Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 35041
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby shiv » 04 Mar 2009 17:45

brihaspati wrote:Following on from above, anything within modern democratic political practice that India can do goes in favour of this Pakistani agenda. If India concedes, and allows increasing self-assertion, immunity and power to "Muslims" as distinct "Islamic" identity and source of political power, this raises confidence in the propaganda that Islam is destined to rule and the demand for absolute power is the right thing to insist on, as obviously the kaffirs are weak and submissive indicating Allah's will that kaffirs should be subjugated. If India resists, through democratic and legal political framework, then it lends strength to the propaganda that until and unless Islam becomes the supreme state authority, Muslims remain vulnerable to "discrimination" in the sense htat their legitimate aspiration for supreme dominance will be thwarted. Moreover provisions for such democratic and legal resistance can then be represented as an obstruction, and unIslamic.


Excellent analysis and replies - that seemed to come without hesitation from you.

Another possibilty is a civilizational attack on Islam itself...using Pakistan as the excuse. Only fear of treading on religious sensitivities causes hesitation while Pakistan has given itself the advantage of NOT suffering from religious sensitivities of this sort.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 05 Mar 2009 00:08

If TSP gets dismantled then it will dent the "force of history". The dismantlement doesnt have to involve re-conquest or re-incorporation of the constituent pieces in to India. I think the forces that led to the foramtion of TSP were revisionist and were a last ditch stand against the Indianisation of Islam. I had argued in earlier yeaars about how the poltical center for Islam has been shifting Eastwrds except for the uncharacteristic Westward drift under the four pious/rightly guided Caliphs. So even the creation of TSP was against the force of history!

brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 05 Mar 2009 02:43

Shivji and Ramanaji, thanks for giving some new angles to chew on.

It does appear to be the eastward-drift case for Islam. But there were two specific geo-economic contexts. In the period concerned, the economic powerhouse was in the east. It was the East that essentially produced the surplus to be consumed by the elite of the rest of the Eurasian world. The connective portions - the islands on sea-routes and infrastructure on overland trade routes lived off primarily by taking a cut off this pure process of circulation between the economic power centre and the then periphery.
If for some reason the flow of balancing surplus from the periphery (to pay for the high-value products of the centre) dried up, any non-producing connective group would push towards the centre to gain control of the centre to survive. I guess this is what happened after the decline of the Western Roman empire and the relative decline of the eastern empire too. The climatic disruptions between 500-800 C.E. could have played their part in the decreasing demand from the west or less robust agricultural areas.

But even the declining West managed to crush the advance of Islam into Europe, which relatively economically stronger South failed, and the strong Far East still managed. But the process of entering the subcontinental powerhouse was perhaps in a sense also process of decline of Islam. We can compare this to the classic guerrilla theory of allowing the enemy to penetrate deep into your territory where you chew him up slowly piece by piece - but the territory in this case is an ideological one. So we can perhaps compare the difference between the western and eastern end of the economic swing as two different ideological warfare styles : the west stops the enemy at the border - the east opts for the guerrilla tactics. The west uses its pagan past and its newfound revealed fervor to stop encroachment of "enemy" ideology at the gates - the east decides to allow the "enemy" ideology in and destroy it through digestion. But it is possible that this is not done consciously, probably not done consciously at all - but something in the trajectory of the society concerned that built this attitude into them.

My hypothesis would be extreme poverty or extreme prosperity, both will give the "guerrila" attitude towards hostile ideologies, and middle road levels would give rise to "stopping the enemy at the gates" attitude. Both will have socio-economic reasons to be less obsessed with ideology and therefore lack strong unified ideological centres comparable to having a strong military of a national core. In such cases, faced with a "more well equipped, determined, and better organized" enemy, the classic strategy that develops is the "guerrilla" resistance, and the same happens in the ideological arena too. It is the middle roader who needs and has time for strong "ideological" centres, and uses this to stop the "enemy" at the gates.

