India-Myanmar news and discussion

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ramana
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Re: India-Myanmar news and discussion

Postby ramana » 08 Sep 2017 01:46

For India, Myanmar territorial integrity is a supreme national interest.
Break up Not happening.

Even Suu Kyii coming back to power is via Indian interlocution with the military not Western NGOs

JE Menon
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Re: India-Myanmar news and discussion

Postby JE Menon » 09 Sep 2017 23:22

The position taken on Myanmar, combined with the PMs visit, will become a positive turning point in our relationship.

There is no question that there is a Pakistani role in Rakhine, and it may be on behalf of the lizard - which is anxious about Myanmar's turn towards normalcy, and therefore declining dependence.

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Re: India-Myanmar news and discussion

Postby Karthik S » 09 Sep 2017 23:30

Gifting couple of LCH will send clear message to everyone.

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Re: India-Myanmar news and discussion

Postby abhik » 10 Sep 2017 02:08

Karthik S wrote:Gifting couple of LCH will send clear message to everyone.

IIRC a few years ago we tried to export the ALH to them but the French (who make the engine) blocked the deal. Although we could buy them Russian weapons like we are doing for BD :x

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Re: India-Myanmar news and discussion

Postby periaswamy » 06 Nov 2017 22:30

Suu Kyi to attend Asian forums

It is great to see that Asian countries are showing the EU/US/WestAsianArabs the middle finger and refusing to sanction Myanmar. That's the way to go.

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Re: India-Myanmar news and discussion

Postby periaswamy » 13 Nov 2017 21:29


periaswamy
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Re: India-Myanmar news and discussion

Postby periaswamy » 18 Nov 2017 03:24

lame-brained justification for worsening relations with Myanmar

My comments:

Realists can dismiss all this as the domestic affairs of another country,of little import to international relations. However, at least since the Ne Win regime, Myanmar’s governments have rarely perceived any congruence of interests with India.


A round about way to try and justify Nehruvian moralizing as foreign policy -- realism dictates that Myanmar's internal affairs are none of India's business is because making it India's business would require sidelining more important concerns for India, such as defending it borders and boundaries. India can sit around and do the old Nehruvian nonsense of preaching about human rights to Myanmar, and then face the consequences of a Myanmar that is not receptive to India's border security concerns that arise down the line.
Yes, since the late 1990s, the Myanmarese army, the tatmadaw, has cooperated with Indian security forces to act against insurgents. That should beg the question of why they were and are in Myanmarese territory in the first place.


Clearly, the Myanmar regime had no skin in the game in keeping anti-India militant groups out of their territory at that time -- India's moves to normalize relations with Myanmar has changed that situation to one where Myanmar govt. has something to lose if they do not cooperate with India.
None of this implies that *worsening relations with Myanmar* (as recommended by this joker) will (a) have no consequences on Border security (b) still have a cooperative myanmar regime.

Moreover, through the last couple of decades the junta dabbled with sheltering fugitive Pakistani nuclear scientists, running drugs and arms smuggling rackets, and playing host to Chinese listening posts.


Drug running and arms smuggling in myanmar have been the norm for decades -- what does that have to do with India's relations with myanmar, unless such actions are a direct security threat to India?

For the past three decades, New Delhi’s appeasement of Myanmar in order to promote our interests – be it Look East, be it counter-insurgency, be it energy, be it balancing China – has produced lacklustre results.


Myanmar's cooperation in counter-insurgency has gotten results that are quite obvious to everyone but this takshashila imbecile. Furthermore, if we look at the details of India's "look east" policy, the Kaladan port project to improve connectivity of the NE via the Bay of Bengal to overcome the chicken's neck bottleneck have inherent value, it helps us not get too dependent on Bangladesh for moving goods to the north east (and as a corollary, working with Bangladesh makes us not too dependent on Myanmar).


It is possible to list a number of “under progress” projects in connectivity, energy and so on. But there is very little that counts as success. India’s foreign policy establishment has allowed itself to be played by the regime, between the carrots the latter dangles and FOLO, the fear of losing out (to China).


India's interactions with myanmar have their own value and very little to do with what China's relations to Myanmar -- in fact, Myanmar has been working with both India and china on local projects of mutual interest. The very fact that India and Myanmar have points of engagement and projects of mutual interest is a net positive. One would have to be a Nehruvian cretin to pretend that the lack of success is a good reason to turn a net positive to a net negative based on some notion of being the moral champion for some group of people in Myanmar.

The truth is Myanmar is practically irrelevant to our Look East policy. Sea and air links are adequate, and easily expandable, to connect India to Southeast Asian markets.


