shiv wrote:sudeep_j wrote:A thermonuclear weapon (or a large yield weapon) on the other hand, will allow you to kill many more of these elite and thus put the very survival of the nation at stake. There may be nobody left to repopulate, or the people left may not have sufficient intellectual capital to manage their affairs/conflicts/resources properly. Different regions may want independence, or new political structures or collapse to a more primitive form of political organization.
You are saying that bigger bombs will kill more elite and that it is the elite that drive a civilization. That is at least two assumptions. The elite are more likely to hide in shelters and have places to migrate to if they survive. But it is the people who do the daily grunt jobs who will die in the largest numbers and the assumption that the elite alone will carry on a civilization without the others in a post nuclear war scenario is simply speculation.
Even large yield bombs do not kill 100% of people. They just kill more. I believe that the killing power of high yield nuclear bombs is being overestimated and the danger posed by smaller yield weapons is being under estimated by what I see as a blind reliance on "number of dead" as the benchmark.
Even a hundred people being shot (such as in the 26/11 attacks) will slow down the economic output of a city. Why not just deploy jihadis at a larger scale then and call it 'credible minimal NFU...'? Counter value targeting as India does, perforce means killing more and more valuable human beings. In one post, you claim that large cities are so big that multiple megaton weapons will be needed to completely destroy it, in the very next, you flip to claiming that 20KT weapons will be sufficient. So which is it? The city of Karachi has a population of 250.3 x 100,000. Are you saying, a 20KT strike that kills/injures 750,000 people, 1/30th of the population will utter destroy that city? (numbers from https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt ... es=1&zm=14)
Ill bet on the city utterly stopping for a week, slowly begin to function from week 2 as the burden of providing care goes down as the injured die off, and the survivors getting back to work from week 4-5 or so. A MT weapon (or a couple of MT weapons) though, will clear the city completely, and there will likely never be a Karachi again.
shiv wrote:It is not the number of dead but the number of live people who matter and no bomb will kill 100% and all the bombs in the world cannot cover the whole world with blast damage. I am actually amused at the respect being shown to high yield and shocked at the assumption that two smaller yield weapons on a city will somehow lead to everything being OK very soon even after 25 or 50 cities are given that treatment. I can see zero analysis as to why this is being said except for "numbers of dead" as if a lot of dead means everything will simply end there.
Most Indian cities have large populations compared to the west. Even little towns have populations exceeding 50-100,000. There is a lot of spare capacity in sheer manpower, to apply to a post nuke scenario. Ill posit that let alone neighboring areas, large cities themselves will have the ability/spare capacity to manage a 20KT strike and continue.
You have a singular inability to see the scenario past week 1 of a nuke strike. Add to that considering peace time disorganization as the only possible state and you come with with utterly laughable scenarios of a 20KT strike killing a mega city. Yes, things will be disorganized. But if some elite survive, (such as your DMs, City Commisioners, Mayors etc.) they will organize the remaining populace, clear out the dead and carry on. They are not simply going to sit and wail. This will be even more so, if before the war, some training and exercises have been carried out and the civilian population has been organized into some kind of a home guard or civil defense units.
Historical experience of Tokyo, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Munich, Berlin, even London - all suggests that cities can survive substantial numbers of casualties and continue fighting. Feel free to situate your appreciation here instead of appreciating the situation though. That is your superpower.