BJP's victory in Mahbubnagar is a miracle of sorts. I had predicted that the first real openings for BJP in AP will come in Telangana. that prediction has come true. and Mahbubnagar is an interesting setting. it sits on the edge of Telangana and Rayalaseema. we might be thinking that Seema is in the Jagan gang's hold, but the "Hindu" has always surprised us with his/her political activism. I suspect that Mahbubnagar will be a good base for BJP to make way into Kurnool. time will tell, I guess.
I don't think TSR/INC/TDP/Jagan truly understand the significance of this victory for BJP. BJP won, most likely, by getting a good chunk of BC/SC/ST votes. the FC's by themselves don't have the numbers to propel BJP to victory. and if what I suspect is true, based on my personal experiences, the Brahmins would have gone to INC.
it is a sign that the Telangana movement, YSR's death, and Jagan's rise are all combining to make TRS/INC/TDP less effective. each one of these political fronts is being bled and each one has partially relinquished the claim to supremacy in AP. for TSR, it was confined to Telangana, but even here, the fact that BJP can pull off a victory, and TDP is not really dead, means that TRS can't claim supremacy, which it must, if it wants to continue for a sustained period of time. the INC and TDP are also quickly loosing the claim of superiority because neither of them can be on all sides of divisions that they've created. Jagan is still a minor fish, and is being forced to go all guns blazing when he's stills so fresh. it can be a good strategy, but AP politics is entering a competitive phase where if he spends all his initial fresh energy in putting out fires with INC and draining TDP, there won't be much left within a short period of time.
TDP, I'm afraid, will never recover to its former glory. it had a unique opportunity for 10 continuous years, to shape the AP politics for the entire next generation. something like what the Left did in Bengal. NTR capitalized on the opportunity by breaking the hold of middlemen in the administrative structure. But Naidu lost the plot. his TDP showed a crucial shortcoming in "neglecting" the Telangana faction in TDP. Naidu is partly to blame for the T-mess. and YSR solidified this mistake of TDP and unleashed the mess on the state. rest is history. both TDP and INC will be forced to give up their respective claims of supremacy in AP.
AP is headed the Maharashtra/UP way. neither INC nor TDP will be able to claim supremacy anytime in the near future again.