Telangana Monitor

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 26 Jul 2010 05:02

Congress is committed for separate Telangana: Keshav Rao
http://www.thehindu.com/news/states/and ... 528495.ece

Two commit suicide over T-sentiment
http://www.deccanchronicle.com/hyderaba ... timent-743

Congress, TDP joined hands to defeat 'Telanganaism': BJP
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/site/Story ... m-bjp.html

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 27 Jul 2010 04:46

This useless suicide drama is continuing in AP There are some reports which now say some committed suicide because CBN jailed in Maharastra. Frankly the press people shou;d be booked for speading this kind of rubbish news items.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 27 Jul 2010 07:10

Why did DSrinivas lose in 2009?

There are more than 80,000 Muslim voters in Nizamabad assembly constituency, the highest number of Muslim votes in Andhra Pradesh. 2009 elections witnessed the lowest voter turnout in 2009 assembly elections ~39%

.

My theory is that this is nothing but YSR's master stroke to DS, who used to make statements like "YSR and I are a winning team, we won 2004 elections and we will win 2009 elections as well". Looks like majority, if not all, Muslims were influenced to stay away from 2009 elections.

That is how a little known BJP

candidate won this constituency. (looks like TDP as well lost its Muslim votes).

Fast forward 2010 -

DS Loses - Rosiah govt was successful in convince INC leadership on the negative affect of DS on a future AP government and INC has enough leavers (same level as YSR) to influence Muslim voters. Possibility of Telagana state in 2014.

DS Wins - INC leadership is convinced the usefulness of DS, given his recent statements during election campaigns, and decided to support him. He may become CM of AP, meaning no Telangana state.

Muppala garu -

1. Could you please pull the voting numbers for Nizamabad constituency?
2. What are the numbers for the constituency where Shabbir Ali lost?

Note: AP sub-elections are being held today 7/27

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 27 Jul 2010 07:48

^^^^
Most of these constituencies have an average of 10% muslims.

http://www.hvk.org/articles/0808/174.html
This was an earlier DC article.

Author: Mohammed Siddique
Publication: TwoCircles.net
Date: August 14, 2008
URL: http://www.twocircles.net/2008aug14/mus ... elimitatio

When Andhra Pradesh goes to poll some time early next year, its electoral map would have completely changed by the process of delimitation of the Lok Sabha and assembly constituencies. Along with this, its demographic map would have also undergone a major change giving a clear edge to the weaker sections and minorities in a much larger number of assembly and Parliamentary constituencies.

The Muslim minority, along with the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes will be in decisive position in more than 50% of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Muslims on their own will hold the key in 15 Lok Sabha seats including Hyderabad where they have the biggest presence of 70% among electorates. Similarly they will also have a decisive position in 40 assembly seats.

After Hyderabad, Nandyal will have the biggest Muslim presence with 17.77 per cent votes followed by 15% in Kadapa and Rajampet constituencies. In Nizamabad, Kurnool, Chevella, Zaheerabad, Guntur, Adilabad, Nellore, Narasaraopeta, Hindupur, Mahbubnagar and Anantapur, they will have a vote share of 10 to 14.94 percent.

This is much bigger than the earlier number of seats where the Muslims had a decisive say. The present delimitation process was carried out on the basis of 2001 census where in the statistics about the caste and religious affiliations of votes was available up to the mandal level.

There are not 40 assembly constituencies where the Muslims constituted morethan 15% of the voters. There are constituencies like Malakpet, Karwan, Goshamahal, Charimnar, Chandrayangutta, Yakutpura, Bahadurpura, and Nampally in Hyderabad where Muslims have 90% to 30% votes. They also have similar strong position in Guntur West and Vijaywada East constituencies. Nizamabad Urabn and and Kurnool have 34.72 and 34.38per cent Muslim voters.

Nellore, Kadapa, Zaheerabad and Rajendernagar, Nandyal, Bodhan and Rayachoti assembly constituencies have more than 25% Muslim votes.

However some of these Muslim dominated seats have been reserved for the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes.

The reason for BJP's victory in Nizamabad urban by BJP was because of polarization on the lines of religion. Shabbir Ali lost to TDP in Kamareddi (Nizamabad District). This time he is contesting from Yellareddi.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
TRS should sweep these by-elections. Anything else is a surprise.