Now the allowing in the "guerrilla" case, is possibly passive. So things can change once the hostile ideology comes in. If the new ideology proves attractive enough, it may replace all the pre-existing ones - if not it will begin to be slowly digested beyond recognition. I would rather think that the Islamic heartland now shows extremes of poverty and prosperity, and India is now in the middle shelf. It is perhaps natural for India now to develop the "stop at the border" attitude and a reverse process of "expansion". It may seem contradictory to my other comments about increasing Jihadization - but in a long term sense they are not contradictory. The increasing Jihadization is the symbol of a panic reaction from those parts of the Islamic world which realize the slide into extremes of "poverty/prosperity" and its potential dangers for their way of life.

svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14223
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby svinayak » 05 Mar 2009 03:07

brihaspati wrote:Shivji and Ramanaji, thanks for giving some new angles to chew on.

It does appear to be the eastward-drift case for Islam. But there were two specific geo-economic contexts.

You are doing good. You need to focus on the "force of History" and how Islam and Muslims look at it. Read some books on it. Waliullah and Sirhindi is important who saw the demise of Caliphate and Islamic dominance in the world affairs in 1600s and 1700s itself.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 05 Mar 2009 03:16

There is something in what you say about India drawing its enemies inside. When the frontier is breached at Khyber, the Indics combat the 'other' at Panipat even in Maratha times (3rd battle of Panipat). Yes India did envelope and assimilate its conquerors but the colonial tinkering with the ideologies for their own geo-political puroposes (Deobandi and Wahabi mollycoddling) has led to the reversal force of history in modern times. In fact this reversed flow is being presented as the true flow of the force of history. :(

BTW the West was on the rise only after Islam had gone thru its Arabic phase, Periso-Arabic and then the Seljuk Turkic phase. What Islamization of Middle East did was to end the scourge of Persia towards Mediterranean just as Orthodox Russia ended the other scourge of the horde from Central Asia. It was the elimination of the twin scourges that allowed the rise of Europe. And the paradox is the Central Asians even adopted Islam and thus got pacified to kismet!

brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 06 Mar 2009 01:20

From the ideological viewpoint, just as in the case of food, perhaps not all end-products of digestion should be retained within the body and excreted. Allowing Islamic components to infiltrate and then get digested into forms unrecognizable should then be reapplied to the infiltrators. If it is the Islam or EJ inspired effects or elements absorbed into the Indic, and has become the modern Indic - there should not be any problem in imposing this back on the inflitrating elements?

samuel
BRFite
Posts: 818
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 08:52

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby samuel » 30 Mar 2009 05:32

Is anyone interested in writing a computational model for the Afpak scenario involving AFPAK, IR, US, UK, RUS, CHN, IND? If necessary, we could increase the state size to all nations in CAR and even the far east. This is a direct offshoot of questions in the future strat thread.

We could develop a model by
a) articulating strategic objectives for individual nations.
b) developing modes of interaction between nations with consequences, in points.
c) a fitness measure on points that becomes probability of attaining goals.
d) strategy for increasing (relative) fitness.

We can use model to ask some questions:
For example, if India were able to hold China by dangling "Aksai Chin for Tawang," hold the north in Afg, have back ups through to RU and IR, can it pincer PoK successfully?

What games can India win?

Anyone want to have a go. It will take a few weeks of work, I think.
S

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 30 Mar 2009 05:34

Please lead the faithfuls to light. How is it done?



vadivelu
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 24
Joined: 17 Mar 2009 07:38

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby vadivelu » 30 Mar 2009 08:01

I am going to be excoriated for saying this and perhaps even banned.

This thread is a waste of bandwidth and an exercise in Indian mental masturbation.

As Shiv once scolded me this needs to be in the nukkad thread.

What is the relevance to strategic relations and International relations?

Mathematical modeling of Geostrategic dynamics?? Bah humbug.

Why do desis indulge in such mental flatulence that will have no value to realities?

Geostrategic dynamics for the Indian subcontinent rests on the ability of India to keep its populace from being terrorized by a State it brushes off frivolously as a failed state.

