Deterrence

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wig
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Re: Deterrence

Postby wig » 25 Sep 2019 10:13

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/p ... 2019-09-24
Pak appears to have set up some new facilty for nukes

extracts
High-resolution satellite images, accessed by India Today TV's OSINT team, confirm the presence of a new facility 800 meters from the old nuclear workshop at Kahuta's Khan Research Laboratory.

When analysed closely, the pictures reveal how a piece of land turned from an empty helipad in 2014 to a possible nuclear centrifuge facility in 2019.

more details
It's surrounded by a thick two-meter boundary wall and a camouflaged rooftop, the pictures show in what are the telltale signs of a clandestine nuclear program.

"Satellite images that I saw very clearly indicate the intent that was from that point onwards. I think it is very surprising that the international community hasn't made enough noise about it," noted retired Air Vice-Marshal Sunil Nanodkar, when shown the latest pictures.

"The facility is coming up close to the Kahuta facility where there is a lab from which weaponisation of Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities is taking place. I think we need to watch it clearly in terms of what is going to be its capacity. We know it's a nuclear facility."

and
"These pictures bring you very close to Iranian and North Korean facilities. If today we say it's only Iran and North Korea -- and not Pakistan -- then there is something fishy. I think we need to take it up. We need to raise it on all international forums," said Vice-Marshal (retired) Nanodkar.

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Re: Deterrence

Postby SSridhar » 30 Sep 2019 08:21

Navy’s ‘second strike capability’ is the most significant as nuclear deterrent: Rajnath Singh - Business Line
In the backdrop of Pakistan’s repeated talk about nuclear war, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said that Indian Navy’s “second strike capability” as a nuclear deterrent is “most significant”.

“Second strike capability” is an assured capability of an armed force to respond to a nuclear attack with its own nuclear weapons.

Addressing the Navy personnel on aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya, Singh said, “I am aware that after the Pulwama attack, when the country responded effectively through strikes on terror camps in Balakot, the Western Fleet was immediately deployed in a strong posture in the northern Arabian Sea. This degraded the ability of our adversary to deploy and ensured they did not attempt any misadventure at sea. In this context, the role of Indian Navy to have a credible ‘second strike’ capability as a nuclear deterrent, is most significant.

The Defence Minister’s remarks come just days after Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, in his maiden speech at the UN General Assembly, drummed up hysteria over nuclear war while targeting India over Kashmir.

India had hit back saying the “threat of unleashing nuclear devastation qualifies as brinksmanship, not statesmanship”.

Singh said Indian Navy’s role is critical in ensuring the energy security and economic growth of the country and noted that about 90 per cent of India’s international trade by volume and about 70 per cent by value is carried by sea.

“As we move towards our goal of five trillion dollar economy, the volume of maritime trade will only grow in times to come. Thus, I firmly believe that the role of the Indian Navy in general, and the Western Fleet in particular, is also critical in ensuring the energy security and economic growth of the country,” he added.

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Re: Deterrence

Postby SSridhar » 03 Oct 2019 19:00

The nuclear ayatollahs are re-starting their doomsday scenario.

India-Pakistan nuclear war may kill 125 million people: Study - PTI
As many as 125 million people may die immediately if India and Pakistan engaged in a nuclear war, and plunge the world into a "nuclear winter" that could lead to global climate catastrophe, according to a study.

"Such a war would threaten not only the locations where bombs might be targeted but the entire world," said co-author Alan Robock of Rutgers University-New Brunswick in the US.

The study, published in the journal Science Advances, looked at a war scenario that may occur between India and Pakistan in 2025.

While both the neighbouring countries have waged several wars over Kashmir, they could come to possess a combined count of 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025, the study noted.

The researchers added that vegetation growth would decline globally by 15 to 30 per cent on land, and the oceans could see a productivity decline by 5 to 15 per cent.

Overall, the study noted that recovery from all these impacts would take more than ten years since the smoke would linger in the upper atmosphere.
"Nine countries have nuclear weapons, but Pakistan and India are the only ones rapidly increasing their arsenals," Robock said.

He added that the continuing unrest between the two nuclear-armed countries, particularly over Kashmir, made it important to understand the consequences of a nuclear war.

According to the researchers, the nuclear weapons in the year 2025 could range from 15 kilotonnes in explosive power -- the same size as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima by the US in 1945 -- to a few hundred kilotonnes.

