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India-Russia: News & Analysis

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Cosmo_R
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Cosmo_R » 23 Dec 2016 19:01

Putin's strategy is evolving to include Turkey. The second shoe will drop when he brings in China which brings Pakistan along. If he somehow manages to bring Iran into the fold, we're @*k$. Chahbahar and Balochistan need to be shaken free.

"An Alliance to Worry the West
The truth, however, is that despite shaky relations between Russia and Turkey in recent years, the assassination is unlikely to lead to more tension between the countries. Indeed, it will probably push them even closer together, as Moscow realizes that this is a perfect opportunity to draw a weak and unstable Turkey into the Russian orbit."

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/23/opini ... inion&_r=0

In Putin's grand scheme, India does not figure at all except as a buyer (note chorus call for India to join CPEC).

The tides are shifting rapidly. I'm not sure Donald Trump has the attention span to understand how the snakes are coiling.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby saumitra_j » 23 Dec 2016 23:00

Cosmo_R wrote:Putin's strategy is evolving to include Turkey. The second shoe will drop when he brings in China which brings Pakistan along. If he somehow manages to bring Iran into the fold, we're @*k$. Chahbahar and Balochistan need to be shaken free.

"An Alliance to Worry the West
The truth, however, is that despite shaky relations between Russia and Turkey in recent years, the assassination is unlikely to lead to more tension between the countries. Indeed, it will probably push them even closer together, as Moscow realizes that this is a perfect opportunity to draw a weak and unstable Turkey into the Russian orbit."

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/23/opini ... inion&_r=0

In Putin's grand scheme, India does not figure at all except as a buyer (note chorus call for India to join CPEC).

The tides are shifting rapidly. I'm not sure Donald Trump has the attention span to understand how the snakes are coiling.


Sir, India not figuring prominently in Putin's plans makes sense from a Russian pov, especially if given next 20 odd years, we might completely break free from them in terms of technology! For CPEC, Gwadar port et al to be useful, it will need to have economic value! Where is that economic value going to come from? Aging China and Russia? All grand geopolitics without supporting economics is bound to fail. US could get away for so many years because they controlled all the institutions because of their sheer economic strength. I do not see China playing that role any time soon given their inherent economic weaknesses. IMHO let the build a grand alliance, we just need to do what's best for us including funding Balochistan's separation and let the Russians know that anything going through Indian territory held by TSP is fair game for attack, when the time comes. They will need a market to make CPEC viable and without India, I don't see who will create that market. A few more disruptions in oil prices due to technologies like solar and CPEC is completely done for economically imho...

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby devesh » 23 Dec 2016 23:36

chanakyaa wrote:
Rudradev wrote:....
Mil-hardware p0rn is a sorry brand of wool for Russian apologists to pull over Indian eyes in this regard. Russia has demonstrated that in terms of actively pursued geopolitical interests, it is rapidly developing into an overtly hostile power with utter disregard for India's security and territorial integrity. The onus is not on India to repair a relationship that Moscow has clearly deemed unworthy of strategic primacy.

RDji, not that i disagree with your assessment, but I wonder if the you-are-our-all-weather-friend-and-you-must-be-on-our-side-regardless-of-our-inability-to-retake-lost-territory card has been used for too long, wayyy past its expiration date. Sanctions or whatever, has pushed Russia in corner in terms of who Russia can call BFF and simple acquaintance. If the Chinese support post sanctions on Russia is conditional on Russia supporting all Chinese efforts including CPEC (whatever hell that means), it is only possible because WE are making it possible by our inability to extend J&K boundry. It very well may be a "utter disregard" but who is responsible for taking things to that level? Bakistani breakage in the first round was with Russia's help with US on the other side, may be we redo the breakage, but this time US on our side and Russian on the other.


The land connection between Pakis and PRC needs to be broken. That gives us access to Afghanistan and CA directly.

I think a critical inflection point has been reached. Russia is in a corner due to sanctions and oil price collapse. And Putin is turning very transactional. Unless we change reality on ground and show that we are serious about securing our northern periphery against Sino-Islamic encroachment, we will be left with our collective d**** in our hand.

I think at this point the Russian assessment is that we're content with letting PRC and Pak block us from CA. And hence they view us as a force which has no real interest in CA other than token statements.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby devesh » 23 Dec 2016 23:39

I also think the situation is going to get a lot worse before it could get better. Pakis need to do the needful for us to use that as a noose around their neck. So it's still a waiting game. But preparation must continue for what's coming. War is inevitable. We cannot be held hostage by Pakis indefinitely.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby anjan » 24 Dec 2016 00:00

Avarachan wrote:Also, the mission computers for Russia's Su-30 SM's are built by HAL in India
Thanks. I did not know.

