West Asia News and Discussions

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 25 Jun 2010 10:39

Bolton to Ban: Back off!

http://turtlebay.foreignpolicy.com/post ... n_back_off

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 25 Jun 2010 23:31

Chinmayanand wrote:Report: IAF helicopters unload equipment 'meant for attacking a Muslim state' at Saudi airport

This is selectively leaked out by Iran on purpose. Basically the Israeli's had a forward operating base in certain GCC countries secretly. But Israeli's messed that up - many reasons but no one can't point to one.

The reading in certain GCC nations on Iran is this:

US is just trying to show Iran that it has power etc by deploying many ships.
They also think that israel will not run a joint military strike with the US - as this won't help the US's situation economically back at home and it will naturally get bad PR in the US - i.e. not doing itself any favours.

Israel can handle Iran on its own and no GCC country or Israeli neighbours will retaliate when it solves its problems with Iran.

More evidence to support this theory - Israel launched Ofeq 9.

After the Gaza flotilla issue, Tehran and Damascus could now breathe easy, rid of their fear of an Israeli air strike coming from the direction of Turkey. So, what does tehran decide to do? It tries to convince others who initially offered their airspace to Israel for attack against Tehran, to change their decision. Case in example is all this drama of israel practising with KSA for air corridor and news lines like above. Apparently Tehran is convinced that Obama will not let Israel use iraqi territory too.

The leak had one purpose, to force KSA to speak out. KSA princes said Israeli jets will not be permitted over their territory.

The whole point of Ofeq 9 is to show that Israeli missiles will hit any part of Iran and it doesn't need an air corridor of any sort. I think Israel will form links with PKK.

DNW says Greece has stepped into Turkey's shoes for Israel. Greece will now provide support etc as greek PM is close with several high level people in Israel. Greece to Israel distance is same as Israeli distance to Iran. Greece has the S-300 and has allowed Israeli fighter jets to practice against them. Of course Israel will offer the Greek info on the Turks, will upgrade/enhance knowledge/tech of the Greek military. So this has troubled Erdogan who has now toned down things a little.

US is making desperate attempts to wane Syria away from Tehran. To that end, John Kerry is making shuttle trips to Damascus and activity is fearce in the last few months. George Mitchell is DNW says that Netanyahu has agreed to withdraw from Golan, but will retain a small portion of land. DNW says the IDF has agreed to withdrawing to that portion provided Syria does the same as Egypt - which is travel to Jerusalem for full peace treaty. Of course this means Syria must also get rid of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah HQs in Damascus.

This israeli proposal will be presented to Obama on July 6th. Obama was expecting a full withdrawal, but the new proposal will take things to the last mountain range, which will make it hard if not impossible for Syrian tanks to enter israel, but the plan allows the IDF easy access to retake the golan if needed. The plan says after x amount of years, it will withdraw fully to the 1967 borders. All this is going to be tough for Netanyahu politically.

Netanyahu has made it clear he finds the Syrian track more promising than the Palestinian one and is willing to give up more of the Golan than any of the other PM's. This plan allows israel to keep the water resources too.

This plan is seen as an updated version of the Hof plan.

Let this be released in a week and hopefully we will get a better picture of the withdrawal plan.

-----------------
King Abdullah of KSA will be meeting with Obama on 29th June.
----------------
Prince Bandar has a problem relating to the spine - there has been a total black out on this issue in english press - so far only a french newspaper has come out with it. There is speculation that he had colon cancer etc. He was undergoing treatment in Paris and is currently resting in Morocco where his father and clan members have their palace in Agadir.. I had reported earlier that he was not well.

There is a lot of rivalry for post succession of King Abdullah. Prince Bandar is out of the game even though he is the head of the NSC - he doesn't do much any more apparently. As I reported earlier, a prince had offered him to go on exile to another arab country.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 26 Jun 2010 08:36

Turkey: still America’s best ally in the Middle East?

http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/ ... iddle_east

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 26 Jun 2010 08:37

Egypt's Emergency Law strikes again

http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/ ... haled_said

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 26 Jun 2010 08:38

Under the radar rapprochement: Turkey and Iraqi Kurds

http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/ ... raqi_kurds

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 26 Jun 2010 16:02

IOL says the Iranian Pasdaran have created a new structure in a garrison in order to support Afghan Taliban. The garrison which is in the town of Zabul also provides military support to Taliban allies such as Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hezb-e-Islami, as well as Ismail Khan’s Jamaat Islami, which control the town of Herat close to the Iranian border.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 26 Jun 2010 22:55

Ottomania

http://www.tnr.com/article/world/75609/ottomania

Anyone nice enough to post the whole article before the national bird strikes?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 27 Jun 2010 05:17

Mansouri, Indian envoy explore investment climate in UAE and India

Jun 26, 2010 - 06:46 -
WAM Dubai, 26th June 2010 (WAM) -- Minister of Economy Sultan Al Mansouri discussed today with Lokesh Mysore Kapanaiah, India's new ambassador to the UAE, investment incentives the UAE and India offer for attracting foreign capital.

