you nuance yourself too much you cease to have a position.

The second, and lesser, problem is you should always keep in mind that just like you other folks can also have "nuanced" positions.

And incidentally Sanku you don't have to allude to my lower mental abilities and lack of understanding in every post you make like a copyright footnote.

I readily agree that my mental and cognitive abilities are far lower than yours. Why not only me I'm sure everyone who reads posts made by both of us realise that as well.

Good to have that out of the way, Na? :rotfl: :rotfl:
Last edited by amit on 19 Nov 2008 12:19, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Sanku » 19 Nov 2008 12:19

amit wrote:Or are they confident that they have sufficient number of Indians well indoctrinated in the art of putting one's Ego aside all for the cause of the Russian Bear to ensure that all these future/present projects are not affected?


I wonder when people put aside the egos they do it for mother India or for Russia -- I guess some folks can only put their egos aside for other masters and hence see all the world reflected in their own image.

I personally think its the current GoI which has neglected relationships with Ru and given out the message that its now beholden to US; thus Russia does not think it worthwhile to care for what India does any more.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby amit » 19 Nov 2008 12:24

Sanku wrote:thus Russia does not think it worthwhile to care for what India does any more.


And so you are agreeing that our relationship with Russia is no longer a strategic relationship and has been reduced to a client-supplier one - and India has no right to expect a simple adherence to international convention of honouring a contract once its signed?

Gosh Sanku, I really hope you understand what you are saying as you slide through the urge to respond to every post without pausing to think what you are writing.

You are sounding like an abject apologist for Russia.

Sanku wrote:I guess some folks can only put their egos aside for other masters

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby arnab » 19 Nov 2008 12:28

Sanku wrote:
I wonder when people put aside the egos they do it for mother India or for Russia -- I guess some folks can only put their egos aside for other masters and hence see all the world reflected in their own image.

I personally think its the current GoI which has neglected relationships with Ru and given out the message that its now beholden to US; thus Russia does not think it worthwhile to care for what India does any more.


Oh you mean because the current govt has ignored russia, and the russian ego is bruised? Damn - how do you say 'put aside egos' in Russian? Alternatively you think India should play the role of the 'abused wife' in the relationship. You know - It's not Russia's fault really, sure he drinks sometimes and steals money from me - but he really really loves me. And anyway this would not have happenned if I had not looked at the US.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby amit » 19 Nov 2008 12:31

Sanku wrote:
amit wrote:Could you care to elaborate what exactly India has to say sorry about?


What? Nothing of course -- the question is not what India should say for but why. 8)


Oh I missed this gem. Bro you're on a roll here! :rotfl: :rotfl:

My question was what India has to say a sorry about.

And your response is: the question is not what India should say for but why?

I agree with full humility such "nuanced" subtleties are beyond my cognitive abilities. :eek: :eek:
Last edited by amit on 19 Nov 2008 12:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Sanku » 19 Nov 2008 12:32

amit wrote:
Sanku wrote:thus Russia does not think it worthwhile to care for what India does any more.


And so you are agreeing that our relationship with Russia is no longer a strategic relationship and has been reduced to a client-supplier one - and India has no right to expect a simple adherence to international convention of honouring a contract once its signed?


Amit -- I really dont know where you come up with these extrapolation from; in a client-supplier relation ship the letter of the contract is important and it is honored as I am sure Russia will do in this case. The letter of the agreement was never the issue was it? Evey one with basic knowledge of economy and biz knows that nearly every contract has exit clauses to get out in case people change minds.

The issue with Russia has never been with the letter but the intent. If we are down to the letter thingy -- yes then the strategic relationship is dead.

And just in case if you haven't noticed -- I have been lamenting the slow death of the strategic part of the relationship -- I dont care much for the letter of the contract. Sighh....

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Sanku » 19 Nov 2008 12:35

arnab wrote:Oh you mean because the current govt has ignored russia, and the russian ego is bruised?


