India-Australia News and Discussion

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ldev
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by ldev »

yensoy wrote:Is there an opportunity for us to pick up the barracudas on the cheap, or are they too compromised/don't fit into our plans etc?
The Barracuda based subs being built for Australia (now cancelled Attack class) are about 2.5 x bigger displacement than the Kalvari class, much longer range and hugely expensive. There is no way that France will/can sell it at anywhere near the price that India will want/can afford. And beyond a certain price point it is better to go for nuclear propulsion as India is doing with it's planned 6x SSNs and now Australia is following in the same direction.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

yensoy wrote:Is there an opportunity for us to pick up the barracudas on the cheap, or are they too compromised/don't fit into our plans etc?
No, not with the French way of doing business.

Though this does give us an opportunity to work with the Americans on propulsion technology for our next generation submarines.

Let's see what happens.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/1 ... ing-511877
Biden announces joint deal with U.K. and Australia to counter China
The new allies' agreement will include cooperation on nuclear-powered subs, AI and cutting-edge defense tech.
ALEXANDER WARD and PAUL MCLEARY, 09/15/2021

President Joe Biden just announced a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies — including the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines — in a thinly veiled bid to counter China. The trio, now known by the acronym AUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, quantum, underwater systems, and long-range strike capabilities.
Biden, joined virtually by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Wednesday afternoon, detailed the reasons for the trilateral effort. “This is about investing in our greatest source of strength, our alliances and updating them to better meet the threats of today and tomorrow,” Biden said from the White House in between two monitors showing the other world leaders. “AUKUS — it sounds strange, all these acronyms, but it's a good one.” “We must now take our partnership to a new level,” said Morrison. “We're adding a new chapter in our friendship,” Johnson added.
All three countries will work over the next 18 months to figure out how best to deliver the technology, which the U.S. traditionally has only shared with the U.K., the official said. U.S. officials and experts noted that Australia currently doesn’t have the requisite fissile material to run a nuclear-powered submarine, meaning the next year and a half of negotiations will likely feature nuclear-material transfer discussions.
Washington and Canberra signed a gold-standard “123 agreement” in 2010 in which Australia promised not to enrich or reprocess nuclear material sent to it by the U.S.
Australia doesn’t seek a nuclear weapon, Morrison and Biden emphasized. Still, a senior U.S. administration official previewing the remarks Wednesday morning said of the nuclear-powered submarines that “this technology is extremely sensitive. This is frankly an exception to our policy in many respects. I do not anticipate that this will be undertaken in other circumstances going forward.”
There’s nothing explicitly about China in the three-way deal, but two U.S. officials noted that the subtext of the announcement is that this is another move by Western allies to push back on China’s rise in the military and technology arenas.
.....
Canberra will abandon a $90 billion submarine deal with France and will instead acquire American-made nuclear-powered submarines, with help from the U.K. The French deal had long been in trouble, with the Naval Group, the French shipbuilder tasked with constructing the 12 submarines, and the Australian government sparring over design changes and cost increases over the past several years.
Neither Naval Group nor the French government has commented on the change in direction. A new class of nuclear-powered submarines would give Washington and its allies in the Pacific a powerful new tool to attempt to contain Chinese military expansion, and would follow on the current deployment of a British aircraft carrier to the region, and recent transits by French and German warships to the South China Sea.
.....
Gautam
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by Chinmay »

The current discussions are about the RAN getting either the Virginias or the Astute. Either way, it is a good deal financially for them. However, the earlier French deal included TOT to Aussie shipyards, which has been put into question. The other big problem is the lack of nuclear know-how in Australia, given that they've never had a nuclear power plant. This new Aus-US-Uk partnership also means non-goras (SoKo, Japan, Saudis?) could demand nuclear subs from Khan, and if they decline, from anyone else willing to sell...
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by pushkar.bhat »

This new Aus-US-Uk partnership also means non-goras (SoKo, Japan, Saudis?) could demand nuclear subs from Khan, and if they decline, from anyone else willing to sell...
The Japanese have the technical capability of creating a power plant for a nuclear propulsion based submarine. The roadblock there is their pacifist stance. SoKo and Saudi's - Well I doubt.. they will get anything even if they go on a shopping expedition. Remember, somethings you can never buy for everything else there is a MASTERCARD. :D
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by anupmisra »

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/1 ... ing-511877
Biden announces joint deal with U.K. and Australia to counter China


Boris and Joe with the "fellow down under" gaffe.