Al Mansouri called on Indian companies to seize investment opportunities the UAE offers in infrastructure and clean energy (Nuclear?) and invited both Emirati and Indian businessmen to exchange visits to closely explore means of seizing these opportunities. There are more than 105 Indian companies investing in the UAE in addition to other hundreds of firms operating in the free zones.

The minister lauded the Indian community as a major contributor to the comprehensive development in the UAE, forming an important part of various vital segments in the UAE.

''The UAE wise leadership is always keen to secure a safe, attractive environment to the Indian community, allowing it to realise ambitions and successes,''he added.

Sheikh Mohammed interview with CNN on Dubai debt woes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYjQz0dxFog

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 27 Jun 2010 16:43

First 'official' gurdwara in Dubai

Coming up at a cost of $20 million, the Guru Nanak Darbar at Jebel Ali, Dubai, will be the first official Sikh gurdwara in the entire Gulf, catering to religious needs of a 50,000-strong Sikh community. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Makhtoum, vice-president and prime minister of UAE and ruler of Dubai, who granted permission for building the gurdwara, has given 25,400 sq ft land free.

Surender Singh Kandhari, businessman and Captain of Emirates Golf Club in Dubai, had approached authorities with his dream project and though it took him some time to convince them about the concepts of sangat and langar, while even translating excerpts from the Guru Grant Sahib, it was approved.

"Sikhs don’t worship idols like in Islam and once authorities were convinced that setting up a gurdwara was not anti-Islamic, things quickly started falling in place. My dream is to make Guru Nanak Durbar the best, second only to the Golden Temple in Amritsar," adds Kandhari.

With a 1,25,000 sq ft built-up area, the shrine has three basements, a ground floor and terrace floor. The langar hall can serve more than 600 people at a time. There is a 54-m water body, inspired by the sarovar at the Golden Temple, and a cascade. The main prayer hall, on the top with Palki Sahib, has a 7.2 m-high ceiling and an 18-m diametre dome roof. The function hall can accommodate up to 900 people. "We are seeking funds from Sikhs all over the world," says Kandhari.

Dubai-based architect firm Holford Associates has designed the gurdwara and it is supported by Richard Adams from UK, who was involved with the Shri Guru Singh Sabha Gurdwara on Havelock Road in Southall, London.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 Jun 2010 16:23

Hamas leader in Dubai tagged as hostage for Gilead Shalit - new US intel theory

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 28, 2010, 10:10 AM (GMT+02:00)

Dubai hostage plan aborted
Some US intelligence circles are now suggesting that the high-ranking Hamas official Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh who died by an unknown hand in Dubai last January was not targeted for death but for capture as a live hostage against the release of Gilead Shalit, the Israeli soldier whom Hamas kidnapped four years ago in a cross-border raid from Gaza and holds without contact with the outside world.
Sunday, June 27, his parents Noam and Aviva Shalit launched a 12-day march to Jerusalem, gathering in many of thousands of supporters to lobby the government for his freedom
World figures, including the French and Italian governments, have demanded Gilead Shalit's immediate release - or at least Red Cross access to Hamas's prisoner.
DEBKAfile cites US intelligence sources as speculating that Mahboub was to have been one of half a dozen high-value Hamas operatives Israel planned to grab in January in different parts of the Middle East as bargaining chips for the Israeli soldier.
As the man in charge of Iran's weapons supplies to Hamas, Mahboub was judged a key lever for obtaining the Israeli soldier's freedom.
Those US sources believe the plan to snatch him from a Dubai hotel went smoothly enough up until the last step. But then, the drugs administered to knock him out appeared to have killed him on the spot. He was meant to be doped enough to let himself be bundled out of the hotel on his two feet in the middle of the team of abductors without drawing attention. According to this theory, the team was to have driven him to Dubai port and put him aboard a waiting yacht, which was to sail off and rendezvous with an Israeli naval missile boat in the Red Sea.
After delivering him, the same team was to have proceeded to its next target.
But whether they gave Mahboub an overdose or whether his health was frailer than believed, he did not survive. The abduction team leader, lacking instructions for this exigency, decided to abort the
mission and leave the dead man in place. He told the would-be abductors to get out of Dubai fast and scatter. The rest of the high-risk, ambitious plan was scrapped.
Had it succeeded, say the US sources, it would have been Israel's biggest abduction operation ever, attesting to the extremely high importance Israel attaches to recovering its soldier from captivity.
The Israel Mossad's hand in the death of Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh was widely alleged but never proved. Several governments, Britain, Ireland, Australia among them, expelled the security officials at Israeli embassies from their capitals to protest the use of forged passports.
The negotiations to swap almost a thousand jailed Palestinians for Gilead Shalit stalemated six months ago when the German mediator pulled out.