Anyway I'm not advocating a radical breakaway from Russia. I'm saying we need a clear eyed view of our relationships with others. Russia will try and curtail/delay our influence in CA and will likely make every attempt to stop us getting independent power (like a UNSC seat). They'll collaborate in other fields where they can hope to tie China down(seapower especially since conflict there with Russia is near impossible). We should not feel either betrayal at the former or great love at the latter. They're simply doing what's in their best interests and we must do what's in ours.

Equally while in the long term Indian influence in CA, ME etc will collide with Russian interests it is important to remember we are nowhere near there yet. In the short-medium terms we need to build our industrial base and for that we should use anyone and everyone.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby svinayak » 24 Dec 2016 00:57

We need to have informed discussion or else it becomes noise.

State to State relations are very complex and it is done with deliberation

Pak and China are the border region of Russia and was supported by US to keep Russia pinned for 45 years

Russia is now taking a counter measure by getting closed to China and Pak.

This is a geopolitical lock down condition.


America will use India to transform the geopolitical alignment in Eurasia and Asia in general.
This needs lot of reading to understand how this will play out in the next 2 decades

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Prem » 24 Dec 2016 04:31

http://tacticalinvestor.com/putin-propo ... ion-asean/
Putin proposes deepening of economic cooperation with ASEAN

SOCHI -- Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed on Friday deepening of economic cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)."I think there is a possibility of creating in the future a common free trade zone between the EEU (Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union) and ASEAN ... in contribution to the formation of the Asia-Pacific free trade zone," Putin said in an address to the ASEAN-Russia Summit held on Thursday and Friday.Another prospective trend of the economic integration could be the pairing of the EEU and ASEAN, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative, Putin said.The trade turnover between Russia and ASEAN members was 13.7 billion U.S. dollars in 2015 -- rather modest compared with ASEAN's trade performance with some other countries in the Asian-Pacific region, Putin said, adding that there is also the need to boost bilateral investment cooperation between Russia and ASEAN members.Russia, he added, has prepared a roadmap which includes 57 projects aimed at forming modern technological and innovational alliances with ASEAN countries.Russia will also enhance cooperation with ASEAN by covering its increasing demand in hydrocarbons and other energy products, and propose projects of new-generation atomic power stations.Meanwhile, Putin mentioned the construction of modern railways in ASEAN countries, and modern networks of satellite navigation on the basis of the Russian Glonass global navigation system.The president also invited ASEAN businesses to participate in the development programs of Russian regions, primarily the Far East, in modernizing the trans-Siberian railway and developing the Northern Sea Route, which could be the shortest trade corridor linking East Asia and Europe.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Rudradev » 24 Dec 2016 04:32

I would like to share something.

This is a Russian video gaming a war scenario between USA and China over the Western Pacific.


If you ignore the cartoonish presenter (a sock puppet in a Russian admiral's uniform :D) you will see that this is actually a well-researched infographic animation with lots of supporting data.

The assumptions made in this video are that USA takes on China alone (no coalition of allies supporting the USA, except for use of bases in Japan). The US wins, but at a significant cost. Of course, it is suggested that things could go much worse for China, very quickly, if other countries (including India) participated on the US side.

Why am I sharing this here? Two reasons:
1) It is a Russian production. So, while it appears to be backed by data and sound reasoning in its thesis, it is unmistakably a picture that the Russians are painting for global viewers (Chinese, Americans, Indians among them)
2) It gives us a view of what the Russians think regarding China as a geopolitical partner. Without ever actually saying this, it conveys the impression that China would not stand a chance in a contest against the US, or US + Allies, unless it had Russia on its side.

We tend to think of Russia as a junior partner that has been recruited by a Chinese-dominated alliance out of some kind of majboori. I wanted to present an alternative perspective, from a Russian source, that suggests this might not be the case.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Cosmo_R » 24 Dec 2016 05:51

^^^Rudradev

+1. Thank you for such clear eyed thinking. No one wants a US-China confrontation but if it does, India needs to take sides for its own advantage, The US is not claiming AP or controlling Aksai Chin, setting up a string of pearls, devastating our economy with everything from cheap statuettes of Hindu deities to phones and appliances to run a trade imbalance.