No dear Arnab; ignoring in Geo-pol terms means nothing like ignoring in personal relationships -- ignoring in Geo-pol terms means not spending enough time and effort to understand how the national interests of the other country is evolving and partnering to meet each others goals to the extent possible.

Why do all you folks tend to look at the geo-pol relationships in the prism of individual relationships?

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby amit » 19 Nov 2008 12:41

Sanku,

Surely a expert in geopolitics like you knows that strategic relationships between countries die when their strategic goals start to drift. So you are saying that India should align its strategic goals not by what it thinks is in its strategic well being but by what Russia thinks is in its strategic self-interest?

Do note that while opinions differ among the two major political groupings in India - NDA and UPA - about the merits of the N-deal, on a broad strategic level both groupings have agreed that India's strategic options should align itself closer to the West.

Only one political grouping in India is against a closer alignment with the US and that is the Left which wants India to play a subservient role to China in Asia. That group has been identified as being anti-Indian and rightly so.

And strategic relationships, whether with the US or Russia is never a Zero Sum Game. And the Russians know this very well and that's why they support USA when it was trying to get the Nuclear Suppliers Group to admit India.

What is happening with the arms deals is not strategic, IMHO. The Russians want hard cash with oil prices plunging from $140 to $50 in a few months. And they have got the feeling that India has no options but Russia and hence this is just old fashioned arms twisting going on.

Ego and other nice sounding things are just a figment of your imagination.

IMhumbleO of course.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby RajeshA » 19 Nov 2008 12:44

I think, when India put out a shopping list of multirole fighter aircraft, many mouths started watering. Perhaps India can put out a similar big-item shopping list for stuff that Russia could be providing, maybe another couple of Aircraft Carriers or something, which could give Russians some pause in being over-greedy wrt Gorshkov and Akulas.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Sanku » 19 Nov 2008 12:44

amit wrote:I agree with full humility such "nuanced" subtleties are beyond my cognitive abilities. :eek: :eek:


Amit; you can try -- but just this once -- saying "sorry" in this parlance means not sorry in the personal sense -- but basically understanding the trade off that needs to be made for getting Russian "toys" since we need those toys to play in the big league; and accepting Russian demands even if unfair.

In parallel of course the local industry must be built up -- I am not in favor of short term vs long terms tradeoffs. We need both and its the job of GoI to provide it to the Defence -- the money argument does not cut it.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby amit » 19 Nov 2008 12:48

Sanku wrote:the letter of the contract is important and it is honored as I am sure Russia will do in this case. The letter of the agreement was never the issue was it? Evey one with basic knowledge of economy and biz knows that nearly every contract has exit clauses to get out in case people change minds.


Since you seem to be so knowledgeable about the contract, can you elaborate what was the exit clause written into the contract? That would help folks like me to understand the Russian action.

Also you say the letter of the contract will be honoured by the Russians. Admirable sentiments I must say.

Incidentally here's a little quote which might be useful:

The letter of the law versus the spirit of the law is an idiomatic antithesis. When one obeys the letter of the law but not the spirit, he is obeying the literal interpretation of the words (the "letter") of the law, but not the intent of those who wrote the law. Conversely, when one obeys the spirit of the law but not the letter, he is doing what the authors of the law intended, though not adhering to the literal wording.


Now if Russia obeys the letter of the law - in this case the contract - then how do you explain the take it or leave it statement that either India coughs up and additional $2 billion (the second escalation mind you) or the Russians are just going to give the AC to the Navy?

The Russians are not only not adhering to the letter of the contract but they are showing the middle figure to the spirit as well.

Again Sanku, a friendly piece of advice. Look at you response before hitting the Submit button. You're tying yourself up in tangles.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Sanku » 19 Nov 2008 12:53

amit wrote:Do note that while opinions differ among the two major political groupings in India - NDA and UPA - about the merits of the N-deal, on a broad strategic level both groupings have agreed that India's strategic options should align itself closer to the West.


