Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

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Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Poll ended at 13 Apr 2010 22:28

(P1) Do whatever we are doing now, focus all energies on improving economy for next 10 years
16
14%
(P2-3) Create US jobs through defense purchases OR manufacturing investments to bring more senators into your fold
3
3%
(P4-5) Build on mellinia old cultural bonds with Asia OR Launch Aman Ki Asha every year
7
6%
(M1-2) Build expeditionary force for quick deployment overseas OR Operationalize Surya and keep the nuclear testing options open
14
12%
(M3-4) Build a strong Mil-Ind base and make Europe/America outsource defense production to India; Become a weapons provider(improve bada$$ image)
14
12%
(A1-2) Make ASEAN focus of the decade OR ally with Vietnam/Taiwan and provide arms (mirror China's support to Pakistan)
18
15%
(A3-4) Intensify ties with African and Latin countries OR Launch a new group ( SAARC - problem child + burma + laos + cambodia + vietnam + thailand)
10
8%
(T1) Make PoK (all of it) seem like hot iron and bring focus into issues there in international media
11
9%
(T2-3) Make Karakoram High hot and unsafe for any sensitive goods to be passed over it OR Support Baluch cause
15
13%
(T4-5) Make Pakistan spend more and more on defense OR Wean Japan off the 3.5 list (Only country that has little to gain from this engagement)
10
8%
 
Total votes: 118

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Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby a_kumar » 06 Apr 2010 22:28

Listed options are in four categories, Passive (P), Military Capability (M), Asia-specifc (A), TSP specific (T).
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In an earlier thread it turned out India's options as they exist right now are not to our liking. So think about what options would be desirable in 2020 and work back to now.

Each poster is allowed 5 votes and poll is open for 7 days. Poll did not accept the number of options I came across, so some choices are combined into one. Even if you like JUST ONE PART, vote for it anyway and we can break it in later threads.

If you have other options in mind, put your suggestions in the thread, and maybe we can have another round.

India has two critical challenges it is likely to encounter in next decade, one very obvious, other behind the scenes.
(1) Pakistan
- Pakistan continues to foment trouble against its neighbors, especially in India in every way it can.
- Pakistan continues to build nuclear arsenal at a faster pace
- US equips Pakistan will India-centric weaponry in lieu of Pakistan's leverage
- At least, gifts from US are a matter of record, even though India has little pull in these matters
- China equips Pakistan
- There is no record of this in public domain and it is likely increasingly sophisticated equipment will fall in Pakistan's hands.
- India has ZERO leverage on this transaction

(2) China
- Current 3rd largest economy, Shall be 2nd largest economy in 2020 and largest economy in 2030.
- India is currently 11th in standings, will likely be 6th in 2020 and 3rd by 2030.
- China will likely continue to play hot and cold on Arunachal, not to mention tighten grip on Aksai Chin
- Will be a big trading partner of Nepal
- Already has its ports sprinkled around in the India Ocean bring considerable area under its reach.
- Investing heavily in Afghanistan
- Investing heavily in Africa
- Has Australia in its pocket

Things to consider
- While US and China will likely staunchly be with Pakistan, Europe and Russia (barring UK) are getting unformtable
- US is tightly wound around Pakistan, but Europe/Russia have been cautious of Pakistan and to some extent China as well
- Latin America is unexplored
- Other neighbors of Pakistan and China have reason for concern due to their activities
- India has good potential to utilize soft power
Last edited by a_kumar on 07 Apr 2010 00:01, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Improving India's strategic options by 2020 (I)

Postby ramana » 06 Apr 2010 23:39

Please take ownership of the thread. If you find any off topic posts please report them for Admin action.

Thanks, ramana

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Re: Improving India's strategic options by 2020 (I)

Postby RamaY » 07 Apr 2010 00:01

Looks like first scientific poll on BR.

