Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 05 Mar 2010 01:02

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detay ... ink=143879

Love for the Ottomans and Turkey lives on in Kolkata, India

India has long held a special place in the hearts of Anatolia's people. For this reason, we've decided to visit this country, and in particular, Kolkata's "Caliphate Committee," an organization of particular importance to Turks during the Turkish War of Independence.

The Caliphate Committee was originally established with the intent of helping the Ottomans and the people of Anatolia. Photographs taken in 1920 and 1922 hang on the walls of the Caliphate Committee's office. During those years, members of this committee got together to send financial and spiritual assistance to the Ottomans during the Turkish War of Independence. The goal of this committee was to display the prominence and importance of their ties to the caliphate as well as to help inform and support the extensive Muslim population in India. Women and young girls were also involved to join the campaigns run by the Caliphate Committee, gladly handing over their golden bracelets, earrings and other valuables in support. For Indian Muslims, the existence of the Ottoman state was a matter of pride and honor.

During our visit to this Kolkata center, the members of the Caliphate Committee were convened for a meeting. We asked committee head Javit Ahmet Han why Muslim Indians supported the people of Anatolia during the Turkish War of Independence. He said: "We were answering the efforts of the Ottoman caliphate to remain independent with what assistance we could provide. It was a campaign aimed at supporting all of the Turkish people at the time. There were very strong ties between our people and we were all fighting the same enemy during that period; we were all at war against British hegemony. So we had overlapping interests and, in the name of this struggle, we wished to combine our strength and put together a fortified resistance. During that period, in our nation of India, there was an administration run by the British colonizers and it was around this time that steps and moves against this administration began to rise up in our country, eventually leading to our own struggle for independence. A great wave of emotion swept over our people, with people giving whatever they had -- food, clothing and money -- to help Turks and contribute to their War of Independence. As it was, we already had the strong ties of religion between our peoples. Because of this, we already felt our siblinghood and we already had warm feelings for each other's nationalities. When we were told that our siblings in Turkey needed our help, we immediately did everything we could to start up a campaign of assistance."

Another member of the Caliphate Committee, 84-year-old Hajji Muhammed Faruk, adores the Ottomans and wishes they were back in power. He is just one of thousands of Indian Muslims who love Turkey and who want to see Turkey as a leader in the world. Along with his five sons and two daughters, Faruk loves Turkey and everything about it.

Support of the Caliphate
[...]
We meet with one of the leaders of Hyderabad's Muslims, Muhammed Ikbal Khan. "During that period, in fact even after its collapse, the Ottoman Empire remained very popular in Muslim countries in particular. For example, I still wear an Ottoman fez. Simply in order to display the influence of the Ottomans, the fez was worn as a sign of the Ottomans in Egypt, Morocco, Syria, Hyderabad and throughout various regions of India and in other Muslim countries. We now have hopes for Turkey to be both an Asian country with great honor as well as a developed European country, God willing."
[...]
Next we took a one-and-a-half-hour flight to western India's city of Mumbai. We found ourselves thinking fondly of the Muslims we met in Kolkata and Hyderabad and about how much love and respect they had for the people of Anatolia -- and can't help but wonder when exactly Turkey will return the favor it owes Ikbal Khan's nation. I wonder, have we forgotten India, which, apart from Indonesia, has the world's largest Muslim population? What if these 150 million or so Muslims are waiting for a voice, for some assistance from Turkey?

05 June 2008, Thursday
SAIM ORHAN

Ameet · Post by **Ameet** » 05 Mar 2010 04:50

Turkey pulls envoy after U.S. vote on "genocide" label

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100304/pl_nm/us_turkey_usa

A U.S. congressional panel voted on Thursday to label as "genocide" the World War One-era massacre of Armenians by Turkish forces, prompting Turkey to recall its ambassador from Washington.

The House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee voted 23-22 to approve the non-binding resolution, which calls on President Barack Obama to ensure U.S. policy formally refers to the killings as genocide.

vavinash · Post by **vavinash** » 05 Mar 2010 05:07

Why do we need a thread for a (edited out - JE Menon) like turkey? Isn't west asia thread enough for them? The bozos think recalling ambassador from US will get them anything.

?? Useless antics. The armenian genocide has already been recognized by europe and US was sure to follow.

You have been banned - JE Menon

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 05 Mar 2010 08:07

brihaspati wrote:http://portal2.nottingham.ac.uk/shared/ ... -feb10.pdf

This doesnt open. You sure the link is publicly available, and not an intranet sharepoint post? And yes, we can take this discussion to another thread - whichever one you prefer..

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 05 Mar 2010 13:12

brihaspati wrote:http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detay ... ink=143879

So a comment made (and the comment is made in quite innocuous tones, dont find anything malicious at all) in a travelogue is evidence of an official conspiracy by Turkey??! Never mind what the President of Turkey says!!

This doesnt open

I managed to open the link - would have been a problem with the server...Will go through it - but its abstract and conclusion say nothing contrary to what I have said..In fact its a "limited view" study on the impact of PCI on trade flows..If anything, one of its conclusions is about higher price markups for higher PCI countries - translates to higher profits for the counterparty!

I will go through this in detail when I have a bit of time, but really, doesnt say anything to support your case, at least prima facie..

OT, but And University College of Dublin?!! Hadnt even heard of that - is that your idea of a "stalwart academic instituion"?!!

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 05 Mar 2010 18:13

Somnath ji,
where did I say UCD is a "stalwart institution"? The only context I discussed "stalwart" was in the context of your statements of having gone through "stalwart institutions" in India. In any case stalwart or not is not really important in current academics. Many institutions are big on using their past "glory" and absolute trash in terms of output. In any case I did not bring up the issue of stalwartness - you did - so I responded. I personally am on panels of interviewres for EU and UK institutions which are scored the among the highest within the zone. Just as some nukkadvasis, like RB, have been pointing out that so-called stalwart institution graduates turn out to be among the dumbest on capabilities but superb on the arrogance count - and are increasingly finding themslevs out in the cold - my experience ahs been the same.

We judge research quality on what the paper actually says, not where the author is affiliated to.You seem to think otherwise, which also is perhaps typical in the way unqualified adjectives crowd your pseudo-expertise expressions. As I predicted, you will ignore passages that try to point out that under certain conditions the classical assumption of positive correlation of growth in international trade with PCI differences may not be valid. Moreover this author categorically states that intra-country income distribution has a role in intercontry trade. As usual, from your agenda driven ideological viewpoint - nothing that goes against your agenda - is important/acceptable/or worth giving any attention.

Like our so-called "eminent historians" in the "loony fringe" who cross all limits of rationality and unbiasedness in their desperation to target only the so-called "right wing Hindu" - you will only pick up those passages that appear to support your claims, and completely ignore passages that do not support your conclusions. In all the posts that I have quoted so-far from economists, you have consistently ignored or dismissed the "negatives" and harped only on "positives". I have already put up three -you have not referred to similar analysis from your side at all.

