Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

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RayC
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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby RayC » 19 Aug 2009 08:42

I am one of those well meaning idiots! I have no illusions on the monumental nature of this job, but am willing to debate that it does make sense and India can acquire the means to execute such a mission and that it did be worth it.


The situation the US and ISAF is in, in similar terrain, with all its economic, military and political strength and with a govt that is friendly should be enough of an indicator.



If India can better them, then sure!

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Cain Marko » 19 Aug 2009 10:00

Bade wrote:I had with great caution mentioned giving Nepal a big hug earlier :mrgreen: since was not sure if I would get chased out by the guru-log here at this blasphemous statement. Now adding Lanka to that would make me even more happy. I am a maximalist as far as land accretion goes. I would not leave BDesh alone either, at least the northern half of it to expand the chicken neck for easier swallowing of the chipanda proxies in the Northeast. Nepal and Bhutan are prime targets by PRC. So we should be relentless there with our hugs.

As for Taiwan, sounds nice but do they really look up to India. If not we may be barking up the wrong tree. (ek hi khet ki mooli and all)


Saar is there no limit to thine apetite. bade admi bade apetite!

CM.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby SwamyG » 19 Aug 2009 10:52

harbans wrote:India should also seek reunification of Nepal with plenty of sops..give them some sort of special status and stuff, proectorate tpes at the minimum. Paki's and Chinese are becoming very strong in the area too..Nepal needs to be got into the fold in a big brotherly strongg hug... :mrgreen:

I know a few Nepalese. Some of them are pissed at the way Skikim came to us. And they will not be keen to join India - though many come to even deep South in India for education.
Last edited by SwamyG on 19 Aug 2009 10:59, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby svinayak » 19 Aug 2009 10:55

SwamyG wrote:
harbans wrote:India should also seek reunification of Nepal with plenty of sops..give them some sort of special status and stuff, proectorate tpes at the minimum. Paki's and Chinese are becoming very strong in the area too..Nepal needs to be got into the fold in a big brotherly strongg hug... :mrgreen:

I know a few Nepalese. Some of them are pissed at the way Skikim came to us. And they are not keen to join India.

SInce they dont know the games of PRC and Uncle they are blind. It will take them a decade or so to change their view.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby SwamyG » 19 Aug 2009 11:04

First what exactly are the plans? Second, let us not assume that some in Nepal would not know. Third, the aam admi in any country will never know the full picture - so their emotions and opinions will be based on what they know. Fourth, if they come to realize that say Pandabhoomi wants to take Nepal do you think they will come running to India wanting to be one of our states? If you think that is the case why would that be?

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby harbans » 19 Aug 2009 11:32

Swamyji, the idea may not be to encapsulate it like Sikkim, but as a protectorate at the minimum, like Bhutan. IMHO Bhutan is as Buddhist as Tibet or AP. The Indian protects it's Northern borders with China. At best we can sa if the opt for parliamentary representation in India, they get X number of seats and an immediate developmen package of 10 billion USD or something like that..the imperative is not actually expanding our land base as much as keeping Han influence out of the region. Maoism is murdering traditional Nepali culture and ties with India..the idea is again that big bigg hug we are iving will ultimately help they themselves in preserving their and our traditions..Han does'nt care about cultural niceties one bit. If the Nepalese don't realize then it's the BIG hug with options clearly laid out on the table. We'll buy them, but won't allow them to sell themselves to Han..

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Ben Thomas » 19 Aug 2009 12:04

I was wondering whats stopping the Chinese from gobbling by Balochisthan under some pretext?
If I were a Chinese General (wearing a Chanakya cap), I would certainly give it a very good thought. :lol:
Why bother grabbing Indian soil (Arunachal) when it might be easier to take on a smaller country (Porkistan) when its army is facing serious internal challenges.

Deeper than ocean and taller than mountains friendship should not be a barrier, remember in 1962 Hindi-Chini bhai bhai did not stop them from attacking India.