I voted for
(P1) Do whatever we are doing now, focus all energies on improving economy for next 10 years
(P4-5) Build on mellinia old cultural bonds with Asia OR Launch Aman Ki Asha every year
(M1-2) Build expeditionary force for quick deployment overseas OR Operationalize Surya and keep the nuclear testing options open
(A3-4) Intensify ties with African and Latin countries OR Launch a new group ( SAARC - problem child + burma + laos + cambodia + vietnam + thailand)
(T1) Make PoK (all of it) seem like hot iron and bring focus into issues there in international media


I would add one more option to your list, and I would categorize it as S1.
*** Redesign internal civic, industrial, and military industrial complex (and organizations) such that it is scalable and adaptive to the evolving strategic scenario.

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby Vikas » 07 Apr 2010 00:21

I voted for " Do whatever we are doing now, focus all energies on improving economy for next 10 years".
India must ensure that all its citizens are out of heart wrenching poverty before 2050. That is our fist duty towards the citizens of this country.
After it is my belief that once you have money, arrogance will automatically come and once we are arrogant we will start investing in offense rather than defense. After all
Khuda jab husan deta hai, nazakat aa hi jati hai

No poor country can have respectful leverage for a long run. NoKo or some of the African countries have tons of armaments but who gives a Fck and they have only nuisance value.
Having said that, I am not at all saying that we should ignore our defenses. After all Kuber had Lanka made of Gold but still Ravana could usurp it.

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby Klaus » 07 Apr 2010 00:59

Contrary to what the common way of thinking on these threads would go, I found the last option pretty appealing and I mean both options were equally good and I feel we have the capability to do BOTH at the same time. Contrary to common perception, it is also much easier and can be done without raising a hue and cry. This way TSP will lose one parent and its demise will also be accelerated.

Easily one of the most wise options!

Of course, the option regarding Surya and the option to test a massive shot in the near future should always be kept as a card up our sleeve. It may also be far more easier to instigate heat and trouble in the Aksai chin and Shaksam valley than in POK or Northern areas, just that the establishment needs to pick up momentum, once this momentum is achieved the covert activities will continue due to the force of inertia. JMT onlee.

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby a_kumar » 07 Apr 2010 01:47

Renamed the thread to clarify the objective. This poll is meant to discuss how to improve leverage, which in turn could offer better options in a decade.

Vishwamitra wrote:I would add one more option to your list, and I would categorize it as S1.
*** Redesign internal civic, industrial, and military industrial complex (and organizations) such that it is scalable and adaptive to the evolving strategic scenario.


One would think this is pretty fundamental.

However, in the scope of this poll, this can only be the next step. For example, lets say (M3-4), gets votes, then your point could be the first step in that direction.

What does "S" stand for?

VikasRaina wrote:I voted for " Do whatever we are doing now, focus all energies on improving economy for next 10 years".
India must ensure that all its citizens are out of heart wrenching poverty before 2050. That is our fist duty towards the citizens of this country.
After it is my belief that once you have money, arrogance will automatically come and once we are arrogant we will start investing in offense rather than defense. After all
Khuda jab husan deta hai, nazakat aa hi jati hai

No poor country can have respectful leverage for a long run.


Good point, but that opens whole different can of worms (corruption) and is probably a topic for another thread.

Assume that we are working on bringing most out of poverty, which gives us "needed arrogance", but that still may nor may not give the necessary leverage. So, what would be leverage?

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby RamaY » 07 Apr 2010 02:01

a_kumar wrote:
Vishwamitra wrote:I would add one more option to your list, and I would categorize it as S1.
*** Redesign internal civic, industrial, and military industrial complex (and organizations) such that it is scalable and adaptive to the evolving strategic scenario.


One would think this is pretty fundamental.

However, in the scope of this poll, this can only be the next step. For example, lets say (M3-4), gets votes, then your point could be the first step in that direction.

What does "S" stand for?


S for Structural.

IMHO Indian lacks the structural element to project power internally or externally. This refers to what Brihaspati-ji said in US-India thread recently.

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby Vikas » 07 Apr 2010 03:10

Talking of Leverage, First we need to define the kind of Leverage we are looking for.
Is it the Kind of leverage that Pakistan has over 3.5 friends because of its nuisance value and geographical location.
The other kind of leverage is what China has, which has caused so many countries to dump Taiwan in favor of China,
There is another kind of leverage that countries like Germany,France or Japan have due to their superior technological skills and past image. The image where these countries were construed to be developed, Strong and powerful in the past.

