Bangladesh News and Discussion

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Dilbu
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by Dilbu »

Colombo allows Pakistani frigate Taimur to dock, Dhaka says no
Sri Lanka has allowed permission to the Chinese built-Pakistani guided missile frigate PNS Taimur to make a port call at Colombo while on its way to join the Pakistan Navy in Karachi. Build by Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard in Shanghai, the warship is on its maiden voyage to Pakistan while exercising en-route with Cambodian and Malaysian navies. The ship is expected to be at Colombo port from August 12-15, 2022.

While Sri Lanka gave permission to the Pakistani guided missile frigate to make a port call at Colombo, it is understood that the ship was denied a permission to make a port call at Chattogram port by the Sheikh Hasina government from August 7-10 after making a port call at Lumut port in Malaysia.

According to diplomatic sources, India’s close ally Bangladesh denied permission to PNS Taimur as August is a month of mourning for Sheikh Hasina as her father, Sheikh Mujib-ur-Rehman also fondly called Bangabandhu, was assassinated by Pak instigated and Jamait-e-Islami inspired radical Islamist forces on August 15, 1975.
g.sarkar
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.opindia.com/2022/08/banglad ... ic-crisis/
Petrol price hike in Bangladesh triggers chaos as China woos the nation, reignites fears that Sri Lanka crisis could repeat in India’s neighborhood
The high inflation has also landed a severe blow on the country's garment industry as people are forced to prioritise essential commodities.
OpIndia Staff, 7 August, 2022

Days after hinting at an impending economic crisis, the Bangladeshi government on Friday (August 5) increased the price of petrol by 51.7% and diesel by 45.2%.
While speaking about the matter, Minister for Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid said, “Some adjustments have to be made in view of the global situation. If the situation normalises, the fuel prices will be revised accordingly….The new prices will not seem tolerable to everyone. But we had no other choice. People have to be patient.”
The country is already reeling under high inflation. Reportedly, the inflation rate in Bangladesh has been over 6% for the past 9 months, with the annual inflation rate in July reaching a high of 7.48%.
.....
Gautam
hnair
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by hnair »

A whole bunch of social media posts used to make fun of Modi govt and its prudent fuel pricing strategies while showing comparatively less prices of Sooth-assians. Kerala lefties used to gleefully show paki’s low pricing as Immy’s awesomeness and BD’s pricing as Haseena’s brilliance, compared to PM Modi.

We should tag these sino-centric crisis around the IOR with #ChinaStringOfPrunes. Why should they escape labelling on such crisis they trigger, like how they escaped getting tagged with the Wuhan virus ?
Kati
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by Kati »

V_Raman wrote:
Kati wrote:A close confidant of the PM made a private statement in the recent past: "Our country (read "administration") is surviving only because of two countries - India and Russia".
You mean bdesh PM?
Yes Saar... (sorry for this late reply).
Dilbu
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by Dilbu »

Exclusive: India's top lender asks exporters to trade with Bangladesh in rupee, taka
New Delhi, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Top lender State Bank of India has asked exporters to avoid settling deals with Bangladesh in the dollar and other major currencies as it looks to curb exposure to Dhaka's falling reserves, according to an internal document and a source. The decision not to increase exposure to the dollar and other foreign currencies in relation to Bangladesh stemmed from the current economic situation and the neighbouring nation's shortage of foreign currency, the bank said in its circular.
A source familiar with the matter said SBI did not want to increase its exposure to Bangladesh.

"We have an approximate exposure of $500 million to Bangladesh and have taken the decision not to grow it further aggressively, and maybe, even reduce it as needed, with the news surrounding the economy," added the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Bangladesh is just one of India's neighbours in financial distress.
Dilbu
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by Dilbu »

Chinese Moves Complicate India-Bangladesh Dispute Over Teesta
In the second week of October, a month after Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina returned from New Delhi without a word of assurance on the sharing of the waters of the River Teesta, the Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh, Li Jiming, visited the Teesta barrage site in the country’s Lalmonirhat district.

Li told journalists that he was hopeful that the Teesta mega project can be started “within a very short time.” Later, at another event, while stating that the project “is under serious assessment by the government agencies in Beijing,” he also said that there was some reluctance on the part of China to go ahead with the project considering the possibility of Bangladesh backing out.

“There are some sensitivities that we sensed and observed,” he said, adding, “if someone comes out and says – well this is again another case of Chinese debt trap – there (also) are some particular geopolitical sensitivities.”

Li’s statement indicates that China is putting pressure on Bangladesh to come to a decision on whether to depend on India for solving the Teesta water crisis or go with China’s proposal.
In September, before Hasina left Dhaka for New Delhi, the one question that the Bangladeshi media was most keen to ask her was whether her visit would result in any positive outcome toward solving the Teesta water issue.

“It depends on India,” she said before leaving. In Delhi, she only expressed her hope that the Teesta issue would be resolved soon.