Is Arunachal a decoy? - Is this possible at all? or did I drink too much today?

Perhaps a seperate thread -- I will leave that to the adminullahs.
Last edited by ramana on 19 Aug 2009 22:27, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: edited out offensive word. ramana

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby harbans » 19 Aug 2009 12:15

^^ Ben no offence but 'Chinki's' is an offensive term used pretty loosely by many elite Indians, that also rightly pisses off a lot of our NE folks. Secondly you should look up Balochistan on the map yourself and not as a Chinese general to see how and where it's contiguous to China, if at all before making that statement. China barely has connectivity to Pakistan albeit one KH that is susceptible, and it passes through the Karakoram, AK NWFP area..before reaching anywhere Balochistan is.

As for the decoy thing, yes it's a possibility. India should step up intensive patrolling in Bhutan and Sikkim areas too.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby RajeshA » 19 Aug 2009 12:34

harbans wrote:'Chinki's' is an offensive term used pretty loosely by many elite Indians, that also rightly pisses off a lot of our NE folks.


It annoys me no end, when Indians use this term to denote other Indians from the North-East. :evil:

This should be made a capital crime with 40 whip-lashes, and as that is not possible this should at least be made a crime, deserving of a hefty fine. Moreover the other Indians need to be educated on this.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby RayC » 19 Aug 2009 12:42

It annoys me no end, when Indians use this term to denote other Indians from the North-East.


Do they?

But then it must be the refugees from West Pakistan that too who have made Delhi their natural home! :evil:

For Christ sake, I don't think anyone could be that stupid!

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby RajeshA » 19 Aug 2009 12:46

It's been many years, when I used to live in Delhi, and the term 'Chinki' was often used then to denote people from North-East. I don't know how the situation is now.

OT here!

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Ben Thomas » 19 Aug 2009 13:05

No offence taken Harbans ji,
Our interests are the same.

However I do not know of any Indian who would disrespect any other Indian based on his ethnicity.
This is news to me.
Jokes yes-- Disrespect No.
If this is happening at all .. I agree with RajeshA this should stop.

As for Balochistan, I am aware of its geographical location.

Is it not possible to gobble up distant land through economic/military deals?

Has not Porkistan handed over to China a size able portion of Kashmir already?

With China being its biggest supporter militarily and otherwise, Porkistan is going through its worst troubles since 1971 and some amount of arm twisting from Beijing can surely make them sit up.

If I were Chinese General I would surely like to grab Balochistan at least parts of it. Because it makes strategic sense,

specially with Balochistan in turmoil and its seperation from Pakistan becoming a real possibility.

Balochistan sounds far more attractive, if at all possible and hence the question.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby enqyoob » 19 Aug 2009 15:26

Well... Balochistan is part of Greater China Prosperity and Happiness Zone because Balochistan is all around Gwadar (aka Gwang Ho) so it is certainly contiguous to the PRC. I would say there is more Chinese infrastructure, investment and more PLA/ PLAN personnel there than there is PA investment, and quite probably the PLA is providing the weapons to kill the Paki policemen. It's only a matter of time b4 Balochistan is "ceded" to PRC to pay for all the aid from the Taller and Deeper Friends.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Ben Thomas » 19 Aug 2009 15:40

narayanan wrote:It's only a matter of time b4 Balochistan is "ceded" to PRC to pay for all the aid from the Taller and Deeper Friends.


I fully agree. PRC has more assets than India in Balochistan.
I sincerely hope our politicians are aware of this possibility.
The Chinese have already expressed their desire for IOR as their "zone of influence".

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Ben Thomas » 20 Aug 2009 07:06

Indeed we are in a Catch 22 situation here.
I do not think Balochisthan can be liberated without India's active military engagement.
If GOI does nothing : China will only strengthen its foothold in Balochisthan, Arabian Sea and IOR in the coming days.
If GOI uses force to liberate Balochisthan: China will encourage Pak to nuke India causing substantial damage
to our strategic assets and resources. The Chinese would be delighted at this outcome. Its "Peaceful Rise" and hegemony in Asia and beyond will continue unchallenged.

