Iran News and Discussions

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Austin
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Austin » 02 Jul 2018 16:00

No doubt India is backstabbing Iran when there is no reason to do so , We have our own relation with Iran whcih is independent of US policy.

US policy itself is dubious the previous adminstration along with P-5 signs the JCPOA and the Trump for his own petty reasons backed out , Even India had approved for JCPOA so why is India backstabbing Iran is beyond understanding

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Karthik S » 02 Jul 2018 17:27

Well in that case Iran has been backstabbing us with its stand on Kashmir. Let's wait till full picture comes out. We are going ahead with S400. If we are indeed bowing down too pressure, we wouldn't have gone ahead.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Austin » 02 Jul 2018 18:22

Saudi has been openly funding Kashmir Sepratist and PAkistan but we didnt do any thing about it. OIC has been openly anti-India on Kashmir

The JCPOA was accepted by all parties and was long negotiated deal but Trump came and like a manic just unilaterally opted out and now is pressurising India to reduce oil import while at the same time threatening us with sanctions.

Why should we reduce oil imports or break our strategic relations with Iran because Trumps wants to what is there to gain and why would any body trust us in future.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby dinesha » 02 Jul 2018 21:13

Beyond JCPOA: Examining the consequences of US withdrawal
https://www.orfonline.org/research/4205 ... ithdrawal/

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Parasu » 04 Jul 2018 03:34

India is "backstabbing" Iran for the same reasons Russia has backstabbed Syria in the past by not giving it S-300.
Basically Russia doesnt want to spoil its ties with West and Israel.
Those roos-lovers who propose that india oppose US everywhere should first ask Russia to do the same.
We cant possibly be holier than the pope. Can we?!

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Austin » 04 Jul 2018 18:23

On Iran, India To Make Its Case To US, National Interest First: Sources''

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/on-iran ... -topscroll

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Austin » 04 Jul 2018 18:31

It would be better for Iran to work with China for Yuan payment for Oil and let Chinese buy most of Irans oil or any country that pay Yuan for it.

Eventually India and EU will chicken out under US pressure and will give into US zero oil import from Iran.

Bolton/Nutcase Bomb Iran plan will have to be neutralised , Already WTI has reached $75 with just the threat of stop buying oil from Iran, Countries like India will end up paying more USD per barrel screwing our CAD with no benefits for it other than losses for supporting such plans.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby chetak » 10 Jul 2018 21:57

Its one of the reasons that iran is not dependable country. They always put their requirements first when dealing with India. They won't dare to push around russia like this.

This reeks of blackmail and an essentially bad and selfish read of a really dangerous international situation that's about to become much worse.

India will lose 'special privileges' if it buys crude from Saudi Arabia, U.S.: Iranian diplomat



India will lose 'special privileges' if it buys crude from Saudi Arabia, U.S.: Iranian diplomat

Kallol Bhattacherjee NEW DELHI, JULY 10, 2018


Massoud Rezvanian Rahaghi also argues that India’s investment promises in the port of Chabahar have not been delivered.

Iran will end “special privileges” for India if New Delhi tried to replace Iranian crude with supplies from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States, said a senior Iranian diplomat in New Delhi on July 10.

Speaking at an event organised by the All India Minorities Front at the Parliament annexe, Massoud Rezvanian Rahaghi said that Iran had tried to help India whenever possible on strategic issues like energy and connectivity, but argued that India’s investment promises in the port of Chabahar have not been delivered.

“In previous round of U.S. sanctions between 2012 to 2015, Iran did its best to ensure security of oil supply to India. ...However, if India were to replace Iran with countries like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, U.S. and others for the 10% of its oil demand then it may have to revert to dollar-denominated imports which mean higher CAD and deprivation of all other privileges Iran has offered to India,” Mr. Rahaghi said.

The Iranian response comes days after India was asked by the Donald Trump administration to drastically cut down crude supply from Iran. India has not spelt out how it would address the concerns of the U.S. government. The Ministry of External Affairs has maintained that Delhi would consult “all stakeholders” in ensuring energy security.

The Iranian official said that Iran remained an open market for Indian requirements like petroleum, , urea and LNG and Iran understood India’s energy requirements.