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/hyderaba ... rt-bjp-726
The above article will give some hope for congress. In all these constituencies Muslims traditionally vote for INC. TRS going with BJP in alliance and KCR joining NDA even before 2009 results coming out will not go well with Muslims.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 27 Jul 2010 07:55

Muppala garu, I am watching TV9 live and that guy mentioned the 80k m-votes and 39% voting in 2009 details.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 27 Jul 2010 08:06

Muppalla wrote: TRS should sweep these by-elections. Anything else is a surprise.

I think so too. It is less likely that people who voted last year change much except for hardcore-TDP voters. Any votes TDP gains is gain for TDP. Any big shift of votes towards Congress or TRS will be real surprise which can have implications on what games Congress will play later.

Let me throw my prediction (wild prediction as I didn't do voting analysis of those constituencies)

TRS - 10
BJP - 1
TDP - 0
INC - 1 (rumor is Rs 1000/- per house * was distributed by Congress in some places)

*http://www.deccanchronicle.com/hyderaba ... -slips-053

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 27 Jul 2010 08:13

80,000 in Nizamabad urban is difficult. Total electorate is 2,29,000. Even 20% is not 80,000. it has about 17% which is about 38,000 votes. I think D.Srinivas will win here. If T-Sentiment was not there it is a stronghold of TDP. The news is that TDP wants to yield to INC to make D.Srinivas win. If he wins here he may replace Rossiah as CM. Then there will be more INC problems which is what TDP is looking for.

The unconfirmed news is that all the PRP folks will jump to TDP except for Chiru. If DS is made CM there will be more divisions in INC which may give TDP an outside chance to form a government in future once Telangana is decided in Dec/Jan. The strategy for TDP is let INC rot in the mess it created and once the mess is cleared, it can takeover.

I did not follow/analyze much this time as I am expecting TRS sweep. Otherwise the whole T-Sentiment and T-agitation is pure waste irrespective of T-formation. TSP news, wikileaks are more interesting to follow

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 27 Jul 2010 08:15

The TVs say lot of Muslims show interest in early voting. Would be interesting to see INC's fortunes given MIM's Samaikyandhra preference.

Vivek Raghuvanshi · Post by **Vivek Raghuvanshi** » 27 Jul 2010 08:18

http://competitiveintelligence.ning.com ... insurgency

Early warning on insurgency- What the Indian government needs to understand to mitigate risks which create corporate risks for foreign investment in India.

Some believe that insurgency is a military problem while others believe that insurgency is the result of outside interference while some others believe that
insurgency is caused by poverty.

For this we need to understand the social, political and economic conditions that are exploited by vested interests. The breeding ground for insurgency could be because
of either or some or all the factors. It could be because of breakdown
of traditional social organizations and customs because of cross
cultural influences or because of rapid improvement in social, economic
and political conditions or urbanization or industrialization or lets
say in the case of India, vacuum created by the departure of a colonial
power or it could be because of Indian government corruption,
ineptitude or tyranny or due to political instability in the center as
well as state governments, further widespread unemployment and
underemployment and poverty or deep social and economic divisions based
on caste and class divide.

The root cause of insurgency which the government needs to understand is the intolerable inconsistency between that which people think that they have a right to accept and which they
estimate they realistically are capable of attaining.

The gap which is created between value expectations and value capabilities is called relative deprivation. In India this is especially heightened by
the great class and caste and religious divide.

Out of the frustration in the local population between that which people think that they have a right to accept and which they estimate they
realistically are capable of attaining results in a gap called
perceived relative deprivation.

Because of Indian government corruption and ineptitude and due to political instability in the center as well as state governments in not being able to address
widespread unemployment and underemployment and poverty results in deep
social and economic divisions based on caste and class divide.

Out of this arise issues. What are issues? Issues are points in argument. These are the questions that have not been addressed by the Indian
government. These become the focal points of discontent and even
insurgency.

What the government fails to understand is that these issues belong to certain groups and when these issues are not properly addressed because of government ineptitude or corruption that a certain
sect of local population takes it upon themselves as to how these
issues should be readdressed. Members of local population who realize
that the government is incapable of addressing these issues take it
upon themselves to affect the behavior of the local population by
offering them utopia.

These insurgent leaders who advocate these issues become the rallying point for local population as the local population now starts to believe that which people think that they have
a right to accept and which they estimate they realistically are
capable of attaining which results in a gap called perceived relative
deprivation.