Now we are talking -- I think there are some confusions here --
1) Its possible to align with the west but in two different ways -- one which is detrimental to our other geo-pol interests and one in which they balance. The devil is not in the concept but execution. It is also possible to align with the west to the detriment of local interests.

I agree its a nuanced position but since we are not in the biz of pol. sloganeering we can consider the nuances.

2) The strategic alignment can also happen in different spheres -- for example we can align with west in many economic/social/trade grouping but stay out of military purchases etc.

3) There are some countries in the western bloc (say france) with which the alignment can happen on more favorable terms as opposed to some others.

Ego and other nice sounding things are just a figment of your imagination..


My dear sir; I do not ascribe ego to GoI; just some of the current folks at its helm and to some posters here who go "we should show them their place" type of statements.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Sanku » 19 Nov 2008 12:57

amit wrote:Since you seem to be so knowledgeable about the contract, can you elaborate what was the exit clause written into the contract? That would help folks like me to understand the Russian action.


I don't suppose the contract will ever be public or discussed; the basic point is the exit clauses are built in. Thats not the part of the problem (as per the info available to me -- not open source)

Now if Russia obeys the letter of the law - in this case the contract - then how do you explain the take it or leave it statement that either India coughs up and additional $2 billion (the second escalation mind you) or the Russians are just going to give the AC to the Navy?


Its actually very simple -- Ru can always fall back on the exit clauses; its precisely because neither side wants the exit clause route all the complicated negotiations are happening.

Actually its not very complicated -- you are tying yourself in the knots because you are missing the very basics.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Sanku » 19 Nov 2008 12:59

RajeshA wrote:I think, when India put out a shopping list of multirole fighter aircraft, many mouths started watering. Perhaps India can put out a similar big-item shopping list for stuff that Russia could be providing, maybe another couple of Aircraft Carriers or something, which could give Russians some pause in being over-greedy wrt Gorshkov and Akulas.


RajeshA; if the issue is just a couple of $; I would still say its a minor irritant -- the real problem is if it signifies a breakdown in relationships. (No Akula etc etc..)

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby RajeshA » 19 Nov 2008 13:07

So what do the Russians want?

Would we get the Gorshkov for no further payments, if India opens a couple of trade offices in Sukhumi (Abkhazia) and Tskhinvali (South Ossetia)?
Would constant parroting the lines, that "India considers Russia to be still a superpower", help India?
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby amit » 19 Nov 2008 13:16

Sanku wrote: I don't suppose the contract will ever be public or discussed; the basic point is the exit clauses are built in. Thats not the part of the problem (as per the info available to me -- not open source)


So you on the one hand admit that you don't have a iota of idea what's written in the contract. But you are sure that what Russia is doing is well within the exit clause of the contract? :eek: :eek: :eek:

Really Sanku just when I though you've reached the limit of surprises, you pull out another one.

And now that the contract clause is gone you pull out the familiar, my uncle's, aunt's paanwall non-open source information trick. Nice!

Its actually very simple -- Ru can always fall back on the exit clauses; its precisely because neither side wants the exit clause route all the complicated negotiations are happening.

Actually its not very complicated -- you are tying yourself in the knots because you are missing the very basics.


Again I suppose its the paanwalla which is telling you that the Indian side does not want the exit clause route to be taken. I wonder how that tallies with your earlier comment that the Finance Minister, at the prodding of the US was withholding the $2 billion, - which "among friends is no big deal" (again your comment).

Your absolutely right I was missing the basics. Am beginning to realise the agenda behind all this chest thumping.

Best of luck to you pal, your doing a great job just as you did in the T90 vs Arjun debate some months ago.

And here I was wasting time trying to have a reasonable discussion going. Gosh I'll never learn. :(
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Sanku » 19 Nov 2008 13:22

RajeshA wrote:So what do the Russians want?

