Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stability

[Samay]

The New Great Game

[svinayak]

Look at a map of the world. You will see that the area furthest from any ocean is the deep interior of the Eurasian land mass. The British reasoned that if they could conquer the Eurasian interior, they would then be able to apply force from this region against the neighboring countries while the British fleet would attack as usual against their coastal regions. Thus Russia, China, India and all of Europe would be forever under British military dominance, and thereby be eliminated as competitors in the struggle for world conquest. They reasoned that the remainder of the globe was a far lesser military challenge, which could be managed with relative military ease by the British fleet, and thus easily accessible coastal regions of the remainder of the world were not the focus of their military plans as was the absolutely vital Eurasian interior.

One of the agenda items of the British Empire is the culling of most of the people on the planet Earth. They also intend that the mass of the remaining population will be reduced to peasant social status, and kept in perpetual ignorance so that any revolt against their overlords will be impossible. By these means they intend to establish a global empire which will rule the world for all time without any possibility of being overthrown, either by any competing empires, which will all have been eliminated, or by the peasants, who will be held in perpetual bondage and therefore likewise unable to rise up against the oligarchs.

The following quoted passage is from a letter written by British imperial strategist Halford Mackinder to the British Royal Geographical Society. The letter was entitled, "The Geographical Pivot of History."

"As we consider this rapid review of the broader currents of history, does not a certain persistence of geographical relationship become evident? Is not the pivot region of the world’s politics that vast area of Euro-Asia which is inaccessible to ships, but in antiquity lay open to the horse riding nomads, and is today about to be covered with a network of railways. There have been and are here the conditions of a mobility of military and economic power of a far-reaching and yet limited character. Russia replaces the Mogul empire. Her pressure on Finland, on Scandinavia, on Poland, on Turkey, on Persia, on India, on China replaces the centrifugal raids of the steppe-men. In the world at large she occupies the central strategically position held by Germany in Europe. In conclusion, it may be well expressly to point out that the substitution of some new control of inland area for that of Russia would not tend to reduce the geographical significance of the pivot point. Were the Chinese, for instance, organized by the Japanese, to overthrow the Russian Empire and conquer its territory, they might constitute the Yellow Peril to the world’s freedom."

This article describes the various elements of the Great Game.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/4812906/India-and-Geopolitics

[ramana]

Very aptly named map. Must be lot of thought went into it.

Thanks fro the map.

[shiv]

Very aptly named map. Must be lot of thought went into it.

Thanks fro the map.

I'm glad you liked it. Just wanted to show how easy it is to generate meaningless crap on a map so people can waste time wondering what the hell is going on.

[svenkat]

Shiv avare ,
That was nasty.

[Keshav]

I'm glad you liked it. Just wanted to show how easy it is to generate meaningless crap on a map so people can waste time wondering what the hell is going on.

[ramana]

On the surface everything is shallow.

[ramana]

There is an online journal called

The China and Eurasia Forum Journal which is a Swedish -US joint effort on Central Asian studies. The good thing is they are in pdf format and free to read.

[ramana]

What is PRC's grand strategy and where does India fit into that?

[Keshav]

What is PRC's grand strategy and where does India fit into that?

Normally, I would say business venture (or economic hegemony like the USA) but how many Chinese companies operate with India or in India? Besides manufacturing, I don't think there are that many.

[ramana]

Keshav, China has emerged from a 13th century feudal society and leaped into the 20th century. My question is what do they want to do in next 25 to 50 years? 100 years?

What is their national aspiration and its geographic impact? Commercial dominaince is only one aspect.

Suggest reading Paul Kennedy's book to get an idea of what the question is about.

The key to PRC is how it transforms itself form a belligerent totalitarian state to a reasonable representative state. I wrote something in 2001 in BRM:


The Challenge of China

[RajeshA]

Islam is intrinsic to the human society. If Islam had not been there, it would have to be invented, and that is what happened. It represents the irrational, the anarchist, the destructive, the hypocritical, the megalomaniac, the absolutist, the fanatic, the aggressive, the predatory, the self-destructive, the revisionist urge of human society, et voilá! There you have it, ta ta! ISLAM!

Islam is also the bestest proxy, any power broker in the world can hope for! Islam is a zealot collecting machine! Once the word goes out, thousands of zealots heed the call, and are ready for Jihad! That makes the operationalization of the plans of any power broker quick and fast, just like he would have it! Of course, just like in case of cigarette packs, there is a warning on the pack - Hazardous to life, Blowback can be severe.