Pardon my arrogance but the four or five of you bloviating here should form a private club and indulge in such mental exercise of inanity.

samuel
BRFite
Posts: 818
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 08:52

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby samuel » 30 Mar 2009 08:21

We have been gaming potential scenarios in the geostrat thread, but it may be useful to look at the last two papers for hints for modeling the great game before we generalize from there.

One thing that we run the danger of is to get overwhelmed by the state-space (too many actors, factors and so on) too soon. So, it may be useful to start from idealized versions and hopefully some structure will emerge from the simulations.

If there are volunteers interested in individual tasks, like write a "TSPA agent," or define engagement rules, I can focus on the shell for the simulations. If we can develop an open-source distributed version that can compete (in terms of dimensionality) with US establishment versions, it will certainly be a great tool to release out into the community.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 30 Mar 2009 23:05

You always ahve the option to ignore the tread. Its not like you are paying for the forum membership. If people want to discuss something what makes you come and tell them to desist? What goes your father or in hindi Aap ka baap ka khya jata?

samuel
BRFite
Posts: 818
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 08:52

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby samuel » 01 Apr 2009 20:43

RamaY, thanks for email! I'll sum up tasks here in a bit. But if you can get your hands on UML-2 installations and use the eclipse-IDE (if you are ITsavvy), then we are off to a splendid start.
S

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 02 Apr 2009 01:19

The Atlantic article provides an idea on agent based modeling and its early history.

Seeing around corners

V_Raman
BRFite
Posts: 408
Joined: 04 Sep 2008 22:25

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby V_Raman » 02 Apr 2009 01:59

shiv wrote:
brihaspati wrote:Following on from above, anything within modern democratic political practice that India can do goes in favour of this Pakistani agenda. If India concedes, and allows increasing self-assertion, immunity and power to "Muslims" as distinct "Islamic" identity and source of political power, this raises confidence in the propaganda that Islam is destined to rule and the demand for absolute power is the right thing to insist on, as obviously the kaffirs are weak and submissive indicating Allah's will that kaffirs should be subjugated. If India resists, through democratic and legal political framework, then it lends strength to the propaganda that until and unless Islam becomes the supreme state authority, Muslims remain vulnerable to "discrimination" in the sense htat their legitimate aspiration for supreme dominance will be thwarted. Moreover provisions for such democratic and legal resistance can then be represented as an obstruction, and unIslamic.


Excellent analysis and replies - that seemed to come without hesitation from you.

Another possibilty is a civilizational attack on Islam itself...using Pakistan as the excuse. Only fear of treading on religious sensitivities causes hesitation while Pakistan has given itself the advantage of NOT suffering from religious sensitivities of this sort.


i personally believe that this attack will happen soon in the next 5 years. india, imho, has no other option. it is an existensial threat and indians (since mahabharatham)will act only in that case.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 01 May 2009 22:14

For starters to get acqauinted with the process I thought we can start with India-Sri Lanka GSD model.

The actors/agents are:

Sri Lanka govt
Sri Lanka society
Sri Lanka Tamils
Indian Govt
Indian Tamils
Indian Tamilnadu Govt
US govt
TSP govt
TSPA
Western European Nations: Norway, Sweden and Dutch

PRC is a hidden player.

So what do we need to create the inputs for the model.

And for ref i want to capture this x-post for the PAk-Af-India GSD model.

RamaY wrote:Sudeepj,

:lol: Welcome to the discussion. You are not late to the party. We just started to define the problem for what it truly is.

You could be right that it is the nature of partition, in that the peripheral provinces were carved out of United India to become Pakistan, that left the 'hard line Muslim' areas within new India. The Muslim population spread in United India ensured that some elements would remain in post-partition India no matter what the composition of Pakistan to be.

I tried to graph an alternative scenario in below map. What would have been the fate of Pakistan in such a scenario? Would it have been good for India? Could Pakistan escape the manipulation by external powers?

Image



In today’s scenario, trying to connect IMs with Pakistan is a mistake IMO. Pakistan and IMs are two DIFFERENT PROBLEMS.

w.r.t Pakistan:

First India must reintegrate POK thus gaining access to CAR and split PRC-PAK physical connection. India must pay any price to achieve this. This would ensure that the baton-of-Pakistan is not passed from US to another (perceived/convenient) future power the way it was passed from UK to US after 1971.