Unfortunately we don't have any such kind of leverage but there is another kind of leverage that most of the folks who travel outside India would recognize. That is the Leverage of being an Indian.
There is hardly a place in the world where you would not like to reveal your identity of being a an Indian and wont receive Friendly smiles in return. Most of the people across the world view Indians favorably and we ought to work on that Image of ours.

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby a_kumar » 07 Apr 2010 03:41

@Vishwamitra. Thanks for pointer. I see a poll idea somewhere there for another time?

VikasRaina wrote:(1) Is it the Kind of leverage that Pakistan has over 3.5 friends because of its nuisance value and geographical location.
(2) The other kind of leverage is what China has, which has caused so many countries to dump Taiwan in favor of China,
(3) There is another kind of leverage that countries like Germany,France or Japan have due to their superior technological skills and past image. The image where these countries were construed to be developed, Strong and powerful in the past.


Bulls eye!

VikasRaina wrote:Unfortunately we don't have any such kind of leverage but there is another kind of leverage that most of the folks who travel outside India would recognize.

While goodwill for India is an important foundation and something we should cultivate and treasure (something like P4), in real world it has its limitations. For example, it could be a great model for reaching out to Asia, but will fail in case of Pakistan.

India had a lot of goodwill in Afghanistan, but when it mattered, it gets trounced by Pakistan's leverage (geography/jihadi tap etc). Not saying that India has to necessarily adopt same methods, but India needs to find or build its own strengths.

What strengths in future can help us deal with these scenarios 10 years down the lane?

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby RamaY » 07 Apr 2010 03:59

VikasRaina wrote:There is hardly a place in the world where you would not like to reveal your identity of being a an Indian and wont receive Friendly smiles in return. Most of the people across the world view Indians favorably and we ought to work on that Image of ours.


There is lot of positive image for India around the world. Other civilizations like Indians (civilization), but do not respect or admire (materialistically) them. The problem is that that goodwill is not substantiated with power (influence) projection internally or externally. It requires -
1. Strong civic infrastructure
2. Cohesive Ideology (like Brihaspati-ji mentioned)
3. External Power Projection

JMT

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby negi » 07 Apr 2010 05:58

M1, M3, A1, A3 and T4 . Does M1 have low credit points/weight age ? :evil:

P1 by istelf is meaningless a government can only do much for economic growth , India grew post 90s as it opened up and forged new ties , A1 and A3 will help us stimulate such growth we cannot sit in isolation and and become an economic powerhouse .

We in India need to view military sector from economic and business point of view as well , military equipment and their upgrades is an attractive sector and with very few players we need to jump into it big time and use our cost advantage over the west and Unkil to sell quality products ALH deal should serve as a nice template for such stuff .

Deploying and demonstrating an ICBM capable of delivering multiple warheads is another key factor which will ensure India will have a right and authority to poke nose in global disputes just as some bigots do in our neighborhood , our voice will have more credibility and value on issues like nuclear proliferation and even IRAN i.e. Unkil will have all the more reason to have India on its side on issues where it needs to develop global consensus we shall then extract our pound of flesh from Unkil in form of favorable trade ties or cooperation in niche areas (akin to the Chipanda)

T-4 will give a clear indication to Lawhore and its pimps that we mean business here once M1, M3 , A1 and A3 are achieved Japan or even Unkil will take our concerns seriously else even their interests shall take a hit in the long run .

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby Deans » 07 Apr 2010 09:15

India will have to overcome internal weaknesses if it has to signfiicantly increase its leaverage by 2020.
I've listed what I think are the the top 5 challenges with some initiatives.

1. Naxalite /Secessionist Menace.
1.1 Develop the `lagging' states (replicate Bihar - which has grown by 11% y.o.y in recent years).
1.2 Revamp of internal security and a tougher approach to tackling Naxals.

