Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby ramana » 16 Aug 2009 03:03

ShauryaT wrote:
Raj Malhotra wrote:Almost all BRites are building a face saving scenario in which they expect India to use IAF, my case is that Yellow politicians will pee in their pants but will again NOT use IAF and in fact will try to pretend it to be a local affair. It will be Siachin in reverse.



Actually a real potential, especially through its proxy TSP - an attempt regain Siachen by TSP with help from PRC, the strategic goal being the taking of the Karakoram to link up with Aksai Chin and then a grand ceding of territory to PRC by TSP. By wild imaginations only, but something that can stay local, has some strategic relevance and in the realm of possibilities.


The only PRC chance is this potential of indirect war. Direct war will force them to use nukes. They have no other alternate. I know RayC wants to pin me on this. All I will say at this time is I base my conclusion on IA & IAF skills.

And samuel its 72 hours for air superiority over Tibet skies.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Bade » 16 Aug 2009 03:29

The only reason for the recent sabre-rattling by PRC is the inability to use their bestest proxy this time around. It is 10 years since Kargil and one of their pearls in the dirt is out of action and doing Uncle Sam's bidding instead.

1999 Kargil (wasn't Mushy in Beijing during the war calling the shots on when to do down hill skiing ?)
1989-90 J&K and threat of war.
1979 I was in la-la land then so do not know.
1969(1971) It came a little late due to their local troubles with the Cultural revolution. But I do remember his war as we had war drills in school and black outs in Calcutta.
1962 is history now.

So war hysteria is real in 2009 and like clockwork it is almost ten years after Kargil. Remember all the sanctions that followed and the uphill battle to get the economy back to a decent 5+%. It took almost 5 years to get there. So the only threat that PRC will understand is we say we will take their economy down to low single digits rate of growth if any war happens this time around for sure. Mutually assured GDP destruction and that threat is more severe than some piece of land in some plateau in the Himalayas. Tibetan salvation will come as a result of destruction. To true Yindoos destruction is necessary for the next creation. So no logical inconsistency in our morals, ethics or even philosophy. If Beijing wants it then we should be working hard towards delivering their salvation. There can be no other honorable way out of the challenge, if one does not want to go repeat the history following Islamic invasions from the north-west frontier from over a thousand years ago.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby khan » 16 Aug 2009 07:28

>>Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Yes! And it will not be just about Tibet. It will be about:
  • ATV - They aren't Pakistani enough to start something once India has a credible second strike capability.
  • Pakistan is being neutered, Sri Lanka is stable, Myanmar is neutral, Bangladesh is friendly with India now and their attempt at mischief in Nepal was thwarted. Their attempt to encircle India with hostile powers seems to have hit a dead end. China will soon be getting India's full and undivided attention.
  • As several people have noted, India's economy is doing well and the Indian model is threatening the CPC's hold on power.
  • China seeks hegemony over Asia. They will never have it as long as India exists as a credible power. India's dominant location in the Indian Ocean ensures that China will need to have overwhelming Naval superiority over India to compete with India in the Indian Ocean. That level of superiority is not feasible unless the Indian economy gets very sick or India somehow disintegrates.
  • After the 2009 elections, with the political stability that has come, India's economy is set to take off. China realizes that its window of opportunity is narrowing.
  • Tibet and the Dalai Lama situation. If the Dalai Lama dies at age 80 (6 years from now) and his successor is from Twang/Arunachal and if he is accepted be the people of Tibet as legitimate, it will give India a tremendous amount of leverage over Tibet. Remember, such a candidate will be an Indian citizen and 6 years from now, there will be very little the Chinese can do about it.

Lastly, I believe that all the talk of China attacking before 2012 is optimistic. I believe that they will attack in 2009. The reason is that in 2012, the ATV will be operational. I believe that China's window of opportunity closes with snowfall 2009.

The point that I am trying to make is that there is no one big reason compelling enough for China to attack, there are just a whole bunch of little ones and the window of opportunity for the Chinese to attack is closing fast.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby csharma » 16 Aug 2009 07:38

Cross posting from India-China thread.

Definitely something is going on. The fact that the Chinese leader asked for a hotline with India during meeting with MMS might indicate that some domestic elements might want to have to some action along the Indian border.

Border tensions rise between India and China over Himalayas

http://www.smh.com.au/world/border-tens ... -el7l.html



THERE are fears that a stand-off between India and China over a little-known region of the Himalayas could seriously damage ties between the Asian giants.

China lays claim to much of Arunachal Pradesh, a mountainous Indian province on the country's north-eastern extremity, and strategic experts in New Delhi warn that tensions in the remote border region are on the rise.

''Largely unknown to the rest of the world, India-China border tensions have escalated in recent months,'' says Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at Delhi's Centre for Policy Research. ''Things are getting really intense and from the Indian perspective outrageous.''


The good news is that :


Professor Chellaney says the border tensions are ominous. ''Any doubts that the Indian foreign policy establishment might have had about the threat posed by China have evaporated in recently months.''

Just as B Raman had mentioned these PLA types are trying to imtimidate the India political leadership so that they would stop boosting defences along Chinese border.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby ShauryaT » 16 Aug 2009 07:42

khan wrote:[*]Tibet and the Dalai Lama situation. If the Dalai Lama dies at age 80 (6 years from now) and his successor is from Twang/Arunachal and if he is accepted be the people of Tibet as legitimate, it will give India a tremendous amount of leverage over Tibet. Remember, such a candidate will be an Indian citizen and 6 years from now, there will be very little the Chinese can do about it.
No comment on other parts of the post, but I love the above idea.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby enqyoob » 16 Aug 2009 08:23

According to the Indian Express article, the commies are extlemery angly at this, and would like to solve it by having the PRC patrol Tawang in those Tien An Mien tanks.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Paul » 16 Aug 2009 08:37

Another post from the patriot alliance forum. Maybe RayC can look at this.
Their analysis on how to hold Arunachal after the war. The author does think they will be able to hold the territory.

