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Managing Pakistan's failure

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Yogi_G
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Yogi_G » 08 Feb 2013 16:37

RajeshA wrote:
lakshmikanth wrote:We need to consider the Iranian equation (and thus the US-Iran and Iran-Sunni equation as well) for developing a right strategy, since an independent Balochistan would end up being a war ground for Bakis, US and Iranians for influence and control.

Not unless Balochistan through a Instrument of Accession joins the Union of India, giving it all the freedoms and rights available to any other state and people in India.


Whats the guarantee that they will not do a Bangladesh on us? Once a Paki, always a Paki.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 08 Feb 2013 16:39

Iranian Baluchestan Front

What are the imperatives of various countries to see a Western Balochistan freed from Iranian rule?

Saudi Arabia

  1. Iran is Saudi Arabia's "mortal enemy". That is what the House of Saud believes. There is deep animosity towards the Persians. So if in any way, Iran becomes weaker, it would be highly welcomed in Saudi Arabia.

  2. Saudis do fear that when Iran has a nuclear weapon it would be able to blackmail the Gulf countries. Imagine that Iran decides to attack Saudi Arabia and free the Shias in Al Ahsa region in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. Eastern Province where most of the Shias live is also the biggest petroleum producing region in Saudi Arabia. In fact, it is possible that Iran can start a Shia Spring there, sends in the military and threatens Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons as well as any other country which come to their help. So they do want to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon in any which way.

  3. As of now, Saudi Arabia shares cultural hegemony over Pakistan. Sure, the Taliban are on the advance, but much of the elite looks up to Iran for their cultural moorings. If Iran weakens, then Saudis can be assured of cultural victory in Pakistan, or so they would think.

  4. There is also a chance that Pakistan would decide to reach a strategic alliance with Iran with the aim of sealing up Central Asia, something I have spoken of earlier. This strategy works only as long as Pakistan and Iran are the only two countries enabling access to Central Asia from the Indian Ocean. If Western Balochistan is free, an alliance between Iran and Pakistan with this motive becomes useless.

  5. If the House of Saud desires to have Indian protection in the future, then the presence of Indian Navy nearby, say in Western Balochistan, would be very helpful.

  6. Perhaps one important reason, the Saudis may be keen on India moving in into Western Baluchestan may be because it would set up India as another power in the region with which Iran would be enemies with, since India would be holding territory which was previously Iranian.

Qatar

  1. Qatar would be able to sell Gas to India directly through a pipeline as West Balochistan over the Straits of Hormuz would be India.

  2. The region can get more prosperity with India close by and an active participant in the Persian Gulf Community.

Turkey

  1. Turkey is a Sunni country and wants to have a similar leadership role it had during the Ottomans. That may be an unrealistic desire, but it is still there. As a leading Sunni country, one job description is of course to stop Shi'ite expansion.

  2. Turkey at the moment does not have contiguous land access to the Turkic Central Asia. There is Armenia, Georgia and Iran between Turkey and the next Turkic country - Azerbaijan, from where there is then access to other Central Asian Turkic countries - Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kirghizstan over the Caspian Sea. If South Azerbaijan, which happens to be in Iran comes free and joins up with Republic of Azerbaijan, Turkey gets unhindered access to Central Asia, unhindered in the sense that other power brokers - Iran, Russia and even USA do not get a veto on this access. Liberation of South Azerbaijan can come only in a larger unraveling of Iran, where its regions with minorities break off - Khuzestan, Kurdistan AND Western Balochistan.

  3. If Iran becomes weak, Turkey becomes stronger. The Turks, the Arabs and the Persians are in a competition with each for the leadership of the Ummah as the "3 Master Muslim Races". A weakened Persia means that Persians cannot really be in the running for leadership. Then it becomes a two horse race, with Turkey getting an edge because Persians and Arabs cannot become allies leaving the Persians to side with Turkey.

Israel

  1. The other country terrified of the Iranian nuclear bomb is Israel. They know that just striking Iran from the sky would only delay the Iranian nuke by a couple of years and not more. Iran would also be able to ride out the sanctions. The only way to stop Iran is to cripple it for good - by breaking it up.

Afghanistan

  1. Afghanistan is going to the dogs, for that is what the Paki ISI is, and basically Pakis have checkmated every one else in Afghanistan through supply route control and pure terrorist violence. Iran is also a spent force in Afghanistan. In fact, Iranians cannot even come to the aid of Shias being massacred in Afghanistan and Pakistan. USA is willing to give the Pakis the free hand and UK is chaperoning the surrender of NATO in Afghanistan, hoping that the Pakis would give them a promise of not exporting all too many Jihadi terrorists to their shores. So the Taliban is coming back and nobody is going to stop them this time. This time the Taliban would even be having recognition is the West and not be limited to Saudi Arabia, UAE and Pakistan. Taliban are nothing but Pakistan's proxy. So Afghanistan is going under Pakistani rule. And if doesn't suit the Afghans, tough luck, they can go kill themselves for nothing.

  2. India can help Afghanistan but we do not have a route to Afghanistan. Nobody would be happier than Afghanistan, if India can get a route to Afghanistan through Western Balochistan. Then the Afghans have a fighting chance to pushing back the Taliban, at least from the non-Pushtun areas.

Central Asian Republics

  1. Central Asian Republics know that when Taliban take over Afghanistan, they are the next in line for Islamist terror. Tajikistan, Uzebekistan and even Kirghizstan are particularly vulnerable. They would welcome an Indian presence which stops the spread of Talibanism northwards. Iran cannot do it. NATO is exhausted. Russia has itself started giving in to the Chechens.

  2. Also the Central Asian Republics look like prisoners of either Russia or China. These are the only two countries they can really sell the valuable minerals and energy to or through. Getting direct access to the Indian Ocean through an India-stabilized Western Afghanistan and India-integrated Western Balochistan would open up the world markets for the Central Asian region.

Russia

  1. Russia has many concerns related to what happens in Central Asia. It forms the vulnerable belly for Russia. If Islamist expansion starts in earnest again in Afghanistan, Russia would have to send its forces to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to halt the menace. Russia would get again embroiled in the southern wars which took place between 1991-2001.

  2. Russia is also concerned with all the drugs that come that way, so if India can start economic activity in Afghanistan, that would certainly help Russia.

  3. Also Russia would be able to finally sell its Oil & Gas through pipelines to the Indian market. It would not have to transport these through tankers passing through the Pacific, through Southeast Asia and finally to India. So besides Europe and China, Russia gets a third big market for its minerals, which can be transported through India-integrated Western Balochistan.

USA & NATO

  1. What does USA really expect post 2014, when it leaves the region or leaves a smaller presence in the region - that Islamic terrorism would stop? What stops everything from reverting back to how it was pre-9/11? Sure they will keep some counter-terrorism forces in Afghanistan, but they would really be again at the mercy of Pakistan, a very untrustworthy "ally". If USA wants to keep their forces there, what they do need is a reliable supply line. An India-integrated Western Balochistan can provide USA with such a supply line. In fact India can provide much more - we can provide all the logistics to and from Afghanistan. India can help setup a solid infrastructure of roads and railroads between Afghanistan and the Indian Ocean, passing through India-integrated Western Balochistan.

  2. India can help the USA by simply helping Afghanistan build a stabler society, and thus stopping another sanctuary for Islamic terrorism from taking root again there.

  3. India-integrated Western Balochistan can help the West in trading with Central Asia, and thus competing with Russia and China there.

  4. If USA wants to have some leverage over China, then American presence in Central Asia can be helpful. First it would not leave the region totally at the mercy of Chinese business, and secondly Americans may wish to support Uyghur self-determination in the future.

