Bharat Rakshak

Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb
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SPECULATION: A previously inflexible regime is doomed when it starts giving *partial* concessions/reform.

+ Gorbachev
+ Iranian (1st) rev.
+ Russian rev.
+ Assad's release of Islamist prisoners
+ French rev.

More examples? Counteramples?

hanumadu wrote:Where is the counter from Islamists in Iran? One would expect islamists would come out in greater number and take on the protestors. Islam survivies only because of the force they are willing to bring on their opponents. In this case, how much force and violence are the islamists and the govt willing to bring on. If they are not, does that mean there are not many fundamental muslims in Iran? Did Iran turn a leaf for the good?

RSS should prepare and be ready with foot soldiers on the ground to target shias for gharwapsi in India before sunnis and christians pounce on them.

Karthik S wrote:If Iran goes back to being Persia, why it means it's weakened ? And where will IS return?

IndraD wrote:

Karthik S wrote:If Iran goes back to being Persia, why it means it's weakened ? And where will IS return?

Iran is backbone of Shia miltia such as Hezbollah and many rag tag shia militias fighting all over ME against Sunni radicals such as IS.
In Iraq they fought along side Shia led govt with parliament legitimacy.
If Iran becomes a non Islamic country there will no more be funding for Hezbollah/Houthi et al as a result they getting crushed by Sunni radicals, whatever be their new name.
Also lets get reminded one of demands of Iran protest is my life for my iran (meaning stop funding fight in Yemen, Iraq, Jordan etc).

IndraD wrote:WATCH: New video shows #IranProtest heading towards the residence of Supreme Leader Ali Khameini. Other intel shows that senior regime officials have already fled #Iran on unmarked jets https://twitter.com/JacobAWohl/status/9 ... 7192996865

IndraD wrote:WATCH: New video shows #IranProtest heading towards the residence of Supreme Leader Ali Khameini. Other intel shows that senior regime officials have already fled #Iran on unmarked jets https://twitter.com/JacobAWohl/status/9 ... 7192996865

IndraD wrote:Does any one think with Iran weakening IS may return?

The police and internal security forces “fully control the situation in Tehran and other cities of Iran where street protests took place,” the Al Mayadeen TV channel quotes Ramezan Sharif, a spokesman for the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), as saying.

According to Sharif, “the law enforcement agencies are coping with their duties well.” “There is no need for assistance from the IRGC and interference in the developments,” the general said.

The Al Mayadeen TV network earlier reported that special units to suppress riots occupied Tehran’s Azadi, Enghelab and Ferdowsi Squares on Monday. According to the TV channel, a group of about 100 protesters appeared in the center of the city in the evening on Monday, which was dispersed by law enforcement officers. The police were able to detain one of the instigators of the street protests.

John O. Brennan‏Verified account
@JohnBrennan

With wholesale condemnation of Iran and nuclear deal over past year, Trump Admin squandered opportunity to bolster reformists in Tehran and prospects for peaceful political reform in Iran. Bluster is neither a strategy nor a mechanism for exercise of U.S. power and influence.

Philip wrote:Perfidious Albion! The Brits, or more properly the English, have been meddling about in Mespot and Persia for centuries.After oil was found in the last century and the RN, " Rule Britannia and all that jazz, switched over to oil instead of coal for their warships, control of the oil wealth and states with huge reserves was one of the most important foreign policies. British agents from Reilly downwards have played the game in the Gulf, especially in Iran.Mossadegh was ousted in a coup involving both the CIA and Brit. Intel. History trying to repeat itself.The Brits should remember the Suez crisis.It failed miserably, turned Nasser into an Arab hero , scalped Eden and saw British influencd in world affairs plummet to its lowest ebb.The Suez crisis was its last gasp of imperial warring.
It will come a cropper in Iran who will swat its mischief makers like flies.

Austin wrote:Former CIA Chief Slams Trump for Derailing 'Peaceful Political Reform' in Iran

John O. Brennan‏Verified account
@JohnBrennan

With wholesale condemnation of Iran and nuclear deal over past year, Trump Admin squandered opportunity to bolster reformists in Tehran and prospects for peaceful political reform in Iran. Bluster is neither a strategy nor a mechanism for exercise of U.S. power and influence.

Peregrine wrote:
Donald Trump, the only politician in the world, who doesn’t lie about being a liar, threatened Pakistan with aid withdrawal this new year’s day

[

Iran's Revolutionary Guard: People, Security Forces 'Have Broken the Chain' of Unrest
January 07, 2018 6:26 AM
VOA News
Iranian worshippers chant slogans during a rally against anti-government protestors after the Friday prayer ceremony in Tehran, Jan. 5, 2018. t

Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) said in a statement Sunday that the Iranian people and the country's security forces played a role in ending the recent wave of unrest that the IRGC says was fomented by foreign enemies.

The group said in a statement, "The new epic of the proud, conscious, pious, and revolutionary Iranian people, along with the distinguished presence of tens of thousands of loyal Basij volunteer forces in calming the riots and the sincere endeavors of the brethren of the Law Enforcement Force and the Intelligence Ministry have broken the chain woven by America, Britain, the Zionist regime [Israel], the Saudi royal family, the Hypocrites [the banned Mojahedin-e-Karl Organization] and monarchists and eliminated the witchery of a new sedition."

