Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis
Posted: 06 Jun 2018 21:18
kit and habal we can follow up in Indian interests thread....
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I believe they are paying us, as It's not Yanqui.Parasu wrote:So what is the price of Russian LNG that India is paying?
Rudradev, one curious thing I've noticed over the years is this. Nations targeted by the U.S. for a "color revolution" often experience droughts or other mysterious disturbances to the their ecologies/agricultural sectors/public health in the years prior. I wonder if this is the real reason for the U.S.'s fury over India's purchase of the S-400. The S-400 has no peer in the world regarding the targeting of very/extremely (VLO/ELO) stealthy aircraft.Rudradev wrote:There is something specific about the S-X00 ADS that makes the US cr@p its pants.
Remember how they freaked out and screamed "red line" when there was even a chance that S-300 may get sold to Syria or Iran.
And right now it's specifically the S-400 sale that's being cited by the US in its threatening noises against India. They haven't moaned about BrahMos, FGFA, even nuclear submarines, but this system for some reason is of massive concern to them.
I think the truth is (and they know it)... the S-400 can quite reliably swat any Western 5th-gen moochine, F35/F22/EuroFighter/Rafale etc. out of the sky like macchhars. Not to speak of CMs and BMs. It puts a major hole in US/NATO control of escalation matrices because airstrikes and SLCM are among the first punitive military measures they resort to in their global policing.
In a sense it is as "destabilizing" to their threat matrix as India getting nukes. They're OK with China having nukes, and China having S-400 because their plans preclude any attempt to do an Iraq/Libya/Syria to China. But for India that IS an option they want to preserve. When we get the S-400 it's fundamentally disruptive to their calculus.
I was curious about the price, but your reply will do.bahdada wrote:I believe they are paying us, as It's not Yanqui.Parasu wrote:So what is the price of Russian LNG that India is paying?
In fact the gas is so pure, Modi will be renaming the PMUY scheme to Putin Mitron Ujwala Yojana.
If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen.Parasu wrote:US has pathological hatred for Russia. Its sickening.
They are trying to destroy the Russian mil-industrial complex via CAATSA type laws. If successful, that will leave US as the sole power with superior technology weapons. China is not there and will likely take another 50 years. Europeans have self-destructed their armaments industry.
When India refused to invest in FGFA, Putin probably believed India to have become a party to the American design. The Sochi summit has helped calm down the Russians.
We all know that, how does this contribute to this thread or is pertaining to India - Russia relations ?RoyG wrote:[
If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen.
All nations seek advantage over others even if that means subjugating/destroying them.
Well whining about it certainly doesn't.krishna_krishna wrote:We all know that, how does this contribute to this thread or is pertaining to India - Russia relations ?RoyG wrote:[
If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen.
All nations seek advantage over others even if that means subjugating/destroying them.
The FGFA is coming .. to India guys. Most likely the MKI route. So future looks LCA1/2 MWF/MCA and FGFA/RAFALERoyG wrote:If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen.Parasu wrote:US has pathological hatred for Russia. Its sickening.
They are trying to destroy the Russian mil-industrial complex via CAATSA type laws. If successful, that will leave US as the sole power with superior technology weapons. China is not there and will likely take another 50 years. Europeans have self-destructed their armaments industry.
When India refused to invest in FGFA, Putin probably believed India to have become a party to the American design. The Sochi summit has helped calm down the Russians.
All nations seek advantage over others even if that means subjugating/destroying them.
Why should it be sickening for a sane, rational, INDIAN (leaving out Russi/Amriki fanboys from this category)?Parasu wrote:US has pathological hatred for Russia. Its sickening.
Not all nations.RoyG wrote:If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen.Parasu wrote:US has pathological hatred for Russia. Its sickening.
They are trying to destroy the Russian mil-industrial complex via CAATSA type laws. If successful, that will leave US as the sole power with superior technology weapons. China is not there and will likely take another 50 years. Europeans have self-destructed their armaments industry.
When India refused to invest in FGFA, Putin probably believed India to have become a party to the American design. The Sochi summit has helped calm down the Russians.
All nations seek advantage over others even if that means subjugating/destroying them.
By sickening, I only meant its abnormal. I dont care two hoots about US or Russia.Bart S wrote:Why should it be sickening for a sane, rational, INDIAN (leaving out Russi/Amriki fanboys from this category)?Parasu wrote:US has pathological hatred for Russia. Its sickening.