  5. If the West feels under pressure from Islamist terrorism and extremism, then it is because countries like Pakistan have been given a free reign to export these to them. With India forming a cordon around Pakistan, mainly through an Indian presence in Western Balochistan and by extension in Afghanistan, the danger to the West would subside.
Last edited by RajeshA on 08 Feb 2013 18:12, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 08 Feb 2013 16:46

Yogi_G wrote:
lakshmikanth wrote:We need to consider the Iranian equation (and thus the US-Iran and Iran-Sunni equation as well) for developing a right strategy, since an independent Balochistan would end up being a war ground for Bakis, US and Iranians for influence and control.
RajeshA wrote:Not unless Balochistan through a Instrument of Accession joins the Union of India, giving it all the freedoms and rights available to any other state and people in India.

Whats the guarantee that they will not do a Bangladesh on us? Once a Paki, always a Paki.


Is Bangladesh under pressure from any neighbor trying to take over its territory or trying to destabilize its territory through exporting revolutions there?

As it is not, Bangladesh could afford to go its independent way, especially with such a big population.

Those conditions are not available to the Balochis. Either they join a benign India, or they would again be used as a football by Pakjabis, Pushtun, Persians, Arabs, British, etc, none of whom have given the Balochis any dignity or rights over their resources and land. They have in fact actively worked to keep the Balochis controllable and thus partitioned into 3 countries.

In Iran the number of Balochis is 1,557,000 according to Wiki, who are spread over a huge land area. That many should be manageable, No?

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Supratik » 08 Feb 2013 21:11

I don't see a free Balochistan joining India which is OK. Our cultural interests extend only upto Hinglaj. An independent Balochistan with wide ranging economic and military engagement with India and free movement of people should be the goal. I think once Pak breaks along the North-South axis the Pakjabis and Sindhis will move towards India. Remember that the Punjabis and Sindhis were late entrants in the Pakistan movement. The main culprits were the UP< Bihar and Gujrati-Mumbai financiers and in Bengal. Sindh is likely to see further partition of Mohajirs. We should not touch the Mohajirs even with a barge pole and isolate them in a small territory around Karachi-Hyderabad which they can call Pakistan.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 08 Feb 2013 21:22

Supratik ji,

Why do you think Pakistan would break along the North-South axis? Why don't you think that Pakistan would simply Islamize and Islamize and Islamize ever more? Sure the Kabila would lose some ground, but that is ground they can win back anytime, just like Taliban were driven out of Afghanistan, but they came back.

The stories about Pakistan breaking up have been making the rounds since before even its creation, and it is still there - rock solid. Everybody has been talking about "Pakistan on the brink", "Pakistan at crossroads", "Pakistan, a failed state", etc. and predicting that it would break up in 6 months time.

I too have been a long believer in the upcoming demise of Pakistan, but I have had to revise my earlier confidence. It is not happening, except by external force, and by acceptance of world powers stronger than India, whoever they may be at any given time.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 08 Feb 2013 21:37

RajeshA, The Ottomans were the new Caliphate and they also appeared monolith till Lawrence and a generation of Arabists in England figured out the fault lines and struck during WWI. Now the remnants of Ottoman Turkey and all are organized on nationalities. TSP is also a manufactured Islamic state and the schisms are there being papered over by brute force of the Kabila and US dogma of 'stability' which is keep their goons in charge.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 08 Feb 2013 21:52

ramana wrote:RajeshA, The Ottomans were the new Caliphate and they also appeared monolith till Lawrence and a generation of Arabists in England figured out the fault lines and struck during WWI. Now the remnants of Ottoman Turkey and all are organized on nationalities. TSP is also a manufactured Islamic state and the schisms are there being papered over by brute force of the Kabila and US dogma of 'stability' which is keep their goons in charge.

ramana garu,

Of course "US dogma of 'stability'" refers to only the stability of their interests, as well as to stability of legacy thinking about their interests in the corridors of power in USA.

However I do think that Islam is a cultural and ethnic identity destroying force, and it works especially well in an environment where Kafirs are around - West, India, etc. In Pakistan, this unifying ideology slowed down a bit, since all Kafirs were gone or converted with Pakistan 97% Muslim. So now the unifying force, and the cultural-ethnic identity destroying force being used is not just Islam but a certain sect of Islam - Wahabbandi. So the melting pot would keep on churning until more homogeneity is achieved. From the perspective of sects, Pakistan is still a land full of multiple religions, so the Islamic grinder can work on some more - on the Ahmadiyyas, on the Shia, on the Barelvis. This process can continue until each and every man does not have 10 cm of beard and wears a salwar 3 cm above his ankles.

The Kabila has of course failed to curtail Baloch identity, just as it failed earlier in Bangladesh, but when the Greener Kabila, the Talibanized Kabila takes over, the grinder may reach the Baloch as well.

So brute force may one day not just paper over the schisms but can destroy them as well one day - depending on the greenery in the ideology.

I am not so hopeful anymore that "letting them stew in their own juice" suffices as a strategy. External intervention is necessary, IMHO!

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Supratik » 08 Feb 2013 22:11

Rajesh, Ramana answered you. I think they have lost the Baloch mentally. The Pashtuns are ambiguous. As long as US remains invested in maintaining Pakistan it will somehow manage to survive. But I don't think they have been able to make a nation out of Pakistan. How much more Islam can they use that they already have not used. So when the US is unable or unwilling to keep Pakistan intact you will see centrifugal forces taking over. That may happen in 5, 50 or 500 years - hard to tell. Pak will split along the North-South axis because the Baloch want to get out and the Taliban want their own version of Islam.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 08 Feb 2013 22:31

Supratik wrote:Rajesh, Ramana answered you. I think they have lost the Baloch mentally. The Pashtuns are ambiguous. As long as US remains invested in maintaining Pakistan it will somehow manage to survive. But I don't think they have been able to make a nation out of Pakistan. How much more Islam can they use that they already have not used. So when the US is unable or unwilling to keep Pakistan intact you will see centrifugal forces taking over. That may happen in 5, 50 or 500 years - hard to tell. Pak will split along the North-South axis because the Baloch want to get out and the Taliban want their own version of Islam.


Taliban want their own version of Islam, true, but who is really putting up the fight against their version of Islam which is based strongly on coercion? Nobody! TSPA has allowed its soldiers to become Talibanized in increasing numbers. So TSPA would one day in fact become Talibanized completely, with only the CoAS, as the sole TSPA-Taliban shaving off his beard in order to talk to USA.

Taliban is how Pakistan would look in another 30-40 years time.

As for Baloch, they have been able to keep back Pakistani Army by making a stand that they are not Pakistanis. Can the Baloch continue their resistance against Talibanized Pakistan as well? Can they say that they are not Muslim? Hardly!

So if everything goes this way, even the Baloch would crack in 30 years time and become Talibanized Pakistanis in 50 years.

So there will be no North-South cleavage of Pakistan. It will become one monotonously dark-green country with a Ghilzai at the helm and at war with India.

The TSPA version of Islam was not brutal enough. The Taliban version is much more terrifying and thus much more effective.

In any case, "stewing in its own juices" is a useless strategy, because after stewing, the soup would simply get another poisonous flavor and start boiling over into the neighborhood!

The USA does not live in the neighborhood. India does!

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 08 Feb 2013 23:09

Supratik wrote:I don't see a free Balochistan joining India which is OK. Our cultural interests extend only upto Hinglaj.