Secondly India must overtly support and encourage Baluchi and Sindh independent movements to avert talibanization of these provinces. India should offer political and moral support to these independent movements. Act like a world power if needed and provide material support as well.

w.r.t IMs:

There should be a concerted effort by nationalistic leaders to reconnect IMs to their Hindu roots. There is nothing left in Pakistan (if there is any to begin with) for IMs to hope for. Meaningful accommodation within Indian constitution, culture, and society can be used as a carrot for IMs to revert back to Hindu civilization. For example one can offer educational and employment reservations to IMs who revert back to a special Hindu caste. There is no compulsion about this and whoever want to remain a Muslim can remain so without any special rights or sops under Indian constitution.

The pseudo-seculars and communists and foreign-media must be coerced, with force if needed, to comply with this vision.

Simultaneously ensure that foreign-funds are not allowed to any religious institution, Hindu or Christian or Muslim.

The key is to separate these two issues. The psec political parties, dhimmedia, wkk, and foreign masters want to keep this hypothetical connection between PHUKAF and IM in Indian mind so it falters to act on either of them with clarity and vigor.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 01 May 2009 23:39

Tutorial on Agent based Modeling and Simulation

Tutorial pdf


Google Links


need to find some good software.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 02 May 2009 00:03

Samuel, What do you think of MASON from GMU? To me it seesm promising as its a higher level language and GMU has a good political science dept and law school!

http://www.cs.gmu.edu/~eclab/projects/mason/

And folks if we get concurrence I would like a team to be setup to use this software.

Thanks, ramana

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 02 May 2009 00:10

Over the week I met a poli sci major who worked on the question of EU integration for his masters thesis in the late 80s!

He said since they didnt have data on how they will interact politicially he used the data on how their economies interacted as part of Common Market and extrapolated to the then future EU. And he was pleased to note his thesis was shown to be right with time.

A very big honcho now.

My point of reconuting this encounter is that it works!

sivabala
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 83
Joined: 01 Dec 2008 10:55

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby sivabala » 02 May 2009 00:20

ramana wrote:Tutorial on Agent based Modeling and Simulation
Tutorial pdf
Google Links
need to find some good software.

This link could be of help.
http://www.cs.ucsb.edu/~cse/StochKit/index.html

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 02 May 2009 00:27

sivabala, At first glance the Stochkit is good for stochastice processes in chemical reactions and not for social systems. But will differ to Samuel as he is the math guru in this area.

Looks like SWARM is good rival.

http://www.swarm.org/index.php/Swarm_main_page


The need is a widely supported free tool with models in political analysis so that there is support widely available.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 02 May 2009 02:36

Another approach is the Dr Barry Hughes supported IFS at Uty of Denver

http://www.ifs.du.edu/ifs/index.aspx

Take a look here for India

http://www.ifs.du.edu/ifs/frm_CountryProfile.aspx

brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 03 May 2009 20:46

trying out MASON. will post later about how it turns out

samuel
BRFite
Posts: 818
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 08:52

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby samuel » 03 May 2009 21:11

The most general scheme for us would be to be able to code up
a) nominal individual behaviors
b) interactions
c) timing diagrams -- discrete events
d) goals
e) spatial grids
and so on.


The great thing about simulators like the one from GMU is that they can do some idealized simulations, like heat bugs, and I will wait for Brihaspati to say more, but I am a little skeptical how far that will go.

UML2.0 on the other hand is general, too general in fact requiring a lot of setup time that may be un-necessary for hawk and dove or slightly more complicated scenarios. So that might make some of these other simulators more attractive. I'll stick to uml presently, till I hear otherwise.

S

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 04 May 2009 09:40

Samuel What do we need to model the Indo-Sri Lankan dynamic? Or Indo-Mynamar to get started?

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 13 May 2009 21:23

A 50 page pdf on Known Unknowns from US War College.

