Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis
Posted: 31 Dec 2016 04:10
How likely is US accommodating Russia, and taking her away from China? All the Trump Putin drama made me wonder if there is any method in this.
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That's what he said in the primaries but I'm sure, in time, someone (maybe Gen. Mattis) will show him a map and explain to him that its Pakistan that is 'providing' the US with access to Afghanistan not the other way round.jagga wrote:I think DT won't pull the troops out of AFG completely. The reason is Paki nukes. AFG provides easy access to US in case of denukeing the Pakis. Therefore a certain level of troops will always be there. DT's mind would say "bring the boys back home" but brain will say keep them there. Kind of liquid oxygen situation.
Russia 'embraced' China at India's expense (1993) opening the doors to eventual rapprochement between India & the US. The emergence of a powerful and increasingly aggressive China did the rest.Y. Kanan wrote:Here's how I would summarize current strategic situation:
India embraced US at Russian expense(partly deserved)
India ended with nothing but some overpriced military gear for its trouble (no nuke tech, no diplomatic support)
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India no longer benefits from Russian diplomatic support. US diplomatic support never materialized either.
Dont think so , There is little trump can do against china because a trade war will be a nuke option for both. They would have done something may be 10 years back but leftist Obama pussy footed on china.Y. Kanan wrote:That remains to be seen. If a major US-Russia reproachment happens with Trump, it could pry Russia away from China and by extension pull them away from Pak also. I think in their heart of hearts the Russians would have always preferred to be part of western civilization vs the Asian world. Deep down Russians don't trust the Chinese. Come to think of it, no one does.
Political overview
Relations between Russia and India peaked for the year in October, when Russian President Vladimir Putin met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for their annual summit, in the verdant surroundings of Goa. Not only were the traditional pillars of defence, nuclear energy, space and energy security addressed, emphasis was placed on getting economic ties to reach their potential.
In a ‘Partnership for Global Peace and Stability, they “pledged to pursue new opportunities to take the economic ties to unprecedented heights, achieve sustainable development, promote peace and security at home and around the world, strengthen inclusive and transparent global governance, and provide global leadership on issues of shared interest.”
In its just unveiled ‘Foreign Policy Concept’ for 2016, Russia says it “is committed to further strengthening its special privileged partnership with the Republic of India based on the convergence of foreign policy priorities, historical friendship and deep mutual trust, as well as enhancing mutually beneficial bilateral ties in all areas, primarily in trade and economy, with a focus on implementing long-term cooperation programmes approved by the two countries.”
A total of 16 agreements signed after Putin and Modi held discussions saw a range of pending deals come to fruition, in the fields of defence cooperation, like an inter-governmental agreement on the purchase of the S-400 ‘Triumf’ missile defence system, energy security, nuclear issues, cyber security and anti-terrorist cooperation.
Another key issue that came up during the 17th India - Russia summit was the celebration of 2017 in a manner befitting the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations being established between the two countries. A series of events have already been launched to foreground the anniversary.
Modi highlighted the significance of the issue, saying, “As we approach the 70th anniversary of the establishment of our diplomatic ties next year, India and Russia are celebrating and building on the achievements of our past. We are working to model a partnership that befits our common ambition and meets our shared goals for the twenty-first (21st) century.”
Both Putin and Modi approved a range of events that depicted the “width and depth of multi-faceted relations that the two countries have, spanning diverse fields including political, defence, energy, trade, economy, finance, investment, culture, education, think-tanks, science and technology, sports, youth, tourism, people-to-people exchanges,” the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said in a statement.
Relations with Russia are a key pillar of India's foreign policy. Under the special and privileged partnership the two countries share, several institutionalized dialogue mechanisms operate at both political and official levels to ensure regular interaction and follow up on cooperation activities.
However, the issue of Russia’s increasing ties with Pakistan has the potential to strain bilateral relations. After the first ever joint military exercises, the first ever foreign office consultations were also held between them earlier this month.
Pankaj Saran, India’s Ambassador to Russia cautioned that there could be “problems” ahead in bilateral relations between Russia and India if Moscow continued to strengthen its defence ties with Islamabad.While broadly in agreement on jointly opposing terrorism in all its aspects, differing views on engaging the Taliban in Afghanistan also has the potential to create stress in the bilateral relationship, particularly with presidential envoy Zamir Kabulov’s emphasis that Pakistan must be a part of the solution.
Defence ties
The defence deals reached at the summit included the purchase of five S-400 missile systems (known as the ‘Growler’ in NATO nomenclature), joint production of Ka-226T (‘Kamov’) helicopters, and the acquisition and joint production of four state of the art Admiral Grigorovich-class (Project 11356) guided-missile stealth frigates.