Iran's parliament holds a special session Sunday to discuss the anti-government protests that began December 28 and continued into the following week.

In this photo taken by an individual not employed by the Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside of Iran, people are affected by tear gas fired by anti-riot police to disperse demonstrators in a protest over the country's weak economy, in Tehran, Iran, Dec. 30, 2017.
Iran's ISNA news agency reported that Iran's interior minister, head of intelligence and security council chief are all expected to attend. On the agenda are discussions of the root cause of the protests, as well as legal help for protesters jailed during the demonstrations.

The session was called by a group of reformist lawmakers, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. In a letter, those lawmakers called for legal assistance for the detained and condemned any outside "interference" in the protests, calling out the United States in particular.

U.S. President Donald Trump is set to soon decide whether to continue waiving sanctions on Iran that were suspended under the 2015 international deal on Iran's nuclear program. The waiver must be renewed every 120 days, according to U.S. law. Trump could decide not to renew, putting U.S. trade sanctions back into effect.

In Europe, supporters of the anti-government protesters in Iran have been gathering to show their support in The Hague, Berlin, Hamburg, Stockholm, London and Paris.

People demonstrate in solidarity with anti-government protests in Iran near the Iranian embassy in Paris, France, Jan. 6, 2018.
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At least 22 people have died in the protests and more than 1,000 have been arrested. Hard-line cleric Ahmad Khatami told worshipers in a sermon Friday that those arrested should be treated as enemies of Islam, particularly those who have burned the flag. "There should be no mercy for them," he said.

Government official Mansour Gholami has told reporters that about a quarter of those arrested have been released, but he did not provide exact numbers.

The United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting Friday at the urging of the United States.

U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley called the protests "a powerful exhibition of brave people who have become so fed up with their oppressive government that they are willing to risk their lives in protests." She also addressed the Iranian government, saying, "the U.S. is watching what you do."

In response, the Iranian ambassador, Gholamali Khoshroo, said it is a "discredit" to the Security Council to hold such a meeting on Iran in the face of the conflicts taking place in Yemen and elsewhere in the Middle East. He, along with a number of Security Council members, said the United States is meddling in Iran's domestic affairs.

Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations Gholamali Khoshroo, front, speaks during a Security Council meeting on the situation in Iran, Jan. 5, 2018, at United Nations headquarters in New York.
After the meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted, "The UNSC rebuffed the U.S.'snaked attempt to hijack its mandate ... Another FP [foreign policy] blunder for the Trump administration."

Still, U.S. intelligence officials warn Tehran is at a crossroads, noting the protests are the biggest outpouring of public discontent since Iranians took to the streets in 2009 following a disputed presidential election.

"The protests are symptomatic of long-standing grievances that have been left to fester," an intelligence official told VOA on condition of anonymity. "Will it address the legitimate concerns of its people or suppress the voices of its own populace?"

"What is clear is that these concerns are not going away," the official said.

Critics of Iranian President Nassan Rouhani say he has abandoned the poor, pointing to rising prices for key commodities like fuel, bread and eggs.

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Iran’s security and national interest really doesn’t need wide uncontrolled manifestations when Takfiri (religious extremists i.e. al-Qaeda and ISIS) can destabilise the country and yet blend in. Moreover, Iran is also under threat from neighbouring countries like Saudi Arabia, who promise to destabilise the country from within. This follows the victory of Iran and its allies in Iraq and Syria, as well as its support to the Houthis in Yemen that is stopping Saudi Arabia from celebrating a quick victory despite its superior fire power, siege and the indiscriminate slaughtering of civilians. Also, Israel prefers to divert attention from Gaza to the events in Iran, to turn the world’s attention away from its doings in Palestine.

The greatest danger the Iranian leaders feel is coming from Israel and from the current US administration. This has manifested especially as the defiance has been publicly declared by the commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard General Qassim Soleimani who sent a clear message asking the US forces to leave Syria. Moreover, Soleimani declared his readiness to finance and arm Palestinian organisations in Palestine to fight Israel and stop the implementation of Donald Trump’s decision to declare Jerusalem the capital of Israel.

Trump did not stand still watching: since he is in office, the US President has been working to revoke the nuclear deal, threatening his European partners – who took a different stand for the first time against the US at the UN – if they deal with Iran and help the Islamic Republic recover its economic prosperity.

Because the war has come into the open between Iran and the US (and all its allies in the Middle East), Saudi Arabia expressed its readiness to join the efforts, along with Israel, to curb the Islamic Republic of Iran and destabilise it. This leads us to the most plausible conclusion that the Iranian hardliners – who are leading the Revolutionary Guards, the Basij and the “Axis of the Resistance” – have no interest in supporting the ongoing protests which are hitting this weak economy. These protests – to the hardliner’s disadvantage – are allowing enough space for international and regional intervention to organise themselves and support those in the street.

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deejay wrote:Who's behind the protests in Iran - an excellent and informative piece by Elijah Magnier. Elijah Magnier is one of the more informed analysts and columnists on the Levant crisis and has been closely tracking things in Middle East for some time.

https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2018/01/ ... -benefits/

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These Iranian protesters in the street are today composed of angry youth pushed by economic grievances: others are, and remain, anti-regime, they never accepted the Islamic Republic ruling. Some protesters are pro-Shah, and others are pro-US. All this mixture with these various titles are melting together, with different objectives and goals.