Attack on Israeli diplomat pressures India to curtail Iran ties
By Lisa Curtis
Washington - An Israeli diplomatic vehicle was attacked today in New Delhi, injuring four, including the wife of an Israeli defense representative working at the Embassy. The perpetrator reportedly used the same method of attack -- detonating an explosive device that had been attached magnetically to the vehicle -- that was used to assassinate an Iranian nuclear scientist in Tehran last month.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly blamed Iran for the attack, which raises the question of whether Israeli officials will increase pressure on India to curtail its ties with Iran. Despite toughening international sanctions against Iran for its continued pursuit of nuclear weapons, New Delhi is increasing oil imports from Iran and announced last week its plans to send a large trade delegation there.
The Indo-Israeli relationship has blossomed in recent years, mainly in the fields of defense trade and intelligence sharing. Israel has thus far avoided publicly questioning New Delhi over its ties with Tehran, even as U.S. Congressional Members voiced numerous concerns about Iranian-Indian defense contacts, particularly during the height of the U.S.-India civil nuclear negotiations.
India relies on Iran for 12 - 15 percent of its oil needs and uses the Iranian port at Chahbahar to move its goods into Afghanistan, since Pakistan does not allow India to transit its territory. India and Iran worked closely in Afghanistan to counter the Taliban when it ruled Afghanistan from 1996 - 2001, and India likely calculates that it will need to reinstitute similar cooperation to protect its interests in the region when the U.S. withdraws its forces.
India has worked hard to try to balance its burgeoning strategic partnership with the U.S. with its traditionally close relations with Iran. India has voted against Iran in three crucial votes at International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meetings over the past six years. It also stopped negotiations over an Iran-Pakistan-India energy pipeline under pressure from the U.S.
More recently, however, India has been reluctant to reduce trade ties to Iran and appears to be trying to recoup some of the ground it lost in its diplomatic relations with Iran over the last several years. Indeed, New Delhi increased its imports of Iranian oil from December to January by over 37 percent. India also is negotiating barter-type oil arrangements with Iran to skirt international sanctions, including using an Indian bank to provide rupee payments to Indian companies exporting goods to Iran. Iran is apparently willing to accept rupees instead of dollars for nearly half of the $11 billion worth of oil that India buys from Iran annually.
India will find it increasingly difficult to placate both Iran, on the one hand, and the U.S. and Israel, on the other. Now that Israeli diplomats have been targeted in New Delhi, it will be increasingly difficult for Indian officials to sweep under the carpet their growing trade relations with Tehran. India will have to seriously factor the costs of oil trade with Iran to its rapidly growing defense partnership with Israel. In the coming months, India and Israel are expected to sign a number of military contracts involving co-production and sophisticated Israeli technologies.
The skills of Indian strategists who seek to balance India's role as a growing global power with its need to guard against the prospect of rising regional instability will be tested in coming months as the international confrontation with Iran intensifies.
While the U.S. must continue to press India to stay in step with the international sanctions regime against Iran, U.S. officials should also be more sensitive to India's concerns about Afghanistan. U.S. officials should reassure their Indian counterparts that Washington will remain engaged with Afghanistan diplomatically, financially, and even militarily to some degree, long after 2014 when the U.S. combat mission is set to expire. Washington should also quell any suspicions that it is getting ready to strike a deal with the Taliban that would embolden extremists in the region and sacrifice the hard-won social gains made over the last decade.
Lisa Curtis is Senior Research Fellow for South Asia in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.
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Earlier in the day, a bomb found attached to a car of the Israeli embassy in Tbilisi, Georgia, was neutralized without incident, according to Israeli officials.
No one took responsibility for the two events and Netanyahu did not say what evidence Israel had against Iran. The two countries are sworn enemies, with Iran accusing Israel of waging a shadow war against its “peaceful” nuclear program—killing a handful of Iranian scientists in recent years and conducting other clandestine attacks. Iranian leaders have sworn to avenge the death of the scientists.
Still, New Delhi would seem to be an unlikely venue for an Iranian attack. Almost alone among oil importers, India has defied international pressure to join an embargo against Iran aimed at forcing the regime to give up its uranium enrichment.
