okay guys, international relations is OHT
(overhead-transmission) for me but I'll try and remove some of the misconceptions that are present in the military front.
plz
bear with me !
RajeshA wrote:I think, when India put out a shopping list of multirole fighter aircraft, many mouths started watering. Perhaps India can put out a similar big-item shopping list for stuff that Russia could be providing, maybe another couple of Aircraft Carriers or something, which could give Russians some pause in being over-greedy wrt Gorshkov and Akulas.
as of now, russia has no other big-ticket item in the cupboard that IN may be interested in.
Carriers
you have to understand that all the kiev class AC were built in ukrainian shipyards during soviet times, as was the current in service adm kuznetsov.
Russki yards have NO experience in producing AC and I don't think IN is eager to check out their first time products. their intent to push for indigenous ships also puts paid to such efforts once the IAC is ready.
russia at the moment just doesn't have the ability to produce a new made aircraft carrier for a foreign customer. russian yards are having big problems even refurbishing the gorky and that is not just due to lack of blueprints. their capability itself is a bit suspect and whatever that exists will be used to fill up the RuN's battle lines.
Cruisers
the bear also doesn't have any modern AD cruiser design that IN may want to look at.
Frigate/Destroyer
that leaves the smaller frigates and destroyers.
here too, IN has given enough signs that it is in favour of a western design with Indo-israeli weapons fit.
Subs
on the submarine front of course the akulas would be something nice to have, especially the more advanced akula II of which the nerpa is an example. but that is already one too many for RuN and they would understandably not part with any more of their handful of modern attack subs.
the ballistic and attack submarines represent the sword arm of the russi strategic forces that putin has funded at the expense of the conventional ones in order to maintain 'MAD' parity with the US.
there is simply no way the russi yards which at the moment are busy with the borei and the yassen would be able to make one for India.
There is an outside chance that IN may like a handful of backfires or the su-32fn but I really don't see them going that way.
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Let's check out the opposite POV, does the RuN have a reason for blocking it ?
Is the RuN salivating for the gorky ?
hardly. they have decided long ago that they are out of the small-medium carrier business.
all their future carriers are for much larger designs.
they will accept it if it came their way due to political tug-of-war and may be find a use for it(ASW carrier suggests itself) but they won't go out of their way for the gorky.It's not worth it.
Then is it the nerpa ?
RuN won't be as reluctant about the nerpa given that it is still a modern in-service design.
but do keep in mind that they are already working on the next gen design, the yassen. They will like to have the nerpa till a sizable # of yassens join the force but it would still not be worth a major international incident with a prime customer that gives the
russi industry a very bad name indeed. (don't ignore this point, a large portion of the international flanker orders came because of IAF's +ve feedback on the bird, not to forget the COPE exercises !)
Now that we have decided that RuN blocking the transfer of gorky is unlikely, what could be the reason ?
the only way I see is, the quoted price increase includes both the upgraded demand for gorky and also the lease amounts for the
two akulas !
the sticking point then is the lease for the second akula. the russi navy would be really really unhappy to let go with 2 of its premier in-service attack subs, now that they can afford to operate both(and more).
The russi govt in trying to find a way out of the deal for the second one has raised the price.
they want to sell the gorky, its air component and lease the nerpa but not another akula II till the yassens come into service.
and because the mig-29k's have been already developed with Indian money they believe IN won't just run away from the whole deal.
JMT and all that.
also, chances are russia will award the new carrier building contracts to the ukranian yard !
we can do the same if we want or better still, hire out those people.
I guess what really galls is that for years we used to pay peanuts and get monkeys from Russia. Now we pay full price and still get monkeys