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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by hnair »

This announcement is surprising and yet it is not.

It is just a confirmation that the US&Co sees this as a Han VS Anglo-Saxon fight for world domination. So the unsurprising part is that this AUKUS is the “white man still saving the world” BS that quad will never be, if it has non-goras like India or Japan providing the spear tip that can and will actually pierce the Han heart, which Australia will never be able to provide.

So the Quad will continue as just a virtue signaling device that it is a multi-national and multi-cultural thing to bring down the Han and not a centuries old world domination effort. There will be the four head of Quad states clowning around with traditional clothing etc during summit and waving at TV etc. But that is that. The Quad is a peace time pony shower, which will be blown out during war.

What is surprising is that by 2030s, the Indian Ocean will be swarming with SSN/SSGN of India (6 + 3 existing Arihant) Australia(8) and US with its numerous Virginia classes. The Chinese aircraft carriers or its own SSNs will have to deal with it.

While all this are going on, might be a good time for some countries to proof that TN design once more. Just for kicks :lol:
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by sajaym »

Gora sahabs have rightly concluded that India and Japan can be quickly overwhelmed by saturated missile attacks & two front wars and also paralysed by domestic politics. They will now use AUKUS to do what they can never do in India or Japan -- make new airbases, ports, missile silos. On the map, just look at the size comparison between China and Australia, nearly identical. Chinkis will never be able to overwhelm the Aussies -- not if those patriots removed from Saudis plus more, are put up in Australia. Khan Sahab is probably attempting to do a reverse Cuba on the Chinkis. Basing nuke missiles, or even nuke armed aircraft on Australia will be like holding a gun to the Chinkis/ Noko's head. Expect AUKUS to turn Australia into a fortress. Australia is Khan chacha's new 'strategic depth'.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by m_saini »

^ Slightly OT but I wouldn't count on US nuke missiles being based in Australia

Morrison: Australia will not host U.S. missiles
Morrison addressed questions about the possible deployment of U.S. missiles in Australia after newly appointed U.S. defense secretary Mark Esper said he would like to see deployment of ground-based missiles to Asia.

"It's not been asked of us, not being considered, not been put to us," Morrison said. "I think I can rule a line under that," Morrison said.
Also most of Aussie navy bases are down heavy, meaning far away from SCS. Morover passing through Indonesia isn't quite easy to say the least.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by kit »

sajaym wrote:. Expect AUKUS to turn Australia into a fortress. Australia is Khan chacha's new 'strategic depth'.

No, Dont think so., Even assuming 5 to 6 nuclear powered conventionally armed subs are in no way destabilising. But nuclear subs with nuclear missiles are. Thats what India has. No other country.
Indias power capabilities are far and beyond any other power can bear to, except the US and China, and maybe Russia
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by kit »

anupmisra wrote: Boris and Joe with the "fellow down under" gaffe.
Did Joey forget Morrison's name :rotfl:
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by Lisa »

kit wrote: No, Dont think so., Even assuming 5 to 6 nuclear powered conventionally armed subs are in no way destabilising. But nuclear subs with nuclear missiles are. Thats what India has. No other country.
Indias power capabilities are far and beyond any other power can bear to, except the US and China, and maybe Russia
Personally, I do not for ONE moment believe that these subs will be conventionally armed. The Australians are free to tell the public what they want. The chinese screams are correctly placed. They know exactly how this is going to pan out and furthermore how this model WILL be transposed on Japan. Let alone sending fleets far away, the chinese will be left struggling to secure their home waters.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by kit »

Well then the americans could just deploy nuclear tipped cruise missiles in Japanese and Aussie navies ! ( The Tomahawks are likely to be compatible with their current sub lineup)., besides the bases in okinawa and Diego garcia are hosting nukes , whats the big difference ? ..Even assuming SK,Japan and Au getting nuke subs plus nuke weapons will amount to fraction of what unkle currently deploys