As I mentioned earlier, Bandar Abbas alias Gemeron, which lies to the West of Greater Baluchistan was a Hindu Port City, ruled by a Hindu Ruler Maharaja Derbar Raja as late as 630 CE.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Supratik » 08 Feb 2013 23:11

If Pak comes under the Taliban entirely then the crap is going to hit the roof. Both the US and India will be forced to act. The current ambiguity will end. So it may have unintended consequences for Pakistan which may actually bring it down. More importantly the Pashtuns are ambiguous viz-a-viz Pak. The nationalists would want to get out but haven't tried hard, the Pashtuns outside their land and in the army want to stay with Pakistan while the Taliban want their version of Islam but have shown no inclination to break-off. However, if the Taliban would like to setup their own state in the NW then you will see centrifugal forces taking over. I don't think Pak can handle full-fledged insurgencies in both Baloch and Pashtun areas. So far the Taliban have a love-hate relationship with Pak army. They want the Americans out, often collaborate with the ISI and want to setup a Talibani state over whole of Pak. If at some point in future they decide to setup a Talibani state in the NW then Pak will be in deep trouble.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Supratik » 08 Feb 2013 23:13

RajeshA wrote:
As I mentioned earlier, Bandar Abbas alias Gemeron, which lies to the West of Greater Baluchistan was a Hindu Port City, ruled by a Hindu Ruler Maharaja Derbar Raja as late as 630 CE.



Makran actually had a Sun temple which was destroyed by the Arabs. But that is distant past.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 08 Feb 2013 23:31

Supratik wrote:If Pak comes under the Taliban entirely then the crap is going to hit the roof. Both the US and India will be forced to act. The current ambiguity will end. So it may have unintended consequences for Pakistan which may actually bring it down. More importantly the Pashtuns are ambiguous viz-a-viz Pak. The nationalists would want to get out but haven't tried hard, the Pashtuns outside their land and in the army want to stay with Pakistan while the Taliban want their version of Islam but have shown no inclination to break-off. However, if the Taliban would like to setup their own state in the NW then you will see centrifugal forces taking over. I don't think Pak can handle full-fledged insurgencies in both Baloch and Pashtun areas. So far the Taliban have a love-hate relationship with Pak army. They want the Americans out, often collaborate with the ISI and want to setup a Talibani state over whole of Pak. If at some point in future they decide to setup a Talibani state in the NW then Pak will be in deep trouble.


Pushtun nationalism is very strong, but now it has submerged within the Pakistani-Afghan construct in Taliban Movement. Taliban have now a strong presence in Karachi through the Pushtuns there (the biggest Pushtun concentration in the world) as well as through their branches in Pakjab, who call themselves Punjabi Taliban.

So the ambitions of the Taliban have soared, that they can bring the whole of Pakistan under their control.

Yes at some point the shit will hit the fan, and US may not have a dialogue partner, but as long as Taliban is willing to tolerate the Pakistani memes within its area of rule, they will be able to strike deals with USA as well. But in case at some point USA thinks okay, they are shifting their support to Pakistan, what can we hope to come out of it?

Yes, USA will stop giving them money and weapons, but the Taliban can source that from several other places, now that Muslim populations in some Western countries are enough to force policy decisions, or they may get those from China, through alliance or blackmail. If not, they can still sell drugs through a network of Muslim entities spread across the globe.

But the point is that by attacking a fully Talibanized country like Pakistan, what can somebody hope to achieve? Which Talibanized Paki would want to break out of a Talibanized Pakistan, be he Baloch, Mohajir, Seraiki, Mirpuri, or Pushtun?

The thing is we are able to imagine only the evolution 5 years ahead, but in 5 years we will be doing nothing, rolling our thumbs and hoping something would come out of it, and then we start looking the next 5 years ahead with no change.

After a full Talibanization of Pakistan, if USA withdraws support to it, it is already too late for us to make any difference. We can of course do whole-scale genocide but then that too is day-dreaming.

Taliban would only be setting up areas here and there under their control until they have control over the whole country, but the Taliban are not going to break off from Pakistan. And the Baloch cannot.

I too would like to continue dreaming that all the violence we see in Pakistan brings something for us. On TSP thread, I do not really revel in the violence, not because I have any distaste for loss of life in that shitt state, but simply because it is simply a snapshot in its evolution to more green.

I don't even say that a Talibanized Pakistan is more dangerous for India. No! What I am saying is that a Talibanized Pakistan is even less solvable for India.

So if we want to solve it, it would have to be sooner than later. It would have to be with active intervention, rather than watching stew. It would have to be accepting USA's current support to Pak AND India's compulsions and still finding a different way!

The Iranian Baluchestan Front seems to be the most plausible way at the moment!

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Brad Goodman » 08 Feb 2013 23:33

There is a big shakti peeth for Hinglaj mata over there which is protected by all tribes.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Agnimitra » 08 Feb 2013 23:46

RajeshA ji,

Baluchis already have a history of Mahdi-ism in the Zikri movement which mobilized effectively 150 years ago. So you're absolutely right - the Talibanization of the area "from the Indus to the Oxus" would make the "Greater Khorasan" dream of the Mahdi-ists come true, and Baluchistan will be ground into that.

Therefore, every opportunity lost will mean a bigger, more hypnotized army of orcs to deal with later, and one that has immense energy resources and pipeline control at its disposal. The US and the West (esp. Anglo-Saxons) would probably leave India to deal with that, and they have used Islamism to devour nations or split them since colonial times.

Freeing Baluchistan will still not stop the Mahdi-ism Islamism among them. Actually the freeing of Baluchistan is only a means to break down Islamist Iran (at least as a successful ideology, if not geographically), and thereby free the Persian south-Iranian core from the centuries-old Turko-Iranian Islamist grip. That core can possibly be freed from the ideology of Islamism. Maybe Kurds too, though I'm not sure. But that's unlikely to happen to the Baluchis.

Thus, as Af-Pak inexorably churns down into Mahdi-ism, it is important for India to ensure the rise of a non-Islamic apostate upstart to the WEST of this Caliphate - just to make things interesting on that side rather than ours. After all, there are hadiths more reliable than the Ghazwa beHind that talk of the "Jews of Esfahan" leading the rise of the Dajjal. Tie that to Israel, and its clear which side the Mahdi's army should be concentrating on. As for Ghazwa beHind, that can be fulfilled by the Taliban takeover of 'Sind' and Pakjabi 'Hind' itself. That's a narrative India should help fulfill.

Supratik ji,

Most Surya worship even within India was controlled by a caste called Shakadwipi brahmanas. They came from the area to the west and north of India, shaka-dwipa. So Baluchistan and a lot of Iranic C. Asia was Mithraic in ancient times.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Supratik » 09 Feb 2013 00:17

A nuclear Pak under Taliban will be a nightmare for both India and the US-led West. They will be forced to act either militarily or through economic sanctions like NK. Our best hope is that the Taliban is unable to do so and instead focuses on setting up a Talibani state in the NW.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby JE Menon » 09 Feb 2013 00:36

>>A nuclear Pak under Taliban will be a nightmare for both India and the US-led West.

Not for India. We have been facing them, dressed in Khaki and swilling whiskey, for decades. It might get to be one for the west if they don the clothes and the turbans and apply the kohl and keep a carnation in an appropriate orifice. In fact, it might even be better for us if they bare their teeth. Meanwhile, it might help us even more if we slip them long range delivery capability via the Chinese or North Koreans. That will really put the cat among the pigeons.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 09 Feb 2013 02:34

Supratik wrote:A nuclear Pak under Taliban will be a nightmare for both India and the US-led West. They will be forced to act either militarily or through economic sanctions like NK. Our best hope is that the Taliban is unable to do so and instead focuses on setting up a Talibani state in the NW.