These issues advocated by groups become demands. Now if demands are properly addressed they result simply in the normal functioning of the political system. As it happens in India, issues
which belong to groups which are inadequately addressed become demands
which results in heightened perceived relative deprivation because of
the frustration in the local population between that which people think
that they have a right to accept and which they estimate they
realistically are capable of attaining thereby resulting in a gap
called perceived relative deprivation.

The resulting frustration in the local population arises because there is a dilemma between that which people think that they have a right to accept and which they
estimate they realistically are capable of attaining creates a gap
called perceived relative deprivation. This creates a suitable climate
and potential for political violence.

As is the case of Indian political history there have been precedents that whenever local population resorts to political violence that it is only then that the
government pays attention.

These issues belonging to groups advocated by opinion makers become demands and when these demands are not adequately addressed that have the potential for political violence
develop legitimacy not in legal terms but on psychological terms result
in popular support because of the frustration in the local population
between that which people think that they have a right to accept and
which they estimate they realistically are capable of attaining.

This results in directed focused political violence. This is where insurgent leadership takes over. The insurgents derive mileage because of the
frustration in the local population between that which people think
that they have a right to accept and which they estimate they
realistically are capable of attaining which creates a gap called
perceived relative deprivation. Insurgent leadership is quick to make
the local population understand that there are issues which have not
been addressed by the government. These issues belong to certain groups
and thereby insurgents gather popular support by advocating their
eligibility to address these grievances.

Then psychological operations are used by insurgent leaders who use human intelligence tools such as money, ideology, compromise and ego, and especially
ideology to create loyal cadres with the ultimate objective to seize
political control.

What the Indian government fails to understand is that the government has yet not been able to understand the coercive potential of insurgent leaders which is greater than theirs.

The insurgent leaders advocate their causes and win over local population and attempt to break the links that bind the people to the government.
This is because of the coercive potential of insurgents which is
greater than that of Indian government and to achieve this the
insurgent leaders destroy or try to destroy the legitimacy of the local
government and thereby create legitimacy for their own leadership.

The popular support to the insurgency happens because of Indian government corruption, ineptitude or tyranny or due to political instability in
the center as well as state governments, further widespread
unemployment and underemployment and poverty or deep social and
economic divisions based on caste and class divide.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 27 Jul 2010 08:20

RamaY garu, don't compare anything with the ones before 2009. After delimitation its area got shrunk and that changed the dynamics of that constituency.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 27 Jul 2010 08:34

The consistent message from elder and rural voters is

- There is no inconvenience with jumbo voter papers.
- There is no difference between EVMs or paper ballots
- None talks about whom they are voting for

Extremely matured and intelligent (cunning

) voters.

The TV crews are allowed into booths and they are really bothering staff and voters. The good side is that media presence (hopefully) discourages corrupt/booth-capturing politicians.

goutham · Post by **goutham** » 27 Jul 2010 22:40

It appears from the exit polls that TRS is going to sweep the byelections. At a minimum of 11 out of 12 and possibly 12 out of 12.

Telangana sentiment is well and alive.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Jul 2010 00:45

Looks like polticsparty guy is crying in his chai:

Polls predict INC and TDP wipeout in bye-elections.

http://www.politicsparty.com/telangana_2010.php

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 28 Jul 2010 03:49

ramana wrote:Looks like polticsparty guy is crying in his chai:

Polls predict INC and TDP wipeout in bye-elections.

http://www.politicsparty.com/telangana_2010.php

Currently they are all mostly TRS seats. There is no question of wipe out for INC or TDP.

In one of TV channel discussions, one Congress member was happily saying that TDP wouldn't get deposits. I was thinking if TDP loses like that, INC will lose too as TRS will get back same votes as last time as TDP can't cut their votes.

Only way INC will win a few seats is if TDP gets its pre-2009 votes back as there is no alliance with TRS this time.
Only way TDP wins is if they gain original votes and votes from INC and TRS.

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 28 Jul 2010 04:31

Telangana: Test for Congress as 12 seats go to poll today
http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/telan ... oday-39967

This is an acid test for the Congress. If 12 seats go to TRS or T-pro parties then there is no way out of this situation except encouraging their own congress in the rest to come to a consensus with Telangana regional congress and propose to the central government for a good solution which is to form two states with common capital Hyderabad until they agree for another capital. The Andrites interests properties and jobs in Telangana region must be protected and supported.