The Russians want to to be a co-equal partner with China by demonstrating their hold over us, Iran, Turkey and Syria even as they accommodate Pakistan. Bonus? India gets to fund science projects like the PAK/FA/FGFA that it might otherwise use to build capability against the PRC and is thus neutralized.

There are no permanent friends and Vlad is not fond of us.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby ShauryaT » 24 Dec 2016 06:02

svinayak: if you read materials from the 70's and 80's, I can flip the places US and Russia/USSR are in and all the rationale, geo-politics and arguments would look the same but with the powers switched!! It is as if nothing has changed. I refuse to accept that. India is a different type of a power and if this re-alignment has to happen so be it - provided Indian interests are served in a manner that expands Indian geo-political power. I have yet to see evidence of the latter in the offing as part of this re-allignment.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby chanakyaa » 24 Dec 2016 08:47

Rudradev wrote:This is a Russian video gaming a war scenario between USA and China over the Western Pacific.

The clip seems to do a decent job of very high level scenario analysis by using strengths and weakness of countries' assets. If viewed in isolation, i.e. everything was going well between two countries, but one fine morning both countries decide to go to war, the scenario presented seems plausible and Russian wildcard makes sense. But, in the real world the dependence of the economies of two countries (i.e. US/China) is something Russia can't help China with. Overwhelming % of US (and EU) consumer retail product, and intermediate industrial product, is manufactured in China, which employs and feeds millions. If the corporations (US/EU) decide to move that away from China (easier said than done), the resulting social impact and internal uprising could be worse than the effect of dropping fireworks on China's east coast.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Paul » 24 Dec 2016 10:29

X-post from Indis US thread will lend credence to this scenario...My post some time ago

Postby Paul » 18 Nov 2016, 01:31

RDji, however this message has to be conveyed to Xi for his buy in. We know Xi has ordered 300K PLA troops to be disbanded and wants the funds to be transferred to the Navy as he sees the major threat for China on it's eastern sea board.

Kaplan in his book Monsoon said that China has never been more secure than now on it's land borders in it's entire history. India is the ONLY country with a credible land army to threaten Chinese land forces. Not even Vietnam has this power. As of now Indian posture along Tibet border is purely strongly defensive till Mountain corp is deployed by 2020 or so. So why will China want to disturb this comfortable situation and add to it's considerable list of enemies.

So we have to wait and see where Xi is allocating his funds. If it is to the Army, then we are in their X hairs, if Navy then...well we have to see.
Top


Kaplan's thesis on China's land borders.....

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/audios/2 ... tral-banks

And now that the Chinese are more secure on land than they've ever been, their imperial aggression takes the form of being a sea power and extending their influence into the adjacent seas of the South and East China Seas.


A war with India at best will get China a bronze medal in terms of securing their objectives, but a war on the high seas is non negotiable as they have to secure their sea lanes to protect their trade and commerce. This is a matter of survival for them.

Added later....to think China will disturb the tranquillity on their land borders for a flea bitten Pakistan is a questionable preposition.


However, a limited Nathu La type skirmirsh may not be out of the question.....
I think in terms of East Asia, I think in addition to the South and East China Sea, we should pay attention to the conflict or to the historic disagreement between India and China over the Himalayas and to the land border between China and Vietnam.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby panduranghari » 24 Dec 2016 12:35

anjan wrote:India and Russia have no current inherent conflicts at all. In the long term however, one of India's imperatives as it grows will be to break out of geographical constraints imposed by partition. A land link to Central Asia and beyond. And a prosperous India connected to Central Asia will be as big or a bigger threat than China given our geographical proximity. Russia may simply be looking to back Pakistan and forestall or postpone this.


Russia even in the darkest hour of cold war, did not use economic sanctions as a way to punish state which it thought were belligerent. You could say their economic policies then were not as much influenced by geo-politics unlike US policies (which tends to vacillates between the 2 poles- using and removing sanctions). Putins Russia seems to be different as evident by their overt support for Assad to prevent gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe bypassing the Russian supplies. Limiting Indian access to Central Asia is probably the only direct way with which Russia can prevent India from truly becoming energy independent. Because energy independence is equal to rising prosperity. But does Russians have ability to put boots on the ground?

As per Sergei Glasyev, the Russian plan is to create Kievan Rus.