But what this process involves is to prevent China from walking all over the neighbourhood. , at least where the whites are involved. Guess its hard for them to digest.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by Rakesh »

hnair wrote:This announcement is surprising and yet it is not.....
Great post. In addition to everything you have said, after the Afghanistan debacle....this is also a great morale booster for American allies (and for America herself) who felt that American influence took a big hit. Now expect all the Carnegie Endowment types to come out in vociferous support of this. They were eerily silent after the America's humiliating exit from Afghanistan.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by V_Raman »

I somehow feel that all this is to eventually handle India when it would have risen with 10T GDP and a decent MIC by 2050. World is realigning for that.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by titash »

V_Raman wrote:I somehow feel that all this is to eventually control India when it would have risen with 10T GDP and a decent MIC by 2050. World is realigning for that.
V-Raman ji,
You are quite correct in your assessment. The same thoughts were in my mind yesterday

But “Control India” is a very strong phrase. That ship has sailed along with the coolie mindset. The average educated Indian now believes in himself and his manifest destiny. To be fair…25 years of outsourcing and working closely with the average white professional has brought about a sense of “we are as good as them” in the average Indian. Rising incomes, foreign trips, nuclear weapons, etc have all helped

But the deep state looks decades into the future. Yes, the Chinese threat will pass, and the nuclear subs will assure the Aussies that the upstart Indians won’t behave like a second China in 25 years time

As the US population browns, the special Anglo-Anglo relationship will become less relevant in 50 years time. The US may eventually withdraw into isolationist politics or more deeply engage in the Hispanic Americas only. I look at the latest announcement as one of the final “special relationship” gifts
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by KL Dubey »

Peeps are over-reacting. Australia is a small and insignificant country.

This is being packaged very differently than how it really went down. Probably the French were skinning the kangaroos alive and the deal was already in trouble - so they decided to go ask USA for an alternative (or some babu in USA planted the idea). USA says, "gee, we ain't got nuthin' but nuke subs!"...so kangaroo asks "can we have those then". USA thought it would be a great way to give Xi's ObOr (Obscene Orifice) a poke....and brought in the UK to help out for such lesser projects.

Also, understand that the first submarine - if it comes to pass and isn't canceled by a future kangaroo under Chinese pressure or some other reason - will only show up in 2040.

Finally - if this is targeted at "containing" India, then we should be indeed happy to see that we have truly "arrived"...and not worry about these small fry getting some toys 20 years from now.
Last edited by KL Dubey on 17 Sep 2021 02:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by V_Raman »

I would say that the world is realigning for a Hindu India. The fear is that near India will strongly revert to Buddhism/Hinduism and India will become their natural leader - given the economic size and MIC - India can supply them with weapons as well.

This is a new overt recognition and these anti-hindutva conferences etc. are last ditch efforts to derail/delay the progress - make the diaspora/world - anti-hindu.

The best friendship India can build-up among developed countries IMO is with Japan - for the long term. Given their technology will be of immense benefit to India and we can provide mutual security along with other asian nations which will naturally start looking towards India (singapore/malaysia/indonesia/thailand).
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by KL Dubey »

^^Assuming all that is true, that should make us feel encouraged.

Perhaps the more important matter is the fallout on France and the EU, which will need to decide whether to get close to India or become a Chinese collaborator. USA is not going to save their bacon any more.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by V_Raman »

USA+AU+UK are countries most immune to IsT. UK I am not sure - but I think they can put a lid on it if needed and the populace has switched to conservatives for the foreseeable future there.

EU is the most at risk from IsT - they seem too far down a no-return path. I agree on your assessment there DubeyJi - they have a choice to make. One choice is to make peace with Russia and rally around a new EU - become a new pole. France - IMO will always have a India bent. Other countries might be consumed by their own hubris here and might wait too long till its too late.

I think India at this point is very unpredictable on what kind of a power it will be as it rises to 10T GDP and Domestic MIC. That is a problem.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by chetak »

KL Dubey wrote:Peeps are over-reacting. Australia is a small and insignificant country.

This is being packaged very differently than how it really went down. Probably the French were skinning the kangaroos alive and the deal was already in trouble - so they decided to go ask USA for an alternative (or some babu in USA planted the idea). USA says, "gee, we ain't got nuthin' but nuke subs!"...so kangaroo asks "can we have those then". USA thought it would be a great way to give Xi's ObOr (Obscene Orifice) a poke....and brought in the UK to help out for such lesser projects.