This is the approach of the "salesperson" or "marketing executive". Aggressively only highlight or even build fantasies of "future profit" without pointing out the risks, and real conditions for worry. Give a vague broad rosy picture, without undertaking a detailed analysis. Rididcule and be casually and arrgoantly dismissive of any voices of caution. Suppress the risk factors or make light of them. It was exactly such approaches that contributed to many of the current financial difficulties.

I have been facing "marketing whizkids" for years - from wonderful stalwart institutions - marketing and touting "superb investment destinations". And I have seen how their propaganda has destroyed lives and livelihoods. These institutions and their hot-air marketing executives or salespersons will essentially be "bailed out" using the very public's money that they helped destroy - but it is important to caution the public for the future. If a national gov begins to lend wind to propaganda about investments into a country as "potential for exploding growth" which in the end, one way or the other, if it all goes wrong - will be taken quietly out of public money - it is necessary for the few voices of caution to speak out.

At least now in my host country, after all that mayhem, voices like me are taken more seriously. That is having an impact on policy which hopefully will prevent similar mishaps to a certain degree in the future.

As for the "travelogue", without it would you have known that a "Khilafat committee" still exists in India? By the way, I have at least produced 3 economics papers and one "travelogue" -which by the way comes from "zaman" a key channel for releasing "pro-gov" pieces from Turkish side (you can read up the articles on their main page and not how closely they toe the official lines). You on the other hand have only produced sarcasms and tall claims - no concrete counter-papers or a countre-travelogue for example that supports your claims.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 05 Mar 2010 22:35

Actually UCD is a pretty "stalwart" institution. Depends on what you mean by stalwart of course, but it is a pretty solid place in certain fields - from what I've heard.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 08 Mar 2010 06:39

Rachel's Tomb was never a Jewish site - Turkish PM

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=170394

I wonder what Israel is going to do while one of its most stalwart allies turns on it. With the US pushing for a 2-state solution, do they have any backers outside the EU? In the future they may have to look for new places to train their AF.

From Turkey's perspective, this is a good move to move towards other Muslim countries. This will yield Turkey more power and influence, and probably make Arabs nervous.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 08 Mar 2010 08:28

Weapon of terror - a lemon Justice Turkey style...

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php? ... 2010-03-07

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 08 Mar 2010 14:39

Powerful earthquake hits eastern Turkey. 57 reported dead so far.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 09 Mar 2010 07:28

They have revised toll down to 51...perhaps the other six turned out to be Arabs...

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 09 Mar 2010 07:55

Or Kurds, or Armenians...

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 09 Mar 2010 14:41

"Living proof" of Turkish genocide aaginst the Armrenians.How the Turks tried to forcibly convert Armenian orphans.
From Robert Fisk.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 18367.html

Excerpt:

The US wants to deny that Turkey's slaughter of 1.5 million Armenians in 1915 was genocide. But the evidence is there, in a hilltop orphanage near Beirut, reports Robert Fisk

The unmarked grave at Antoura for the bones that were found there in 1993

More pictures

It's only a small grave, a rectangle of cheap concrete marking it out, blessed by a flourish of wild yellow lilies. Inside are the powdered bones and skulls and bits of femur of up to 300 children, Armenian orphans of the great 1915 genocide who died of cholera and starvation as the Turkish authorities tried to "Turkify" them in a converted Catholic college high above Beirut. But for once, it is the almost unknown story of the surviving 1,200 children – between three and 15 years old – who lived in the crowded dormitory of this ironically beautiful cut-stone school that proves that the Turks did indeed commit genocide against the Armenians in 1915.

Barack Obama and his pliant Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton – who are now campaigning so pitifully to prevent the US Congress acknowledging that the Ottoman Turkish massacre of 1.5 million Armenians was a genocide – should come here to this Lebanese hilltop village and hang their heads in shame. For this is a tragic, appalling tale of brutality against small and defenceless children whose families had already been murdered by Turkish forces at the height of the First World War, some of whom were to recall how they were forced to grind up and eat the skeletons of their dead fellow child orphans in order to survive starvation.

Panian described how, after cruel treatment or through physical weakness, many children died. They were buried behind the old college chapel. "At night, the jackals and wild dogs would dig them up and throw their bones here and there ... at night, kids would run out to the nearby forest to get apples or any fruits they could find – and their feet would hit bones. They would take these bones back to their rooms and secretly grind them to make soup, or mix them with grain so they could eat them as there was not enough food at the orphanage. They were eating the bones of their dead friends."

Using college records, Emile Joppin, the head priest at the Lazarite Antoura college, wrote in the school's magazine in 1947 that "the Armenian orphans were Islamicised, circumcised and given new Arab or Turkish names. Their new names always kept the initials of the names in which they were baptised. Thus Haroutioun Nadjarian was given the name Hamed Nazih, Boghos Merdanian became Bekir Mohamed, to Sarkis Safarian was given the name Safouad Sulieman."

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 09 Mar 2010 21:12

Regardless, nothing good will come from recognizing it. Obama, Clinton, and Bush all know that.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 10 Mar 2010 02:19

What the Turks deny is that the Ottoman government in Istanbul planned and ordered (even secretly or tacitly) the liquidation of the Armenians.

It is a debate that all outsiders should be wary of getting caught up in, because there are no easy answers.

The very same things that happened to the Armenians - displacement, death from cold and starvation during forced relocation, and massacres by opportunistic tribesmen who robbed them of what they had left also happened to very large numbers of Muslims and non-Armenians displaced within the Ottoman Empire during the war. So the deaths and suffering of these Armenians don't in themselves prove state direction.

On the other hand, there was an Ottoman plan to liquidate the Jewish population of Palestine if they sided with the Allies. The German commander/advisor (ironic given what would happen 25 years later!) in Palestine prevented it from being put in to effect. So it's not hard to believe the Ottoman authorities were capable of thinking the same thoughts about the Armenians who were revolting in alliance with the Russians.

So all in all its a difficult question that should be dealt with by professional historians from Turkey, Armenia and the rest of the world, not the US Congress or any third party political forum.

Most interesting is the fact that Turkey and Armenia themselves are in the process of normalising relations (despite Turkey's relationship with Turkic Azerbaijan, Armenia's sworn enemy, and severe Azeri protests). It is the Armenian diaspora, particularly in the US that is pushing for a political confrontation with the Turkish Republic.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 10 Mar 2010 02:31

Indeed, the Islamist government is the one that has improved relations with Greece and Armenia.

To those who know, do the stances on the Armenian genocide differ between the Islamists and the secularists?

Masaru · Post by **Masaru** » 10 Mar 2010 02:59

Destined to disappear

Though their candlelit procession on All Soul’s Night hinted at a distant identity, most Armenians tried to camouflage giveaway names. Such are the complexes from which people without a land to call their own suffer.
... Armenians hovered on the fringe. When I visited a Georgian magazine editor in Tbilisi in 1990 with a Soviet diplomat of Armenian origin, the editor burst out as soon as my companion had left the room, “He’s not a loyal Soviet citizen. The only reason they stay is because they know the Turks will massacre them the moment they leave the Soviet Union!”
The Ottoman Turks did just that during World War I.

