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Managing Pakistan's failure

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RajeshA
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 22 Feb 2013 23:52

Continuing from "Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations" Thread

shyamd wrote:They didnt have money before and still fight with or without but this is about changing their mindset into one that is productive or else eternal war and we won't progress either.

But the people can force them to change their mind

I am not saying this superficially, but we have it completely wrong. It is the other way round. They will change their mindset when they have zero hope of succeeding. Nuclear weapons, successful proxy wars, no retaliation on terrorism, demographic expansion, and an Afghanistan victory means their hopes are sky-high, all the rest statistics be damned. With sky-high hopes, there will be no letting in their Ghazwa e-Hind fantasies.

After all the Gandhi coddling, Partition, return of conquered lands and PoWs, IWT, non-aggression, MFNs, CBMs, Aman ki Asha, if they can't come around, they won't come around.

Changing the mindset is a project best undertaken by those who don't live in denial and understand Paki mentality and not the WKK types.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby shyamd » 23 Feb 2013 00:33

As always thanks for the reply.

I'll split your reply into parts.
RajeshA wrote:I am not saying this superficially, but we have it completely wrong. It is the other way round. They will change their mindset when they have zero hope of succeeding.

Pak have been neighbours for a long time now and we both no they have had little success in any wars - if anything they have lost almost every war they have fought.

Nuclear weapons, successful proxy wars, no retaliation on terrorism, demographic expansion, and an Afghanistan victory means their hopes are sky-high, all the rest statistics be damned. With sky-high hopes, there will be no letting in their Ghazwa e-Hind fantasies.

They tried after 1990 to do the same in Kashmir then again in Kargil. All this with the confidence of winning in Afghanistan and that Kashmir would rise and all the new weapons they had from the US.

They see India as a bigger enemy and they use terror to weaken the will of Indians and use it as a way to keep India tied up on internal issues - it gives Pak a "chance" to win a war. It doesnt matter what is right or wrong - this is how they see/perceive the picture.

After all the Gandhi coddling, Partition, return of conquered lands and PoWs, IWT, non-aggression, MFNs, CBMs, Aman ki Asha, if they can't come around, they won't come around.

Probably not. But has the lives of the average indian improved (economically, resources, services etc) in peacetime and how does that compare to years of war?

In my town, roads began crumbling and infrastructure wasn't built for about 2 years because funds were taken away for post-tsunami rebuilding. It had consequences in the local economy. Now you can imagine a war.

Changing the mindset is a project best undertaken by those who don't live in denial and understand Paki mentality and not the WKK types.

Its worth a shot and its probably cheaper than fighting.

But saying all this - don't think that Indian strategists are shying away from using war as a tool - they will when the time is right. 1971 is a good example of that.

Aman-ki-asha will continue no matter who is in power.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 23 Feb 2013 00:58

shyamd wrote:
After all the Gandhi coddling, Partition, return of conquered lands and PoWs, IWT, non-aggression, MFNs, CBMs, Aman ki Asha, if they can't come around, they won't come around.

Probably not. But has the lives of the average indian improved (economically, resources, services etc) in peacetime and how does that compare to years of war?

In my town, roads began crumbling and infrastructure wasn't built for about 2 years because funds were taken away for post-tsunami rebuilding. It had consequences in the local economy. Now you can imagine a war.

Some say war can also improve economy, i.e. if there is some indigenous MIC.

shyamd wrote:
Changing the mindset is a project best undertaken by those who don't live in denial and understand Paki mentality and not the WKK types.

Its worth a shot and its probably cheaper than fighting.

But saying all this - don't think that Indian strategists are shying away from using war as a tool - they will when the time is right. 1971 is a good example of that.

Aman-ki-asha will continue no matter who is in power.

Indian strategists need to know how to react to subconventional warfare from Pakistan - terrorism, proxy wars, counterfeit money, Islamic propaganda, drugs, etc.

The scenario where there one-on-one war may be possible, but we cannot wait for that scenario only. Being on the defensive does not solve subconventional threats. The saying "sau sunaar ki to ek lauhaar ki" has no validity here. We cannot set up a very high red line which keeps on getting higher. We need to be kicking butt on a continuous basis, tightening the screws, making their noses bleed, and most of all humiliating them as much as possible.

We can also keep it cheap! Either full appeasement or MAD is a wrong proposition.

Yes I know "Aman ki Asha" would continue regardless of which dispensation comes, but that can continue even if we keep on squeezing their balls.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 23 Feb 2013 01:05

Pakeezahs

Continuing from "Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations" Thread

Carl wrote:But see, the Turks are trading Syrian refugee women, not their own! But then I guess it becomes a case of one fourfather selling the women of another fourfather! This ij conphujing.

Considering that Afghan refugee women (or girls kidnapped within Afghanistan itself) were being sold as wives or prostitutes in markets as far as Karachi, perhaps some of that can be siphoned off to India too? I do know that Iranian women (and perhaps some from N. Afghanistan) were becoming increasingly common spouses or second spouses among Moslems in Hyderabad, India, and some were finding their way into the prostitution industry. But what India needs are legitimate brides for our single men in certain regions, irrespective of caste or creed. Agencies need to break into the Islamist mafia - it will be to the benefit of the women involved.


Carl ji,

I wrote some posts on that earlier. [1] [2] [3].

Carl ji,

there is lots of money to be made and many women in Pakistan would feel grateful. This is something which would make all parties involved happy, except a few Mullahs who don't get their cut.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Agnimitra » 23 Feb 2013 01:25

RajeshA wrote:there is lots of money to be made and many women in Pakistan would feel grateful. This is something which would make all parties involved happy, except a few Mullahs who don't get their cut.

I agree that if we do it right, taking care of their needs, there would be many of our long-lost sisters in Pakistan who would feel grateful to find a home and new life in India.

To establish that trend at an international level - legally as well as psychologically - India should declare asylum to certain persecuted communities in TSP (all in the same breath):
1. Christians (with great focus on this segment for international media purposes)
2. Sikhs and Hindus from Af-Pak
3. All women of ANY caste, creed, etc. The hundreds of Rinkle Kumari cases every year can be highlighted, along with the many other abusive actions against women such as Malalah, etc. Being a secular republic, it would be extremely mean-minded to only offer asylum to Hindu-Sikh women and not to our Muslim sisters. Certainly, any women from anywhere in the world, and certainly the subcontinent, can take asylum in India. But due to our shortage of resources and overpopulation, we must legally restrict any chain migration, though visits can be facilitated.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby shyamd » 23 Feb 2013 15:49

RajeshA wrote:Some say war can also improve economy, i.e. if there is some indigenous MIC.

Yes but we can see the economic situation in the west now - despite having a bloated MIC.

Indian strategists need to know how to react to subconventional warfare from Pakistan - terrorism, proxy wars, counterfeit money, Islamic propaganda, drugs, etc.

Each one of those listed deserves a seperate answer. But on terror - there is a case of paying back in kind - but look at TSP now - every day 72 reach their 72. Is any more going to change TSP strategists minds? Probably not. Last year there was a large explosion on their ISI office in Lahore taking out their K division officers (10 of 12 or something like that). Year before that there was a car bomb in the residential area of senior TSPA officers (albeit no damage was caused on purpose - but I presume it was probably a message being sent). I'm not saying India is doing this but the fact is we don't blow our trumpet when we do something or another and say yes we did xyz against TSP and boast. Simple - we don't talk about it (the answer is the same be it if you ask RAW officers or Army). Then look at Balochistan - its gone past the point of no return (not by our doing). How much more do you propose we do and what results is it going to have?