So generally all other powers in the world have 'learned' to wield this force of nature, just like they would wield wind-power. Perhaps the example of nuclear energy would be much more appropriate. One needs many layers of containment, to protect the one who wields this power.

The Americans, the British, the Pakistanis, the Chinese all use Islamists as their proxies. One just paints the musharraf of one's foe in bright red, and then wait for the bull to charge, the problem being one gets enough red color on one's hands as well.

Question is: Can India, should India also wield the Islamist weapons of mass destruction or not? Can there be a situation in the future, where the kafirs of Hindustan, can directly or indirectly direct the discharge of the Islamist exhaust pipe? Could it become a weapon in India's hand to weaken other competitors for power in Asia and beyond?

One thing is clear! If anybody wants to ride the tiger, then one would have to have more strength than the tiger, otherwise it is best that one simply makes sure, that the tiger is dead. Currently as we can neither ride the tiger, nor kill it, India would probably opt to keep it out of our house as much as we can. Even in that endeavor, India will fail as India's paper walls will not suffice. We have a long way to go! First step is however to get rid of the fear!

DISCLAIMER: I mean 'instrumentalized' Islam, which one finds in the region where the Great Game is being played

[Vishal_Bhatia]

Islam is intrinsic to the human society. If Islam had not been there, it would have to be invented, and that is what happened. It represents the irrational, the anarchist, the destructive, the hypocritical, the megalomaniac, the absolutist, the fanatic, the aggressive, the predatory, the self-destructive, the revisionist urge of human society, et voilá! There you have it, ta ta! ISLAM!

Islam is also the bestest proxy, any power broker in the world can hope for! Islam is a zealot collecting machine! Once the word goes out, thousands of zealots heed the call, and are ready for Jihad! That makes the operationalization of the plans of any power broker quick and fast, just like he would have it! Of course, just like in case of cigarette packs, there is a warning on the pack - Hazardous to life, Blowback can be severe.

How much of Islam do you actually know to talk shyt like that?

[RajeshA]

How much of Islam do you actually know to talk shyt like that?

Bhatia ji,
how many words did you learn, to come up with a one-liner like that?

[Vishal_Bhatia]

How much of Islam do you actually know to talk shyt like that?

Bhatia ji,
how many words did you learn, to come up with a one-liner like that?

Enough to know you are spousing communalist hatred. Again my question stands, on what basis did you make those conclusions?

[RajeshA]

Enough to know you are spousing communalist hatred. Again my question stands, on what basis did you make those conclusions?

Yes, a very good morning to you. Hope you had a nice night's sleep!

But in one thing you are indeed correct, and I accept my mistake. When I was speaking of Islam, I meant 'instrumentalized' Islam, which one finds in the region where the Great Game is being played. I thought it was clear in the context, as this is the "Great Game" thread. My apologies to all and sundry, for the above misunderstanding!

[shaardula]

Islam is intrinsic to the human society. If Islam had not been there, it would have to be invented, and that is what happened. It represents the irrational, the anarchist, the destructive, the hypocritical, the megalomaniac, the absolutist, the fanatic, the aggressive, the predatory, the self-destructive, the revisionist urge of human society, et voilá! There you have it, ta ta! ISLAM!

Islam is also the

bestest proxy, any power broker in the world can hope for

! Islam is a zealot collecting machine! Once the word goes out, thousands of zealots heed the call, and are ready for Jihad! That makes the operationalization of the plans of any power broker quick and fast, just like he would have it! Of course, just like in case of cigarette packs, there is a warning on the pack - Hazardous to life, Blowback can be severe.

So generally all other powers in the world have 'learned' to wield this force of nature, just like they would wield wind-power. Perhaps the example of nuclear energy would be much more appropriate. One needs many layers of containment, to protect the one who wields this power.

The Americans, the British, the Pakistanis, the Chinese all use Islamists as their proxies. One just paints the musharraf of one's foe in bright red, and then wait for the bull to charge, the problem being one gets enough red color on one's hands as well.

Question is: Can India, should India also wield the Islamist weapons of mass destruction or not? Can there be a situation in the future, where the kafirs of Hindustan, can directly or indirectly direct the discharge of the Islamist exhaust pipe? Could it become a weapon in India's hand to weaken other competitors for power in Asia and beyond?

