Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby subodh » 12 Aug 2011 01:15

Ah, yes, no 'rangers in danger' I should have said, I guess.

To my layman reading - there seems to be still a lot of confusion around this - why send in this big a seal team for this local skirmish that the troops on the ground seemed to be handling ok? Was there a bigger target there?

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby CRamS » 12 Aug 2011 01:34

rohitvats,

can you post the link to Savarkar's book

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby ramana » 12 Aug 2011 01:37



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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby abhishek_sharma » 12 Aug 2011 07:59

The Taliban and Air Control in Afghanistan: Bruce Riedel

The Taliban’s other patron is the same ISI that helped the mujahedin thirty years ago and has been helping the Taliban in Afghanistan since their creation in the early 1990s. Pakistan provides the Taliban with not only passive support in the provision of safe havens; it has also provided active support over the last decade with training, expertise and sanctuary for Taliban senior leaders. But it has not provided the high-tech equivalent of the Stinger, knowing that would be too provocative to Washington. Pakistan’s generals are convinced time is on their side in Afghanistan and that war weariness in America and Europe will deliver their Taliban clients victory sooner or later. They see no reason to take unnecessary risks.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby ramana » 12 Aug 2011 08:33

There goes my theory of SAM for shooting down the Chinook!

So what Rediel is saying is that the TSPA/ISI is afraid of Wrath of Khan and is self restrained in not providing game cahnger weapons to the Taliban in Af-Pak. However at dead of night, if a helicopter gets shot down who is willing to say it was with a SAM. Not US in order to preserve the aura of the Wrath, not ISI which doesn't want to invite scrutiny.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby habal » 12 Aug 2011 08:35

It may be an inside-job to prevent any details of Abottabad op from going out, ie if indeed those were the same seals.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby ramana » 12 Aug 2011 08:46

From WIKI:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_av ... fghanistan

See how many times an RPG downed a Chinook.

A cursory look atleast three four not including the August 6th incident.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby CRamS » 12 Aug 2011 08:47

ramana wrote:There goes my theory of SAM for shooting down the Chinook!

So what Rediel is saying is that the TSPA/ISI is afraid of Wrath of Khan and is self restrained in not providing game cahnger weapons to the Taliban in Af-Pak. However at dead of night, if a helicopter gets shot down who is willing to say it was with a SAM. Not US in order to preserve the aura of the Wrath, not ISI which doesn't want to invite scrutiny.


This is vintage art of spinning on display. It depends on a provocative act being provocative enough to be detrimental to US interests. The same "passive" support BS would be provocative enough for US to level ISI headquarters in Rawilpindi if it were in US interests. I mean, Talibunnies could not have conducted this attack without massive ISI logistical and intelligence help, whether or not the actual shots were fired by a "provocative" weapon. I mean the entire AfPak will be solved in a heartbeat if US tackes the real source of the problem, and yet we see this kind of hair-splitting justification for not taking on TS PA.

I recall several years ago Bush Sr when he invaded Panama, the first stupid specious reason he and Al Quailin Paveel (his joint chiefs of staff at that time) gave was an American was harassed by Noriega's henchmen at a check point in Panama, and Bush Sr said he will not let that go unanswered. Some lame excuse to invade Panama because it was in US interests.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby SSridhar » 12 Aug 2011 10:46

ramana wrote:SSridhar,
Can you upload your presentation on Abdr Rehman to Taliban in slideshare or scribd and post the link for forum education?

Thanks, ramana


Ramana,it is available here.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby ramana » 12 Aug 2011 19:36

SSridhar wrote:
ramana wrote:SSridhar,
Can you upload your presentation on Abdr Rehman to Taliban in slideshare or scribd and post the link for forum education?

Thanks, ramana


Ramana,it is available here.


Yogi and others, Please go thru this presentation and ask your questions.

SSridhar did an excellent job of summarizing modern Afghan history till theTaliban emerged.

many folks all over have borrowed this pitch.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby Y I Patel » 13 Aug 2011 05:18

Thank you everyone for your responses, in this thread and others. Now it is time go back into lurker mode and digest the information in the links provided.

All best!

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby Philip » 14 Aug 2011 13:57

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... liban.html

"Never trust the Taliban..".Sound advice,as the Taliban are nothing but the creation of the Pakis and their patrons,the Saudis.Yopucanttrust them either,but tell that to Uncle sam,who keeps on getting shafted by his favourite rent-boy.

Mr Saleh was a vociferous critic of Pakistan's interference during his spying job, and some thought he was pushed to the margins of power and then forced to resign because of pressure from Islamabad.


