RajeshA wrote:What broke their back was not the war (invasion) but the occupation.
Yeah but it takes time to set up govt, train and all that - which costs money,. As soon as the economy couldnt sustain the expenditure on MIC - they are cutting the budget now by $400bn over next 5 years.
But Hafiz Saeed roams free, and Lakhvi gets the best Biryani. If we were up to these things there, they should have been taken out long time ago.
Yeah so was the leader of Hamas - Sheikh Yassin until after all those years they decided to drop a bomb on him. He was roaming in a wheelchair openly going out spewing his BS. Even Nasrallah - the Israeli's knew where he was, same with Arafat in the intifada days.
In this case, Saeed and lakhvi are just puppets - its a waste of time taking them out and they'll go on a propaganda overdrive and recruit more people. Someone else will replace him. It doesn't end it. Instead I'd rather hit the people pulling the strings.
But having said all this we are keeping our hands clean for now - they are suffering a lot and taking big blows (afghans, US and Omani's doing their bit) and us adding to that won't change much. We want to bury the hatchet forever and encourage them to do business instead of fight war.
I believe you are underestimating how terror affects the people in India. I don't mean the trauma. I am talking about long term disenchantment with own state and own people. It generates a certain disgust in individuals that the state does not care about their lives. One starts feeling a loss of sense of security one gets in a group. The nation, the group ceases to be the group for which then one oneself is willing to sacrifice one's life. In the end, it does not just affect the common people but our security forces too, their morale.
All this is not directly quantifiable, but it leads to a withering of national feeling.
Maybe there is a case here and I really feel GoI natsec PR is apalling. No one understands their strategy (partly because the media is too busy and lacks the understanding - also i dont think it sells for newspapers) - this was pointed out to the NSA too in the recent IDSA conference. Terror is an attempt to break the will of the people, however I have not seen it in my personal interactions with people. I still see kids who say they want to join the forces, speak to members of the security establishment who are proud of their work. But perhaps discussing strategy in a more public fashion will help - but we don't have ego's and as you quite rightly pointed out there is no emotional decisions here - everything is cold decisions. imo i think thats a good thing..
In some way the other needs to pay and this payment we need to extort visibly. Even if it were behind the scenes, all this taking down of Indian enemies does not do one bit of good for the national psyche.
I have always said the covert option is the best - so I completely agree with you. But I know that they are trying to seriously convince TSP to stop war and do business instead. So let them try this "no war agreement" and aman-ki-asha.
One may wave this aspect off as an emotional response where one needs to be thinking straight, but these "cold calculations" ignore the needs of the national psyche at one's peril. The feeling of abandonment trickles down to the local level.
I dont think its a big enough issue yet - I think if it was an issue, I don't think people would vote INC of all groups.
The Paki cannot match us, either economically or militarily. That is well-known. But it is never a question of comparison. I, Indian, am rich and you're dirt poor, you Paki! From such a comparison all one gets is a little ego boost, and nothing more. The question is always, does the Paki pose a civilizational threat to us, and that remains.
Boss, re-read this paragraph. The fact that we continue to take broad strides economically and the average citizen has benefited in the last 10 years without war despite all sorts of provocation by TSP shows that they are not an existential threat at all. Just a little dot and thats all they will be. We don't care about what pak does and is doing.
Be it through nuclear weapons, or be it through demographic expansion of Islam in the Indian Subcontinent. So the Paki of today cannot really measure up to us, but two generations down the line, the chaos he produced can still overwhelm us. And the Islamic core would have succeeded in taking down India.
I really beg to differ on TSP. Demographic expansion of islam is a different issue.
By harping on the needs of the economy we are only kicking down the can to the next generations of Indians. Can't we build our economy while taking down this pest?
You have to take away resources from somewhere else to pay for it and then once you take them down... then what? Still a drain on our pockets coz someone has to pay to fix it once its totally broken.
This is akin to a cancer patient who does not want to go to treatment, because that would mean he would have to take day off from work and this could cause him loss of income.
I dont see it as starkly as you do. I think opportunities will present itself. Look at Bangladesh now - there is a pro indian govt who is providing us with a lot of security support - they are about to say no religion in politics and ban the jamaat. We can't just wave a wand and make extremist islam disappear. It takes time to eradicate.
In TSP we missed an opportunity last year to back a coup.
Islamic core can thrive in chaos like Somalia and they can thrive in a country like Malaysia, or Saudia Arabia. Economics is not the determinant here. The Paki people are just firewood for the Islamic core.
Yup - but don't underestimate economics - it makes a big difference.
I don't think talking to PRC really helps. If we want to start solving the problem, then we should go to the Saudis and talk about Iranian Balochistan
and let the Saudis bring USA on board. I put up a series of posts on this scenario.
Yeah but they are complaining to us about TSP because TSP is giving them beatings in Xinjiang! So they are slightly receptive to have dialogue - but I emphasise only slightly.