Apologies if this is too long. Google translation does not flow well.

The pain of China's Tibet! Sino-Indian war, why can not guard the People's Liberation Army after the possession of the South?
Reprint: http://bbs.news.sina.com.cn/tableforum/ ... &tbid=6599

1962 Sino-Indian border war, after the victory of our army, was ordered to withdraw in 1959 Japan and China and India on November 7 the actual line of control the two sides. In the western part of the Sino-Indian border, this "line in November 1959" is the traditional Sino-Indian boundary line, but does not include about 450 square kilometers area巴里加斯.巴里加斯withdrawal of the post-war army.

In the eastern section of the Sino-Indian border, "in November 1959 lines" is McMahon Line. Our army at the beginning of December 1962 to withdraw its troops to withdraw early in 1963 to 7 November, 1959 lines (that is, McMahon Line), and also back a 20 km. Then again all of Indian wheat lines occupied 90 thousand square kilometers south of the Tibetan region. Our military in post-war Sino-Indian border in the eastern section of the withdrawal, much controversy in recent years.

1. All of our military to defend the post-war southern Tibet areas?

For the East after the war the army should not withdraw the issue of domestic controversy in recent years have been. A think we should withdraw, and the other that should not be withdrawn, should adhere to the local immigration southern Tibet, the two sides each have their own reason.

Then, in 1962 after the war, what our military can hold them all the Tibetan region?

The answer is: certainly not!

Why? The reason is simple, if to do so, we had all left to its own disadvantage, given all the advantages of India. India's overwhelming superiority in the case of a confrontation with them. In this way, we absolutely can not be sustained.

Let us look at some of our army in possession of a truce before the progress of the region:

The eastern section of the Sino-Indian border area of our military operations is the main line of the western end of the grams of Mr Day Long - Tawang - Xishan mouth - so that in Germany -邦迪拉areas, where the Sino-Indian border is the main battlefield of the war; the other is the Michael Line Lane area at the eastern end of the tile. In these two regions, close to the traditions and customs of our army lines. Wheat lines in the central region, both China and India are not in force, and removal of Indian army has 16 positions, from wheat to promote a number of the south line. Chairman Mao ordered that the time of the armistice, not all of our military to recover the disputed area south of wheat.
Of course, if not a cease-fire orders to our military posture at the time of the operations and the total collapse of the Indian situation, all of our military continue to move forward to recover possession of the Southern region, and even into the plains of Assam, India, Brahmaputra饮马It is no problem.

However, we must see that as a result of possession of Nanshan District, the special geographical environment, the enemy in possession of Nanshan District, the two sides can not put large-scale forces.

Our military offensive, the main battlefield in the valley along the two corridors to move forward, that is, the western end of the Tawang corridor and the eastern end of the corridor get watts. In these places, the struggle between the two sides can not be carried out battle involving large corps. Our army into smaller forces, will be able to reach the vicinity of the traditional customary line.

Los corner in the region, our military is moving forward along the Brahmaputra valley and the region, high mountains and dense lam, the two sides of the force into fewer, there is no battle worth mentioning.

When the input of our military forces back about 3 million people, the Indian Army has also invested roughly equal strength.

However, if the intention of our army occupied the full possession of the post-war Yugoslavia, it must be along the 650 kilometers in length and have no insurance can be used to observe the traditional line of deployment. Behind our military, is uninhabited, high mountains, the possession of transport facilities, Nanshan District,一马平川front is, highways, railway network complete, fertile plains of Assam, India.

650 km-long defense of traditional customary line, our military will certainly have to invest at least 200,000 troops barely enough. So many forces, logistical supplies, weapons and ammunition supplies to meet? Moreover, because of traffic inconvenience to the mouth of our military can only分兵, passive security. And the Indian plains of Assam on the contrary can be used to facilitate the traffic conditions, free movement of troops, gathering strength, in their view that the right time, location, superior force to spread to me Shoujun attack, and not have to worry about what the Indian Army logistics问题.

As a result, we had all left to its own disadvantage, given all the advantages of India. India's overwhelming superiority in the case of a confrontation with them, we can do lasting? Of our military, this is definitely a disaster!

Shou守不住we are also talking about immigration?

Internet users now have the first place we should be put forward into the plains of Assam, India blocked the road to the Ganges plain of the Assam plains less than 40 km wide channel to enter Assam from the Indian army, so that we can keep possession of the Southern region. Assam plains can use to fight custody battle.

In fact, even without this program feasibility. At that time, there might of our military occupation of the plains of Assam, but the long-term, it maintains it is simply impossible. But this program involves an extremely complicated international issue, so, if not all-out war between the two countries China and India, this program can not be considered.

Therefore, the Sino-Indian border in 1962 After the war, our army is not possible to hold the entire region of southern Tibet. Since守不住, of course, should be back, but it must withdraw our military McMahon line?
The answer is: do not have to withdraw our military McMahon Line!

二. Marshal Liu Bocheng retracement has suggested that the possibility of withdrawal less ......

For the post-war army back, my personal view is: the Sino-Indian border in the East, our military can not easily stick to give up some of the region, due back, but we should withdraw to the McMahon Line.

Many users may not know, from the traditional customary line to the McMahon Line between possession of Nanshan District, there are dozens of dozens of kilometers to 100 kilometers in depth, our military is not only the traditions and customs of the two lines and McMahon Line选择.

前文已above, the army only in Tawang, tile, etc. get the three regions to move forward, not occupied all of southern Tibet. The so-called post-war troops, in fact, three regions in the above-mentioned question of withdrawal did not withdraw its troops.
1. I still Shou Shou Xishan邦迪拉?