Afghanistan's former spy chief: 'Never trust the Taliban'
Amrullah Saleh, the urbane former head of Afghanistan's spy agency, tells Ben Farmer why it is wrong to talk to the Taliban.

Xcpt:
By Ben Farmer, Kabul
13 Aug 2011
He may no longer be Afghanistan's spymaster general, but in the new career he has moved into, Amrullah Saleh must retain many of the trappings from his former job.

Visitors to the Kabul home of the intelligence boss-turned-politician encounter checkpoints from at least a block away, while outside his villa, lean, purposeful guards from his native Panjshir Valley eye approaching strangers warily.

Like any official who spent six years at the sharp end of one of the most ruthless intelligence wars in the world, the 39-year-old former head of the Afghan domestic intelligence service has gained his fair share of enemies.

But since quitting his post last year, he now has even more reason to fear – after forming an influential new opposition group that has denounced the plans of President Hamid Karzai and the West for a political settlement with the Taliban.

"Very simply, the Taliban are our killers, they are not our brothers," Mr Saleh told The Sunday Telegraph last week.

As head of national directorate of security the until last summer, he ran an apparatus of agents, paramilitaries, secret prisons and informants that was considered one of the few effective, if sometimes brutal, arms of the Kabul government.

It was his job to understand the Taliban and know more about the shadowy army of ruthless fighters and their fundamentalist conservative creed than anyone else inside the Afghan government – and he did not like what he found.

Now he is using every opportunity to proclaim his view that unless they become a purely political force and lay down their weapons for good, an almost impossibly remote prospect, the Taliban are not to be trusted.

"The Taliban say they have a licence from God to kill, to torture, to marginalise women," he warned.

"That we don't accept. No Taliban will say my licence comes from Mullah Omar, their leader: they say my licence comes from God. Settlement with that type of group is a disaster for Afghanistan."

His view is highly inconvenient for the West, as Nato hastens to find a plausible political strategy that will permit it to exit from Afghanistan with some dignity attached over the next few years.

His warning comes in a bloody month for the coalition and a week after the Taliban shot down a Chinook helicopter killing 38 in Nato's single deadliest incident.

While it was disclosed last week that secret exploratory talks between a senior Taliban aide and the Americans had stalled when details were leaked, London and Washington remain convinced negotiations are the answer to ending the violent quagmire.

Mr Saleh was one of the West's most trusted allies, and his colleagues in the CIA and MI6 viewed him as one of their most reliable partners.

In particular, he was considered a cleaner pair of hands than many of Afghanistan's other pro-Western strongmen, such as President Karzai's half-brother Ahmed Wali Karzai, who was dogged by claims of involvement in drug-trafficking and murdered in Kandahar last month.

Mr Saleh was forced to resign along with his ally, the former interior minister Hanif Atmar, after the Taliban attacked a peace conference last summer – but while the official reason was because of the failure to prevent the assault, behind the scenes there had been growing tensions with Mr Karzai himself, whom Mr Saleh accuses of being not just corrupt, but also beholden to neighbouring Pakistan, the Taliban's chief sponsor.

Now free to speak his mind, the intervening months have seen him instead emerge as an outspoken opposition figure.

He is attempting to forge an anti-Taliban "grand coalition" of Afghans who fear their former allies in the West may end up handing power to the Taliban in their rush to leave Afghanistan.

Clean-shaven and wearing Italian-style loafers and a designer polo shirt, Mr Saleh looks surprisingly Western for a man steeped in the violent world of Afghan power politics, and has a reputation as an intellectual, rather than a bruiser.

Fluent in English, he could have walked into safe, well-paid employment in consultancy or academia after his last job, but has forsaken comfortable options for the "hard life" of Afghan politics.

"I could have opted for a very soft, very luxurious, very low-profile life occasionally talking to this think tank or that," he said.

"But I feel indebted to this country."

The coalition he is trying to forge with other opposition figures stands on twin platforms of government reform and a refusal to see concessions to the Taliban in the rush for an end to the war.

Fears that President Hamid Karzai was seeking a secret peace deal with the Taliban meant swathes of northern Afghanistan were "preparing for the worst" and beginning to rearm in anticipation of possible civil war, he warned.

Mr Karzai's overtures to his fellow ethnic Pashtuns, who dominate southern Afghanistan and have traditionally made up the bulk of the Taliban's ranks, have horrified the ethnic Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras of the north, who fought them during the 1990s.

They fear peace negotiations would only herald a murky deal between the presidential palace and their former foes, allowing the Taliban to recreate their Islamic emirate across southern Afghanistan.

The High Peace Council established by the president to pursue a transparent peace process was a sham, Mr Saleh alleged, with all genuine attempts at talks instead carried out privately by the palace.