When all else fails, just reach into the nearest hole and pull out a claim that "Myanmar is irrelevant" and it shall become reality. Currently, there is no connectivity from the rest of India to the North East that will connect the North east to Indian markets, forget about "southeast asian markets", which is where Myanmar comes into play. In order of priority, it is important to integrate the North East to India's economy and depart from the policy of benign neglect as practised the babucracy from Nehruvian times.

As far as cooperation in fighting insurgents goes, the Myanmarese are doing it because and only to the extent it is in their interests.


Yes, and only a moron would expect any different. The whole point of aligning interests is so that Myanmar finds it in their own interests to contribute in a positive way to India's security.

Even here, Myanmar’s role is often overstated, papering over the rampant collusion between the tatmadaw and various armed groups operating along the India-Myanmar border.


Utter disinformation. I would like to see this joker give a list of exactly what these groups are where they have been colluding against India's interest in the North East.

Indeed, despite its bipolar domestic politics where one party is pro-India and the other isn’t, Bangladesh is already far more important to India than Myanmar could ever be. As I argued in last month’s column, New Delhi should back Bangladesh over the Rohingya issue and rally international support for Dhaka’s efforts.


India's relationship between Myanmar and Dhaka is not a zero sum game -- there is absolutely no reason to sacrifice relations with one neighbour in the interest of the other. The Rohingya issue is a bilateral issue between Bangladesh and Myanmar -- India is already providing material support to Bangladesh for the Rohingyas. "Rallying international support" for what is essentially a bilateral matter between the two would require spending a lot of political capital that comes with a cost for India's neighbourhood security.

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Re: India-Myanmar news and discussion

Postby shuuro » 11 May 2018 13:58

http://www.rediff.com/news/special/myanmar-pushes-into-indian-territory-occupies-manipur-villages/20180511.htm

Myanmar pushes into Indian territory, occupies Manipur villages

Myanmarese soldiers along with local villagers reached the site, pulled down the pillar at its original site and erected it inside N Satsang village itself.

"There was a very old tree in the middle of the zero line," Maring said. "On their side, the border demarcation was inscribed in the Myanmerese language and in our side, it was written in English to mark the zero line of the international border."

"Myanmarese army personnel first got the tree cut, then burnt it to the roots and wiped out all its traces. The intention was very clear -- to wipe out any trace of demarcation. We urged them not to destroy the proof," Maring said. "But they warned us to leave as the area belongs to Myanmar."

According to Leinai, the chairman of Choktong village, "Border disputes are not new. But this time they (the Myanamar army) are more aggressive and forcibly took over our land."

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India-Myanmar news and discussion

Postby Peregrine » 11 May 2018 15:23

X Posted on the Terroristan, Analyzing CPEC and Sri Lanka - News and Discussion Threads

After all other cases World Wide in General and Hambantota along with Gwadar in Particular Kyaukpyu is the latest victim - Ab Tera Kya Hoga Terroristaniya?

The fishing port that may become a $10 billion Chinese debt bomb

The town of Kyaukpyu, nestled around a small fishing port on the Bay of Bengal, has the air of a place expecting to get rich soon.

In the seaside market, stalls of seafood unloaded from wooden fishing boats floating in the rubbish-strewn harbor have been joined by stacks of Chinese-made toys and smartphones. Nearby, cattle graze between building sites as high-rise offices and hotels replace weather-stained bungalows. Fine-dining rooftop restaurants and a golf course underline the sense of transition.

Much of the development, and a jump in land prices, are anticipating a gigantic prize for this remote Myanmar town of 50,000 people: $10 billion to build a deep-sea port and industrial zone, financed by China. The investment plan -- seven times the cost of Chinese-built ports in Sri Lanka and Cameroon -- has put Kyaukpyu at the center of a debate in Myanmar and across Asia as to who really benefits from China’s grand Belt and Road strategy.

“The real danger of the port is that its extreme expense could lead the Myanmar government to take out an unsustainable level of debt,” said Greg Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “That, in combination with other current and future projects in Myanmar, could in the coming years lead to a debt trap.”

Those concerns have stalled development since the previous military government chose China’s CITIC Group to build the port three years ago. CITIC, China’s first state-owned investment corporation, has proposed taking a 70 percent stake in the project, with the remainder split between the Myanmar government and a consortium of local firms. The Chinese company would run the zone for up to 75 years and would finance Myanmar’s stake.

“We keep hearing it will be built since 2015, but nothing has happened so far,” said Shwe Shwe Maung, 34, the head of KaBalan, a village of 460 households in the area marked for the economic zone. “We don’t know exactly what the impact will be, but we’re all hoping that it will bring jobs.”

Some senior government officials are concerned that a nation with a smaller economy than the Dominican Republic may struggle to service and repay the billions of dollars Myanmar would need to borrow for the project.

