Iran News and Discussions

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chetak
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by chetak »

Shanmukh wrote:Looking at the map, it is clear that Chabahar is also in Baluchistan [Iranian Baluchistan, but Baluchistan, all the same]. Wiki chacha, while not giving the exact composition of the population of Chabahar, hints that the population is majority Baluch in Chabahar county. Should the Chinese get hold of Chabahar, is it possible for India to deny them use of [or at least, make it painful for the Chinese, the use of] either Chabahar and/or Gwadar?
but at what cost to the baluchis who will wind up carrying the can
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Mollick.R »

India set to lose Farzad-B gas field; Iran to prefer domestic companies over foreign firms
PTI Last Updated: Oct 18, 2020, 01:48 PM IST

New Delhi: India has all but lost the ONGC Videsh Ltd-discovered Farzad-B gas field in the Persian Gulf after Iran decided to prefer domestic companies over foreign firms for development of the field, sources said.

ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL), the overseas investment arm of state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC), had in 2008 discovered a giant gas field in the Farsi offshore exploration block.

OVL and its partners had offered to invest up to USD 11 billion for development of the discovery, which was later named Farzad-B.
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Sources said unconfirmed information suggests that Iran has identified a local firm for the development of the field, but OVL has not yet given up hopes and continues to chase Iranian authorities for the contract.

The 3,500 square kilometre Farsi block sits in water depth of 20-90 metres on the Iranian side of the Persian Gulf.

OVL, with 40 per cent operatorship interest, signed the Exploration Service Contract (ESC) for the block on December 25, 2002. Other partners included Indian Oil Corp (IOC) with 40 per cent stake and Oil India Ltd (OIL) holding the remaining 20 per cent stake.
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The Indian consortium has so far invested around USD 400 million in the block.


Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 730406.cms
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by pankajs »

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 7820276736
Those blaming India for Farzad-B gas field in Iran cancellation should also realize that even China pulled out gas field projects in Iran
https://tinyurl.com/y2czg92a

Fact is without western eqmnt no gas fiepds can be developed & no western company will give due to US sanctions

https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-china-sout ... 01771.html
Iran Says China Has Pulled Out Of South Pars Natural Gas Project
Plus Iran has becomes very ornery once there is some relaxation on the sanctions front.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Paul »

Tuan
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Tuan »

Last edited by Tuan on 27 Nov 2020 22:32, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Amber G. »

^^^IMO not a good news - Killing a old and fairly known scientist at this time will have NO effect to stop any nuclear bomb(s) they may be planning to make and it will make it extremely difficult to bring Iran *back* in the nuclear deal.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Vinod Ji »

Amber G. wrote:^^^IMO not a good news - Killing a old and fairly known scientist at this time will have NO effect to stop any nuclear bomb(s) they may be planning to make and it will make it extremely difficult to bring Iran *back* in the nuclear deal.
I guess that was the intension.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ Of course. There was a weird tweet from Trump regarding this. Scorch earth policy - starts as many fires to make things difficult for the new administration. BRF may not be the right place but I may put my thoughts briefly in India-US Relations where I mentioned this news (and got sort of attacked/mocked for these views).
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Amber G. »

Newspapers are full of speculations and reactions - seem very serious.
From newspaper stories:
- Many believe that the killing may raise tensions in the region, and may complicate incoming US President Joe Biden's relationship with Iran.
- Robert Malley, adviser Obama on Iran, claimed that the attack was timed in order to make Biden's attempts to negotiate with Iran more difficult. (Similar views have been tweeted by other important people)
- Biden had pledged to rejoin the Iranian Nuclear Deal. (This is now complicated)
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by SRajesh »

Amber G. wrote:Newspapers are full of speculations and reactions - seem very serious.
From newspaper stories:
- Many believe that the killing may raise tensions in the region, and may complicate incoming US President Joe Biden's relationship with Iran.
- Robert Malley, adviser Obama on Iran, claimed that the attack was timed in order to make Biden's attempts to negotiate with Iran more difficult. (Similar views have been tweeted by other important people)
- Biden had pledged to rejoin the Iranian Nuclear Deal. (This is now complicated)