Since her return, leading Bengali and English language media houses in Bangladesh have published innumerable reports on the Teesta water-sharing problem, mostly criticizing India for its role. Some have described it as a diplomatic failure by Hasina.
Given India’s federal structure, the government of India cannot take any decision over sharing water of transboundary rivers without taking the state concerned, West Bengal in this case, into its confidence. But the state’s Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who has been refusing to share Teesta water since her ascent to power in 2011, is set to be in power in West Bengal until 2026 at the least.
The West Bengal chief minister has on several occasions clarified her objection; she does not want to deprive the northern districts of Jalpaiguri, Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, Uttar Dinajpur, Dakshin Dinajpur, and Malda at a time when the water in Teesta has already reduced in recent years. There is not enough water in Teesta to share, she had said, offering to share water from other rivers, which Bangladesh has refused.
However, the matter has become more complicated and diplomatically sensitive since China entered the scene in 2020, offering to pull Bangladesh out of the crisis. China proposed a major dredging work to revive the river and build strong embankments and reservoirs, without India having to play any role.

The two countries have conducted joint studies but Bangladesh has been keeping the project on hold, possibly considering that India, its closest bilateral friend, would be offended and might object to China’s involvement.

However, as India is failing to promise a timeline, pressure is mounting on Hasina at home. Soon after Li’s visit, the Teesta Bachao, Nodi Bachao Sangram Samiti, a civil society group pressing for the Teesta’s revival, staged a demonstration in Rangpur, demanded that the Bangladesh government expedite the Teesta project with Chinese collaboration, and threatened to launch an agitation in November.

These developments have put the governments of both India and Bangladesh in a delicate situation, as India’s relations with Bangladesh have been most friendly when Hasina has been in power. Neither wants to offend the other. India certainly does not want Hasina out of power.

However, the Modi government in India is in no position at present to pressure Banerjee on this sensitive issue.
India neither wants to see Hasina in trouble at home from the anti-India forces in Bangladesh nor does it want to see Chinese presence just across West Bengal’s border. Sikkim is highly unlikely to agree to let Teesta flow freely and Banerjee would not accept any measure that would deprive her people in the northern districts.

The Modi government seems to have few options and will most likely have to think up “out of the box” solutions.
chetak
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by chetak »

Dilbu wrote:Chinese Moves Complicate India-Bangladesh Dispute Over Teesta
In the second week of October, a month after Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina returned from New Delhi without a word of assurance on the sharing of the waters of the River Teesta, the Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh, Li Jiming, visited the Teesta barrage site in the country’s Lalmonirhat district.

Li told journalists that he was hopeful that the Teesta mega project can be started “within a very short time.” Later, at another event, while stating that the project “is under serious assessment by the government agencies in Beijing,” he also said that there was some reluctance on the part of China to go ahead with the project considering the possibility of Bangladesh backing out.

“There are some sensitivities that we sensed and observed,” he said, adding, “if someone comes out and says – well this is again another case of Chinese debt trap – there (also) are some particular geopolitical sensitivities.”

Li’s statement indicates that China is putting pressure on Bangladesh to come to a decision on whether to depend on India for solving the Teesta water crisis or go with China’s proposal.
In September, before Hasina left Dhaka for New Delhi, the one question that the Bangladeshi media was most keen to ask her was whether her visit would result in any positive outcome toward solving the Teesta water issue.

“It depends on India,” she said before leaving. In Delhi, she only expressed her hope that the Teesta issue would be resolved soon.

Since her return, leading Bengali and English language media houses in Bangladesh have published innumerable reports on the Teesta water-sharing problem, mostly criticizing India for its role. Some have described it as a diplomatic failure by Hasina.
Given India’s federal structure, the government of India cannot take any decision over sharing water of transboundary rivers without taking the state concerned, West Bengal in this case, into its confidence. But the state’s Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who has been refusing to share Teesta water since her ascent to power in 2011, is set to be in power in West Bengal until 2026 at the least.
The West Bengal chief minister has on several occasions clarified her objection; she does not want to deprive the northern districts of Jalpaiguri, Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, Uttar Dinajpur, Dakshin Dinajpur, and Malda at a time when the water in Teesta has already reduced in recent years. There is not enough water in Teesta to share, she had said, offering to share water from other rivers, which Bangladesh has refused.
However, the matter has become more complicated and diplomatically sensitive since China entered the scene in 2020, offering to pull Bangladesh out of the crisis. China proposed a major dredging work to revive the river and build strong embankments and reservoirs, without India having to play any role.

The two countries have conducted joint studies but Bangladesh has been keeping the project on hold, possibly considering that India, its closest bilateral friend, would be offended and might object to China’s involvement.

However, as India is failing to promise a timeline, pressure is mounting on Hasina at home. Soon after Li’s visit, the Teesta Bachao, Nodi Bachao Sangram Samiti, a civil society group pressing for the Teesta’s revival, staged a demonstration in Rangpur, demanded that the Bangladesh government expedite the Teesta project with Chinese collaboration, and threatened to launch an agitation in November.

These developments have put the governments of both India and Bangladesh in a delicate situation, as India’s relations with Bangladesh have been most friendly when Hasina has been in power. Neither wants to offend the other. India certainly does not want Hasina out of power.

However, the Modi government in India is in no position at present to pressure Banerjee on this sensitive issue.
India neither wants to see Hasina in trouble at home from the anti-India forces in Bangladesh nor does it want to see Chinese presence just across West Bengal’s border. Sikkim is highly unlikely to agree to let Teesta flow freely and Banerjee would not accept any measure that would deprive her people in the northern districts.