Either way its bad news. The question is which option is worse.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby shiv » 20 Aug 2009 07:48

After spending a few days looking at the China border from Arunachal Pradesh, I shifted my focus to Aksai Chin. Aksai Chin is a dead plateau - no vegetation and no(t much?) population. No settlements are visible. Only 1 road that I can see. The existing line of control with India is a set of mountains that are only slightly higher than Aksai Chin itself. Apparently Aksai Chin was part of Ladakh - but India (even in the 1950s) was not keeping an eye on its territory while China built a road connecting Xinjiang an Tibet via Aksai Chin :roll:

A triangle of Indian controlled territory juts up between Aksai Chin and PoK ("Northern Areas") - i.e the "Shagsam valley" area. The Karakorum pass is in this region. I tried desperately to locate a road leading to this pass and the pass itself - but failed. Karakorum pass (my mistake - actually it's Khunjerab pass :oops: ) is an important transit route between Cheen and Pukistan. I wounder how important it is for Gwadar/Balochistan activities. Considering that I have not even seen what the pas or a road to that pass looks like on haraamG I am not in a position to comment.

Not very far from here is Daulat Beg Oldi marked on Bhuvan, but unremarkable on either Haraam Google or Bhuvan.

I am merely an armchair speculator, with no real expertise Aksai Chin appears like territory that
1) Is difficult to hold militarily from the Indian side - but then again I am not sure how easy it is for anyone to "hold" that barren land
2) Anything that sits on that barren plain can be blasted from the air - there appear to be no hiding places. If there are the hidden critters will still require supplies - and the routes will be openly visible.

This does not look like a great area to make war at first glance using sat pics alone. However I don't know what routes exist between the rest of India and Aksai Chin, and I need to look at the Chinese side in more detail.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby brihaspati » 20 Aug 2009 08:22

It is possible to go across from the Nubra Valley and the gap around Pangong Tso. The first SE and then NW routes do lead into Aksai. However, it still needs "mountain troops". There are many gaps and mountain trails here imposible for any army to keep track on, especially if in true mountaineering style people start moving early before dawn.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby SwamyG » 20 Aug 2009 09:17

harbans: Nepali culture will be a victim of geo-strategy - be it from a Chinese or Indian. India will allow more freedom for diversity to flourish within its borders. Nepalese have more chance of preserving their culture under GoI than Pandas. But does India's past actions give you the confidence that it will pro-actively EMBRACE or HUG Nepal? It has had 63 years, why has it not done till now? Why wait till the war is upon us? In spite of being of a Hindu majority, Nepalese have been given a political identity called - Nepal. The aam admi in the villages of Nepal or streets of Katmandu will not be happy with government of Nepal coming to India as another state. If Pandas have Indian Maoists to trigger riots and violence within India, Pandas will lose no time in creating unrest within Nepal.

If India wants Nepal to be within its orbit, it has to do more than what it has been doing so far - and then create enough support within the popluation for any sort of arrangement. Once the war starts, and India says to Nepalese "Don't mind onlee, we will use your land onlee till the war, just allow our troops and spies!" Pandas will use their "assets" within Nepal. India needs to get Nepal within its orbit - NOW, and increase its own assets to neutralize Pandas assets.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby shiv » 20 Aug 2009 10:01

self deleted

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby pankajs » 20 Aug 2009 10:18


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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Gagan » 20 Aug 2009 10:31

This is the map of J&K with some of the must know important places marked out.
The Karakoram pass is where it is, north of DBO. The karakoram highway is in Northern Areas extending from Gilgit to Tashkurgan in Xinjiang (Marked out in halal florescent green)

Image

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Sanku » 20 Aug 2009 11:30

SwamyG wrote:harbans: Nepali culture will be a victim of geo-strategy - be it from a Chinese or Indian..


