Listing the threats and challenges Pakistan poses to India again from above post
b) Rentier State for India's Enemies
c) Pakistani Military Threat
d) Barrier between India and Central Asia
f) Rising Entropy of Violence and Lawlessness
h) Consumption of Indian Resources
i) Refugee Flooding
j) Drugs Smuggling & Abuse
k) Weapons Smuggling
Now let's look at solutions for these problems in short.
1) Ethnic Cleansing - Full scale wiping out of all Pakistanis or driving 200 million to the deserts of Arabia. (Something our Dharma would not allow us)
2) Mental Cleansing - We have tried peace with Pakistan in the future, and it didn't work. There are no indications that it can ever work. The Pakistani mind is beyond redemption and rationality.
3) Enforced Behavioral Change - This requires an occupation of lands under Pakistan and of Pakistanis, and they would be forced to behave differently, perhaps be forced to convert to some Indic faith, etc. This is a solution favored by brihaspati ji
. This would require an enormous cost in effort and resources from an India and would have to be executed over a couple of decades. If however we fail to force the Indic way down their throats fully, we would be confronted with an insurgency many times more vicious and wide-spread than what we have faced in Kashmir. It could end up giving the Pakistanis and Islamism a new leash of life.
4) Contextual Transformation - All the vices in Pakistan with regard to India grow from three sources - Nazariya-e-Pakistan
, Legitimate National Interests
. Whereas it is possible for India and Pakistan to find some solution for Pakistan's legitimate national interests like water resources, market access to Indian market, transit rights through India to Bangladesh and East Asia, etc., it is far more difficult to deal with the other two problems - Nazariya-e-Pakistan
problem originates from the existence of the State of Pakistan itself, and the need of the state within the state, the Pakistani Army, to justify its behavior. So either we leave Pakistan as it is and take out the Pakistani Army, or we finish off Pakistan, and the Pakistani Army without a state loses its raison d'être and its aquarium and dissolves. The Pakistani Army cannot be wished away, as it is supported by the resources of the state, and its 3½ Friends (USA, PRC, Saudi Arabia, UK). So the only option left is to destroy its aquarium - Pakistani State. Without the State there will also be no need of a State Philosophy, a Nazariya-e-Pakistan
in Pakistan is a IMHO a secondary problem which gets immensely magnified when it is put through the magnifying glass of Nazariya-e-Pakistan
. It is Nazariya-e-Pakistan
which keeps the Pakistani population anchored in Islamism. Without this Nazariya-e-Pakistan
, the people may be more open to the idea of exploring their Indic side, as it becomes more a case of 2 historically equally legitimate philosophical pulls. Surely Islamist extremism would try violence as well to keep their flock from wandering too much over the Indic Hills, but there is a limit to influence that these can exert. One could very well ask why did Bangladesh not revert to Indic influence once the Nazariya-e-Pakistan was removed. That is a valid question, and refutes my contention that Islamism is a secondary problem and dependent on Nazariya-e-Pakistan
. To that I can only say, that the Islamist pull remains stronger than the Indic pull, and that is because the Saudis can pump money and the Indics have become defensive and shy about their faith and culture. But that is a situation which can still be redeemed. Peak Oil and Indian Growth can again bring a new equilibrium there. That equilibrium can also be brought to Pakistan and even be made to tilt the Indic way.
That should basically be the way to fight Islamism
- through the expectation of Peak Oil
- through Indian Growth-driven resources
- through a renaissance in Indian Islam, which breaks its umbilical cord from Arab Islam.
- through the Indian Dream
- through a more aggressive presentation of Indic Heritage and Pride in it as well as Indic Missionary and Charity Work.
Fighting Islamism bereft of its support in Nazariya-e-Pakistan
is a much easier challenge than one shouldered by Nazariya-e-Pakistan
. Secondly the collapse of Nazariya-e-Pakistan
would in itself be a big blow to Islamism, in a similar way Communism became a pitiable word after the collapse of Soviet Union.
Without the Nazariya-e-Pakistan
and Pakistani State
, all other threats arising from the region become far more manageable.
c) The Pakistani Military Threat
would be gone for good.
b) The possibility of some State immediately to India's West being used against India by other powers would be substantially reduced, as no other big power would be allowed to either have a direct land access to the subsequent states emerging out of the break-up of Pakistan, and no other power would subsequently have so much influence in any of them as much as India.
d) The Barrier between India and Central Asia would be gone, as no emerging state would be allowed to determine the barrier. India would be having access to Central Asia through multiple access routes going through multiple countries, still outside India, but under India's influence.
f) Violence and Lawlessness may increase due to the lack of a central force, but that need not be so. India can invest resources into the Law Enforcement Agencies of the emerging statelets and strengthen them. Being closer to the local level, these forces would be far better in a position to deal with the challenge of lawlessness.
g) Terrorism would lose its biggest patron - Pakistani State. There may still be efforts by Islamists and the rump Pakistani Army, but these groups can be pursued and be hunted down. The emerging statelets should have strong law enforcement agencies supported by India but no independent armies.
h) India can use technology to share in the resources with the emerging statelets.
i) Refugee Flooding can also be controlled in the aftermath of the break up of Pakistan, if India moves quickly to prop up and strengthen local governments in the various new provinces. The Muslim refugees should not be allowed to enter India at any cost.
j) Drugs smuggling can be fought better when India's energies are also used to fight Drugs production at the source itself.
k) Weapons possession in the new statelets would have to banned by law, and the local law enforcement agencies would have to be used to put an end to both weapons production and weapons market in the region.
The only permanent solution I see is the break-up of Pakistan.