Also, understand that the first submarine - if it comes to pass and isn't canceled by a future kangaroo under Chinese pressure or some other reason - will only show up in 2040.

Finally - if this is targeted at "containing" India, then we should be indeed happy to see that we have truly "arrived"...and not worry about these small fry getting some toys 20 years from now.
Wasn't this the exact thinking with respect to SL, nepal, beediland and maldives and now we are being hard pressed to beat back the pakis, hans and desert cult kingdoms

between now and 2040(?) is when they will turn the dumb aussies into a viable nuke state, complete with infrastructure, MIC, and skilled + educated personnel

In all the decades past, the racist aussies haven't exactly covered themselves in glory trying to befriend India. They left the QUAD after trying to sabotage it and then they came back in under us pressure.

IMHO, the aukus nuke discussions long predate even that aussie fiasco

Such moves rarely happen unless there have been some decades of strategic conceptualizing and gaming to study the rampantly destabilizing effect of nuclearizing in a region where the ukus presence and influence is waning and that region also contains the largest collection of oil/gas producers on the globe

The cocky, braggart aussies have moved from open racism to colonial contempt, to hostility, to wariness, to awareness, to awakening, to surprise, to incredulity and now their fear of being overwhelmed by India is plainly beginning to show.

This nuke sub deal is the culmination of secret discussions over many years and not some spur of the moment deal (as is being seen or assumed) to prevent the frogs from cheating the aussies The aukas allowed the french deal to get fleshed out, possibly making them privy to many french secrets while they themselves were working out the aukus deal

while India was lulled into somnolence with the QUAD, the aukus have been plotting at the deep state level and India may have been thrown to the wolves by the bye-den triggered events overtly involving the pakis and the taliban and perhaps covertly the cheeni too.

Doesn't speak too well of our much vaunted intelligence and analysis capabilities or our ability to keep our ears peeled to the diplomatic ground and sniff out the shifting winds as they happen.

Our thinktankis are more of the retired babooze species with comfortable and perk filled post retirement sinecures, complaining querulously about oily samosas and onion pakodas that don't understand their uncooperative, wayward bowels and their constant and unavoidable encounters with a bottle of castor oil.
Last edited by chetak on 18 Sep 2021 00:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by S_Madhukar »

Oz is still a EU gora dominated country while rest of the western world browns. So it’s a future outpost like NZ to defend against the unwashed millions come climate change etc. Although Oz is not the most hospitable and very susceptible to climate change it appeals to the Wild West freedom loving hillybillies agenda of conservatives. But now I wonder what Indonesia will make of nuke subs in its waters and they are not always on best terms with Oz
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by Mort Walker »

France recalled its ambassadors to the US and Australia.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by chetak »

Mort Walker wrote:France recalled its ambassadors to the US and Australia.
recalled its ambassadors for "consultations" ....

or are the catholics declaring war on the protestants

either way, this is a very grave decision and the holy schitt is sure to hit the rotating parts
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by Cyrano »

ROFTL Chetak !!
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by Mort Walker »

Mort Walker wrote:France recalled its ambassadors to the US and Australia.
quoted in part from WSJ to avoid getting in trouble:
WASHINGTON—France has recalled its ambassadors to Washington and Canberra in response to a new deal among the U.S., U.K. and Australia to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarine technology, the French foreign minister said.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said he had recalled the two diplomats for consultation, a decision “justified by the exceptional gravity” of the announcement this week of the trilateral pact among the three English-speaking allies.

Mr. Le Drian said the announcement constituted “unacceptable behavior between allies and partners.”

Friday’s actions further escalated tensions between the traditional allies, after Mr. Le Drian a day earlier described the submarine announcement as “a stab in the back.”

As part of the deal with the U.K. and the U.S., Australia said it would cancel a multibillion-dollar contract to purchase submarines from France. Australian Defense Minister Peter Dutton said Thursday the French nuclear-powered submarine was “not superior to that operated by the United States and the United Kingdom.”