Would we get the Gorshkov for no further payments, if India opens a couple of trade offices in Sukhumi (Abkhazia) and Tskhinvali (South Ossetia)?


I wish I knew; the problem here is that some folks are saying (and they may be right) that Russia doesnt want to give us these and the jacking the price is a way of leaving no other way than to exercise the exit clause; if thats true its big trouble. Not because of Gorky per se alone but what that means to the way the countries have normally been doing biz.

We will have to wait and watch (unless we get some leaks from GoI at Cab level)

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Sanku » 19 Nov 2008 13:28

amit wrote:Best of luck to you pal, your doing a great job. And here I was wasting time trying to have a reasonable discussion going. Gosh I'll never learn. :(


I think I will agree with this bit; you wont -- you want the freedom to sing songs of a certain type without acknowledging any other possibilities what so ever if that means making a sustained misinterpretation of post after post. That is par for the course for you.

Anyway let me try and say this one last time and very slowly
1) Russia is asking for renegotiation of contract -- which basically means they are not going as per the old contract. Duh
2) India always has the option of walking away as per the exit clause of the old contract.

The real issue is that
1) Walking away means a loss of def preparedness.
2) The impact of walking away on the overall relationship

And the basic core to that is -- why is the present situation in the current form. Thats it last post now please excuse me.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby amit » 19 Nov 2008 13:33

One last small question Sanku before you go.

What happened to your pledge yesterday to ignore my posts? :rotfl:

Like always you started this series of rants. And I (again) responded. That's why I was berating myself (my comment: Gosh I'll never learn). :(

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Sanku » 19 Nov 2008 13:39

It was a voluntary moratorium :mrgreen:

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby krish.pf » 19 Nov 2008 14:32

The present Carrier fiasco is the result of that our present Gov short sightedness or outright stupidity even. I know how I'd feel if India is in a strategic partnership with another country and selling it sensitive desi stuff, and if that country gets cozy with pakistan at the same time.. That's the same thing which is happening with Russia India & the U.S.

When most of our armed forces depends on Russian equipment(for good reasons.. read no strings attached & support during war, no sanctions etc) how can the gov get so ignorant. The pro-west policy in some sensitive strategic avenues has indeed undoubtedly angered Russia.

If we want to get cozy with the U.S make sure it's adversaries don't have influence in sensitive strategic matters in our country. And if we want to get cozy with Russia make sure it's adversaries don't have influence in sensitive strategic matters in our country. This stupid balancing act is going to get this country in deep trouble in the coming years.

I'd say as far as defence & other strategic issues is concerned we should remain closer to Russia and dump the U.S. For Russia is the only country to support us in case of any war with pakistan or say testing an ICBM while the democratically elected morons in the U.S will be actively debating on how to sanction us. Also the U.S has a bad habit of poking it's nose where it doesn't belong. Already the president elect is talking about Kashmir policy. Faggots! What do you expect from a country safely separated by 2 oceans and yet having forces all over the world. What is the motive behind having those bases out of their continent even after the cold war is long over.

Having said all that it is very shocking indeed that the Russians were this openly hostile. Either they are extremely pissed or some unknown high level corruption is going on there. I'd say it's mostly the former. If it is the former the solution would be to settle the dispute with less than a billion dollars and opening some embassies in the new Caucasian republics along with cutting some U.S influence in the Nuke deal by awarding most of the deal to France & Russia. That should smoothen things out, I hope.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby amanpuneet » 19 Nov 2008 16:17

Krish whn russia sell stuff to China we dont make any hulla gulla and we knw tht it will end up with paki whn reverse enginered so wht rite these ruskies have whn we do some excercise with USA r any other countary .Ruskies have not rite wht we do as we have knw rite wht they do with others if i pay someone to buy things i except him to deliver things no change the price every second day russia must knw oil and gas will not make thm best in world otherwise whole middle east would have been super power.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby RajeshA » 19 Nov 2008 16:31

Russia's thinking has become clouded by its animosity against the US, and secondly by its assessment that Russia will put favorable commercial transactions above abstract strategic relationships.