The ‘Kamov’ helicopter deal is a key deal, being seen as a huge boost for the government's flagship ‘Make in India’ initiative. India will initially import and then manufacture Russian Kamov Ka-226 T light utility helicopters.
The two countries also agreed to conduct an annual military conference.
The Defence Minister-level India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission for Military Technical Cooperation (IRIGC-MTC) met in New Delhi on October 26 to follow up on the significant decisions in defence cooperation announced at the Goa bilateral Summit.
An important focus of discussions at IRIGC-MTC was on after-sales product support of Russian platforms and equipment. A combination of approaches is now being implemented to address it effectively, including long-term indents, life cycle contracts, collaboration in setting up workshops in India and creating manufacturing capacities in India for spares, components and sub-assemblies.
India, a leading global importer of defence hardware, is currently undergoing a $100-billion upgrade of its mostly Soviet-era military equipment.
The Indian media reported in early-November that the Defence Acquisitions Council (DAC), chaired by Defence Minister Parrikar, has approved acquisition by the Indian Army of 464 Russian T-90MS tanks, the latest version of the T-90, which is already being manufactured in India under licence and with a progressive degree of indigenization. Valued at over US$ 2 billion and reported to be the world’s largest tank contract in the last 15 years, it is to be implemented as a Make in India project.
Energy, infra links
India-Russia relations reached a new landmark in nuclear power cooperation in 2016, with President Putin and PM Modi jointly dedicating Unit 1 of the Kudankulam nuclear power project to the Indian nation. Units 2 to 6 are also on the anvil.
Earlier this year, a clutch of deals potentially worth over $4 billion when all are completed, were signed for acquiring a stake in Russian oil major Rosneft's most promising oilfields in Siberia, adding commercial depth to the Soviet-era strategic ties between India and Russia.
IndianOil, Oil India and a unit of BPCL agreed to buy 29.9% in Tas-Yuryakh oilfield in east Siberia for $1.3 billion. The consortium also signed heads of agreement for taking a 24% stake in Vankor field, also in east Siberia, for over $2 billion and pay another $180 million as its share of future capex. ONGC Videsh, the overseas arm of ONGC, signed a MoU to raise its total stake in Vankor to 26% for by acquiring additional equity at a cost of $925 million.
After the Goa summit, a deal was signed to pave the way for a group led by Rosneft to acquire a stake India's Essar Oil refinery, for a massive 5.5 billion dollars.
The two leaders also witnessed the signing of Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) on developing smart cities, transport logistics, shipbuilding and railways in Andhra Pradesh, and cooperation in oil and gas among others.
A key feature of the enhanced economic engagement between the countries this year has been the increased involvement of the Regions of Russia and the states of India with each other. Increasingly they are directly engaging each other and not waiting only for the Federal governments to power their ties.
The Goa summit saw the creation of bilateral investment fund by National Infrastructure Investment Fund (NIIF) of India with Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) to facilitate high-technology investments in Russia and India.
The North South International Transport Corridor is likely to soon become functional, raising the prospects for reduced transportation time and costs between the two countries, and providing a much required boost to bilateral economic ties.
An agreement on a free trade zone between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and India will help to realize plans to increase trade turnover between Russia and India to $30 billion by the year 2025, TASS was told by Yaroslav Tarasyuk, Russia’s trade representative in India.
“This has been a long-awaited decision. Such an agreement will greatly assist the implementation of the plan, approved by leaders of Russia and India, to increase the annual trade turnover between our countries from the approximately $10 billion today, to $30 billion by 2025,” said Tarasyuk.
Russia and India need to restart EAEU free trade agreement talks
At their meeting in Saint Petersburg, held earlier this week, the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia approved the decision to start negotiations on concluding a Free Trade Zone agreement between the EAEU and India, as well as with Iran, Egypt and Singapore.
“Such an agreement is of interest to both Russia and India. Suffice it to say that today, the customs duties on the delivery to India of machinery and equipment from Russia, is about 30%. This agreement will make the products from the Russian Federation more competitive in the Indian market,” said Tarasyuk.