Grams of the first section we look at Lang - Tawang - Nishiyama I (salad) - and Germany to allow cases -邦迪拉the direction of the south in the direction of our military inventory has hit close to the traditional customary line. Well, our armed forces can adhere to the spot and inventory, to defend the fruits of this victory? Certainly not! The reason is simple, too close to here from the plains of India, not easy to adhere to, definitely need to back our military. So, is it really necessary to withdraw Michael line? Do not need! Our military will have two options: 1.邦迪拉Shou Yamaguchi, II. I observe the Western Hills.

Shou-邦迪拉Yamaguchi will be in Germany so that, Nishiyama I, Tawang in our hands to control. Recovered more and more territory from the point of view, this was the best option. However, from a military perspective, Shou邦迪拉not say how much chance of winning.

Shou Nishiyama I (salad), you can keep Tawang, speaking from the area to recover the territory, it is better to observe邦迪拉. But here is a natural barrier from wheat near, in favor of our military defense. Western Hills south of the mouth so that the German case is a transportation hub, no risk can observe, the Indian Army can not be here long-term Tuen heavily. Therefore, I can also observe the Western Hills "look live" so that in Germany. From the logistics perspective, Shou Shou Mai Nishiyama line the mouth and not very different from the use of resources in terms of Tawang, I might be better to observe the Western Hills. Therefore, this program should be the best option.

2. Shou-watt should do?

We take a look at Watts Lane area, to counter war, our military occupation of tile alley, soldiers arrived in the traditional customary line front. However, in the traditional customary line, our military can not risk Shou, will certainly be back. Watt Mountain region Gaolin get close, with an average altitude above 4,000 meters, steep cliff, cross the river, fast-flowing, easily defensible. Michael Watt from the line get very far, can adhere to.

3. Mr central line,稍退can!

Wheat lines in the middle years of our army occupied only Meakin, Metsu cards, such as more-jen by Michael promote a number of south line, from the traditional practice still have a long-distance lines. In the region, mountain Gaolin Micronesia, the Indian Army can not force me into great battle, our army can retreat under the circumstances a little, in the south of wheat can hold several positions, no need to withdraw to a line of wheat.

Marshal Liu Bocheng said to have suggested the possibility of lower back a little withdrawal, indicating the matter back for high-level government officials have a different view.

Some articles online now that the troops in our country is not easy to give up when the local firm, but it is important pass, did not give up the high ground. Unfortunately, it is just good!

三. Things are not the battlefield, it can never expect to be the negotiating table

Mr army does not withdraw to the line, starting in fact deny the legitimacy of the wheat lines, but also for the future and lay a good basis for talks on border issues. Korean War armistice talks, we had a famous saying: things are not the battlefield, it can never expect to be the negotiating table. We are in the battlefield of the Sino-Indian border land, give it up after the war, only that we do not allow India to keep its strength. We can also re-negotiated to come back?

四. Snow mountain, logistical difficulties in the withdrawal of the McMahon Line is the reason?

Currently online support withdrawal of troops after the war is nothing but the following reasons:

1. Strategic focus of the problem
2. Snow mountain
3. Indian ready to counterattack
4. Transportation lines long, difficult logistics support
5. Three years of economic difficulties
6. Good international environment

For these reasons we can not say that does not make sense, but not of our army to withdraw a sufficient basis for wheat lines.

1. China's strategic focus is indeed not in the Sino-Indian border areas, but the strategic focus of India in the region on it? May not be right. It focused on the Indian Ocean, in Pakistan, southern Tibet, I am afraid it is not the strategic focus of the first, right?
2. Snow mountain, this argument has been mentioned numerous times. But few people seriously think about what happened in the snow mountain where?

The answer is: mountain snow line occurred mainly in the north of wheat (including wheat line) mountain.


Mr areas south of the disputed by China's administrative divisions, mainly in the wrong and that, Takako, Medog, etc. Chayu County. Several counties that have a snow-capped mountains of the north. For example, the Medog County, north of the famous Snowy Mountains Namjagbarwa; Chayu County, north of the east has snow-capped mountains; north of the wrong that has snow-capped mountains. (See Figure 5)

Therefore, our military withdraw Mak line, just north of the line will be Michael's troubled mountain mountain snow, heavy snow from the mountain if you want to only wheat lines from the north and then retreat back over snow-capped mountains area. Is it possible?

The most laughable thing is, wheat south of the Xishan mountain I also have heavy snow. In other words, if the Western Hills North Indian population do not, they do not have snow mountain problems, but if they enter the Tawang, they also have a snow mountain behind the problem. Indian occupation to Tawang but the!

3. Indian ready to counterattack, this is not true. Indian army to wipe out the trump card division units No. 4 and 10, however in a few days before and after the time of摧枯拉朽like one defeat. At that time, a panic in India, the Indian state of Assam Government has even made will be China's worst long-term occupation. What organizations where they will counterattack. We can Imagine if our country's 38 army in ten days but the time and equipment by a number of advantages of not accounting for the number of complete defeat of the Indian army, we will be what kind of shock, we will immediately think of the army to counterattack ? At that time India has done a national mobilization, but that is to continue to attack our army in order to prevent the plains of India, New Delhi hit.

4. Transportation lines long, difficult logistical support to three years of economic difficulties, poor international environment, these problems do exist, but these problems if China's leaders want to resolve, but also can be resolved completely.

Many people now believe that southern Tibet near the Indian plains, India logistics easily, in fact, it is not aware of the situation at that time. India was fighting in southern Tibet, it is very difficult logistics.