The State Department didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by Cyrano »

The Australians may very well end up getting nothing if the US once again changes its mind like Biden changes his dentures.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by ritesh »

^ Time for India Russia France to come together and tailor-made a suitable strategic policy, provided there is a consensus on chyna.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by arshyam »

chetak wrote:Our thinktankis are more of the retired babooze species with comfortable and perk filled post retirement sinecures, complaining querulously about oily samosas and onion pakodas that don't understand their uncooperative, wayward bowels and their constant and unavoidable encounters with a bottle of castor oil.
Vintage chetak saar :rotfl: :rotfl:
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by yensoy »

This whole Aukus drama reeks of good old British cunning. Brits were able to put together a wonderful opportunity that the Americans were unable to resist. They could see that their dominion state of Aus was suffering huge financial costs due to the French deal. They could see that what the Aussies needed for credible coverage of SCS/IOR were nuclear subs. They have a great nuclear sub industry and just announced a new sub line one day after Aukus announcement. Of course they had neither the finances nor the ability to carry out the transfer without Unkil's support.

Unkil Joe is badly hurt in Afghanistan and really needed all the good publicity and show of action he could get.

What's the British motivation? Hong Kong, plain and simple. HK continued to be a British outpost, the Jardines and Swires and all the monopolies were still printing money, all sorts of legitimate and illegitimate wealth flowed out of PRC through HK from which the Brits profited handsomely, monied Hong Kongers preferred to entrust their wealth to UK institutions etc. All that has basically come to a crashing end and the Brits aren't happy about it. The Chinese next stop could be Singapore, or Australia itself which would make things even worse.

All this is good for us in the near term, at least for the next 20 years till we grow too big for this alliance, or if China collapses and they have to pick a new target. For now it's great that there is actually a functional military alliance against China even if it doesn't include us. Also it gives us a chance to work closely with France.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by kit »

Well of interest would be that I do not think the Aussies can pay for the deal unless they buy off the shelf Virginia subs from US with UK providing maintenance and support (this is where you make money :(().... That is the deal . There is no "building" subs that the Aussies crow about. Come 2035 this will be the news.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by kit »

I would again reiterate that this is all just a show by declining powers that they are not. Let's just stop discussing down under and focus on more important topics
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by chetak »

kit wrote:Well of interest would be that I do not think the Aussies can pay for the deal unless they buy off the shelf Virginia subs from US with UK providing maintenance and support (this is where you make money :(().... That is the deal . There is no "building" subs that the Aussies crow about. Come 2035 this will be the news.
the amerikis may just have got themselves some ICBM bases down under to come at the cheeni from closer distances.

The aussie subs will have ameriki standard sensors and comm devices for encrypted data links and data transfer, some of these are devices that they will not trust India with.
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by arshyam »

chetak wrote:between now and 2040(?) is when they will turn the dumb aussies into a viable nuke state, complete with infrastructure, MIC, and skilled + educated personnel
This is exactly what we are looking at. Strategic depth for the US, against us. Not China. Us.

Consider this: in the long term, India is the only viable challenger to the US (and the rest of the West) at the global stage, thanks to our open society and Hindu core which encourages creativity and scientific curiosity. The very things that the US used to its advantage in attracting talent from all over the world. India can match the US toe to toe without needing to resort to immigration given our large population. At the same time, our dharmic values have reflected in our foreign policy so that India gets listened to (forget what the BBC/NYT/WaPo crap about us). With an ascendant economy, a growing young, self-assured and "don't give a flying f*** to the gora" population, yet being a free and open society with tons of plurality even the US can only imagine, what stick would they have to beat us with? None. India is also not interested in military domination unlike China or to an extent Russia, so we can't even be painted an enemy by the West, even their own populations won't buy it. Most of them get to see how industrious and beneficial our diaspora is to their respective countries, so it would be hard to contrive some enmity. We are English speaking as well, so any propaganda will either not stick, or be countered easily. Net net, a huge economy, a rich and long history with a long list of positive contributions to humanity, a self-aware and assured young population, yet being grounded without hubris - how would anyone take on someone like this when we are developed?