Sounds like a decent enough plan. The chemical they injected caused cardiac arrest.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 28 Jun 2010 16:52

Turkey bars Israel military flight after Gaza raid

Turkey has barred an Israeli military flight from Turkish airspace, in apparent retaliation for Israel's raid on an aid convoy bound for Gaza.

Turkey's prime minister confirmed that a "ban" had been implemented following the 31 May raid, in which nine Turkish citizens on the flotilla were killed.

Military flight bans are now being considered on a case-by-case basis, Turkish officials said.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 28 Jun 2010 19:55

shyamd wrote:
Sounds like a decent enough plan. The chemical they injected caused cardiac arrest.

Yes...that explains why they needed to send that many people in to just kill one guy...

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 28 Jun 2010 21:00

shyamd wrote:First 'official' gurdwara in Dubai
Coming up at a cost of $20 million, the Guru Nanak Darbar at Jebel Ali, Dubai, will be the first official Sikh gurdwara in the entire Gulf, catering to religious needs of a 50,000-strong Sikh community. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Makhtoum, vice-president and prime minister of UAE and ruler of Dubai, who granted permission for building the gurdwara, has given 25,400 sq ft land free.

Surender Singh Kandhari, businessman and Captain of Emirates Golf Club in Dubai, had approached authorities with his dream project and though it took him some time to convince them about the concepts of sangat and langar, while even translating excerpts from the Guru Grant Sahib, it was approved.

"Sikhs don’t worship idols like in Islam and once authorities were convinced that setting up a gurdwara was not anti-Islamic, things quickly started falling in place. My dream is to make Guru Nanak Durbar the best, second only to the Golden Temple in Amritsar," adds Kandhari.

With a 1,25,000 sq ft built-up area, the shrine has three basements, a ground floor and terrace floor. The langar hall can serve more than 600 people at a time. There is a 54-m water body, inspired by the sarovar at the Golden Temple, and a cascade. The main prayer hall, on the top with Palki Sahib, has a 7.2 m-high ceiling and an 18-m diametre dome roof. The function hall can accommodate up to 900 people. "We are seeking funds from Sikhs all over the world," says Kandhari.

Dubai-based architect firm Holford Associates has designed the gurdwara and it is supported by Richard Adams from UK, who was involved with the Shri Guru Singh Sabha Gurdwara on Havelock Road in Southall, London.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 Jun 2010 23:21

^^ Dubai Isn't exactly the beacon of openness and tolerance for other religions. Although they do have a few churches. Oman is the most open for tolerance of all sects of Islam and all religions.

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Obama has sent a message to KSA regarding 29th June meet with King A on KSA air force buying US jets (most likely the F-15 Eagle).

--------------------
Maktoum bin Mohammed receives Senior Chinese Banker

Jun 28, 2010 - 03:12 -
WAM Dubai, Jun 28th, 2010 (WAM)--His Highness Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Deputy Ruler of Dubai received at his court in Zaabel today morning Shuqing Guo chief executive of the second largest Chinese Construction Bank based in Beijing.

Sheikh Maktoum exchanged views with the visiting Chinese guest on the overall economic and financial conditions, as well as regional and international efforts to restore confidence in the financial markets and banking sector, which have begun to recover and restore the world's economy recovery.

The Chinese banker praised spectacular urban progress being witnessed by the UAE in general and Dubai in particular, compared to what he saw during his previous visit to the UAE three years ago, stressing the China's confidence at the level of the UAE economy and banking sector.