"Mr Karzai is not representing Afghanistan in these talks," Mr Saleh said. "The mechanism he has established is operating in darkness."

Such a backdoor deal would "push us into civil strife" he added.

Both Britain and America are openly seeking a political settlement to the war, but Mr Saleh's comments underline the concerns of many Afghans who fear they will be sold out to speed a Nato exit.

The increasingly hard stance taken by communities in the north has hardened further with the Taliban assassination of several of their civil war-era leaders this year.

It has also raised the dreadful spectre of a return to the ethnic violence which ruined the country in the 1990s, with reports that some northern groups are already rearming as a contingency.

Mr Saleh worked as an aide to anti-Taliban Commander Ahmad Shah Massoud, but denies his bloc is in effect the remnants of the Northern Alliance warlords who swept the Taliban from power with US support in 2001.

However, the bloc is strongest in the Alliance's northern and north eastern heartlands and has little obvious support in the Pashtun south.

Central among his coalition's fears is the role of Pakistan in trying to secure power in the south for the Taliban.

Mr Saleh was a vociferous critic of Pakistan's interference during his spying job, and some thought he was pushed to the margins of power and then forced to resign because of pressure from Islamabad.

He said he and his allies were preparing for a worst-case scenario where the Taliban were allowed to keep southern provinces with "weapons and structure intact" after agreeing to a ceasefire with Mr Karzai.

"That will mean fragmentation of authority within Afghanistan, emergence of another state. In that situation we will rise," he declared. "It will only be a matter of time before Taliban jump into other areas."

He also has an unflattering analysis of the continuing Nato campaign and the efficacy of the "surge" of troops sent to Afghanistan by Barack Obama.

The Taliban were neither undefeated nor marginalised, and had retained everything they needed to continue their insurgency, he claimed.

Their leadership was safe, they had access to cash and they were being sheltered in Pakistan where they could plan attacks, operate hospitals and run training camps.

While American tactics of "clear, hold and build" had successfully cleared parts of Helmand and Kandahar, the later stages had failed. Mr Karzai's government had not filled the gap and the writ of the government had not been extended.

"What has been effectively disrupted is their third-tier Taliban, that is their fighting force. Taking into consideration the recruitment base of the Taliban and the size of the population from which they take their fighters, they can afford it."

Critics of Mr Saleh portray him as embittered at his loss of power and question his credibility in condemning the regime as corrupt when he spent years inside it. They also point out that his coalition seems weak and disorganised compared to other Afghan blocs.

But he claims that says more about Afghan politics than it does about his own appeal.

"We are not dominating the space, that is true," he concedes.

"You know why? I go to a district to mobilise the people: the governor is against us, the smugglers are against us, the Taliban are against us and we have no access to cash. The space for clean opposition politics is very little."

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby shyamd » 14 Aug 2011 14:51

Russia customs seizes Pak-bound military spares
They could have let it go after they found out. Wonder whats up.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby Airavat » 18 Aug 2011 09:08

kids as young as eight being trained to kill in Pakistan
Known as the Cubs of Waziristan, they are being schooled in the art of terrorism in the dusty valleys of the no-go tribal region between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The grim pictures are taken from a newly-released seven-minute video broadcast to jihadist websites. They are then seen firing pistols, assault rifles and machine guns at paper targets. One adult trainer boasts to the camera: “Here are the children of the Muslims, getting trained in weapons that special forces are trained in using.”

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby SSridhar » 18 Aug 2011 13:15

Watchout for Af-Pak turbulence - G.Parthasarathy
The Americans intend to end active combat operations in Afghanistan after 2014, and the Pakistanis have started pondering over what life would be like after that. Optimists, particularly from the military and jihadi groups, believe that American withdrawal will lead to the fulfilment of General Zia-ul-Haq's dream of a Pakistan blessed with “strategic depth”' extending beyond the Amu Darya and into Central Asia.

Others fear that with Taliban extremism already having spread from across the Durand Line into Punjab and even Karachi, the country is headed for what author Ahmed Rashid once described as a Descent into Chaos.

The CIA report, Global Trends 2015, noted even in December 2001: “Pakistan will not recover easily from decades of economic mismanagement, divisive politics and ethnic feuds. In a climate of continuing domestic turmoil, the Central Government's control will probably be reduced to the Punjab heartland and the economic hub of Karachi.”

PAKISTAN'S CALCULATIONS

Pakistan's military still believes that the Americans will meet the same fate as the Soviets did when confronted with the forces of “militant Islam” from across the Durand Line. There is nothing to indicate that Rawalpindi has any intention of ending its support for either the Taliban or the Haqqani network.