Sri Krishna committee to arrive in Rajahmundry tomorrow
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_sr ... ow_1415181

Death of T supporter leads to tension
http://expressbuzz.com/cities/hyderabad ... 93138.html

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 28 Jul 2010 06:34

Slowly I am starting to like and admire the leadership qualities of KCR. I hope BJP offers him Party presidents job at an appropriate time.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 28 Jul 2010 10:03

joshvajohn wrote:This is an acid test for the Congress. If 12 seats go to TRS or T-pro parties then there is no way out of this situation except encouraging their own congress in the rest to come to a consensus with Telangana regional congress and propose to the central government for a good solution which is to form two states with common capital Hyderabad until they agree for another capital. The Andrites interests properties and jobs in Telangana region must be protected and supported.

You seem to be reading too much into Congress losing as there is no real loss for any party other than TRS.

From the congressmen talk including Lagadapati (who by the way correctly predicted 2009 results and raised suspicion that elections were rigged) that TDP will lose deposits, you can reason their tactics for this elections. TDP losing deposits is what Congress want and not really winning any seats as TDP losing presence is the original goal for Congress creating situation for TRS to form, if not creating TRS itself .

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 29 Jul 2010 05:37

I have been reading reports on ACB trapping Govt officials on a daily basis in AP and the frequency has stayed high after Rosaiah took over. Is it just me or has ACB been provided a blanket go-ahead to clean up the govt delivery mechanisms ?

Mupalla and Shyam garus has there ever been any allegations of corruption over Rosaiah in the past? Atleast in the last decade i dont think he was involved in any amassing like babu or ysr

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 29 Jul 2010 06:19

It is said Rosayya was paid 1Cr to join Congress. But that was long time back. now there is a strong talk going around that his son is minting money.

T congress leaders are continuing their attacks are Jagan. INC is tring to make Jagan to leave the party?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Jul 2010 23:19

suryag garu, I don't much about Rossiah and corruption. He is very weak politically and hence anyone can do anything under his administration. It is a huge kichidi there and it is possible that the IAS types may be weilding more power.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Coming back to by-elections and Telangana:

As I said earlier though I do not like the split of state, I do not hate TRS for several reasons. My first preference in these elections would be TDP for obvious reasons but TRS is my second preference. If our state (or future two/three states) can get rid of INC that would be awesome ( which is very difficult

).

Looking from a Telangana perspective and leadership, they just do not have leadership even in a negative sense. Take the identity of the leaders killed or absconding in the Naxals, 90% of them are from coastal AP. We associate Maoists to Telangana region and they are also the ones who are jingoistic supporters of Telangana. That is the irony politics or non-politics.

It is extremely important to have leadership for that region whether divided or not. It is also important for the population to have focus to achieve their goals (good or bad). JHK may be a failed state today but Shibu Soren's JMM was such a focussed party to achieve JHK. They consistently won the region before they got the state.

KCR may be another Soren in terms of nuisance and charecter but for Telangana people he is the only leader who is representing the cause and all others are lip service. If his party gets less than 8 seats out of 12, I don't know if there will be a will power to persue the movement. Remember these are the seats that they hold and are their strongholds. In addition, a son and a son-in-law of KCR are contesting. Not that winning in their own seats will be an automatic approval of state split but to keep the argument alive they have to win.

Otherwise sentiment or no-sentiment the argument itself will be burried to death by the vultures who live on the sea coast.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 30 Jul 2010 04:49

Muppalla, in line of your post, here is analysis from Newsofap

Four outcomes for KCR, Rosaiah, Chandrababu & Chiranjeevi
http://newsofap.com/newsofap-21307-21-f ... sofap.html

...
Let us decode the results as a hypothesis. 01. TRS manages to retain all its seats, but the winning margin is lesser in some or most as compared to 2009. 02. Same as above, but winning margins are greater, in some or most, as compared to 2009. 03. TRS manages to loose one seat, irrespective of the winning margins of the other 11. 04. TRS manages to loose more then one seat, irrespective of winning margins in the others.
...
points 3 and 4 should be considered as an outright political obituary for the TRS. Even if the loss is by a single seat.
...

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 30 Jul 2010 04:57

If Congress loses, my guess is non-Telangana congressmen will have field day that Telangana congressmen despite supporting Telangana could not win seats and implore high command to tilt away from Telangana state.

My guess is Jagan will resume Yatra in Telangana to directly take wimpy congressmen that are opposing him. He can include Babli issue in his Yatra (sort of like his cause for Telangana)

New entertainment for next 2-3 months.

lsunil · Post by **lsunil** » 30 Jul 2010 11:42

NDTV flash: AP congress president D Srinivas looses seat to BJP's A. Lakshminarayana in nizamabad(urban) constituency.