Meaning it may not be just Mossad but CIA/Mossad or Neo-Con/Mossad attempt to Hamstring the the new the regime or ????Trumpva's Parting 'Gift' to 'Smoking Joe' :D :D
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Mort Walker »

^^^The policy of Iranian assassinations, extra judicial killings, goes back to the Obama administration. It is conveniently ignored and attempted to blame this on Trump.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Lisa »

If this is true!!!!

https://www.dailywire.com/news/remote-c ... ort-claims

Remote-Controlled Machine Gun On Top Of Truck Killed Iranian Scientist Before Self-Destructing With Bomb, Iranian Report Claims
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by darshhan »

Amber G. wrote:^^^IMO not a good news - Killing a old and fairly known scientist at this time will have NO effect to stop any nuclear bomb(s) they may be planning to make and it will make it extremely difficult to bring Iran *back* in the nuclear deal.
I Guess Mossad doesn't agree with you. Neither do facts. You could have stated "little or some effect" instead of "no effect" and that would have been true to some extent.

Just check who was Gerald bull, what happened to him(by israelis again) and what was the impact. There is a wikipedia page on him

Killing scientific manpower including Program Managers always has some impact on the delivery timelines.

There is another way to disturb the scientific manpower which is much more subtle and can be as effective.i.e discrediting or destroying the concerned personnel's reputation using the laws and processes of his own country/organization. For eg Padma Bhushan Shri Nambi Narayanan ji.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by darshhan »

Lisa wrote:If this is true!!!!

https://www.dailywire.com/news/remote-c ... ort-claims

Remote-Controlled Machine Gun On Top Of Truck Killed Iranian Scientist Before Self-Destructing With Bomb, Iranian Report Claims
Lol. Someone sure knows how to troll. This was too important a target to be left to Remotely controlled machine guns.

The killing carries all the Hallmarks of a standard israeli Kidon team. Professional competence and daring of Israeli intelligence/Special ops has been amply demonstrated in this case.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by brar_w »

Mort Walker wrote:^^^The policy of Iranian assassinations, extra judicial killings, goes back to the Obama administration. It is conveniently ignored and attempted to blame this on Trump.
Exactly and the fact that Israel has to live in that region means that if they decide that this is beneficial to their overall security than there is very little a given US administration can do or would want to do unless it can intervene and somehow provide assurance. At the end of the day, Iran's leadership doesn't really hold anything back in showcasing their ambitions regarding Israel and its existence so Mossad is going to do what is in its power with our without US support. Delaying Iran's nuclear weapon program is and should be right at the top of the priority for Israel and Mossad so they'll do pretty much anything they can to work at that problem.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Vivek K »

Were any assassinations of Iranian officials carried out during Obama's terms?
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Mort Walker »

  • 5 January 2007 Ardeshir Hosseinpour Unknown Died
    12 January 2010 Masoud Alimohammadi Gheytariah Street, in front of Alimohammadi's house Assassinated
    29 November 2010 Majid Shahriari Near Artesh Boulevard Assassinated
    29 November 2010 Fereydoon Abbasi Velenjak, in front of Shahid Beheshti University Survived
    23 July 2011 Darioush Rezaeinejad In front of his house Assassinated
    11 January 2012 Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan Ketabi Square, Golnabi Street Assassinated
    27 November 2020 Mohsen Fakhrizadeh Damavand, east of Tehran Assassinated
Mossad basically has a free hand in this. This assassination signals a return to Obama era policies. Notice neither political party in the US has questioned this except for liars and cranks like former CIA director Brennan. My question is, when will India be given the strategic space to do the same in it's neighborhood?
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by brar_w »