Both Mullah Omar and Sirajuddin Haqqani remain implacably opposed to American proposals on political “reconciliation” in Afghanistan. Neither of them has shown any sign of ending links with the Al Zawahiri-led Al Qaeda and its Chechen and Central Asian affiliates. Moreover, the Haqqani network unabashedly supports the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan, infuriating Pakistan's “all-weather friend,” China.

Pakistan's military has believed over the past few years that with the American economy in tatters and domestic opinion becoming increasingly hostile to growing casualties overseas, the Obama Administration will quit Afghanistan, paving the way for a Taliban takeover.

Another Pakistani calculation was that given their dependence on Pakistan's logistical support for supplies to their military in Afghanistan, the Americans were in no position to take coercive measures against Pakistan. These calculations have gone awry. It was the combined costs of war in Iraq (estimated at $806 billion) and the relatively less expensive war in Afghanistan ($444 billion over a decade) that were proving unaffordable to the US taxpayer.

While Americans have lost 1,760 soldiers in Afghanistan over a decade, their high casualties in Iraq, which included 4,474 killed in action, made the war in Iraq highly unpopular. Showing some intent to thwart Pakistani blackmail and threats of blocking supply routes, the Americans now move less than 35 per cent of their supplies through Pakistan, with the rest coming across their Northern Distribution Network, assisted by Russia and the Central Asian Republics. Two years ago, over 70 per cent of American supplies were routed through Pakistan.

Whether it is on the question of the secret approval it gave to American drone attacks on Pakistan territory, even as it raised a public hue and cry on the issue, or in its policy of providing shelter to Osama bin laden in Abbottabad, while claiming to be a loyal ally on America's “War on Terror”, the duplicity of the Pakistani military stands exposed. The Pakistan army is finding it difficult to defeat its erstwhile Pashtun protégés in the Tehriq-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan. There is, therefore, little prospect of its meeting American demands to act decisively against the followers of Mullah Omar and Sirajuddin Haqqani.

With Pakistan's Generals hell bent on retaining their jihadi assets in Afghanistan, on the one hand, and the US determined to ensure that the Afpak badlands straddling the Durand Line are not infested with anti-American Jihadis, on the other, the two “major non-NATO allies” appear set on a collision course, though with pretensions of seeking mutual understanding.

ANTI-TALIBAN CONSENSUS

The Russians have made it clear that their air-space and territory are available for American operations in Afghanistan against the Taliban, as long as they can jointly crackdown on production and smuggling of opium.

Unless there is a total meltdown in their economy, the Americans will retain a small, but significant military presence in Afghanistan, primarily for counter-terrorism, against groups operating across the Durand Line.

There are hints that their military presence in Afghanistan will also be geared to deal with any possible takeover of Pakistan's nuclear weapons by jihadi extremists, including such elements within Pakistan's much-vaunted military.

India should have no illusions that it can change the jihadi mindset of Pakistan's armed forces and should learn the right lessons from the heavy price the Americans have paid for their naiveté on the military mindset in Pakistan. The end-game in Afghanistan has only just begun. {It is a pity that GoI has to be constantly reminded, after 64 years of Independence and another 20 years of Muslim League treachery in the pre-Independence period, that we should not be naive vis-a-vis Pakistan}

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby ramana » 18 Aug 2011 19:19

SSridhar, The Pakis are playing one game and India is playing another. The Pakis are playing game of chicken and India is playing the game of repeated Prisoner's dilemma.

Meantime news from NoKo in Nightwatch of relevance to Pak nooks

Nightwatch 18 August 2011

North Korea-US/South Korea: North Korean state media published and broadcast the official foreign ministry denunciation of the allied exercise Ulji Freedom Guardian that began yesterday. The most annoying aspect of the exercise evidently is stated in the following excerpt from the foreign ministry statement.

"Particularly, it is a very alarming move for the United States to have a so-called special action unit with the task of searching and destroying our nuclear weapons, participate in these joint military exercises."

{With South Korea. Who knows if they are participating in joint exercises with ANA in Afghanistan and others in US?}

"The prevailing situation shows that the United States is aiming only at an opportunity to usurp our nuclear deterrence in a brigandish manner, and not at denuclearizing the Korean peninsula through dialogue and negotiations." 8)

Comment: The prospect that US special forces might hunt and seize North Korean nuclear weapons appears to have spooked North Korea. The killing of bin Laden probably reinforced their sense of unease. This statement appears to be the first denouncing a special action unit with such a mission. The statement does not convey a reassurance message that US special forces cannot succeed, which would seem to be required under the circumstances.



If even the NoKo is unsure of their clown jewels from the 40 thieves what hope does frontlying all lie have?

All this means is aggresive moves by US will and are driving the two minions/cretins to PRC for succour.

