Deterrence

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wig
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Re: Deterrence

Postby wig » 25 Sep 2019 10:13

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/p ... 2019-09-24
Pak appears to have set up some new facilty for nukes

extracts
High-resolution satellite images, accessed by India Today TV's OSINT team, confirm the presence of a new facility 800 meters from the old nuclear workshop at Kahuta's Khan Research Laboratory.

When analysed closely, the pictures reveal how a piece of land turned from an empty helipad in 2014 to a possible nuclear centrifuge facility in 2019.

more details
It's surrounded by a thick two-meter boundary wall and a camouflaged rooftop, the pictures show in what are the telltale signs of a clandestine nuclear program.

"Satellite images that I saw very clearly indicate the intent that was from that point onwards. I think it is very surprising that the international community hasn't made enough noise about it," noted retired Air Vice-Marshal Sunil Nanodkar, when shown the latest pictures.

"The facility is coming up close to the Kahuta facility where there is a lab from which weaponisation of Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities is taking place. I think we need to watch it clearly in terms of what is going to be its capacity. We know it's a nuclear facility."

and
"These pictures bring you very close to Iranian and North Korean facilities. If today we say it's only Iran and North Korea -- and not Pakistan -- then there is something fishy. I think we need to take it up. We need to raise it on all international forums," said Vice-Marshal (retired) Nanodkar.

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Re: Deterrence

Postby SSridhar » 30 Sep 2019 08:21

Navy’s ‘second strike capability’ is the most significant as nuclear deterrent: Rajnath Singh - Business Line
In the backdrop of Pakistan’s repeated talk about nuclear war, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said that Indian Navy’s “second strike capability” as a nuclear deterrent is “most significant”.

“Second strike capability” is an assured capability of an armed force to respond to a nuclear attack with its own nuclear weapons.

Addressing the Navy personnel on aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya, Singh said, “I am aware that after the Pulwama attack, when the country responded effectively through strikes on terror camps in Balakot, the Western Fleet was immediately deployed in a strong posture in the northern Arabian Sea. This degraded the ability of our adversary to deploy and ensured they did not attempt any misadventure at sea. In this context, the role of Indian Navy to have a credible ‘second strike’ capability as a nuclear deterrent, is most significant.

The Defence Minister’s remarks come just days after Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, in his maiden speech at the UN General Assembly, drummed up hysteria over nuclear war while targeting India over Kashmir.

India had hit back saying the “threat of unleashing nuclear devastation qualifies as brinksmanship, not statesmanship”.

Singh said Indian Navy’s role is critical in ensuring the energy security and economic growth of the country and noted that about 90 per cent of India’s international trade by volume and about 70 per cent by value is carried by sea.

“As we move towards our goal of five trillion dollar economy, the volume of maritime trade will only grow in times to come. Thus, I firmly believe that the role of the Indian Navy in general, and the Western Fleet in particular, is also critical in ensuring the energy security and economic growth of the country,” he added.

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Re: Deterrence

Postby SSridhar » 03 Oct 2019 19:00

The nuclear ayatollahs are re-starting their doomsday scenario.

India-Pakistan nuclear war may kill 125 million people: Study - PTI
As many as 125 million people may die immediately if India and Pakistan engaged in a nuclear war, and plunge the world into a "nuclear winter" that could lead to global climate catastrophe, according to a study.

"Such a war would threaten not only the locations where bombs might be targeted but the entire world," said co-author Alan Robock of Rutgers University-New Brunswick in the US.

The study, published in the journal Science Advances, looked at a war scenario that may occur between India and Pakistan in 2025.

While both the neighbouring countries have waged several wars over Kashmir, they could come to possess a combined count of 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025, the study noted.

The researchers added that vegetation growth would decline globally by 15 to 30 per cent on land, and the oceans could see a productivity decline by 5 to 15 per cent.

Overall, the study noted that recovery from all these impacts would take more than ten years since the smoke would linger in the upper atmosphere.
"Nine countries have nuclear weapons, but Pakistan and India are the only ones rapidly increasing their arsenals," Robock said.

He added that the continuing unrest between the two nuclear-armed countries, particularly over Kashmir, made it important to understand the consequences of a nuclear war.

According to the researchers, the nuclear weapons in the year 2025 could range from 15 kilotonnes in explosive power -- the same size as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima by the US in 1945 -- to a few hundred kilotonnes.

In the scenario, the researchers estimated that 50 to 125 million people could die from the direct effects, with additional deaths from mass starvation also possible worldwide.

"Nuclear weapons cannot be used in any rational scenario but could be used by accident or as a result of hacking, panic or deranged world leaders," Robock said.

According to Robock, the only way to prevent accidental usage of nuclear weapons was to eliminate them.

Aditya_V
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Re: Deterrence

Postby Aditya_V » 03 Oct 2019 19:20

A logical person would say, Jihadi groups could cause nuclear Armegedon, so any person involved in this Nuclear Guarantee to Terrorists should be Banded from have any relation with the civilized world. i.e the Pakistani state or Chinese who gave the Nukes.

Kashi
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Re: Deterrence

Postby Kashi » 03 Oct 2019 19:42

Alan Robock of Rutgers University-New Brunswick in the US.