Please read to see how to think about future.

RamaY
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17260
Joined: 10 Aug 2006 21:11
Location: http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby RamaY » 14 May 2009 05:35

samuel-ji,

Refreshing my UML basics. Please send me if you have any trial scenarios so I can check if I got the basics correct.

shiv wrote:...
Another possibilty is a civilizational attack on Islam itself...using Pakistan as the excuse. Only fear of treading on religious sensitivities causes hesitation while Pakistan has given itself the advantage of NOT suffering from religious sensitivities of this sort.


Or what if someone uses this Phuk-Af "Ideology+foot-soldiers" and turn them westwards on the pretext to purify the wells of power and then destroy this agent on that pretext???

I was thinking about this for a while... and I got this crazy thought!!!

If I am a strategist with sufficient resources, I would setup expendable agents in key strategic cross sections. I would use these agents to harass the regional competitors by creating chaos in my agent-area in a way that the chaos spills over into the agent’s neighborhood. I can keep doing this as long as possible, and I can destroy (or allow it to be destroyed) the agent if necessary in the event that my adversary became my friend over time or agent becomes useless. I would ensure that the destruction of my agent is executed in such a way that my competitors would be occupied with the cleanup process.

When I see the map, I can see such agents in key civilizational cross-roads who are being controlled-by and manipulated-by key world players.

does this makes sense?

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 14 May 2009 07:14

RamaY, Try the Sri lanka scenario above for starters.

samuel
BRFite
Posts: 818
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 08:52

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby samuel » 14 May 2009 08:22

Folks,

I am set with UML2. I am using eclipse gannymede with emf, uml and uml diagrams.
I am presently developing class diagrams (entities).
to give you an idea:

The world is represented in as cells. Each cell is approx. 50kmx50km. Each cell has attributes: population, culture, religion.

A "nation" is an object that owns cells (e.g. taliban is a nation, sri lanka is, ltte is, india is).
It has goals for each of these cells. It has resources, partners (-1= enemy...+1=alliance) with other nations per cell. It has a set of actions available to it in each cell.

There is an environment, the oracle, that produces consequences when two or more nations act on cells.

So, this is the nuts and bolts level where work is needed in creating the first layer of this virtual world: class diagrams. Can you propose an alternate view, in abstract, so we can finalize.

if ppl want to know how to get to uml/eclipse let me know.

S

mohan
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 47
Joined: 15 Jun 2000 11:31

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby mohan » 14 May 2009 09:28

samuel wrote:Folks,

I am set with UML2. I am using eclipse gannymede with emf, uml and uml diagrams.
I am presently developing class diagrams (entities).
to give you an idea:
.
.
.
.
.
.if ppl want to know how to get to uml/eclipse let me know.

S


Hi Samuel,

I don't have a lot of programming experience (dabbled in LISP & Python for some small programs I needed for my work), but I'm trying to get up to speed with UML.

I have downloaded Eclipse Modelling Tools (http://www.eclipse.org/downloads/downlo ... -win32.zip)

I hope this is the right one. I am also going through the tutorials for UML2, but would appreciate any pointers to basic tutorials for both UML2 as well as eclipse, before I begin my headlong dive into the models themselves.

I am reading the ABMS tutorial that Ramana posted to get some idea of what I am getting myself into.

Regards,
Mohan

RamaY
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17260
Joined: 10 Aug 2006 21:11
Location: http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby RamaY » 14 May 2009 18:53

ramana wrote:RamaY, Try the Sri lanka scenario above for starters.


Ramana-garu,

I will start working on it today. I found Eclipse a little hard to learn, NetLogo appeared more intuitive to me. Irrespective of the tool, I will work on the model first.

Do you think it is a good idea we post the working models here or communicate thru emails?

BTW: Thanks for the ABM tutorial. It is very helpful.