The scenario where there one-on-one war may be possible, but we cannot wait for that scenario only. Being on the defensive does not solve subconventional threats. The saying "sau sunaar ki to ek lauhaar ki" has no validity here. We cannot set up a very high red line which keeps on getting higher. We need to be kicking butt on a continuous basis, tightening the screws, making their noses bleed, and most of all humiliating them as much as possible.

We can also keep it cheap! Either full appeasement or MAD is a wrong proposition.


Or you could just absorb the hits and say - and what? so what? India is growing and growing and you can no longer match us in any way - be it economically, militarily etc. These bomb blasts, fake currency etc have little or no effect on our economy. Or you could fight a war that will buy peace for what... 2 or 3 years (even that is debatable as terrorists were still coming across the border after we fought kargil, did parakram) rather than spend on developing quality of peoples lives.

Then there is the additional problem of if we collapse the state of Pak - refugees are not going to go to Iran, they aren't going to Afghanistan, they'll head straight for India and we'll probably have to sort the mess out - sorry but I'd rather the people of TSP stay in TSP and I dont want a paisa of my taxes to be spent on their upkeep.

Dealing with TSP needs a different strategy. We are talking to their 3 friends - KSA, US and PRC. Its bringing some results. But they are saying - TSP create the problem and run to us to help fix it. US/PRC see TSP as a way to keep India in check. KSA wants access to their nukes and a reliable partner against Iran. So the 3 have no choice but to help. The dialogue with the 3 is bringing better results than not talking at all.

Post 2014 - I think we are heading for conflict.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 23 Feb 2013 17:26

shyamd wrote:
RajeshA wrote:Some say war can also improve economy, i.e. if there is some indigenous MIC.

Yes but we can see the economic situation in the west now - despite having a bloated MIC.


What broke their back was not the war (invasion) but the occupation.

shyamd wrote:
Indian strategists need to know how to react to subconventional warfare from Pakistan - terrorism, proxy wars, counterfeit money, Islamic propaganda, drugs, etc.

Each one of those listed deserves a seperate answer. But on terror - there is a case of paying back in kind - but look at TSP now - every day 72 reach their 72. Is any more going to change TSP strategists minds? Probably not. Last year there was a large explosion on their ISI office in Lahore taking out their K division officers (10 of 12 or something like that). Year before that there was a car bomb in the residential area of senior TSPA officers (albeit no damage was caused on purpose - but I presume it was probably a message being sent). I'm not saying India is doing this but the fact is we don't blow our trumpet when we do something or another and say yes we did xyz against TSP and boast. Simple - we don't talk about it (the answer is the same be it if you ask RAW officers or Army).

But Hafiz Saeed roams free, and Lakhvi gets the best Biryani. If we were up to these things there, they should have been taken out long time ago.

I believe you are underestimating how terror affects the people in India. I don't mean the trauma. I am talking about long term disenchantment with own state and own people. It generates a certain disgust in individuals that the state does not care about their lives. One starts feeling a loss of sense of security one gets in a group. The nation, the group ceases to be the group for which then one oneself is willing to sacrifice one's life. In the end, it does not just affect the common people but our security forces too, their morale.

All this is not directly quantifiable, but it leads to a withering of national feeling.

In some way the other needs to pay and this payment we need to extort visibly. Even if it were behind the scenes, all this taking down of Indian enemies does not do one bit of good for the national psyche.

Sure a lot more can be culled down without us taking the credit for it, if it helps bring down terrorism, but there needs to be visible retaliation also. Two years ago I suggested "Land for Terror" policy.

One may wave this aspect off as an emotional response where one needs to be thinking straight, but these "cold calculations" ignore the needs of the national psyche at one's peril. The feeling of abandonment trickles down to the local level.

This "not boasting" may sound mature, but it does not weigh in the above rationality.

shyamd wrote:
The scenario where there one-on-one war may be possible, but we cannot wait for that scenario only. Being on the defensive does not solve subconventional threats. The saying "sau sunaar ki to ek lauhaar ki" has no validity here. We cannot set up a very high red line which keeps on getting higher. We need to be kicking butt on a continuous basis, tightening the screws, making their noses bleed, and most of all humiliating them as much as possible.

We can also keep it cheap! Either full appeasement or MAD is a wrong proposition.


Or you could just absorb the hits and say - and what? so what? India is growing and growing and you can no longer match us in any way - be it economically, militarily etc. These bomb blasts, fake currency etc have little or no effect on our economy. Or you could fight a war that will buy peace for what... 2 or 3 years (even that is debatable as terrorists were still coming across the border after we fought kargil, did parakram) rather than spend on developing quality of peoples lives.

Then there is the additional problem of if we collapse the state of Pak - refugees are not going to go to Iran, they aren't going to Afghanistan, they'll head straight for India and we'll probably have to sort the mess out - sorry but I'd rather the people of TSP stay in TSP and I dont want a paisa of my taxes to be spent on their upkeep.

Dealing with TSP needs a different strategy. We are talking to their 3 friends - KSA, US and PRC. Its bringing some results. But they are saying - TSP create the problem and run to us to help fix it. US/PRC see TSP as a way to keep India in check. KSA wants access to their nukes and a reliable partner against Iran. So the 3 have no choice but to help. The dialogue with the 3 is bringing better results than not talking at all.

Post 2014 - I think we are heading for conflict.


The Paki cannot match us, either economically or militarily. That is well-known. But it is never a question of comparison. I, Indian, am rich and you're dirt poor, you Paki! From such a comparison all one gets is a little ego boost, and nothing more. The question is always, does the Paki pose a civilizational threat to us, and that remains. Be it through nuclear weapons, or be it through demographic expansion of Islam in the Indian Subcontinent. So the Paki of today cannot really measure up to us, but two generations down the line, the chaos he produced can still overwhelm us. And the Islamic core would have succeeded in taking down India.

By harping on the needs of the economy we are only kicking down the can to the next generations of Indians. Can't we build our economy while taking down this pest?

This is akin to a cancer patient who does not want to go to treatment, because that would mean he would have to take day off from work and this could cause him loss of income.

Islamic core can thrive in chaos like Somalia and they can thrive in a country like Malaysia, or Saudia Arabia. Economics is not the determinant here. The Paki people are just firewood for the Islamic core.

So why should I feel exhilarated by different economic indices between us, why should I compare myself to firewood?!

I don't think talking to PRC really helps. If we want to start solving the problem, then we should go to the Saudis and talk about Iranian Balochistan and let the Saudis bring USA on board. I put up a series of posts on this scenario.

2014 Iran too becomes a hot potato issue!

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby shyamd » 23 Feb 2013 22:01

RajeshA wrote:What broke their back was not the war (invasion) but the occupation.

Yeah but it takes time to set up govt, train and all that - which costs money,. As soon as the economy couldnt sustain the expenditure on MIC - they are cutting the budget now by $400bn over next 5 years.

But Hafiz Saeed roams free, and Lakhvi gets the best Biryani. If we were up to these things there, they should have been taken out long time ago.

Yeah so was the leader of Hamas - Sheikh Yassin until after all those years they decided to drop a bomb on him. He was roaming in a wheelchair openly going out spewing his BS. Even Nasrallah - the Israeli's knew where he was, same with Arafat in the intifada days.

In this case, Saeed and lakhvi are just puppets - its a waste of time taking them out and they'll go on a propaganda overdrive and recruit more people. Someone else will replace him. It doesn't end it. Instead I'd rather hit the people pulling the strings.

But having said all this we are keeping our hands clean for now - they are suffering a lot and taking big blows (afghans, US and Omani's doing their bit) and us adding to that won't change much. We want to bury the hatchet forever and encourage them to do business instead of fight war.