Except for narrow areas where it might affect our interests, why should we care or get emotional if a bunch of white people want to fight each other to the death. We need to stay focussed on ourselves and our own interests.
The S-400 is a pipe dream. It will be a decade plus before India gets the S-400. The Russians first have to make enough for themselves and then the Chinese who signed the deal back in 2014 and have only received shipment of just 1 battalion. The Russians don’t have the ability to for large scale industrial production. They are in the leagues of Italy and Spain. By 2025, the Chinese will have their own version of S-400 and crank them out like papads.Philip wrote:One report said that the S- 400 missiles we're being offered are superior to those China has.Terminal " hittile" capability, no warheads.Hypersonic.
numbers : ~320 (as of October 2017, there were at least 320 launchers (41 artillery battalions) deployed in 21 regiments . (source Wiki)Mort Walker wrote:The S-400 is a pipe dream. It will be a decade plus before India gets the S-400. The Russians first have to make enough for themselves and then the Chinese who signed the deal back in 2014 and have only received shipment of just 1 battalion. The Russians don’t have the ability to for large scale industrial production. They are in the leagues of Italy and Spain. By 2025, the Chinese will have their own version of S-400 and crank them out like papads.Philip wrote:One report said that the S- 400 missiles we're being offered are superior to those China has.Terminal " hittile" capability, no warheads.Hypersonic.
The Europeans and Turkeys are also in the list of getting sanctioned due to JCPOA and Tarriff , The Indian and Chinese are facing the same tariff barrier , The Orange guy was indeed complaining 2 days back about India ......get ready for some more tariff on usParasu wrote:US has pathological hatred for Russia. Its sickening.
They are trying to destroy the Russian mil-industrial complex via CAATSA type laws. If successful, that will leave US as the sole power with superior technology weapons. China is not there and will likely take another 50 years. Europeans have self-destructed their armaments industry.
When India refused to invest in FGFA, Putin probably believed India to have become a party to the American design. The Sochi summit has helped calm down the Russians.
Russia's Ambassador to India Nikolay Kudashev has said his country and India have a special and strategic relationship in the real sense of the word because of the efforts put in by External Affiars Minister Sushma Swaraj.
Speaking on the occasion of Day of Russia celebrations at the embassy on Tuesday evening, Ambassador Kudashev said, "The presence of Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj at the celebrations to mark this day at the Russian Embassy in New Delhi not only reminded many of the glorious past which both countries so proudly cherish, but it also reflects the rebuilding of the trust, which according some quarters has been fading."
Ambassador Kudashev thanked Swaraj for her personal valuable contribution in strengthening bilateral ties and cooperation between India and Russia.
Commenting on the friendship that exists between the two countries, Ambassador Kudashev said, "It is heartening to note that one of the first major international initiatives taken by newly born Russia was the signing of the Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation with India on January 28, 1993. This year marks the 25th anniversary of the document, as well as the 71st anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between our countries, which are one of a kind, rich in substance and unique in terms of mutual respect, trust and benefit."
"Russia and India may proudly boast of their durable and multi-pronged ties, defining the true essence of a special and privileged strategic partnership. Annual summits, held alternately in two countries, are key events of the year providing major boosts to further advance of bilateral cooperation," Ambassador Kudashev added.
Recalling the meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Sochi last month, Ambassador Kudashev said, "We have seen recently a new phenomenon - an informal summit - meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Sochi last month, which I had a privilege to attend and witness, the next annual summit is set for this October in India."
"While celebrating the Day of Russia, we can proudly note that it is people-to-people contacts and mutual affinity that really makes the Russian-Indian friendship so strong. It comes as no surprise that it is our common goal to continue fulfilling the inexhaustible potential of Russia-India trade, investment, technological, scientific and cultural interaction as well as strengthening our cooperation multilaterally in the near future and beyond. Friendship and strategic partnership of Russia and India has all the prerequisites to thrive and blossom for the security and prosperity of not only our nations, but also the world at large," Ambassador Kudashev added
The Russian Embassy in New Delhi hosted a lavish reception on Tuesday evening to mark the day which saw the entire premises lit up in a colour theme matching with their national colors. The White Hall saw a gathering of hundreds of guests - influential Indian politicians and public figures, businessmen and officials, cultural and scientific celebrities, activists of Russian-Indian friendship societies, journalists and representatives of Russian companies.