“The amount of interest is quite substantial, and not like the loans we got from the Japanese government -- the loans from China are much more expensive,” said Soe Win, a member of the ruling National League for Democracy’s central economic committee and a candidate to become Myanmar’s next central bank governor. He declined to give details of the proposed loan.

The Japan International Cooperation Agency is helping finance a $3.28 billion economic zone at Thilawa port, south of Yangon. The Thilawa development has raised further questions about Myanmar’s need for such a large facility in Kyaukpyu (pronounced CHOW-pew) or whether it would simply be a conduit for China, run by Chinese companies.

“Is this deep-sea port being made to benefit Myanmar?” said Ken Tun, founder and chief executive of Myanmar’s Parami Energy, the only local firm to be short-listed for the development. “If we have a deep sea port, but it’s not controlled by Myanmar, that’s a problem.”

One major concern for some members of the government is what happened in Sri Lanka. In 2008, a joint venture with China began building a deep-water port at Hambantota. When Sri Lanka couldn’t repay the loan for the project, it ended up ceding the port to China for 99 years last year in exchange for debt relief. “China is trying to influence political events in Myanmar in many ways,” Soe Win said in an interview. “But what we are afraid of is that we will end up like Sri Lanka.”

Lessons for Leaders Eying China’s Belt-and-Road Billions

Toe Aung Myint, permanent secretary of the Myanmar Ministry of Commerce, which oversees the project management committee, rejects the suggestion that the port would entail too much debt, saying construction would happen in stages.

“Myanmar and Sri Lanka are not the same,” Aung Myint said in an interview. “Only based on the success of the first phase, we will do another phase.”

CITIC directed questions regarding the port to the Myanmar government. “We are unable to disclose information regarding the negotiation to the public,” Zhang Yue, the head of CITIC Myanmar, said in an email.

Soe Win isn’t the only one worried about the long-term plans for Kyaukpyu. Located on the eastern edge of the Bay of Bengal, the town is almost directly opposite INS Varsha, where the Indian navy will base its new fleet of nuclear submarines.

A Myanmar government official familiar with China’s plans for Kyaukpyu said military attaches from the U.S., Australia and countries in Southeast Asia have all expressed concern that China wants to build a port that has strategic as well as economic advantages.

“China needs some sort of access or staging facilities in several different places in the Indian Ocean,” said David Brewster, a senior fellow at Australia’s National Security College and an expert on India-China maritime security. “Myanmar would be a good place to have a naval base.”

Myanmar’s government may have little alternative to a Chinese loan if it wants to build the port. The political outrage sparked in the U.S. and Europe over the treatment of the Rohingya minority has left it with few allies among developed nations.

Kyaukpyu, 400 kilometers (250 miles) north-west of the capital, Yangon, is in Rakhine state, where more than 600,000 Rohingya have been driven from their homes into neighbouring Bangladesh since last August, in what the United Nations’ top human rights official has called “ethnic cleansing.” While most of the clashes happened further north, the conflict rattled investors, prompting China to send a group of diplomats to Rakhine in December.

“They wanted to learn more about the security of their investments,” said Aung Dung, 71, chairman of the Kyaukpyu branch of the NLD, who met the delegation. “The Chinese have quite a lot going on down here.”

Pipeline Links

The town already has oil and gas loading terminals, built since 2013, that feed pipelines transporting the fuel directly to Yunnan province in Western China. A rail link is planned to connect the container port.

“Kyaukpyu is definitely growing,” Yan Myo Aung, 54, chairman of Kyaukpyu branch of the Arakan National Party, whose family operates a number of local retail businesses. “We hope that the Special Economic Zone will add to that.”

Shop owner Saw Maung Nu is one of many local residents who are anticipating a windfall.

“I built this house and shop here two years ago because of the development,” said Saw, 58, a father of eight, in Thaing Shaung, a smattering of houses outside Kyaukpyu in the center of the proposed industrial zone. “I thought all the people coming to work here might need to buy things.”

He said land prices have risen from $20,000 an acre to $50,000 an acre and he’s hoping the government will pay the market rate to buy him out.

Even without the potential military benefits of Kyaukpyu, the port’s commercial advantages make it a key part of China’s maritime Belt and Road strategy.

CITIC says the terminal would have an annual capacity for 4.9 million containers, more than the current throughput of Brazil’s biggest container terminal, as well as loading oil for the pipeline. With the rail link, it would give exporters in Yunnan a short-cut to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the disputed waters in the South China Sea and the congested Straits of Malacca. I have stressed this point "many a time"

“Yunnan is very important for them, it’s landlocked,” said Soe Win. “We will be happy if they use their Kyaukpyu port as a commercial port. But if they would like to turn it into a kind of military base, then we’ll be very, very sad.”

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