Guo expressed interest of his bank in the UAE market's booming, indicating that the bank will begin operational procedures for opening of a regional branch at the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), particularly with existence of large number of Chinese companies operating in the UAE and are looking forward to providing services to China Construction Bank in the region as a whole.

For his part, Sheikh Maktoum welcomed the Chinese Banker and the delegation accompanying him, pointing out that the visit will usher in a new era of relations between the banking sectors in both countries.

He commended the location of China in the global economic map, stressing that the UAE in general and Dubai in particular are looking forward to furthering economic and financial cooperation with China in view of the fact that the People's Republic of China is the second largest trading partner of the UAE.

The meeting was attended by Mohammed Ibrahim Al Shaibani, director of the Office of His Highness the Ruler of Dubai, Ahmed Humaid Al Tayer, Governor of the DIFC and Chinese Consul General in Dubai Gao Yuchen.

These moves are part of the UAE or Dubai's next move to embrace the next big leaders. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid calls it "the new world", i.e. India and China. Expect a huge improvement in relations between GCC and India, especially wrt UAE.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 29 Jun 2010 01:56

shyamd wrote:
These moves are part of the UAE or Dubai's next move to embrace the next big leaders. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid calls it "the new world", i.e. India and China. Expect a huge improvement in relations between GCC and India, especially wrt UAE.

Who is Bin Amir in Oman. He used to be commerce minister.

Also how big is the business group - ETA Star . etaascon.com

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 29 Jun 2010 08:11

Israel envoy: "Tectonic rift"

http://www.politico.com/blogs/lauraroze ... _rift.html

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 29 Jun 2010 08:23

The collapse of Israel’s 'Periphery Doctrine'

http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/ ... y_doctrine

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 29 Jun 2010 08:26

How Saudi Arabia and the United States have grown apart.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... _your_hand

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 29 Jun 2010 08:26

Abdullah's No Reformer

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... o_reformer

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 29 Jun 2010 09:18

Rony wrote:"Sikhs don’t worship idols like in Islam and once authorities were convinced that setting up a gurdwara was not anti-Islamic, things quickly started falling in place.

Seems to be a fig-leaf of an excuse by the Govt. of Dubai. From what I know, Sikhs do show their reverence to the holy book Guru Grunth Sahib. Infact in Golden temple I have seen that book kept in great reverence. How different is this from idol worshipping?

. Any ways good for the Sikhs.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 29 Jun 2010 09:36

^^

Those words are from the sikh dude, not from the dubai govt.

Surender Singh Kandhari, businessman and Captain of Emirates Golf Club in Dubai, had approached authorities with his dream project and though it took him some time to convince them about the concepts of sangat and langar, while even translating excerpts from the Guru Grant Sahib, it was approved.Sikhs don’t worship idols like in Islam and once authorities were convinced that setting up a gurdwara was not anti-Islamic, things quickly started falling in place. My dream is to make Guru Nanak Durbar the best, second only to the Golden Temple in Amritsar," adds Kandhari.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 29 Jun 2010 10:03

Rony wrote:^^

Those words are from the sikh dude, not from the dubai govt.

This is just self-censorship, dhimmitude and servile attitude. Sikh community should have demanded it in the name of humanity and in the name of all those lofty principles that these ME kingdoms are supposed to uphold as believers in 'religion of peace' and universal brotherhood that their book supposedly teaches them. But they probably know they are dealing with barbaric animals that have no humanity let alone moderate beliefs so they play the music that would please them...

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 29 Jun 2010 10:34

abhishek_sharma wrote:The collapse of Israel’s 'Periphery Doctrine'

http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/ ... y_doctrine

Thanks for posting this...one of the cleverest and most sensible articles I have ever read. His reading of history is so important and relevant.

There is a lesson in this for India too....dont be under similar illusion of 'friendship' with some Islamic states, and mollycoddling the likes of KSA's Abdullah or Irans nut-job, in the hope of them one day helping us against TSP...or at least stay away...they will not. It will be like a professional hit man telling you 'sorry gotta shoot you, no personal offense meant'

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 29 Jun 2010 18:11

Reliable sources saying DIFC is going to be bought out by Abu Dhabi. Talks are in advanced stage. $2.59 billion. They may merge into one stock exchange called Emirates Financial Markets or something like that. Nothing in english media of yet.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 29 Jun 2010 18:32

Dubai, Sharjah, and Abu Dhabi have a sizeable Indian population (Gujaratis mostly) doing very very well in the trade and commerce.
I happened to visit just before Diwali, and the whole town had neon light shaped as diwali lamps on the streetlight poles, 'Happy diwali' written in almost every store I went to, specially old dubai.
The gurudwara thing is one of the chankyan moves and possibly one of the factors that motivated the UAE guys is that the Indian PM is a sikh - just the kind of subtle messaging that states indulge in.