I believe you are underestimating how terror affects the people in India. I don't mean the trauma. I am talking about long term disenchantment with own state and own people. It generates a certain disgust in individuals that the state does not care about their lives. One starts feeling a loss of sense of security one gets in a group. The nation, the group ceases to be the group for which then one oneself is willing to sacrifice one's life. In the end, it does not just affect the common people but our security forces too, their morale.

All this is not directly quantifiable, but it leads to a withering of national feeling.

Maybe there is a case here and I really feel GoI natsec PR is apalling. No one understands their strategy (partly because the media is too busy and lacks the understanding - also i dont think it sells for newspapers) - this was pointed out to the NSA too in the recent IDSA conference. Terror is an attempt to break the will of the people, however I have not seen it in my personal interactions with people. I still see kids who say they want to join the forces, speak to members of the security establishment who are proud of their work. But perhaps discussing strategy in a more public fashion will help - but we don't have ego's and as you quite rightly pointed out there is no emotional decisions here - everything is cold decisions. imo i think thats a good thing..

In some way the other needs to pay and this payment we need to extort visibly. Even if it were behind the scenes, all this taking down of Indian enemies does not do one bit of good for the national psyche.

I have always said the covert option is the best - so I completely agree with you. But I know that they are trying to seriously convince TSP to stop war and do business instead. So let them try this "no war agreement" and aman-ki-asha.


One may wave this aspect off as an emotional response where one needs to be thinking straight, but these "cold calculations" ignore the needs of the national psyche at one's peril. The feeling of abandonment trickles down to the local level.

I dont think its a big enough issue yet - I think if it was an issue, I don't think people would vote INC of all groups.

The Paki cannot match us, either economically or militarily. That is well-known. But it is never a question of comparison. I, Indian, am rich and you're dirt poor, you Paki! From such a comparison all one gets is a little ego boost, and nothing more. The question is always, does the Paki pose a civilizational threat to us, and that remains.

Boss, re-read this paragraph. The fact that we continue to take broad strides economically and the average citizen has benefited in the last 10 years without war despite all sorts of provocation by TSP shows that they are not an existential threat at all. Just a little dot and thats all they will be. We don't care about what pak does and is doing.

Be it through nuclear weapons, or be it through demographic expansion of Islam in the Indian Subcontinent. So the Paki of today cannot really measure up to us, but two generations down the line, the chaos he produced can still overwhelm us. And the Islamic core would have succeeded in taking down India.

I really beg to differ on TSP. Demographic expansion of islam is a different issue.

By harping on the needs of the economy we are only kicking down the can to the next generations of Indians. Can't we build our economy while taking down this pest?

You have to take away resources from somewhere else to pay for it and then once you take them down... then what? Still a drain on our pockets coz someone has to pay to fix it once its totally broken.

This is akin to a cancer patient who does not want to go to treatment, because that would mean he would have to take day off from work and this could cause him loss of income.

I dont see it as starkly as you do. I think opportunities will present itself. Look at Bangladesh now - there is a pro indian govt who is providing us with a lot of security support - they are about to say no religion in politics and ban the jamaat. We can't just wave a wand and make extremist islam disappear. It takes time to eradicate.

In TSP we missed an opportunity last year to back a coup.

Islamic core can thrive in chaos like Somalia and they can thrive in a country like Malaysia, or Saudia Arabia. Economics is not the determinant here. The Paki people are just firewood for the Islamic core.

Yup - but don't underestimate economics - it makes a big difference.

I don't think talking to PRC really helps. If we want to start solving the problem, then we should go to the Saudis and talk about Iranian Balochistan and let the Saudis bring USA on board. I put up a series of posts on this scenario.

Yeah but they are complaining to us about TSP because TSP is giving them beatings in Xinjiang! So they are slightly receptive to have dialogue - but I emphasise only slightly.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 08 Mar 2013 20:57

Cross-Posting from "TIRP" Thread

ramana wrote:The Ottomon Turks went on agonizing over the defeat at Vienna for over two centuries and finally the Young Turks emerged. The overthrow of the Sultanate was a payback for the defeat at Vienna. The TSPA has not paid the price for the defeat in 1971 as they staged coup after coup to prevent any payback.


ramana garu,

a defeat by an Islamic Army by a Kufr Army is simply not digestible. The only refrain is that it was only a battle but the war continues. So the historical memory would simply not go away!

When the Islamic Army chants AoA. They actually think that Allah is on their side and would deliver a victory. When that does not happen, it causes massive cognitive dissonance. Everything is a theological battle for them - whose God is stronger?

That is why I am of the opinion, that TSPA should be given one thapparh (slap) after another till eternity. Every opportunity needs to be used to give thapparh! And their capacity needs to be consequently weakened.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Prem » 08 Mar 2013 23:18

The Thappar sequence must have an end, No fun leaving wounded Pig alive .

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 09 Mar 2013 00:00

Jhujar wrote:The Thappar sequence must have an end, No fun leaving wounded Pig alive .


Jhujar ji,

the Continuous Thapparh Strategy is simply another strategy, or a supplementary strategy to make them see reason, which is that Allah is not with them, and so they need not be with Allah either! Upon such reason dawning on them, of course the thapparh sequence would also reach an end.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Agnimitra » 09 Mar 2013 00:32

RajeshA wrote:the Continuous Thapparh Strategy is simply another strategy, or a supplementary strategy to make them see reason,

From a psy-ops perspective, continuous thapparhs can make the enemy ideology stabilize in a mode of covert hostility and taqiyyah, which is far more dangerous than over hostility. Rather, a sudden, crushing surprise clobbering can send them down into apathy (as seen in the aftermath of 1971).

Let them play the game of a thousands cuts. We need to play defence, and when we do strike overtly, it has to be decisive.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 18 Mar 2013 20:42

March 18 2013

India: On Friday, Chief of Army Staff General Bikram Singh warned Pakistan that there can be no military confidence-building measures (CBM) as long as Pakistan exports terrorism.

"The term CBM has got to be preceded by addressing trust deficit. You cannot talk of these things for endless years the way the things are going on. [b]You cannot afford to keep open this tap of exporting terrorism to India. You have to check that and only then we can move forward," Gen. Singh said
.


Comment: The setting for the General's remarks was the India Today Conclave 2013. Singh spoke in a session on the Army's role in nation-building. The context was the attack in Kashmir against the Central Reserve Police Force camp and Pakistan's condemnation of India for hanging a convicted terrorist.

Relative to army modernization, General Singh said that India's mountain strike corps is nearly formed. This is a special army corps for fighting along the Line of Actual Control opposite China. As a "strike corps," its mission is offensive[/b]. :mrgreen:


Pakistan: For the record. On Saturday, 16 March, an elected government completed a full five-year term of office, for the first time in Pakistan's history. In a televised farewell address to the nation, Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf said, "Despite all odds, completion of the term is an extraordinary and historic achievement." :((

Comment: An interim prime minister will be appointed by the President and manage a caretaker government until elections in May. If the electoral process proceeds without violent disruption, 2013 would mark the year of Pakistan's first transfer of power between elected governments.

This is tonight's good news, tentatively. The signature achievement of the government is that it lasted five years, according to Pakistani analysts. The economy is a wreck; inflation is 7% and rising; energy shortages are chronic; the value of the Rupee is dropping and law and order conditions are almost out of control in Karachi the largest city. :rotfl:


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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 31 Mar 2013 11:36

Cross-posting from the "TIRP" Thread

Cosmo_R wrote:
RajeshA wrote:Cosmo_R ji,

sure we are the same people, but we are the winners they are the losers, we have Ma and they have GUBO, we are healthy and they are inbred, we have our fierce independence and they are slaves! We may be the same "people", but we are not same.

There is the Bharatiya caste, and there is the Baki caste! We are two different castes! Some RAPE want to belong to Bharatiya caste, but cannot!


Rajeshji, think evolution.