One thing is clear! If anybody wants to ride the tiger, then one would have to have more strength than the tiger, otherwise it is best that one simply makes sure, that the tiger is dead. Currently as we can neither ride the tiger, nor kill it, India would probably opt to keep it out of our house as much as we can. Even in that endeavor, India will fail as India's paper walls will not suffice. We have a long way to go! First step is however to get rid of the fear!

DISCLAIMER: I mean 'instrumentalized' Islam, which one finds in the region where the Great Game is being played

very very interesting. it can perhaps be worded differently, but it is very interesting. you have mentioned one direction, i think a cycle is also completed.

[Vishal_Bhatia]

Yes, a very good morning to you. Hope you had a nice night's sleep!

Good morning to you too.

But in one thing you are indeed correct, and I accept my mistake. When I was speaking of Islam, I meant 'instrumentalized' Islam, which one finds in the region where the Great Game is being played. I thought it was clear in the context, as this is the "Great Game" thread. My apologies to all and sundry, for the above misunderstanding!

So you are saying that the type of Islam found in the region where the Great Game is being played is barbaric and anarchist and fanatic and predatory?

Again I disagree with you, but still, maintaining that line of thought... why do you think this is so? Why is it that this barbarism is seen in this region? And if, as you say, it is a hallmark of the Islam in this region (which again I disagree with), is it solely Islam's fault? Or is it because Islam evolved differently out here?

To add to the above, do you not think that geography had something to do with how Islam evolved in this region? Hasn't Central Asia, owing to its geography and ecology, necessitated an aggressive society for survival?

Sorry for going off-topic, but expanding upon that line of thinking... sometimes, I really wonder whether Hinduism could have evolved anywhere else in the world...

[Atri]

So you are saying that the type of Islam found in the region where the Great Game is being played is barbaric and anarchist and fanatic and predatory?

......
......

To add to the above, do you not think that geography had something to do with how Islam evolved in this region? Hasn't Central Asia, owing to its geography and ecology, necessitated an aggressive society for survival?

True... Irrespective of Islam, the central Asian tribal mentality has been India's perpetual pain in the ass since the Rigvedic days.. Just that after Islamization of that tendency it became more malignant...

Here are my two cents on the topic - Primary threat to Indian civilization - Tribal Central Asian mentality

[brihaspati]

Vishal_Bhatia wrote
Why is it that this barbarism is seen in this region? And if, as you say, it is a hallmark of the Islam in this region (which again I disagree with), is it solely Islam's fault? Or is it because Islam evolved differently out here?
To add to the above, do you not think that geography had something to do with how Islam evolved in this region? Hasn't Central Asia, owing to its geography and ecology, necessitated an aggressive society for survival?

A very interesting thought indeed.

Suppose for the moment that conditions were exceptionally and uniquely harsh in central Asia, and left its mark on the faith. But then, what was there in the condition on the fertile plains of India that failed to remove this mark, centuries after coming out of central Asia? All along the Sultanate history, as late as Muhammad bin Tughlaq, the chroniclers from the faith gloat in the explicit acts of barbarity and cruelty perpetarted on the non-faith Indians. The wonderfully sophisticated and cultured and liberal actual passages of Indian-textbook-referred-to such paragons of virtue like Ziauddin Barani, Amir Khusrao, and Ibn Batutah provide delightful details of the possible effects or non-effects of geography.

Before the advent of Arab Muslim traders and slavers into East Africa, there is archaeological evidence of prosperity and fertility. So in spite of geographical "fecundity", the faith's characteristics does not appear to have been affected. By the same argument, Nigeria, and most of East Africa is comparable in harshness to central Asia.

If you really compare relative conditions of central Asia and the deserts of Arabia, the central Asian geography is far less harsh. Thus Islamic ideology faced a less harsh condition than its point of origin.

Was there long standing harshness in central Asia? Then that should have left its stamp on faiths that existed there before the advent of Islam. Various forms of Buddhist and even Hindu as well as what is nowadays described as "animist/ancestor worship" existed. With two short lived major exceptions of apparent aggression, the "Kushanas" and "Huns", we do not have any other major evidence of aggression before the advent of Islam. The extensive Buddhist monastery/univeristy networks in central Asia are well attested to in history. Further, archaeological evidence of millenia spanning east-west trade through the "silk-route" (probably existing long before silk was ctually traded, and as early as the late ice-age), would not have been possible if the harshness of the geography affected its local faiths so much.