That name again.....

wig
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Re: Deterrence

Postby wig » 23 Oct 2019 09:44

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comme ... 50838.html

India needs to amend its nuclear doctrine by Lt Gen Harbhajan Singh ( Retd)


excerpted
Our nuclear doctrine suffers from serious infirmities. It only deals with a nuclear conflict scenario. It does not get meshed with territorial security, which is the main Indian concern vis-a-vis China and due to which India went nuclear. India’s strategy has to be to deter/dissuade China from embarking on any large-scale offensive.


excerpted
Escalation leading to MAD scenario

India’s doctrine envisages using ‘massive nuclear retaliation’ in case an adversary resorts to first use of any kind of nuclear device, even a TNW.
It implies that if Pakistan uses a sub-kiloton nuclear weapon to wipe out an offensive Indian Army division/brigade in the desert of Rajasthan, India would immediately drop a number of strategic nuclear bombs on Pakistan cities and strategic targets. And it is implicit that in return, Pakistan would nuke Delhi, Mumbai, Jodhpur, Chandigarh etc.
Whatever the doctrine, in practice, the moment Indian troops are attacked by a TNW, there would be intense diplomatic pressure on India to not retaliate with nuclear weapons. Certainly not with strategic weapons and escalate the situation. The Indian leadership is most likely to succumb to such international pressure. A graduated nuclear response with TNWs is likely to be tolerated, though.
Also, in such a scenario, will the Indian political leadership have the courage to bear the consequences of creating a situation for MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction)? This is highly doubtful.
In view of the above, such a theoretical nuclear doctrine, which envisages raising the stakes from a tactical to a strategic level suddenly, seems “less of deterrence and more of pretence.”
The adversary’s leadership is unlikely to bite it and hence it does not have the required deterrence value.
Last edited by wig on 23 Oct 2019 09:58, edited 1 time in total.

ramana
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Re: Deterrence

Postby ramana » 23 Oct 2019 09:55

The argument is flawed.
The primary goal of deterrence is to prevent use of nuclear weapons.
By assuring massive retaliation in response to Paki TNW it deters them from using them in first place. In fact they complained about this many times.
The escalatory tit for tat is exactly they want as it internationalizes their problem.
Tue general is looking at nukes as usable weapons.
All nukes are strategic and breach a strategic threshold.
This was understood by all those who commanded the deterrent.
In fact ACM Mehra clarified there are low yield and high yield weapons. And usage is strategic always.

In fact its feasible to use a large yield in some circumstances.

As for minimum deterrent is what deters the adversary maximum.

And for tolerance from others powers no Indian leader from Mrs. Gandhi including spineless MMS never cared for tolerance on that quarter.

wig
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Re: Deterrence

Postby wig » 23 Oct 2019 09:58

Pakistan's nuclear proliferation in news again amid Turkey's quest for nukes


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 706257.cms
excerpts
Recep Tayyip Erdogan was reported conveying his desire for Turkey to go nuclear at a party convention.
"Some countries have missiles with nuclear warheads … (But the West insists) we can't have them. This, I cannot accept," Erdogan was reported
telling his party faithful in remarks that have caused a stir in Washington. "If the United States could not prevent the Turkish leader from routing its
Kurdish allies, how can it stop him from building a nuclear weapon or following Iran in gathering the technology to do so?" the New York Times asked in a report on Monday, pointing out that "already Turkey has the makings of a bomb program: uranium deposits and research reactors - and mysterious ties to the nuclear world's most famous black marketeer, Abdul Qadeer Khan of Pakistan."

According to "Nuclear Black Markets", a study of the Khan network by the London think-tank International Institute for Strategic Studies, companies in Turkey aided AQ Khan's covert effort by importing materials from Europe, making centrifuge parts and shipping finished products to customers, the report said. A riddle to this day is whether the Khan network had a fourth customer besides Iran, Libya and North Korea, the report wondered, pointing to intelligence reports that believe Turkey could possess "a considerable number of centrifuges of unknown origin" by virtue of being Khan's fourth customer. Khan's nuclear network extended to Malaysia too.
Pakistan got away with its nuclear proliferation in 2004-2005 because of perceived need by the Bush administration of Islamabad's help and the transit facility Pakistan offered in Washington's war on terror in Afghanistan. The country was caught pants down proliferating nuclear blueprints; but Khan was made to confess on TV and asked to fall on the sword by claiming he did it on his own accord without government sanction, even though it was apparent that he had used government machineryand facilities with the knowledge and concurrence of the Pakistani establishment

ramana
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Re: Deterrence

Postby ramana » 03 Nov 2019 04:45

INDIA and the Bomb
Dr. Raj Krishna

This is a significant discussion of three major Indian alternatives to the Communist Chinese nuclear threat, and a proposal for a limited but independent nuclear capability.

Published in the December 1965 Edition of Military Review, pg. 74


https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals ... c-1965.pdf


Please read and reflect on the analysis published in Dec 1965 Military Review of US Army!!!

ramana
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Re: Deterrence

Postby ramana » 06 Nov 2019 20:42



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