We have evolved. They have not. Inbreeding keeps it all in the family.

We are now a different species. They are digging in the dirt for insects. We are looking towards the sky.

Different forks in the evolutionary road.


I tend to think of it somewhat differently - more in terms of not Two-Nation Theory, but Two-Caste Theory - the Bharatiya Caste and the Baki Caste. Each Caste is progressing according to its intrinsic memes as codified in their respective ideological genes.

My views on Varna are clear from my expositions on the Bharatiya Thread, but in this case I would like to put the Islamo-British model of caste to its maximum rhetorical use.

The more one forces the India-Pak dynamic into the Two-Caste Paradigm the more one would see the Pakis squirming. I think Pakis are even more sensitive to meaning of caste than Indians.

We should not use 'jAti' or 'varNa' in this case, but 'caste'. It will be both a case of digestion as well as excretion.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 31 Mar 2013 11:51

ISI Blackmail of USA

Cross-posting some posts from the 'TIRP' Thread

Rudradev

Rudradev wrote:
shiv wrote:
CONGRATULATIONS RUDRADEV! My compliments to you. This is EXACTLY what you said with too may people arguing against you. The Paki intel agencies can help the west keep a tab on their own agents in the west like the New York bomber. That is what Lieven says here

The help of the Pakistani intelligence services to Britain has been vital in identifying the links of these potential terrorists to groups in Pakistan, and to preventing more attacks on the UK and elsewhere in Europe. Islamabad therefore has been only a partial ally in the “war on terror”—but still a critical and irreplaceable one. For we need to remember that in the end, it is only legitimate Muslim governments and security services that can control terrorist plots on their soil. Western pressure may be necessary to push them in the right direction, but we need to be careful that this pressure does not become so overwhelming that it undermines or even destroys those governments by humiliating them in the eyes of their own people.

shiv wrote:And Lieven urges the US to give into blackmail, saying what the US ain't seen nuthin yet

This should serve as a stark reminder of just how much more Pakistan could do to help the Afghan Taliban (and other anti-Western groups) if the Pakistani state and military, or the relationship between Islamabad and Washington, were to completely fall apart. It is this terrifying outcome that present U.S. strategy in the region risks producing.

shiv wrote:Vinasha kaale vipareetha buddhi


Thank you Shiv. I had no doubt whatsoever that I'm right about this 8) Any thoughtfully considered review of the so-called "near-miss" terrorist attacks in the US since 9/11, year after year, leads to the same inescapable conclusion.

The mighty whitey US wets its starry-stripey pants whenever it thinks what might happen on its own soil, if it didn't continue to give the Pakis more and more baksheesh. That is the leash on which the ISI has managed to keep the US, through its repeatedly successful indoctrination, infiltration and facilitation of terrorists into American cities, followed by dramatic tip-offs issued to the Dept of Homeland Security, just in time to "thwart" an attack.

As long as the ISI keeps up this successful calibrated demonstration of its capacity to hurt the US, the US already knows what it needs to do to stay safe... it does not need Lievens to spell out the demand in so many words :mrgreen:



RajeshA

RajeshA wrote:If one wants to make Pakistan a problem for the whole world then the way to do it is to pay the Afghans to destroy the ISI.

Thinking in Rudradev ji's model!


venug

venug wrote:Rajesh ji, pl. don't forget the Baluchis, they want their pound of flesh too, we should rope them in.


RajeshA

RajeshA wrote:venug ji,

according to Rudradev ji, ISI is responsible both for increasing the jihadi danger to the USA as well as in giving concrete intelligence on any operations planned by jihadis, thus proving its usefulness to USA. If ISI is out of the loop, the threat to USA from AfPak trained Jihadis become REAL, as nobody then has control over the Jihadis. Then USA would have to take care of Pakistan directly.


Rudradev

Rudradev wrote:
RajeshA wrote:venug ji,

according to Rudradev ji, ISI is responsible both for increasing the jihadi danger to the USA as well as in giving concrete intelligence on any operations planned by jihadis, thus proving its usefulness to USA. If ISI is out of the loop, the threat to USA from AfPak trained Jihadis become REAL, as nobody then has control over the Jihadis. Then USA would have to take care of Pakistan directly.


Excellent point Rajesh A ji. In fact, there is proof of concept to show that things WOULD in fact work exactly as you predict.

The proof lies in the case of Abdulmuttalab, the Underwear Bomber. His attempt to blow up a Northwest Airlines aircraft in Detroit stands completely unique from most cases of jihadi terrorism attempted against the US homeland since 9/11, for an important reason: no direct connection to ISI. He was a Nigerian recruited by AQAP in Yemen, and indoctrinated/trained by an Al Qaeda cleric of American birth, Anwar Al-Awlaki.

So in contrast to the dozens of Pakis and Bangladeshis who have formed the bulk of terror "threats" against the US homeland since 9/11... which were in fact calibrated demonstrations of ISI capability, never intended to succeed... Abdulmuttalab represented a REAL threat such as you describe above.

What was the outcome? The US ordered a drone strike and, ignoring the whines of human rights types who argued that Al-Awlaki was a US citizen and deserved "due process"... they directly, personally gave Al-Awlaki his 72. Khatam! No dancing around with pots of financial and military aid, no major non-NATO ally, nothing. They knew that Al-Awlaki wasn't shadowboxing with calibrated demonstrations of capability designed to blackmail Washington for aid. They knew that he really meant to hurt the US if he could, and they took him out.

That may well be what would happen if the ISI, as you suggest, got removed from the equation. The US would begin to perceive the Paki jihadis as a genuine, immediate, lethal threat rather than a shadow-boxer's puppets. And probably take appropriate action, on a far larger scale than Al-Awlaki.

Shiv has been right all along! Total, unmitigated jihadi takeover of the Bakistani state is what is needed.


RajeshA

RajeshA wrote:Rudradev ji,

Exploring your model further ...

for a long time on BRF we were accustomed to looking for ideological differences within the TSPA. We used to differentiate them as the bearded-type and the whiskey-swirling type faujis.

As far as hate towards India is concerned, we felt, both are one and the same. But still there was this American prism which was difficult to escape, that there is indeed a difference between the two.

It seems more and more likely that the differences are not ideological but rather transactional.

1) "Bearded-Type Faujis" - do not have active dealings with USA.
2) "Whiskey-Swirling Faujis" - have an active intelligence cooperation with USA

The beards and the whiskey are basically simply for show for their US intelligence partners and needed to calibrate American ease and discomfiture. The beards in TSPA are intended to increase anxiety among the Americans, the whiskey is there to remove that anxiety.

The convincing creation and removal of anxiety of the Americans and the West and now China too is the whole business model of TSPA. TSPA would not tolerate a structural change in this capability including from America.

What ISI-branch of TSPA does is control all the resources and networks required for making good on the threat - the middlemen, the handlers, the bomb material, the tanzeem heads, the mullahs, etc. Many in the Gulf, UK and elsewhere are part of the ISI network.

So if any true believer decides to become terrorist, he is guided the whole way by ISI and its global network, and in the end often delivered into the arms of the FBI or CIA.

The whole Command & Control of this global ISI network is in Pindi and perhaps to some extent in UK/Dubai. If that were to break, the whole network unravels and becomes truly cellular and amorphous. When that happens the threat increases to the West as the chances of intelligence failure also increases especially with a whole ocean of radicalized Islamic youth. The West thinks it can continue to enjoy control over them through their friends in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Jordan and Pakistan.

I think the other thing that the West is afraid of is China taking over patronage over this Islamic alliance. Chinese footprint in the Gulf and Pakistan has increased a lot.