There was never really any deviation from this policy (of destabilizing and delaying Iranian nuclear and BM program by whatever means necessary ) even during Trump so the return is rather moot. The only difference was that the Trump administration was more proactive and willing to put some of their own muscle towards this like when Soleimani collided with a hellfire. Israel was also, at will, attacking any Iranian or Iranian proxies in Syria that it saw fit and there was also BM and launch infrastructure in Iran that was mysteriously exploding. The fact that Israel has made some headway at improving relations with the Sunni ME states definitely works in its favor of continuing to use any means necessary which is understandable since the stated position of the Iran's rulers is that they want Israel (as a state) to be weakened or completely wiped out.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by KLNMurthy »

Mort Walker wrote:
...
My question is, when will India be given the strategic space to do the same in it's neighborhood?
Maybe the answer is in the “given” word used in the question.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Mort Walker »

The deviation between the policy of killing scientists vs. military personnel in US controlled areas is different. Qasem Soleimani was eliminated at Baghdad International Airport. After 2012, the assassinations of Iranian scientists probably played a role in bringing them to the negotiating table. This latest one again signals the Iranians that they should return to negotiations. Biden intermediaries with Israel most likely gave the go ahead as none are speaking out against this.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Mort Walker »

KLNMurthy wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:
...
My question is, when will India be given the strategic space to do the same in it's neighborhood?
Maybe the answer is in the “given” word used in the question.
The reality is, if India acts against the strategic wishes of the US in its own region, it will face consequences. What is needed is for the US to disengage from the Indian subcontinent.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by vera_k »

In the current situation where India has not shown the desire to act, it will mean that China steps in to the vacuum. If there are consequences, they have to be faced and overcome.

United Kingdom and the American Civil War
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Vivek K »

Actually preemptive strikes were employed by George W Bush. The 2007 strike was pre-Obama.

India does not need approval to accomplish its strategic objectives. Unless prior approvals for Uri and Balakot and forays inside Myaanmaar were required. Added Later: I think it is more of lack of strategic vision that is to blame for India not carrying out strikes at terror bases inside enemy territory during peace time.

The larger question here is - are we under pressure to condemn the assassination? What would that do to relations with Israel? Has Iran supported us on Kashmir?

Seems like India should remain silent since there doesn’t seem to be any gain from supporting Iran.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Mort Walker »

Military strikes are very different from political assassinations as part of strategic policy. India has never used assassinations as strategy tools. If India were to target Pak scientists and military generals within Pak, ME, UK, and US would be another thing altogether. India is not looking for permission from the US, but what it needs is the lack of US interference.

The recent Iranian scientist assassination is the return of previous policy.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Lisa »

darshhan wrote:
Lisa wrote:If this is true!!!!

https://www.dailywire.com/news/remote-c ... ort-claims

Remote-Controlled Machine Gun On Top Of Truck Killed Iranian Scientist Before Self-Destructing With Bomb, Iranian Report Claims
Lol. Someone sure knows how to troll. This was too important a target to be left to Remotely controlled machine guns.

The killing carries all the Hallmarks of a standard israeli Kidon team. Professional competence and daring of Israeli intelligence/Special ops has been amply demonstrated in this case.
Really?
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by darshhan »

Lisa wrote:
darshhan wrote:
Lol. Someone sure knows how to troll. This was too important a target to be left to Remotely controlled machine guns.

The killing carries all the Hallmarks of a standard israeli Kidon team. Professional competence and daring of Israeli intelligence/Special ops has been amply demonstrated in this case.
Really?
Yes Ma'm
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by KLNMurthy »

Mort Walker wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:
Maybe the answer is in the “given” word used in the question.
The reality is, if India acts against the strategic wishes of the US in its own region, it will face consequences. What is needed is for the US to disengage from the Indian subcontinent.
Don’t know what to say to this.

India can’t act till it is guaranteed by the US that there will be no consequences to those actions?

Tell me I am reading you wrong.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by chetak »

KLNMurthy wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:
The reality is, if India acts against the strategic wishes of the US in its own region, it will face consequences. What is needed is for the US to disengage from the Indian subcontinent.
Don’t know what to say to this.