We have seen how Russia came down hard upon Ukraine with regard to gas prices for the gas flowing through the pipes feeding Europe. Similarly Belarus und Lukashenko was so cuddly-muddly with Russia, but it did not stop Russia from asking for market rates for gas, which an unreformed quasi-socialist state like Belarus could not afford. The jury is still out, on whether these arm-twisting tactics will ultimately help Russia or hurt its interests.

Russia has had some success in building up its network of pipelines into and in Europe. Similarly China and Japan too have been very eager to get pipelines from Russia. At least Kazakhstan seems to be in a comfortable bear embrace. Iranians and Syrians have warmed up to Russian defense offerings as well as nuclear technology. The Socialists in South America like Raúl Castro, Daniel Ortega, Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales, etc. still look up to Russia.

However Russia has nothing close to the Soviet Union or Warsaw Pact it had earlier. In South East Asia and Africa, it has practically lost all influence to USA and China. India is in the meantime only a client of Russian weaponry and no strategic partner anymore. Russian arm-twisting is not going to make things better. Just because everybody is screaming "Resurgent Russia" does not mean, Russia has become infallible. Russia's gains in Caucasus does not mean Russia can start thumping its chest now.

From now on, the Europeans will be doing business with Russia, that is unavoidable, but the trust factor has vanished. Now it will not be in the direction of increasing their dependence on Russian Oil and Gas but away from it. There will also be no more blank check in letting Russian Gazprom and other companies expand into Europe unchallenged. Russian high-handedness will cost Russia dearly in the long run. There is an unmistakable dissonance in the language being used in European capitals and Moscow.

I think the question before Moscow are,
o Does it need strategic relationships at all in the new world, or does it think, it can do without these partnerships?
o Does Russian interests go beyond securing its immediate periphery and keeping a few handles like Iran to put some pressure on US?
o If yes, is chest-thumping, over-greed, arm-twisting and denigrating friends really the best tactic to adopt?

Just for the record, countries have a long memory. India is not going to forget 1962, India is not going to forget any time soon, that US sent an aircraft carrier to intimidate India in 1971, and India is not going to forget that the Indian Foreign Minister was body-searched at the Moscow Airport.

Defense Industries do not survive on the local market only. They need external buyers. The sellers also need to find markets, which are not threatening to one's own state, are not over-controversial, are large enough, and can remain captive markets over a longer duration. If Gorshkov and Akula sales go awry, Russia will be losing a trustworthy market in India, because India will be moving away to other sellers.

Russia may have started thinking short-term, but that makes the nation simply a commercial supplier and not a state with superpower airs and ambitions, and as such the long-term interests of Russia could take a severe beating.

If Russia wants a strategic partnership with India, then Russia needs to provide India with the necessary clarity of its thinking, with space and with incentives. It is not a question, of whether India has started moving away towards the US, but rather that Russia has been found wanting in expanding its dialogue with India and Indian society. Russia too has been enamored by Europe during the 90s and has gotten very warm with China in the last 8 years. Russia too has drifted away from India. So getting all worked up at India, will do Russia no good.

If Russia cares about its long-term presence and relevance in the world, it would be forthcoming with India and solve the Gorshkov and Akula controversy on friendly terms, which in many ways underpins the trust factor in the relationship. Russia should also start interacting more with the Indian civil society and business.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Philip » 19 Nov 2008 16:41

Shortsightedness on the part of previous GOI/MOD decision makers is why we are ,where we are today.For years,the decision to plan for replacements first for the Vikrant and then the Viraat were delayed.The IAF tried to sink the IN's carrier requirements too,displaying the worst kind of inter-service rivalry.Thanks to Rajiv G's initiative,the Hermes/Viraat was bought.I remember a serving admiral saying to his former CNS ,that the IN was very lucky to get th hermes which was in excellent condition depite her age/usage.That was two decades ago! What did we do during all that time?We took despite the IN's please a decade to finally acquire the Gorshkov,delayed even further building new carriers,even when right from the '60's the stated MOD need for the IN was a three carrier fleet! Therefore let's remember our share of the blame and the price that we have to pay for our stupidity.Either we decide to pay extra (bargain for it hard),or forget about our great maritime ambitions and let China race ahead of us in carriers too!