If push comes to shove US might suggest that PRC take back for safe keeping the clown jewels.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby Altair » 18 Aug 2011 19:22

Airavat wrote:kids as young as eight being trained to kill in Pakistan
Known as the Cubs of Waziristan, they are being schooled in the art of terrorism in the dusty valleys of the no-go tribal region between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The grim pictures are taken from a newly-released seven-minute video broadcast to jihadist websites. They are then seen firing pistols, assault rifles and machine guns at paper targets. One adult trainer boasts to the camera: “Here are the children of the Muslims, getting trained in weapons that special forces are trained in using.”


I saw a video of a 3 year old Paki girl who could barely speak spit at Jews and Hindus and that they can never be trusted because Allah told'em so in Quran. The parents were so proud of the "true muslim" girl. It is the culture of people for violence and hatred. We all know how entire civilizations vanished who indoctrined such culture. AoA!

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby Altair » 18 Aug 2011 19:36

ramana wrote:
If push comes to shove US might suggest that PRC take back for safe keeping the clown jewels.


ramana garu
I have a noob question.Why would PRC care to take them back? What is in it for the PRC? They would love to screw Unkil Sam in every way they can.
Altair

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby ramana » 18 Aug 2011 19:41

Because uncle has the screwdriver and the hammer to nail the screw.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby Altair » 18 Aug 2011 20:31

ramana wrote:Because uncle has the screwdriver and the hammer to nail the screw.

It would be interesting to see how that screwdriver would be in action when a dirty bum goes off in massaland.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby Prem » 18 Aug 2011 21:23

http://www.eurasiareview.com/uncle-sam- ... -17082011/
Uncle Sam And Pakistani Generals Sail Under False Colors In Afghanistan – Analysis

When foreign forces begin to retreat from Afghanistan, the war theatre will change its players from foreigners to Afghanis. The American withdrawal may well be the last testament to such a ritual in Afghanistan. Obama’s drawdown and transition policy of handing down responsibility to local security forces is unlikely to pay off. The government in Kabul seems balanced on a knife-edge and the volatile situation could get out of control.Besides Karzai’s dysfunctional government in Kabul, a direct support to the Taliban from next door, Pakistan has a devastating effect on Nato’s war in Afghanistan. Safe havens in Pakistani soil are strengthening the Taliban’s operational capabilities.
Above and beyond Western pressure, Pakistan continues to live at peace with al-Qaida affiliated militants. The Pakistani military believes that control over the Pashtun-dominated Taliban is tantamount to a compulsive insurance policy against disintegration of the country. Pakistani military and spy organization, the ISI knows the Afghans and Afghanistan much better than the Americans do. They know perfectly well that the Taliban will dominate Afghan politics in a post-Western Afghanistan.Worse still, Pakistan makes feverish attempts to keep the Taliban glued to the al-Qaida ideology for fear of spilling over nationalism into their ranks. In the ISI’s thinking, an al-Qaida affiliated Taliban is far less harmful to Pakistan than a Pashtun nationalist Taliban. Pakistan is using the Islamic card to prevent Pashtuns from going the way of the Baluchi separatists. Many political analysts remain ignorant about this crucial factor.In such a perilous situation, the only thing that can rescue Afghanistan from falling into a civil war and prevent a geopolitical disaster in Central Asia, is transparent and unmediated peace talk with the Taliban. Peace talk could detach the insurgency from dependence on Pakistan which is crucial for reducing Western casualties as well. Negotiations with the mediation of Pakistan have its own deadly perils, for Pakistani usual double games.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby RamaY » 18 Aug 2011 21:40

ramana wrote:If push comes to shove US might suggest that PRC take back for safe keeping the clown jewels.


I think this should be an acceptable compromise for India. Any n-threat from Pakis will be treated as n-blackmail from PRC itself.

Altair garu - Let PRC play the big-brother (they are wanna be G2 right) and take custody of the clown-jewels. That is like the proverbial monkey putting its hand in the jar.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby ramana » 18 Aug 2011 22:29

Prem wrote:http://www.eurasiareview.com/uncle-sam-and-pakistani-generals-sail-under-false-colors-in-afghanistan-analysis-17082011/
Uncle Sam And Pakistani Generals Sail Under False Colors In Afghanistan – Analysis

