Telangana Monitor

[Yagnasri]

Plan to close the thread after the results are discussed.
Thanks for all the participation.

ramana

But sir there is going to me more drama on Telangana demand after elections. This drama will have serious effect on AP loksaha results and who rule India after 2014, that is if the Italian gang lasts that long.

[member_22286]

so, judging by personal anecdotes, situation in Hyd seems "in control". then what explains the Sufi Center and visit of Tahir with one lakh attending? there is something that we are missing.

What's wrong with them attending s sufi center they attending a sufi center is similar to a bunch of Hindus attending some Satya Sai Baba Conference I don't see anything wrong with that.Problems come to the fore when they are Harassing Hindus or doing vandalism which they are not able to do thanx TDP&Congress.After NTR set the tone for dealing with MIM not even YSR meddled with the particular tone.He used the stick to keep Owaisi's in line.

Devesh garu the MIM is very much under control by the coastal,Rayalseema and Telangana BC elements and it is also under severe observation by the Central and state espionage agencies

The only time when the forces in the state wanted to unleash the MIM was on the north Indian marwari/bania trading communities properties if they did not stop financing KCR and his Sakula Janula Sammey and they promptly stopped the money supply after the threat.

[devesh]

nothing wrong with attending the Sufi Center. no, I'm actually talking about the sources who want to establish this sufi center. where the financing is coming from. the Sufi Center is not even indirectly linked to Indian sources. it is directly being funded by gulf-based Islamic theological seminaries. and always remember the dictum: the sufi comes and then 50 years later, the Ghazi. the Sufi is used as a soft Jihadi to soften the Kafir with the "good" face, before unleashing the true intent behind.

and the visit of Tahir and lakhs visiting him is in the same line. the faithful are being gathered for public display of strength. you think there is no psychological effect of a lakh muslims gathering in one place, and chanting Allah-oh-Akbar. this is a definite display of strength and the non-Muslim population in the surrounding area is not immune to the effect.

[member_22286]

nothing wrong with attending the Sufi Center. no, I'm actually talking about the sources who want to establish this sufi center. where the financing is coming from. the Sufi Center is not even indirectly linked to Indian sources. it is directly being funded by gulf-based Islamic theological seminaries. and always remember the dictum: the sufi comes and then 50 years later, the Ghazi. the Sufi is used as a soft Jihadi to soften the Kafir with the "good" face, before unleashing the true intent behind.

and the visit of Tahir and lakhs visiting him is in the same line. the faithful are being gathered for public display of strength. you think there is no psychological effect of a lakh muslims gathering in one place, and chanting Allah-oh-Akbar. this is a definite display of strength and the non-Muslim population in the surrounding area is not immune to the effect.

Muslims of Hyderabad were never short of finances the Arabs,Turks and Iranians are there to source money add to that there are many rich Hyd families who can source money.The Tahir center will cause a turf war among the various Muslim factions.

Psychological effect Meh..Who are the most scariest and most deadly entity in AP its the Hindus collectively from all the three regions.In AP the muslims were never pampered and it will be the same in future.Devesh garu AP people are not as impotent as you think on the contrary they take decisions in a more strategic minded manner when compared to rest of India.Both TDP and AP Congress have already perfected the methods to counter Islamic extremism which is simply put"Speak all PC secular in public but deliver the punches at the vitals dicreetly,the RSS ,BJP or other rightist organizations are yet to understand this phenomena"

[devesh]

I hope you are right. I'll be glad if Hyd doesn't join in with the happenings in Kerala. this is my only hope. the Islamists in this area are surrounded on all sides by elements which can, and have in the past, brought hell to them when they overstepped. but my worry is mainly with the happenings in the rest of the country, and somehow this emboldening the local Islamists. if it doesn't happen, then one less worry for India.

[member_22286]

I hope you are right. I'll be glad if Hyd doesn't join in with the happenings in Kerala. this is my only hope. the Islamists in this area are surrounded on all sides by elements which can, and have in the past, brought hell to them when they overstepped. but my worry is mainly with the happenings in the rest of the country, and somehow this emboldening the local Islamists. if it doesn't happen, then one less worry for India.

I suggest you to read more about operation Polo if you want to know how Islamist were hacked in Hyderabad

[devesh]

I have never read any book dedicated to it per se, but have read enough accounts and "short recountings" from various sources, including some which have been passed down in family narratives. but the period immediately preceding Op polo, I have read enough about. and hope that it never repeats.