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Sanku » 19 Nov 2008 17:25

RajeshA wrote: and India is not going to forget that the Indian Foreign Minister was body-searched at the Moscow Airport.


Good post RajeshA; but when did the above happen; are you per chance mixing up George uncle search in US and Pranab M not getting to meet his counterpart in Moscow as one incident?

On remembering; let me also add that we Indians remember many other things from Russia -- its many vetos; its help with cryogenic systems; the first chakra et al -- but yes; nations do have long memories; esp Asian ones.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby RajeshA » 19 Nov 2008 17:36

Sanku wrote:
RajeshA wrote: and India is not going to forget that the Indian Foreign Minister was body-searched at the Moscow Airport.


Good post RajeshA; but when did the above happen; are you per chance mixing up George uncle search in US and Pranab M not getting to meet his counterpart in Moscow as one incident?

On remembering; let me also add that we Indians remember many other things from Russia -- its many vetos; its help with cryogenic systems; the first chakra et al -- but yes; nations do have long memories; esp Asian ones.


On 17th October, 2007:
Pranab faced Russian rebuff, was frisked at Moscow airport: Indian Express

There are many things about the Soviet Union, that Indians remember fondly, but this Russia seems to be a different animal.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Rahul M » 19 Nov 2008 17:56

okay guys, international relations is OHT(overhead-transmission) for me but I'll try and remove some of the misconceptions that are present in the military front.
plz bear with me ! :P

RajeshA wrote:I think, when India put out a shopping list of multirole fighter aircraft, many mouths started watering. Perhaps India can put out a similar big-item shopping list for stuff that Russia could be providing, maybe another couple of Aircraft Carriers or something, which could give Russians some pause in being over-greedy wrt Gorshkov and Akulas.

as of now, russia has no other big-ticket item in the cupboard that IN may be interested in.

Carriers

you have to understand that all the kiev class AC were built in ukrainian shipyards during soviet times, as was the current in service adm kuznetsov.
Russki yards have NO experience in producing AC and I don't think IN is eager to check out their first time products. their intent to push for indigenous ships also puts paid to such efforts once the IAC is ready.
russia at the moment just doesn't have the ability to produce a new made aircraft carrier for a foreign customer. russian yards are having big problems even refurbishing the gorky and that is not just due to lack of blueprints. their capability itself is a bit suspect and whatever that exists will be used to fill up the RuN's battle lines.
Cruisers
the bear also doesn't have any modern AD cruiser design that IN may want to look at.
Frigate/Destroyer
that leaves the smaller frigates and destroyers.
here too, IN has given enough signs that it is in favour of a western design with Indo-israeli weapons fit.
Subs
on the submarine front of course the akulas would be something nice to have, especially the more advanced akula II of which the nerpa is an example. but that is already one too many for RuN and they would understandably not part with any more of their handful of modern attack subs.
the ballistic and attack submarines represent the sword arm of the russi strategic forces that putin has funded at the expense of the conventional ones in order to maintain 'MAD' parity with the US.
there is simply no way the russi yards which at the moment are busy with the borei and the yassen would be able to make one for India.


There is an outside chance that IN may like a handful of backfires or the su-32fn but I really don't see them going that way.

____________________________________________________________________

Let's check out the opposite POV, does the RuN have a reason for blocking it ?