While difficult, the west would definitely try something to head us off. Can't blame them, really. There are a few things they could do and are trying to do that seem to add up:
  1. Delay: slow down economic progress through support for all sorts of shady NGO types to agitate in the name of environment, etc.
  2. Disable: make the region around us unstable so we keep getting bogged down in regional issues, terrorism, etc. (propping up Taliban, the tenuous yet resilient lifeline to the pakis).
  3. Disintegrate: encourage internal divisions, foster societal turbulence through conversions, linguistic and ethnic engineering using social media behemoths, etc. so GoI is busy putting out internal fires.
  4. Prop up others: Gloss over (fre)nemy activities (suppression of Chinese culpability in Wuhan, no mention of China anywhere in the post-pandemic narrative, the "country boys with a code of honour" Taliban, look the other way when India alone is a victim of terror attacks) while labeling us fascist and whatnot (hat-tip to Rudradev-ji for catching this on an other thread).
  5. Propaganda: slowly change the narrative against us in the minds of the western population (DGH and other BS of that ilk, outright lies being peddled in media articles and school textbooks)
  6. Try to slow down military build up (get us to waste money on gold plated defensive gear with hajaar conditions) and retain some coercive capability that would prevent us from growing too assertive w.r.t. power projection (EMALS tech in carriers that would make our Navy subservient, GE engines for Tejas).
  7. Insist on military balance in the name of nukular flashpoint in Cashmere (ref $80B worth of military gear "abandoned" by the US in Afg for the Talibani marines and air force)
  8. Openly threaten sanctions for military purchases or investments thanks to some law the poor US prez is constrained to follow (S-400 and CAATSA)
  9. Try to trip us up when it comes to gaining influence while dealing with some worldwide issue - the squeezing of vaccine raw materials is only the most recent example in a long line of pharma-related interventions and lobbying.
  10. Throw some crumbs and scraps so the appearance of a friendly and strategeric convergence could be maintained (NSG membership, some tactical intel sharing, offer support during actions like Balakot, beltway bandits offering melodious sound bytes, the QUAD, etc.). Note that this posture resonates with enough Indians to make them sing along - even BRF's Indo-US thread used to have "strategic" in its title till the Khobragade incident
And when all that fails:
Develop viable military options to project power: the Gulf/Qatar/West Asia is too unstable and unpredictable, while outposts like Diego Garcia are just that. Neither of these options, with poor resupply options are useful when dealing with India - one needs a viable location with hinterland and stable supply. Enter Australia - huge landmass, largest presence on the Indian ocean (after India herself, that is), fellow white and Anglo-Saxon country, already part of the Five Eyes, and not enough population to pose a threat to anyone without a crutch, so they'd welcome US presence with open arms, lots and lots of farmland and produce, so resupply is not an issue whatsoever. Plenty of space to develop large mil facilities, and also one of the largest sources of nuclear ore - it's obvious, come to think of it. The quad was merely a diversion for us (and maybe Japan) to stay assured, while this was happening in the background.

As for the "AUKUS against China" argument: the US already has a huge presence against China right off China: Japan, Korea to start with. Both viable military staging posts with good supplies and large hinterlands. Philippines too could be looped in if they really needed to - past colonial history notwithstanding, Filipinos aren't really anti-American. Taiwan too is a useful hedge. Then there is the fully Christianized PNG that was broken up from Indonesia, but without any viable sources of income. They'd love to have an American base or two on their land. Then there is geography - the first island chain itself acts as a barrier to the Chinese, notwithstanding their island building activities and insisting on making the Indo-China sea their own lake. The second and third chains are well under the US's thumb, what more do they need against the Chinese? So propping up Australia against China is really not that useful.

Even if we were to ignore the above arguments, take a look at a map of SE Asia - Australia is really the farthest major country from China (in that region), heck, Hainan to Chennai is a good 1000km shorter than Hainan to Darwin as the crow flies. Add to that that there are no open waters between China and Australia. Indonesia and Philippines have a lot of territory in the middle, so it's not like the Aussies could sail up to Hainan without anyone noticing. Not to mention Indonesia wouldn't want an enhanced Aussie presence in their waters. Heck, it's easier to sail from Australia into Indian waters without anyone noticing - India would have to keep the entire Aussie coast under constant surveillance, as it would be impossible to detect anything in the open ocean. But even watching their coast is a tall order due to the sheer size of the Australian landmass. Contrast this to India's dealing with Chinese assets which can ingress only through a few straits due to the distances and risks involved with other routes. If we thought managing issues in SL was difficult with Chinese and other (read pro-LTTE) influence, think again - we will now have a far bigger threat to deal with, with only the open ocean to comb through.