The question is not how important is Af/Pak to US, but what are the most important objectives for US from Russia. In Trump's mind the first and foremost is China, followed by Iran, followed by Af/Pak. If Trump can wean Russia strategically away from China with these SOPs, Russia will be happy. If Trump is against CPEC / OBOR, he can moderate Russia's support to CPEC / OBOR as well. More than Afghan, my guess is that Trump will be focused on Iran. The first few months of his presidency will be very telling. Both Trump and his SoS are businessmen. Other than the need for a honorable exit, Americans don't have much riding in Afghanistan. However, they have with Iran. Unfortunately, Trump camp has Iran hawks, which is not good for India.Guddu wrote:I think we have a lot of threads like, India-Russia, India-China, India-Afgh etc. However, the world is interlinked and actions cannot be easily analyzed using these artificial classifications. Thus, Trump will certainly cede Syria to Russkies, will also give them Ukraine and Crimea, withdraw sanctions, the question is what will they ask in return. How important is Afghanistan/Pak to the USA. That would determine Russian foreign policy.
True, at this point for US and Russia Af/Pak is largely a geo-political game. Russian target are the 9 US bases in Afghanistan. Expect pressure from them on Afghanistan to close them down, if need be with cooperation from the local devils. Unless India does not become a land player in this game or have major security equities, expect India to get shafted by both US and Russia.Philip wrote:The sooner we /the GOI realise that the US is a tired player in AfPak. Unless Trump ups the ante there,or strikes a deal with Putin,we're going to be up the creek without a paddle supporting any regime that has Russia against it.
Such scenario makes good case for Balochistan's freedom from Paki/Chini and rest of the players.ShauryaT wrote:True, at this point for US and Russia Af/Pak is largely a geo-political game. Russian target are the 9 US bases in Afghanistan. Expect pressure from them on Afghanistan to close them down, if need be with cooperation from the local devils. Unless India does not become a land player in this game or have major security equities, expect India to get shafted by both US and Russia.Philip wrote:The sooner we /the GOI realise that the US is a tired player in AfPak. Unless Trump ups the ante there,or strikes a deal with Putin,we're going to be up the creek without a paddle supporting any regime that has Russia against it.
In India’s first official reaction to the trilateral talks, the minister of state for external affairs, M. J. Akbar said, “We do not believe that holding meetings about Afghanistan alone is going the solve the problems of Afghanistan. Eventually, it is all about delivering benefits on the ground which [can be] seen by the people of Afghanistan”.
He added that any “political settlement has to be Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled”. “Nothing else is going to work in Afghanistan”.
Akbar was speaking at the mid-term press conference held by the external affairs ministry to mark two-and-half years of the Modi government. He shared the dais with his colleague, V. K. Singh. Their senior colleague, external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj didn’t attend the press conference as she is confined to her residence as she recuperates from a liver transplant operation
Contrasting India’s approach with the other three countries, Akbar said that India had always consulted Afghanistan, even for decisions such as identifying areas for capacity building projects.
“It is eventually up to the government of Afghanistan [to decide] on who it wants to engage with and how it wants to engage and on what terms. [The] mere meeting of three-four countries and saying that we are going to work out something which will not work on the ground, will not make difference,” he asserted.
Russia has been pushing for reaching out to the Taliban, in order to focus on what it considers the real problem, which in Moscow’s view is the spread of the ISIS in the region. The three countries also expressed “particular concern” about the rising activity of ISIS’s Khorasan branch.
Akbar, however, denied that the existence of a rift between India and Russia. “[India’s] relationship with Russia has stood the test of time and we are confident that it will stand the test of the future. We do not believe that Russia will do anything which is injurious to our security or injurious to our national interest. The bridge of camaraderie is candour. And I can assure you that there is candour.”
On China, Akbar pointed out that the country had to realise the “double standard” involved in China blocking a move to list Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar on the UNSC’s sanctions panel.
“We hope China, as a mature and responsible nation, will understand that double standards are simply self-defeating, even suicidal. China has its own terrorist problems. China recognises them, addresses them in bilateral agreements. We hope and we are sure that China can be persuaded to see the depth and evil of this menace… We will continue to point out the absurdity of the UNSC 1267 committee in which 14 out of 15 countries agreed on taking action against Masood Azhar and only one held out,” Akbar noted.
The minister also reiterated the government’s consistent position that ‘terror’ and ‘talks’ with Pakistan cannot go together. At the same time, he did not endorse the view of another BJP Rajya Sabha member Subramaniam Swamy, who has previously said that diplomatic relations with Pakistan should be broken off.
“The engagement with Pakistan needs to continue as has been said and was first stated by Vajpayee ji. We have to deal with them. We deal with them eyes open, but we don’t deal with them with minds closed. In that respect, this talk of inflammation doesn’t necessarily help. We hope that Pakistan will see the path of reason. We hope Pakistan’s friends will persuade it to see the path of reason,” said Akbar.