Isn't UAE supposed to be more moderate amongst the arab states? I saw alcohol and pork being sold freely in the markets (But both had labels prominently declaring "Not for Muslims").

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 30 Jun 2010 02:17

Jordan insists on right to nuclear power
‘Energy-poor Jordan, which is in talks with the United States to sign a nuclear cooperation deal, said Monday it does not want to give up its right to peaceful atomic power under international treaties. "We are now in continuous negotiations with the United States, and the latest round was in Washington last week," Khaled Tukan, head of Jordan's Atomic Energy Commission, told AFP. "But I think we still don't have common ground. They started to understand our viewpoint, but still (there is) no common ground." Tukan said the Americans want their ally Jordan to sign a nuclear agreement similar to a deal they reached with the United Arab Emirates, which "has relinquished its rights under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)." "The United Arab Emirates has relinquished all its NPT rights to sensitive nuclear technology indefinitely," he said, adding: "Why should we give up our rights?" Tukan said Article Four of the NPT stipulates that "all countries have the right to full utilisation of peaceful nuclear energy, research and development." "We are sticking and adhering to the NPT, and (we want) full rights and privileges under the NPT," he said

http://www.greenpeace.org/international ... blog/12845

Karna_A · Post by **Karna_A** » 30 Jun 2010 02:37

Suppiah wrote:
abhishek_sharma wrote:The collapse of Israel’s 'Periphery Doctrine'

http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/ ... y_doctrine
Thanks for posting this...one of the cleverest and most sensible articles I have ever read. His reading of history is so important and relevant.

There is a lesson in this for India too....dont be under similar illusion of 'friendship' with some Islamic states, and mollycoddling the likes of KSA's Abdullah or Irans nut-job, in the hope of them one day helping us against TSP...or at least stay away...they will not. It will be like a professional hit man telling you 'sorry gotta shoot you, no personal offense meant'

Friendship with Islamic states is vital for 15 more years. After that there is no need. Islamic states have helped India over TSP, biggest example was Saddam. The reason is simple. The TSP hatred of India has nothing to do with islam otherwise they would be hating Chinks even more as no one in their right mind would believe that Islam in India is worse off than in China. India TSP nook war would be disastrous for Islam as Muslims would die on both sides of border and Indics on just one side resulting in net Indic gain.The GCC has 15 more years and by 2025 the decline of GCC will start when oil becomes a four letter word and increasingly all cars become electric. That would take away the present power of KSA and other GCC countries and would be increasingly dependent on Indian technology, food and labor to survive.
By 2045 the oil based economy will be on last legs and KSA would once again assume its natural nomadic position in the world. Each country like UK/US/KSA have their best 100 years after which cycle comes back to India with its 1000 years of natural dominance.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 30 Jun 2010 06:13

^^ I too agree that we should maintain semblance of friendship and cooperation, to keep them as much as possible on our side. It is the inner thought I was talking about - just be clear all the way and be under no illusion even as we put on a act. Sometimes acts can become too good to become delusions..

I also agree that we are on the verge of witnessing end of oil era in our lifetimes, perhaps even in a decade or so. That is probably why US/West is acting so tough against its own oil giants. They would never have done this in an era when oil co's were practically extension counters of their foreign ministries / spy agencies.

They know something we don't- that some big breakthrough or series of smaller triumphs will kill oil. Even Bush referred to it in one speech..that would be the end of Islamic domination in Asia, for what it has been worth. There is a threat in that too - they will give up whatever pretence of moderation they display and fall back on the only asset they have - Islam.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 30 Jun 2010 07:07

Suppiah wrote:
I also agree that we are on the verge of witnessing end of oil era in our lifetimes, perhaps even in a decade or so. That is probably why US/West is acting so tough against its own oil giants. They would never have done this in an era when oil co's were practically extension counters of their foreign ministries / spy agencies.

They know something we don't- that some big breakthrough or series of smaller triumphs will kill oil.