Is the RuN salivating for the gorky ?
hardly. they have decided long ago that they are out of the small-medium carrier business.
all their future carriers are for much larger designs.
they will accept it if it came their way due to political tug-of-war and may be find a use for it(ASW carrier suggests itself) but they won't go out of their way for the gorky.It's not worth it.
Then is it the nerpa ?
RuN won't be as reluctant about the nerpa given that it is still a modern in-service design.
but do keep in mind that they are already working on the next gen design, the yassen. They will like to have the nerpa till a sizable # of yassens join the force but it would still not be worth a major international incident with a prime customer that gives the russi industry a very bad name indeed. (don't ignore this point, a large portion of the international flanker orders came because of IAF's +ve feedback on the bird, not to forget the COPE exercises !) :twisted:

Now that we have decided that RuN blocking the transfer of gorky is unlikely, what could be the reason ?

the only way I see is, the quoted price increase includes both the upgraded demand for gorky and also the lease amounts for the two akulas !
the sticking point then is the lease for the second akula. the russi navy would be really really unhappy to let go with 2 of its premier in-service attack subs, now that they can afford to operate both(and more).
The russi govt in trying to find a way out of the deal for the second one has raised the price.
they want to sell the gorky, its air component and lease the nerpa but not another akula II till the yassens come into service.
and because the mig-29k's have been already developed with Indian money they believe IN won't just run away from the whole deal.

JMT and all that.

also, chances are russia will award the new carrier building contracts to the ukranian yard !
we can do the same if we want or better still, hire out those people. :mrgreen:

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby prabir » 19 Nov 2008 20:09

We should start hiring talent and give them money that they never dreamt of. This way, we go up the value chain of manufacturing, designing in due course of time. No country becomes great by importing for 50 yrs. It is time, we started doing things of our own

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby RajeshA » 19 Nov 2008 20:13

Thank you, Rahul for the insights, especially the industrial-military angle. It is my weak side. :(

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby krish.pf » 19 Nov 2008 23:22

Krish whn russia sell stuff to China we dont make any hulla gulla and we knw tht it will end up with paki whn reverse enginered so wht rite these ruskies have whn we do some excercise with USA r any other countary .Ruskies have not rite wht we do as we have knw rite wht they do with others if i pay someone to buy things i except him to deliver things no change the price every second day russia must knw oil and gas will not make thm best in world otherwise whole middle east would have been super power.

First off.. they don't sell their top of the line stuff to china. Reason: They are neighbors with a land dispute greater than the disputed land-area we have with pakistan & china combined. They are playing a balancing act by viewing china both as a potential adversary & as a friend(because of the U.S factor).

Second, List how many crappy chinese variants are there currently in pakistan.

Third, which country's weaponry do you want? Whether do you want a to buy weaponry from a country which will support you during war and provides weaponry without any threat of sanctions but opposes getting cosy with it's enemy, or do you want a to buy weaponry from a country which will not support you during a war, and provides weaponry with conditions, and will oppose having military level relationships with it's enemy.
Russia scores 2 points above the U.S here.

If you don't want someone dictating to you then I suggest you petition the Gov to increase the Budget to DRDO to make them deliver high-end hardware other than missiles.

On 17th October, 2007:
Pranab faced Russian rebuff, was frisked at Moscow airport: Indian Express

There are many things about the Soviet Union, that Indians remember fondly, but this Russia seems to be a different animal.

Isn't that story false.. I remember that incident.

"Reacting to questions, he said, "He was not frisked as in the case of George Fernandes," referring to the body search conducted on the former Defence Minister when he went to the US."

http://209.85.175.132/search?q=cache:v_ ... =firefox-a

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby RajeshA » 19 Nov 2008 23:33

The story with the frisking happened 13 months ago and is not currently the hot issue. So I would not go too much into it.

Besides who knows whether Moily was really telling the truth or just trying to cover up the insinuation. Pakis do it all the time, when some Predator flies over and unloads the extra weight somewhere in the hills of FATA. On the other hand Moily could be telling the truth.