SwamyG I object to that remark, Nepali culture == Indian culture through and through, it does not and can not be a victim of geo-strategy from Indian side.

In fact given the currently open soft borders, I don't even see how any common Nepali or Indian will see the difference if we get into a loose union (ext affairs, defence, currency) heck barring a few no one will mind a tight union.

And there is a constituency which will welcome us -- if they have no other options.

I dont think any anti-India feeling will be any more than the *MK chauvinist hulla during the 50-60 time frame, a minor nuisance at best.

The conditions are all there -- all it needs is will.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby SwamyG » 20 Aug 2009 22:18

As I said, India will allow all diversity and prosperity. We are a country of sub-cultures that are inter-twined. It matters little what we think about the culture. If Nepalis think differently then what you or me think does not matter. http://madhesi.wordpress.com/2007/01/07 ... oin-india/

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Sanku » 20 Aug 2009 23:19

SwamyG wrote: We are a country of sub-cultures that are inter-twined.


Nice phrasing, and of course I concur.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby sanjaykumar » 20 Aug 2009 23:25

India is horizontally as well as vertically stratified. A city dwelling engineer in Jammu is in some ways (many ways) more similar to an engineer in Ootacamund than with a farmer in the Tawi districts.

Caste is a major element of this horizontal stratification and paradoxically serves as an extra-regional source of identity and cohesion.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby svinayak » 20 Aug 2009 23:42

Sanku wrote:
We are a country of sub-cultures that are inter-twined.
Nice phrasing, and of course I concur.

The sub cultures were deepened by social engineering and ruling regimes used it for ruling the people. Historically the entire social interaction is horizontal. The entire social interaction and information about society was within the people and social leaders but was gradually taken over by the British(over 100 years). This information flow was used for sociology studies and social changes without the Indians being aware of it. Sociology as a pseudo science is actually a news/information gather enterprise to control Indian society and Indian nation.

After independence the Indian govt continued the practice for social engineering and allowed media and foreign entities to manipulate and change the perception of one community vs the other community.

The Indian media is a product of this sociology studies and is being manipulated by foriegn entities and EJs groups.
Most of the Indian elite are unaware of this manipulation when they read the news and discuss the Indian society.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby SwamyG » 20 Aug 2009 23:57

...and the point is we need to get the aam Nepalese on our side long before there is a war between Shers and Pandas.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby svinayak » 21 Aug 2009 00:06

SwamyG wrote:...and the point is we need to get the aam Nepalese on our side long before there is a war between Shers and Pandas.

Nepali society/family is an extension of the same society for thousand years and ancient years.
The Maoist project is to create this manufactured barrier within the large extended family and create artificial silos.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby anirban_aim » 21 Aug 2009 01:12

Narayanan wrote:"In the 1960s-70s, India's armed forces were not equipped to deal with a massive Chinese invasion. In those days the general expectation was that China would use a mass "human-wave" attack. Completely without basis, Indians of the time believed that the American propaganda about 100:1 casualty ratios (1 American killed for 100 Chinese killed) would automatically apply to India-China wars as well, since we are so superior. But even then, like the Americans, we were also losing wars to the Chinese PLA, because Mao had declared that even if 300 million Chinese were killed, that would leave 400 million.

Today, the Chinese Armed Forces are well trained, motivated, and VERY well armed and equipped. They have MASSIVE firepower and reserves of weapons. It is very doubtful whether India has "qualitative superiority", all claims about the Su-30MKIs notwithstanding.

In 1962, the unquestioned superstition goes, if the IAF had not been held back, the Chinese supply lines would have been shattered and the Chinese would have been annihilated. Would they, and if so, why did the UN forces in the Korean "police action" fail so utterly and why is the DMZ in Korea so close to Seoul rather than being at the Yalu river?

