Afghanistan in Taliban control? No cause for Indian worry.

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Re: Afghanistan in Taliban control? No cause for Indian worry.

Postby Pranav » 09 Feb 2010 06:49

Anujan wrote:A better threat would be to cut off water & withdraw from IWT if any terrorist attacks India.

That is too overt. Deniability is desirable. And it would be best if the Paquis screwed themselves by their own lunacy. They are doing a pretty fine job of that already. Now, how can they be helped along?

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Re: Afghanistan in Taliban control? No cause for Indian worry.

Postby shiv » 09 Feb 2010 07:30

In the few days since I started this thread my own thoughts have been modified by opinions and information on this forum.

First was the reasoning that showed how a Paki directed Taliban control of Afghanistan would be harmful to India.

The second was basically posted in the Paki thread - I imported part of it here. It was the reasoning by Rangudu (and a related article by K Subrahmanyam) that suggested that teh s called "free hand" being given to Pakistan to bring forward a good Taliban to negotiate with in Afganistan was a two edge sword that could threaten to hurt akistan itself.

The reasoning IIRC involved the following points:

    Russia is on board with the US this time
    The so called Quetta Shura is unacceptabe to unkil
    Haqqani's head is wanted on a platter
    Mullah Omar has to be presented de-alqaedized.

If all 4 points are true the scene looks more hopeful as there is less likely to be a formal PakTalib takeover of Afghanistan. Whether all this can happen or not remains to be seen - but it has one important effect on my thoughts and conclusions on this thread - once again suggesting that earlier statements of mine may have been mistaken

I have asked that a punitive war be imposed on Pakistan (by India). The logic behind this was to stress the Pakistani armed forces and leave them less control in Afghanistan, to help Afghanistan spin out of control again and lead to attacks in all sorts of places in the world in addition to India.

However the new nuances that have been presented suggest (once again) that India is to be the anvil (which incidentally absorbs bows) from a US hammer designed to hammer Pakistan. That means that if India makes war with Pakistan, it spoils the US's grand plans to use Paqui forces to keep the Taliban in check while Pak is pressurized to deliver on the four points above. Bandwagoning with the US makes this plan "necessary" it seems and it may (to my extreme irritation) make India have to "swallow" and accept a couple more 26/11s.

We have to imagine and hope that the US holds all the keys and codes to the F 16s and AMRAAMs that Pakistan is getting and that they will not be used against India.

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