You need to understand the why of Pakistan. It is a sanctuary for Deobandis. Deobandis are a new school in Sunni Islam from Indian sub-continent. The Pak Army is a Deobandi lashkar and had eaten grass to acquire the clown jewels. The day the TTP/Salafist elements make a move to Isloo, the Jihad-e-fistula will stage a coup to secure the clown jewels.

RajeshA, Iranian Baloch self determination is the key to remake the area just as it was Vahic Pradesh that helped Chandragupta Maurya to throw the Greek yoke.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Supratik » 09 Feb 2013 12:10

Yes, for the present US will like to maintain the military and nuclear status quo in Pak wrt India. But what if they are unable to stop the TTP e.g. with the Iranian revolution. However, I don't think the TTP by itself will take over Pak. The chances of Talibanis in the army taking over are higher. The best option for splitting Pak is a Taliban state in the NW and free Balochistan.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 09 Feb 2013 15:26

Supratik wrote:However, I don't think the TTP by itself will take over Pak. The chances of Talibanis in the army taking over are higher.

Exactly. It is actually the same process. TTP and Talibanized TSPA are two sides of the same coin.

Supratik wrote:The best option for splitting Pak is a Taliban state in the NW and free Balochistan.

Taliban would not demand a new state for them in NW for various reasons:

a) The highest Pushtun concentration is in Karachi and not in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa or FATA.

b) They need the rest of Pakistan for resources, for Jihadi funding, for plunder.

c) There is no instance in the whole of Pakistan providing them any sort of resistance, so why limit themselves to a small area.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 09 Feb 2013 15:56

Carl wrote:Thus, as Af-Pak inexorably churns down into Mahdi-ism, it is important for India to ensure the rise of a non-Islamic apostate upstart to the WEST of this Caliphate - just to make things interesting on that side rather than ours. After all, there are hadiths more reliable than the Ghazwa beHind that talk of the "Jews of Esfahan" leading the rise of the Dajjal. Tie that to Israel, and its clear which side the Mahdi's army should be concentrating on. As for Ghazwa beHind, that can be fulfilled by the Taliban takeover of 'Sind' and Pakjabi 'Hind' itself. That's a narrative India should help fulfill.


Ghazwa e-Hind was actually a very successful enterprise on the part of Islam. To the Arabs and Persians, Hind meant only the region around Indus. It is a completely different matter that Hindu Kufr also called the further inlying areas also as Hind but that is only as a form of psychological compensation for losing the real Hind, which is the area around Indus.

This is a prophecy which has been realized 100%. Hind, i.e. Western Punjab and Sind are today part of Dar al-Islam. It is only the Yahud-Hanud-Nassara evil kafir axis and their agents within the Islamic clergy who do not want to give Islam the recognition, Islam really deserves - as an ideology that finishes what it promises. The evil Kufr want to deny Islam just recognition. They deny the prophecy because they believe in Akhand Bharat and believe they can reverse the gains of Islam, but Ghazwa e-Hind has been a successful campaign, and Pakistan, the Fortress of Islam, has been the result of Ghazwa e-Hind.

May Allah's wrath be upon these agents.

Another glorious fulfilled promise of Allah that the Yahud reject is the coming of Mahdi. Allah fulfilled his promise to send the Mahdi when he sent Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn Yūsuf ibn Ayyūb (Saladin) to the momeen and they recaptured Al Quds in the Battle of Hattin (1157 CE). Again jealous munafiqs did not want to give recognition to Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn, and the Mahdi Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn was all too modest to claim such glory for him which his peers were not willing to give. The Mahdi Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn spoke with his sword rather than just words.

May Allah's wrath be upon these Munafiqun.

Allah has fulfilled all promises he gave to the Muslims. In fact the Yawm ad-Din (Day of Judgment) has already taken place and the glorious Shuhuda dine and make merry with Sahabah (Companions of Muhammad) in Jannat and enjoy their deserved hoors. Those who did not make the cut, Allah sent upon the Earth to burn. That is the reason why the so-called Ummah is alight with fires and explosions everywhere. For Ummah does not live in Dar al-Islam anymore, but in Jahannum. What else is Pakistan today, if not Jahannum! The agents of Yahud-Hanud-Nassar will not allow the Muslims to recognize the true reality. The Yawm al-Qiyāmah, "the Day of Resurrection" is long gone. The so called Muslims are those who were found wanting and hence could not enter Jannat, but they continue their suffering in this cognitive dissonance, which is always part of Jahannum.

May Allah's wrath be upon these agents.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 09 Feb 2013 16:39

Iranian Baluchestan Front

ramana wrote:RajeshA, Iranian Baloch self determination is the key to remake the area just as it was Vahic Pradesh that helped Chandragupta Maurya to throw the Greek yoke.


Yes! The search has been for that stone, which if removed can bring the whole house down, which can trigger an avalanche, and Western Balochistan is I feel that stone.

The theory is:

  1. West, Israel, Turkey and Gulf invade West Balochistan throwing Iranians out and secure the place. India should not be part of this force, simply because we have to play the longer innings there, and we cannot have entry besmirched by accusations of "invasion".

  2. India moves in with massive development aid and teams. We extensively use Balochis who live in the India and nationalist Balochis from Pakistan, perhaps those recommended by various Azadi-pasand Baloch parties and orgs. We embed and integrate these Balochis in the Indian developmental aid push. We can of course bolster our presence with some security forces to look after the development teams. We can also make Chahbahar Port as the port of supply.

  3. Through these development effort we build positive vibrations among Western Balochis for India.

  4. We increase the interaction with the political class in Western Balochistan.

  5. We organize a referendum under the auspices of some international body with the help of the West on the question of sovereignty for Western Balochistan. It is recognized as independent.

  6. We move more nationalistic Baloch from Eastern Balochistan into Western Balochistan for doing propaganda and campaigning.

  7. After a year, there can be a second referendum on the question if accession to India. The campaign impresses on the people that if they do not opt for India, neither would they be able to retain their freedom as Iran would move in as soon as the international forces are gone, nor would they be able to free Eastern Balochistan from Pakistan.

  8. Once they accept accession to India, then India can integrate Western Balochistan into our union and build up a military presence there.

  9. The international forces can move out.

  10. The main political faces remain from Western Balochistan.

  11. The Western Balochis are given education and medical facilities and they help in the work of nation building there, but few are inducted into the security forces. Western Balochis are integrated into economic activity in Western Balochistan.

  12. We build an administration service in Western Balochistan made mostly (upto ⅔ of the total) of Eastern Balochis. Also we set up a Baloch Regiment made up exclusively of Eastern Balochis. This is so because Eastern Balochis have more of a Indian Subcontinental consciousness, they would be motivated as their homeland would still be occupied by Pakistan, they are still a lot more moderate and secular and they would be more willing to ensure law and order in Western Balochistan.

  13. We increase our investments in Western Balochistan manifold in road, railroad, ports and airport infrastructure as well as mining. Western Balochis should profit from this.

  14. We give professional training to the Baloch Regiment, which would be part of Indian Army (made up of up to 90% of Eastern Balochis) and then we send them in into Eastern Balochistan for kicking Pakistani butt with heavy weaponry.

  15. Also through Western Balochistan's border with Afghanistan we start cultivating renegade Taliban commanders for attacks into Pakistan, and open another anti-Pak front from there.

As to why "international community" would help us, please read the earlier post.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 09 Feb 2013 16:56

Cross-Posting a news item posted by chaanakya from "India-Russia: News & Analysis" Thread

Published on Dec 30, 2012
By Indrani Bagchi
Russian nod for India’s bid to link south with central Asia: Times of India

NEW DELHI: India's pet project to link south with central Asia got support from Russian president Vladimir Putin. During their talks in New Delhi last week, Singh and Putin agreed to unfreeze the north-south corridor through Iran within the next year. India has taken the lead role in pushing for the completion of this project.