2. Water and food security.
2.1 Revisit IWT ?
2.2 More of the Gujarat model (increased water availability coupled with higher agricultural productivity).

3. A more effective government.
3.1 The top 2 parties (Cong & BJP) become stronger at the expense of regional / 1 man outfits/commies, which
would reduce the size of coaliations and the bargaining power of smalelr parties.
3.2 Reduced role of Govt in the daily life of people (less corruption), through privatisation, use of IT and enabling
legislation like RTI.

4. Energy security. (self explanatory)

5. Remove those bottlenecks that prevent us from achieving 10%+ growth (which will increase GDP by 150% in 2020)
Its not the obvious things like Infrastructure etc, but removing outdated legislation, barriers to Inter-state trade etc.

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby archan » 07 Apr 2010 09:21

James Cockburn / Umrao Das / John Snow has been permanently banned from BRF. Please let us know if you find this person register with any other IDs in the future.

PS: all other unnecessary pyar mohabbat is heading to trash. Amber G, negi et al. please show some thread discipline.

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby shiv » 07 Apr 2010 09:23

Let me post my views on "leverage" - very quickly
The list and scoring cannot be perfect, and many will score fractions of points, but here's a start in expressing my line of thought

1) Economic leverage

a) Positive economic leverage
  • Having a huge internal market for imports (+1 point)
  • Production of items that everyone else wants (fighter planes/consumer goods/oil & gas) (+1 point)

b) Negative economic leverage
  • Ability to choke off/restrict supplies of goods to a market ("sanctions") (+1 point)

2) Military leverage

a) Positive military leverage
  • The ability to intervene militarily to coerce events to have a positive impact on one's own country (+1 point)
  • The ability to provide military cover for another country in exchange for goods, money or other services (+1 point)

b) Negative military leverage
  • Outsourcing of one's own military requirements to a foreign supplier (-1)
  • Outsourcing of one's own military requirements to a foreign military force (-1)

3) Sociopolitical leverage

a) Positive sociopolitical leverage
  • Having an educated peaceful population that can help production or provides services (+1)
  • The country is a net attractor of migrants (+1)

b) Negative sociopolitical leverage
  • Having a violent, restive population (-1)
  • Being a net exporter of migrants/refugees (-1)

This gives a basis for scoring nations. In fact I created the list first and haven't scored anyone. Will give it a try to see who scores what and see if I can refine the list.

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby shiv » 07 Apr 2010 09:35

Using my own rules and points system

US gets 6
Pakistan gets 0
India gets 2
Japan gets 2
China gets about 3, I think
KSA gets 2
Russia gets 4 or 5 I guess

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby Sanku » 07 Apr 2010 11:49

M1, M3, A1, T2 and T4

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby a_kumar » 07 Apr 2010 12:17

@Dean and Vishwamitra
1. Strong civic infrastructure
2. Cohesive Ideology (like Brihaspati-ji mentioned)
3. External Power Projection


There is no argument against what you suggest. Ideally, setting internal house right would be the first step. However, I believe that in Indian context, "resistance to changing the system internally" is almost impossible to overcome by itself. It has to be unhinged through other means first. And we cannot hold up everything else waiting for that day. And hopefully, in doing so, we will find an unconventional means to unhinge the system.

I am beginning to accept a rule of thumb : Anything that impinges or affects Politicians/Bureaucrat's "bread and butter" has little chance of success in a feasible amount of time. The moment we make civic infrastructure, cohesion and effective government as basis for anything, we might as well throw the towel right away or wait till hell freezes over.

This was vaguely in the back of my mind, but when I look back at the poll options, almost all pass the rule of thumb!

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby Pratyush » 07 Apr 2010 13:09

I voted for P1,M3-4,T4-5,


The only thing I as an Indian care for is the improvement in the lot of out people. Become self sufficient in terms of defense supplies even if we don't export the armaments to EU or any body in particular. As it removes any sort of influence on India of an external power.

Now as to TSP. It must be bled white as the FSU was in an arms race. To do that India must have an economy & military that makes every one quake in there boots when we a good hard look at them.