U.S. withdrawal from nuclear deal
Mr. Rahaghi also spoke about the impact of U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, also known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and argued that unilateralism by the U.S. was imposing a heavy cost on the world. He cautioned that a conflict in the Gulf region would “drive up” the price of crude oil and impact growing powers like India and China.

Mr. Rahaghi said that Iran came as a “blessing” to India in New Delhi’s quest to access the markets of the emerging economies in the Central Asian region but hinted that Tehran is not satisfied with India’s investment levels in the Chabahar port.

“...It’s unfortunate that Indian investment promises for expansion of Chabahar port and its connectivity projects have not been accomplished so far, and it is expected that India take immediately necessary measures in this regard if its cooperation and engagement in Chabahar port is really of strategic nature,” said the Iranian diplomat.

Iran reserved the right to act in response to U.S. measures. “Iran and Syria are winning against terrorism and some of these forces are now coming to Afghanistan,” he said while asking regional powers to remain vigilant of spill over effects from the wars in West Asian region.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby shyamd » 11 Jul 2018 01:43

Indian move is because Trump admin are plotting war with Iran - there is no room for negotiation on cutting oil. First step is to bleed iran of funds, pressure trading community and minorities to create unrest.
Iran is swiftly losing its friends - most recently PRC rebuked Iran for threatening to close the straits. Iran has been put on notice. Iran's only choice is to conduct covert negotiations.

Tensions are running high in the region. Smaller neighbouring states sending senior diplomats flying urgently to DC, EU, PRC and New Delhi to discuss these issues and the new strategic realities in the region (read KSA-UAE alliance).

Expect India to be called to keep it's commitments to keep the straits open. There will be a ramp up of mil presence in the region.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby chanakyaa » 11 Jul 2018 05:48

Well, lot of dhoti shivering being presented in the Indian MSM on Eye-ran subject, obviously keeping in mind not to pi$$-0ff ungle. Regardless of how dependable eye-ran is (irrelevant here), for India to loose its independence in determining who it should maintain relationship with and by how much (for oil/gas or otherwise) is....sad and depressing.

Hundreds and thousands of multinational businesses from Massa are deeply interested in entering Indian markets for trade and business. Over the years, more milk and honey business have entered India from agri, industrial, tech and other sectors than other way around. And, it is Indians who are afraid of pi$$ing off ungle. Wah bhai wah. This is one way of NOT cashing in on population dividend. Where are those god d@mn sanctions?? Bring it on.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby chetak » 11 Jul 2018 06:31

chanakyaa wrote:Well, lot of dhoti shivering being presented in the Indian MSM on Eye-ran subject, obviously keeping in mind not to pi$$-0ff ungle. Regardless of how dependable eye-ran is (irrelevant here), for India to loose its independence in determining who it should maintain relationship with and by how much (for oil/gas or otherwise) is....sad and depressing.

Hundreds and thousands of multinational businesses from Massa are deeply interested in entering Indian markets for trade and business. Over the years, more milk and honey business have entered India from agri, industrial, tech and other sectors than other way around. And, it is Indians who are afraid of pi$$ing off ungle. Wah bhai wah. This is one way of NOT cashing in on population dividend. Where are those god d@mn sanctions?? Bring it on.


The pro iran articles and coverage in the Indian media is simply iran's own doing. There are enough freelancers among the presstitutes in the DDM who are very willing to do as their masters wish as long as payment is forthcoming.

Next, the local shia lot will start lobbying and whining.

It used to work earlier but not with this govt.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Prem » 11 Jul 2018 07:30

Saudi/ UAE just signed 44 Billion $ partnership for refinery at Ratnagiri. It is 50/50 venture. Iranian have not invested penny in India.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby chanakyaa » 11 Jul 2018 08:01

Invest of this magnitude is a positive thing, but I'm curious, do you know why they waited all these years to invest in 2018? Not that Indians just came out of caves and figured out how to use oil. If the refinery is Saudi/UAE investment, agreement would require that all the oil processed is Saudi/UAE, who are squarely controlled by ungle. Always some strings attached, no?? Don't disagree that eye-ranians may not have invested in India, but if they were good at such things why would their own energy (esp. nat gas) sector at home be so underutilized and under-invested all these years? And, we import boat load of Gold each year and not require companies to set up gold processing plant here, do we?