Indian officials said they would push for the completion of the corridor and were willing to step in, if Iran found it difficult to accomplish the task. The corridor is, by and large complete, they said, except for a section inside Iran between Qazvin-Rasht-Astara. The corridor is useless unless the Iranian section is completed. Although the agreement was inked by India, Iran, Russia and Oman in 2001, Tehran has dragged its feet on the project.

Now, the urgency for completion of the project is due to the imminent drawdown of NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2014. New Delhi figures that this project will be a game-changer for its trade and open Indian economy to the rising economies in central Asia, by connecting India with Afghanistan and beyond, bypassing Pakistan.

India's aims in the region is coalescing with Russia, which is paying greater attention to it's "near abroad". Russia is concerned about the rise of Islamic extremism in its southern periphery and one of the ways of countering this is to open these landlocked nations to trade and connectivity with India.

Another reason for both Russia and India to concentrate on central Asia is the growing influence and presence of China in this region, which has raised concerns in Moscow and New Delhi. China is far ahead of both Russia and India in establishing connectivity with the central Asian countries — China's aims being to stabilize its own western periphery, with the restive province of Xinjiang as the focus. Beijing has already built an intricate set of oil and gas pipelines to Kazakhstan, and a Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China gas pipeline. In 2011, the trade turnover between China and the five central Asian countries reached $16.98 billion. Beijing is currently working on a rail link to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. China's progress, frankly, puts India's sluggish initiatives in the shade.

India has recently received help from other quarters. Turkey has stepped in, offering itself as a more viable transit route for the corridor, given its already-developed connections with central Asian nations and Russia. On the other hand, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have both asked Indian leaders to consider connecting them to the corridor.

The Northern Distribution Network (NDN), which is being used by the US to transport supplies and weapons to its forces in Afghanistan by steering clear of Pakistan, is on offer for trade and connectivity in the post-2014 environment, said sources. Tajikistan has offered to connect itself to the Zaranj-Delaram road and Afghanistan's garland highway, which will give it access to Iran's Chahbahar port.

All of this is certain to raise Iran's geo-political profile that India and Russia support. Iran, however, has been tardy in putting its own infrastructure in order. However, Iranian diplomats have recently gone on record to say that they have completed "70% of works on construction of Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railroad within the framework of North-South Transport Corridor project."

Iran, India and Afghanistan have recently started to coordinate work on the Chahbahar port project. Again, here, the delay is on the Iranian side. India has offered to undertake the development of the port in Iran — over $5 billion of India's oil payments to Iran are sitting in Indian banks in Indian currency, and the idea is that this could be used in the port's development.

The Chahbahar port would be a lifeline for landlocked Afghanistan, by reducing its dependence on Pakistan. It would also act as a bridge to connect central Asia with India. Ultimately, it promises to open up vast markets in Eurasian countries to Indian goods and services, cutting travel and freight time and cost.

Uzbek and Kazakh leaders have pressed India to complete the project because it would open up the Indian energy market to these countries. Kazakhstan has offered the Satpayev block to India and is slated to become a key uranium supplier to India's civilian nuclear sector. But lack of connectivity is a serious deterrent at present, said officials. In fact, its cheaper to bring goods to India through China from these countries!

But the focus is to complete the missing section in Iran. Of the 375-km-long Qazvin-Astara-Rasht route, around 300 km is located in Iran. While, 8.5km of railways will be built in Azerbaijan.


Iranian regime is preoccupied with its Pan-Islamism agenda, and actually feels that if Central Asia prospers, it would become less backward and as such less responsive to Iranian supremacy agenda. Iran's wish is to keep Central Asia in the dark ages and then to present itself as some messiah of high culture and center of prosperity to which all Central Asians look up to.

An Iran cannot compete with India for cultural influence in Central Asia if India gets a direct trade connection with the region.

Iran needs to be taken out of the equation!

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 14 Feb 2013 19:55

Iranian Baluchestan Front

Continuing from 'TIRP' Thread

SSridhar wrote:Composite Dialogue with Pak., a failure - G.Parthasarathy, Businessline
Pakistan’s confidence about continuing US support is evident from the manner in which it has reached an agreement with Iran on the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and virtually handed over the strategic Gwadar port to China. General Kayani will demand a high price for facilitating American withdrawal from Afghanistan.


I had written earlier
RajeshA wrote:In the end, after 2014, most probably Iran and Pakistan with the help of China are going to cut off Central Asia for good from the rest of the world. Iran and Pakistan are going to act as the gatekeepers to Central Asia and they are going to work in sync.


This is what I have trying to tell over this series of posts! India must make a move to nudge USA to do the needful in Iran.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Agnimitra » 16 Feb 2013 05:52

From the Letters section of Fri Times:
Punjabi pickle
Sir,

The partitioning of Punjab into smaller provinces is a hot topic nowadays. Without going into the historical perspective of the matter, we must understand that among all the federating units of Pakistan, Punjab was and still is the only unit which is a geographical entity rather than a cultural one. Punjab is so diverse in culture that within a district sometimes there are more than one dialects of a local language. The fact has been admitted by many Punjabi intellectuals including former Punjab governor Hanif Ramay in his widely acclaimed "Punjab Ka Muqadama". The interesting fact about the book is that the case of Punjab has been presented in Urdu.

The deprivation of southern Punjab or the Seraiki belt is no fiction, there are factual proofs of that. According to BBC, there are more than 1,000 CSP officers hailing from the north eastern Punjab and only 257 from southern Punjab. The contrast is very sharp and speaks for itself.

The other side of the picture is that the feudal aristocrats hailing from southern Punjab have always been at the helm of the affairs. Why have they not done anything for their own people?

The fact is that the partitioning of Punjab on the eve of elections is nothing but a political gimmick. The ruling party has lost its support in north and central Punjab leaving them with no choice but to strengthen their political future, along with that of other left leaning forces.

But the consequences of the division might favor the feudals of southern Punjab, and the common man may suffer more at the hands of traditional, absolutists power structures historically present there.

Asif Amin,

Multan.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 22 Feb 2013 21:48

Change Dance Partners

X-Posting from "India and Japan: News and Discussion" Thread

The way to solve North Korea and Pakistan cooperation on nuclear missiles is for India to take Arihant and beat the shit out of the North Koreans and for Japan to take their subs and bomb Pakistan to stone age.

Each can declare their target an enemy because of this nuclear and missile partnership. Would Pakis object if North Korea is hit by Indians? Well maybe! But do they want to start a war because of that? Would North Koreans attack Japan if Japan hits Pakistan's nuclear sites? Don't think so!

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 22 Feb 2013 23:52

Continuing from "Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations" Thread

shyamd wrote:They didnt have money before and still fight with or without but this is about changing their mindset into one that is productive or else eternal war and we won't progress either.

But the people can force them to change their mind

I am not saying this superficially, but we have it completely wrong. It is the other way round. They will change their mindset when they have zero hope of succeeding. Nuclear weapons, successful proxy wars, no retaliation on terrorism, demographic expansion, and an Afghanistan victory means their hopes are sky-high, all the rest statistics be damned. With sky-high hopes, there will be no letting in their Ghazwa e-Hind fantasies.

After all the Gandhi coddling, Partition, return of conquered lands and PoWs, IWT, non-aggression, MFNs, CBMs, Aman ki Asha, if they can't come around, they won't come around.

Changing the mindset is a project best undertaken by those who don't live in denial and understand Paki mentality and not the WKK types.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby shyamd » 23 Feb 2013 00:33

As always thanks for the reply.

