Chinese incursions into Indian territory: News and Analysis

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chaanakya
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Re: Chinese incursions into Indian territory: News and Analysis

Postby chaanakya » 22 Apr 2010 14:51

Sanjay M wrote:China Admits to Building Dam Project on Brahmaputra

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 842624.cms

Time to build up that Agni arsenal, to make China understand that water is existential for India.

It's a question of Issue Saliency.


Perhaps it also underlines the need to have a water sharing treaty with riparian states in Brahmaputra basin. But it would face tremendous hurdle, recognising tibet as part of china and AP as part of India. Perhaps one could think of delinking political considerations from Engineering considerations just like IWT.

It also underlines the urgency to research the Basin thoroughly , analyse the flow pattern etc. NEHU might like to undertake some studies jointly with NIH funded by GOI.

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Re: Chinese incursions into Indian territory: News and Analysis

Postby Sanku » 22 Apr 2010 15:04

Personally I find Chaanakya's questions to be appropriate, to make the claim we have a some what of a NFU but which will fails in certain conditions, those conditions must be understood well.

The NFU is a excellent doctrine for various reasons, not the least of which is allowing use of Ballistic missile without raising Nuclear bogey, essentially the same thing done by US and USSR as part of cruise missiles and start. So if the doctrine is sought to be clarified or amended, it must be done with some amount of rigour.

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Re: Chinese incursions into Indian territory: News and Analysis

Postby Ravi Karumanchiri » 22 Apr 2010 21:04

Dear chaanakya,

Alright. I will take you at your word that you were using sarcasm and were engaged in intellectually detached 'gaming', if you say so.

Like you, I have no interest in a post-counter post flame war, especially concerning semantics or off-colour, off-the-cuff remarks made in jest or to conceive the inconceivable.

I do have an interest in protecting my personal and professional reputation. I hope you can appreciate that I am one of the few posters on BRF using my genuine name, and I cannot bear to be seen or perceived in agreement with irresponsible or morally reprehensible points of view. More basically; while I am not without a sense of humour, I am not inclined to chuckle at hypothetical constructs of life-and-death scenarios. I take these matters too seriously for that.

I would also like to kindly ask everyone to consider how their 'jokes' may be misperceived or mistakenly taken out of context. I recommend the use of an appropriate smiley (or bracketed disclaimer), so that humourless ABCDs like me, or, for example, the PM's bodyguards or others working in sensitive or critical capacities, don't get the wrong idea themselves. It is this kind of thing that gives external forces an opening into the minds of those Indians who could be turned against their own best interests and the greater good of India.

FOR THE RECORD: I am not a lawyer. I have never claimed to be a lawyer and I don't know how anyone could have come to that idea.

Alright – moving along now…….

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Re: Chinese incursions into Indian territory: News and Analysis

Postby chaanakya » 22 Apr 2010 22:03

ramana wrote:
He is a lawyer and you can see how he develops his rationale. Us engineers cant write like that.

BTW, ABV did say after Parakram (~2004) that if enemy forces are massing India is unlikely to stick to NFU. The implication is on Indian side of border. Unfortunately it got drowned out in the press. Its the DDM, WKK, Track Pee and NPA mullahs who propagate a benign view of the NFU and emasculate the thinking and induce regular paroxysms of fear.

They are truely the fifth columns masquerdaing as the Fourth estate.


My mistake. I took this info at face value. It happens when one doesn't critically examine all info before being accepted.

As for the thesis, one needs to elaborate on all aspects before its ramifications being understood. You might find that your thesis leads to appalling ideas. And it is good that you clarified your position well in public. Appreciate that.

Being in India I would like to contemplate the conditions under which such options become exercisable. As you can see there is enough scope for debate. After all one needs to defend one's thesis before being awarded Ph.D.

I hope you would consent to "detached intellectual gaming" ( not my words)
And do look up "Sarcasm" , I don't mean to lower the seriousness of the doctrine that may decide fate of some.

There are serious questions to answer for tactical use of Nook inside one's own territory, operational ones as well, besides its scope and conditionality of use. Such a doctrine might lead to what is "inconceivable".