No great power can afford to let idealism run away with self-interest. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton supported the Armenian cause while on the stump. President Barack Obama did so even more resoundingly. “The Armenian genocide is not an allegation, a personal opinion or a point of view,” he thundered, “but rather a widely documented fact supported by an overwhelming body of historical evidence.” But visiting Istanbul last year, he downplayed the genocide — a word that makes Turkish politicians reach for their revolvers — to “one of the great atrocities of the 20th century.”

Despite modest public relations campaigns in Paris and Washington, and though an independent Armenia now exists, Armenians do not have the international reach of Zionists or even Tibetans. Few in India have heard of their plight and Kolkata’s once thriving Armenian community is now vanishing. With canny prescience, Hitler asked when he was preparing his anti-Jew campaign, “Who speaks today of the annihilation of Armenians?” Ohanian’s transformation into Ohan and being mistaken for Mohan confirms that the Armenian diaspora’s destiny is to disappear.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Mar 2010 00:41

Nightwatch 3/10/10....

Turkey-Saudi Arabia: On 9 March, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan received the King Faisal International Prize for Service to Islam in Saudi Arabia, according to Turkey’s state-run Anatolia news agency today.

The King Faisal International Prize is presented to scientists and others who make contributions to Islam and a positive difference in the world. At the award ceremony, Erdogan said Turkey has strived to establish peace, stability and security in the region and the world.

Comment: To recap the action, the Saudis gave the supposed leader of a secular state – Turkey -- an award for his service to Islam. That would seem to clinch the argument in Turkey’s constitutional court about Erdogan’s service to Turkey’s secular constitution and history. The Saudis openly encouraged Erdogan’s erosion of the legacy of Ataturk.

STRATFOR’s thesis is the Saudis are looking to Turkey to act as an ally in restraining Iranian pretensions to regional hegemony. The Turks have their own leadership aspirations which involve pursuing a neo-Ottoman strategy that joins Sunnis and Shias under enlightened, of course, Turkish leadership.

Even if the Turks do not cooperate much with the Saudis, the Turkish-Persian rivalry for regional dominance is rooted in thousands of years of history. The Arabs are clever enough to revive that old dispute while sitting on the sidelines. Erdogan and the Iranian Ayatollahs are arrogant enough to fall for the bait.

The history of the Middle East in three lines.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 13 Mar 2010 10:20

How the West Lost Turkey

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... f=obinsite

Masaru · Post by **Masaru** » 13 Mar 2010 15:25

A nation of conspiracies

Last fall, having observed that few women in Istanbul took martial-arts classes, I conceived the idea to work with local instructors on creating a women's self-defense initiative. My project met with initial enthusiasm, particularly among women concerned with the high rate of domestic violence in Turkey. But other martial arts instructors in the city grew uneasy, sensing a plot to swindle them out of their small pieces of the martial-arts pie. Istanbul quickened with lunatic rumors that the initiative was a conspiracy to disparage the other instructors' martial prowess and steal their students. Martial-arts cliques consumed themselves with plotting and counter-plotting. Secret tribunals were held, covert alliances formed, poison-pen letters sent, friends betrayed. I gave up in disgust.

A great secular role model.

The West, understandably, is concerned about the trouble in Turkey. Particularly disturbing is the growing anti-Israel animus of Turkey's foreign policy and its growing intimacy with the most extremist regimes and parties of the Islamic world. Turkey's trade with Iran is galloping. Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the first international figure to host Hamas. He has called for the expulsion of Israel from the U.N. while offering diplomatic support for the denial of genocide in Darfur. Turkey has seen three military coups in the past half century—by definition, you can't have a coup without a conspiracy.

A vibrant democratic culture

Almost everyone in Turkey subscribes to one of two conspiracy narratives about this party or its antagonists. In the first, the AKP is a party of religious deception that seeks to bring all elements of the government under its control. Its hidden goal is the eradication of the secular state, the wrenching of Turkey from the West, and, ultimately, the imposition of Islamic law. In this narrative, the specter of the sect leader Fethullah Gülen, who has undefined ties to the party and has taken exile in Utah, arouses particular dread. His critics fear he is the Turkish Ayatollah Khomenei; they say that his acolytes have seeped into the organs of the Turkish body politic, where they lie poised, like a zombie army, to be awakened by his signal.

The second version holds that the AKP is exactly what it purports to be: a modern and democratic party with which the West can and should do business. Mr. Gülen's followers say the real conspirators are instead members of the so-called Deep State—what they call a demented, multitentacled secret alliance of high-level figures in the military, the intelligence services, the judiciary and organized crime.

And a little bit of insight into the socio-economic scene and potential

Reports of economic miracles under the AKP have, as everyone now understands, been exaggerated by statistical legerdemain. This is all too easy to do, because Turkey has one of the largest underground economies in the world, worth somewhere between one-third and two-thirds of the country's GDP. Every major economic sector in Turkey is largely off-the-record. No one can say confidently whether these sectors are growing or shrinking, and even officially, Turkey now has the second-highest rate of unemployment in Europe. This is hardly the mark of an expanding middle class.Each citizen believes that to survive, he must lie and conspire. Everyone assumes everyone else is lying and conspiring against him because he himself is lying and conspiring.

Almost the same story template can be used about the other great nation at the other extreme end of the Moslem world too.

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 16 Mar 2010 00:38

Brihaspatiji,

My allusion to "stalwart" (btw, your word, not mine) institutions was only in response to your constant (unsubstantiated) assertions of a fantastic new theory on international trade and references to your academic background (and that being somehow superior to a "practitioner's" background)..Anyway, its a minor quibble, not germane to the discussion..

Let me start by quoting from the paper you posted (which, btw, has absolutely no great new insights on the theories of international trade - its a simple, honest effort on establishing econometric patterns of a particular dimension of the same)..

Any budget study I have ever seen makes it very clear that budget
shares across goods and services depend very much on per capita income and that the income elasticities of demand for many groups of goods and services differ substantially from one.

In both competitive and imperfectcompetition
cases (a) the effects of growth are quite different depending on whether it is growth in productivity or in factor accumulation. (b) when per-capita incomes differ between countries, there is inter-industry trade even with identical aggregate incomes and relative
factor endowments.

I can go on and on, but it simply does not say anywhere that a country with high PCI and/or high aggregate GDP and reasonable degree of open-ness in trade relations will not have significant levels of trade because of some fancy new concept...If I have missed soemthing related to that, please point it out..

brihaspati wrote:I have been facing "marketing whizkids" for years - from wonderful stalwart institutions - marketing and touting "superb investment destinations". And I have seen how their propaganda has destroyed lives and livelihoods. These institutions and their hot-air marketing executives or salespersons will essentially be "bailed out" using the very public's money that they helped destroy - but it is important to caution the public for the future. If a national gov begins to lend wind to propaganda about investments into a country as "potential for exploding growth" which in the end, one way or the other, if it all goes wrong - will be taken quietly out of public money - it is necessary for the few voices of caution to speak out.