India can’t act till it is guaranteed by the US that there will be no consequences to those actions?

Tell me I am reading you wrong.
if the US disengages from the Indian subcontinent, not only are we going to be left high and dry but also f##### and far from home.

that is exactly what the hans want so that they can halal us at their leisure, knowing very well that we will never precipitate any crisis for them unless provoked beyond tolerance.

they have come as close as they can possibly come in bhutan, lanka and very recently, also in nepal. They have been less than a stones throw away from us both in pukiland as well as afghanistan for many years.

we will get no guarantees from the US but then again, we need the US to continue to cast a long shadow over the region so as to keep the hans in check and we will only benefit from this arrangement in the medium turn.

As our economy continues to grow, the US will wield increasingly lesser influence over us while the hans will start to get increasingly antsy.

nepal today simply does not know what hit it, after the hans moved in and grabbed nepalese land without so much as a by your leave :mrgreen:

It needs only one eyetalian mafia BIF run/influenced dispensation to reset the entire equation and leave India floundering once again.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Amber G. »

darshhan wrote:
Amber G. wrote:^^^IMO not a good news - Killing a old and fairly known scientist at this time will have NO effect to stop any nuclear bomb(s) they may be planning to make and it will make it extremely difficult to bring Iran *back* in the nuclear deal.
I Guess Mossad doesn't agree with you. Neither do facts.
Facts do agree with me. You see, I do know - personally some in the scientific community (both in US and Iran) and besides past events have been quite well documented in reputable journals/newspapers -- sorry I have no time to discuss or convince others who are putting all sort of nonsense in dorky media.

Time will tell the details of who/how exactly this happened - but at present those who know have come out and are saying (even those who are normally hawks) that *only* thing this event did was a scorch earth policy (in all likelihood with knowledge of Trump) to make Biden (and EU and other nations) work harder - to get back into nuclear deal with Iran. This is not only my point of view but top people in US admin are saying this.

(Even Mossad is not claiming this - they are not denying it either - and many in Israel are not happy)

over and out. (probably last comment from me on this topic.)
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Mort Walker »

It will have no impact on the nuclear deal. Iran will rejoin and everyone will say “hurray” we can inspect for U235 production, but Iran has already started on Pu239 production/acquisition, hence the reason Israelis have been knocking off Iranian physicists. This is a policy operationalized during the Obama-Biden administration.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Vinod Ji »

You can call Iranians determined,obstinate or stubborn what ever you like. They are less likely to change by force or hard times unless their very existance is at stake. Real power is sepah & not what you see.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by vimal »

That’s what they said about Iraqis too, even older civilization than Iran. Pen is mightier than blah.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Rony »

Iranians are less likely to change by force ? I have nothing against them but Arabs forced Iranians to become Sunnis and Turks forced them to become Shias.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by srikandan »

I think Indian views of Iran's origins, whether it was fathered by sunnis and mothered by turkey seems less relevant than their overall cussedness and refusal to adhere to basic transactional expectations among nations, and that too in the very recent past, which should carry more weight in our analysis. They suckered money out of India when they were under sanctions from the US and then reneged on written contracts with India. That alone is sufficient to point that India is better served by supporting all actions that put Iran under pressure, whether it is taking out their nuclear sites or their scientists. Definitely not in India's interests to support moves like IRanian nuclear deal, though that definitely works for the US interests which will replace Pakistan with Iran in their strategery, and use Iran against India, and Iran will be more than happy to oblige, going by past behaviour.

As others have pointed out earlier in this thread, India should support any and all moves to keep Iran under financial, strategic, and any other kind of pressure on Iran given their general aholery towards India, making them a hostile state as far as India's interests are concerned.