Of course to some extent USA is mired in their vested interests in the Middle-East. But it is also now becoming a susceptible to Islamic terrorist threat with many Muslims now spread out throughout the West, especially in Britain, so one can presume that some policies of the West, e.g. in Syria, in Iran could be a direct consequence of this blackmail.

Since Saudi Arabia provides the ideology and the money and the ISI provides the manpower and logistics, Saudis are not willing to break off their cooperation with Pakistan either. It allows the Sauds to be a big part of this blackmail of the West and thus to profit from it besides having other means of persuasion, e.g. money, investments.

What we really need to do is to provide a parallel logistics network for the Jihadis so that they can bring down the ISI CnC.

I think one reason USA was uneasy with Indian presence in Afghanistan was exactly for this reason. If we were to develop our own relations and equations with the Afghan Pushtuns, they would know how to influence the Taliban within Pakistan itself, and we could have eroded the whole ISI CnC through the "Bad Taliban". That is also one reason why the Americans were not only targeting the "Good Taliban" in AfPak but also the "Bad Taliban", even though "Bad Taliban" were not fighting US forces in Afghanistan at all, for that is in the interests of both ISI and Americans. Americans now cannot afford to have the ISI lose control over the Islamists, and the "Bad Taliban" could crack this control.

The whole Kerry-Lougar-Hermann Bill is Jizya for protection against Islamic attacks.

The funny part is that USA cannot really do anything against this monster. If they crush the head - the ISI, then the body would fall apart into milions of snakes, all with their independent heads. If they crush the body, the head would continue producing more and in fact helping Americans kill little parts of it. All the while the snake expands!

India really loses nothing by crushing the head. It is a game India would have to play alone, because everybody is on the other side, either as the threat or as the compromised.


ramana

ramana wrote:A picture is worth a thousand words etc. etc....


ramana wrote:Thanks to Shiv!

Image


Updated cartoon:

Prem wrote:Image


Looks like US cartoonists have caught on!!!


RajeshA

RajeshA wrote:ramana garu,

An interesting dynamic is that Americans are willing to feed the Sapera and let him breed more snakes, rather than crush him and have to face the snakes without Sapera's help, despite knowing about Sapera's duplicity in this game!

The cartoon is I believe wrong in that it presupposes that Americans are not aware of TSPA's treachery. It is just that Americans would rather pay jizya than go after the Islamics!

It is true that Americans use Pakis for their strategic objectives, but parallel to this also runs the constant blackmail.


Pranav

Pranav wrote:
Rudradev wrote:The proof lies in the case of Abdulmuttalab, the Underwear Bomber. His attempt to blow up a Northwest Airlines aircraft in Detroit stands completely unique from most cases of jihadi terrorism attempted against the US homeland since 9/11, for an important reason: no direct connection to ISI.


The 3 most important aspects of the Underwear bomber case are -

(1) The "well-dressed" man who pulled strings to put Abdulmuttalab onto the plane in Amsterdam, even without a passport. This man is probably a bigger fish than Abdulmuttalab himself
(2) The way in which this man was subsequently totally ignored by the US mainstream media, so much so that most folks are quite ignorant of him.
(3) The Headley-like manner in which US agencies had been given multiple warnings about Abdulmuttalab, long before the bombing incident.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umar_Farouk_Abdulmutallab

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 02 Apr 2013 21:15

TSP is clearly on a path to self-induced instability.
India should do nothing that halts the progress along this path.
If at all India should manage the accelerated instability in TSP.

The big impediments for India to do nothing are
- the self deluded elite in Indian political parties who seek Nobull prizes and
- US interests to preserve this Islumist hellhole due to oil dependence on KSA and their pro-Israel stance in Middle East.

With the discovery of fracking and abundant supply of natural gas, hopefully the US can wean away its oil dependence from KSA.

Thats still leaves the Tallyrandean quest for stability.

At same time the current trajectory of instability in TSP is irreversable. No amount of Indian appeasement will keep them stable.

And as Indian economy grows the carrot and stick hopefully at the wrong ends can induce a change in Eurocentric outlook.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RoyG » 02 Apr 2013 21:31

ramana wrote:TSP is clearly on a path to self-induced intability.
India whould do nothing that halts the progress along this path.
If at all India should manage the accelarated instability in TSP.

The big impediments for India to do nothing are the slef deluded elite in Indian political parties who seek Nobull prizes and US interests to preserve this Islumist hellhole due to oil dependence on KSA and their pro-Israel stance in Middle East.
With the discovery of frackign and abundant supply of natural gas, hopefully the uS can wean away its oil dependence from KSA.

Thats still leaves the Tallyrandean quest for stability.

At same time the current trajecotry of instability in TSP is irreversable. No amount of Indian appeasement will keep them stable.

And as Indian economy grows the carrot and stick hopefully at the worng ends can induce a change in Eurocentric outlook.


Yeah, what's new? We've been hearing this sort of talk since the late 80's. Pakistan is a jelly state and will survive as long as China and Saudi Arabia are around and they have nuclear weapons. US reserves are only expected to last a decade at the current rate of consumption and they need a presence in the Middle East to ensure that the almighty dollar reins supreme.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 02 Apr 2013 21:40

You tell me whats new!

Meanwhile X-post...
Cosmo_R wrote:@RajeshA: ^^^: "...India should team up with Afghani Pushtuns and run the biggest, most vicious Jihadi network in the Subcontinent"

A slight variation. If the objective is to harness the violence of the Pashtuns and direct it, then it is better to work through the mullah outsourcers who are equal opportunity aggregators of suicidal young men. For them it's money not ideology.

That said, nobody can control these guys and eventually it blows up in one's own face every time.

A more subtle approach is to fan the flames of Pashtun nationalism. That would go beyond the Durand Line issue because Pashtuns are a majority now Baluchistan and increasingly in Karachi.

The pakis know the Pashtun time bomb is there and that is why they've sought to bring them under the banner of Islam (One Ring to bind them all...).

In the short run IMHO, the antidote to the Jihadis is Pashtun nationalism. These guys need a sense of victim hood to nurse a grudge—any grudge.

Turn the focus on to oppression by the pakjabis.



Cosmo_Rji may be its happening without any Indian help?

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 02 Apr 2013 21:44

CRamS wrote:
Bheeshma wrote:Both uneven cohen and reidel are retards that no one in Delhi takes seriously. Pakistan is in a race to civil war India can wait and watch or act and accelerate the process.


I respectfully disagree. For us long-time India-TSP-US watchers, several things are clear:

1. No Indian govt, BJP bluster aside or eunuch/RNI Cong, is going to take TSP head on when it comes to terror, and both (recall Vajpayee's inviting MushRat to Agra) believe India must "do more" to induce TSP good behavior. (And the reasons for this are plenty, TSP's India specific nukes are one thing, but Indian Muslims and vote bank politics are a key factor in India's TSP policy)

2. US does not want TSP to fail (they need TSP as an India balancer) which would be the natural course without US lifeline. And in achieving this objective, TSP terror against India is considered "local" and not "global" and hence passe. (Note, the respectable tone that Uneven exudes in talking about TSP, TSP's state sponsorship of terror does not even figure in his narrative).

3. Many Indian elites, at least those with money and power do not have the courage nor the wherewithal nor the brains to challenge #1 and #2. (As an example, consider that ToiLet monkey who interviewed Uneven and couldn't summon the blood brains to put one tough question to Uneven. India media is filled with such filth).

Uneven has the right pulse on "South Asia". And the entire New Delhi elite will do shastaanga namaskaram to this scum bag. We nationalists, and a very minuscule tiny fraction of Indians may not like it, we can see through the fraud, we can cry and howl till will turn blue, but thats the reality, too bad. Our only hope is TSP itself self destructs before it destroys India despite all the support it is getting from all and sundry.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 02 Apr 2013 22:45

RoyG wrote:
........
Yeah, what's new? We've been hearing this sort of talk since the late 80's. Pakistan is a jelly state and will survive as long as China and Saudi Arabia are around and they have nuclear weapons. US reserves are only expected to last a decade at the current rate of consumption and they need a presence in the Middle East to ensure that the almighty dollar reins supreme.