When foreign forces begin to retreat from Afghanistan, the war theatre will change its players from foreigners to Afghanis. The American withdrawal may well be the last testament to such a ritual in Afghanistan. Obama’s drawdown and transition policy of handing down responsibility to local security forces is unlikely to pay off. The government in Kabul seems balanced on a knife-edge and the volatile situation could get out of control.Besides Karzai’s dysfunctional government in Kabul, a direct support to the Taliban from next door, Pakistan has a devastating effect on Nato’s war in Afghanistan. Safe havens in Pakistani soil are strengthening the Taliban’s operational capabilities.
Above and beyond Western pressure, Pakistan continues to live at peace with al-Qaida affiliated militants. The Pakistani military believes that control over the Pashtun-dominated Taliban is tantamount to a compulsive insurance policy against disintegration of the country. Pakistani military and spy organization, the ISI knows the Afghans and Afghanistan much better than the Americans do. They know perfectly well that the Taliban will dominate Afghan politics in a post-Western Afghanistan.Worse still, Pakistan makes feverish attempts to keep the Taliban glued to the al-Qaida ideology for fear of spilling over nationalism into their ranks. In the ISI’s thinking, an al-Qaida affiliated Taliban is far less harmful to Pakistan than a Pashtun nationalist Taliban. Pakistan is using the Islamic card to prevent Pashtuns from going the way of the Baluchi separatists. Many political analysts remain ignorant about this crucial factor.In such a perilous situation, the only thing that can rescue Afghanistan from falling into a civil war and prevent a geopolitical disaster in Central Asia, is transparent and unmediated peace talk with the Taliban. Peace talk could detach the insurgency from dependence on Pakistan which is crucial for reducing Western casualties as well. Negotiations with the mediation of Pakistan have its own deadly perils, for Pakistani usual double games.


The analysis is Pak centric and looks at things thru Pak eyes.

The very fact that Taliban who are under control of TSP will be dominant will cause the non-Taliban Pashtuns, non-Pashtun Afghans to revolt. As it is non-Pashtun Afghans tolerate the non-Taliban rule in interests of keeping Afghanistan together. the decade of non Taliban rule under Karzai has re-opened their minds to the possiblities and they wont go back silently to Taliban mores.

Further the Taliban Islamists think Pakjab are not Islamist enough. An example is the TTP and its sway in FATA/WANA.

Its only the TSPA support that keeps them from sopreading their message East of the Sulieman mountains. If they consolidate in Afghanistan then they will spread their message. So either way TSPA will reap the whirlwind/khamsin of black turbans.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby CRamS » 18 Aug 2011 22:37

ramana:

What can one offer Talibunnies to entice them to let go off the noose that TSPA has around their necks?

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby RajeshA » 18 Aug 2011 23:02

CRamS wrote:ramana:

What can one offer Talibunnies to entice them to let go off the noose that TSPA has around their necks?

Their own land and riches, lots of riches!

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby Prem » 18 Aug 2011 23:28

RajeshA wrote:
CRamS wrote:ramana:
What can one offer Talibunnies to entice them to let go off the noose that TSPA has around their necks?

Their own land and riches, lots of riches!

Billion a year to them can unravel Poaqistan on our own pace. Talbunnies can play major role in the Contolled Collapse of Paupperland.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby RajeshA » 19 Aug 2011 00:10

Prem wrote:Billion a year to them can unravel Poaqistan on our own pace. Talbunnies can play major role in the Contolled Collapse of Paupperland.

Prem ji,

about an year ago, I wrote a few posts on the post-American scenario in Afghanistan:

Jul 02 2010
RajeshA wrote:Pakistan would soon find out, that when Americans leave Afghanistan and the Taliban wins there, it would mean curtains for Pakistan itself. Pakistan has control over the Taliban only as long as the Taliban are fighting NATO/ISAF/Americans. When the Taliban get their own country, Pakistan's influence would wither away, as the Taliban would get their own sources of financing and would not need any safe havens any more.

It is Pakistan, which needs to have a compliant Taliban, which needs to constantly interfere in the Taliban politics, to get strategic depth and avoid turmoil in Pakistan itself. Whoever is in power in Afghanistan, would have issues regarding borders with Pakistan. It is Pakistan which has no money for construction and commerce with Afghanistan and as such needs to keep Afghanistan weaker, poorer and less stable than itself. It is Pakistan, which has the lowest approval rating in Afghanistan.

India on the other hand is not saddled with all these restraints. For India it does not matter, who is in power in Afghanistan. We can be friends with anybody. We can be of assistance to anybody. If it is the Taliban, we can be friends with Taliban also, the same Taliban Pakistan put in power.

As Southern Afghanistan moves into Taliban hands, we should move proactively to get to know and befriend them. If some province's Governor, Taliban or just Pushtun, needs help for putting up some infrastructure, like roads, power stations, hospitals, administrative training, etc. India should be willing to provide it. There are so many Afghans who are crippled. This is one area, in which India can be forthcoming with providing prostheses. Even Taliban would welcome such assistance. India can give other forms of medical help including allowing the Afghan Taliban to come to India for medical treatment.