I'll split your reply into parts.
RajeshA wrote:I am not saying this superficially, but we have it completely wrong. It is the other way round. They will change their mindset when they have zero hope of succeeding.

Pak have been neighbours for a long time now and we both no they have had little success in any wars - if anything they have lost almost every war they have fought.

Nuclear weapons, successful proxy wars, no retaliation on terrorism, demographic expansion, and an Afghanistan victory means their hopes are sky-high, all the rest statistics be damned. With sky-high hopes, there will be no letting in their Ghazwa e-Hind fantasies.

They tried after 1990 to do the same in Kashmir then again in Kargil. All this with the confidence of winning in Afghanistan and that Kashmir would rise and all the new weapons they had from the US.

They see India as a bigger enemy and they use terror to weaken the will of Indians and use it as a way to keep India tied up on internal issues - it gives Pak a "chance" to win a war. It doesnt matter what is right or wrong - this is how they see/perceive the picture.

After all the Gandhi coddling, Partition, return of conquered lands and PoWs, IWT, non-aggression, MFNs, CBMs, Aman ki Asha, if they can't come around, they won't come around.

Probably not. But has the lives of the average indian improved (economically, resources, services etc) in peacetime and how does that compare to years of war?

In my town, roads began crumbling and infrastructure wasn't built for about 2 years because funds were taken away for post-tsunami rebuilding. It had consequences in the local economy. Now you can imagine a war.

Changing the mindset is a project best undertaken by those who don't live in denial and understand Paki mentality and not the WKK types.

Its worth a shot and its probably cheaper than fighting.

But saying all this - don't think that Indian strategists are shying away from using war as a tool - they will when the time is right. 1971 is a good example of that.

Aman-ki-asha will continue no matter who is in power.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 23 Feb 2013 00:58

shyamd wrote:
After all the Gandhi coddling, Partition, return of conquered lands and PoWs, IWT, non-aggression, MFNs, CBMs, Aman ki Asha, if they can't come around, they won't come around.

Probably not. But has the lives of the average indian improved (economically, resources, services etc) in peacetime and how does that compare to years of war?

In my town, roads began crumbling and infrastructure wasn't built for about 2 years because funds were taken away for post-tsunami rebuilding. It had consequences in the local economy. Now you can imagine a war.

Some say war can also improve economy, i.e. if there is some indigenous MIC.

shyamd wrote:
Changing the mindset is a project best undertaken by those who don't live in denial and understand Paki mentality and not the WKK types.

Its worth a shot and its probably cheaper than fighting.

But saying all this - don't think that Indian strategists are shying away from using war as a tool - they will when the time is right. 1971 is a good example of that.

Aman-ki-asha will continue no matter who is in power.

Indian strategists need to know how to react to subconventional warfare from Pakistan - terrorism, proxy wars, counterfeit money, Islamic propaganda, drugs, etc.

The scenario where there one-on-one war may be possible, but we cannot wait for that scenario only. Being on the defensive does not solve subconventional threats. The saying "sau sunaar ki to ek lauhaar ki" has no validity here. We cannot set up a very high red line which keeps on getting higher. We need to be kicking butt on a continuous basis, tightening the screws, making their noses bleed, and most of all humiliating them as much as possible.

We can also keep it cheap! Either full appeasement or MAD is a wrong proposition.

Yes I know "Aman ki Asha" would continue regardless of which dispensation comes, but that can continue even if we keep on squeezing their balls.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 23 Feb 2013 01:05

Pakeezahs

Continuing from "Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations" Thread

Carl wrote:But see, the Turks are trading Syrian refugee women, not their own! But then I guess it becomes a case of one fourfather selling the women of another fourfather! This ij conphujing.

Considering that Afghan refugee women (or girls kidnapped within Afghanistan itself) were being sold as wives or prostitutes in markets as far as Karachi, perhaps some of that can be siphoned off to India too? I do know that Iranian women (and perhaps some from N. Afghanistan) were becoming increasingly common spouses or second spouses among Moslems in Hyderabad, India, and some were finding their way into the prostitution industry. But what India needs are legitimate brides for our single men in certain regions, irrespective of caste or creed. Agencies need to break into the Islamist mafia - it will be to the benefit of the women involved.


Carl ji,

I wrote some posts on that earlier. [1] [2] [3].

Carl ji,

there is lots of money to be made and many women in Pakistan would feel grateful. This is something which would make all parties involved happy, except a few Mullahs who don't get their cut.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Agnimitra » 23 Feb 2013 01:25

RajeshA wrote:there is lots of money to be made and many women in Pakistan would feel grateful. This is something which would make all parties involved happy, except a few Mullahs who don't get their cut.

I agree that if we do it right, taking care of their needs, there would be many of our long-lost sisters in Pakistan who would feel grateful to find a home and new life in India.

To establish that trend at an international level - legally as well as psychologically - India should declare asylum to certain persecuted communities in TSP (all in the same breath):
1. Christians (with great focus on this segment for international media purposes)
2. Sikhs and Hindus from Af-Pak
3. All women of ANY caste, creed, etc. The hundreds of Rinkle Kumari cases every year can be highlighted, along with the many other abusive actions against women such as Malalah, etc. Being a secular republic, it would be extremely mean-minded to only offer asylum to Hindu-Sikh women and not to our Muslim sisters. Certainly, any women from anywhere in the world, and certainly the subcontinent, can take asylum in India. But due to our shortage of resources and overpopulation, we must legally restrict any chain migration, though visits can be facilitated.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby shyamd » 23 Feb 2013 15:49

RajeshA wrote:Some say war can also improve economy, i.e. if there is some indigenous MIC.

Yes but we can see the economic situation in the west now - despite having a bloated MIC.

Indian strategists need to know how to react to subconventional warfare from Pakistan - terrorism, proxy wars, counterfeit money, Islamic propaganda, drugs, etc.

Each one of those listed deserves a seperate answer. But on terror - there is a case of paying back in kind - but look at TSP now - every day 72 reach their 72. Is any more going to change TSP strategists minds? Probably not. Last year there was a large explosion on their ISI office in Lahore taking out their K division officers (10 of 12 or something like that). Year before that there was a car bomb in the residential area of senior TSPA officers (albeit no damage was caused on purpose - but I presume it was probably a message being sent). I'm not saying India is doing this but the fact is we don't blow our trumpet when we do something or another and say yes we did xyz against TSP and boast. Simple - we don't talk about it (the answer is the same be it if you ask RAW officers or Army). Then look at Balochistan - its gone past the point of no return (not by our doing). How much more do you propose we do and what results is it going to have?

The scenario where there one-on-one war may be possible, but we cannot wait for that scenario only. Being on the defensive does not solve subconventional threats. The saying "sau sunaar ki to ek lauhaar ki" has no validity here. We cannot set up a very high red line which keeps on getting higher. We need to be kicking butt on a continuous basis, tightening the screws, making their noses bleed, and most of all humiliating them as much as possible.

We can also keep it cheap! Either full appeasement or MAD is a wrong proposition.


Or you could just absorb the hits and say - and what? so what? India is growing and growing and you can no longer match us in any way - be it economically, militarily etc. These bomb blasts, fake currency etc have little or no effect on our economy. Or you could fight a war that will buy peace for what... 2 or 3 years (even that is debatable as terrorists were still coming across the border after we fought kargil, did parakram) rather than spend on developing quality of peoples lives.

Then there is the additional problem of if we collapse the state of Pak - refugees are not going to go to Iran, they aren't going to Afghanistan, they'll head straight for India and we'll probably have to sort the mess out - sorry but I'd rather the people of TSP stay in TSP and I dont want a paisa of my taxes to be spent on their upkeep.