The celebration was also attended by diplomats from various countries.
Highlighting the India-Russia friendship, Praveen Pathak, spokesperson, BrahMos Aerospace, said, "India-Russia relations are time tested. If there was any country which supported India during sanctions was only Russia. We got all the support from Russia. India reciprocated in the same way and stood by Russia in 90s when Russia was going through a difficult period. Joint ventures like Brahmos, which emerged in 1998 supported Russian defense industries and defense institutions in a big way."
"In fact, the first launch of Brahmos took place on 12th June 2001, on Russia Day. Today Brahmos is a shining example of India-Russia cooperation in the field of defense, which has been recognized by President Putin and PM Modi around the globe,"Said Praveen Pathak, spokesperson, BrahMos Aerospace.
Udit Raj, Lok Sabha MP from North West Delhi, said, "Russia is our natural friend. But in later years we were more tilted towards western countries and the U.S. It is our mental block, which need to be broken. There are tremendous business opportunities in Russia which need to be explored. Now, time has come to strengthen friendly relations and to promote people's diplomacy between India and Russia to new high.
When foreign minister Sushma Swaraj and defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman travel to Washington next month for the first of the annual '2+2' strategic dialogue with their respective US counterparts Mike Pompeo and Jim Mattis, they will have Russia on their mind. Specifically, how to insulate Indias military preparedness from the threat of US sanctions, which has hung a sword of Damocles over the country's military ties with Russia.
In January, the US law CAATSA (Countering Americas Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) came into effect. The law imposes sanctions on Russia, North Korea and Iran as well as countries buying arms from them.
A senior government official says while the sanctions imposed after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 focused only on Russian firms, CAATSA shifts the US attack to foreign countries doing business with all Russian military firms. This has serious implications for India, one of Russia's largest defence partners for nearly 50 years. It not only needs spare parts for warships, fighter jets, radars and battle tanks that now make up nearly 60 per cent of its weaponry, the sanctions impact arms deals worth over $12 billion that the Indian armed forces are seeking to counter China and Pakistan.
The navy has recently negotiated the lease of a second nuclear-powered attack submarine from Russia for $2 billion. The amount will pay for the lease and refit of a Russian navy Akula-2 hull, which is to join the navy in the next decade to replace INS Chakra, which was leased from Russia in 2008. The army needs to urgently replace its ageing fleet of Cheetah and Chetak helicopters with Kamov 226 light utility helicopters, 140 of which will be manufactured in India as a joint venture between Russian Helicopters and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). The Indian Air Force wants five S-400 surface-to-air missile systems worth over Rs 40,000 crore from Russia to significantly offset the disadvantages of its depleted fighter squadrons when facing the air forces of China and Pakistan in case of a two-front war. Each missile has a range of nearly 400 km. When deployed on the border, they can cover vast reaches of Pakistan's airspace (the US-made Patriot PAC-3 missile has a range of just 70 km).
All of these deals will see significant currency transactions, which are likely to attract provisions of CAATSA, but given Indias financial constraints, the deal for S-400 missiles seems closest to the finish line. The S-400 contract is likely to be signed when President Vladimir Putin visits India later this year for the 19th Annual India-Russia bilateral summit. This one deal will thus be the test case of the Indian government's ability to withstand United States sanctions, particularly since the US regards this particular missile system with deep suspicion.
We have clearly explained to the US that India and Russia's defence cooperation is a time-tested relationship.
- Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman
On May 28, Mac Thornberry, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, told journalists in Delhi that there is "a lot of concern in the US in both the administration and the Congress" over the S-400 system. "And there is concern that any country, and it is not just India that is looking at clearing it, but any country that acquires that system will complicate our ability to work out inter-operability," Thornberry said.
THE WAY OUT
CAATSA forces New Delhi to choose between strategic partners Russia and the US. A decade since the signing of the landmark Indo-US nuclear deal in 2008, the relationship has blossomed into a thriving arms partnership, with the United States becoming India's second-largest arms partner. Both countries regularly hold a series of military manoeuvres under the recently renamed 'Indo-Pacific Command' and have shared common concerns over a rising China.
Meanwhile, CAATSA and the unpredictability of the Donald Trump administration have forced a subtle reset in New Delhi and driving India and Russia closer.