Now some people may consider the Taliban to be India's enemies. Well they are not. Only those who do Pakistan's bidding are India's enemies. It will indeed be far easier to put them away, if India's access to the Taliban were substantial. Indeed Pakistan would soon find out, that their own creation, Taliban, would prove to be far more dangerous to Pakistan, than Karzai's Govt. ever was, even with the 10,000 Indian consulates there.

India does not need to interfere in Afghanistan's politics. What we want is simple: neutralize Pakistan's influence over the Taliban, allowing the Taliban more leeway to continue their brand of expansion and politics deep into Pakjabi and TSPA territory. What we need is that TSPA remains busy on its Western Frontier and leaves Kashmir in peace. What we need is - open channels to power holders in Afghanistan at all levels.

It is easy for Taliban to get recognition in Islamabad but it is Delhi's recognition which would provide them with international legitimacy. The Taliban of today is far more savvy than it was in the 90s. So India does have something to give.

We should stop looking at the Taliban as the eternal hand-maiden of TSPA! And Ideology is just a word!

Aug 10 2010
RajeshA wrote:In the great Wheel of Time, American intervention was to indeed undermine Pakistan, not necessarily by design but by chance. American intervention have unleashed new forces in Pakistan, forces that are now beyond Pakistan's control. Pakistan is now riding the tiger, with 'Eat me' written on Pakistan's T-Shirt. Taliban will prove to be patriphagous.

So America has indeed done India a great favor in the end. India could not pull Pakistan to the left and make peace with it, so America pushed Pakistan to the right making Pakistan lose its balance. Now even if Americans leave, the Tiger is grown up enough with anti-Americanism meat, that it can hunt on its own, and does not need the old man Pak. The longer America remains in the neighborhood, the faster the growth of the tiger. So the question is whether the tiger is indeed grown enough or would a longer stay by the Americans help it further!

So even if India did not get the jihadis targeting India, India got something far more effective.

Aug 10 2010
RajeshA wrote:The Pakis have control over Afghan Taliban because of the situation at the moment. The present situation consists of
  • America occupying the homeland of the Afghan Pushtuns.
  • Afghan Taliban having to look for a safe haven, so as to avoid being mawed down by the Yankees, and the Tajiks, now in ANA.
  • Afghan Taliban having to look for financing, arms, training, leadership to take on the Americans.
That is what keeps the Afghan Taliban under the control of the Pakis, even though they are pissed off with the Pakis, their machinations, their blood lust to kill other Afghans, who are neutral or support Afghan Government. On top of that comes their loyalty to the Arabs, whom they are far more willing to trust than the Pakis.

All this means is, that once the Americans leave the Pushtun areas of Afghanistan, the contract between Afghan Taliban and ISI is over. In fact, one would see a far greater alignment of the Afghan Taliban with the TTP in Pakistan, which would increase its kick-ass policy in Pakistan.

In fact the Afghan Taliban would be willing to take support from any new quarter, be it PRC, India, Russia or Iran. With decreased funding from Pakistan, they probably would even be willing to take Indian money and kick the Pakistanis, where it hurts.


What I want to say is that when America leaves and money dries up, Afghani Taliban are going to break off with Pakistan and screw them big time. We should not worry too much! We should simply learn to do business, including with the Talibunnies!

One can say, that Pakistan lies between the devil and the deep blue sea! We should simply try to cut off Pakistan from the deep blue sea, so that it gets devoured by the devil! See my Mohajirstan scenario in "Managing Pakistan's failure"!

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby Prem » 19 Aug 2011 02:27

Poaq hope PRC will provide the dole but with Uigher trying to buy" small Nuke " from Taliban will make Panda think thrice. Russians wont like it either. If and When Uncle leaves Af-Pak, Poaqs have to face angry India, Iran, local Afghans, Russi and Massa himself. Massa will send almost same amount of troops to this theatre as many are pulled out publically.There is very little which PRC will or can do in such predicament. If such scenario plays out, billion a year is not much to buy good Talibani danda to administer right kind of slow impaling punishment to Poaqervasi . Now we do have local contacts through the famous fifteen hundred consulates in afghanistan and not to mention another Trillion dollar increase in GDP by 2015 thus making it easy to spent the money for this righteous cause .