I am talking about stringing India along when US was putting pressure on it, and then turning around and reneging on all written contracts with India once the US wanted to do a nuclear deal with Iran under Obama. They refused to trade in Indian currency, reneged on Indian contracts after India had spent multi-millions on chahbahar port, and on top of that sent its assassins into India, not to mention taking out the Indian RAW network with a helping hand from the jihadi VP Hamid Ansari -- I used to wonder back then why he made speeches in the Indian parliament about making the details of RAW operations public, around the time he was asking for public revelations of RAW operations under the UPA govt. circa 2006. Handing over the civilian kulbhushan to the pakis also had their official involvement.

As long as the clerics and ayotollahs are running Iran, they are a hostile country -- so while being on the side of the Iranians, their current regime is nothing short of hostile when it comes to India. The Indian govt. already seems to have taken this approach given how they gotten closer with UAE and Saudi Arabia, that act in a more reasonable and responsible manner when it comes to addressing Indian bilateral interests, relatively speaking.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by srikandan »

Iran is being courted by the US to replace Pakistan which is currently swirling down the pakistan. Possibly the US hope is that courting Iran will open the gates for logistics via Iran into Afghanisthan, which is the reason for "offering a nuclear deal" to Iran, or so it seems. If the paki army were not steadily losing control of their territory to their homegrown jihads, they will be courted by EU and US, but Pakistanis helpfully pissed off Macron and most of the EU with their posturing for the ummah, so their utility is reduced even if we discount Chinese influence on the Pakis.

If Iran is plan B to get supplies to US troops in Afghanisthan, US strategy to "Regime change" like in Syria/Iraq will not be applied here, as that closes all roads to Afghanisthan. If the US moves out of Afghanisthan, they will not be able to return as the vacuum will be filled, so they have to stay there and invent reasons for being there. Iran is clearly being courted by the Hillary clones in the US, including the incoming ones in the new regime. It is only a matter of time before the "nuclear deal" is given to Iran, life will get all better for the Iranian regime. Going by their behavior with India, it is also a matter of time before they renege on the deal, and have the Chinese hand them nuclear weapons.

There seems to be a political realignment in western and eastern asia of (a) Pakistan, Malaysia, Turkey, Qatar (b) Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE (and other smaller GCC countries). Iran may well join group (a) if the US's "nuclear deal" does not materialize. But then again, the incoming bunch of patriots are willing to commit election fraud, with a little help from Big Tech and Big media, and have the ability to put someone they want in power. Like in any true Banana republic, you have to destroy the republic to save it. So maybe all of this Iran-US scenario is overblown, as they clearly have far greater problems closer to home.

And if we go by the past script for such "strategic thinking" in the west, the next sequence of events will be as follows:
1) North Korea will again start polishing and testing its missiles, with help from their benevolent benefactor China.
2) China will helpfully hand nuclear tech to the Iranians like they did with Pakistan and NoKo.
3) few more iranian sites will get bombed and Iranian scientists will meet an unpleasant end.
4) All the US "weapons control" experts will go and handle the "north korean crisis" or "Irania crisis" every couple of years, and enjoy the joy of being de-briefing by North Korean security, which comes with a free all-round orifice examination.
5) Experts will write op-eds on whether Iran's disgusting behavior requires a regime change, and whether all civilized people should rustle up a "coalition of the willing" to go bomb Iran.
etc.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by chetak »

Mort Walker wrote:It will have no impact on the nuclear deal. Iran will rejoin and everyone will say “hurray” we can inspect for U235 production, but Iran has already started on Pu239 production/acquisition, hence the reason Israelis have been knocking off Iranian physicists. This is a policy operationalized during the Obama-Biden administration.
what's wrong with an assassination or two or three among friends.

makes the heart grow fonder, no

didn't the eyeranians attempt to do the dirty in dilli some time ago to some diplomat's wife, no less, and all the hullabaloo passed off within a day or two.

some dilli journos are rumoured to have purchased high end cars following the pointed non reporting of that event :mrgreen:
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Lisa »

Top nuclear scientist was assassinated with help of 'satellite device,' Iranian media reports