In the 1960s-70s, at least there was SOME sign of wisdom in the GOI - there was mandatory NCC in high schools and colleges. The kids of those days thus learned some basic skills such as crawling under barbed wire, and marching, and even carrying .303 rifles, and most importantly, some sense of discipline inc. the concept of taking orders. So the possibility existed that the Chinese would run into widespread resistance and the local level.

How about today? Does today's cellphone-in-ear generation have a clue?

The Indian Admiral who laid out the simple truth, should be awarded a medal. India cannot counter China without
a) massive improvements in infrastructure
b) really large scale production of missiles (I mean short-range)
c) massive, well-guarded distributed stores of rifles and ammo all over the country
d) much more emphasis on training and discipline in emergency response and local civil defence, also as a backup to reduce basic training times for a large number of possible conscripts.

China is funding and training Naxals etc. to act as 5th Columnists all over India, from northeast to east to south to southwest and middle. The lack of awareness and the apathy in India are truly apalling."


Dear Sir,
I don't know whether a newbie (with fairly limited knowledge) should be joining issue with a moderator on this, but I would like to add a few things in addition to your comments.

IMHO, for quite some time the brass & the civvies higher up seemed to have no clue or appetite about the Chinese threat. (A small piece of evidence - The ARC going to seed, before the Afgan conflict gave it a lease of life & the sheer lack of infra in the NE) Further, I believe that, the recent flurry of activities that are being carried out are a direct result of the fresh intelligence from brother agencies and of the indegenous spy satellites (more importantly so, IMHO), something we didn't have earlier. I believe whatever they have seen, is so compelling that they can't ignore or look the other way any more. (These are my humble assumptions)

Further, the response seems to be at 2 levels,

1. Make it impossible for China to make specatacular gains in the first few days a conflict.

2. Since (again IMHO) though qualitatively and technologically PLAAF equipment (presumption) might be dated but their sheer nos will make it impossible for India to continue a war for long (more than 10-15 days), the much bigger economy and the sheer size of PLA are other facors. So the staregy seems to be hold for a few days & then look for tacit & direct US support to ward them off (Evidence, IMHO increasing willingness to align with the US on global issues, recent millitary purchases & the probable MRCA deal)

Also the steps taken on ground viz;

1. Massive ramp up of the BRO in NE (two new CE(P)s), with huge mandate on GS & CSG roads. Also floating the trans Arunachal Highway idea.

2. Reopening of older Airforce bases (like DBO)

3. Moving the Su-30s to Tezpur (which had the MOFTU)

4. Proposed raining of 2 new Mountain Divs.

Atleast as of now, these developments look like very piece my untrained eye. Also, reminds me eerily of the positional warfare theory of B.M. Kaul Vintage.

Hope that we move much on a much faster scale with a comprehensive strategy & the chinks hold long enough till we are through. Would hate to see, a repeat of 62.
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Reason: edited quote tag. please use the quote tag so that people can understand easily which is your writing.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby enqyoob » 21 Aug 2009 03:45

They do seem to have followed my recommendations with extreme speed. :mrgreen: New roads & bridges, airfields, frontline strike aircraft... I think shiv has pictures of the new TransArunachal road running from Dilli to Lhasa, and I hear it looks pretty cool!

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Ben Thomas » 21 Aug 2009 06:51

We must rethink our policies of blindly supporting "One China" theory as well.
Tibet is certainly not Chinese.
Successive govts in India have supported this theory: where's the Quid Pro Quo? or is it just appeasement of a larger neighbour? :(

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Sanku » 21 Aug 2009 12:48

narayanan wrote:They do seem to have followed my recommendations with extreme speed.


No actually some one stumbled on Vivek Ahuja's story -- shortly after wards every thing he moped about not happening started happening and he mysteriously disappeared.