Well, well, so the oft used brush of the responsibility of the financial crisis on bankers (thats the generic expression used, you are using "salespeople")....OT here, but are the academics any less culpable? Starting with Harry Markowitz and Bill Sharpe (CAPM and MPT with its heroic assumptions taught in all instittuions, stalwart and otherwise, thereby screwing up the fundamental principles of a generation of fund managers)...Or MErton Scholes et al, who brought down the world twice - first in practice (remember LTCM?) and then in theory (their pricing models are in no mean way repsonisble for the risk management models implemented in banks)..Or Alan GReenspan? Or "helicopter" Ben? The number of academics who said most variables are "normal"?! So the blame has to be equaly shared here...But OT completely..

The thread was for indo-Turkish trade, and for the possibilities, I would again urge you to start with the WTO report I had posted...Has enough data on the size and potential and growth of Turkish trade...In case you think thats not enough, well, give me some reason for that, even if its just a thought experiment, and not a well researched output..But remember being an academic you can only hypothesize...Practitioners around the world are voting with their money on this point by investing significant sums in Turkey, and Indian practitioners would be fools to miss out (and we are among the smartest)...

Masaru ji,

The WSJ article is very similar to certain articles written about India from time to time (violence in Kashmir, Maoist insurgency, black money - reputed to be half the formal economy, political instability most fo the time, high fiscal deficits...)....Journalists are paid to "spin" a story one way or the other...

I would ask you to hear what the practitioners, people in charge of making investment decisions and adi\vising others to make their, have to say...

This is Nomura's 2010 global macro report..

http://www.scribd.com/doc/24246267/NOMU ... ic-Outlook

Do go through the section on Turkey - page 64..Also go through page 4 - the forecasts on growth and some other numbers for the year..Turkey has the highest projected growth rates in Europe - @4.4%, its mighty respectable for the country that has a PCI of USD 10k...

Stratfor is spot on - Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia will jockey for influence in the middle east - we have a unique opportunity to be an " equidistant" power to all three...Very few countries barring China has that hisotrical-strategic advantage...

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 16 Mar 2010 08:12

Somnath wrote
My allusion to "stalwart" (btw, your word, not mine) institutions was only in response to your constant (unsubstantiated) assertions of a fantastic new theory on international trade and references to your academic background (and that being somehow superior to a "practitioner's" background)..Anyway, its a minor quibble, not germane to the discussion..

I did not assert any "fantastic" [again your coinage] new theory. I only disputed your constant representation of the Turkish economy as aomething with which Indian trade and growth can "explode". Never, ever, before I raised the issue and quoted from at least two economists who were also pointing out the potential pitfalls and weaknesses of the Turkish economy, their cautionary pointer that the potential of growth for the Turkish economy could be over-optimistic and in fact exaggarated - you did not once happen to mention the negatives and the risks alongside the lucrative picture you were painting. In fact one author I quoted extensively pointed out exactly the hyper-propaganda coming from "international" bodies/assessors etc about the prospects of the Turkish economy as not being realistic - an euphemism for "deceptive".

I have repeatedly said that your insistence on high per capita income as a prime driver of intercountry trade need not be true and the nature of trade could actually depend on income distribution within the country rather than a macro aggregate like the PCI. It was you who repeatedly countered with sarcastic comments about "fancy new theory" which should fetch a "Nobel Prize".

Let me start by quoting from the paper you posted (which, btw, has absolutely no great new insights on the theories of international trade - its a simple, honest effort on establishing econometric patterns of a particular dimension of the same)..

Quote:
Any budget study I have ever seen makes it very clear that budget
shares across goods and services depend very much on per capita income and that the income elasticities of demand for many groups of goods and services differ substantially from one.

In both competitive and imperfectcompetition
cases (a) the effects of growth are quite different depending on whether it is growth in productivity or in factor accumulation. (b) when per-capita incomes differ between countries, there is inter-industry trade even with identical aggregate incomes and relative
factor endowments.

I can go on and on, but it simply does not say anywhere that a country with high PCI and/or high aggregate GDP and reasonable degree of open-ness in trade relations will not have significant levels of trade because of some fancy new concept...If I have missed soemthing related to that, please point it out..

It seems that you have not gone beyond the introduction. This author's ambit is clearly stated in the beginning - that he wants to "re-establish" the importance of PCI in international trade - the main reason that I ref'd his article. He is likely to be stringly sympathetic or focused in this paper on showing the most favourable arguments for PCI. So if even he is forced to acknowledge possibilities of departure from your simplistic projection of PCI being a prime driver of inter-country trade - that would be important - no?

Here is what he writes on page 3 :

An area where per-capita income does play an important role is in the analysis of
product quality. If a consumer is going to buy only one unit of a good or zero, then the
quality demanded is likely to depend on per-capita income. This makes the average level of
per-capita income important for trade but also the intra-country distribution of income
matters for inter-country trade. I have always felt that the reason there are so many Mercedes
in Africa is due to the highly unequal distribution of income: if everyone had the average
income there would be none. Because the issues connected with product quality are
somewhat better understood and because they require a quite different analytical approach,
they will not feature in this paper despite their importance. For analyses of product quality
and/or the importance of intra-country income distribution (which I will treat briefly) see
Choi, Hummels and Xiang (2009), Dalgin, Trindade and Mitra (2008),Fajgelbaum, Grossman
and |Helpman (2009), Flam and Helpman (1987), Francois and Kaplan (1996), Hallak (2006),
Manova and Zhang (2009), Mitra and Trindade (2005), Schott (2004), Shaked and Sutton
(1983, 1984), and Stokey (1991).

Again on page 8 :

Figure 7 shows a role for intra-country income distribution, which I deal with briefly
because it has been noted before.3 If each consumer in a country has enough income as given
in (4) to want positive amounts of X, then the linear property of the Engel’s curve means that
redistribution of income within the country (subject to (4) continuing to hold for all
households) does not affect aggregate demand. But if redistribution puts some households on
the vertical section of the curve in Figure 1 where they only buy Y (points below Y0), then it
does matter.
Figure 7 conducts an experiment in which two identical household types have the
same identical amounts of L and K, but we scale up and the productivity of one type (high)
and down the productivity of the other, which holds aggregate production possibilities
constant. The share of income spent on X increases for high and decreases for low as shown.
Eventually, the low-income type stops consuming X while the high-income type continues to
devote a larger share of income to X. Thus aggregate X production and consumption (a
simple closed-economy is shown) increase even though the production frontier is unchanged.
As in Figure 3, the relative prices of X and K must rise. As has been noted before, an
increasing spread in the income distribution leads to a larger aggregate demand for luxury
goods (those Mercedes in Africa).

The discussion from pages 11-14 should be illustrative. And finally, the author himself acknowledges that

As suggested in the introduction, there are bits-and-pieces of theoretical and empiricalanalysis about the role or roles for per-capita income in determining trade flows. But there islittle unity and by and large per-capita income is not given much of a place as an important
determinant of trade.

Well, well, so the oft used brush of the responsibility of the financial crisis on bankers (thats the generic expression used, you are using "salespeople")....OT here, but are the academics any less culpable? Starting with Harry Markowitz and Bill Sharpe (CAPM and MPT with its heroic assumptions taught in all instittuions, stalwart and otherwise, thereby screwing up the fundamental principles of a generation of fund managers)...Or MErton Scholes et al, who brought down the world twice - first in practice (remember LTCM?) and then in theory (their pricing models are in no mean way repsonisble for the risk management models implemented in banks)..Or Alan GReenspan? Or "helicopter" Ben? The number of academics who said most variables are "normal"?! So the blame has to be equaly shared here...But OT completely..

