Acharya wrote:Iran is just posturing. Question is now that US is sanctionining Iranian oil. Does the US have the capability to prevent Iran from exporting oil?
There will be no punitive action against Iran directly.
But the trading partners will make a choice and stop trading with Iran which will damage the economy and create a unstable political situation leading to a spring revolution and Iran becoming more open.
Thats the easiest way out, but the problem is India Russia PRC. We are refusing to give up oil trade. Although PRC is implementing sanctions against Iran now(just a few months ago). Only Russsia and Malaysia are resisting.
Acharya ji, no direct action strategy is changed as of last month. Its the last option on the table still. Iran is closer to getting the maal than was expected.
This is supposed to create a ripple effect.
Economy > unstbaility > spring revolution > change in regime.
Iran will change in 3 years. Liberal Irani s are looking forward to it
Thats the aim, the latest sanctions are moving this process faster. This is the only long term solution to the N issue. Short term - may have to do direct action. Iran knows hence asking for talks to stall the US. They will accept andrenege on deal.