In this paper, Figure III, cited in the border war in 1962, India No. 4 Division尼兰詹. Prasad book The Fall of Towang (Chinese translation of "an Indian general confession of aggression against China"). Is how we look at the Prasad said:

...... Pictogram contrast, China's preparations are far better than we are. With its unique style of the Chinese in Tibet, the eastern part of the large-scale construction of roads and the airport plans, which have a profound impact on India's. Enable China to focus on road network and maintenance of the border大兵团Direct. This is China, it is not difficult; because of the topography of Tibet there is a plateau, very flat in many places for military vehicles. The ground in this road, will not be a big problem. Department of Tawang highlighted area to the north, is a typical example. In contrast, in our side, we must cross the jungle clouds, rain fell across several mountains, the main line to reach the region, while China may be the front line along the Brahmaputra has run almost through our borders. Limited as long as they work, the donkey would enable the existing horse trail vehicles. Obviously, this is an unequal confrontation ...."

Prasad said, do not rule out seeking an excuse for the defeat of Indian elements, but the actual experience as a border war in 1962 the senior commanders of the Indian line, he concluded to be more realistic.

If our army in the traditional customary line Shou, the Indian Army did not logistical problems. But if we retreat to the hinterland of southern Tibet, the Indian Army was in possession of Nanshan District, I am afraid of the logistical problems less than our military. By Prasad said the anti-people to think it is more possession logistical support of our military superiority.

In fact, even if our military back to wheat lines, but also there is still a long transport, logistical support problems.

In 1969, China and the Soviet Union due to the conflict Zhenbao Island, suddenly tense relations, war cloud processes, the CPC Central Committee had found the Soviet Union on China's military offensive in the country to carry out the evacuation, the army entered the months of emergency preparedness. Since then a few years, the state financial expenditure 1 / 4 or more for military projects, total number of troops has risen to more than six million people and huge amounts of long-term expenditures, readiness to spend big is the founding of New China unprecedented.

We can imagine a time when our country was WG, economy, please? In the south, China's support for Vietnam against the United States, thousands of kilometers in the north of the border, a full-scale military confrontation with the Soviet Union, which is what the international environment?

This bad economy, the international environment is so bad, so much readiness to spend, did not collapse in our country is not it?

五. Our military to withdraw the real reason for McMahon Line

1. Our government in the fifties and sixties to address the issue of Sino-Indian border ideas

After the founding of our country to deal with border issues with neighboring countries is the principle:

(1). Left over from old China to the boundaries of reality to take the attitude of respect and recognize the line of actual control, not to use force to change the status quo has been the border.

(2). Recognition of the Line of Actual Control in the basis of the delineation of the boundary through negotiations.


For various reasons, the Sino-Indian border dispute between the two governments on a formal showdown in 1959. In March 1959, Nehru wrote to Zhou Enlai, requested that the disputed territory of 125,000 square km of all classified India. And in August the same year in October, the Indian Army's Eastern Long long provoked the incident and the West line of the conflict in the mouth air Kazan. November 7, Zhou Enlai formally proposed the two sides to the Indian Line of Actual Control in the border 20 kilometers of the retreat in order to avoid conflicts. This is the November 7, 1959 Line of Control in the history of the two sides.

This line of control in the eastern section of the Sino-Indian border is the McMahon Line; in the western section is the traditional Sino-Indian boundary line. THEY Accept this///

1960, Zhou Enlai and Chen Yi's visit to India when the Indian side to the "east for the West" or "abandoned East Paul West" program, also November 7, 1959 the two sides based on the actual line of control proposed. Under this program, our government has abandoned the actual area to the south line of the wheat.

However, the western section of Nehru insisted claim Aksai Chin region, the Chinese government makes no concessions to achieve this great result.

After the border war in 1962, while our military occupation of part of the disputed area south of wheat, but the region is China's government has approved the implementation of India-controlled areas, we do not intend to change the status quo by force. Thus, the total withdrawal of our military will be announced by our own November 7, 1959 both the actual line of control. And intended as the basis of the Sino-Indian border talks re-opened as soon as possible to resolve the border issue.

2. India, the principle of

But it is a pity that India does not recognize, we do not intend to comply with this proposed line of actual control. India's principles are:

India believes that where the boundary line drawn in their favor, it should be designated where no need to consult with China;

Indian advance where there is the actual line of control in India;

The actual occupation of the sovereign, 80% will be international recognition.

From the 80's began to erode after Mr India north of the line of view of China's territory, India has not changed its treatment of the principles of the disputed territory.

I personally think that our government's package to solve the Sino-Indian border dispute, not necessarily in conformity with international law and international practice, not necessarily valid. There are three reasons: 1. The territory of an area of much controversy; 2. 1 October, 1949, both China and India did not form a relatively stable, the actual line of control; 3. India has its own code of conduct.

Because India is acting in accordance with the other codes of conduct, does not accept China's "law of the actual line of control", we do not have the effect of not only, but also convey the wrong message to the other side, and finally counter-productive. Not solve the problem we suffer heavy losses.

We proposed to the east in the pre-war and post-war West for the unconditional withdrawal of the wheat lines, which are sent the wrong message to the Indian approach. Maxwell in "India China war," wrote the book: This is not so much so that the whole world breathed a sigh of relief, as that is to let the whole world is stunned. The history of world war has never been such a thing, the victory party in the losers there is no commitment case, unilaterally and unconditionally withdraw its troops, in fact, that is, pay a high price so that their hard-won gains of the victory. Like when the Qing Government in the Sino-French War in Vietnam, the French victory over the anti-Qing States anti-abortion unbeaten.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby sanjaykumar » 16 Aug 2009 09:09

In medicine there is an adage-when there are many treatments postulated for a disease, nothing really works.


There is much (diametrically opposite) diversity of opinion eg

And samuel its 72 hours for air superiority over Tibet skies.