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby yensoy » 11 Jul 2018 09:24

Prem wrote:Saudi/ UAE just signed 44 Billion $ partnership for refinery at Ratnagiri. It is 50/50 venture. Iranian have not invested penny in India.


And in the event of sanctions, we hand over the control of Iranian factory to Unkil? A country which is under sanctions regime will be loath to make any investments outside of its sovereign territory. I don't blame them. Then again, I don't know enough about their outbound investments (just looked up Wikipedia, not many significant investments compared with the other biggies).

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby yensoy » 11 Jul 2018 09:38

chetak wrote:Its one of the reasons that iran is not dependable country. They always put their requirements first when dealing with India. They won't dare to push around russia like this.

This reeks of blackmail and an essentially bad and selfish read of a really dangerous international situation that's about to become much worse.

India will lose 'special privileges' if it buys crude from Saudi Arabia, U.S.: Iranian diplomat


You are surprised a country is putting its interests first?

Iran is literally grabbing at straws here. Russia can offer full protection from Unkil because they are already sanctioned, China can do so to a limited extent because they have the political/economic/military might. We can't.

I think it is common knowledge that if India cuts off Iranian oil cold turkey, oil prices will go through the roof, a billion+ people will be super pissed with the US, the government won't get re-elected (left parties and congress will have a field day) and the economy will tank. No government will let that happen, so if it came to it, GoI will show Unkil the finger. At that point, American investments into India or lack thereof will be tertiary concerns to GoI.

OTOH, if US is able to guarantee that prices will continue to be stable for us even without Iranian oil, we will unfortunately have to concede.

Chabahar is another non-negotiable point for us, except in this case Iran is threatening to cut off access if we stop buying oil from them.

Eventually this is what I think will happen:
1. There will be some exception granted to us to continue to buy reduced amounts of Iranian oil. This will be barter trade, and expect restrictions on what we can export (read: humanitarian needs only). Most of the rest of the countries will stop purchasing Iranian oil.
2. In addition to the above, we will increase purchases from US/SA. Oil prices will be held stable by increased production from US/SA.
3. Chabahar will continue in some shape but no big investment from our side.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby chetak » 11 Jul 2018 10:06

yensoy wrote:
chetak wrote:Its one of the reasons that iran is not dependable country. They always put their requirements first when dealing with India. They won't dare to push around russia like this.

This reeks of blackmail and an essentially bad and selfish read of a really dangerous international situation that's about to become much worse.

India will lose 'special privileges' if it buys crude from Saudi Arabia, U.S.: Iranian diplomat


You are surprised a country is putting its interests first?

Iran is literally grabbing at straws here. Russia can offer full protection from Unkil because they are already sanctioned, China can do so to a limited extent because they have the political/economic/military might. We can't.

I think it is common knowledge that if India cuts off Iranian oil cold turkey, oil prices will go through the roof, a billion+ people will be super pissed with the US, the government won't get re-elected (left parties and congress will have a field day) and the economy will tank. No government will let that happen, so if it came to it, GoI will show Unkil the finger. At that point, American investments into India or lack thereof will be tertiary concerns to GoI.

OTOH, if US is able to guarantee that prices will continue to be stable for us even without Iranian oil, we will unfortunately have to concede.

Chabahar is another non-negotiable point for us, except in this case Iran is threatening to cut off access if we stop buying oil from them.

Eventually this is what I think will happen:
1. There will be some exception granted to us to continue to buy reduced amounts of Iranian oil. This will be barter trade, and expect restrictions on what we can export (read: humanitarian needs only). Most of the rest of the countries will stop purchasing Iranian oil.
2. In addition to the above, we will increase purchases from US/SA. Oil prices will be held stable by increased production from US/SA.
3. Chabahar will continue in some shape but no big investment from our side.


India always comes off second best in dealings with iran. This cannot be true always. They are sellers and we are the buyers, buyers who have a much wider option of sellers than iran has of buyers.

Mutual respect is cheap and best, arrogance based on BS will not pay dividends.

US Oil sanctions on iran are premised on the fact that the US has already prevailed on the saudis to take up the slack in supply from iran, the saudis have already agreed and they will ramp up their output accordingly.

iranian oil will then go underground and be sold via the blackmarket at even cheaper rates.

So the oil supply will be maintained at its present level. Prices may be marginally affected because iranian oil usually sells at a discount due to its difficulty in refining whereas the sweet saudi oil is in great demand and has much wider acceptability. Not many countries have the capability to refine the sour iranian crude.

