Would like to propose an alternate model to target China during a nuclear war. Targeting specific cities will mean people just work around those areas so the impact is more short term. What can be done for a longer term impact?
Approach: Coastline first instead of City first. Use surface detonation instead of airburst. Use a combination of neutron Salted and fission/fusion.
Reasoning: Convert China medium term to landlocked to prevent working around the blast sites in cities. In this scenario, new cities will still have the problems of water, goods/people movement in large numbers etc.
1. Use counterforce instead of counter value to limit the responses. If not enough nukes then proceed to stage 1 directly
1. Target coastline first (and land bordering Burma and NK).
2. Use surface detonation instead of Air burst
so that ground contamination is higher
1. Target cities (X nos)
2. Target industrial areas
1. Use mainly neutron salted bombs mainly for western (bordering China with Tibet) and northern China(bordering inner Mongolia with China proper) boundaries as blast impact is wasted here
2. Target near river areas/cultivation areas in the interiors using neutron salted
Using some simple calculations.
For 150kt(100kt is also fine) assume longer lasting radiation impact of 50 km to 100 km. Core destruction is around 10 km but radiation will be more.
So stage 1 will need
So around 6000km/50km = 120 100 kt nukes
Stage 2 will need
Choose 50 of favorite cities (would spread out instead of targeting completely few cities ) so that support systems are stretched. If city is completely destroyed there is not much for the enemy to do
Chose another 50 of their vital industries like aircraft/research/large metal works etc
So stage 2 will need another 100
3000km/50 km = 60 nukes + survival areas = 60 so 120 nukes
So in total will need 120 + 100 + 120 = 340 nukes for medium term impact on the civilization.
Counter force will need much more.
Human ingenuity for a determined race is expected to come out of any problems but the above approach will move the recovery bar from 50 to 100 years.
Some bypass solutions for the impacted country by the above approach are
- Develop a massive aircraft industry
- Ask a large part of population to move to other countries
Of course we hope that all this is not needed. But if they threaten Indian civilization through Pak nukes then no point being squeamish about it.