And did he met Chinese Leader on timearun wrote:Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly is a serial offender when it comes to the rudeness of keeping leaders of other countries waiting. Our Prime Minister Narendra Modi was also a victim of Putin’s rude tardiness and in 2014 was kept waiting for an hour :
From here:
Why is Vladimir Putin so late for meetings with world leaders?
http://www.firstpost.com/politics/brics ... 20669.htmlAustin wrote:Coming from Independent News Paper of UK , I will take that with Bagful of Salt sort of #FakeNews
It wasn't even so hard to find. Don't really care who else he kept waiting.The report said, "Sections in India’s foreign policy establishment are wondering whether the avoidable delay in Putin’s landing in Fortaleza — where he knew the Indian Prime Minister was waiting for him — represents a signal from Moscow that New Delhi needs to decipher."
True. The longer we go without a land connection to CAR, and with PRC-Pak land corridor intact, the more irrelevant we're going to become to the endgame in Afghanistan and our own broader periphery.ShauryaT wrote:True, at this point for US and Russia Af/Pak is largely a geo-political game. Russian target are the 9 US bases in Afghanistan. Expect pressure from them on Afghanistan to close them down, if need be with cooperation from the local devils. Unless India does not become a land player in this game or have major security equities, expect India to get shafted by both US and Russia.Philip wrote:The sooner we /the GOI realise that the US is a tired player in AfPak. Unless Trump ups the ante there,or strikes a deal with Putin,we're going to be up the creek without a paddle supporting any regime that has Russia against it.
They are quoting the same telegraph as the source !anjan wrote:http://www.firstpost.com/politics/brics ... 20669.htmlAustin wrote:Coming from Independent News Paper of UK , I will take that with Bagful of Salt sort of #FakeNews
It wasn't even so hard to find. Don't really care who else he kept waiting.The report said, "Sections in India’s foreign policy establishment are wondering whether the avoidable delay in Putin’s landing in Fortaleza — where he knew the Indian Prime Minister was waiting for him — represents a signal from Moscow that New Delhi needs to decipher."
I don't understand. The infograph is from The independent, UK and from 2017. The news article I pointed to is sourced in 2014 and from The Telegraph, India.Austin wrote: They are quoting the same telegraph as the source !
Yes, which is why people wonder if it is deliberate signalling on Putin's part.Meeting at the highest level are very carefully choreographed event and even delay of couple of minutes is a rare thing much less hours unless there are unforseen events like fight delay or some back to back events in such case the meeting gets cancelled/rescheduled . No one will seriously wait for 3-4 hours unless there is like some flght delay.
That is like reading too much into it , If there was any serious delays or any signal we would hear from MFA etc.anjan wrote:I don't understand. The infograph is from The independent, UK and from 2017. The news article I pointed to is sourced in 2014 and from The Telegraph, India.Austin wrote: They are quoting the same telegraph as the source !
Yes, which is why people wonder if it is deliberate signalling on Putin's part.Meeting at the highest level are very carefully choreographed event and even delay of couple of minutes is a rare thing much less hours unless there are unforseen events like fight delay or some back to back events in such case the meeting gets cancelled/rescheduled . No one will seriously wait for 3-4 hours unless there is like some flght delay.
However, Russian archaeologists may have solved the puzzle. In 2009, while digging at a deep burial chamber in the forests of Mongolia, a Russian-Mongolian expedition from the Institute of Archaeology and Ethnography, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (SB RAS) discovered embroidered woollen textiles dating back two millennia.Although the archaeologists’ work is not yet complete, the first fragments restored have revealed some stunning facts. The fragments of the textile found were parts of a carpet composed of several cloths of dark-red woollen fabric. It had made quite a journey – the cloth was spun in Syria or Palestine, embroidered in north-western India and ended up in Mongolia. The discovery is nothing less than miraculous because of its improbability.Natalia V. Polosmak, Chief Researcher, SB RAS, writes: “Finding it 2000 years later is a pure chance; its amazingly good condition is almost a miracle. How it made its way to the grave of a person it was not meant for will long, if not forever, remain a mystery.”