Dealing with TSP needs a different strategy. We are talking to their 3 friends - KSA, US and PRC. Its bringing some results. But they are saying - TSP create the problem and run to us to help fix it. US/PRC see TSP as a way to keep India in check. KSA wants access to their nukes and a reliable partner against Iran. So the 3 have no choice but to help. The dialogue with the 3 is bringing better results than not talking at all.

Post 2014 - I think we are heading for conflict.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 23 Feb 2013 17:26

shyamd wrote:
RajeshA wrote:Some say war can also improve economy, i.e. if there is some indigenous MIC.

Yes but we can see the economic situation in the west now - despite having a bloated MIC.


What broke their back was not the war (invasion) but the occupation.

shyamd wrote:
Indian strategists need to know how to react to subconventional warfare from Pakistan - terrorism, proxy wars, counterfeit money, Islamic propaganda, drugs, etc.

Each one of those listed deserves a seperate answer. But on terror - there is a case of paying back in kind - but look at TSP now - every day 72 reach their 72. Is any more going to change TSP strategists minds? Probably not. Last year there was a large explosion on their ISI office in Lahore taking out their K division officers (10 of 12 or something like that). Year before that there was a car bomb in the residential area of senior TSPA officers (albeit no damage was caused on purpose - but I presume it was probably a message being sent). I'm not saying India is doing this but the fact is we don't blow our trumpet when we do something or another and say yes we did xyz against TSP and boast. Simple - we don't talk about it (the answer is the same be it if you ask RAW officers or Army).

But Hafiz Saeed roams free, and Lakhvi gets the best Biryani. If we were up to these things there, they should have been taken out long time ago.

I believe you are underestimating how terror affects the people in India. I don't mean the trauma. I am talking about long term disenchantment with own state and own people. It generates a certain disgust in individuals that the state does not care about their lives. One starts feeling a loss of sense of security one gets in a group. The nation, the group ceases to be the group for which then one oneself is willing to sacrifice one's life. In the end, it does not just affect the common people but our security forces too, their morale.

All this is not directly quantifiable, but it leads to a withering of national feeling.

In some way the other needs to pay and this payment we need to extort visibly. Even if it were behind the scenes, all this taking down of Indian enemies does not do one bit of good for the national psyche.

Sure a lot more can be culled down without us taking the credit for it, if it helps bring down terrorism, but there needs to be visible retaliation also. Two years ago I suggested "Land for Terror" policy.

One may wave this aspect off as an emotional response where one needs to be thinking straight, but these "cold calculations" ignore the needs of the national psyche at one's peril. The feeling of abandonment trickles down to the local level.

This "not boasting" may sound mature, but it does not weigh in the above rationality.

shyamd wrote:
The scenario where there one-on-one war may be possible, but we cannot wait for that scenario only. Being on the defensive does not solve subconventional threats. The saying "sau sunaar ki to ek lauhaar ki" has no validity here. We cannot set up a very high red line which keeps on getting higher. We need to be kicking butt on a continuous basis, tightening the screws, making their noses bleed, and most of all humiliating them as much as possible.

We can also keep it cheap! Either full appeasement or MAD is a wrong proposition.


Or you could just absorb the hits and say - and what? so what? India is growing and growing and you can no longer match us in any way - be it economically, militarily etc. These bomb blasts, fake currency etc have little or no effect on our economy. Or you could fight a war that will buy peace for what... 2 or 3 years (even that is debatable as terrorists were still coming across the border after we fought kargil, did parakram) rather than spend on developing quality of peoples lives.

Then there is the additional problem of if we collapse the state of Pak - refugees are not going to go to Iran, they aren't going to Afghanistan, they'll head straight for India and we'll probably have to sort the mess out - sorry but I'd rather the people of TSP stay in TSP and I dont want a paisa of my taxes to be spent on their upkeep.

Dealing with TSP needs a different strategy. We are talking to their 3 friends - KSA, US and PRC. Its bringing some results. But they are saying - TSP create the problem and run to us to help fix it. US/PRC see TSP as a way to keep India in check. KSA wants access to their nukes and a reliable partner against Iran. So the 3 have no choice but to help. The dialogue with the 3 is bringing better results than not talking at all.

Post 2014 - I think we are heading for conflict.


The Paki cannot match us, either economically or militarily. That is well-known. But it is never a question of comparison. I, Indian, am rich and you're dirt poor, you Paki! From such a comparison all one gets is a little ego boost, and nothing more. The question is always, does the Paki pose a civilizational threat to us, and that remains. Be it through nuclear weapons, or be it through demographic expansion of Islam in the Indian Subcontinent. So the Paki of today cannot really measure up to us, but two generations down the line, the chaos he produced can still overwhelm us. And the Islamic core would have succeeded in taking down India.

By harping on the needs of the economy we are only kicking down the can to the next generations of Indians. Can't we build our economy while taking down this pest?

This is akin to a cancer patient who does not want to go to treatment, because that would mean he would have to take day off from work and this could cause him loss of income.

Islamic core can thrive in chaos like Somalia and they can thrive in a country like Malaysia, or Saudia Arabia. Economics is not the determinant here. The Paki people are just firewood for the Islamic core.

So why should I feel exhilarated by different economic indices between us, why should I compare myself to firewood?!

I don't think talking to PRC really helps. If we want to start solving the problem, then we should go to the Saudis and talk about Iranian Balochistan and let the Saudis bring USA on board. I put up a series of posts on this scenario.

2014 Iran too becomes a hot potato issue!

shyamd
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby shyamd » 23 Feb 2013 22:01

RajeshA wrote:What broke their back was not the war (invasion) but the occupation.

Yeah but it takes time to set up govt, train and all that - which costs money,. As soon as the economy couldnt sustain the expenditure on MIC - they are cutting the budget now by $400bn over next 5 years.

But Hafiz Saeed roams free, and Lakhvi gets the best Biryani. If we were up to these things there, they should have been taken out long time ago.

Yeah so was the leader of Hamas - Sheikh Yassin until after all those years they decided to drop a bomb on him. He was roaming in a wheelchair openly going out spewing his BS. Even Nasrallah - the Israeli's knew where he was, same with Arafat in the intifada days.

In this case, Saeed and lakhvi are just puppets - its a waste of time taking them out and they'll go on a propaganda overdrive and recruit more people. Someone else will replace him. It doesn't end it. Instead I'd rather hit the people pulling the strings.

But having said all this we are keeping our hands clean for now - they are suffering a lot and taking big blows (afghans, US and Omani's doing their bit) and us adding to that won't change much. We want to bury the hatchet forever and encourage them to do business instead of fight war.

I believe you are underestimating how terror affects the people in India. I don't mean the trauma. I am talking about long term disenchantment with own state and own people. It generates a certain disgust in individuals that the state does not care about their lives. One starts feeling a loss of sense of security one gets in a group. The nation, the group ceases to be the group for which then one oneself is willing to sacrifice one's life. In the end, it does not just affect the common people but our security forces too, their morale.

All this is not directly quantifiable, but it leads to a withering of national feeling.

Maybe there is a case here and I really feel GoI natsec PR is apalling. No one understands their strategy (partly because the media is too busy and lacks the understanding - also i dont think it sells for newspapers) - this was pointed out to the NSA too in the recent IDSA conference. Terror is an attempt to break the will of the people, however I have not seen it in my personal interactions with people. I still see kids who say they want to join the forces, speak to members of the security establishment who are proud of their work. But perhaps discussing strategy in a more public fashion will help - but we don't have ego's and as you quite rightly pointed out there is no emotional decisions here - everything is cold decisions. imo i think thats a good thing..