Finally, in African savannas, lions hunt for meat where most animals survive on being vegetarian. Did geography and ecology necessitate taking the "lion" path? Well the argument is that otherwise the vegetarians would grow too much and finish off al natural resources. But then, alternatively, as the vegetarians resources fell low, they would lose the capacity to reproduce and support their unmaintainable population size, and the population size would adjust to the sutainable one on its own without the kind attention of the lion. So what was the necessity of the lion anyway? Well there is another mesmerizing argument possible perhaps - that of the example of the dodo - the lack of a violent aggressive predator allows you to grow fat and lazy and without aggressive menas to defend yourself. So is that the final attraction for ecology and geographical argument going to be - the faith is there so that you are kept on your feet and healthy?

[RajeshA]

So you are saying that the type of Islam found in the region where the Great Game is being played is barbaric and anarchist and fanatic and predatory?

Again I disagree with you, but still, maintaining that line of thought... why do you think this is so? Why is it that this barbarism is seen in this region? And if, as you say, it is a hallmark of the Islam in this region (which again I disagree with), is it solely Islam's fault? Or is it because Islam evolved differently out here?

To add to the above, do you not think that geography had something to do with how Islam evolved in this region? Hasn't Central Asia, owing to its geography and ecology, necessitated an aggressive society for survival?

Sorry for going off-topic, but expanding upon that line of thinking... sometimes, I really wonder whether Hinduism could have evolved anywhere else in the world...

Vishal_Bhatia ji,

I am not sure, I can serve you with enough historical depth about the evolution of society in Central Asian region right now. What is however clear, is that since the last 200 odd years, this region has become a playground for world powers trying to assert control over transit routes (both for trade and for military invasions), over the resources, over the strategic depth, over the soldiers that this region provides. Before that the last 200 years there were either other regional powers who made use of the above or certain warlords from amongst the ethnicities in the region were able to harness the above resources and possibilities. Thus this region was always of interest to the powers of the day.

Islam earlier, and today more so, has given the currents of power and influence in this region a certain ideological framework. The warlike rugged nature of the people in the region, power politics of the region, and Islam have formed a symbiosis, and all have been affected by it. Islam has provided a sort of an ethernet, a medium, through which the violence in the region and alleged victimhood (another much appreciated aspect of Islam) beyond the region have flowed to and fro, both effects getting amplified, something we also know as the Ummah effect.

Since the advent of global news network and instant self-ubiquity, the Great-Game between the powers has become a lot more complex and the hazards of blowback have also increased. Telecommunications, air travel, diasporas, weapons of mass destruction, increased self-awareness of the pawns, multiplication of power centers, have all contributed to the risk of severe blowbacks.

However no power player can afford to retreat, even as one's hands are getting burned, while holding one's leverage in the region. This is because nobody really wants to leave all those goodies to the other power players. The more radicalized the Muslims in the region become, the more important they become, both as weapons to wield against one's foes but also as to thwart other powers' moves to recruit these radicalized humans for their own purpose, including to cause harm to them. The first ones to jump from the tiger may be devoured by the tiger first.

The creation of Pakistan was meant to serve the British interests to enable them to use the resources of the region, and to divert all the ensuing exhaust from the furnace towards the Indians. They wanted to be able to use the Islamic warriors to weaken their other traditional enemies, the Russians, to keep a check on the Chinese, and using the leverage to the East of Iran to checkmate Iran in Middle East. Even after retreating, the British wanted to keep the Great Game alive. Pakistan was thought up as the suitable medium to realize their control over Central Asia, over the pawns of the Great Game, the Pushtuns, the Uzbeks, the Tajiks. The Mohajir-Pakjabi combine was supposed to deliver Central Asia to the British.

In 2009, while playing this game, the hands of everybody are burning, the Chechens pricking the Russians, the Uighurs pricking the Chinese, the Al-Qaida Arabs pricking the Americans, the TTP hitting out at the Pakjabis, etc. but nobody will let go of the fire-ball. In the meantime India keeps on getting the full exhaust.

BTW, it is the people in the region, who determine what Islam is to them. We can only observe how their Islam manifests itself for us.