Even as the US gears up to counter a China-Russia axis, New Delhi has reiterated its belief in a multi-polar world. On May 21, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Putin at an informal summit in Sochi, Russia. On May 29, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, a key figure in the India-Russia relationship, got Pankaj Saran, India's ambassador to Russia, as his deputy national security advisor. And on June 5, defence minister Sitharaman came out with an emphatic endorsement. "In all our engagements with the United States, we have clearly explained to them that India and Russia's defence cooperation has been going on for a long time and that it is a time-tested relationship. We have also mentioned that CAATSA cannot be impacting on this," she said in New Delhi.
Adds a senior defence official: "We are not the Dominican Republic or Canada, we are India and we have conveyed our concerns to the US administration."
"It is quite obvious there is a division between the Trump Administration and the US Congress, which is full of Russia baiters, on this issue," says G Parthasarathy, former Indian High commissioner to Pakistan. "Amongst the countries the US is targeting and looking for cooperation for its Indo-Pacific strategy are Vietnam, Indonesia and India--all three vital for achieving its aims. All three have placed orders for or looking forward to doing this for more Russian weaponry. The Americans will have to be told that not just the "Quad" but many who share our views on Indo-Pacific will look at this action as not being friendly."
The United States was already conscious of the impact of CAATSA on partners like India. Signing the bill into law last August, President Donald Trump raised objections, terming it 'seriously flawed' because it limited the executive branch's flexibility on foreign policy. On April 27, Mattis told a Congressional hearing by the Senate Armed Services Committee that a national security waiver be urgently provided to India and other countries, which are trying to turn away from Russian-sourced weapons, to avoid sanctions under CAATSA.
Responding to the request, the US Senate this month inserted four new clauses under Section 1292 of the Act 'Enhancing Defense and Security Cooperation with India' in its defence budget passed last month. The new clauses empower the Trump administration to suspend CAATSA sanctions, but it has to certify that India was reducing its dependency on Russia 'and has a desire to continue doing so', as Thornberry told the media in New Delhi.
The clauses are of the nature of describing 'limitations that hinder or slow (down) progress' in Indo-US ties, 'a description of actions India is taking, or the actions the Secretary of Defense or the Secretary of State believe India should take', to advance the relationship with the United States, measures that can be taken by the United States and India to improve interoperability. And, lastly, it also inserts a clause 'progress in enabling agreements between the United States and India'. The last reflects the US administration's pique over India's slow progress in 'foundation agreements', such as LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement), signed in 2016 after nearly a decade. The Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) are yet to be signed.
"It's not just the S-400 deal, but India's strategic autonomy that is at stake," says Vice Admiral A.K. Singh (retired), a former commanding-in-chief, Eastern Naval Command. "Hopefully, our leaders will realise we cannot break ties with Russia. The United States is the world leader in anti-submarine warfare, stealth technology and drone technology, but will never part with it or even sell it. There are certain technologies only the Russians will give us." With the 2016 commissioning of the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine INS Arihant, India recently operationalised the third leg of its nuclear triad, the ability to fire nuclear-tipped missiles from under the sea. This could not have been done without considerable Russian assistance.
ON THE GROUND
Meanwhile, India and Russia have moved away from US dollars and euros and now do business in rupees and roubles. Agreements are being re-drafted and new modes of payments being established between Indian and Russian state-owned banks. Syndicate Bank, Vijaya Bank and the Indian Bank and Sberbank of Russia have been designated to handle the rupee-rouble payments for India to pay for Russian military purchases. The payments bypass SWIFT transactions, which are routed through New York. The first contracts were redrawn recently for the $208 million mid-life upgrade of a Russian-built Kilo class submarine in Russia. But while these relatively minor deals might go under the radar, it is the big-ticket items like the S-400 missile system that have the potential to cause worry in South Block.
"We have to stand firm while making payments arrangements, making it clear to the US that any attempt to pressurise us on the score will only make us prefer exporters like France, Germany and Israel, over US firms. We have to mobilize the Indian community and other friends in the US to lobby on this. There are clearly many in the Administration and Academia who share our views. The Secretaries of State and Defence back us," says Parthasarathy.
A waiver from the US administration will leave a strong negotiation lever in with the US, which they can use to extract other concessions from India. Under present circumstances, India's choices seem pretty limited.