A lot has changed since the 80's.

There is only one superpower and that too is limping from 9/11 and its aftermath.

In Middle East there is no Baathist Iraq and that has exposed Wahabi KSA to Shia Iran. Nasserite Egypt is no more. Its under MB rule now.

If US acts against Iran it will make Sunni Arabs even more powerful. So there will be managed instability for while in ME. IOW the "wells of power" are unstable any way.

Its clear except to the most idiotic morons that TSP used Wahabi Islamist Arabs to stage 9/11. The result of the US invasion of Taliban Afghanistan and the escape of the Taliban dual virus* to TSP has taken the instability inside TSP and is eating the host.

* I said this before eslewhere. Islam has always had a Janus face: Ethnic Nationalism vs Islamism. The examples of former are the displacement of early Arab usurpers by Persians and later Ottomon Turks and the replacement of Turks by Mughals in India etc. All these are ethnic nationalist assertions in the Muslim world. Even original Pakistan is a Pakjab, Muslim Bengali, Sindhi and other nationalist assertions under the toe nation umbrella. After 1971, Pakistan adopted Islamist identity (Nazare-ya-Pakistan) as ethnic nationalism was found to be insufficient.

Islamism is the original dogma of the Arabs after Islam was founded and was revived by the British to overthrow the Ottomons and was nurtured by US against the FSU. And this remained as AlQ in its various forms all over the WANA and even in SE Asia. Islamism at its core is based on Arab primacy in Islamist society. By same token Islamism has taken over from Arab Nationalism in Egypt.


Taliban is dual virus:its based in Pashtun nationalism and Deobandi Islamism.
The latter meme led to their adulation for OBL. When it entered TSP it led to the rise of Pakiban type Pashtun identity in the border regions. These are dubbed 'bad Taliban' where as by deeds its the so called 'good Taliban' who are the bad and TSP the ugly Islamists!


The US still wants to preserve the Ugly for their use against FSU and India. And India has willing elite in INC and BJP that wants to be self deluded about US and TSP. Hence all these piss moves and Aman ki Tamasha ventures.


My take is do nothing that keeps the TSP state strong.

If possible accelerate the instability in TSP.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 02 Apr 2013 22:52

Good X-Post...
johneeG wrote:
Cosmo_R wrote:Tarek Fatah is no different Irfan Husain or Kamran Shafi or even our own MJAkbar. All 'moderates' who bemoan radical Islam and partition but are closet Mughalistas. Undivided India under Muslim rule is their utopia.


+108. Very succinctly put. These people seem to want to have their cake(Malsi) and eat it too(no green on green) and also dream of ghazwa-e-hind.

Essentially, these people seem to want a reformation of Malsi. What kind of reformation? A reformation where the sharia is not insisted upon, where one need not grow beard or wear short pyjamas, where one need not insist on hijab, where one can swill whisky(if one wants to)...etc. In short, they want the Malsi to learn from west(and its EJs) and become 'sophisticated', instead of being 'crude'.

These kind of reforms do not in anyway divert from the ghazwa-e-hind. And it does not change anything as far as Kaffirs are concerned. These reforms are only to make the life of the followers of Malsi easy and bearable(particularly the elite ones, who can afford to have comforts). Generally, these privileges are already bestowed upon the elites in all the lands where Malsi is dominant. The elites are free to indulge in whatever their fancies are, as long as they pretend to be pious in public. But, in Pakiland(fortress of Malsi), this trend is changing. In pakiland, strict adherence to Malsi principles is being demanded from various quarters. This phenomenon is more pronounced in Pakiland, but is certainly not limited to that place alone.

There has been a steady and gradual increase in demands for more adherence to purest form of Malsi. The problem is compounded by the fact that there is disagreement on the purest form of Malsi. And this is not really new. It started long back as soon as the Mughals came.

brihaspati wrote:^^^The Mughals provided second of the two fronts within Indian Islamism. The previous period was a single front with intra-front competition for leadership. To a large extent the mughals were the late arrivals, the neo-converts - who retained their west-Turkmenistan+pre-Islamic Persian + Indo-Buddhist-CAR-pagan threads.

Its the kind of frontal conflict between two sides in Islam, that arises when one front is a late-convert and is unable to completely relinquish pre-Islamic foundations. This was the conflict that created BD. In a way, the Mughal-TurkoAfghan competition destroyed the power basis of Arabic Islam in India.

Neither came with "sympathies" or identifications with pre-Islamic India. The Mughals by successfully centralizing Islamic control over much of India, thereby denuded it of resources, destroyed the economy eventually - and cleared the way for Brit takeover.

Link to original post

Both Mughals and Sultanate were equally bad as far as the Kaffirs are concerned. But, there is an internal conflict of ideas.

Mughals represent late-converts who want to retain some of the features that are not related to Malsi. They are the ones who do not want to follow Malsi in letter(like beard, pyjama, whisky), but they want to follow it in spirit(Ghazwa-e-hind).

Sultanate represents the other side who want to follow the Malsi both in letter and spirit.

Sultanate(early-converts) where replaced by the Mughals(late-converts). This created curious reaction. It gave rise to people like Sirhindi(during Akbar's time) and Waliullah. These people not only insisted on Malsi, but went ahead and made it more dictatorial and tyrannical(yes, they actually made the theory even more strict, because the practice was not up to the mark in their perception).

It does not mean that Mughals were benevolent towards the Kaffirs. Absolutely not. The jihad was on(with Rajputs, Vijayanagara, and later Sikhs and Marathas). But, it did not meet the high expectations of the people like Sirhindi and Waliullah.

So, there are two strains:
a) Hard version(hard on followers)
b) Soft version(soft on followers)

Both versions are vicious towards infidels and unbelievers within.

Should one follow the letter or spirit? That is the debate. The rest all(particular jihad) is same same only. Hard version insists on adherence to letter. The insistence on letter translates it into insistence on sharia. Soft version wants to adhere merely to spirit. Insistence on spirit means they can be hypocritical in their personal lives(beliefs), but do pious(jihad of Kaffirs) deeds in larger Malsi structure.

Sirhindi and Waliullah are the forerunners of the modern day Malsi(particularly in Sub-continent or South Asia, as the western media likes to call). The modern Pakiland is born from this strain of Malsi. The talibs also are the inheritors of this strain. They are goading the rulers, just as Sirhindi and Waliullah had done during earlier times.

Though the pakiland was born from the hard strain, the leadership was always by the Mughali ones(soft strain). People like Tarek(and the entire pakjabi elites) represent the Mughals(soft strain). The Mughals liked to enjoy themselves with their whiskies and all other pleasures. They also had to make some compromises due to geo-political realities to make their empire survive. The modern day pakjabi elites want to replicate the Mughals.

Both sides(hard and soft) have the same attitude towards the Kaffir. The difference is in how the green on green should be handled.

What is happening right now: The last strong emperor of Mughals, Aurangzeb, had to accept the hard version of Malsi, so that his rule was acknowledged by the followers of Malsi. In the short run, this saved the empire from dismantling into smaller fiefdoms and also allowed Aurangzeb to remain the ruler. In the long run, it made the Kaffirs take up active revolution against the Mughal rule. It resulted in creation of Maratha and Sikh empires.