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/06/midd ... index.html
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ Few comments:
(Disclaimer: I have known/worked with Israeli physicists since 1970, have travelled there many times and of course relationship between the scientific communities is very close. I also have good friendship with Iranian scientists too. In any case, what I am posting here has been covered in main stream media so if you want to check please do - opinions are mine but they are informed opinions)
- The talk about "satellites and remote controlled from Israel" is bunk(IMO) . No one seriously believes it. Even Mohsen Fakhrizadeh's son has come out and told that.
(Edited later: I seem more and more reports of satellite/AI etc.. I still think, as said before, local controlled - someone was in immediate vicinity and Iran's security failed to check that - anyway I may post more later)
- The narrative, first introduced by Iran itself (first tweet was from their security head), was to hide the embarrassment of the failure of the security. (No culprits were shot or captured etc). (Even CNN had story about that)
- There were local people (with remote control etc - but not sat communications) who blew up the car with remote control (thus destroying evidence) and things like that - more will come out soon. (There is quite a bit pressure from Iran's other agencies so the details are not going easier to hide.
- It is almost certain that it was a very crude and dangerous attempt by Netanyahu and Trump to help in local politics (Israel also has election coming soon - and N and T are helping each other they say. Biden's team is *very* angry (N has talked to B but Biden was not aware and now has warned N not to pull anything further).
( "assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was political rather than nuclear; to provoke Iran into retaliation that will pull them into military conflict, and to complicate future diplomacy under Biden" as someone put it)
- Iran which was showing some restrain (they too have an election and hardliners will make it very hard to keep showing it) but pressure is very high.
- The *actual* impact (in slowing down or impact on nuclear program) is - and here everyone I have talked to agree - is close to zero. The program which Fakhrizadeh was heading has many *hundreds* of bright scientists at present and the impact (other than physiological) is insignificant.
- Even much publicized assassination about 10 years ago - touted here in brf more than a few times - really did not effect the nuclear program apart from making those scientists martyrs, and attracting many young PhD's to Iran's program.)
- It is interesting to note that, Iran (like India) does have a civil nuclear program (Israel does not )..they do have interest in satisfying their energy need.

Time will tell...
Meanwhile:
If you are an Israeli (or US scientist) there is high state of alert. Especially if you live in say Dubai (for example is a favorite place - in normal year there, I was told, about 50,000 Israelis visit every year ) or planning any places to visit etc.. There may be some terrorist type activities (in places like Yemen, and even Saudi etc) against US/Israeli interests.
India (I am glad they are acting wisely) should stay out of it.. should look for it's own interest etc.
Last edited by Amber G. on 07 Dec 2020 23:57, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by srikandan »

The existence of competent nuclear scientists in Iran only provides a cover for Iran's nuclear program when China proliferates to Iran, as they will. Taking out these scientists removes that fig leaf for Iran, and is in India's interest. Iran's nuclear programme is opaque and claims that "killing scientists does not stop any thing" are missing the point -- even an Incompetent Qadeer Khan was touted as "father of Paki nukes" when the guy was nothing of the sort -- this was done by the same lowlives in the US that are now pushing for a "Iran nuclear" deal. It is not in India's interest for Iran to become a nuclear power, and that means supporting degradation of all human and other resources that propel the Iranian nuclear program. Newer physicists can be trained with money and time, and it takes a lot less time to eliminate said resources, the point is to keep slowing down Iran's nuclear program -- it is certainly not in India's interests to stand aside while Iran becomes a nuclear power like India did with pakistan.

Calling moves to degrade Iran's nuclear program by Trump/Netanyahu as dangerous is plain and simple touting US interests in Iran, which does not converge with Indian interests. If anyone is pretending otherwise, then maybe an outline of how exactly US and India's interests align is in order, or it is a just hot air. India sitting quietly on the side and watching the world go by, which other actors arm Iran for their own reasons -- this maybe good for the US and Iran, but it is a net security negative for India.
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