The Modi government seems to have few options and will most likely have to think up “out of the box” solutions.

The beedis are trying the same con that the pakis did with the IWT and the partisan help from the US and via the allegedly "neutral third party" mediation from the world bank.

Neverwho, with his delusional "global leader" ambitions signed away via the IWT, >80% of the waters to the pakis. There has never been such a foolish water sharing "treaty" between upper and lower riparian states anywhere in the world, before or since the IWT was signed and that is exactly what hasina wants from India. All seem to forget that sikkim too is an interested party in the prudent management of these waters and they have to be also protected.

First and foremost, India needs to protect its supreme national interests and this idiotic gujral doctrine concept of non reciprocal agreements with India's enemies oops neighbours..... needs to be thrown out with the diplomatic garbage. hasina is playing off the cheenis against India, hoping to benefit from both, just like nepal, SL, and the maldives. Times have indeed changed for the worse.

The gujral doctrine, with neighbours such as Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Maldives and Sri Lanka, India does not seek reciprocity but offers and accommodates what it can in good faith and trust.

The cheeni will try and create a hambantota like situation in beediland by grabbing one of their ports via the usual debt trap methods and that sub narrative is what hasina is pushing in a bid to coerce India to relent on the waters. She has refused to accept extra waters from some of the other rivers where India has the political bandwidth, as well as, the waters to spare for the beedis.

With India's growing population and the increasing stresses on our own resources, we need to prioritise our interests and focus on supreme national interests, especially when dealing with vital assets like water and border control to eliminate malicious economic migration whose primary intent is rapid demographic change, especially in the border areas.

If the cheeni dig the river bed on the beedi side of the border to facilitate increased flow of water from the river or whatever, including storage, India can simple dig canals to divert this same river on our side to extract water for bengal's and sikkim's requirements before it reaches the beedis.

mamta bano wants money desperately from the center. There are so many ways to twist her arm and so many options for inducements to get her to agree.

Frankly, neither the centre nor the state can afford to be seen as weak and pliantly accommodating of the beedis. The beedis are rapidly settling in in huge numbers in the border regions of bihar, both sides of the nepal border causing huge demographic changes and and the interiors of India causing law and order issues.

There are rumours that AS may create a union territory out of some of these border districts so as to firmly control the demographic change situation which luloo's govt is hell bent on creating for electoral benefits with nitishwa meekly playing along, just as long as he gets his share of the electoral benefits.

Bihar: Ahead of Amit Shah's visit, 'UT' rumours leaves Seemanchal Muslims restive


If what hasina wants is not being done by the centre, India is starting to play hardball and hasina is being seen as a rapidly diminishing return, well past her sell by date, and not worth investing in at this stage.

She may not even win the coming elections in beediland and India may well be readying to deal with a much more kattarpanthi beedi govt which will be very hostile to Indian interests.

Her non cooperation on the much increased cross border migrations with increasing influx of jehadis into India and the frequent attacks on the local Hindu population in beediland may have been the last straw that broke the camel's back.
sanjaykumar
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by sanjaykumar »

Please look up management of the Colorado River, US/Mexico.
chetak
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by chetak »

sanjaykumar wrote:Please look up management of the Colorado River, US/Mexico.
I expected this to come up, saar. :)

but you know what I mean....

the US retains 90.9% of the colorado waters and gives mexico only 9.1% whereas, foolish neverwho made sure that India gives away 84% and keeps a measly 16% for itself and still the pakis are unhappy.


roughly, in the colorado river system, @17.5 million acre-feet of water flows through the river annually. The US keeps @15 million acre-feet of water and gives mexico @1.5 million acre-feet of water, give or take.

the annual flow of waters in the Indus system of rivers is @210 million acre-feet of water. Of this India keeps only 33 million acre-feet of water and foolishly gives away 177 million acre-feet of water to the pakis, give or take. This makes the " mighty" colorado river system quite piddly as compared to the Indus river system

Both India and the US are upper riparian states, and just see what the amerikis did in the colorado treaty and what they made India do in the IWT. India was assured privately that such generosity toward the pakis would "help" in solving cashmere in India's favour.

High time that we repudiated the IWT and renegotiated the treaty de novo and this time without any poisonous "third party mediation" which the pakis seem to want in all their disputes.
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by Vips »

Seven Rohingyas including three women arrested in Tripura.

Seven Rohingyas including three women were arrested in Tripura.

These people came from Bangladesh camps. A senior police officer who does not want to be named said, “Rohingya Muslims fled from their Bangladesh camps and recently illegally entered Tripura through the western Tripura’s Sonamura India-Bangladesh border and tried to go to Assam by a car".

“During a routine check police arrested them at Ambassa in Dhalai district on Thursday night and produced them in a local court on Friday,” a police official said.

Those arrested include Md. Ekbal Hossen, Abdul Gafur, Azim ullah, Md Jahanjir Alam, Jannat Ara, Sadiya Begam, Dilbahar Begam
Vips
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by Vips »

Why is Bangladesh driving Kuki refugees into Mizoram?

Mizoram government officials on Monday said the state is preparing for influx of more refugees from Bangladesh in the coming weeks, after the state Cabinet on November 20 gave the nod to providing food and shelter to Kuki-Chin-Mizo refugees who had crossed the international border the night before, to enter the state.