In the scenario, the researchers estimated that 50 to 125 million people could die from the direct effects, with additional deaths from mass starvation also possible worldwide.

"Nuclear weapons cannot be used in any rational scenario but could be used by accident or as a result of hacking, panic or deranged world leaders," Robock said.

According to Robock, the only way to prevent accidental usage of nuclear weapons was to eliminate them.

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Re: Deterrence

Postby Aditya_V » 03 Oct 2019 19:20

A logical person would say, Jihadi groups could cause nuclear Armegedon, so any person involved in this Nuclear Guarantee to Terrorists should be Banded from have any relation with the civilized world. i.e the Pakistani state or Chinese who gave the Nukes.

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Re: Deterrence

Postby Kashi » 03 Oct 2019 19:42

Alan Robock of Rutgers University-New Brunswick in the US.


That name again.....

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Re: Deterrence

Postby wig » 23 Oct 2019 09:44

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comme ... 50838.html

India needs to amend its nuclear doctrine by Lt Gen Harbhajan Singh ( Retd)


excerpted
Our nuclear doctrine suffers from serious infirmities. It only deals with a nuclear conflict scenario. It does not get meshed with territorial security, which is the main Indian concern vis-a-vis China and due to which India went nuclear. India’s strategy has to be to deter/dissuade China from embarking on any large-scale offensive.


excerpted
Escalation leading to MAD scenario

India’s doctrine envisages using ‘massive nuclear retaliation’ in case an adversary resorts to first use of any kind of nuclear device, even a TNW.
It implies that if Pakistan uses a sub-kiloton nuclear weapon to wipe out an offensive Indian Army division/brigade in the desert of Rajasthan, India would immediately drop a number of strategic nuclear bombs on Pakistan cities and strategic targets. And it is implicit that in return, Pakistan would nuke Delhi, Mumbai, Jodhpur, Chandigarh etc.
Whatever the doctrine, in practice, the moment Indian troops are attacked by a TNW, there would be intense diplomatic pressure on India to not retaliate with nuclear weapons. Certainly not with strategic weapons and escalate the situation. The Indian leadership is most likely to succumb to such international pressure. A graduated nuclear response with TNWs is likely to be tolerated, though.
Also, in such a scenario, will the Indian political leadership have the courage to bear the consequences of creating a situation for MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction)? This is highly doubtful.
In view of the above, such a theoretical nuclear doctrine, which envisages raising the stakes from a tactical to a strategic level suddenly, seems “less of deterrence and more of pretence.”
The adversary’s leadership is unlikely to bite it and hence it does not have the required deterrence value.
Last edited by wig on 23 Oct 2019 09:58, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Deterrence

Postby ramana » 23 Oct 2019 09:55

The argument is flawed.
The primary goal of deterrence is to prevent use of nuclear weapons.
By assuring massive retaliation in response to Paki TNW it deters them from using them in first place. In fact they complained about this many times.
The escalatory tit for tat is exactly they want as it internationalizes their problem.
Tue general is looking at nukes as usable weapons.
All nukes are strategic and breach a strategic threshold.
This was understood by all those who commanded the deterrent.
In fact ACM Mehra clarified there are low yield and high yield weapons. And usage is strategic always.

In fact its feasible to use a large yield in some circumstances.

As for minimum deterrent is what deters the adversary maximum.

And for tolerance from others powers no Indian leader from Mrs. Gandhi including spineless MMS ever cared for tolerance on that quarter.

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Re: Deterrence

Postby wig » 23 Oct 2019 09:58

Pakistan's nuclear proliferation in news again amid Turkey's quest for nukes


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 706257.cms
excerpts
Recep Tayyip Erdogan was reported conveying his desire for Turkey to go nuclear at a party convention.
"Some countries have missiles with nuclear warheads … (But the West insists) we can't have them. This, I cannot accept," Erdogan was reported
telling his party faithful in remarks that have caused a stir in Washington. "If the United States could not prevent the Turkish leader from routing its
Kurdish allies, how can it stop him from building a nuclear weapon or following Iran in gathering the technology to do so?" the New York Times asked in a report on Monday, pointing out that "already Turkey has the makings of a bomb program: uranium deposits and research reactors - and mysterious ties to the nuclear world's most famous black marketeer, Abdul Qadeer Khan of Pakistan."