[ramana]

All this is the Great Game thread w.r.t. Central Asia. Please take discussions of religions and society elsewhere.
a request and if not followed a demand.
Thanks, ramana

[Samay]

From the above tit for tat , I have got an idea where this game is going to submerge and what is the role of islam in all this? example 1
If we analyze central asia as a land mass ,we see that

1. Its central tendency(geographically) from all the powers ,whosoever wants to expand its wings make it a ridiculed landmass ,that is sure to have large number of conflicts in future as well...

2. If we consider central asia as a region starting from turkey to tajikistan to afghanistan,Its proximity ,borders or area of influence ensures ,that whatever happens there will effect India negatively and rarely positively (example2 )
therefore it is certain that India has to contain whatever influence central asia has to offer .

3.The muslim population in central asia will ensure that Islam is a force to face ,whether there is no islam in India or there is complete islam(Islamic rule) in India. this can be seen with the difference between the type of islam in these two regions
(ex3,
ex 4
ex 5 ex 6)
say wahabi+central asian mix vs sufism+ deobandi ,. If at least there will be an issue relating to the the internal structure of islam in these two region that will cause conflict.
Separating islam from the great game will be a huge mistake.

4. Great game could be said to be dependent on islam's fate in central aisa,
If islam gets weaker, depressing force (russians,americans, and who knows what else)will conquer, If not then a surging central asian islam will find its way into the subcontinent's barrier,which is of greater possibility. This ratiocination proves that whatever it is ,whether the nato-taliban conflicts last longer or not, whether nato-gets initial victories or not, this central wave will try evade the Indian borders sooner or later,and will try to do so using the present seeds of islam in India, kind of thing it is doing in pakistan.

The great game is of importance only up to the point it ends, the concluding effects will be same,
we can say Indians are buying more time by ensuring and preserving the US presence and modern civilization (way of life) in afghanistan.

[RajeshA]

There will be a change in dynamics in Central Asia

o once the oil runs,
o somebody decides to put to use the already existing bio-agents which only work against poppy-plants
o the powers jointly decide that the strategic value of Central Asia is overhyped.

Last time when Islam confronted an industrial upsurge in the West, they had to lay their hands of much of their conquered territories. Then came Oil and gave Islam a chance to fightback. Then came the nukes, and gave Islam a medium of extortion. The question is, what happens when Oil runs out! How are the monarchs going to feed their teeming millions? What are the 1.5 billion people going to eat?

Disclaimer: Islam == Muslim World = Ummah

[ramana]

Interesting thinking Samay that India is letting US guard its buffers.. So you have been reading all those books!

its only lately people have been paying attention to CA as a source of problems from a long time. What Caore was saying is that a strong India managed to keep the Central Asian out and that ensured the balance in Asia.

However his concept of India was West Pakistan region. And its stability was important. We find that again being confirmed by your thinking. As TSP--> downhill the horde (tribal elements) pours into it. But if we think more broadly if Afghanistan is stabile then it doesnt matter the mess West Paksitan is in. So we need to work on strengthening Afghanistan. And GOI is doing that softly. Need to keep hard options also ready.

[Samay]

Exactly
GOI is playing smarter moves this time ,somehow trying to alter the climax of the movie , courtesy pakistan's sovereignty and the border jumps that Indians have to make .
Only time will decide whether Indians are successful in
loop-bound-restrain policy or not.
Kudos to ABV govt for taking initiatives in Afghanistan,they played an out of the box game ,left US ,china licking, as India reached Afg as a friend,not as an invader, in between the WOT
a lot depends on MMS' skills now

[svinayak]

What Caore was saying is that a strong India managed to keep the Central Asian out and that ensured the balance in Asia.

However his concept of India was West Pakistan region. And its stability was important. We find that again being confirmed by your thinking. As TSP--> downhill the horde (tribal elements) pours into it. But if we think more broadly if Afghanistan is stabile then it doesnt matter the mess West Paksitan is in. So we need to work on strengthening Afghanistan. And GOI is doing that softly. Need to keep hard options also ready.

Afghanistan has been a region for outside powers to meddle in for atleast 1000 years. It used to be mostly the neighboring countries which used to interfere such as Iran, Hindustan or central asian tribes.
After the advent of modern age and Industrial states of Europe the intervention in Afghanistan has been more brutal in the last 300 years. The superpower clash in the last century was the most destabilizing in its history and the country was completely run down with a skewed Islamist ideology implanted in the new generation. This spread of the ideology is creating failed states around the periphery of Afghanistan.
A major power is trying to bring stability in a run down area but it is creating more anarchy in the region due to the ideology implanted in the population.