I was not there, so I can't judge whether it was true or not, but if some such story appears in a major newspaper in India, it gets attention and one supposes that there must be some little tiny weeny bit of Kaala in the Daal. Either that, or someone was being very creative, at least more creative than Bollywood.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Sanku » 19 Nov 2008 23:38

Safe assumption: if Oily Moily is denying something -- it happened.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby krish.pf » 19 Nov 2008 23:44

I'd say it was a fabrication. Our media is full of crap as usual. I remember hearing the news that Fernandes was strip searched. Only later it was revealed that he was just frisked. Although being frisked is itself an insult.. as you yourself pointed out before that Indians never forget these things.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Manu » 20 Nov 2008 04:14

Rahul's informative post notwithstanding, the state of our Military (in terms of equipment, not men) is sad. Hardly any new acquisitions were made in the past 5 years. The Air Force is in a particular spot of trouble.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Rahul M » 20 Nov 2008 06:48

manu, I agree wholeheartedly. my post was about the russi MIC, not Indian military.
although it is the navy which has suffered the most, not the IAF. :x
nothing more on this OT stuff from me.

/time for a strategic retreat before n^3 ji starts another of those bidding sessions to close down this thread ! :mrgreen:

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby renukb » 20 Nov 2008 10:07

India ready for stronger nuclear cooperation with Russia: Menon

NEW DELH:I India is looking forward to strengthening its energy cooperation with Russia, especially in the nuclear field, Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon said here on Monday.

"Both India and Russia are keen to expand nuclear cooperation. All the preparatory work has been done", Menon said, inaugurating an international conference on "Changing Patterns of Indo-Russian Cooperation" at Observer Research Foundation.

Saying that India and Russia already have an "excellent relationship" and India considers relations with Russia very important, a press release of the foundation quoted Menon as saying that the bilateral trade, however, was not commensurate with the potential.

"Trade still remains a challenge," he said, adding "though it is positive, that is not enough".
Bilateral trade last year was around five billion dollars, the press release further quoted the Indian Foreign Secretary, as saying.

Explaining the increasing importance of India-Russia relations in a developing multi-polar world, Menon pointed to the meeting of the Finance Ministers of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries before the G-20 summit which played an important role.

Saying India-Russia bilateral complementarities would only grow in future, the release quoted Menon as saying that he believed BRIC countries could play an important role in combating the global economic slowdown.

Menon hoped that the two-day conference, attended by experts from both the countries, would come up with recommendations about the future path of Indo-Russian relations.

The conference, which will discus various aspects of Indo-Russian relations, including future prospects of India-Russia-China trilateral cooperation and the role of BRIC in international affairs, is being organised by Observer Research Foundation, a Delhi-headquartered public policy think tank, and Moscow based "Unity for Russia" Foundation.

The conference precedes the first-ever state visit of new Russian President Mr Dmitry Medvedev to India in the first week of next month.

Dr. Vyacheslav Nikonov, the president of the "Unity for Russia" Foundation, was quoted by the press release as saying that both Russia and India are growing at a fast pace of round 7 per cent despite hardships.

"There were neither any confrontations nor big problems between Russia and India. Russia supported India whether it is Kashmir or the Pakistan issue," he said, stressing the potential for improving bilateral cooperation.

Pointing out the importance of the role of BRIC in international relations, Dr Nikonov suggested that the triangle of Russia, India and China could emerge as a strong force.

Similarly, the Russian Ambassador, Mr V Trbnikov, also said that India and Russia together could play an important role in shaping the new emerging world.

This conference is a part of the strategic dialogue initiated by Observer Research Foundation and the "Unity for Russia" Foundation in October 2007 at Moscow. The purpose of the conference is to address issues affecting bilateral relations and suggest measures to further strengthen cooperation between the two sides.


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