According to "Nuclear Black Markets", a study of the Khan network by the London think-tank International Institute for Strategic Studies, companies in Turkey aided AQ Khan's covert effort by importing materials from Europe, making centrifuge parts and shipping finished products to customers, the report said. A riddle to this day is whether the Khan network had a fourth customer besides Iran, Libya and North Korea, the report wondered, pointing to intelligence reports that believe Turkey could possess "a considerable number of centrifuges of unknown origin" by virtue of being Khan's fourth customer. Khan's nuclear network extended to Malaysia too.
Pakistan got away with its nuclear proliferation in 2004-2005 because of perceived need by the Bush administration of Islamabad's help and the transit facility Pakistan offered in Washington's war on terror in Afghanistan. The country was caught pants down proliferating nuclear blueprints; but Khan was made to confess on TV and asked to fall on the sword by claiming he did it on his own accord without government sanction, even though it was apparent that he had used government machineryand facilities with the knowledge and concurrence of the Pakistani establishment

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Re: Deterrence

Postby ramana » 03 Nov 2019 04:45

INDIA and the Bomb
Dr. Raj Krishna

This is a significant discussion of three major Indian alternatives to the Communist Chinese nuclear threat, and a proposal for a limited but independent nuclear capability.

Published in the December 1965 Edition of Military Review, pg. 74


https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals ... c-1965.pdf


Please read and reflect on the analysis published in Dec 1965 Military Review of US Army!!!

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Re: Deterrence

Postby ramana » 06 Nov 2019 20:42


wig
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Re: Deterrence

Postby wig » 09 Jan 2020 17:48

India's Su-30 Jets Are Now Armed With Nuclear BrahMos Cruise Missiles

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... les-112016
extracts
India’s nuclear command has begun receiving fighter jets armed with the country’s most advanced, supersonic cruise missile.According to media reports, India’s Strategic Forces Command (SFC) has begun receiving 42 Su-30MKI air dominance fighters modified to carry air-launched BrahMos supersonic cruise missile

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Re: Deterrence

Postby LakshmanPST » 09 Jan 2020 18:10

wig wrote:India's Su-30 Jets Are Now Armed With Nuclear BrahMos Cruise Missiles

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... les-112016
extracts
India’s nuclear command has begun receiving fighter jets armed with the country’s most advanced, supersonic cruise missile.According to media reports, India’s Strategic Forces Command (SFC) has begun receiving 42 Su-30MKI air dominance fighters modified to carry air-launched BrahMos supersonic cruise missile


I have a question (I'm assuming the answer is not classified)--->
Will these 42 jets be operated separately in 2 different squadrons directly under the command of SFC... Or will they be distributed to select bases individually, where they continue routine operations and will be armed with Brahmos only when required...???

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Re: Deterrence

Postby Gagan » 09 Jan 2020 22:38

Is the Brahmos N armed?

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Re: Deterrence

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 23:37

The article is just speculation from 2015 and republished.

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Re: Deterrence

Postby Haridas » 21 Jan 2020 22:41

ramana wrote:The argument is flawed.
The primary goal of deterrence is to prevent use of nuclear weapons.
By assuring massive retaliation in response to Paki TNW it deters them from using them in first place. In fact they complained about this many times.
The escalatory tit for tat is exactly they want as it internationalizes their problem.
Tue general is looking at nukes as usable weapons.
All nukes are strategic and breach a strategic threshold.
This was understood by all those who commanded the deterrent.
In fact ACM Mehra clarified there are low yield and high yield weapons. And usage is strategic always.

In fact its feasible to use a large yield in some circumstances.

As for minimum deterrent is what deters the adversary maximum.

And for tolerance from others powers no Indian leader from Mrs. Gandhi including spineless MMS ever cared for tolerance on that quarter.


My mind is super relaxed & dancing in joy at this K-4 test.
Shade more than Pokharan-2 :D :)

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Re: Deterrence

Postby Vips » 22 Jan 2020 00:11

Yes but K-4 with range of 3500 KMS is at best achieving full proof deterrence only against Porkistan. For the chinese, we will have to wait till K-6 (with 6000 KMS range) is operational. Hope this happens by 2024.
Last edited by Vips on 22 Jan 2020 04:38, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Deterrence

Postby Supratik » 22 Jan 2020 00:48

K4 range is 3500-5000 kms. Indian missiles state the lower end of the range. It is China-specific.