In Pics : Muslims support BJP in Nizamabad

Minute-by-minute update from here

12:26 a.m. This is a referendum for Telangana says Madhu Yashki

12:16 a.m. TRS 06 BJP 01. EVM counting completed. TRS leads in all other seats. Waiting for the ballot results.

11:59 a.m. Odelu wins in Chennur

11:56 a.m. Lagadapati changes stance. Says we can sit and discuss on whether we can have 2 or 3 states !

11:53 Rosaiah says that he accepts the decision of the people

11:52 a.m. Aravind Reddy TRS wins in Manchiryala with more than 52,400

11:49 a.m. Lagadapati says he is dissapointed. Accepts the Telangana sentiment.

11:45 a.m. BJP wins with 12,600 votes. A slap on Samaikya vadis. Minorities vote for BJP !!!

11:35 a.m. BJP wins in NIzamabad. Yeppiii !!!!!

11:32 a.m. TRS wins in 6 places. BJP still leading in Nizamabad.

11:15 a.m. Votes shower for Telangana sentiment. Congress and TDP not seen any near. Jai Telangana !

11:10 a.m. BJP leads with 31,000 votes in Nizamabad

10:55 a.m. TRS leads in Manchiryala by 31,000 votes

10:54 a.m. Chennamaneni Ramesh leads by 28,000 votes

10:51 a.m. The site has gone slow . To be updated, just watch the live updates on home page. No need to refresh. It will automatically refresh itself. Thanks.

-Admin

10:45 a.m. Celebrations at TRS office. Its time for sweets and crackers

10:39 a.m. TRS wins in Dharmapuri by more than 58,000 votes

10:35 a.m. Lagadapati goes wrong yet again. Minoroties vote for BJP. No Jhanda. No Agenda. Only Telangana ! !

Independents get more votes than Congress and TDP in a couple of places.

10:21 a.m. Harish Rao wins with 95, 858 votes. TRS wins in Dharmapuri. BJP leads in Nizamabad by 22,000 votes. TRS leads in all other seats.

BJP leads in Nizamabad by 22,000 votes. All minority votes go to Telangana sentiment!!

Harish Rao wins with 95,858 votes. Its just Incredible !

Vinay Bhaskar leads by 6000 votes in warangal west !

TRS leads in Vemulavada by more than 14,000 votes

TRS wins in Dharmapuri. Congratulations to Koppula Eeshwar. TRS wins in 2 seats and leads in all others.

Celebrations every where!!! BJP leads by 13,000 votes !!

Harish Rao leads by more than 95,800 votes!!!

Looks like there is not point in updating . Its a tribute to Telangana Martyrs. Its TRS and BJP leading.

9:46 a.m : Still TRS leads in all 11 places and BJP in Nizamabad.

TDP and Congress all set to loose deposits in many places.

Correction : Harish Rao leads by more than 83,000 votes. KUDOS to all voters.

Harish Rao wins with 75,645 votes. A tribute to Telangana amara veerulu

TDP and Congress loose deposit in Siddipet.

TRS leads in Dharmapuri by more than 31000 votes

Chennamaneni ramesh leads by 6500 votes

Harish Rao breaks YRS’s record ! Its Telangana all the way !

Harish Rao breaks all records by winning with 71,000 votes.

First result out : Harish Rao wins in Siddipet

Blasting : Harish Rao leads leads by morethen 71,000 votes

Lovely. BJP leads in Nizamabad by 3006 votes.

Still TRS leading clearly in 11 seats and BJP in Nizamabad by morethan 1500 votes

TDP in worst situation. Congress records a dismal performance. A clear indication of Telangana sentiment.

BJP leads in Nizamabad by morethan 1000 votes

Want more than this? Harish Rao leads in Siddipet by 63500 votes !!!!

TRS leads in Manchiryala by 5800 votes

TRS leads in Vemulavada by morethan 3000 votes

Harish Rao leads by more than 51,000 votes

TRS leads in all 11 seats. BJP leads in Nizamabad. Its a clear sweep. Sentiment wipes out politics.