To which masterji will probably insist on quantity, leading to a 10 000 Sopwith Camel assault on Tibet. :rotfl:

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Yogi_G » 16 Aug 2009 11:33

One another compelling factor which would lead to Chinese strat/military planners to aim for a quick humiliating defeat over the lound eyes would be the strategic reserves of crude that they maintain. By 2010 it is estimated that Chinese crude reserves would be sufficient for about 30 days, so we can deduce now that such a small number (by US standards) will not be sufficient for a long drawn battle. India can WELL AFFORD to have a long drawn conflict in these terms given its geographical advantage, whilst China simply cannot. There will be international pressure on India and China to cease fire just due to the economic fallout, and as was suggested earlier here, a short conflict will work to India's advantage. China's 50% of crude comes through the Malacca straits from the middle east and without a significant presence in the IOR, which by its current strength and abilities is just not possible. In case of war China will look towards Central Asia/Russia for its oil needs, I believe China still does not exercise enough leverage vis a vis Russia as compared to India. I somehow get the feeling that Russia will naturally "tilt" towards India in the next Sino-Indian conflict. Russia will take advantage of the fact that MOST of Chinese neighbours harbour suspicions or are having/have had armed conflict with it in some stage of history. A Russian tilt will severely demoralize China for it is known where US sympathies lie. The next Sino-Indian conflict might just about be the chance that all of China's neighbours are waiting for to "teach" China a lesson before they become too economically entangled with it. India will need to play its cards right with China's neighbours in anticipation of one such fight, help open new diplomatic fronts for psy-ops (Vietnam and Russia come to mind) and deliver the "bloody nose" to China in the short armed conflict.

A subdued China is the best catalyst for democracy and human rights in Asia!

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby shiv » 16 Aug 2009 12:09

India has land borders with China in the North and North East. For the time being I am ignoring the north and concentrating on the north east.

Using the haram Google earth to fly along the Arunachal Pradesh border with China I discovered that the entire "border" is mostly over 3000 meters high - often more than 4-5000 meters. Only along one river valley does this border come down to less than 1000 meters over a distance about 4-5 km

I was just wondering what kind of "border" this was until I had teh bright idea of measuring elevations. On haraam Google Earth drawing any line over 50 km long from border towards India causes elevations to fall to 1000 m. From any point, drawing a line towards Tibet/China causes the elevation to rise to 4000-5000 meters.

This is very nicely shown in an elevation map from Bhuvan.

Image

The border is all purple/mauve of 3000 meters or so. Towards India the elevations fall to 1000 meters (green). Towards China the elevations tend to turn blue (4000-5000 meters). And these high elevations extend over 300 kilometers in any direction towards China.

Guess where the invaders will be coming from? And their supplies.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby harbans » 16 Aug 2009 12:46

Shiv ji, thanks for being one of the first to put Bhuvan images to good use. I saw this area in quite some detail in the past on haraam Google too. Also accessible areas to Tibet itself. I don't believe it will possible for the Chinese to bring in 1 million troops ino Tibet in case of an all out war. Those scenarios are offbeat. EVen in areas like AP they will have great trouble moving men and equipment in the conflict zone. Coming to Tibet itself, they have one major point of entry. Tibet itself can be cut off from China in case a major outbreak of war happens. Everything depends on political will and planning. I am not saying we should go for such an option, but planning for it will be prudent.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Paul » 16 Aug 2009 13:42

There is no way they can hold territory in Arunachal. If they could, they would have done so in 1962 itself. They do not want to admit it but they know that they made a mistake by going back in 1962. This time we will give them such a sound ass whipping that would unravel the whole goddamned totalitarian state and make it what it was in in the first place, a settlement of huts on the Yangtze river.

If we can take over at least a few sq. hundred kms in Aksai chin, we can declare victory, paki shytle and watch Asia's sorrow unravel at the seams.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Neela » 16 Aug 2009 14:54

Assuming that war is imminent, could India withdraw from NFU? WOuld that make a difference?

If indeed India does that, the CCP will have a lot of trouble back home.
2 gorges (as Arun Sir said) and Shan-gone - isn't it a risk too much?

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby enqyoob » 16 Aug 2009 15:05

So I note that the Chinese are doing quite well, building rail lines and roads in terrain with 3000-5000m altitudes, while Indian Babus and jernails are claiming to be smart being unable to build anything much at 1000m altitudes. Why is this cause for celebration or complacency?

What the terrain maps show is that the Chinese have no reason to fear Indian assault through their lines into their rear areas. Everything depends on the IAF destroying the Chinese infrastructure. Don't you think that people who are smart and industrious enough to build all this infrastructure, are also smart and industrious enough to protect those with massive numbers of SAMs?

In case of war, destruction of that infrastructure is a do-or-die critical mission for IAF, because otherwise that infrastructure will be used to pour troops and vehicles down towards the 1000m altitude paradise of India. This means that in the first days of the conflict, the IAF HAS to attack the infrastructure. No 2 ways about it.

Which means that inside a few days, the IAF's strike capability will be very heavily degraded by attrition. I don't know of any massive advantage that IAF planes have against SAMs being launched from 3000 - 5000 m altitudes.

What would be the effect of a simultaneous landing in AN during this time, demanding half the long-range air strike / air defense suppression forces to be pulled there?

India simply does not have the numbers of weapons to counter the Chinese threat, and I don't see serious moves to improve the weapons production / deployment process. Someone should compare the production rate of artillery shells, for instance, between WW2 facilities in Kolkatta, and today's guvrmand-run (or "private") enterprises. Have 65 years of experience and PhD theses in Industrial Engineering improved matters? Or is it all "chalta hai"?

Re: Haraam Goog*e, the small question that arises is, what is the ground reality of the borders? Anyone been beyond the haraam marked "borders" ACTUALLY in recent times? Reason for my question is that until about 1999 most desis believed that the map of J&K as shown in the desi textbooks showed actual borders.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby SwamyG » 16 Aug 2009 15:21

SBajwa wrote:"In the last 30 years China could not subdue Vietnam, Japan or Taiwan., while their proxy napakistan easily keeps India down., and what better way to start our economy by putting more people to work by building tanks, guns, airplanes, etc., to take on the weakling india with lots of population to murder."