Vivek Ahjua has been kidnapped by Babu's and is living on roti-dal in a room in South Block. :mrgreen:

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Karna_A » 23 Aug 2009 07:04

shiv wrote:After spending a few days looking at the China border from Arunachal Pradesh, I shifted my focus to Aksai Chin. Aksai Chin is a dead plateau - no vegetation and no(t much?) population. No settlements are visible. Only 1 road that I can see. The existing line of control with India is a set of mountains that are only slightly higher than Aksai Chin itself. Apparently Aksai Chin was part of Ladakh - but India (even in the 1950s) was not keeping an eye on its territory while China built a road connecting Xinjiang an Tibet via Aksai Chin :roll:


The road connecting Xinjiang and Tibet via Aksai Chin has lost it's previous strategic value with the advent of Tibet Railways. Now the Chinese would not mind giving back Aksai Chin as long as they can have the Tawang district in return.
Admiral Mehta is right when he says there is lack of preparation on Indian side. What is needed is to make Tawang a Stalingrad for Chinese.
Some basic ways are as follow
(a) 10000 ex-soldiers should be settled every year in Tawang/AP every year and constantly trained in guerrilla warfare
(b) Underground bunkers and arms depots should be built in all towns in AP
(c) All school/College students should have compulsory NCC and arms training.
(d) All District collectors and SP should be trained in disaster management.
(e) The Governor should always be the ex-Army Head with special powers to control the guerrilla force.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby RayC » 23 Aug 2009 11:13

Aksai Chin and Ladakh are not totally barren.


The river banks and stream have trees and the plains have the alfa alfa grass. The DRDO are growing vegetables in controlled conditions and a cabbage is as big a three footballs rolled in one!


Maps and Google may not give the true picture of the ingress routes. There are.

DBO is OK for China, but there after the Shyok River will prove problematic, more so dependent upon when the Chinese launches an attack.

Prima facie, it appears difficult to defend, but it is not so bad including from the air. In HAA, even PGMs have not had their effectiveness as possibly it would have had at lower altitudes. It is true that the lines of communications (LOC = rds) are exposed, but the stocking policy caters for such contingencies.

There is no route from the Nubra Valley to Aksai Chin. However, what is ingress for the Chinese is the same for us to apply.

The two 'highways' connecting Xingjian to Tibet have their value notwithstanding the Tibetan Railway..

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby SwamyG » 27 Aug 2009 12:05

CNN IBN reporting a skirmish in Nathu La between Chinese and Indian troops. India army denies it.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby John Snow » 27 Aug 2009 12:26

That pretty much confirms it when IA denies it.

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby ravig » 27 Aug 2009 22:42

SwamyG wrote:CNN IBN reporting a skirmish in Nathu La between Chinese and Indian troops. India army denies it.


Was in Gangtok on Wednesday. the local driver mentioned some plans that 'the main highway 31A to Gangtok and furthur to Nathu La would be blocked for 3 days' as Indian Army would be transporting some heavy goods...

dont know if both are linked...

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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Raj Malhotra » 28 Aug 2009 02:20

BRF will be glad to know that BSNL is in the process of awarding the worlds biggest telecom contracts to chinese companies & no doubt the equipment will be maintained by the chinese.

enqyoob
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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby enqyoob » 28 Aug 2009 02:25

CNN IBN reporting a skirmish in Nathu La between Chinese and Indian troops. India army denies it.


Now pls kindly read Dr. Santhanam's statement again, very carefully.

Prem
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Re: Could China and India go to war over Tibet?

Postby Prem » 28 Aug 2009 02:33

narayanan wrote:
CNN IBN reporting a skirmish in Nathu La between Chinese and Indian troops. India army denies it.


Now pls kindly read Dr. Santhanam's statement again, very carefully.


After the announcement of Edited , it was only question of when the PRC try checking Indian resolve. Expect more like this in BO's term as POTUS. Indians need to learn to be on their own when dealing with China.
Last edited by RayC on 28 Aug 2009 10:04, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Please do not use unparliamentary words like the one used by you describing a part of the anatomy


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