For such a tactics is employed by Lizard when faced with grave and mortal threat. Every ordinary student of Zoology knows that.

Fine with me, Will wait to see how it is further developed.

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Re: Chinese incursions into Indian territory: News and Analysis

Postby ramana » 22 Apr 2010 22:37

My mistake for assuming Ravi is lawyer.

Sorry about that.

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Re: Chinese incursions into Indian territory: News and Analysis

Postby RamaY » 22 Apr 2010 22:51

Sanku wrote:Personally I find Chaanakya's questions to be appropriate, to make the claim we have a some what of a NFU but which will fails in certain conditions, those conditions must be understood well.

The NFU is a excellent doctrine for various reasons, not the least of which is allowing use of Ballistic missile without raising Nuclear bogey, essentially the same thing done by US and USSR as part of cruise missiles and start. So if the doctrine is sought to be clarified or amended, it must be done with some amount of rigour.


I echo Sanku-ji's thoughts.

If our NFU is framed in such a way that it is to use nukes (tactical or maha-ton) on Indian soil then can we call it deterrence?

Ravi garu is right on one thing - That we must unite and think as a single entity. Even then, would I wait until the enemy to infect my arm so I can cut it? I do not know.

Would such a NFU deter TSP and PRC current strategy of bleeding India by thousand cuts? All we are deterring with our nuclear posture is a outright invasion. TSP cannot do it anyway. Can PRC invade, occupy and hold entire India? Ever? Even a nuke-noode India?

That leaves the right option to constrain India by non-state actors. West, PRC and TSP are already doing it. So where is the salvation?

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Re: Chinese incursions into Indian territory: News and Analysis

Postby chaanakya » 22 Apr 2010 23:10

^^^^While thinking about terrorist problems ( inflicting thousand cuts on India) and Maoist problem, I constantly drift to the Story of Raktabija and his annihilation by Goddess Kali. As for Unkil blessing PK , I am reminded of Bhasmasur. ( though not to compare Lord Siva with unkil)

We might draw some inspiration from pouranic stories.

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Re: Chinese incursions into Indian territory: News and Analysis

Postby Ravi Karumanchiri » 23 Apr 2010 12:07

I had an off-the-wall idea – probably a crazy idea – and it started a whole process of further crazy ideas that might just be worth following a little further. So, I will beg for your indulgence, and plead for your consideration and sane and sober second thoughts…

Everyone knows how the Chinese government is keen to restrict its citizens from accessing uncensored information, particularly on the internet. The Chinese government is also in the habit of keeping its citizens from enjoying free and unfettered conversation with foreigners. At the same time, someone in the PLA is periodically sending small patrols of soldiers over the China/India border, in ‘disputed areas’, sometimes even armed with spray paint (!), which they use to write Chinese language graffiti on innocent Indian boulders and such (oh, the horror of it!).

Imagine the next patrol of PLA soldiers, intent on crossing the border to paint something provocative on an unsuspecting Indian boulder: As they get closer to the line of actual control, they catch sight of something odd through their binoculars. It looks like writing, CHINESE WRITING ON THE INDIAN SIDE, but they have to get closer to read it all. As they approach further, they can read more and more of it, and it tells them of the ancient history of friendship between India and China. Imagine enormous billboards festooned with Chinese language messages expressing cross-border friendship! Imagine, right down on the border line, AN INTERNET CAFÉ promising free and uncensored internet access to all uniformed PLA members!

Okay, that’s sort of a joke – but not entirely. Think about it seriously for a moment: What would the Chinese soldiers do? What would their commanders and government do after they returned to base? Taken further: What if it became common knowledge that any uniformed member of the PLA can receive immediate political asylum in India? What impact would it have, to sincerely offer defecting PLA soldiers a chance to live in free India, perhaps even a job, maybe in the IA, or perhaps civilian training or even a scholarship? How many PLA soldiers would avail themselves of the opportunity? How would they perceive the offer? What would they tell their PLA comrades? What would ordinary Chinese people think about it?

Would the incursions come to a stop? How would everyone react? What would they say and how would it be perceived?