For all our whinning about our leaders, our leaders are street smart too. Now, how long will it take for them to arrive at similar conclusions?

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby enqyoob » 16 Aug 2009 15:25

P.S. If u wonder why I am being such an ass, (other than habit of course) maybe my 6th cousin's paanwala's 4th cousin chaiwala overheard something about the state of affairs in some of these "manufacturing" enterprises, enough to form a broad guess on the "default" situation. IMHO, the execs or these enterprises have their thumbs very much up their musharrafs and their heads under the sand.

Jingos hu r seriously interested in doing some good and forestalling a Chinese invasion, should do some checking on this, and raise the alarm loudly enough to get said thumbs out of said musharrafs, and said musharrafs kicked out and replaced by dedicated and competent people. It's absolutely life-or-death for Indian defence.

History shows that WW2 was such a disaster to begin with, because Germany and Japan used military dictatorship to devote most of their workforce to building high-quality weaponry, flat out. The other nations went by "chalta hai".

WW2 turned around when the US and Soviet (Stalinist kind and gentle) logistics enterprises really kicked in, and were far enough away from the bombers to be able to work uninterrupted. In the east, it was INDIAN factories that kicked in, and kept the British war effort going, of course under slave labor conditions. So von Runstedt & Co found themselves 1000 miles from supplies, running worn-out tanks, and were suddenly faced with several divisions of fresh troops from Mongolia in thousands of new tanks. The tanks themselves were no match for the German tanks, but there were simply too many of them.

Likewise, Rommel found himself at the far reach of his supplies, his fuel tankers knocked out, sitting in the middle of the desert, and suddenly faced with the 8th INDIAN Army, freshly equipped from Bangalore. Yamamoto & Co found themselves facing a tsunami of bombers and aircraft carriers and submarines and destroyers from American factories.

When all is said and done, the Germans and Japanese lost because they could not crank out bombers and fighters and tanks and warships as fast as the Allies were doing.

Part of the reason for even this, was that the factories got demolished. IOW, German and Japanese factories were within range of Allied mass-bombing missions, while the American and Siberian and Indian factories were not in range of the other side's bombers.

Look up the numbers to see how bad the comparison is. Some 50,000 combat aircraft were LOST by the Allies, but in the end they had more than that left.

Now look at all the discussions here. The LCA is GOING to have a massive FORTY units produced - in the next 5 years - IF there is an engine available.

The 126 multirole combat aircraft purchase MAY be decided any year now, with deliveries to start in another few years.

The BOFORS guns still need imported shells.

The main battle tank MAY be heading into production, coming out with maybe 1 a month any year now.

There is a plan to launch 3 nuke submarines in the next decade.

And I will refrain from commenting on the production lines of the various missiles, out of consideration for the 6th cousin of the paanwala.

Does India have enough snow boots for the 100,000 soldiers who will have to be pumped into these mountains, probably in winter? Or do those have to be bought from Macedonian arms dealers?


Nai Dilli, like Rawalpindi, needs a lot of lamp-posts to honor a great many Babus. Then again, maybe India can import those from China. :roll: since producing them in India would take another 20 years, with 90% phoren collaborashun and World Bank Aid.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Hari Seldon » 16 Aug 2009 15:57

The main battle tank MAY be heading into production, coming out with maybe 1 a month any year now.

There is a plan to launch 3 nuke submarines in the next decade.

And I will refrain from commenting on the production lines of the various missiles, out of consideration for the 6th cousin of the paanwala.

Does India have enough snow boots for the 100,000 soldiers who will have to be pumped into these mountains, probably in winter? Or do those have to be bought from Macedonian arms dealers?


Appreciate the clarity and the candor. There's likely no way we can scale up in time as in by 2012. Heck, we're not likely to even get there by 2020. The babooze and netaship responsible might (or might not, going by the fate of Sri JLN after '62) be evicted by the burden of defeat and massive reparations owed to the PLA after losing the entire NE plus Sikkim.

Checkmate, game over. The only thing saving our musharrafs right now is maybe, maybe the nookular bums. If there's even a 1% hesitation in using or otherwise losing them, won't take long for PLA to call that bluff, I reckon.

All is lost only. :(

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby enqyoob » 16 Aug 2009 16:21

Hari, I seriously believe that given a swift kick from above, India can crank up infrastructure, logistics and weapon system manufacturing by several orders of magnitude, within few months. So there is a serious possibility of achieving that objective with enough public demand. The real situation needs to be exposed to the public - the Chinese and Pakis and AmirKhans I am sure have their own in-depth analyses that they buy from inside these enterprises, no problem. Only the Indian public is ignorant of the truth, and kept complacent by these "Befitting Reply Bloody Nose" declarations that come out from "Expert Defense Analysts".

Every year I do a phakt-phinding trip to Malloostan and view the "progress" of the massive 4-lane goat-track that is called National Highway 47. I must admit that there is progress - when viewed over a 30-year time period. But there is really nothing there to justify the sheer lack of action to complete the overpasses, FINISH laying the surface and clearing the debris, and marking the lanes and getting the traffic moving. Instead their idea of progress is to put up ever more obstructive barriers and slalom courses on the few stretches of road where there are 4 lanes with loud signs proclaiming:
SPEED KILLS!! SLOW DOWN! ****** POLICE
Fortunately there is enough time to read these, since the "speed" cannot go above 60kmph.

The "bridge" (a loose term) over the Chalakudi river has been "under construction" for at least 30 years. Is that area really short of tax revenue? Absolutely not.

If they put a crew of a few thousand with a few machines, and just COMPLETED the thing, it would take maybe another month, maybe 2 at the most, to get the entire NH47 finished as a 4-lane road with traffic lights and maybe even marked lanes. Then they could get started on all the other projects that need doing, first an elevated controlled-access highway running over the same land as the NH47. That should take about 3 years.