Calling them “asylum seekers”, senior Mizoram government officials said 272 members of the Bawm tribe, including women and children, had crossed the border at Lawngtlai—at the tri-junction of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar—on the night of November 18.

Explained |Chin-Kuki-Mizo refugees pour into Mizoram: What’s the new armed conflict in Bangladesh’s Chittagong Hill Tracts?
The refugee influx began after clashes broke out between the Kuki-Chin National Army, the armed wing of the Kuki-Chin National Front (KNF), and Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion, in the Bandarban region of the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), an area populated by the Bawm tribe. The refugees had fled to escape being caught in the crossfire, the officials said.

“They have now been shifted to Parva III village and put up in government schools and community halls there. Residents of neighbouring villages, civil society and the district administration have all stepped up to extend welfare to the refugees,” said a senior Mizoram official, adding, “They need food, proper shelter, healthcare and all essential amenities. We are figuring out how to ensure that they receive everything they need. We have written to the disaster management authority for assistance to manage the situation. Based on information we have, we expect there will be more asylum seekers arriving in Mizoram from Bangladesh during the coming week.

This is the second influx of refugees into Mizoram from a neighbouring country, after an earlier exodus of refugees, also of Kuki-Chin ethnicity, from Myanmar last year, in the wake of the coup by the military junta in Myanmar, and the resulting conflict between the junta and various resistance groups.

“There were at one point 30,000 Myanmarese refugees in Mizoram—but this number keeps fluctuating. When the conflict eases in Myanmar, they go back, but when it resumes, they return. These refugees have now spread out to all districts of the state, so the majority don’t live in shelters any more, but with relatives, or even by renting homes themselves. Most of them are now working in Mizoram, several of them in construction,” said an official.

But the fresh arrival of Kuki-Chin refugees—this time from Bangladesh—will pose a problem of assimilation and amenities for the state government. Politically, the ruling party of Mizoram, the Mizo National Front, supports providing shelter to refugees from both Myanmar and Bangladesh, as they belong to the same Kuki-Chin-Mizo ethnicity. Arising out of the Mizo National Famine Front (MNFF), an armed group that conducted an uprising against the Indian government between the 1960s and 1980s, including underground activities, MNFF leaders and cadres would often seek sanctuary in the Kuki-Chin dominated areas of both neighbouring countries.

“The KNF is also called the Bawm party, and they are our Bawm brothers. When many of the MNF leaders were underground for 20 years, they sought shelter in the regions and with these people. So, we will help them in whatever way we can,” said former Lok Sabha MP and MNF vice-president, Vanlalzawma.

Last year, Mizoram Chief Minister Zoramthanga wrote to Prime Minister Modi, saying India “cannot turn a blind eye” to the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Myanmar. Opposing the Centre’s order to security forces, to stop the influx of refugees from Myanmar and to deport those who had arrived, Zoramthanga had urged the Centre to give them asylum. In September this year, the CM met Home Minister Amit Shah to discuss the refugee crisis, among other things.

In the CHT, one of the remotest and poorest regions of Bangladesh, the Kuki-Chin tribes form only 60-70,000 of the 1.8 million population. An erstwhile tribal-dominated area, the demographic of the hills has changed over the years. Whereas in 1947, Bengali speakers made up barely 2 per cent of the population, they now comprise 50 per cent of the population of CHT now, say Bangladeshi analysts, adding that the change has pushed the tribal populations to the margins.

But while the CHT conflict between the Parbatya Chattagram Jana Samhati Samiti (JSS) or the United People’s Party of the Chittagong Hill Tracts—which was dominated by Chakmas, and the Bangladeshi security forces, raged through the 1970s up to 1997—when a peace agreement was signed, the emergence of the KNF is a recent phenomenon. Bangladeshi analysts say the organisation, which is fighting for autonomy, was only set up earlier this year, and has largely been dismissed by the Bangladesh government and its security forces.

Ostensibly a reaction to the dominant Chakmas of the region, who number half-a-million in the CHT, the KNF came under the spotlight last month, when the Bangladeshi Army alleged that it had provided support and training to 50 members an extremist Islamist group—the Jama’atul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya. Last month, Bangladesh’s RAB (Rapid Action Battalion) announced that it had arrested 10 militants—seven belonging to the Islamist organisation, and three of the KNF.

The KNF itself has claimed that 200-300 of its cadres have been trained by the Kachin Independence Army—an armed group operating in northern Myanmar, particularly the Kachin state, and another Myanmar based armed group—the Chin National Army. Trained and armed, the KNF is also believed to have defeated the JSS in a recent conflict, in which the JSS suffered severe losses.

The Bangladesh forces launched a month-long operation to root out the KNF from the region. In a press meet last week, the Zo Reunification Organisation (ZORO), a Mizoram-based association fighting for the re-unification of Kuki-Chin-Mizo tribes across India, Myanmar and Bangladesh, had alleged that the operations were being carried out by the Bangladesh Army with the help of the Myanmar-based Arakan Army—an armed paramilitary that controls Rakhine state in Myanmar. What makes the claim interesting is that it was Rakhine, the home of the Rohingyas, where the genocide of Myanmar’s Muslim community took place. The Rohingya refugees have since been living in refugee camps across Bangladesh. If Bangladesh wants to return these refugees to Myanmar, it would need the cooperation of the Arakan Army, which now exercises near complete control over the Rakhine state.
Vips
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by Vips »

Bangladesh on razor’s edge: Why India must wake up to the looming economic crisis and political instability to its east.