My guess is that there wouldn’t be much more graffiti, and either the PLA would have to send stern political officers along with the patrol in order to ensure the ideological integrity of their soldiers, or the incursions would stop altogether. Of course, if the soldiers are sent with political minders, they will know they are being supervised, and this will probably not sit well with them.

What do you think?

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Re: Chinese incursions into Indian territory: News and Analysis

Postby RamaY » 23 Apr 2010 18:19

Ravi Karumanchiri wrote:Okay, that’s sort of a joke – but not entirely. Think about it seriously for a moment: What would the Chinese soldiers do? What would their commanders and government do after they returned to base? Taken further: What if it became common knowledge that any uniformed member of the PLA can receive immediate political asylum in India? What impact would it have, to sincerely offer defecting PLA soldiers a chance to live in free India, perhaps even a job, maybe in the IA, or perhaps civilian training or even a scholarship? How many PLA soldiers would avail themselves of the opportunity? How would they perceive the offer? What would they tell their PLA comrades? What would ordinary Chinese people think about it?
...
What do you think?


:rotfl: Ravi garu,

This must definitely be a joke. This is WKK version on eastern border. Did anything good come from wagha-border? Lets call this ailment - Nathu-La KK = NKK.

Seriously, I will give you a hint. You wanted to visualize entire Bharat (its geography, people, resources, sub-kiloton nukes etc) as a single person/body. Apply that logic to PRC too.

Tibet and Tibetans are a different matter. They are different entity/consciousness. What India must do at appropriate time is to recognize Tibet and establish nation to nation contacts with its exiled and local govts. What will PRC do? Invade Bharat? In such a scenario we can validate your doctrine.

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Re: Chinese incursions into Indian territory: News and Analysis

Postby Ravi Karumanchiri » 24 Apr 2010 15:04

^^^^^^^^^^
Dear RamaY, Sir;

Yes, I can readily admit that it started as a joke in my mind: QUESTION: How do you keep the PLA from crossing the LAC into India? ANSWER: Provide uncensored internet access on the Indian side! :rotfl: (Tee! Hee! Hee!)

But in every joke, there is a kernel of truth. That kernel of truth is what makes it funny (to me, anyway), and in this particular instance, it got me thinking…

But before I elaborate, consider a serious question: What would a (former) West German soldier do if a (former) East German soldier tried to cross into (the former) West Berlin? What would a South Korean soldier do if he saw a North Korean soldier trying to cross the DMZ, with his rifle butt up in the air? I think in both cases, the West/South soldier would try to help the East/North soldier to defect. Not only is it the right thing to do from a moral standpoint, but the defecting soldier may actually have some valuable information to share, perhaps of military consequence, or a message from a dissident group.

The very serious question that these scenarios raise is: What would an Indian soldier do if a Chinese soldier was trying to cross the LAC into India, with his rifle butt up in the air? Seriously, I’d like to know. I don’t think this is a joking matter, because we all know that Chinese people face some extreme oppression in their own country, and it is not inconceivable (to me, anyway), that one or a group of Chinese soldiers might seek refuge and asylum in India. I would argue that it behoves India to help them to defect, for the sake of the disaffected Chinese soldiers, and also for the potential intelligence gain. What do you think?

With regards to my earlier post concerning the actual limits of India’s NFU doctrine: I don’t think anyone would consider the use of even a tiny tactical nuclear weapon if a dozen-man PLA patrol armed with spray paint came across the LAC on a graffiti mission. That would be ridiculous in the extreme, obscene sense – and a very, very bad joke indeed. Now, if X-thousand PLA troopers came across the LAC along with Y-hundred tanks and Z-hundred APCs – that would be a different matter, entirely, and not a joke at all. But, I don’t want to get into all of that in this post. What I’d like to do is stick with the topic of jokes, while we’re on the subject.

If you ask me, my jokes above, and any jokes we might make about using a (nuclear) cannon to kill a (PLA) fly – these are not the first jokes tossed across the LAC.

Before I elaborate, consider the words of Mao Zedong; “When the enemy advances, withdraw; when he stops, harass; when he tires, strike; when he retreats, pursue.” This one line quote encapsulates so much of the Chinese military doctrine that it is worthy of much study, especially by Indian thinkers, particularly anyone participating in this thread. Hypothetically assuming for a moment, that the decision to send a patrol of a dozen PLA soldiers across the LAC to spray paint Indian boulders was taken at the highest levels :roll: – this can only be termed as harassment. We must consider what the objective of this harassment was – rather than simply feel harassed out of a reflex.