Similar considerations apply in most enterprises where the govrmand controls money, technology or progress. There is no excuse for allowing this to continue in critical defense areas.

In the 1950s-60s, under far worse conditions, the GOI set up some very good initiatives, under the 5-year plans, to develop critical technologies and catch up with the rest of the world. But in the past decades, these have all been allowed to go under the chalta hai syndrome.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby SwamyG » 16 Aug 2009 16:22

And why do some believe the next Dalai Lama would be from India?

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby satya » 16 Aug 2009 16:58

Two issues :

1} Taiwan was top priority for PLA . Not anymore ................. TSP ain't a priority nor is LoC just a shift in priorities for IA .

2} PRC exports have more or less reached their plateau in 2008 ,its downhill. Sons of Heavens don't wanna share wealth with their subjects so need new dumping ground .........

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby shiv » 16 Aug 2009 17:17

narayanan wrote:Re: Haraam Goog*e, the small question that arises is, what is the ground reality of the borders? Anyone been beyond the haraam marked "borders" ACTUALLY in recent times? Reason for my question is that until about 1999 most desis believed that the map of J&K as shown in the desi textbooks showed actual borders.


:lol: Valid question

Take a look at the image below that I generated from haraam Goog*e. The inage shows the India China border at a spot in Arunachal Pradesh. Incidentally the border marked here is exactly the same as that found on Bhuvan so it is acurate from the Indian viewpoint.

If you follow the river down frm the point on the border marked "550m" you come to a Google user marker and the link takes you to a picture of a "Siang river expedition" with Tata Sumo and yellow Indian numberplate.

Go deeper into India downriver and you see Chinese text marks and the link gets you a pic of PRC boats with the Red commie flags.

I have embedded both pics in the image

Image

It is possibre that the comlades of the communist palty ale encoulaging the firring up of Alunachar Pladesh with Chinese pic. You know how tightly the internet is controlled in China. :P

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Patni » 16 Aug 2009 17:36

India simply is not prepared for one! by all accounts on the thread so far we are not anywhere close to being confidant that we can fight back invading forces coming down Himalayan peaks. I believe biggest mistake by GoI and power that be has been in not doing anything much at all in north east infrastructure buildup! I believe some of it might be an attempt at not changing current status quo with a hope that our eastern neighbours would do same and of course they didn't!

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby enqyoob » 16 Aug 2009 17:39

shiv: Vely vely intelesting obselvation. Matches what I saw when I tried the user marks in the Gobi.

Hello jingos-e-DOOs: This calls 4 action onlee.

Can u pls become Google Users and go on expeditions to Northern Arunachal Pradesh (wrongly marked as "Tibet" in Google) and put markers at the various Holy Places of yindoo lore? Show the temples, the idols, the pictures from legend. Pls learn from the Northern Neighbors that pictures can b placed anywhere that you can place pictures.

This is carred Caltoglaphic Squatting (CS). I don't c y v can't b as good at that as our deal fliends the rizalds r. V bt the Mao pajamas off them in the See Enn Enn Totally Honest Polls, hey? :mrgreen: Where is abhishekcc, our resident Augmented Democracy Expert, I wonder?

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby shiv » 16 Aug 2009 17:44

Staying on the topic of Arunachal Pradesh - I have been doing a millimeter by millimeter examination of the border and adjoining areas of dlagon rand for roads and infrastructure on Haraam Google

Unfortunately resolution is maddeningly poor over most areas. However i have found one big road that enters Arunachel from China an much Chinese infrastructure including a dam, a power station, an air base (well known) and several mysterious areas than can only be dumps/storage areas. I will post images for anyone who wants to take a guess.

Image

Image

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby enqyoob » 16 Aug 2009 17:50

Obviously a kindergarten school and Buddhist Prayer Hall complex. :roll: You can tell by the regular shape of the long warehouses.

It takes a good number of 18-wheeler tractor-trailer trucks, or several freight trains, to fill up that many warehouses. This is what good road/rail infrastructure buys u.

Also, it would take a good number of direct hits to "reconstruct" that whole complex, which means numerous sorties by high-value strike aircraft, or many surface-surface missiles. And I bet there are good air defenses on the mountain ridges around this place.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby shiv » 16 Aug 2009 18:01

A very similar dump exists just up the road 20 Km from the Indian border. The road is at least 6 meters wide. But this dump is only 12 Km from the border as the crow flies and is within artillery range.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby kenop » 16 Aug 2009 18:07

CS is as good as domain-name registration frenzy of the 1997 era. People went for that dreaming benefits that did not materialize. I wonder what territorial claims can be made based on such ephermal things as content on the web.
Coming to the situation on the ground, IIRC it is a practice on such contentious areas to leave behind things like garbage that makes distict reference to the people invloved. Example, Indian soldiers leaving behind packets of Tiger biscuits (PLA doing the same with "Dragon" biscuits?) while on patrol. That has some we-were-here benefits of the psy kind.
However, the ulitmate test is about holding on to the posts (postions). AP is Indian territory.
AP issue is just used by the PRC to scare India. It has never seen the kind of emotion/urgency demonstrated about HK/Taiwan.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby samuel » 16 Aug 2009 18:18

We need to "crowd-source" the ongoing information war with PRC. Lots of people doing little things accomplish a huge goal. In our case, this could be

1. Virtual Recon...just browse "mm/mm" and mark interesting spots.
2. Target identification....analyze whether they are grain depots.
3. Map Labeling....self evident.
4. Change detection...each person focus on one patch and every X days go check what as changed.
5. Mark Navaids....if you wanted to go on a hiking trip how would you do it?
6. Tourist destinations....prioritized!

My BENIS-1 dream, posted months ago in whine thread, might come true!!!