So my reading of this is that this a long term move against us, though it would be marketed as being against China. The latter too knows it and would play along by way of vehement sound bytes and protestations - but nothing really changes for China due to this. On the contrary, we are going to have a third (maritime) front to deal with, which would be the size of China. As for those hopeful western-oriented Indians, this is yet another confirmation, as though Rajiv Malhotra's "Being Different" wasn't enough, that we never were, are, and will be, regarded as equals and friends by the west. As shiv saar said in a recent tweet, many English-educated Indians think the west would look at us as kindred spirits due to democracy, though the reality is very far from that. We are very different, and so will be regarded with hostility in the long run. Heck, if the Jews who have so much in common with western culture were systematically abused through two millenia culminating in Hitler's atrocities, on what basis do we think we'd be regarded differently? We are even more dissimilar, and look the part too! So the AUKUS move only reinforces that point - we are on our own only. As always. Might as well understand that and focus on building our own capabilities. On our own.
kit
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by kit »

Precisely. The Aukus is indeed the response of the declining Western powers to contain the future Big 2.Come 2040 it is G2.
kit
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by kit »

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/like ... -dj7z5f8bh
“That was the first contact. It was a big strategic play. He [Radakin] then came back and handed the whole thing over to [Sir Stephen] Lovegrove,” said a security source, referring to the permanent secretary at that time at the Ministry of Defence. The source compared it to a scene out of a John le Carré spy novel.

So began Operation Hookless — as it was codenamed inside No 10 — and the most closely guarded secret inside government in years. Only about ten people in Britain were privy to the details, including the prime minister, the foreign secretary and the defence secretary. Lovegrove, who was still the Ministry of Defence’s permanent secretary when handed the proposal, left the department to take on the job of national security adviser, making him even better placed to help carve out the deal of his career. John Bew, Johnson’s foreign policy adviser and the mastermind behind the integrated review that talked of a “tilt” towards the Indo-Pacific region, was also allowed into the fold. Those who were present were “read in”, meaning they had to sign a paper vowing not to let the secret details of the discussions out of the room.

By the time of the G7 summit in Cornwall in June, the plans were well under way. As the French were occupied with the unfolding so-called “sausage war” over the Brexit divorce deal, Johnson, President Biden and Scott Morrison, the Australian prime minister — referred to as “ScoMo” in No 10 — thrashed out the details of a top-secret pact that would later be known as the AUKUS defence and security alliance.

Senior figures in government have compared it to the 1958 mutual defence agreement (MDA) between President Eisenhower and Harold Macmillan, the British prime minister, and the beginning of the “special nuclear relationship” that allows the nations to exchange nuclear materials, technology and information, an agreement which continues today.

“Once you give that information you cannot get it back. You can only give it to the nations that you will be friends with for ever,” said the defence source, caveating the comment by stressing that the UK was also extremely close to the French.
KL Dubey
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by KL Dubey »

chetak wrote:This nuke sub deal is the culmination of secret discussions over many years and not some spur of the moment deal (as is being seen or assumed) to prevent the frogs from cheating the aussies The aukas allowed the french deal to get fleshed out, possibly making them privy to many french secrets while they themselves were working out the aukus deal
Nobody said it was "spur of the moment"...simply that there is no significant impact on India now or in the future. We can psyche ourselves into believing this is a big deal, if we want to continue with "minor league" thinking.

While they were apparently plotting this great strategy with UK and USA, kangaroos had already paid out $2 bn to VIP Underwear...plus a coming exit fee...sounds like the most expensive "strategic planning" ever done using the checkbook of a decidedly "chhota-mota" country.

https://www.politico.eu/article/why-aus ... -sub-deal/
KL Dubey
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by KL Dubey »

kit wrote:The Aukus is indeed the response of the declining Western powers to contain the future Big 2.Come 2040 it is G2.
Agreed with last sentence.

As for the first, if indeed this is the response to the coming G2, it bodes very well for India:

1) We have "arrived", in the eyes of "aukus".

2) If Aukus was such a wonderful strategic alliance against future G2, it is quite revealing that the plan will not yield anything substantive till 20 years...that is the time scale of this supposedly "big" deal...20 years is the crucial time for India to go from G3 to G2.