Low cost nuclear energy(underground) with low radiation will be the next thing.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 30 Jun 2010 09:14

Israeli Rules Out Palestinian State by 2012

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/30/world ... deast.html

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 30 Jun 2010 09:25

Obama, Saudi King Discuss Two - State Mideast Solution

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2010/06/ ... deast.html

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 30 Jun 2010 09:41

King Abdullah wants to wipe Israel and Iran off the map

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/201 ... ff_the_map

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 30 Jun 2010 17:09

Acharya wrote: Who is Bin Amir in Oman. He used to be commerce minister.

Also how big is the business group - ETA Star . etaascon.com

ETA is owned by Al Ghurair group. A well connected clan/family. Well entrenched family - minister's, big businessmen etc.

Don't know about Bin Amir, a full name would be good. Current commerce min is HE Maqbool bin Ali bin Sultan. has been so since 90's.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 30 Jun 2010 17:48

abhishek_sharma wrote:King Abdullah wants to wipe Israel and Iran off the map

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/201 ... ff_the_map

Very sincere and definite to way to solve the ME problem, if its true. Def. its going to raise many eyebrows.

I think, this a purposefully leaked one to counter the news of letting Saudi airspace to Israelis for the Iran attack.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 30 Jun 2010 23:17

Red Team
CENTCOM thinks outside the box on Hamas and Hezbollah.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... 9/red_team

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 30 Jun 2010 23:38

The Israel-Turkey fiasco can still be fixed

http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2 ... l_be_fixed

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 30 Jun 2010 23:42

Israeli ambassador: Iran sanctions could inadvertently lead to war

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts ... ead_to_war

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 02 Jul 2010 15:15

Rudradev wrote: Questions:

1. How likely is this scenario, partially analogous to pre WW1 Europe, to materialize?

2.Having materialized, how likely is it to lead to all out war possibly involving nukes (rather than a limited set of proxy conflicts?)

3. What are India's best options in this scenario? What are our biggest concerns and hopes? What are the options and viewpoints of other global powers?

Rudradev ji,

Let me hazard a response to Question 3.

India's options are many, our special ops capability could be potent enough to take out AQAM before they play their role with the Northern Bloc. This would involve making a deal with Iran to undo any deal that it has with the AQAM. In exchange, we could selectively give them a nuclear deal or other high technology.

Iran could also be used as a platform by India to take out Chinese missile silos in KSA and effectively fragment Pureland once and for all. KSA should be made a fang-less snake.

The dynamic of espionage, special ops changes exponentially during wartime. India's objective should be to rearrange the pieces such that Iran and Israel end up on the same camp, regardless of where they started up. China and the yankees/west wouldnt want this for sure.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 02 Jul 2010 21:52

^^ KSA and much of the GCC are fang-less snakes - a view held by many who work within the respective defence communities. The only thing that they have is $$$'s, which they put to good use.

--------------------
DNW report on King Abdullah - Obama meeting 29th June.

Obama told King A to stop highlevel intel contact between KSA and Israeli military and intel officers. King A - said I don't know much about it and had I known you would bring this up, I would have brought Prince Muqrin (GID chief) who handles Israel relations.

King A told Obama that diplomacy/sanctions is useless for Iran. He just told Obama that the sanctions are easy to get around. Obama said you better drop this project, because any strike on iran will have to use american radars etc, and we won't provide that.

2nd major issue that Obama questioned King A on was the nuclear plans of KSA: King A dodged questions. Then Obama asked about KSA-TSP nook relations because US intel discovered that AQ Khan has been visiting Jeddah over 50 times in the past 3 years. He does have some business interests there. Obama said how can I convince Syria and Iran not to pursue a nook program if you are going to enrich uranium too. Obama told him it puts a spanner in the works to get rid of nukes and non proliferation.

(my comment: As I have revealed before that DNW thinks that KSA nook prog is in Khamis Mushayt military city, in the south of the country. It has never been penetrated by US intel. This city is important because the Zaidi rebellion was being managed by KSA command in khamis mushyt. And a Zaidi victory would mean getting control of nook assets there. hence a big danger/risk for Ksa, so KSA had to give up and allow the Iranians to win - brokered peace via Rigi handover).

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DNW reckons Robert gates is going to resign.
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FM of Bahrain was in Tehran for "frank discussions" with senior iranians. Met the NSA of Iran etc.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Jul 2010 23:25

Shyamd, re the KSA and nooks interesting info. Apparently it was joint project of KSA, TSP and PRc with Nelson's eye from US. Now things are changing and the heat is on KSA. There were reports of proximate security cover for the assets in Al Araby.