Netanyahu, speaking to supporters of his Likud party shortly after the blast, said Iran “and its proxy, Hezbollah” had been trying for months to hit Israeli targets. “Iran is behind these attacks; it is the largest exporter of terrorism in the world,” he said.
Striking a more menacing tone, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said, “We don’t intend to let this pass idly.”
An intriguing facet of the New Delhi attack was the way the modus operandi—a motorcyclist affixing the bomb to a car and speeding away—mimicked precisely the method used to kill several of the Iranian scientists. Israeli analysts said it amounted to a message from Iran that it too could carry out daring pinpoint strikes far from its borders.
Other Israeli observers said Hezbollah was the more likely culprit, possibly in coordination with Tehran. The Lebanese militia is widely believed to be financed and trained by Iran. And it has its own scores to settle with Israel. This week, the group marked four years since the assassination of one of its top operatives, Imad Mughnieh, whose head was blown off by a bomb planted in the headrest of his car in Damascus. Israel’s Mossad is widely believed to have carried out the murder. On the anniversary of Mughnieh’s death every year, Israeli embassies around the world have gone on high alert.
The concern regionally is that these cumulative strikes and reprisals could escalate into a full-fledged war. For months now, Washington has been worried that Israel might be planning a broad assault on Iran’s nuclear installations, possibly in the spring.
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The two places where the attack took place are India and Georgia.
About Iran-Georgia relations from 2010 in Wiki:
The beginning of 2010 saw increasing cooperation between the two countries. Agents from Iran's foreign ministry visited Tbilisi in May 2010 to discuss Iranian investment in the construction of a hydroelectric plant as well as Iran's intentions to import electricity from the country.[2] The meeting lead to president Mikheil Saakashvili inviting his Iranian counterpart Mahmood Ahmadinejad to Tbilisi.[2]
In late May 2010 Iranian ambassador Majid Samadzade Saber announced that Iran and Georgia intend to lift visa restrictions for travel between the countries.[3] According to the Iranian Ambassador, Iran and Georgia are holding talks on opening an Iranian consulate in Batumi.[3] The announcement was scheduled during Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki's visit to Tbilisi scheduled later in the month.
So, Iran's relationship with Georgia was getting better. Iran and Georgia have historical ties.
Now, about India-Iran relationship:
New Delhi is increasing oil imports from Iran and announced last week its plans to send a large trade delegation there. India has voted against Iran in three crucial votes at International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meetings over the past six years. India has been reluctant to reduce trade ties to Iran and appears to be trying to recoup some of the ground it lost in its diplomatic relations with Iran over the last several years. Indeed, New Delhi increased its imports of Iranian oil from December to January by over 37 percent. India also is negotiating barter-type oil arrangements with Iran to skirt international sanctions, including using an Indian bank to provide rupee payments to Indian companies exporting goods to Iran. Iran is apparently willing to accept rupees instead of dollars for nearly half of the $11 billion worth of oil that India buys from Iran annually.
So, India is one of the few 'friends' of Iran.
The circumstance:
There is growing efforts to put complete embargo on Iran. And India has defied this embargo, so far. And India has gone out of its way to pay for the Oil imports from Iran.
There seems to be a plan to strike Iranian installations if coming months. The strikes may come from Israel backed by international powers(US, UK,...etc).
Modus Operandi:
The modus operandi is same as the modus operandi in killing the nuclear scientists of Iran, which was allegedly carried out by Mossad. So, the modus operandi of this particular attack was similar to the modus operandi of Mossad.
Reaction:
Israel PM blamed Iran and Hezbollah shortly after the attack but did not provide any evidence. His tone was menacing and he warned of consequences.
Conclusion:
Iran would have to be ultra-stupid to carry out attacks in India and Georgia which would make it very difficult for India or Georgia to stick around with Iran. The motive of Iran is not clear in carrying out this attack. If the motive was vengeance for killing their scientists(and stopping their nuclear program), then the attack was certainly very small(because it would have no deterrent effect). And the location(India) does not add up.
It seems to me that the motive of this attack was to implicate Iran and use it as an excuse to force India and Georgia to snap their ties with Iran. Further, to use this as an excuse to justify any future strikes on Iran.
Iran seems to be heading the same path as Libya and Iraq.
without any broof.