Russia will have a leading role in building a coalition against the U.S. since it is most vulnerable and will not succeed in the ongoing confrontation without such an alliance. If Russia fails to show initiative, the anti-Russian bloc currently being created by the U.S. will absorb or neutralize Russia’s potential allies. The war against Russia the U.S. is inciting in Europe may benefit China, because the weakening of the U.S., the European Union, and Russia will make it easier for Beijing to achieve global leadership. Also, Brazil could give in to U.S. pressure and India may focus on solving its own domestic problems.

Russia has as much experience of leadership in world politics as the U.S. It has the necessary moral and cultural authority and sufficient military-technical capabilities. But Russian public opinion needs to overcome its inferiority complex, regain a sense of historical pride for the centuries of efforts to create a civilization that brought together numerous nations and cultures and which many times saved Europe and humanity from self-extermination. It needs to bring back an understanding of the historical role the Russian world played in creating a universal culture from Kievan Rus’, the spiritual heir to the Byzantine Empire, to the Russian Federation, the successor state of the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire. Eurasian integration processes should be presented as a global project to restore and develop the common space of nations from Lisbon to Vladivostok, and from St. Petersburg to Colombo, which for centuries lived and worked together.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 24 Dec 2016 19:32

Sergey Glazyev is an alternative view point in Kremlin , that presents alternative opinion on policy and economy , They are part of Stolypin Club's which has alternative policy compared to the current Kudrin/Central Bank Liberal folks.

He doesnt get much traction in terms of geopolitical policy but his Stolypin Club's economic policy proposal is interesting indeed and basicly relies on lower interest rates , QE and higher public debt for growth , they are also opposed to full capital account convertibility of rouble and floating currency , In sum and substance diametrically opposite to what Central Bank/Kudrin led Liberal folks want

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby GShankar » 25 Dec 2016 12:57

IMHO only. I don't think this Rus-pivot is about containment of India. It is more about creating as much trouble to massa supremacy as possible. We are getting shafted because pakis are so good at selling themselves.

Though limiting massa power in the long run is beneficial, we are going to be hit due to geography.

Only option left for us is to do "a Rus" a la Georgia and Ukraine. ASAP!!

We have already made noise about liberating Balochistan and Sindh. Time to expedite the process only, like our Musharraf's on fire..

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby pralay » 25 Dec 2016 13:07

GShankar wrote:We are getting shafted because pakis are so good at selling themselves.

Actually we are getting shafted because #$%#%$ nehru did not retake Gilgit-Baltistan which was rightfully ours in the 1948 war even if the army was willing and capable to do so.
That piece of land was our road to heart of Asia.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby GShankar » 25 Dec 2016 14:07

That is neither the only nor the biggest #$%#%$ nehru did.

But we (the current leadership) should do what we must. Otherwise 70 years from now someone (rather many) will blame modi for the #$%#%$ he did.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 25 Dec 2016 23:19

Nehru was an elitist and womeniser , The British intelligence just used him too well knowing his weakness for wine and women

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Philip » 25 Dec 2016 23:58

China is worried about the Russo-Us bonhomie withe Trump-Putin factor emergent..Putin's visit to Japan has also shaken it a bit.Never forget that Russia remembers the historical invasions from the east.China is a neighbour that as in the past could hostile.India is its all-weather friend that controls the warm waters of the IOR.It is China who wants to rncirclr India.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby ShauryaT » 26 Dec 2016 00:01

GShankar wrote:IMHO only. I don't think this Rus-pivot is about containment of India. It is more about creating as much trouble to massa supremacy as possible. We are getting shafted because pakis are so good at selling themselves.

Though limiting massa power in the long run is beneficial, we are going to be hit due to geography.

Only option left for us is to do "a Rus" a la Georgia and Ukraine. ASAP!!

We have already made noise about liberating Balochistan and Sindh. Time to expedite the process only, like our Musharraf's on fire..
Agree with the above that so far the Russian ramblings seem classic geo-political moves. Although some like Rudradev have proposed an extra ordinary theory, it will up to them to show extra ordinary proofs. But, have to say, even within the realm of geo-politics, I was a little surprised (Even if it is largely ramblings now) and China's aggressive acts are making starting to make its impact. If we do not countermand them fast, we would be shafted. It is as if, our FP is in some kind of cruise control going nowhere!

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Samudragupta » 26 Dec 2016 00:41

Russia will be having a single point foreign policy goal...success of the Eurasian Union and CSTO...People should not forget that Pakistan has become part of SCO...it makes perfect sense for the Russians to open up with the Pakistanis to break the monopoly of the Chinese on them...