So routine are protests and violence in Bangladesh that treating the ongoing crackdown against Sheikh Hasina’s opponents as anything but election-generated noise could seem a stretch. From the latest deaths of opposition activists in police firing, and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) demanding a “caretaker” administration that could ensure electoral transparency, to an angry Hasina vowing to never let “arson terrorists” come to power — this is quintessential Bangladeshi politics. Even Western criticism, visible in a recent ambassadorial joint statement asking for free, fair, and peaceful elections, and Indian and Chinese silences, are not novel.

But the fact is that Bangladesh is at the cusp of a political shift that it has not witnessed since 2009. Hidden in this old-school, high-tension politics between two known rivals and a politicised military are unexpected signals that indicate deeper tumult.

One, public frustration with the ruling Awami League (AL) is wide and deep enough that the fear of a crackdown is dissipating. Two, the economic situation is so bad that even Hasina’s main allies are reconsidering options as sources of electoral finance shrink. Three, neither Hasina nor the BNP have answers to fix the economy or meet public expectations.

The current focus on violence around the forthcoming BNP mass rally in Dhaka overlooks the fact that the latter has held a series of rallies across the country to surprisingly huge public turnouts. That this occurred despite government attempts to limit movement by forcing public transport closures — even in traditional AL strongholds such as Khulna and Faridpur — offers reason to pause. How can the BNP, considered politically dead till recently, mobilise mass support? Because, to its own surprise, it is emerging as a broker of disparate grievances against a government disconnected from the people.

Sanjib Baruah writes |Bangladesh and India: Breaking the impasse on the Teesta water-sharing talks
After all, Bangladesh’s macroeconomic improvements, considerably important and celebrated the world over, don’t automatically translate into redistribution of wealth and institutional integrity. It was always the litany of microeconomic problems and daily political coercion meted out by a corrupt party and state officials that were Hasina’s Achilles’ Heel. This is why people took long boat rides or walked for hours in the face of government-imposed bus and train closures to reach the Khulna rally, which could retrospectively mark a turning point.

If these events have emboldened the opposition, they have generated sharp outbursts from Hasina, promising more police crackdowns and media intimidation. This is what makes the forthcoming Dhaka-rally dangerous: Hasina risks losing both ways. If she uses force to break the protests, she’ll push more people in the opposition’s direction. But if she doesn’t interrupt these protests, it could diminish Hasina’s strongperson image and further the opposition’s political momentum. It’s a classic trap, and the questions for Hasina and her allies are: Can face be saved without alienating people further? If not, should the government become more aggressive?

Also Read |India has big role in political stability of Bangladesh: Bangladesh minister
The answers lie in Bangladesh’s political economy. The dual shock of the pandemic followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dislocated Dhaka’s macroeconomic growth story. Predicated on a model of compromised institutions, basic welfare spending, and coercing opponents and media into silence, this macroeconomic story would’ve knelt under its own contradictions sooner or later. But the enormity and timing of these external shocks are proving to be force multipliers for Hasina’s opponents. The financial shrinkage is not yet an external debt crisis, but the austerity measures will only worsen the cost-of-living situation. Plus, a banking sector crunch is dwindling Hasina’s internal patronage networks critical for political survival.

A sign of stress in this regard is the series of multibillion-dollar loans to the S Alam Group by the Islami Bank, the Social Islami Bank, and the First Security Islami Bank. Why would Hasina’s key financier, who has ownership stakes in many Bangladeshi banks, take humongous loans to allegedly buy hotels and malls in Singapore when the economy is facing an acute crisis? This move ties Bangladesh’s financial future to a single firm, and could potentially trigger a Sri Lanka-type collapse. Under investigation, this case indicates different possibilities, none of which are promising. If the S Alam group did this with Hasina’s permission, then this could be an “exit loan” that lights a long political fuse that could implode the economy, but not under Hasina’s. But if this occurred without Hasina’s approval, then she has a Brutus in the mix.

It raises the question: What does the BNP have to offer if — and it’s a big if — it does somehow come to power? This is where the story becomes grimmer. The BNP’s revival is being driven by widespread anti-Hasina sentiment, not because it has a larger vision for governance. The unexpected success of its rallies has united the party behind its polarising exiled leader, Tarique Rahman, with public sympathies for an ailing Khaleda Zia still intact. Few of the BNP’s promises of steering clear of Chinese finance, mending ties with India, distancing from Islamist radicals, or ushering democratic and institutional integrity will survive on impact with a troubled economy and a restless populace.

The primal, time-tested political logic that is then likely to guide the BNP is to secure its bases and ensure that it remains in power. Even if it adopts a forgiving approach towards Hasina, the party is unlikely to invest in institutional transparency or democratic strengthening, given the accruing costs of failure. In the medium term, it could even take an Islamic populist turn and tilt towards Beijing to offset the political risks of economic turbulence. This has happened before, and Hasina likely understands this best. If the BNP is committed to ousting her tomorrow, Hasina could be more focused on wrecking the day after tomorrow, in the hope of regaining leverage today.