Pakistan is a rentier state and is able to handle the anarchy only barely but will wither into chaos if its people and elite are unable to create legitimacy. That is the bigger danger.

[ramana]

Actually what I see is that for first time in centuries nay millenia that India is reaching out to Afghanistan to ensure a friendly stable regime is in place. Its like the old Indo-Gangetic subsidy to Gandahar from the days of Shakuni mama. The good thing inIndia's favor is that Afghan's West (Shia Iran) and North (Tajik, Uzbek) are already stabilised despite TSP trying to reach out and touch someone in the "stans" with jihads.

On the contrary only place where jihad is smoldering is in East Turkemenistan aka Uigher Sinkiang which is TSP's best friend. One way of looking is TSP succeeds the blowback to PRC is great as they lose their nuke test sites in Lop Nor! So both TSP and PRC maal is in jepoardy.

[svinayak]

On the contrary only place where jihad is smoldering is in East Turkemenistan aka Uigher Sinkiang which is TSP's best friend. One way of looking is TSP succeeds the blowback to PRC is great as they lose their nuke test sites in Lop Nor! So both TSP and PRC maal is in jepoardy.

It may not be that simple. India will be affected no matter what and has to choose its cards carefully.

[SwamyG]

Here you go Gurus, some material for you: Shanghai second fiddle

India can’t object to the Chinese and Russian definition of their self-interests in Afghanistan. But there is no reason why Delhi should become a clapper boy for Beijing and Moscow in Central Asia. Delhi’s differences Beijing and Moscow on the Af-Pak region are real and must be addressed purposefully.

Meanwhile, the contradictions between India’s interests and those of Russia and China in the Great Game territory have become sharper. Russia would love to see the US humbled in Afghanistan. India, on the other hand, wants the Taliban defeated in the Af-Pak region. If the US turns its back on Afghanistan, Beijing knows, Kabul will come under the sway of Pakistan, China’s all-weather friend. India’s interest is the opposite — preserving Kabul’s autonomy vis-a-vis Pakistan.

Ludhiana School

If you think Ludhiana and high politics are mutually exclusive, think again. Historians of the Great Game tell you that in the early decades of the 19th century, the Ludhiana Residency was the Raj’s principal observation post for Punjab and Afghanistan and home to some inspired strategic thinking. The officers of the Raj at Ludhiana developed a set of theses about the frontier that eventually came to be known as the Punjab School. They ran a prolonged argument with the Bombay Presidency on how Calcutta should secure India’s north-western borderlands.

The former eventually became the ‘close-border’ school calling for a defence of British India on the Indus while the latter turned into the ‘forward school’ demanding power-play way beyond the Indus.

If Bombay was focused on Persia, Ludhiana concentrated on the kingdoms run by the Sikhs and Pashtuns. The Ludhiana school’s preoccupation was with the dynamic tension between Lahore and Kabul. Some things obviously don’t change in the Great Game. The success of Delhi’s own Af-Pak policy might depend on thinking creatively about balancing Lahore and Kabul.

[ramana]

On cue from maximum accomodationist. Indian interests are in this order
1) Preserve/support Kabul or Kapisa
2) Keep US occupied in TSP with fighting the Pakiban to ensure "moderate' TSP state survival
3) Keep PRC out of old Great Game
4) Keep Russia out of trouble

CRM's article is from US interests POV.

To say that MMS is being forced to go to SCO is ridiculous. He should have gone even earlier. And MMS should engage in whatever relationships that advance Indian interests multilateral or ultilateral.

If Kabul comes under Taliban sway then PRC can kiss Sinkiang good bye. So what kool aid is CRM drinking?

We have already seen what the chances are of reaching a bilateral understanding with PRC? Zilch. Atleast with Moscow standing by they might agree to some minimal opening for Indian support. India walkingout of Afghanistan is a big loss for them in Pak-Af for that will allow TSP to take over Kabul. And that is the card to be played.

Also until peak oil no scope with KSA to see reason. So thats a waste of time. Should get the Haj quota for IM increased. thats more useful.

Forget Ludhiana/Bombay/Calcutta. What is the view from Chennai? That is the big picture for it gives the perspective instead of close up view..