[member_22286]

Jagan might be arrested by CBI in the next three days thnx to winning the Kovur by-poll

[Supratik]

I suggest you to read more about operation Polo if you want to know how Islamist were hacked in Hyderabad

Is there any truth to Omar Khalidi's claims of lakhs killed in retaliation?

[Muppalla]

Any numbers?
(1) My first reading is TDP has recovered in Telangana though it lost.
(2) It is going to be TDP Vs Jagan in non-T areas and that seems to be the future.
(3) Congress is third in most of AP and they can fish extremely few here and there

TRS will have trouble if it tires to go after Mullah pampering in T and it needs to revisit its strategy of who should be its partner. BJP was able to snatch a seat from TRS though it was by 1000 votes only.

Jagan Rajya is a possibility if TDP screws up.

[harish_ch]

BJP was able to snatch a seat from TRS though it was by 1000 votes only.

Also this seat coming under KCR's parliamentary constituency makes things difficult for TRS to defend the loss. Looks like Kishen Reddy's padayathra in telangana has captured the attention of people.

[Muppalla]

BJP was able to snatch a seat from TRS though it was by 1000 votes only.

Also this seat coming under KCR's parliamentary constituency makes things difficult for TRS to defend the loss. Looks like Kishen Reddy's padayathra in telangana has captured the attention of people.

BJP is splitting the T vote. KCR has a genuine predicament to go with BJP in areas where there is strong Muslim population. This pop will never vote to BJP or anyone who aligned with them. He will be in trouble to build a winning combination if he goes with BJP. His problem is if he goes with BJP, the Muslims will vote enmasse to INC and INC can get SC and ST votes in T region. TDP is also on a growth path with BC votes. The dividends of pure T-sentiment is diminishing and it will go down in the coming future.

[devesh]

BJP's victory in Mahbubnagar is a miracle of sorts. I had predicted that the first real openings for BJP in AP will come in Telangana. that prediction has come true. and Mahbubnagar is an interesting setting. it sits on the edge of Telangana and Rayalaseema. we might be thinking that Seema is in the Jagan gang's hold, but the "Hindu" has always surprised us with his/her political activism. I suspect that Mahbubnagar will be a good base for BJP to make way into Kurnool. time will tell, I guess.

I don't think TSR/INC/TDP/Jagan truly understand the significance of this victory for BJP. BJP won, most likely, by getting a good chunk of BC/SC/ST votes. the FC's by themselves don't have the numbers to propel BJP to victory. and if what I suspect is true, based on my personal experiences, the Brahmins would have gone to INC.

it is a sign that the Telangana movement, YSR's death, and Jagan's rise are all combining to make TRS/INC/TDP less effective. each one of these political fronts is being bled and each one has partially relinquished the claim to supremacy in AP. for TSR, it was confined to Telangana, but even here, the fact that BJP can pull off a victory, and TDP is not really dead, means that TRS can't claim supremacy, which it must, if it wants to continue for a sustained period of time. the INC and TDP are also quickly loosing the claim of superiority because neither of them can be on all sides of divisions that they've created. Jagan is still a minor fish, and is being forced to go all guns blazing when he's stills so fresh. it can be a good strategy, but AP politics is entering a competitive phase where if he spends all his initial fresh energy in putting out fires with INC and draining TDP, there won't be much left within a short period of time.

TDP, I'm afraid, will never recover to its former glory. it had a unique opportunity for 10 continuous years, to shape the AP politics for the entire next generation. something like what the Left did in Bengal. NTR capitalized on the opportunity by breaking the hold of middlemen in the administrative structure. But Naidu lost the plot. his TDP showed a crucial shortcoming in "neglecting" the Telangana faction in TDP. Naidu is partly to blame for the T-mess. and YSR solidified this mistake of TDP and unleashed the mess on the state. rest is history. both TDP and INC will be forced to give up their respective claims of supremacy in AP.

AP is headed the Maharashtra/UP way. neither INC nor TDP will be able to claim supremacy anytime in the near future again.