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby GShankar » 26 Dec 2016 01:21

ShauryaT wrote:
GShankar wrote:IMHO only. I don't think this Rus-pivot is about containment of India. It is more about creating as much trouble to massa supremacy as possible. We are getting shafted because pakis are so good at selling themselves.

Though limiting massa power in the long run is beneficial, we are going to be hit due to geography.

Only option left for us is to do "a Rus" a la Georgia and Ukraine. ASAP!!

We have already made noise about liberating Balochistan and Sindh. Time to expedite the process only, like our Musharraf's on fire..
Agree with the above that so far the Russian ramblings seem classic geo-political moves. Although some like Rudradev have proposed an extra ordinary theory, it will up to them to show extra ordinary proofs. But, have to say, even within the realm of geo-politics, I was a little surprised (Even if it is largely ramblings now) and China's aggressive acts are making starting to make its impact. If we do not countermand them fast, we would be shafted. It is as if, our FP is in some kind of cruise control going nowhere!


I do agree with a lot of what RD is saying. But my primary point is that the russian moves are not india centric. But that India unfortunately will end up becoming collateral damage if we don't act up. Connecting these geo-politics with our recent military leadership change, I think namo-mp-ad gang have chosen the right men for future surgeries and amputations for our north-eastern and western neighbors as needed.

Other than this, I do agree that rus is getting ready to play the biggest game that it could. This time, we should neither be bystanders nor fringe players. This is the time for us to solve some long standing issues permanently.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 26 Dec 2016 11:51

Philip wrote:China is worried about the Russo-Us bonhomie withe Trump-Putin factor emergent..Putin's visit to Japan has also shaken it a bit.Never forget that Russia remembers the historical invasions from the east.China is a neighbour that as in the past could hostile.India is its all-weather friend that controls the warm waters of the IOR.It is China who wants to rncirclr India.


Russia-US wont really have any bonhomie , they have very serious geo-political difference and US/EU has put sanctions on Russia and is expanding NATO , if any things else their relationships between US and Russia can be described as moderately hostile.

Russia wont in any way make its biggest bordering nation hostile or for that matter any of CIS/CSTO/SCO nations hostile just because it wants to maintain good relationship with US which itself is very personality driven and not by geopolitical interest. Only fools can afford to have its immediate neighbour hostile but a very distant nation friendly

Having said that Russia and US can still work on common interest like Terrorism ,Nuclear Non-Proliferation , Space and Environmental issue where they are likely to have more of convergece and less of divergence.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Philip » 26 Dec 2016 13:31

Russian scribes on western telly keep emphasising that it is the UKR where the NATO nations crossed the "red line",orchestrating a coup to overthrow the pro-Russian regime.That to Putin and Russia is an absolute act of aggression and the result was Russian proxy intervention and the re-acquisition of the Crimea. Any further adventurism by NATO will see steel from Russia. In the erst of the world,Russia is shoring up its interests and friends from becoming victims of "regime change" and further detrimental to Russian geo-strat. and economic interests.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 27 Dec 2016 14:57

India supports speedy integration with EAEU
13:31, 6 December, 2016

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 6, ARMENPRESS. India supports speedy integration with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), G. Balasubramanian, Deputy Chief of Mission of Indian Embassy in Russia said, RIA Novosti reported.

“India is considered as the Eurasian Economic Union’s primary partner, and the working group, that has worked during the last year, released its instructions and stated that business between India and the EAEU will develop quite well”, the diplomat said at the 3rd Eurasian Economic Congress.


He said a great potential for cooperation exists between India and the EAEU.

“We would like to see progress in this sector, talks will launch soon between India and the Eurasian Economic Commission, and we are in favor of integration with the EAEU as quickly as possible”, he said.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Bhurishravas » 28 Dec 2016 00:56

http://www.dw.com/en/an-afghanistan-con ... a-36922029
An Afghanistan conference without Afghanistan

Afghanistan has expressed concern over a meeting in Moscow between China, Pakistan and Russia over the Afghan conflict. Experts say Pakistan is trying to forge an alliance to counter an Indian-Afghan partnership.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby devesh » 28 Dec 2016 06:00

X-post from Levant crisis thread:

IndraD wrote:
Bhurishravas wrote:Unfortunately, Russia is more than happy to align itself with Islamist States like Pakistan and Turkey where Unkill is willing to disengage its alliance.
this seems to be turning true, India needs to do tight rope walk. While we seem to be moving in West orbit, geographical proximity to Cheena & Russia's new found love for Turk & Pk is worrying! Is there a middle path out?