The action of Aurangzeb was not out of blue. The hard version of Malsi was slowly being accepted by the Mughals. It seems to me that Babar was much more un-malsi like in his personal beliefs, then the later Mughal ones. Each successive generation of Mughal rulers had to accept and acknowledge that hard version was the pure version(and had to pretend to follow it). This phenomenon reached its zenith with Aurangzeb. And the hard version also became more and more hardened.

The same game is being played out in pakiland. It is like the rule of Aurangzeb right now. No more pretensions are being allowed. Absolute insistence on letter. This is allowing the nation to survive as single entity, for now.

People like Tarek want to reverse the whole thing and go back to the beautiful days when Kaffirs alone were hunted, while enjoying whiskey. Of course, if we see history, it is not possible. The soft version(the diluted version) always loses to the purer version.

It seems to me that Malsi today is much more purer than it was, when it started out. The definition of 'pure' in Malsi culture is the most narrow-minded and hard-core interpretation. So, the one who comes up with most narrow-minded and hard-core interpretation has the upper hand. Then, based on this interpretation, they can demand the elimination of all 'munafiqs'.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Agnimitra » 03 Apr 2013 22:44

Poll: Pakistani Youth Disenchanted with Democracy
A larger number of young Pakistanis believe the country should be governed by Islamic law or military rule rather than democracy, according to a survey released Wednesday, weeks before historic national elections.

Pakistan is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on May 11 — the first transition between democratically elected governments in a country that has experienced three military coups and constant political instability since its creation in 1947. The parliament’s ability to complete its five-year term has been hailed as a significant achievement.

But a survey by the British Council found that young Pakistanis — defined as those between the ages of 18 and 29 — have grown more pessimistic about the future over this period, as the country has struggled with a weak economy, high inflation, pervasive energy shortages and a deadly Taliban insurgency.

About 94 percent of young Pakistanis believe the country is going in the wrong direction, compared with 86 percent in 2009, the study found. Less than a quarter believe democracy has benefited themselves or their families.

Given these figures, it is perhaps not surprising to find relatively low levels of support for democracy among the youth. Only 29 percent of young Pakistanis believe democracy is the best political system for the country, according to the poll.
...

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 26 Apr 2013 19:08

Who said Cricket Spirit cannot help solve Pakistan?

First posted by Bharath.Subramanyam in "Afghanistan News & Discussion" Thread

Published on Apr 21, 2013
By Yoshita Sengupta
More power to IPL in Afghanistan: Daily News and Analysis

Almost every household in the country goes to extraordinary lengths to watch matches.

Rizwan Ull-Hayat doesn’t think twice before tanking up the generator. It’s the night his favourite Indian Premier League (IPL) team, Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR), will take to the field. And he doesn’t want to miss seeing his favourite players in action for even a second; not even an erratic power supply could play spoilsport.

Ull-Hayat could easily pass off as just another Indian bitten by the IPL mania bug. Except that the 23-year-old lives in Nangarhar province of Afghanistan.

For a country — and its people — who are still in the process of rebuilding themselves after over 30 years of war, IPL is the stuff that dreams are made of.

Shafiqullah Asmat Stanikzai, the Afghanistan cricket team’s manager, claims that “almost every person” in the country is glued to the TV set each time an IPL match plays out.

Ali Ahmed Darwish, 26, a manager in an oil company in Kabul, suggests a more modest figure. “Almost 80% of Afghans watch the IPL religiously. We have even managed to get a satellite TV connection at work to watch the afternoon matches.”

In other parts of Afghanistan, fans like Ull-Hayat raise the zeal up a notch. “Everybody here (Nangarhar) watches the matches and since the power supply is not regular, all of us arrange for enough oil just before a match to run our generators till the end of the game,” explains Ull-Hayat, who works as a finance manager at a company in Nangarhar, casually, like it’s no effort at all.

Darwish agrees. “Kabul is the only city where there is a regular power supply. I know so many people in other places who watch matches through fuel-run generators.”

And on days when even the generators fail, some fans head to a neighbour’s house or get an over-by-over update from friends or relatives through mobile phones.

Who are they cheering?
KKR seems to be the toast of the nation. But the fondness has more to do with team owner and Bollywood actor Shahrukh Khan's Pathan lineage (his paternal grandfather was from Afghanistan) than the line-up of players.

Another team, Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB), has begun to slowly gain popularity, riding on the shoulders of one player — Chris Gayle. “I really wish they (RCB) win this time. But before that, I wish I could go to India, watch them thrash Chennai and avenge the recent defeat,” says Sohail Yusufzai, 23, from Kabul.

The opinion is divided within the national cricket team. While the manager is rooting for KKR, he says each team player’s preference differs on the basis of whom he looks up to in the Indian squad. The wicketkeeper-batsman, for example, is rooting for Chennai Super Kings just because he is an ardent fan of captain MS Dhoni.

Why the fuss over IPL?
Love for Indian actors and cricketers apart, the IPL craze is fuelled by the belief that it is a way out of a despondent state of affairs in a war-ravaged country. Under the Taliban rule, sports were banned.

“Afghans love Indian cricketers, from Rahul Dravid to Dhoni. Our players watch almost every match and they want to be part of the IPL,” says Stanikzai. “We’re in desperate need of help to change the face of the game in our country, which we’ve sought from the BCCI (Board of Control for Cricket in India). We look up to the Indians and we’ll be grateful if the BCCI backs us the way Ireland and Scotland are backed by the ECB (England and Wales Cricket Board).”

To most Afghans, the smallest chance of seeing their players in the IPL simply offers a ray of hope for putting their lives back together.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 26 Apr 2013 19:10

Who said Cricket Spirit cannot help solve Pakistan?

Cross-posting from "Afghanistan News & Discussion" Thread

Why the fuss over IPL?

Love for Indian actors and cricketers apart, the IPL craze is fuelled by the belief that it is a way out of a despondent state of affairs in a war-ravaged country. Under the Taliban rule, sports were banned.

“Afghans love Indian cricketers, from Rahul Dravid to Dhoni. Our players watch almost every match and they want to be part of the IPL,” says Stanikzai. “We’re in desperate need of help to change the face of the game in our country, which we’ve sought from the BCCI (Board of Control for Cricket in India). We look up to the Indians and we’ll be grateful if the BCCI backs us the way Ireland and Scotland are backed by the ECB (England and Wales Cricket Board).”

To most Afghans, the smallest chance of seeing their players in the IPL simply offers a ray of hope for putting their lives back together.


Now this is really worth following! Pakistanis are kept out of IPL but Afghan players get to compete! That would be such a wicked Thapparh on Pakistan, they will cry every time and still watch IPL to try to forget their own despondency! :lol:

JE Menon wrote:Fantastic idea... I hope Afghan players are purchased next year at the auction.


JE Menon saar,

If Afghans start playing in IPL, when Taliban returns to Afghanistan and they start closing down on sports and TV, the Taliban would be in a rude shock. They will get an insurgency of cricket fans against them!

Cricket craze is a great way of ensuring that TVs and Satellite Dishes in Afghanistan are not banned, and through them Afghanistan continues to receive entertainment programming from India.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 03 May 2013 10:30

Solving Pakistan: Solution 13

Currency War

Published on May 02, 2013
Ansar Burney demanded Rs. 25 cr for Sarabjit Singh's release?: India Today

Sarabjit Singh's sister Dalbir Kaur on Thursday accused Pakistani human rights activist Ansar Burney of being a 'fraud' and said had she paid "Rs. 25 crore to Burney, Sarabjit would have returned to India."

Kaur alleged that Burney had demanded Rs. 25 crore to help Sarabjit. "Had I paid Rs. 25 crore to Ansar Burney, Sarabjit would have returned to India. I am poor so could not pay him. Burney had told me that at least pay Rs. 2 crore to get Sarabjit. He told him that if I will give him the money in the morning, Sarabjit will be released by evening," she alleged.
The allegation are startling as Burney has been over the years pleading for clemency to Sarabjit. After the assault, he said to a news channel from Karachi: "The attack looks suspicious. Someone could be behind this. No bricks or other material can reach the place where Sarabjit had been kept. This must be thoroughly investigated".