[RajeshA]

Shanghai second fiddle

Meanwhile, the contradictions between India’s interests and those of Russia and China in the Great Game territory have become sharper. Russia would love to see the US humbled in Afghanistan. India, on the other hand, wants the Taliban defeated in the Af-Pak region. If the US turns its back on Afghanistan, Beijing knows, Kabul will come under the sway of Pakistan, China’s all-weather friend. India’s interest is the opposite — preserving Kabul’s autonomy vis-a-vis Pakistan.

I don't believe that is true. Russia would love to see US and NATO become dependent on Russia for an alternate supply route through Russia or one of its 'near abroad' friends, provided US doesn't start a separate love affair with the 'near abroad' while doing so.

Russia too doesn't want to see the Taliban come back to power in Kabul. The present arrangement where the non-Pushtuns and the Durranis hold power in Kabul suits Moscow, and they have a good relationship going on there. To a large extent the power holders at the moment are dependent on good beneficial relations with Moscow's 'near abroad'. A return to Taliban rule will mean a reorientation of Kabul for trade and support southwards and an aggressive Jihadist posture northwards. Not Good!

If Kabul comes under Taliban sway then PRC can kiss Sinkiang good bye. So what kool aid is CRM drinking?

We have already seen what the chances are of reaching a bilateral understanding with PRC? Zilch.

For that reason, IMO, it pays to retain the Taliban as power holders in a new demarcated Pushtunistan, consisting of Afghan and Pakistani regions) where India is the prime or one of the prime stabilizing powers of its periphery (Pakjab, Sindh, Baluchistan, Northern and Western Afghanistan Federation, Northern Areas of Kashmir extending into Kohistan, Chitral & Badakhshan). In a circle of Indian-friendly stability one can have a geographically contained Talibanized Pushtunistan, an Islamic exhaust pipe, which India can direct. It is a question of being able to ensure the nature of input and nature of output from a Talibanized Pushtunistan.

India needs to create new options for herself in this game, especially against our adversaries, the current 3½ friends of Pakistan. Of course, we are talking long term here.

[SwamyG]

From a long term interest from Indian point of view would be get some direct land route to CA. It is going to be rather narrow and strategic - so heavily contested. BTW how do people in CA feel about Bollywood movies?

[RajeshA]

I don't know that many Central Asians, but one Uzbek girl I know, is simply crazy about India and Bollywood, and very friendly towards me, not just because of my good looks, but I guess, also because I am an Indian.

[SwamyG]

A short-term goal would be to send more traders out into those countries Time-tested way of settling in other lands.

[ramana]

From a long term interest from Indian point of view would be get some direct land route to CA. It is going to be rather narrow and strategic - so heavily contested. BTW how do people in CA feel about Bollywood movies?

The first country that Islam Karimov visited after the formation of the CIS was India. Unfortunately due to economic crisis except vists India couldn't offer much in early days. And after that the drift has ensured non-attention. J.N. Dixit had a plan to engage the CA states in a (w)holistic manner.

[Vishal_Bhatia]

I don't know that many Central Asians, but one Uzbek girl I know, is simply crazy about India and Bollywood

I saw a documentary on Afghanistan once; it showed a video store, and the only CDs/cassettes being sold there were of Bollywood movies. Apparently, DDLJ was very big out there. I wouldn't be surprised if this is true for all Central Asian states.

If the GoI formulates any policy/plan to engage Central Asian states, my suggestion is that Bollywood should be included.

[SwamyG]

I have heard Somalis speaking of Amitabh Bachchan with fondness. We can use Indian educational industry and entertainment industry to spread our cultural influence. Yesterday, I caught the last few seconds (literally) of a show in MSNBC. The guest (apparently a documentary film maker of 'Rethinking Afghanistan) was commenting that he met Afghanis telling him that so and so hospital or road was built by the Indians. He wanted USA to get into that kind of position. I also read that India seems to be holding back and not going fully into Afghanistan because it does not want to impact Pakistani sensitivity too much. We need to get 2-3 countries around Afghanistan into our cultural and political influence - then we will be talking. They have something to sell, and we want to buy those things.

The elephant is dharmic.

[ramana]

This is from the Great Gamesman himself!

Russia and Central Asia By Lord Curzon.

Will post in e-books thread also.

[Samay]

Indian Diaspora in Central Asia and its Trade