S

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby shaardula » 16 Aug 2009 18:24

dont want to sidetrack the discussion here. but dont know why people are getting depressed at reality check at a time when we need to be alert.
oh! well 63 years was a good run. sashTaabdi is now poorthi. lets call it a day and head to the forests.

so learned mullahs. in real terms, if china attacks, what is that prevents tsp from conducting a theater workshop for its non-state "actors" to our west? unkil is only interested in not having to confront their acts on a day to day basis.
Last edited by shaardula on 16 Aug 2009 18:27, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby shaardula » 16 Aug 2009 18:26

what is BENIS-1? last night i posted something about the need for a China: Harmony In Peace And Development, Also thread. burur jirga to please to consider.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby shiv » 16 Aug 2009 18:31

It would certainly help if Bhuvan were to have hi res images of China. An image of a dam was unrecognizable on GE until a slightly sharper image on Bhuvan revealed it as a dam. Intil then I had labelled a pipe leading from the dam as a railway line. I followed the pipe to the end and found what appears to be a hydel station.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby enqyoob » 16 Aug 2009 18:36

kenop: To paraphrase Lawd Bin Tennis:

More things are wrought by propagandoos than this duniya dreams of..
Wherefore, let thy web pages.
Rise like a fountain for the duniya raat and din. ...


Never underestimate the ignorance of the Decision-Making Classes. Remember Dan Qayle? Or Dubya? Or Muddlin' HalfBright, Or MilliGaand?


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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby samuel » 16 Aug 2009 18:45

>>>OT<<<<
Shaardula, BENIS-1 puts the BENIS thread to work :) A GNU licensed, community owned, backyard launched, open-source (closed-destination) radio flyer over where people on a thread want it to go, and take, well, pictures. It logs in to BRF as any user, follows conversations and does what needs to be done! BENIS-1 requires a cellphone (airtel account ok with data connection, over northern AP need satphone pcmcia card), gps, bhuvan with GE, internet account, core-2-solo only, RT-Linux, AHRS -cheap, Li-ion, cameras.

-------------
If you pick off locations on map references on Bhuvan, can we write code to pull corresponding segments from GE to provide a "magnifying lens"?

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby ShauryaT » 16 Aug 2009 18:56

Watch what PRC does not what it says. Tawang, the finger area are the battles of the past and is defended quite well. PRC will be st*pid to take us on in that area. Nearly 75% of Chinese arms exports go to south asian countries! TSP, BD, Myanmar and SL. Worry about more Coco Islands and Gwadars. The strategy is to helm India and keep her occupied in the IOR and south asia. PRC calls us an arm of the crab. The crab being the US. What PRC is busy doing is creating its own arms, it being the crab. The arms of PRC's crabs are TSP, BD, SL, Myanmar, N. Korea. It is busy wooing Nepal and Iran. Malaysia and Indonesia will likely accept Chinese hegemony in the future. Most of these arms of the crab are targeted at India.
Last edited by ShauryaT on 16 Aug 2009 19:10, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby brihaspati » 16 Aug 2009 19:04

Two of the things that India could immediately do, is train Tibetans and Uighurs in special operations and put them back into their native territories. One of the means of upsetting the fixed - dump, missile battery, barracks based PRC strategy now (and apparent superiority) is to copy a leaf out of Mao's book itself. Keep it fluid, highly mobile, harass, and move on. PRC in its pride, and especially the PLA is now suffering the same hallucinations as when the Marathas began to show off their regular positional warfare armies - to be soundly licked by Abdali. The war should be taken back into Tibetan plateau and the Uighur territory. Make it slow, bleeding, and debilitating. Force them to change over to face mobile warfare - this will break up regular formations and planned invasions.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby shiv » 16 Aug 2009 19:11




Ah how could I have missed this one?

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby RayC » 16 Aug 2009 19:55

Paul

汉语是天作梦

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Paul » 16 Aug 2009 23:21

Taking Kargil as an example, the IA had to have 10:1 superiority in numbers to evict the Porkis. If the PLA wants to take the offensive in AP, then they need at least 200k-300K crack troops in AP to take on the offensive. Last I read the IA strength is 100K here. Consider the Rezang La episode. It took them at least a thousand men to overrun a company strength defensive position. Magnify this a hundred fold this time, the eklautas will be in for a really hard time of their lives.

They will need at least half a million troops in Tibet to launch a offensive in the east and fight a holding war in Aksai Chin. The troops will have to acclimatized, ammo and supplies have to dumped to sustain logistics for at least a 20 -30 day war. It will take them at least 1 year to get all this done.

Performance wise, IA performance was much better in Ladakh than in NEFA. The logistics is much better in Ladakh. They will be aware of this. They may be willing to give up territory in Aksai Chin if they can gain territory elsewhere.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby harbans » 16 Aug 2009 23:27

China is desperate for Arunachal before this Dalai Lama cops it. Most likely the nex Dalai Lama is goin to be an Indian passport holder. :mrgreen: The Chinese cannot tolerate the image loss and complete loss of legitimacy on Tibet it will face under those circumstances. It will be the shock wave of the century. One that could turn the Middle Kinggdom Empire upside down with it's knickers in a tight twist..this is the problem. I think the GOI has got wind of this..

PS: Whatever happened to that boy from Nepal, Ram Bahadur who was meditating for the last 5 years no food and water? He should be completing 6 years now. Why not him as the next Dalai? Or that may not figure as the Nepali is not following the Tibetan Tantrik Buddist model. But all said and done, i doubt China will take the risk of the next legitimate Dalai being from India. It has to claim Buddhism fully to get legitimacy..maybe the Chinese will have to declare Buddhism as the Official religion. In which case the CCP is finished..India would have again won without firing a shot at the Han..coming to think..... :D
Last edited by harbans on 16 Aug 2009 23:35, edited 1 time in total.


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