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby RamaY » 07 Apr 2010 18:47

Deans wrote:India will have to overcome internal weaknesses if it has to signfiicantly increase its leaverage by 2020.
I've listed what I think are the the top 5 challenges with some initiatives.

1. Naxalite /Secessionist Menace.
1.1 Develop the `lagging' states (replicate Bihar - which has grown by 11% y.o.y in recent years).
1.2 Revamp of internal security and a tougher approach to tackling Naxals.

2. Water and food security.
2.1 Revisit IWT ?
2.2 More of the Gujarat model (increased water availability coupled with higher agricultural productivity).

3. A more effective government.
3.1 The top 2 parties (Cong & BJP) become stronger at the expense of regional / 1 man outfits/commies, which
would reduce the size of coaliations and the bargaining power of smalelr parties.
3.2 Reduced role of Govt in the daily life of people (less corruption), through privatisation, use of IT and enabling
legislation like RTI.

4. Energy security. (self explanatory)

5. Remove those bottlenecks that prevent us from achieving 10%+ growth (which will increase GDP by 150% in 2020)
Its not the obvious things like Infrastructure etc, but removing outdated legislation, barriers to Inter-state trade etc.


Deans,

These are the points that are close to my heart.

That is why I suggested the additional option S1 - Structural reforms required to support Indian's leverage.

Please visit "alternative budget scenarios for India" thread in GD forum

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby RamaY » 07 Apr 2010 18:56

a_kumar wrote:I am beginning to accept a rule of thumb : Anything that impinges or affects Politicians/Bureaucrat's "bread and butter" has little chance of success in a feasible amount of time. The moment we make civic infrastructure, cohesion and effective government as basis for anything, we might as well throw the towel right away or wait till hell freezes over.


You might be right about your rule of thumb, but this is a precondition to achieve anything you have mentioned.

Lack of civic infrastructure, internal cohesion, and structural reforms will make progress in other areas unreliable and unsustainable.

That said, I agree with you that it is humongous task, something that needs to be done one piece at a time. The good thing is that it is being attempted and met with success in some pockets of our society (Akshaya Patra is one such idea IMO - it brought scale, technology, project management to one such focus area). This entrepreneurial approach towards civic infrastructure in pockets of our society can be the first step in the process. But the long-term solution is to instill these structural changes in our governance model itself.

JMT.

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby a_kumar » 08 Apr 2010 01:36

shiv wrote:Using my own rules and points system
US gets 6
Pakistan gets 0
India gets 2
Japan gets 2
China gets about 3, I think
KSA gets 2
Russia gets 4 or 5 I guess


Shiv ji, I mostly agree with your chart and I was trying to reconcile how Pakistan gets 0, while all empirical data proves otherwise.

Its got to be weight (already on your radar) and context (ie. geographical area of focus). While some criteria are global in nature, others are specific to each region. So, if we extend the above as a spreadsheet horizontally to make it 2D matrix (adding one column for each country of interest) that would be interesting. In Afghanistan column, Pakistan would obviously have high marks if weight is considered. That could be a good way to quantify leverage.

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Re: Improving India's Leverage by 2020 (I)

Postby shiv » 08 Apr 2010 06:03

a_kumar wrote:
shiv wrote:Using my own rules and points system
US gets 6
Pakistan gets 0
India gets 2
Japan gets 2
China gets about 3, I think
KSA gets 2
Russia gets 4 or 5 I guess


Shiv ji, I mostly agree with your chart and I was trying to reconcile how Pakistan gets 0, while all.

Pakistan scores
    Having a huge internal market for imports (+1 point)
    Ability to choke off/restrict supplies of goods to a market ("sanctions") (+1 point)
    The ability to intervene militarily to coerce events to have a positive impact on one's own country (+1 point)
    The ability to provide military cover for another country in exchange for goods, money or other services (+1 point)

    Outsourcing of one's own military requirements to a foreign supplier (-1)
    Outsourcing of one's own military requirements to a foreign military force (-1)
    Having a violent, restive population (-1)
    Being a net exporter of migrants/refugees (-1)

Total 0


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