have a feeling that if Putin continues with actively supporting and taking part in China-Pak axis, Russian deep-state with possibly tacit US nod will revolt against him. and the "enemy" might be closer to Putin than one thinks. just a possibility that I think we shouldn't rule out. although the if and when will depend on: how much concessions he gives to PRC in CA, and how much compromise he makes with Sunni jihadis and Islamists in CAR and Afghanistan.

the wild card is the Chechen jihadis. there have been rumors for some time now that the chechen mullahs are strutting around openly with broad smiles on their faces over the past couple of years. frankly, if there is a renewal of chechen jihad, and the sanctions on Russia are still in effect by then - Putin might feel boxed into a corner (for India - that is going to be a very delicate situation; the maximum risk of a real Russo-Chinese strategic entente would be posed in such a circumstance).

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Cain Marko » 28 Dec 2016 08:37

Russia will only back China covertly to a point that it feels its loss of the 80s and 90s is avenged. there is little more than short term convergence...a convenient alliance of sorts with the Chinese. I would say that the Chinese are still in the ambit of roos, not the other way around even if it seems so.

Otoh. Russia always seems to look up to the western countries and grudgingly wants a seat at that table. A wannabe of sorts. Culturally, I've noticed this sort of awe in the east European when it comes to western Europe, esp, Anglo-Saxon setup.

They will have no problems in overtly supporting these powers against China when the time is right. The dragon better watch out.

As far as India is concerned, it would do well to have decent relations with both and keep it transactional although it will be seen closer to one or the other at different times. It is culturally and geographically of little consequence to either in the long term although culturally closer now to the US.

sooner or later both US and Russian interests will converge....the Chinese will ensure this the moment they start feeling their oats a bit.....very sensitive them russkis. They will get picked apart then and India will probably play its part here in saving some dignity for the Chinese. The next great war will be mainly in the Pacific. Europe too as Russia may see an opportunity to stamp its authority there in exchange for support provided in pacific. ..In the middle east, Saudis will be out of reckoning and we will probably see a tiff between the Turks and Iran. Israel too.

India will have its hands full as TSP pulls its shenanigans
..But a larger india is inevitable in the end.

Just some coffee grounds reading.....and Illuvatar knows best.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Neshant » 28 Dec 2016 11:17

Cain Marko wrote:They will have no problems in overtly supporting these powers against China when the time is right. The dragon better watch out.


I think so too.

NATO will eventually expand eastwards and incorporate Russia.

However Russia will have to be subordinate to the block's leadership (i.e. US) and its interests.

Basically NATO will complete its role as a white man's club.

The amount of collective military power and resources within the block will be a sight to behold.
Last edited by Neshant on 28 Dec 2016 11:22, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 28 Dec 2016 11:22

Neshant wrote:NATO will eventually expand eastwards and incorporate Russia.


That is one of the reason SCO was created so that NATO does not expand Eastwards

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 28 Dec 2016 11:23

Russia to enhance long-term bilateral ties with India
Wednesday, 28 December 2016 | PNS | New Delhi

http://www.dailypioneer.com/nation/russ ... india.html
Amid a perception of its inclination towards Pakistan, Russia has reiterated its commitment towards further strengthening its special “privileged relationship” with India.

In its new foreign policy vision document, Russia has said that it looks forward to enhancing bilateral ties with New Delhi in all areas, especially trade and economy and the focus will be on implementing long-term cooperation programmes with India.

Interestingly, Russia has mentioned Pakistan in the context of terrorism saying the terror groups aspire to create their own State and seek to consolidate their influence on a territory stretching from the shores of the Atlantic Ocean to Pakistan. In a carefully-worded document, Russia has, however, not made it clear whether it considers Pakistan a hotbed of terrorism or a victim.

President Vladimir Putin approved the ‘Foreign Policy Concept’ (FPC) of the Russian Government on November 30, 2016. The previous FPC was released in February 2013 in which Moscow had kept India as an important factor under ‘Regional Priority’ section and said “developing friendly relations with China and India is one of the priorities of Russian foreign policy.”

Russia has maintained the importance of India in its new plan as well. “Russia is committed to further strengthening its special privileged partnership with the Republic of India based on the convergence of foreign policy priorities, historical friendship and deep mutual trust, as well as enhancing mutually beneficial bilateral ties in all areas, primarily in trade and economy, with a focus on implementing long-term cooperation programmes approved by the two countries,” the latest Concept paper said.