It is the structural inevitability of history repeating itself that makes the current moment loaded with risk. There is a dire need for calibrated behind-the-scenes intervention by regional powers, especially India, to ideally prevent or, at minimum, contain the aftermath of the brewing storm in Bangladesh. If current approaches are not working — New Delhi does have channels with Hasina’s opponents — then different strategies might be needed. The last thing the Subcontinent needs is a serious disruption in the livelihoods and hopes of Bangladeshis. For, that will only add to India’s geopolitical woes in its east where endemic violence and Chinese ingress continues to stymie New Delhi’s geoeconomic aspirations.
ricky_v
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by ricky_v »

i know not the players in bangladeshi polity, except for the fact that it has been ruled by 2 factions overseen by 2 ladies since its inception, sooner or later the extant players will leave the board, should we look to the ramblings of anu anwars of the world for a deeper understanding on what is to come, or is it akin to seeking the blind guidance of rana ayyub on the polity situation in india? or is the fate of bangladesh intricately tied with the plethora of the ngos that mill around provinces and wield disproportionate powers for ones of their mandate?
https://archive.is/wESzM
On January 10, in an unprecedented move, newly appointed Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang stopped over in Dhaka as his first-ever foreign trip, which broke a streak that had lasted 32 years.

The Chinese high-level visits to Bangladesh came amid a flurry of U.S. diplomatic activity. Eileen Laubacher, the senior director for South Asia at the White House’s National Security Council, arrived in Dhaka for a four-day visit on January 7; she met with Momen on January 9, just before Qin’s brief sojourn at the Dhaka airport. Donald Lu, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs, concluded a high-voltage visit last week.
The United States and China are in intense competition to win this battle, but the ultimate beneficiary is neither the U.S. nor China – it’s India. New Delhi is quietly playing Beijing and Washington against one another without draining its own resources in this geopolitical battle.
India’s number one demand – to uproot Northeast separatist movements – has been delivered, much to New Delhi’s satisfaction. Bangladesh hosted India’s surveillance radar, granted access to an economic corridor connecting India’s impoverished Northeast to the mainland, and most importantly, provided access to India in all aspects of Bangladeshi life. Bangladesh became India’s third largest source of remittances, thanks in large part to the number of Indians taking up top management positions in Bangladeshi institutions.
India soon figured out a more effective way to deal with China while advancing its own geopolitical gain. India played the United States and China against each other, while bringing other key players – most notably Japan and Russia – into the game, especially those who oppose China and support India’s vision in Bangladesh.
The Awami League government has taken a number of initiatives to overcome the country’s chronic power shortage – most notably, building a nuclear power plant with a Russian company, Rostrum, under a $12 billion contract, 90 percent of which is funded by Russia. Although this is a bilateral deal between Bangladesh and Russia, India has been granted unparalleled access to this project to oversee the technical details.
India’s access is meant to assuage New Delhi’s worries about any future move by Bangladesh to develop any nuclear weapons, which would undermine India’s control over Bangladesh. By ensuring access to Bangladesh’s power plant, India will be able to nip the nuclear threat in the bud, but without investing anything in it.
Meanwhile, India is now facilitating the shipment of Russian nuclear power plant materials via an overland route to Bangladesh. Local media report suggests by doing this, India successfully projects itself as a defender of its neighboring country against colonial western hegemony.
India is also outprofiting the United States, China, Japan, or any other players that are doing business in Bangladesh’s power industry. The Washington Post reports suggest Bangladesh has overpaid India’s Adani group, aiming to gain the BJP’s support for the continuation of Awami League regime. Dhaka has given controversial quick rental deals to “politically connected” power companies.
India is playing Japan as well toward its own ends. Japan has its own China problem, and is investing resources to counter China’s inroads around the world. Before China’s entry into the infrastructure sector in Bangladesh, the whole market was predominantly controlled by Japanese companies. Now China has won some contracts, which makes New Delhi nervous – but India itself lacks the resources and technical knowledge to provide an alternative to China. Therefore, India is using Japanese resources to counter China’s inroads into Bangladeshi infrastructure, while securing its own interests in the process.
Bangladesh has long wished to build a deep-sea port. China tried hard to win the deal to build a deep-sea port in Sonadia, which Bangladesh had to give up due to New Delhi’s pressure. After a decade of delay, Bangladesh then welcomed Japanese investment in the BIG-B development project, which essentially aims to counter China’s inroads in the Bay of Bengal region. Now Japan is building the deep-sea port of Matarbari, along with a number of umbrella projects such as coal power plants, and a cross-country road providing connectivity with India’s northeastern states.


India has long been pressuring Dhaka to build road connectivity via Bangladesh to connect its Northeast with the Bay of Bengal and its West Bengal state. But due to security concerns, Bangladesh showed some reluctance to pursue this. Now, Japan is building the same road connectivity under its BIG-B project, with its own investment but helping India to gain its strategic objectives.
With the next elections due later this year, all the Western countries have been increasing pressure on the Awami League to guarantee a free, fair election. India, despite being the world’s largest democracy, has not followed suit. Rather it is doing all it can to shield the Awami League from external pressure.
srikandan
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by srikandan »

The western cabal (EU/US) are working hard to get BNP-jamaat to come to power, by making HR-violation claims on Awami League. BNP-Jamaat jihadi front would seriously weaken India's security, and the likes of Jihadidi MB in WB (as long as she remains in power) would readily make things difficult for India with the help of BD Jamaat under BNP control (since that is how she does politics).