Thanks

samuel
BRFite
Posts: 818
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 08:52

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby samuel » 14 May 2009 20:11

Mohan,

RamaY seems to like "NetLogo," so maybe that is something that could work for you. I am quite comfortable with eclipse and use it routinely for all coding work. If you want to go this route, then you have a bit of setup to get started:
Look at: http://www.aass.oru.se/~fpa/teaching/In ... clipse.pdf
Look at: http://www.vogella.de/articles/UML/article.html as an overview.

Once you get that far, you are ready to start creating diagrams.

But, first, the purpose, at least as I see it, is to develop a framework for geostrategic modeling that a variety of "thinkers" can then use to create scenarios and worlds and understand and control their evolution.

Second, to build the model, we choose uml2 because it allows us to create structure, behavior and interaction in very general terms and this is useful create geospatial, dynamical, and game elements in our model. There are partial things that are easily available. For example, if we assumed there was no geospatial element and there was no dynamics, but rather just a game, then we have interesting things like excel spreadsheets to model games (hawks/doves etc.). Much can be learned from that. Geospatial representations can be easily had in things like Arcview or other GIS software, but it has been difficult to embed games (though some dynamics is now possible). Similarly, if you just wanted to do dynamics, what happens when n-bodies apply some control laws, then you could simply do it in matlab. Putting all these three together, so that there is an environment, there are events, there are actions there is interaction and there are games is what requires a more generic modeling framework and uml comes very close to doing that. But, as with many things, the increase in flexibility comes with an increase in learning curve. That is ok, I think, because I am not pressed for time, just yet.

Have a look at how to create various kinds of diagrams, e.g. http://www.agilemodeling.com/essays/umlDiagrams.htm

Once we have a reasonable set of tools at hand, both modeling and learning the toolkit goes hand in hand.

How are we to model then and this is where everybody needs to chime in, in terms of a generic systems architecture, which is at a slightly "lower" level than "India takes Hambanthota, Hu Jintao pisses in his pants" level. This is simple things.
Structure: What is the domain, how big must each cell represent. What does each cell contain, who owns this cell etc. These are just creating various classes.
Behavior: How do attributes in a cell change. What is a goal, how is it represented. What kind of actions are available to make a goal. etc.
Interaction: There is a master clock. There is a "script" of events. The clock goes, events happen, agents behave; the environment monitors the behavior, arbitrates, scores and redistributes attributes etc.

At that point we have an easy way to run scenarios.

Much of this work could already be done, and if that's true, we should go there. I haven't though may be what RamaY suggests is a possibility. But you should look at the use of uml2 to model the great game, shown in this thread or somewhere else, earlier. That got my attention.

S

samuel
BRFite
Posts: 818
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 08:52

Fist Steps

Postby samuel » 14 May 2009 23:57

Image

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 15 May 2009 02:05

so what are attributes, operations, classes for each player? What inputs are needed? A series of statements that you convert into the UML ?

samuel
BRFite
Posts: 818
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 08:52

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby samuel » 15 May 2009 02:35

Yes, that's about right. On another note, I started with a "simple" SL scenario, but it quickly blew up; too many actors who could not be ignored as a factor. So, it ended up what it ended up with, we can change that.

-- I suggest we have a look at the great game uml diagrams in the paper that was linked in here some time ago. It's here somewhere.
-- I am in touch with the people behind it and working with them. I will post a simplified version here so all interested can synchronize.
-- For our simple game, we need
a) Agents (actors) -- we will assume these are all countries and do not individuals.
b) Goals for agents -- we will assume these are "geographical" in nature, initially.
c) Associations between agents: What type of assosications exist?
d) Metrics on the system: What about this network or model do we want to measure?
e) Actions by agents: What can an agent do?

All these become part of the internal model for agents and get socked away as attributes...that you don't worry about.

But, if someone wants to take the time to write up a list of actors (for our purpose countries), and a list of goals for them (Hu Jintao craps in his pants), Associations (I like PoK), metrics (how stable are things, who's winning), actions (increase relationship, grab land) we can take a step forward.

S

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 15 May 2009 02:42

How about we start with Indo-SL game as a learning experience. Yes there will be many actors but we can simplify by merging groups.