TRS leads in Sirpur by nearly 4000 votes

Harish Rao leads in Siddipet by 46,000 votes

TRS leads in Manchiryala by nearly 4000 votes

The voting clearly indicates Telangana sentiment. Kudos to all the voters

Sammaiah leads in Sirpur by 2000 votes

As of now, TRS leads in 11 positions and BJP in one position. All going as expected.

BJP leads in Nizamabad

Sammaiah overcomes Indra Karan Reddy’s lead in Sirpur by nearly 2000 votes

Indra Karan Reddy of Congress leads in Sirpur by 1900 votes. This is a paper ballot. Things bound to change by second round
TRS leads in Dharmapuri

TRS leads in 8 constituencies
Harish Rao leads by 32000 votes

KTR leads in Siricilla

Harish leads by 16000 votes

Etala Rajender leads in Huzarabad

Vinay Bhaskar leads in Warangal West

Harish Rao leads in Siddhipet by 7000 votes.

Venkarl · Post by **Venkarl** » 30 Jul 2010 13:09

....INC can kiss its a$$ good bye....I am happy for Lakshmi Narsimha of BJP for beating INC pig DS upside down...I hope TRS will keep upto peoples' expectations...

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 30 Jul 2010 13:13

lsunil wrote: In Pics : Muslims support BJP in Nizamabad

From the comments section

Vamshi Krishna

July 26th, 2010 at 6:40 pm

Great show !!…na hindu..na musalmana…na sikh…naa isai…

only TELANGANAA !!! JAI TELANGANAA !!!!

People loved this comment. Agree or Disagree: 16 1

Telanganaforever

July 26th, 2010 at 6:57 pm

Muslims know Telangana is good for them. T

They know they can protect thier intrests in Telangana State.

Their Wakf land will be used for the good of Muslims.

Urdu will get preference in Telangana State.

People loved this comment. Agree or Disagree: 20 1

Jai Telagnana

July 27th, 2010 at 1:00 am

KCR is much clear about Muslims in Telagnana than MIM leaders.

Dy.CM of Telangana will be a Muslim.

lsunil · Post by **lsunil** » 30 Jul 2010 14:04

Update from here

04:39 p.m.
Letters with Jai Telangana slogan written with blood found in ballot boxes at Korutla

04:12 p.m.
TRS leads in all 5 constituencies where the counting is in progress.

Yella Reddy : Y Ravindra reddy leads with 10,424 votes

Siricilla : KTR leads with 16,890 votes

Warangal West : D Vinay Bhaskar leads with 35,000 votes

Huzarabad : Etala Rajender leads with 23,555 votes

Korutla : K. Vidya Sagar Rao leads with 18, 932 votes

04:06 p.m.
TDP looses deposit in 5 places as of now.

03:05 p.m.
Pressure on DS to resign from PCC Chief post

02:46 p.m.
Paper slips with Telangana Na Jhanma Hakku written on it were found with votes in ballots.

02:10 p.m.
*Siddipet
Harish Rao wins in Siddipet by 95,858 votes. He has broken the record of Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy.

Warangal West
Counting in progress. TRS candidate D. Vinaya Bhasker leads.

*Nizamabad Urban
BJP candidate, E. Lakshmi Narayana defeated PCC President D. Srinivas by 11,981 votes.

Yellareddy
Counting in progress. TRS candidate E. Ravinder Reddy leads.

*Mancherial
TRS candidate Aravinda Reddy defeated Diwakar Rao by a margin of 77,900 votes.

*Chennur
TRS candidate Nallala Odelu defeated Congress candidate G. Vinod by 44,284 votes.

*Sirpur-Kagaznagar
TRS candidate Kaveti Sammaiah defeated Congress candidate Koneru Konappa by a margin of 15,214 votes.

Huzurabad
Counting in Progress. TRS candidate Etala Rajender leads.

Sircilla
Counting in progress. KCR's son, TRS candidate KTR leads.

Korutla
Counting in progress. TRS candidate K. Vidyasagar Rao leads.

*Vemulawada
TRS Candidate Ch. Ramesh defeated Congress candidate, V. Adi Srinivas by 50,443 votes.

*Dharmapuri
TRS candidate Koppula Eshwar defeated Congress candidate Laxman Kumar by 58,256 votes.

————————————————————————————————————————

1:08 p.m. Ballot paper results to be out only after midnight. TRS leading in all 5 seats.

12:50 p.m. TRS leads in Yella Reddy.