India however does and reliance does this with high refinery margins too.

India also exports refined petroleum products like petrol and diesel back to Iran and that will also be hit badly, a double whammy for iran.

India has ready access to sanction busting sources like russia and venezuela.
Last edited by chetak on 11 Jul 2018 10:12, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby pankajs » 11 Jul 2018 10:12

I also read/heard this bit a while back about some of the Iranian oil making its way to the world market via Iraq.

Watch the Iraqi oil exports trend going forward and Indian import trends from Iraq.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby chetak » 11 Jul 2018 10:34

pankajs wrote:I also read/heard this bit a while back about some of the Iranian oil making its way to the world market via Iraq.

Watch the Iraqi oil exports trend going forward and Indian import trends from Iraq.


iraqi oil normally gets out quietly via turkey through networks controlled by erdogan's family members.

One suspects that iranian oil may well follow the same routing.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby habal » 11 Jul 2018 11:03

that is kurdish oil that goes out via turkey. Surely Iraq is having basra and other oil fields. Those are massive oil facilities bordering kuwait like majnoon, rumaila etc. Then mosul oil fields like qayyarah are in Iraqi control. Only kirkuk, diyala oil field are in kurdish control.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Parasu » 11 Jul 2018 11:10

chanakyaa wrote: for India to loose its independence in determining who it should maintain relationship with and by how much (for oil/gas or otherwise) is....sad and depressing.

India loses its independence/strategic autonomy/foreign-policy everytime it does something in its own interest. Its independence/strategic autonomy/foreign-policy remains intact if it does no deals which further its interests. It must remain a stiff-necked beggar preaching morality to everyone aka Nehru and non-alignment.
I wonder why we were forced to open our economy when we already had such a happy and cheerful foreign policy for 40 years. And why our economy has taken off since?

Hundreds and thousands of multinational businesses from Massa are deeply interested in entering Indian markets for trade and business. Over the years, more milk and honey business have entered India from agri, industrial, tech and other sectors than other way around. And, it is Indians who are afraid of pi$$ing off ungle. Wah bhai wah. This is one way of NOT cashing in on population dividend. Where are those god d@mn sanctions?? Bring it on.

You know something that economists and governments dont. Such fire-eating bravado is what has made Indian economy five times smaller than the chinese economy. I wonder where the entire $150 billion of indian IT exports would go. And am sure we will wreck the US economy when total trade of India with US is less than 1% of US GDP.
All those millions and billions of American companies, salivating on Indian maket, invest in countries only after they get the go ahead from white house. Why dont they invest in Russia, Iran, Cuba?! And no, neither they nor US would go broke if they dont extract milk and honey from demographic dividend in a country where 30% of people live below poverty line.
We may mock the pakis for all the strategic brilliance but we arent any less brilliant. Independent foreign policy = strategic autonomy = H&D, Jindabaad jindabaad.
Besides, what exactly has Iran done for India ever? What is its stand on Kashmir? on Pakistan? Chabahar is an Iranian port where Indian morons are footing the bill!!
For these mullahs, who invited the Chinese to invest in Chabahar, who declared chabahar and gwadar sister ports, who have been singing tunes of Islamic unity, we must shaft ourselves in the name of independent foreign policy/strategic autonomy/chest thumping.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby dinesha » 11 Jul 2018 12:26

EU’s Big Three agree to establish dollarless trade with Iran – Lavrov
https://www.rt.com/business/432363-eu-d ... rade-iran/

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby kit » 11 Jul 2018 12:41

Prem wrote:Saudi/ UAE just signed 44 Billion $ partnership for refinery at Ratnagiri. It is 50/50 venture. Iranian have not invested penny in India.


Do they have enough to spare :mrgreen:

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby kit » 11 Jul 2018 12:42

dinesha wrote:EU’s Big Three agree to establish dollarless trade with Iran – Lavrov
https://www.rt.com/business/432363-eu-d ... rade-iran/


India should join them !

