SriJoy wrote:Whats stopping Pakistan from going on a nuke-spree to Kabul, Tehran, Delhi, Mumbai, etc ? Pakistan doesn't care about its own people, its all about the land-owning & military elites. If they face a coalition war, which they will certainly lose, they have then nothing left to lose- hence, nuclear war.
Until we can have an effective counter to nuclear ballistic missiles, i don't see how we can dismember Pakistan without taking massive nuclear losses ourselves.
destruction of lands grabbed in the land of punjab and whatever pakistan is today. Most likely they would try to cut deals to get asylum in western capitals and be part of paki elite waiting to return when the time is ripe or retain their holdings in post pakistan power games.
The point I am making is we must recognize that for the long term benefit of India, there will be huge losses and if we are unwilling to take them, then we should simply forget the dream of even being a regional power (forget about the Indian superpower).
OT: Seat on high table/Superpower status is not granted or bequeathed, it is earned, earned at a cost. US/UK/Russia paid for it in WW2 by bearing the brunt of Germans (Russia loss over 10% of its population), stabilizing Europe, Financing other wars. We did not follow through the '71 war and just got content by solving the problem of years that went by and not of that day or of future.
I have a strong suspicion that majority of their Nukes are tactical or low yield, given their lack of mastery on Pu based weapons.
For the sake of argument, even if Pakis decide to Nuke all three, the questions that come up then are
1. do they have enough nukes and more importantly delivery mechanisms to nuke all three, especially Umma Bro: Iran?
2. What will they nuke in Afghanistan? Tora Bora? Jalalabad, Kabul?
3. Will china be an onlooker in the great game/fight of the subcontinent, in her own backyard and with her biggest munna? if they throw it in water that means all the money and their H&D is flushed down.
4. What will be the role of US. We are yet to see the big shift in US towards pakistan. Soldiers who fought in Afghanistan, when they reach pentagon (if some of them haven't already), will be itching for a payback.
Given the current situation, India should start separate the Chabahar port and the highway separate from its US relationship and link it with a presence in Afghanistan. Just like last time, only Indians and no outside power can bring peace and order in Afghanistan.