"Free fair elections" in Bangladesh is an euphemism for getting the Jamaat-BNP to power -- they will gladly raise the rohingya temperature in the region and get rewarded for it too.
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by ricky_v »

srikandan wrote:The western cabal (EU/US) are working hard to get BNP-jamaat to come to power, by making HR-violation claims on Awami League. BNP-Jamaat jihadi front would seriously weaken India's security, and the likes of Jihadidi MB in WB (as long as she remains in power) would readily make things difficult for India with the help of BD Jamaat under BNP control (since that is how she does politics).

"Free fair elections" in Bangladesh is an euphemism for getting the Jamaat-BNP to power -- they will gladly raise the rohingya temperature in the region and get rewarded for it too.
yes, "free fair elections" is not even euphemism but rather innuendo among the lugenpresse, the bnp has been in power in the centre before, the latest 2001 if wiki is correct, besides rohingya, what other policies do they have? as India is a non-signatory of the unhrc, this babble is meaningless; what other teer do they have in their kammaan, so to say? what is bd's regional distribution and forecast like, for eg, in nepal the madhyadesh, maithala regions can be reliably counted to vote in a manner that is ultimately beneficial to both nepal and india, what is the situation of bd?

who is the anointed heir of both the bnp and awami league? khaleeda zia and sheikh hasina are not immortal, what role if any does entities like grameen bank have to play?

tl;dr, in the future, in which entity does the power lie?
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by srikandan »

ricky_v: or eg, in nepal the madhyadesh, maithala regions can be reliably counted to vote in a manner that is ultimately beneficial to both nepal and india, what is the situation of bd?
https://www.bd-pratidin.com/en/national/2022/12/08/3421
Criticizing the media, he said that policemen were lying wounded on the road, but the media did not show that scene.

“They (BNP activists) burnt the BRTC bus. Government vehicles will be burnt, and that scene will not be shown. Why this behaviour?”

Quader also wanted to know the reason why a section of media outlets was “taking sides.”

“This is my complaint. Such a big gathering in Cox’s Bazar, but the media did not show that properly. We expect the media to show what they see. We call for the truth to be shown,” he added.

Direction comes from London, Mirza Fakhrul only follows them, Quader claimed.
The BNP's backbone is the Jamaat-e-islami and they are prepared to come to power by extra-constitutional means

https://www.indiatoday.in/news-analysis ... 2022-12-13

Jamaat-e-islami is banned in India IIRC, and are all pro-pakistani jihadis, and it does not take much to create trouble if they run the country, which includes the BD security forces who will make the border with India hot and basically exhibit paki behaviour -- they will brazenly court outside powers and countries like Turkey and UK will gladly step in the breach.

The Jamaat is still a powerful group in Bangladesh, and AwamiLeague has been taking action against pro-pakistani Jamaat elements and executed a few of them, but they are still out in large numbers.

On the BNP side, once Khaleda Zia dies, chances are she will be replaced by someone more virulently pro-jamaat. India cannot relax until the Jamaat is defanged in Bangladesh.
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by RoyG »

You have to defang Ulema.

Jamaat starts from there.
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by RoyG »

West now going after RAB.

India has been trying to shield from US sanctions.

ricky_v
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by ricky_v »

dramatic as always with anything related to bds, some observations:

1) the suited guy was tortured for many hours (more than a day) in a special cell with soundproof setup, he has seen much, he names his torturer, and then they hand him to the police with obvious torture injuries? why? how would 1 more mark against their tally make or mar their sanctions?

2) the earlier guy was apparently straight-up executed, no special day-long torture sessions for him, sad, people should question rab on this apparent whimsical nature of their extra-judicial killings

3) the crew is all hush-hush, sneaking around, changing cars, clearly escaping demons, yet the rab does not consider monitoring their once tortured victim, the sister of the political activist who still has an active political consultancy, the suited guy did not hide his voice or face, and he is still in bd, why any of this?

4) finally, to the rab, vet your people for the strength in their convictions so that sobbers do not wax poetic at a later stage to anyone with a clipped copper, never carry sobbers along in any slog and this extra judicial duty is a slog of slogs

5) finally, does bd not have a strong community network for their police oficials? maybe islam overrides tribal connections after all
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by Vips »

IMF team flags risks to Bangladesh economy as reserves fall further.

The International Monetary Fund flagged risks to the Bangladesh economy such as inflation, growth and foreign reserves as it concluded its mission under the $4.7 billion loan programme.

“Persistent inflationary pressures, elevated volatility of global financial conditions, and slowdown in major advanced trading partners continue to weigh on growth, foreign currency reserves, and the Taka,” according to a press release from the IMF following the conclusion of the staff team visit on May 7.

The IMF will conduct the first review of its Extended Credit Facility, Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangements later this year, the press release said.