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Re: Deterrence

Postby kit » 22 Jan 2020 04:37

wig wrote:Pakistan's nuclear proliferation in news again amid Turkey's quest for nukes


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 706257.cms
excerpts
Recep Tayyip Erdogan was reported conveying his desire for Turkey to go nuclear at a party convention.
"Some countries have missiles with nuclear warheads … (But the West insists) we can't have them. This, I cannot accept," Erdogan was reported
telling his party faithful in remarks that have caused a stir in Washington. "If the United States could not prevent the Turkish leader from routing its
Kurdish allies, how can it stop him from building a nuclear weapon or following Iran in gathering the technology to do so?" the New York Times asked in a report on Monday, pointing out that "already Turkey has the makings of a bomb program: uranium deposits and research reactors - and mysterious ties to the nuclear world's most famous black marketeer, Abdul Qadeer Khan of Pakistan."

According to "Nuclear Black Markets", a study of the Khan network by the London think-tank International Institute for Strategic Studies, companies in Turkey aided AQ Khan's covert effort by importing materials from Europe, making centrifuge parts and shipping finished products to customers, the report said. A riddle to this day is whether the Khan network had a fourth customer besides Iran, Libya and North Korea, the report wondered, pointing to intelligence reports that believe Turkey could possess "a considerable number of centrifuges of unknown origin" by virtue of being Khan's fourth customer. Khan's nuclear network extended to Malaysia too.
Pakistan got away with its nuclear proliferation in 2004-2005 because of perceived need by the Bush administration of Islamabad's help and the transit facility Pakistan offered in Washington's war on terror in Afghanistan. The country was caught pants down proliferating nuclear blueprints; but Khan was made to confess on TV and asked to fall on the sword by claiming he did it on his own accord without government sanction, even though it was apparent that he had used government machineryand facilities with the knowledge and concurrence of the Pakistani establishment


OT but Turkey seems quite determined to kick the US out of the Incirlik Air Base as a prelude to it's nuke quest.

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Re: Deterrence

Postby Vips » 22 Jan 2020 04:39

Supratik wrote:K4 range is 3500-5000 kms. Indian missiles state the lower end of the range. It is China-specific.


Still does not cover China fully if the submarine is near its base or in Bay of Bengal. Even the Chinese will feel threatened only with a submarine launched missile of 6000-8000 KMs range.

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Re: Deterrence

Postby Vips » 22 Jan 2020 04:43

kit wrote:
wig wrote:Pakistan's nuclear proliferation in news again amid Turkey's quest for nukes


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 706257.cms
excerpts


OT but Turkey seems quite determined to kick the US out of the Incirlik Air Base as a prelude to it's nuke quest.


Makes sense on why Erdogan is supporting pakistan so blindly. Blow back will be huge - Expect a grass eating Turkey if they go nuclear. Sick men of Europe will be terminally ill if USA/Western Europe impose sanctions. Turkey is totally dependent on the western block for its exports and tourism industry.

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Re: Deterrence

Postby kit » 22 Jan 2020 05:51

Vips wrote:
kit wrote:
OT but Turkey seems quite determined to kick the US out of the Incirlik Air Base as a prelude to it's nuke quest.


Makes sense on why Erdogan is supporting pakistan so blindly. Blow back will be huge - Expect a grass eating Turkey if they go nuclear. Sick men of Europe will be terminally ill if USA/Western Europe impose sanctions. Turkey is totally dependent on the western block for its exports and tourism industry.


Not quite Turkey is likely to get to eat its nuclear cake and have it too., given the US penchant to look the other way when its core interests are in line. I expect the US to look the other way as Turkey covertly goes nuclear, the best indication ...and watch for this ... is the news of Turkey "going to develop a nuclear submarine" with "safeguards" , BRF as usual ahead of the curve.

This is not if but when.

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Re: Deterrence

Postby ShauryaT » 22 Jan 2020 06:26

kit wrote:
Not quite Turkey is likely to get to eat its nuclear cake and have it too., given the US penchant to look the other way when its core interests are in line. I expect the US to look the other way as Turkey covertly goes nuclear, the best indication ...and watch for this ... is the news of Turkey "going to develop a nuclear submarine" with "safeguards" , BRF as usual ahead of the curve.

This is not if but when.
Look the other way for its core interests are on line? What US core interests are on the line to warrant the US to look the other way, and allow Turkey to go covert nuclear?


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