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 30 Jul 2010 14:09

Congress is losing all their chances in Telangana. Their credibility is also at risk here. They promised but never did. This might be the right time and last chance to go ahead with the statehood and then ask the people to live with it. A strong and reasonable decision by the peopl in the state is good. Ask the Congress in Power to pass the resolution soon in the assembly. Ofcourse there will be oppositon in either ways.

Telangana polls: KCR's nephew breaks YSR's record
http://news.oneindia.in/2010/07/30/tela ... ecord.html

AP bypolls: Congress loses from Nizamabad Urban constituency
http://ibnlive.in.com/generalnewsfeed/n ... 85700.html

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Jul 2010 18:15

I am extremely happy to see that TRS/BJP won all seats. Hearty congratulations to Telangana people, KCR, and Harishrao.

Hope Telangana people keep this unity in achieving their short and long term goals.

Excellent leadership, strategy and execution by KCR and Harish Rao.

lsunil · Post by **lsunil** » 30 Jul 2010 19:50

Update from here

05:59 p.m.
Ballot counting is taking time. Final results may be announced only after midnight. TRS is still leads in all 5 constituencies where the counting is in progress. Its a clean sweep for TRS.

Yella Reddy : Y Ravindra reddy leads with 20,500 votes

Warangal West : D Vinay Bhaskar leads with 43,000 votes

TDP looses deposit in 7 places.

Chandrababu Naidu says that they knew they would loose.

Celebrations at Osmania University. Students take up rally from arts college to NCC.

Seems congress has made a choice. It wants to be in seemandhra. It plans to break telangana sentiment through there. The 119 v/s 175 equation. Violent times ahead.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Jul 2010 20:12

lsunil,
What do you mean "violent times ahead"? Why?

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 30 Jul 2010 22:37

Jai Telangana!!

Results don't surprise me at all and just as I said here before slowly disengaging from this thread. There was never a doubt but some people needed to be disarmed/disabused and that is what the real import of these elections.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Jul 2010 23:53

Satya_anveshi wrote:Jai Telangana!!

Results don't surprise me at all and just as I said here before slowly disengaging from this thread. There was never a doubt but some people needed to be disarmed/disabused and that is what the real import of these elections.

Proabably yes and hope it will be peaceful and with no new Article 370 (higly impossible anyway) in middle India.

From a practical view point, it is still not going to be simple and the state is heading for a high pitched battle which unfortunately may see violence as well.

I see the following problems (nothing new though)
(1) Violence from and in Rayalaseema
(2) Hyderabad is a huge contention - I personally think this should not become an issue
(3) Jagan's high spirits and here is where the entire chaos will come from this person.

I expect that the government may fall and the state will be heading for a president's rule.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 31 Jul 2010 00:07

Flop show by PCC president D.Srinivas might make Delhi to think whether to continue with their current strategy or not.

- Status-quo is to keep moderates (D Srinivas as PCC, K Rosaiah as CM) and run the state
- Second option is to yield to Telangana rabble-rousers in Congress which is at the risk of losing other regions and there is no guarantee Congress will win all seats in Telangana
- Third option is go back YSR&co to pull it together. This is safer options to get required MPs and be blind to what happens in AP.
- Fourth option is to give power to leadership in K-G delta districts as middle-ground between two extremes T-men and J-gan

SriKrishna committee, ignoring any political manipulations, is likely to give neutral report that Telangana people want Telangana, other people want United AP and dismissing any claims that Telangana didn't develop leaving up to Central government to decide whether to divide state on state sentiment or not.

Babli showed non-Telangana people that lower-riparian states can get screwed. If Maharastra government can do it, what happens if power is to given to KCR with volatile and abusive behavior. I don't think United Andhra people will sit idle next time when KCR starts abusing again.

So the saga continues.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 31 Jul 2010 00:09

^^^ good if it moves to pres rule, atleast we have the right governor(esl narasimhan garu) in place to have the right administration for a year atleast. It will help clean up a lot of mess, if not anything atleast endowments dept would repair the temples. Frankly, the state is facing a huge financial crisis and we need someone to clean up and bring in a semblance of fiscal discipline.

Garus in this thread what is the big deal about the results, the seats were always trs strongholds and the results except for DS' were not surprising. It is hard to imagine that the BJP candidate was able to defeat DS again, is it some Chanakian calculation by the high command ?

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 31 Jul 2010 00:49

There is a need to do a Ramalinga Raju on YSJReddy to set the Rayalaseema political goons in place and bring their kind to the mainstream or even to be taken seriously while talking.