“Russia believes that it is important to further develop the mechanism of effective and mutually beneficial foreign policy and day-to-day cooperation within the RIC (Russia-India-China) format,” it further added.


Despite trade between the two countries dropping by 7.8 per cent in 2015, India remains one of the major foreign trade partners of Russia. The defence relationship between India and Russia is very strong. Energy, chemical and engineering products also account for major Russian exports to India. But the focus for Russia now is to go beyond weapons purchase and look at improving trade and investments. President Putin during his visit to India in September had said that the two countries are resolved to overcome the negative trend, which, he pointed out, was associated with volatility on the global markets and in exchange rates.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Philip » 28 Dec 2016 12:18

NATO expand and "incorporate Russia?" Some tall order that! At the moment,NATO is struggling to remain relevant as the Russian /Putin bogey of another Cold War,has few takers in the western streets. Putin's intervention in Syria against ISIS ,has been hugely welcomed by the majority of nations worldwide.,barring the core imperialist nations with their vested interests,exporting regime change on the global map,

However,Indo-Russian relations need to go beyond the G-to-G relationship.When one meets middle-aged Russians while travelling,their love of India,Raj Kapoor,etc. is astonishing.I've had a few even sing Hindi film songs to me.This soft-penetration by Bollywood/India from the 50s onwards,needs to be leveraged today in a new avatar.Cultural exchanges vital. During the CW,we saw many more Soviet cultural troupes visiting India than today.They were extremely popular.Similarly,the two nations need a new Re-Rbl sort of relationship,where Indian goods can once again be shipped to Russia in bulk in exchange for Ru goods,energy supplies,etc.Tourism is a major entity that hasn't been exploited. Trade delegations and an annual Indo-Russian trade expo ,the venue moving each year to different cities/regions in the country,esp. Tier-2 cities,would help manufacturers in both countries.A comprehensive Indo-Russian relationship needs to be framed that is holistic instead of usual arms/energy deals. Indian investment and manpower could help Russia exploit some of its natural resources

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Bhurishravas » 28 Dec 2016 16:45

https://thewire.in/89722/india-iran-russia-afghanistan/

Are India, Iran and Russia Parting Ways on Afghanistan?

With the entry of ISIS into the Afghanistan equation, Indian interests have diverged from those of Russia and Iran, who have said that ISIS is a much more dangerous threat than the Taliban.


The argument provided is that ISIS has presence in Afghanistan and therefore the parties should now take it easy on Taliban.

This of course is nonsense and another pakistani trick to somehow get the Taliban to be recognised by other countries and negotiated with.

That Russia is willing to buy into this only points to the fact that Moscow, like Washington is willing to accomodate jihaadis as long as they dont directly endanger its interests.


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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby ShauryaT » 28 Dec 2016 23:11

Neshant wrote:NATO will eventually expand eastwards and incorporate Russia.

However Russia will have to be subordinate to the block's leadership (i.e. US) and its interests.

Basically NATO will complete its role as a white man's club.

The amount of collective military power and resources within the block will be a sight to behold.
Neshant: That is a wonderful theory, that took birth in 1991 and got thrashed by 1993 in informed public discourse. On this board, wonderful theories are not unheard of, however to be taken seriously especially as one makes assertive claims, the onus is on you to substantiate your arguments. Please do realize what you have written defies 1000 years of history and current realities rooted in capabilities and will of nation-states that are quite difficult, if not impossible to overcome. Very willing to hear about your insights and research on the above theories.

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India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Peregrine » 29 Dec 2016 17:01

X Posted on the Managing China Threat & STFUP Threads

Russia, China and Pakistan for flexible ties with Taliban, India ignored

NEW DELHI: As Russia, China and Pakistan work towards building a new axis in Afghanistan to accommodate Taliban as a tool against the Islamic Sate terror group, it could have unforeseen consequences for the Russia-India relationship.

On Tuesday, China, Pakistan and Russia met in Moscow to discuss Afghanistan's "deteriorating" security situation, despite strong protests from the Afghan government. The three countries relented towards the end of the day's discussions and said that they would expand the group to include Afghanistan the next time. There is already a move to induct Iran into this group.

Nandan Unnikrishnan, Russia analyst at Observer Research Foundation, said, "In the present context of limited communication between India and Russia, Russia's actions could lead to a drift in relations." India only recently reaffirmed its ties with Russia by announcing almost $10 billion in defence purchases from Moscow.