Oh, yes there were academics who proposed theoretical models to try and explain what the "practitioners" were doing anyway for a long time. CAPM and MPT were attempts to model phenomena in markets that were happening independent of Markowitz et al, just as Merton-Scholes simplistic Gaussian SDE was a modelling attempt to explain financial market price data. But there were an equal or significant number of academics who early began to point out the shortcomings of the models and proposed modifications of their own. That is how academics work, and they quickly correct older models or are not really shy of proposing corrections or alternatives. Did we see similar behaviour in the "practitioners"?

Let for arguments sake assume that "academics" were equal-equal onlee to blame : but then you write

The thread was for indo-Turkish trade, and for the possibilities, I would again urge you to start with the WTO report I had posted...Has enough data on the size and potential and growth of Turkish trade...In case you think thats not enough, well, give me some reason for that, even if its just a thought experiment, and not a well researched output..But remember being an academic you can only hypothesize...Practitioners around the world are voting with their money on this point by investing significant sums in Turkey, and Indian practitioners would be fools to miss out (and we are among the smartest)...

So academics only hypothesize - the real decision are taken by "practitioners"!! So the blundering decisions were taken indeed by the "practitioner" bankers, and academics have to share a blame for their near-criminal decisions? Didnt practitioners around the world vote with their money for "Dubai"? We hosted some of the most vociferous propagandists from "international" bodies at an inter-uni meet of financial mathematicians where one theme was "Dubai": ah how eloquent they waxed about the possibility and potential of "explosive" growth, how derisive and sarcastic they were to all contradictory voices of caution. So the "practitioners" invest and vote with their money - and when they lose it, quietly, very quietly public money is taken up to cover their a****. But then in that "academics" must share in the blame - even if many among them had raised opposing voices, but none - absolutely not one of the practitioners were heard raising any objection!!!

Oh yes there are plenty of studies and data - and not just the WTO. Some of which as referred to by me, (and quoted and posted) point out several worrying issues with the growth prospect of the Turkish economy. All of which of course you have dismissed as "standard SWOT" analysis. If "weaknesses" become mere part of "SWOT" analysis and has no bearing on investment decisions as you imply - I know not what use is discussing finance or economics with you!

Shall we cease to respond to each other and close this line of debate?

James B · Post by **James B** » 07 Apr 2010 01:21

Power struggle escalates in Turkish coup plot case

A power struggle between Turkey's Islamic-rooted government and its fiercely secular military escalated Tuesday when a court formally charged a senior general with plotting to overthrow the civilian leadership.

The former head of the country's National Security Council, Gen. Sukru Sariisik, joined dozens of serving and retired senior officers accused of conspiring to destabilize the government in a conspiracy dubbed Balyoz, or "the sledgehammer." The court also charged another retired general and a colonel.

Prosecutors have not made public any evidence or even details of the accusations since they were first made in January. But the national newspaper Taraf has published what it calls leaked copies of documents by the conspirators detailing their plans. Those include blowing up at least two major mosques during Friday prayers; assassinating some Christian and Jewish leaders; and shooting down a Turkish warplane and blaming it on Greece, the country's historic rival.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 07 Apr 2010 01:31

What happens if in few years Turkey does declare itself as formal Islamic state? Perhaps Islamic republic?

What are its implications on Dar-al-Islam and rest of the world's relations? Will it snatch away the position of KSA?

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 07 Apr 2010 02:26

That will be an interesting development. If it was not another potential extension of formal Islamism, I would have been excited at the chance of having a triangular contest for the crown of the Ummah between KSA, Turkey, and Iran. But it is entirely possible that Russia could encourage Turkey in this direction. That would make the uneasy relations with EU more explicit, clearing Russian way into Med. And a Iranian-Turkish axis to press on KSA. The Turkish Islamists will not be fools, I hope. They stand to gain much more if they continue what they are posing as now for longer.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 07 Apr 2010 03:11

Atri wrote:What happens if in few years Turkey does declare itself as formal Islamic state? Perhaps Islamic republic?

What are its implications on Dar-al-Islam and rest of the world's relations? Will it snatch away the position of KSA?

There are too many people in Turkey uncomfortable with Islamism. I think it's more likely for Turkey to contest for "leadership" of the Islamic world slowly as a secular state. To be the "leader" of the Islamic world, it doesn't have to be the seat of Islamic jurisprudence, it simply has to be a powerful, influential state that Muslims respect. I think it will get there well before KSA and IRI.

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 07 Apr 2010 06:48

Saw this on Bloomberg on Turkey - posting in full..

Wire: BLOOMBERG News (BN) Date: Apr 6 2010 17:01:26
Turkey Overtaking Germany No Wishful Thinking on Paradigm Shift

By Steve Bryant and Ben Holland
April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Erda Gercek spent 20 years outside
Turkey, identifying stock market winners as a fund manager at
Citigroup Inc. and Legg Mason Inc. Now he has moved back to his
homeland, saying it’s a buy.
“In the time I was away, Turkey went from a highly
volatile, boom-and-bust economy to one that’s relatively stable
as inflation and interest rates came down,” Gercek, 44, said in
an interview from Izmir, south of Istanbul. He said he’s
“nurturing future talent,” teaching courses in fund management
at Istanbul’s Bilgi University and Izmir Economy University.
The paradigm shift, as market strategist John Lomax of HSBC
Holdings Plc calls it, was engineered by a government that the
military and prosecutors say is trying to turn Turkey into an
Islamic state. As Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan fought off
pressure from secularist generals who ousted four governments
since 1960 and also a lawsuit to shut his party, he reined in
government spending, sold state-owned companies and crisscrossed
the region to open trade doors for Turkish business.
The payoff has been average economic growth of 4.4 percent
since he was first elected in 2002. Gross domestic product
increased at an annual rate of 6 percent in the fourth quarter
of 2009, lagging behind only China among the Group of 20
nations, the government said last week. Deputy Prime Minister
Ali Babacan said April 2 the economy may have expanded by more
than 10 percent in the first quarter.
Turkey’s $620-billion economy could move ahead of Germany’s
to become the third-biggest in Europe by 2050, behind Russia and
the U.K., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Ahmet Akarli wrote
in a report published in 2008.

11 Countries

It was a follow-up to research by Jim O’Neill, Goldman
Sachs’s chief global economist, that listed Turkey among
emerging markets that could become world leaders. O’Neill’s
study was published in 2005, the year Turkey started talks to
join the European Union.
It’s the youth of Turkey’s 73 million people that drives
much of the optimism. More than a quarter are under 15 years old
and 6.3 percent are over 65, according to the 2009 census. In
the U.S., 19 percent are under 15 and over-65s make up 13
percent of the 316 million population, data compiled by
Bloomberg show.
Turkey is also younger than China, where 19 percent of 1.4
billion people are under 15 and 8.4 percent over 65. In
countries that share the euro, 17.5 percent are over 65 and 16
percent are under 15.
Turkey’s demographics “can sustain very high levels of
growth,” and there’s “ample potential” to put more young
people to work in industries that are more productive, Gercek
said. Sustaining 6 percent growth “seems to me to be perfectly
achievable,” he said.