Further, it is one thing Rayalaseema goons showing their manhood to their *own* people by killing them in election politics but if it gets extended outside, it becomes a different game. They will burn their hands badly if they think they have monopoly on that kind of thing.

lsunil · Post by **lsunil** » 31 Jul 2010 01:04

ramana wrote:lsunil,
What do you mean "violent times ahead"? Why?

From here
Veerappa Moily sums it all up...

“These are the people who volunteered to resign [on the Telangana issue]. The people have chosen to vote for them,” he told The Hindu, adding, “We put up a good fight.” Asked whether the results did not put pressure on the Central government to push for the creation of a separate Telangana State, Mr. Moily said, “The matter is before the Srikrishna Commission. Let the report come.”

The congress isn't reading too much into the elections. Almost disinterested. They had already forecast'd the outcome. They got a chance to contest but it wasn't so. So what, nothing is changed. The ball is back in SKC's court. Actually, the ball will and has always remained with the 175 crew.

Telangana can prove itself again and again but it will never be relevant because it does not have any power beyond the borders of telangana. It bolsters itself from the inside thinking it is what is required to tame the outside. But it is not so. Telangana is not the only hopeful in india. The congress does not want to start the new tradition. It is already struggling through fiscal deficit. It is hoping that through SKC, it might be able to make deals with telangana and/or buy more time till whenever. But telangana is busy fighting a struggle. It is it's revolution. It is adamant on a statehood. It is celebrating because it thinks it has proved itself to india. After SKC's disposal it is going to get a rude reality check that things do not work fairly. And that it when it is going to burst. As part of it's solution. Or desperation.

With every breakdown of law and order, the congress will have to give in a bit. Let telangana cool off.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 31 Jul 2010 01:11

Satya_anveshi wrote:There is a need to do a Ramalinga Raju on YSJReddy to set the Rayalaseema political goons in place and bring their kind to the mainstream or even to be taken seriously while talking.

You mean Sonia&Co will do Ramalinga Raju onto themselves? Sonia&Co got their % cut from YSR&Co so corruption money will never come out.

Satya_anveshi wrote: Further, it is one thing Rayalaseema goons showing their manhood to their *own* people by killing them in election politics but if it gets extended outside, it becomes a different game. They will burn their hands badly if they think they have monopoly on that kind of thing.

Just want to give a rhetorical reply. Generally they are known to kill enemies not their own. They showed their mettle in other places, it is KCR&co that still need to show their mettle other than burning movie wallposters/cutouts

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 31 Jul 2010 01:15

suryag garu,

DS losing is no big deal and I expected. To be honest I see ZERO leaders ( even bad leaders ) in INC-Telangana. KCR's son-in-law is good leadership material. Kadiam Srihari seems a promising leader from TDP in terms of leadership in future Telanagana. Though TDP lost there are certainly good ones who can catchup. There may be others and I haven't yet watched that much.

Satya_anveshi wrote:There is a need to do a Ramalinga Raju on YSJReddy to set the Rayalaseema political goons in place and bring their kind to the mainstream or even to be taken seriously while talking.

I wish you are right. The way the mafia was run in our state is that everyone is hand in glove so that no one will touch each other inspite of the bravado. YSRJ and entire congress political apparatus is same. Doesn't matter the regions.

This is where violence transcents into commoners space when mafiadom is mixed with peoples' issues and sentiments.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 31 Jul 2010 02:44

Since Dec 9, everything went downhill for Congress. Until then, with mediocre CBN at the helm of the opposition, they could surely bet another landslide victory in 2014 elections. Then for unkown reasons, under the pretext of a shameful fast, in one midnight announcement, they plunged the region into chaos, destroyed everything they had built in the last 6 years and dug their own grave. Why? All this to curtail YSJR?. Nobody knows. If Rahul Gandhi is denied prime ministership because of loss of AP, that would be the utilmate poetic justice for Telugu people for the havoc that Gandhis had unleashed on them.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 31 Jul 2010 03:52

Anyway Telangana forming is after the report that comes in Jan 2011. That is about five to six months away. Let us see if INC has any smart ace to come out of the mess. This is a shot-in-the-arm for Jagan. He will take a maximum of 25 MLAs out of INC that will for sure bring the government to minority.

I can give INC an advice if they want to revive. Make KCR as CM with some Kapu leader from Delta region as Dy.CM until Telangana is formed and then they will have options to rebuild.