If I were to guess (and also assume this graffiti raid was a genuine tactical decision taken at the highest levels); I would guess that the Chinese leadership believes getting Indians to bolster their defences would drain budgets from civilian development objectives – particularly if India has to spend money on foreign equipment to do so. (Providing yet another strong case for indiginization of military procurement.) Another (more likely) guess would be that the Chinese leadership probably hoped for some kind of political effect in India – perhaps embarrassing the sitting government – because they would prefer to see the opposition take power. Personally, I would be very interested to hear the opinions of Indians on these prospects. (In particular, I would like to see a time-series analysis revealing what continued incursions may say about factionalism in China -- with incursion incidents set along a timeline of coincidental Indo-Sino political developments, governmental remarks, large business deals and currency and securities trades, etc.).

Practically speaking – for the life of me – I cannot for one moment imagine a high-level consensus decision by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, resulting in a dozen-man incursion intent on graffiti! That in itself is a joke! :lol: I don’t think the CCCPC can even conceive of any number less than a hundred! My best guess is that some uppity PLA captain thought he would score some 'red-star' points by pulling a stunt like spray painting Indian boulders. He probably didn’t even do it himself, but instead, he dispatched one squad of his eager-to-please minions to undertake the incursion and vandalism. I guess; that was his joke on all of us.

The even bigger joke was the whole hue and cry put up by the Indian media! This stoked the Indian public’s ire, and the GoI was thus motivated to raise two new mountain divisions, reopen a number of disused airfields and deploy Sukhois to them, along with radars, AAMs, and soon, coverage by M777s and other arty systems (not to mention purchase of miltransport aircraft, balloon-mounted radar arrays, satellite surveys, high-altitude helicopters, et cetera, et cetera). The joke, ended up being on them, I guess.

Or perhaps, the joke is on India, because the Chinese aren’t so stupid as to send columns of armour through narrow mountain valleys, and over treacherous mountain passes. (Remember all those 'Milan' ATGMs India bought? When fired from heights, they naturally become top-attack munitions, and the NAG ATGM is top-attack by default, so the Chinese aren’t likely to push through the mountainous LAC with armour, especially when you can stop the whole column by knocking-out the first dozen tanks, or with a well-placed rock slide.) I know the whole Sino-Indo border isn't mountainous; and perhaps this gives a further clue as to the Chinese intentions/plans -- but I don't know and wouldn't guess about that here and now.

In the final summation, the joke is probably back on China though; because they have built their (*paper*) wealth and socio-political stability on the maintenance and growth of an export-oriented economy. With the US economy on the decline and with credit markets likely never to rebound to where they were pre-2008 crash; the only import market in the whole world large enough, and fast growing enough to support Chinese exporters is India – and Indians have a very long memory (unlike Americans, who tend to buy on price alone -- politics and human rights be damned). I know that many Indians would sooner do-without, than they would ever consider buying a Chinese-made product, even if it was their only choice. Sure, the Chinese may win some shelf space from Indian retailers, as a trade relations concession, but I know many Indians who have put that item back on the shelf when they read the label that says ‘Made in China’. Silly stunts like spray painting Indian boulders will certainly have a very negative effect on Chinese trade prospects in India (where you will find one quarter of all the *gold* ever to have been mined).

Incidents like PLA incursions across the LAC (or China’s continued support for the murderous TSP), will in the final summation; serve to constrain Chinese economic prospects, curtailing the ambitions of the Chinese state, perhaps leading to what they call ‘social disharmony’, threatening the very survival of the Communist Party of China.

That’s no joke. :!:


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Re: Chinese incursions into Indian territory: News and Analy

Postby Jarita » 20 Jun 2010 07:02

Congress govt is an ongoing source of bad news where Indias borders are concerned

LAC has come 50 km within India, claims BJP

http://m.timesofindia.com/PDATOI/articl ... 068688.cms


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