I'd say this is more like last-ditch efforts rather than "containment". By 2040 the entire indo-pacific waters will be crawling with Indian and Chinese nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed submarines.....and Australia will be well on the way to 40-50% population being Asian. At present Australia population is 30% foreign-born, and >85% of foreign-born are from Asia and Africa. UK of course will be overrun by greens by the time.
chetak
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by chetak »

KL Dubey wrote:
chetak wrote:This nuke sub deal is the culmination of secret discussions over many years and not some spur of the moment deal (as is being seen or assumed) to prevent the frogs from cheating the aussies The aukas allowed the french deal to get fleshed out, possibly making them privy to many french secrets while they themselves were working out the aukus deal
Nobody said it was "spur of the moment"...simply that there is no significant impact on India now or in the future. We can psyche ourselves into believing this is a big deal, if we want to continue with "minor league" thinking.

While they were apparently plotting this great strategy with UK and USA, kangaroos had already paid out $2 bn to VIP Underwear...plus a coming exit fee...sounds like the most expensive "strategic planning" ever done using the checkbook of a decidedly "chhota-mota" country.

https://www.politico.eu/article/why-aus ... -sub-deal/
I understand, KL Dubey ji.

But when the frogs break out their best wines, they expect more than just the mere $2 bn to change hands.

they are more worried/upset at being kept out of the alliance and more because they have been upstaged by those they have long considered their cultural and intellectual inferiors. This will mostly be seen in europe as a WASP (white anglo saxon protestant) deal, the bane, and a long standing fear that forms the foundation of all good european conspiracy theories. Besides, the frogs also have assets and aspirations of their own in this region. They have just been sidelined very comprehensively by aukus

By now, the aukus would have revealed a few cards to the frogs to calm them down and to stop them from speaking out, especially to India

and unless the europeans see english monsters under their beds, wo chain ki neend nahi aayega.... There is a "See, I told you, these guys can't be trusted" deja vu moment that has been an established part of europe's cultural and strategic lexicon for centuries now.

but then again, these aukus agreements are decades long commitments that would have been gamed out and the risk universe comprehensively mapped out.

India hasn't really said anything till now and she is the rock band that keeps this regional disco lively because she is an inherent part of the narrative and has a stake like no other. Her objectives are mission critical and there are no fall back options available.

Modi will not be ecstatic at being thrown under the taliban paki bus in afghanistan by bye-den and then attending a QUAD meeting at the whitehouse where bye-den is all senile smiles while pushing some ameriki made fighter aircraft or maritime helo deal during the tea and samosas break.

If anyone brings up the S-400 deal and the imminent deliveries from putin, Modi will simply swat it away. This is a new ball game with new rules

Unfortunately, for India, her strategic imperatives are existential in nature and as she had done in the past, she may well choose to plough the lonely furrow but with a french and russian stocked arsenal.

India, while she may not be the biggest or the baddest, she is now very firmly in the big boy leagues.

for the amerikis, japs and the aussies, the QUAD is just like the chicken and pig story.
Question: In a bacon-and-egg breakfast, what's the difference between the Chicken and the Pig?
Answer: The Chicken is involved, but the Pig is committed!


The amerikis, japs and the aussies are just "involved"; whereas India is the only one that is well and truly "committed". After all, the cheeni are playing in our backyard.

Worst case, the the amerikis, japs, and the aussies can take their bat and ball and go home. We have to stay here onlee.

If anything, it is the Agni series that has given India the overarching strategic heft in the region, and Modi protecting India is the dreaded black swan event, an independent minded, self confident, unpredictable, and decisive entity that no one in the region or even in aukas, europe, and the middle east can bamboozle or even have the nerves to deal with, as the cheeni will doubtless certify.

It's another matter that every country deserves a "committed" PM like Modi, but very few, if any, actually have someone like him.

the Agni series certainly scares the piss out of xi and his planners
ramana
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Re: India-Australia News and Discussion

Post by ramana »

Chetak and Arshyam, agree with you. This AUKUS is a balance of power play by declining Anglo-Saxons.
Basically #1 stepped aside to let #2 and #3 jostle.
This way they think can avoid the Thyucidides trap.

But this is wrong lesson of history.
History will wreak bigger havoc on those who shirk their assigned role.
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