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby Ravi Karumanchiri » 19 Aug 2011 05:19

The Kashmir-Afghanistan puzzle
The trust deficit between India and Pakistan is not only toxic to Kashmir but has broader ramifications in South Asia.
Mujib Mashal Last Modified: 18 Aug 2011 12:53

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/fe ... 21853.html

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby shravan » 19 Aug 2011 07:20

Two explosions in Kabul few minutes back. Indian diplomatic mission targeted

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby Ambar » 19 Aug 2011 07:27

Twitter says "Intercontinental Hotel , Kabul". The same hotel that was attacked a month ago,which is frequented by foreigners and high ranking Afghan govt officials.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby saket » 19 Aug 2011 07:29

del.
Last edited by saket on 19 Aug 2011 08:31, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby shravan » 19 Aug 2011 07:50

Twitter
British embassy confirmed the attack on British Council. British troop arrive at the scene.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby ramana » 19 Aug 2011 08:16

Two suicide bombers in Kabul

KABUL -- Two suicide bombings early Friday rocked a Kabul neighborhood near a hotel popular with Westerners.

The blasts were heard within about 10 minutes of each other from 5:45am local time, with sporadic gunfire also breaking out.

Smoke could be seen rising from the area, which is near the Intercontinental Hotel and the heavily-secured home of Afghanistan's First Vice President Mohammad Qasim Fahim.

At the scene was the burning wreckage of a car that had rammed into the wall of an office and exploded. There were ambulances on hand and helicopters overhead, an AFP reporter said.

Steven Clemons, the publisher of the popular US political blog, The Washington Note, said the first explosion shook his hotel.

"Yikes. Big explosion just occurred in Kabul. Shook my hotel. Dont know what it was -- bomb, rocket, not sure," he tweeted.

"Just heard 2nd explosion in Kabul - 30 seconds ago. Less big -- but significant."

He said the blasts hit on Afghanistan Independence Day, a national holiday, in the Karte Parwan region of Kabul.

The city's police chief later confirmed that there had been two suicide explosions.

"There have been two suicide explosions. My boys are engaged. I will give more information later," Ayub Salangi told AFP.

Clemons said Black Hawk helicopters could be seen racing to the scene, with unconfirmed reports the blasts may have targeted the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan or the British Consulate.

Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/internatio ... z1VRRN2eVz

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby AnimeshP » 19 Aug 2011 08:42

From Twitter

One of the Afghan tv channels reports explosions were at the Indian consulate, attackers inside, fight ongoing


If this is true ... ISI is stepping up the game ...

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby sum » 19 Aug 2011 08:45

^^ Well, we will be Chankian and silently withstand even this attack ( and the next and the next) and instead be content with awarding gallantry medals to any of our staff lucky to survive the ISI hit...

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby rajanb » 19 Aug 2011 08:54

AnimeshP wrote:From Twitter

One of the Afghan tv channels reports explosions were at the Indian consulate, attackers inside, fight ongoing


If this is true ... ISI is stepping up the game ...


There is a report of an attack on the British Council in Kabul. Twin bomb blasts.

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby Prem » 19 Aug 2011 09:01

Suicide blasts target British Council in Kabul
KABUL: Two large suicide explosions rocked a British cultural centre in the Afghan capital Kabul Friday, a public holiday marking Afghanistan’s independence from Britain in 1919.
The explosions, claimed by the Taliban, struck at the British Council offices in Kabul and witnesses reported that heavy gunfire was ongoing inside the compound. A third blast was heard later, but its cause was unclear.The British Council is an official organisation part-funded by London that promotes cultural relations in offices around the world.The full extent of the casualty toll was not immediately clear but Kabul police spokesman Hashmat Stanikzai said initial reports indicated that three or four people were wounded.“(There were) two explosions at the British Council but at this stage, we’re still gathering facts,” said Major Jason Waggoner, a spokesman for the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF).

http://www.dawn.com/2011/08/19/suicide- ... kabul.html

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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Postby rajanb » 19 Aug 2011 09:11

http://www.samachar.com/Blasts-gunfire-rock-Kabul-on-independence-day-litiLojidad.html?source=recommended_news

Contrary to rumours, Indian centre not targetted

Three explosions reportedly hit the centre of Afghanistan's capital Kabul on Friday.

The explosions, carried out by Taliban [ Images ] suicide bombers, occurred in the Karte Parwan area of the city, near the Intercontinental Hotel and the residence of First Vice President Mohammad Qasim Fahim.

The explosions struck at the British Council offices and witnesses reported that heavy gunfire was ongoing inside the compound.

Earlier it had been reported that the explosions happened at or near the Indian Cultural Centre. However, a Ministry of External Affairs official in New Delhi [ Images ] told rediff.com that its building had not been targeted.

Two explosions were reported within about 10 minutes of each other around 5:45 am (local time).

Military helicopters buzzed over the area as police cordoned off the scene.

The British Council is an official organisation part-funded by London [ Images ] that promotes cultural relations in offices around the world.

Friday is a national holiday in Afghanistan, marking the country's independence from Great Britain in 1919.


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