The embroidery depicts an ancient Zoroastrian ceremony centred around a mushroom. In the middle of the composition, to the left of the altar is the king or priest, who is dressed in a smart, long embroidered kaftan gaping open at the bottom. He is focused on the mushroom in his hands.Polosmak says the “divine mushroom” resembles the well-known psychoactive species psilocybe cubensis. “The weight of evidence suggests that soma, the ancient ritual drink, has been prepared from the mushrooms of family strophariaceae which contains the unique nervous system stimulator psilocybin.”All researchers agree that ancient Indians and Iranians used for cult purposes a drink containing a psychoactive substance. The debate is about the identity of the drink and how it affected the consciousness of those who consumed it.According to Polosmak, the men depicted on the carpet are either of Indo-Scythians (Saka) or Indo-Parthian stock. They are performing a ritual that indicates they acknowledge a form of Zoroastrianism – proof of this is the symbol of Ahura Mazda, the god of the Iranians, represented by the sacred fire altar.The mushroom that the king (or priest) is holding in his hands can be an offering to the fire or it can be sanctified by the fire before being used to make the sacred drink.
“The north-western India of that time, where, in all the likelihood, the ritual is taking place, was the meeting place of three ethnos, three cultures – Indian, Iranian, and Greek. Each of them had their own gods: tolerance and worshipping not only of one’s own but also of alien gods was a common thing.”Polosmak explains further: “To get to the root of the consecration unfolding before us, we should pay attention to such seemingly insignificant details as depictions of bees and butterflies strewn all over the cloth. These insects are the most ancient symbols of worship, and used to have meanings very different from the present one.”
The bee was the symbol of honey, Indra, Vishnu and Krishna. The Atharva Veda – the fourth and last Veda – compares spiritual pursuit with honey making. The antiseptic properties of honey made it critical while preserving some foodstuffs. In Mexico, for example, honey has long been used to preserve mushrooms containing psilocybin.The butterfly too had connotations of longevity. In Greek mythology, a butterfly personified the goddess of the soul, Psyche. The Greek word psyche means both soul and butterfly. In fine arts, a soul was often depicted as a butterfly either flying out of a funeral fire or travelling to Hades. The word soul often means “divine fire”.“The butterflies and bees depicted in the background of the canvas may have symbolised the kingdom of souls – the Other World – the world of ancestors, where the warriors got to after having consumed sacred mushrooms,” says Polosmak.“Now the puzzle fits together. The insects and the mushroom are closely connected and make the surrounding world miraculous.” Recall what the Rig Veda says: “We drank soma, we became immortal, we came to the light, we found gods.”
This brings to the prescient words of another Russian genius. Indologist and Rig Veda translator Tatiana Yelizarenkova wrote exactly a decade before the Mongolian finds: “Judging by the Rig Vedic hymns, Soma was not only a stimulating but a hallucinating drink. It is difficult to be more particular not only because none of the candidates satisfies all the Soma properties and matches the Soma descriptions found in the hymns only partially but primarily because the language and style of the Rig Vedic as an archaic cult monument reflecting the poetic features of ‘Indo-European poetic speech’ is a formidable obstacle to Soma identification. The answer may be provided by archaeologists and their finds in north-western India, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (and not in the far-away Central Asia).”The mystery of the drink that gave immortality to the gods and vigour to the ancient Indians and Iranians has finally been solved. It remains to be seen if a clever entrepreneur will try and reverse engineer it from the recipe gleaned by Russian researchers from a 2000 year old carpet fragment.
--IANSPrime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday discussed bilateral issues, especially the strategic partnership nwith Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dimitry Rogozin, said informed sources.
Modi met Rogozin, who is leading a strong Russian contingent to 'Vibrant Gujarat' on the eve of the summit's start.
"Both leaders discussed various areas of the India-Russia strategic partnership including Rosneft's investment in the Vadinar refinery, cooperation in the automobile sector, discussions on cooperation between Astrakhan region and its sister State of Gujarat, and the proposed visit of the Russian Industry Minister to Delhi in March," said a source.
The two sides also discussed continuing progress in the civil nuclear energy sector.
Modi offered condolences on the dastardly killing of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey and loss of lives in the recent air crash of a Russian plane.
Rogozin reiterated President Valdimir Putin's invitation for Modi to visit Russia in 2017, which Modi accepted with pleasure, the source added.
He observed that the bilateral India-Russia Summit and the BRICS meeting in Goa were very successful and the Russian leadership was fully committed to further strengthening the strategic partnership with India.
According to the source, Modi observed that the 70-year-old bilateral relationship was on an upward trajectory, aided by his frequent meetings with President Putin. He welcomed increasing Russian investment in various states of India.
"Specifically in the context of Gujarat, Prime Minister said that India and Russia should strengthen cooperation in the areas of diamond cutting and polishing, dairy production, and the automobile sector," he added.
The 8th edition of the Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit will be held here January 10-13 with the central focus of "Sustainable Economic and Social Development".