[devesh]

also, this has established a template for BJP. this time they only contested one seat, and won it. time is running out for TRS. in 2014, they will be obliterated if they choose to go alone. BJP will bleed them. the result will be that TDP might be temporarily given power in a huge number of seats. but it will be a temporary victory. the real political shaping will start showing in 2019, by which time TRS will be gone if T doesn't become reality and BJP will have had the time to start making its presence felt.

so, expect TDP to post what will be felt like a miraculous "reemergence", but in reality is only a temporary hiatus until other forces can work their way into the Andhra system.

[vijayk]

The real test for TDP will come when the the next bye-elections to 17 seats are held. They are all in Andhra except one seat. If TDP can wrest 4-5 seats from that and and push CON party to third position, they can be taken seriously for 2014. Otherwise, Jagan the crook will be on his way.

[vishvak]

Is there any truth to Omar Khalidi's claims of lakhs killed in retaliation?

Not sure if its correct, still if there is a pointer.
The Letters They Rejected! -1

His was perhaps the only paper in the country that did not write an editorial the day after suburban trains in Mumbai were bombed killing more than 200 people in 2006. On the other hand his paper’s first lead on the next day was a report that ascribed the bombings to Hindu organisations! His paper excerpted the book of a Pakistani author, which claims 250,000 Muslims were killed during the liberation of Hyderabad!! [An update: It came to light later that it was a third rate Ph.D thesis submitted to a third rate Pakistani University.] The least the paper could do was to write an editorial comment questioning the veracity of the claim, but it did not. What would you expect from an editor who eulogised the founder of PLO - the mother of all terrorism as ‘the hero of our time’ on the cover of Sunday, awhile after the PLO reddened the history of the Olympics by slitting the throats of thirteen Israeli athletes!!!

[ShyamSP]

Mahabubnagar:
==========
Real win for BJP. However, BJP win is due to polarization than any T-poru yatras. TRS was in 4th place and when Muslim areas counting started it catapulted to 1st place. This shows Muslims enbloc voted for TRS Muslim candiate causing polarization pushing the opposite votes to BJP. Congress putting BC candidate split TDP vote.

TRS also won something there. It took M vote out of KHAM. For Congress K and M left and left with H as A are less there. This is good negotiating point for TRS if it wants to deal with Congress in any elections deal in 2014.

Kovvur:
=====
It is Nallapareddy show. They always get 45-65% there so this time is no surprise given voter mobilization for high % polling and heavy money influence from YSRC.

TDP despite strong candiate lost like 25% but that is decent given Nallapareddy was ex-TDP and he might have taken some TDP votes as expected. But Congress is main loser as expected it lost like 65% of 2009 voteshare. PRP numbers might have been relief as loss came down to 45% *

* These calculations are from fluid numbers that are given in some websites and not from EC official figures.

Other constituencies:
=============
They are timewaste for analysis and went on expected lines.

[KLNMurthy]

I suggest you to read more about operation Polo if you want to know how Islamist were hacked in Hyderabad

Is there any truth to Omar Khalidi's claims of lakhs killed in retaliation?

Late omar khalidi was a hyderabadi paki and hence fundamentally dishonest.

There was a good deal of unsurprising retaliation in the karnataka and maharashtra areas however. Refer Narendra Luther's accounts for a more honest and balanced picture.

[devesh]

ShyamSP garu,
thx for the tidbits. some important data points in there.

[Yagnasri]

Spoken with relations live in Kovur. Jagan spent money like anything. Silver DeepaSemme - (I do nto know what it is called in English) are given to each women and even Mukkupudaka - In Gold were given in some cases. It is estimated the spending is to the tune of Rs 5000/- per vote. Congress totally lost its plot in KOvur. Needless to say two ministers are there in Nellore for INC at present it is quite bad for Congress. Reddy power structure has done well for Jagan at Kovur elections. If it gives good results in 2014 is not certain. But Jagan will now have to momemtum and INC has none.

BYE BYE 2014 - 33 mp SEATS - HOPE Jagan will not win MP seats.

[ramana]

Since the next 17 assy seats are due to resignations by YSR Congress and hence have nothing to do with Telangana I am inclined to close the thread for now. We can reopen if something changes. The Assy elections thread in GDF is there to discuss the polticial developments.

Thanks to everyone for participating in this thread and others for keeping off!

ramana

PSS: Suggest using ArmenT' s software to download this thread to your archives for later use.

[ramana]

I moved all the posts from the Stated News and Discussion Thread so we have an archive of the entire Telangana discussion and am locking it.

ramana