Reserves are expected to fall to $29.86 billion, the lowest in seven years, after import bill payments for two months next week.
Exports fell 16.5% to $3.95 billion in April from a year earlier as orders from clothing retailers slowed. Inward remittances that help the country’s balance of payments declined 16% year-on-year to $1.68 billion in April.


In February, Bangladesh received $476 million as the first installment of the IMF loans, while the disbursement of the second tranche is expected in November.

Bangladesh highlighted a more flexible exchange rate and reforms to banks’ lending rate to the IMF team, which visited the country from April 25 to May 7.

Banks will be allowed, starting in July, to set their lending rates at a maximum of 3% above the six-month weighted average rates for Treasury bills. The rate corridor, a key IMF condition, replaces the 9% cap on the lending rate.
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by Dilbu »

Indian Railways hands over 20 broad gauge locomotives to Bangladesh]Indian Railways hands over 20 broad gauge locomotives to Bangladesh
New Delhi: In a bid to strengthen bilateral relations, Indian Railways virtually handed over 20 Broad Gauge (BG) locomotives to Bangladesh in a ceremony held at Rail Bhavan New Delhi. The event was attended by Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw and Bangladesh Minister for Railways Nurul Islam Sujan.

These locomotives, provided as grant assistance from the Government of India, fulfill an important commitment made during the visit of Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina to India in October 2019.
The Indian side has suitably modified the locomotives to meet the requirements of Bangladesh Railway. This handover will contribute to handling the increasing volume of passenger and freight train operations in Bangladesh.

Speaking on this occasion, Ashwini Vaishnaw said, “India’s relationship with Bangladesh is civilizational, cultural, social and economic. Prime Ministers of both the countries are playing proactive role to improve bilateral relationship across social, economic and political sectors. Indian Railways are also playing a vital role in improving and strengthening rail connectivity across the border and improving trade between both the countries.“
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by IndraD »

Today, I announced a new visa policy to promote free and fair elections. Under this policy, we can impose visa restrictions on individuals and their immediate family members if they are responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1 ... 95284?s=20
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by sanman »

US meddling in Bangladesh?? Why??

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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by chetak »

Image
Aditya_V
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by Aditya_V »

IndraD wrote: 25 May 2023 01:22 Today, I announced a new visa policy to promote free and fair elections. Under this policy, we can impose visa restrictions on individuals and their immediate family members if they are responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1 ... 95284?s=20
So they want anti India Khaleda Zia faction in BD?
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by Manish_P »

^^ Chetak saab, that is just :rotfl:
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by chetak »

Manish_P wrote: 22 Dec 2023 09:56 ^^ Chetak saab, that is just :rotfl:

Manish ji,

It was dredged off the net.

Must admit that it's very apt, though
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by ricky_v »

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/India/ba ... r-AA1mxHnS

with the bnp boycotting the polls, the win for awami league / sheikh hasina is all but guaranteed. The only 2 questions would be:
who is the heir apparent that the country can look to engage

what will us with its persistent hardon for the bangladesh elections do?
Ahead of the elections, Hasina's government arrested tens of thousands of rival politicians and supporters, a move which rights groups have condemned as an attempt to paralyse the Opposition.
DHAKA: Bangladesh will go to the polls on Sunday in which Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is expected to win a fourth straight term in the absence of the main Opposition BNP which is boycotting the elections amidst violence and has called for a 48-hour nationwide strike against the "illegal government."

BNP spokesman Ruhul Kabir Rizvi announced the strike, saying it was aimed to press for their demands for "resignation of the illegal government, establishment of a non-party neutral government and release of all party leaders and activists from prison".

Ahead of the elections, Hasina's government arrested tens of thousands of rival politicians and supporters, a move which rights groups have condemned as an attempt to paralyse the Opposition.
Despite the strict security arrangements, unidentified people carried homemade bomb and arson attacks in empty polling centres in four out of 64 administrative districts, while BNP activists clashed with police in another district, leaving five people wounded on Friday.

At least four people were killed when a passenger train was torched by arsonists near Dhaka on Friday night.

The BNP has demanded a UN-supervised investigation into the incident which it described as a "pre-planned" act of sabotage.
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by VinodTK »

Bangladesh: Sheikh Hasina wins election for fifth term | Hasina's party wins more than half of seats


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtxS0nxnkh0
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by uddu »

Bangladesh need to be careful and ready for "Murder of Democracy" charges followed by violence from the Usual lot. One could expect some political parties in India taking inspiration from Bangladesh elections and boycotting unfair elections at the behest of Two party democrazy which is one step away from One party Communist China. :D
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by Cyrano »

It has already started !

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/bangl ... 88567.html

French press report, please use browser translate
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by Lisa »

This is template Sir. If 2024 goes with BJP then lets boycott 2029 then whole process becomes illegitimate until youth icon can have his turn!
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Re: Bangladesh News and Discussion

Post by A_Gupta »

https://www.firstpost.com/world/joe-bid ... 90732.html
The United States is committed to partnering with Bangladesh on a shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific, said President Joe Biden in a letter to Sheikh Hasina.

The US President expressed his willingness to work together to achieve Bangladesh’s economic goals.

In the letter, shared by the US embassy in Bangladesh with the country’s foreign ministry, Biden said, “The United States is committed to supporting Bangladesh’s ambitious economic goals and partnering with Bangladesh on our shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
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