The statement issued at the end of the meeting said, "The Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China as the UN Security Council permanent members confirmed their flexible approach to delisting Afghan individuals from the UN sanctions lists as their contribution to the efforts aimed at launching peaceful dialogue between Kabul and Taliban."

This could, if Russia and China press ahead, and if the US does not block, result in the removal of some top Taliban leaders from the UNSC sanctions list. Afghanistan, incidentally, has asked for the new Taliban chief to be included in the list.

Conspicuous by its absence at the meet was India, which continues to hold Taliban as the biggest threat in Afghanistan. Besides India, the Afghan government and the US both agree to this.

The Afghan government is currently going through its own political crisis, with the two key leaders of the unity government, President Ashraf Ghani and CEO Abdullah Abdullah, at loggerheads. The US, which has 9,800 troops in a counter-terrorism role is unsure of how it will utilise its presence in Afghanistan under a Trump administration.

India is holding on to the "red lines" for integration of Taliban into the Afghan government but that seems to be getting diluted by the new axis, which is less Afghan-led and more Pakistan-led, putting Pakistan once again in the driver's seat on Afghanistan's future.

Iran, which has been doing its own outreach to Taliban, is equally apprehensive of the fallout of IS cadres relocating to Afghanistan as they get driven out of Syria and Iraq.

This is essentially a return to the good-Taliban, bad-Taliban argument, as everybody wants to do a peace settlement in Afghanistan. India will remain out of this move yet again. Russia is looking for two things -an opening to Pakistan and a lever against IS that Moscow believes could be at its doorstep, given Russians form the largest group of IS fighters.

The last time Russia was on India's side. But this time, Russia says its more worried about the IS than about losing India's friendship.

Cheers Image

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 30 Dec 2016 17:40

^^ I think DT will just reduce its troops presense in Afghanistan and cut US losses there and will make a deal with Pakistan to manage Afghanistan , The present Afghan government dictat does not run beyond its capital and most part of Afghanistan are still run by Taliban.

Afghanistan is currently a dead investment for US once OBL was killed , US public has little interest there and politically and militarily its a dead investment and cuts by thousand wounds type , The Taliban is managed by Pakistan and US are in no position to reign Pak position on that indeed all it has done is bankrolled pakistan , Kowing Well OBL was caught in Pakistan and Taliban is just a proxy to Pak

More Than 14 Years After U.S. Invasion, the Taliban Control Large Parts of Afghanistan

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015 ... -maps.html

Rather then let pakistan rule over entire Afghanistan or most part of it , The Chinese Russia would cut a deal with Taliban to have infulence over them so that then US leaves it is not at the mercy of Pakistan or Taliban ......Even in best case the Afghan Government would just be kept in Kabul by NATO/US just to prove the point that they are there but practially it will be the taliban who will control afghanistan.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby jagga » 30 Dec 2016 17:59

I think DT won't pull the troops out of AFG completely. The reason is Paki nukes. AFG provides easy access to US in case of denukeing the Pakis. Therefore a certain level of troops will always be there. DT's mind would say "bring the boys back home" but brain will say keep them there. Kind of liquid oxygen situation.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Austin » 30 Dec 2016 18:11

^^ Not completely for sure but reduce its presense just to keep US sponsored Afghan government in power as long as it can .. Beyond that there is no hope for NATO troops in Afghanistan and indeed they are loosing some troops due to random taliban attack , the current presence is mearly political one.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Postby Y. Kanan » 31 Dec 2016 04:05

ramana wrote:CPEC means China is taking over TSP.
Russia is joining them for their own interests in Central Asia.
India plans to take apart TSP.
This is where things stand.


Here's how I would summarize current strategic situation:

India embraced US at Russian expense(partly deserved)
India ended with nothing but some overpriced military gear for its trouble (no nuke tech, no diplomatic support)
Pakistan fully in Chinese orbit
Russia-China axis strengthened in response to US hostility, first against Russia now increasingly against China
Russia-Pak cooperation natural extension of China already "owning" Pak and US giving up in Afghanistan.
China as hostile to India as ever
Pakistan as hostile as ever, preparing to reignite Kashmir and new terror campaign in India
India no longer benefits from Russian diplomatic support. US diplomatic support never materialized either.
INDIA STANDS ALONE. More than ever, we are alone, but we are also stronger. Maybe this is overall a good thing.


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