IMF ‘Walking Stick’

Erdogan, 56, has cast aside what he calls “walking stick”
loans from the International Monetary Fund, which sustained
Turkey through most of the past two decades.
The premier announced March 10 that Turkey was breaking off
almost two years of loan renewal talks with the IMF and turning
its back on a credit line worth as much as $40 billion. Turkey
survived the global economic crisis on its own, without bailing
out a single bank, and doesn’t need the money, the premier said.
In the past, any glitch in Turkey-IMF talks would prompt
investors to sell. The lira shed 2.6 percent of its value
against the dollar in two days in March 2005 as legislative
delays threatened a $10 billion IMF loan. The benchmark ISE 100
stock index slumped 20 percent in two weeks in July 2001 amid a
dispute with the IMF over selling state companies.
Now, investors are betting Erdogan is right. The ISE-100
has climbed about 130 percent in dollar terms in the past 12
months, almost double the gain of Morgan Stanley Capital
International’s benchmark emerging market index. The Turkish
index is up more than 10 percent since the March 10 break with
the IMF.

Lira Steady

Lower inflation has reduced bond yields, above 50 percent
for much of the pre-Erdogan decade, to about 9 percent. And the
lira has held close to 1.50 per dollar since October 2008, even
as the central bank slashed interest rates by more than half to
a record low of 6.5 percent. The cost of insuring against a
default on Turkish debt plunged in the past 12 months to 165
basis points from 360 a year ago.
Investors now reckon six EU member countries, including
Turkey’s neighbors Greece and Bulgaria, are more likely to
default. Greece’s ratio of debt to GDP will rise to 96.3 percent
this year, according to a January government forecast. Turkey’s
official target is 49 percent.
Greece, Turkey’s longtime rival, has profited from its
neighbor’s rise: National Bank of Greece SA, the nation’s
biggest lender, generated 46 percent of net income last year
from its Turkish unit Finansbank AS in Istanbul.

Buying Balkans

Now it’s Turkish companies that are potential buyers
outside their home market. Turkiye Is Bankasi AS, the country’s
biggest publicly traded bank, may buy assets in Balkan countries
should they come up for sale as Greek competitors feel the pinch
of the government’s budget cuts.
“We keep looking for opportunities, and I think the
problems in Greece will trigger some interest by Turkish banks
in the Balkans,” Is Bankasi Chief Executive Officer Ersin
Ozince said at an Istanbul press conference on March 31. He
declined to give details and said the bank has “no immediate
plan” for investments in the region.
Greece is trying to cut its deficit to 8.7 percent of GDP
this year from 12.7 percent in 2009, the biggest any euro member
nation has reported in the currency’s 11-year history. Turkey is
on course to beat its deficit goal of 4.9 percent of GDP in
2010.

Mexican Food

Turkey’s prosperity is visible in the villas and new
apartments in the Cayyolu suburb west of Ankara, where in the
evenings Turks gather at Mexican or Chinese restaurants and
drink specialty beers. Fifteen years ago it was wheat fields.
Chosen as the capital by Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal
Ataturk in 1923, Ankara was at the heart of his efforts to
emancipate women, restrict the social role of Islam and develop
the economy through state planning. It’s still the headquarters
of state companies such as agricultural lender TC Ziraat Bankasi
AS, Turkey’s biggest bank.
Erdogan, who hails from the business capital, Istanbul, has
dismantled the state-dominated economy, selling more than $30
billion of government assets since coming to power in 2002.
While the premier has promised to win EU membership for
Turkey, the bloc’s cold shoulder in recent years, driven by
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela
Merkel, has pushed him to seek friends elsewhere.
In the past seven years, while total annual exports tripled
to $102 billion, sales to the Middle East grew twice as fast.
Erdogan has worked to build political ties in the region that
will help companies expand. He flew to Syria in December with
more than 200 company executives on his plane.

Government Listens

Erdogan’s government has paid attention to the needs of
business, said Bulent Celebi, who returned to Turkey in 2004
after more than a decade working in California’s Silicon Valley.
Celebi has set up AirTies, an Istanbul-based maker of wireless
routers and Internet television technology.
“I used to come to all these conferences and do all these
great speeches and think that nobody ever listens, but maybe
they listened,” Celebi said. “They took tangible action. They
said OK, every school in Turkey is going to have ADSL.”
Turk Telekomunikasyon AS in Ankara has extended broadband
networks throughout the country, said Celebi, whose company had
$36 million of sales last year. He also cited laws that
encourage research by granting tax incentives and measures that
require technology investors to use local products.

Cheapest in a Generation

Credit is the cheapest in a generation for Turkish
companies as banks, including Isbank and Istanbul-based Akbank
TAS, in which New York-based Citigroup holds a 20 percent stake,
followed Central Bank Governor Durmus Yilmaz in lowering
interest rates. Consumer prices rose 5.1 percent in the 12
months through October, the lowest in almost four decades.
The inflation rate has since increased to 9.6 percent,
prompting some economists to question whether Turkey has solved
its long-term problems.
“In the most disinflationary environment you can imagine,
inflation bottomed out at 5 percent and, in the blink of an eye,
ping, it was back at 10 percent,” said Akarli, the author of
Goldman Sachs’s 2008 report on Turkey’s prospects of pulling
ahead of Germany.
Surpassing Germany is a long way off. The German economy
was about $3.6 trillion in 2009, more than five times the size
of Turkey’s. Germany’s jobless rate is 8 percent, almost half
the rate in Turkey, where about 1 million young people enter the
workforce every year.

Judicial Appointments

Erdogan’s political battles aren’t over, either. He
proposed constitutional changes last month that would make it
harder to ban political parties -- a fate the premier himself
narrowly escaped in 2008 when the Constitutional Court rejected
a lawsuit to close his party by a single vote -- and increase
parliament’s role in judicial appointments.
Opposition leaders and top judges lined up to denounce
Erdogan, who could become Turkey’s longest-serving premier for
more than 60 years if he wins re-election in 2011, for
politicizing the courts. Secular opposition leader Deniz Baykal
called the proposals a “fiasco.”
Investors haven’t been fazed. The main share index rose 14
percent in March. That’s partly because Turkey’s economy has
matured to a level where it’s increasingly insulated from
political upheaval, said Murat Koprulu, the Turkish-born
chairman of Multilateral Funding International in New York,
which manages about $120 million of emerging-market assets.
“It’s not an agrarian economy, it’s not a desert economy,
it’s an economy with a deep manufacturing base and a large
middle class,” Koprulu said. Turkey “is going to pick itself
up again after a political crisis and show some growth again.”

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 12 Apr 2010 05:51

For most of its history the Ottoman Empire was one of the wealthiest states and one of the largest economies in the world.

Much of that came from sitting at the greatest intersection of trade routes in the world - Europe, Africa, East Asia and the Subcontinent.