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Austin » 11 Jul 2018 13:57

Trump only goal is to fight a war with Iran and the only rational is Israel wants it lead by current PM Nutyahoo

The previous Obama administration went to deal with Iran along with P-5 which caused so much of heartbreak and Jealousy within Israel establishment.
All Isreal wants to see is Iran destroyed and if it means using Trump and Saudi for its cause its fine

The Big 3 agreeing on Dollarless trade with Iran is a great news and EU will use Euro instead to trade with Oil/Gas , All are showing their middlefinger to Trump and every one except Israel and US lead by Trump wants to preserve JCPOA

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Austin » 11 Jul 2018 14:21

One thing many dont realise that any sanction on Iran in the lines US wants it would bump up the oil prices beyond $100 barrel , even if the talk of made the Brent go about $75 and its $ 77 today.

This is a indirect way of bumping up oil prices and enriching the Saudis/OPEC , US Shale OIl and Russia .... It is not that Saudis would give us oil at $60 we would have to pay a market price and should war errupt it will go beyond $150.

This is like taxing the oil conusming nations like India and many others and increasing our CAD and affecting our growth while rewarding Oil producing companies , This is something we should never support.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Philip » 11 Jul 2018 15:01

India should stand firm and secure its strategic interests in Iran.We've pussyfooted with Iran for far too long over Chabahar,oil,etc. If the EU are going in for $$$-less trade deals,why not India? The US cannot blackmail India too.If they do sanction us,ban Coke,Pepsi and the junk food chains in return!

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby pankajs » 11 Jul 2018 15:18

https://twitter.com/YusufDFI/status/1016752395768946688
Yusuf Unjhawala @YusufDFI

Iran criticises India for not making promised investments in Chabahar port | Iran just trying to pressure us. Chabahar work is going on. Before Trump withdrew from the nuke deal, they played the China card.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... UuXfL.html
No investments, no special privileges, Iran tells India over Chabahar Port

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Parasu » 11 Jul 2018 17:50

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/YusufDFI/status/1016752395768946688
Yusuf Unjhawala @YusufDFI

Iran criticises India for not making promised investments in Chabahar port | Iran just trying to pressure us. Chabahar work is going on. Before Trump withdrew from the nuke deal, they played the China card.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... UuXfL.html
No investments, no special privileges, Iran tells India over Chabahar Port

Just the beginning.
Indian stupidity in investing in Chabahar is evident. We are handing a lever to an islamic jihadi state to blackmail us. After taking our money and investment they are going to backstab us. This game has been played many times before.

All Isreal wants to see is Iran destroyed

And Iran wants Israel to prosper and flourish as regularly stated by cape wearing human rights and peace activists of Teheran.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Haresh » 11 Jul 2018 21:05

I have worked with a few Iranians. They have had 45 yrs of islam, they are fed up with it.
Just do some basic research on the increasing resistance to the mullahs in Iran.
Trump is determined to overthrow them, if he is elected for a second term, which seems likely then I would give the mullahs 5 yrs.

Armed resistance is growing, weapons are being seized from the IRGC & other regime forces.
Turmoil is growing.

When they are overthrown the new secular regime will turn to those who supported the mullahs and say "what did you do to free us?"

India should expect no loyalty or anything special from the theocrats, their loyalty is to the ummah, whether Kashmir/Pak/Turkey.

It is going to be a big fall and quite possibly the end of shia islam.
A friend of mine who is an ex Iranian army officer has told me that we can expect mass apostacy, veil AND koran burning.
If India plays it's cards right then it will have a secular friend right next to pukistan.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Austin » 12 Jul 2018 10:50

Iran Assures India On Oil Supply Day After Diplomat's Warning

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/amid-us ... -topscroll

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby yensoy » 12 Jul 2018 11:00

Our investment in Chabahar is small, just enough to keep skin in the game and have a pathway to Afghanistan. Between the fact that we are always starved of cash, don't have the ego or muscle to pull of showcase projects, and being fully aware that the situation in Chabahar can turn on a dime (due to Unkil, Mulla, and don't discount Afghan government's own outlook & lack of control of southern provinces) I am sure our perceived weakness is a calibrated response to the various factors.

If China wants to invest in Chabahar, more power to them. Why buy the cow when all you want is the milk?

dinesha wrote:EU’s Big Three agree to establish dollarless trade with Iran – Lavrov
https://www.rt.com/business/432363-eu-d ... rade-iran/


Don't believe all that you read in RT. The article refers to a statement made last week about a provision to maintain trade with Iran, and this is a nominal declaration of autonomy, nothing else. In practice, they will fall in line with Trump.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Neshant » 12 Jul 2018 12:40

Austin wrote:Iran Assures India On Oil Supply Day After Diplomat's Warning

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/amid-us ... -topscroll


The irony is that India now has less reason to trust supplies from Iran regardless of what they "assure".