In some way the other needs to pay and this payment we need to extort visibly. Even if it were behind the scenes, all this taking down of Indian enemies does not do one bit of good for the national psyche.

I have always said the covert option is the best - so I completely agree with you. But I know that they are trying to seriously convince TSP to stop war and do business instead. So let them try this "no war agreement" and aman-ki-asha.


One may wave this aspect off as an emotional response where one needs to be thinking straight, but these "cold calculations" ignore the needs of the national psyche at one's peril. The feeling of abandonment trickles down to the local level.

I dont think its a big enough issue yet - I think if it was an issue, I don't think people would vote INC of all groups.

The Paki cannot match us, either economically or militarily. That is well-known. But it is never a question of comparison. I, Indian, am rich and you're dirt poor, you Paki! From such a comparison all one gets is a little ego boost, and nothing more. The question is always, does the Paki pose a civilizational threat to us, and that remains.

Boss, re-read this paragraph. The fact that we continue to take broad strides economically and the average citizen has benefited in the last 10 years without war despite all sorts of provocation by TSP shows that they are not an existential threat at all. Just a little dot and thats all they will be. We don't care about what pak does and is doing.

Be it through nuclear weapons, or be it through demographic expansion of Islam in the Indian Subcontinent. So the Paki of today cannot really measure up to us, but two generations down the line, the chaos he produced can still overwhelm us. And the Islamic core would have succeeded in taking down India.

I really beg to differ on TSP. Demographic expansion of islam is a different issue.

By harping on the needs of the economy we are only kicking down the can to the next generations of Indians. Can't we build our economy while taking down this pest?

You have to take away resources from somewhere else to pay for it and then once you take them down... then what? Still a drain on our pockets coz someone has to pay to fix it once its totally broken.

This is akin to a cancer patient who does not want to go to treatment, because that would mean he would have to take day off from work and this could cause him loss of income.

I dont see it as starkly as you do. I think opportunities will present itself. Look at Bangladesh now - there is a pro indian govt who is providing us with a lot of security support - they are about to say no religion in politics and ban the jamaat. We can't just wave a wand and make extremist islam disappear. It takes time to eradicate.

In TSP we missed an opportunity last year to back a coup.

Islamic core can thrive in chaos like Somalia and they can thrive in a country like Malaysia, or Saudia Arabia. Economics is not the determinant here. The Paki people are just firewood for the Islamic core.

Yup - but don't underestimate economics - it makes a big difference.

I don't think talking to PRC really helps. If we want to start solving the problem, then we should go to the Saudis and talk about Iranian Balochistan and let the Saudis bring USA on board. I put up a series of posts on this scenario.

Yeah but they are complaining to us about TSP because TSP is giving them beatings in Xinjiang! So they are slightly receptive to have dialogue - but I emphasise only slightly.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 08 Mar 2013 20:57

Cross-Posting from "TIRP" Thread

ramana wrote:The Ottomon Turks went on agonizing over the defeat at Vienna for over two centuries and finally the Young Turks emerged. The overthrow of the Sultanate was a payback for the defeat at Vienna. The TSPA has not paid the price for the defeat in 1971 as they staged coup after coup to prevent any payback.


ramana garu,

a defeat by an Islamic Army by a Kufr Army is simply not digestible. The only refrain is that it was only a battle but the war continues. So the historical memory would simply not go away!

When the Islamic Army chants AoA. They actually think that Allah is on their side and would deliver a victory. When that does not happen, it causes massive cognitive dissonance. Everything is a theological battle for them - whose God is stronger?

That is why I am of the opinion, that TSPA should be given one thapparh (slap) after another till eternity. Every opportunity needs to be used to give thapparh! And their capacity needs to be consequently weakened.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Prem » 08 Mar 2013 23:18

The Thappar sequence must have an end, No fun leaving wounded Pig alive .

RajeshA
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 09 Mar 2013 00:00

Jhujar wrote:The Thappar sequence must have an end, No fun leaving wounded Pig alive .


Jhujar ji,

the Continuous Thapparh Strategy is simply another strategy, or a supplementary strategy to make them see reason, which is that Allah is not with them, and so they need not be with Allah either! Upon such reason dawning on them, of course the thapparh sequence would also reach an end.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Agnimitra » 09 Mar 2013 00:32

RajeshA wrote:the Continuous Thapparh Strategy is simply another strategy, or a supplementary strategy to make them see reason,

From a psy-ops perspective, continuous thapparhs can make the enemy ideology stabilize in a mode of covert hostility and taqiyyah, which is far more dangerous than over hostility. Rather, a sudden, crushing surprise clobbering can send them down into apathy (as seen in the aftermath of 1971).

Let them play the game of a thousands cuts. We need to play defence, and when we do strike overtly, it has to be decisive.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 18 Mar 2013 20:42

March 18 2013

India: On Friday, Chief of Army Staff General Bikram Singh warned Pakistan that there can be no military confidence-building measures (CBM) as long as Pakistan exports terrorism.

"The term CBM has got to be preceded by addressing trust deficit. You cannot talk of these things for endless years the way the things are going on. [b]You cannot afford to keep open this tap of exporting terrorism to India. You have to check that and only then we can move forward," Gen. Singh said
.


Comment: The setting for the General's remarks was the India Today Conclave 2013. Singh spoke in a session on the Army's role in nation-building. The context was the attack in Kashmir against the Central Reserve Police Force camp and Pakistan's condemnation of India for hanging a convicted terrorist.

Relative to army modernization, General Singh said that India's mountain strike corps is nearly formed. This is a special army corps for fighting along the Line of Actual Control opposite China. As a "strike corps," its mission is offensive[/b]. :mrgreen:


Pakistan: For the record. On Saturday, 16 March, an elected government completed a full five-year term of office, for the first time in Pakistan's history. In a televised farewell address to the nation, Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf said, "Despite all odds, completion of the term is an extraordinary and historic achievement." :((

Comment: An interim prime minister will be appointed by the President and manage a caretaker government until elections in May. If the electoral process proceeds without violent disruption, 2013 would mark the year of Pakistan's first transfer of power between elected governments.

This is tonight's good news, tentatively. The signature achievement of the government is that it lasted five years, according to Pakistani analysts. The economy is a wreck; inflation is 7% and rising; energy shortages are chronic; the value of the Rupee is dropping and law and order conditions are almost out of control in Karachi the largest city. :rotfl:


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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 31 Mar 2013 11:36

Cross-posting from the "TIRP" Thread

Cosmo_R wrote:
RajeshA wrote:Cosmo_R ji,

sure we are the same people, but we are the winners they are the losers, we have Ma and they have GUBO, we are healthy and they are inbred, we have our fierce independence and they are slaves! We may be the same "people", but we are not same.

There is the Bharatiya caste, and there is the Baki caste! We are two different castes! Some RAPE want to belong to Bharatiya caste, but cannot!


Rajeshji, think evolution.

We have evolved. They have not. Inbreeding keeps it all in the family.

We are now a different species. They are digging in the dirt for insects. We are looking towards the sky.

Different forks in the evolutionary road.


I tend to think of it somewhat differently - more in terms of not Two-Nation Theory, but Two-Caste Theory - the Bharatiya Caste and the Baki Caste. Each Caste is progressing according to its intrinsic memes as codified in their respective ideological genes.

My views on Varna are clear from my expositions on the Bharatiya Thread, but in this case I would like to put the Islamo-British model of caste to its maximum rhetorical use.

The more one forces the India-Pak dynamic into the Two-Caste Paradigm the more one would see the Pakis squirming. I think Pakis are even more sensitive to meaning of caste than Indians.

We should not use 'jAti' or 'varNa' in this case, but 'caste'. It will be both a case of digestion as well as excretion.


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