The state was not simply passive - it encouraged, and in fact protected those trade flows, which is why for most of its history Jews, Armenians, Greeks, etc prospered.

There was also a strong internal tradition of craftsmanship and commercial entrepreneurship that was supported and patronised. For example gunpowder and cannons came to Europe from China through the Ottoman Empire. Until the late 16th century the Ottoman Empire was actually ahead in bronze and brass casting of cannons, which is why Ottoman naval power continued to expand at the expense of the Europeans.

Much of this environment was built on the foundation of a strong, but relatively hands-off state. The Ottoman state's survival, particularly in the face of rapid European educational, technological and commercial change, and ensuing pressure was to centralise authority. They did it in ways that stifled innovation, productivity and the security of ordinary people. This process continued and even intensified under both the Young Turks, Ataturk and his successors. In many ways Ataturk's model of forcible modernisation from above had far more in common with Russia's history than any Western state such as France or Germany that was held up as a model.

What has been happening since the early 1980s under Turgut Ozal is fundmental sea change in 300 years - the Turkish state has been gradually retreating, and allowing people to do their own thing - to make things and sell things, and build relationships with Muslims and non-Muslims, but in an environment of global engagement and modern laws and education.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 14 Apr 2010 23:49

ramana wrote:
Carl_T wrote:I think equating Turkey with Pakistan is a giant stretch. If anything, Turks are proud of their identity and are not obsessed with denying their own history the way Pakis are.
Dont know were to start.

Well for starters, the Turks are carpet baggers/nomads who moved into this area by conquest. They are not native to the land called Turkey. They are from Central Asia. Its called Turkey now because they occupied it and converted the whole lot and devleoped the Turkish identity over centuries. The parts that didnt fit into the identity all broke off after WWI: Arabs, Armenia, Balkans etc. There is no need for them to deny their history.

Its not like Pakis who are have a small segment of invaders but want to indentify with those invaders and reject earlier narratives. If you have time read Naipaul's two books : "Among the Believers" and the "Beyond Belief"

If you note the Turks (Seljuk, Ottomon etc) conquered the Arabs and even created their own Islamic mullahs the Naqshbandi sufis. Hence they do not have the converted people idenity crisis. In fact Wahabism is a reaction to the sufi control of Islam during the Ottomon phase.

I agree that the Turks don't have the same "converted identity crisis" as they have their own "glorious past" to admire as they've dominated the Arabs, but regarding Pakistan, the Mughals have the same Turkic origin as the Ottomans originally did. If the Pakis wanted, the "glorious Mughal past" would be a template for national identity in the way the Ottoman past is for Turkey. Yet, TSP doesn't remotely view the Arabs in the same way. Could anyone clarify? I'm not too clear on these dynamics.

[Confused Rambling]
Now granted the Turkics in India and TSP (after Babur) created Persian-inspired rule, so a Turkic identity for TSP is out of the question. I imagine that in Turkey the national identity is based on ethnic pride whereas in TSP they've systematically failed to do the same. So is it as a failure of creating an ethnic nationalism that they have to build cultural links to Arabs?
[/Confused Rambling]

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 17 Apr 2010 10:57

Leave it to Turkish soap operas to conquer hearts and minds

http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/ ... _and_minds

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 24 Apr 2010 21:03

Turks in Istanbul commemorate 1915 killings of Armenians
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php? ... 2010-04-24

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 24 Apr 2010 21:29

The Turks are desperate for EU and are using all kinds of compararisions to boost their case.

The 'EU's China' needs the 'EU's India'

Germany has been described as “Europe’s China,” an island of high savings and surpluses. Turkey can be “Europe’s India.” Our improving deficits as a percentage of GDP, low unit labor costs and rising unit productivity along with untapped intellectual capital and demographics that can turn around EU stalling R&D performance are at the heart of resolving those seven troubling chapters. Let’s add the fact no intelligent solution to either the CAP or Europe’s energy future is possible without Turkey.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 21 May 2010 11:09

Turkey's Zero Problems Foreign Policy
by Ahmed Davutoglu, Turkish Foreign Minister

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... ign_policy

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 29 Jul 2010 22:31

Turkey in Cyprus vs. Israel in Gaza

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 14 Aug 2010 15:33

Report: Turkey Used Chemical Weapons Against Kurds

According to a report that was published on Thursday in the German magazine Der Spiegel, German experts have confirmed the authenticity of photographs that show that PKK fighters in Turkey were killed by chemical weapons.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 07 Oct 2010 18:22

X-Posted from Managing Chinese Threat Thread

Published on Wednesday, October 6, 2010
By Bill Gertz
Chinese missile test: The Washington Times

Turkish-Chinese war games

The Pentagon said Wednesday that the Turkish government promised to protect U.S. defense technology during its recent military exercises with China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) — drills that analysts say may have compromised key NATO war-fighting secrets.

Army Lt. Col. Tamara Parker, a Pentagon spokeswoman, confirmed European press reports of the unusual aerial military exercises last month involving U.S.-made Turkish jets and Chinese Su-27 fighters that engaged in simulated aerial combat.

"The government of Turkey is committed to the NATO Alliance and the continuation of strong ties to the United States, and Turkey assured us they would take the utmost care related to their possession of U.S. and NATO technologies," Col. Parker told Inside the Ring.

However, she did not address the issue of whether the Chinese military might have learned sensitive NATO aerial combat information.

Jane's Defense Weekly, quoting Turkish diplomatic sources, stated that the exercises involved less-capable U.S.-made F-4s and Chinese Su-27s, but not more advanced U.S.-made F-16s.

Ed Timperlake, a former Marine Corps fighter pilot and former Pentagon technology security official, said allowing the Chinese air force to exercise with a NATO ally poses security risks.

"'You fight like you train' is a saying from Top Gun school," Mr. Timperlake said. "The Turkish air force helping the PLAAF to see NATO combat tactics and training up close and personal is a very bad idea. It is deadly serious stuff."

Mr. Timperlake said the exercises and Turkey's warming relations with neighboring Iran should lead the Pentagon to rethink its decision to sell the new F-35 jet to Turkey.

Richard Fisher, a specialist on China's military at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, also criticized Turkey's military for conducting aerial exercises with a communist power that poses a threat to U.S. and allied security interests in Asia. "It's not a good thing," he said.

Mr. Fisher said Turkey in the late 1990s used Chinese technology to jointly develop short-range B611 missiles.

The Tehran Press TV Online reported on Monday that Iran opened its airspace to the Turkish and Chinese jets.

"All of this raises questions about Turkey's continued slide away from the West," Mr. Fisher said.

The joint Turkish-Chinese war games also were held before the scheduled visit to Turkey by Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao.

China basically has neutralized the Uyghur secessionist threat. The Nationalist Uyghur uprising would have meant support from Turkic countries, mainly Turkey. The Islamist Uyghur uprising would have meant support from Islamist groups in Af-Pak region, and by having Pakjabi Army at its beck and call, the PRC need not be all too worried about Islamist threat either. In fact the PRC influence is so great in Pakistan, one would expect PRC to use the Jihadis against West and India with plenty of room for plausible deniability.