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby ricky_v » 12 Jul 2018 12:41

A few points of contention,
Haresh wrote:I have worked with a few Iranians. They have had 45 yrs of islam, they are fed up with it.
Just do some basic research on the increasing resistance to the mullahs in Iran.
Trump is determined to overthrow them, if he is elected for a second term, which seems likely then I would give the mullahs 5 yrs.

Yes, the resistance is growing from the zog empire machinations, but they are primarily economic in nature and other considerations are also rans.

Armed resistance is growing, weapons are being seized from the IRGC & other regime forces.
Turmoil is growing.

The IRGC is quite literally the entity that runs iran, google baba does not show any result that the weapons of irgc are being seized, who will do the seizing anyway?, they are the government themselves (well the army of the theocracy, but the supreme commander is the ayatollah), the local abdul would surely remember the time irgc was formed and the after-79 pro-reza purge. Plus the entity that has set aflame the entirety of mid east would surely have the foresight to safeguard against fukery at home.

When they are overthrown the new secular regime will turn to those who supported the mullahs and say "what did you do to free us?"

India should expect no loyalty or anything special from the theocrats, their loyalty is to the ummah, whether Kashmir/Pak/Turkey.

This was not the template of the usual anglo chicanery, their guy was the loser in this tilt, it was a popular people movement against pseudo sovereignty, and they clung to islam for the purpose. If anti-government forces are active again, it is just the zog righting the wrong.

It is going to be a big fall and quite possibly the end of shia islam.
A friend of mine who is an ex Iranian army officer has told me that we can expect mass apostacy, veil AND koran burning.
If India plays it's cards right then it will have a secular friend right next to pukistan.

Iran as of now has a higher penetration profile in the me and ca because of islam, if they abandon this vessel for an ambiguous notion of secularism, they would lose that privilege. Their hezbollah outreach program counts on them to be shia, because ethnically they are arabs not persians, that applies to their own province as well especially mazandaran bordering the arab lands. Usually, in me, ethnicity and religious belief go hand in hand, there are outliers that exist but not great players who can field many proponents.

This leads to a what-if scenario for indo-iranain relationship, iran as of now has some call on the indian shia population and their impact is limited to a nuisance factor, some iranians view "mughal" india as an extension of their own fief and are quite eager to reclaim lost lands. Pakis are co-opted, just look at how many "top" pakis are married to iranians. They are on a retainer basis to needle all powers that want in on the great game.

If iran were to claim itself to be secular, would it also leave oic and all the various other mullah organizations, it would surely not leave its position on kashmir.

Haresh
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Haresh » 12 Jul 2018 18:04

ricky_v wrote:zog empire machinations
I assume this is a reference to Israel.

The Iranians I have spoken to regard the Jewish people and Israel as friendly, secular Iranians do, they are aware of their ancient civilisational history & links with the Jewish people.
The resistance to the mullahs is not just economic in nature, the one sure way to put people off religion is to let them have it. They have had it for 45 yrs.
They have a very large unemployed youth population, these people, especially in the urban areas are smart and tech savvy enough to know that their problems are caused by the theocracy and that it has to go.

Sure the Israeli's may be exploiting it, but who wouldn't? It is better if Iran collapses from within, this will obviously negate the need for war.

ricky_v wrote:The IRGC is quite literally the entity that runs iran

True, but not everyone who joins does so because the believe in "the cause", a large proportion do so for better pay, perks, housing etc.

The counter to the IRGC is the army, from what my friend has told me they would turn on t he IRGC/govt if they had to/time was right. Officers are largely secular and anti-regime, those who are not can always be "fragged" by their own men as can IRGC officers.
Armouries are quite easy to seize if you have allies on the inside. They were seized when the revolution happened & it will probably happen again.

ricky_v wrote:Iran as of now has a higher penetration profile in the me and ca because of islam, if they abandon this vessel for an ambiguous notion of secularism, they would lose that privilege


But if the mullahs are overthrown & Iranians turn to widespread abandonment of islam, will they really care about any islamic identity?