As I posted earlier

The actors/agents are:

Sri Lanka govt
Sri Lanka society
Sri Lanka Tamils
Indian Govt
Indian Tamils
Indian Tamilnadu Govt
US govt
TSP govt
TSPA
Western European Nations: Norway, Sweden and Dutch

PRC is a hidden player.

So what do we need to create the inputs for the model.


So 11 agents to sue the model language. We need to define what the interests of these 11 agents are. Please give us an example of what is suitable input.

From Balbir Punj's article in Pioneer, 15 May 2009

The Tamil problem in Sri Lanka has many twists and turns and one must admit that the LTTE is a dreaded terrorist organisation. It has has been long detested by many leaders of Tamil Nadu. India did send its Army to Sri Lanka once to enforce the peace agreement that Rajiv Gandhi had negotiated with then Sri Lankan President Jayawardene in the 1980s. But the result was disastrous. The LTTE itself conspired with the then Sri Lankan Prime Minister Premadasa to whip up anti-India sentiments, and ultimately New Delhi had to withdraw its Army.

That the same LTTE then turned against Premadasa when he became President and had him assassinated is another example of how complicated the issue of Sri Lankan Tamils is. The event should serve as a stern warning to Tamil politicians to be responsible in their response to the current situation in Sri Lanka.

samuel
BRFite
Posts: 818
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 08:52

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby samuel » 15 May 2009 04:22

Actors: GOV_SL, SOC_SL, TAM_SOC_SL, TAM_SOC_IN, GOV_IN, TAM_GOV_IN, GOV_US, GOV_TSP, ARMY_TSPA, GOV_BLONDE, GOV_CHN, LTTE_SL

Given that goals can be arbitrary statements, we need to discretize them into categories, e.g. CAPTURE, DESTROY, DIMINISH, CONTROL, INFLUENCE. You can come up with such categories of goals, start small. There can be compound goals with conjunctions etc. I will only take propositional forms for now, though later we will allow First order (predicate) logic. Mohan, all your lisp experience comes in handy!

GOV_IN DIMINISH (GOV_CHN CONTROL GOV_SL)
(goi wants to diminish chinese control over sl).
GOV_SL DESTROY LTTE_SL
GOV_SL CONTROL TAM_SOC_SL AND DIMINISH (TAM_SOC_IN CONTROL TAM_SOC_SL)
GOV_IN DIMINISH (LTTE_SL CONTROL TAM_SOC_IN)

If you can read out these statements, then you've got it.

So,
a) Define atomic or primitive goals. These goals will have "methods" that will be used by actors to generate "behavior"

b) Define compound objectives, which will become entities in their own right, egs above.

RamaY
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17260
Joined: 10 Aug 2006 21:11
Location: http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby RamaY » 19 May 2009 21:28

Shiv-ji and others,

I was playing with one of the pre-existing models in NetLogo and found an interesting aspect.

This model has two groups. Each group prefers to have x and y percent of its neighbors of same kind. If they are unhappy, the try to relocate. I set the model to have x to be happy with at least one neighbor of its kind and y to be editable (while the game runs). I set the y population to be 20% of total population.

While running the model, the game reached an equilibrium state of ~2% unhappy population with y set to 20% neighborhood preference.
The game reaches to ~10% unhappy population level when the y is set to 20-50% preference level. The population is moderately distributed.
But once the y’s neighborhood preference crosses 50%, there is a visible consolidation of population grouping and the unhappy population level reached 7-8%.

The most interesting aspect is when I moved the y’s neighborhood preference beyond 70% (that is y prefers 70% of its neighbors to be of its kind or it will be unhappy), the population consolidation (all x in one place and y in one place) is destroyed and y’s were everywhere. And the overall unhappy population percentage jumped to >40%

I am working on the model to include some of the logic you guys put in the first page of this thread. I will send this model to you guys so you can infer the behaviors in the context of this and other threads.

Thanks

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50624
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 27 May 2009 01:20

I think one should become acquainted with this 106 page pdf on

DCDC Report on Global Trends 2007- 2036


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Dileep, Google [Bot] and 29 guests