It seems China, Turkey and Iran are building a certain alliance. One could ask whether it is the Pakistanis again who have again brought PRC and another power closer, this time Turkey. It can of course, also be the case that Iran wants to wean away Turkey from NATO, so PRC and Iran have worked closely to that effect.

India should closely observe how China manages to pick up some of the strongest allies of the rival - US's partner Turkey, India's partners Nepal and Sri Lanka, etc.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 07 Oct 2010 18:24

X-Posted from Managing Chinese Threat Thread

Published Sep 30, 2010
Turkey, China conduct joint air maneuvers: Today's Zaman

Turkish and Chinese militaries recently conducted a joint aerial exercise in central Anatolia, the first such exercise involving the air forces of NATO member Turkey and China.

The joint exercise was part of Turkey’s Anatolian Eagle maneuvers, which have so far been carried out jointly with US, other NATO countries and Israel. They took place sometime this month in the central Anatolian province of Konya, where Anatolian Eagle maneuvers traditionally take place, Today’s Zaman has learned. Turkish F-16s and Chinese SU-27s and Russian-made MIG-29s took part in the joint exercise, staging a mock dogfight in central Anatolian airspace. The exercise comes ahead of a planned visit by Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to Turkey next month, which officials say will boost relations to a new level. The two sides are expected to sign several agreements on economic and cultural cooperation during the Chinese prime minister’s visit.

Turkey has recently modified its security policy, removing neighbors from a list of countries considered as threats to national security.

Published on Sun Oct 3, 2010
Iran opens airspace to China warplanes: Press TV

The Islamic Republic of Iran has reportedly opened its airspace to Chinese warplanes taking part in joint military maneuvers with Turkey.

Published on Monday, October 4, 2010
Turkey invited China to join NATO air exercise after U.S. withdrew: World Tribune

They said the Chinese were invited after the United States and other NATO members had turned down an invitation to participate in Anatolian Eagle in the late summer of 2010.
"The United States immediately expressed its displeasure in private," a Turkish source said.

On Sept. 30, the Turkish daily Taraf reported the Chinese participation in Anatolian Eagle, based in the Turkish air base in Konya. Taraf said Washington monitored the Chinese air maneuvers and demanded an explanation from the government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan.

Taraf did not identify the Chinese aircraft that flew in the exercise, which was first held in 2001 with Israel and the United States participating. The sources said this marked the first time that Chinese warplanes were allowed to participate in an exercise designed for NATO.

In 2009, Turkey banned Israel from participating in Anatolian Eagle. Later, the United States and several NATO allies decided to reduce participation in the exercise.

The sources said China and Turkey have sought to expand military cooperation. The two countries have been engaged in rocket production, including WS-1, a 302mm weapon with a range of 150 kilometers. Turkey's state-owned Roketsan renamed the rocket TR-300 Kasirga, later acquired by the Turkish Army.

Published on Oct 06, 2010
By Jorge Benitez
New questions about Turkey's secret military exercise with China: Atlantic Council of US

But the White House was irritated by the Turkish-Chinese aerial maneuvers. In addition, Washington has reportedly prevented Turkey from flying the US, Lockheed Martin made, advanced F-16s in its inventory during the training exercises with China, stemming from concerns that Beijing would have an access to US technology and collect intelligence to a certain extent. That explains why the Turkish Air Forces flew older US made F-4 fighters during the maneuvers and why the Chinese Air Force has reportedly used Russian made Su 27 as well as either Mig 29s or the older version of Mig 20s.

In fact if China wants to establish a military alliance against NATO in Asia, its contours are there for all to see. With a corridor over Pakistan (through PoK), Iran and Turkey, China comes all the way to the doorstep of Europe. That is the benefit that China enjoys when China remains in control of PoK. It can project power far and wide without stepping on Russia's feet (CARs). When it can show that it can project power, others who have a grudge with Israel and West, even allies like Turkey, would also change sides and follow.

The fact that PoK is under control of Pakistan-China Axis, means not just problems for India, but it also means that the strategic space and sway of NATO gets hurt, and where partners like Turkey had earlier few choices are all of a sudden being able to hold joint aerial exercises with America's strategic rival - PRC.

If USA and EU want Turkey to remain a part of the NATO alliance, they would have to ensure that PoK is sealed for China, so that there is no Chinese power projection beyond East Turkestan/Xinjiang. PoK must return to India.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 11 Oct 2010 07:33

prad wrote:^^^ it's only a matter of time before EU will be forced to stop their "we are superior than you" attitude toward the Turks. if they are successful in becoming a central energy transit hub between Central Asia, Russia, and the EU, the Europeans will have no option but to accommodate Turkey. Turkey has just started its efforts to become more involved in the Russian-Central Asian-EU energy triangle. it will be a complicated game though, with differing interests from all parties involved. ultimately, Turkey's closeness with Central Asia and it being the only alternative to complete Russian domination of the Energy geopolitics might force the EU's hand.

The Neo-Ottomanism of Turkey means that fewer and fewer Turks actually *want* to be part of the EU.

Many secular Turks like to think of themselves as Europeans, but have a problem with the EU's weakening of the Turkish military's political power, which they see as the main bulwark against Islamist power.

Ordinary Islamically oriented Turks do not share a common sense of identity with Europe, and are more interested in building something like the EU in the Middle East.

At the same time, both parties find continuing the quest for EU integration highly useful. Secular Turks want to anchor Turkey in Europe to counter the ME drift, while Islamists find the EU essential to outflanking the Army. Secular and Islamist alike they realise that healthy Turkey's enormous economic growth is highly dependent on a good relationship with the EU.

The balancing act will continue. Over the long term both Turkey and Russia will enter a kind of special relationship with the EU to keep pace with players like the US, China, India and Brazil. Turkey has labour and vital geography, Russia has energy and raw materials, and Europe has technology and capital. North Africa might get pulled in as well - there is growing interest in the potential for an EU-wide renewable 'supergrid', with N. Africa providing the solar component, in addition to all of the (increasingly Sub-Saharan) low cost labour available in places like Morocco and Tunisia.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 11 Oct 2010 16:42

>>North Africa might get pulled in as well

No doubt... Over the past couple of years the Turkish commercial ingress into North Africa (Libya in particular) has been fairly impressive.. Have seen it first hand. The European businesses are whining a bit about it.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 12 Oct 2010 00:39

JE Menon wrote:>>North Africa might get pulled in as well

No doubt... Over the past couple of years the Turkish commercial ingress into North Africa (Libya in particular) has been fairly impressive.. Have seen it first hand. The European businesses are whining a bit about it.

The Turks have a strong cost advantage in construction and engineering projects in particular, which is where a lot of the money is in a petro-driven boomtown like Libya which feels more like the Gulf than the rest of the Maghreb.

Most importantly they instinctively understand the local business culture in places like Syria, Algeria and Libya that are strongly statist, import-substitution oriented and have been a little bit isolated - Turkish businessmen grew up in an environment that wasn't that different. Plus its not *that* hard for them to learn the language.

In more Westernised states like Lebanon/Jordan/Morocco/Tunisia I think they're on a more even footing with EU companies.