All the iranians I have met have left islam, they have contempt for it, the arabs, pakistani's. It is regarded as a retarded belief system that has held Iran/Persia back. They are very keen to re connect with their Zorastrian past.

BUT.....who knows what will happen. If it comes to a bloodbath/civil war, (the mullahs have nowhere to go, so may fight to the last) then the west will supply arms to those who oppose the regime.

It is possible they may retain shia islam lite.

The country could be divided.

Who know's!!!!!!!!

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby wig » 16 Jul 2018 15:04

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 004440.cms

an article of how Mossad agents stole records pertaining to Iran Nuclear archive from Tehran

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Neshant » 16 Jul 2018 17:20

wig wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-in-the-dark-of-night-stole-irans-nuclear-secrets/articleshow/65004440.cms

an article of how Mossad agents stole records pertaining to Iran Nuclear archive from Tehran


I was just about to post the above.

Hard to say if it's fact or fiction however since it reads like a James Bond novel.

Frankly the idea that some countries should have nukes but not others is unsustainable for the long run.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby wig » 16 Jul 2018 18:48

I imagine the archives carried away by the Israeli agents from Iran are more than likely to display proliferation by Pak.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby yensoy » 16 Jul 2018 19:17

Haresh wrote:But if the mullahs are overthrown & Iranians turn to widespread abandonment of islam, will they really care about any islamic identity?

All the iranians I have met have left islam, they have contempt for it, the arabs, pakistani's. It is regarded as a retarded belief system that has held Iran/Persia back. They are very keen to re connect with their Zorastrian past.

BUT.....who knows what will happen. If it comes to a bloodbath/civil war, (the mullahs have nowhere to go, so may fight to the last) then the west will supply arms to those who oppose the regime.

It is possible they may retain shia islam lite.


See this is the way it has always worked, this is the playbook: Existing Despot/Royal is highly despised. A few highly educated and brilliant revolutionaries start speaking up against him, writing, get imprisoned or banished from the country. Based on relentless efforts from them, their cadres and the international community, finally the country opens up for an election. This party of young revolutionaries (Idealists) is voted to power.

Then they do something to piss off Vested Interests. Vested Interests step in, either try to assassinate or discredit the Idealists. If nothing works, they get some agency to lock them on trumped up charges. Then the country goes in for a period of uncertainty, during which time Vested Interests try to cobble together a coalition of the willing.

But people are fed up with Vested Interests who earlier used to support Despot or Royal. However, the Idealist dream has died, leftism/socialism dead with it. The only path remaining which will unite and fire up people is Religion, large doses of it, strict, unforgiving adherence to religion.

Enter the Mullah as the counter power keeping Vested Interests at bay. That is the only force which provokes such passion in the population that young men and women are willing to die for the larger cause.

This playbook has been repeated ad nauseum. In Iran, Shah is the Royal, Mossadegh the Idealist. Vested Interest you know who. Saddam (for all his flaws) was the Idealist in Iraq, believe it or not he was a secularist. In all the confusion after his ouster, we have the ISIS as the only party vile enough to tough it out in smouldering mess that is Iraq (like cockroaches being the only tough ones to ride out nuclear winter). In Egypt we have something similar, except with the military keeping a lid on the Mullahs - and they have been left alone because Egypt doesn't have much oil.

So don't blame Iran's civilization for its Mullahs. The reason lies elsewhere. Mullahs and crazies are the only persons who can survive in leadership positions in that environment.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Singha » 19 Jul 2018 08:55

More
Asiatic Cheetah, Her Four Cubs Spotted in Iranian National Park

A female Asiatic cheetah and her four cubs were recently observed by the National park rangers in the protected area of Touran Wildlife Refuge in Iran’s Semnan province

http://yon.ir/dxzJ0
Image

Neshant
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Postby Neshant » 19 Jul 2018 09:32

Singha wrote:Asiatic Cheetah, Her Four Cubs Spotted in Iranian National Park


Sadly Iran declined India's request to import a couple of Asiatic cheetahs to expand their population in India.

Once the Asiatic cheetah roamed India.

Did not want to import African cheetahs as that would be introducing an alien species too far removed from the sub-continent.

At least we still have the Asiatic lion, tiger and leopard - but for how long.


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