X-Posting from Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch ThreadFreedom to America Solution
There are many suggestions doing the rounds as to what USA should do in AfPak - the Blackwill Solution, the Biden Solution, etc. From the Indian PoV, what India would like is either
- America increases the radicalization of Pakistan to such an extent that the Pakistani Taliban and the Pakistani Army get into a good fight, keeping the Jihadis at home and not in Kashmir.
- America gets into a direct war with the Pakistanis finishing off Pakistani Army for good.
As long as America sits in Afghanistan, this possibility is still open. So India should make use of it. The question is how?
America needs Pakistani cooperation in their GWOT, but they are not getting it. Instead they are getting Pakistanis training and funding the Afghan Taliban to take on American forces in Afghanistan. America wants to retaliate against the sanctuaries in Pakistan but cannot, because of American dependence on supply lines through Pakistan. So America needs to free itself of dependence on Pakistan for land access to Afghanistan.
Here is the deal. India helps America free itself of the dependence on Pakistan for supplies. How?
USA allows India a free hand to trade and deal with Iran. India can build an oil refinery in Iran and in Kazakhstan, and supply petroleum products to Central Asia and Afghanistan. USA builds big gasoline and diesel storage facilities in Northern Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, so that at any given time, it is not dependent on Pakistan. India can supply refined petroleum products to these facilities.
Besides that USA funds construction of railroads and highways in the region with American money, and India does the building. We build a railroad networking Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan in Indian Broad Gauge (1,676 mm). If the Europeans are willing to transfer and give technology to India for high-speed railway, then India could do that in that way also.
Also India helps build the infrastructure for transporting stuff into Afghanistan through the Western route - Turkey (or Greece, Bulgaria, Black Sea), Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan (or Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan), Afghanistan. NATO can also use the railroad through Russia.
By allowing India to trade with Iran, India uses the Chahbahar Port and the Zaranj-Delaram Highway to transport non-military material to USA in Indian Trucks plying in Iran.
Why would Iran cooperate? Well it would give them a lifeline if there is a refinery working in Iran. They too get refined petroleum products. Secondly, India and Iran can agree that even though America should not stay in the region for long, it is important that America weakens the Taliban and Pakistan before leaving. There both have similar opinions.
If America becomes independent of Pakistan, America would be far more willing to hit the Haqqani Network and the Quetta Shura within Pakistan, besides other targets within Pakistan. That would drive America into a clash with the Pakistani Army, only the next time America will not back off and apologize for any drone strikes but only increase them. Should Pakistan ever retaliate, it would mean an all out war and America would finish off the Pakistani Army. I know there are those who don't believe that America would be willing to finish off their rent-boy, but in the heat of losses, one cannot discount out an escalation. Pakistanis tend to brag and threaten more than they can deliver, and may be America calls Pakistan's bluff.
The thing is India can spread her wings more into Central Asia at a time when China is going in there big time, we can keep our relationships with both USA and Iran, and we can get America to destroy TSPA, giving us the possibility to take PoK more easily and deal with a broken up Pakistan.
India needs to get into the game. We have lost all means to influence the going ons in a region very important to us. This could be one way to do that. When Obama comes a calling, may be India can offer some advice, on how to make the American Forces independent of Pakistani pressures.