Burney, who frequently visits jails across Pakistan to take up the issues of inmates, described the section of Kot Lakhpat Jail where Sarabjit was being held as a "jail within a jail".

However, Ansar Burney has refuted all the allegations and tweeted, "I was shocked to hear nonsense & false accusation by Dalbeer Kaur, sister of Sarbajit Singh, I was the one who helped her every time."

"How can I ask for any demand from a lady from whom even I have never asked for a cup of tea and for whose family I was helping on humanity," he said.


What is obvious is that there are enough Pakis in Pakistan willing to "help" the outside world if the price is right! I think we should start helping Pakis to "help" the outside world. All they need is some money, right?

So here is how to do it!

Pakistan has been a huge source of counterfeit Indian money, which they smuggle in through various channels, often over Nepal, and they use the money to pay their agents in India, and to finance terrorism.

It is wrong to think in terms of what impact this counterfeit money has on our economy. It probably doesn't make too much of an impact. We should think of what impact it makes on promoting Pakistan-e-Nazariya, Islamic extremism, Jihadism, Ashrafism, etc. in India. There the impact could be substantial. Supporting a network of Pakistan supporters in India costs much money, but all of that can be financed through counterfeit money and does not need hard and real cash. That is a big help to Pakistani establishment.

So of course India should move to make all big currency bills in India counterfeit-proof.

Other than that, what however India can do is to pay Pakistan in the same! We too should print Pakistan currency bills and push Pakistani counterfeit money across the border.

In fact we should be distributing fake Pakistani currency in large amounts to the Pushtuns living along the Durand Line.

What better way of supporting the Afghans than this? We should give them real purchasing power and help trade along the Durand Line!

At the same time we should push Pakistan to accept MFN status for India, which would allow India to export food stuff and other things to Pakistan. Pakistanis should pay us in dollars, not the fake ones, but real currency.

Then the Afghans should be able to buy this stuff using fake Pakistani currency. Not just this, they would be able to buy a lot of stuff from Pakjab too. Also the Afghans can buy up the hard currency in Pakistan, which comes from the remittances of Pakistanis working so hard abroad.

Of course for this largehearted help from India, the Pushtuns along the Durand Line would also be favorably disposed to "helping" out India to solve some of the tricky problems we have with Pakistan, e.g. Pakistan establishment-sponsored terrorism in India.

Thus we come to an old solution - of opening Supari Plantations in AfPak region! [1] [2] [3] [4].

While we at it, we can of course also buy the freedom of Indian prisoners languishing in Pakistani jails courtesy of such human rights activists like Mr. Burney! But let's use counterfeit Pakistani currency to do this.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Agnimitra » 04 May 2013 03:36

In this discussion in India, Tarek Fatah wants to re-define the India-Pakistan struggle as an ideological/civilizational struggle rather than one between nation-states.
In another talk somewhere else he mentions that the protesters at Shahbagh (BD) look to India for support, but there is a massive demonstration in Kolkata in support of BD Islamists. He says this is ironic.

"Not Calling Me An Indian Is An Insult To Me" - Tarek Fatah Bum Raps A Leftist



The only thrust of the Leftist Pinko's argument is to accuse Fatah of being in league with the RSS and American neo-Cons.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 06 May 2013 20:56

Solving Pakistan: Solution 8 (Cont.)

Close the Paki Factory

Cross-posting from the "Indian Interests" Thread

Atri wrote:We need more ladies in dharmik fold, especially in north and center.. RajeshA ji's model of bringing wives from TSP into Hindu families should be pursued by any nationalistic government. Aman ki asha can be used in this way, if steered properly.. the 2011 census data is not very encouraging..


Instead of Samjhota Express, we should try a Pakeezah Express! :wink:

Actually it would not be bad if there are considerations of Jāti in any match-making! It keeps the connection strong and the Pakeezah would be much more willing to fit in.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 09 Apr 2014 03:11

X-Post...

Jhujar wrote:Resetting relations with neighbours
Miskeen, Bhangi Ajlaf Dreaming Ashrafiat:Nauqar Dreaming Maliki

Our rivalry with India is rooted in several factors, foremost being the unresolved issue of Kashmir, lingering fear of its hegemonic designs and competing views of nationalism. Besides, Pakistan’s use of asymmetric forces to countervail India’s economic and military preponderance led to India’s contention that Pakistan breeds and exports terrorism. This perception was exploited after 9/11 and got deeply embedded in the Indian psyche after the Mumbai terrorist attack that is alleged to be masterminded by the LeT and secretly supported by elements in the establishment. Nuclear rivalry is another source of tension and distrust.
Despite Pakistan’s sincere efforts to allay Afghanistan’s misgivings, deep distrust characterises the relationship. Kabul refuses to accept the Durand line as the international boundary. The Afghan perception is that Islamabad pursues a dual policy of seeking good relations, while supporting the Taliban directly or discreetly. Unless the insurgency in Afghanistan subsides, Pakistan will remain a villain in the eyes of Afghans. India’s growing influence in Afghanistan, especially close links between their militaries and intelligence agencies, further complicates matters.Interestingly, Iran and Pakistan consider each other rivals as well as partners in the region. Relations frequently run into trouble with Tehran blaming Islamabad for not being able to contain sectarian violence and not managing the border efficiently. Pakistan could become a battleground for proxy wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Another major area of divergence with Tehran is that both see each other supporting rival groups in Afghanistan. Prospects of a breakthrough between the US and Iran on the nuclear issue will hopefully provide relief for Pakistan. A classic demonstration of this indecisiveness is reflected in the way our governments have been vacillating on the Iran gas pipeline project. Moreover, permanent nuclear agreement between the US and Iran could invite the ire of Saudi Arabia with consequences for Pakistan.



If this continues expect Iran to destabilize TSP to reduce KSA power.
Iran has contiguous border with Balochistan. And thats the pathway to Sindh which is Shia majority.

I think new ways fro TSP to fail are opening with Allah's blessings despite Surrender Singh's magnificient efforts to keep them afloat.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby SSridhar » 09 Apr 2014 05:55

Though the Islamic Republics of Iran & Pakistan had often come together against the Kafir India, the murderous anti-Shi'a programme that is now well established in Pakistan and whose intensity will only increase in coming months and years has already irreversibly affected the Iran-Pakistan relationship. The increasing proximity between KSA and Pakistan in Syria, with KSA taking advantage of the latter's dire economic situation, will further set the Iran-Pakistan relationship apart.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 09 Apr 2014 06:01

I don't care for their relatiosnhip. I want them to support the Balochs to get back at KSA.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby SSridhar » 09 Apr 2014 08:48

Looking at the Shi'a history and the presence of Sunni Baluchis in the Sistan-Baluchistan province of Iran, I doubt if the Iranians would go all out to do that.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 09 Apr 2014 09:00

Iran now has expertise developed in Lebanon and Syria to stunt and maim their opponents. If US drawdown occurs and or Syria hots up expect Iran movement in TSP.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2014 14:52

#SaveBSOAzadLeader ‏@Zarina_Baloch 4h
I,m Requesting For #India Peoples Please Vote For Modi Je #SelfieWithModi #AbkibaarModiSarkaar Modi Je is Good leader,s Modi Plz Help Baloch

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Agnimitra » 07 May 2014 08:05

X-post from STFU-Pak thread:

Agnimitra wrote:Blogpost by Omar Ali has this:
Here is my summary of who may be in a position to save us if the Pak army fails (I sincerely pray to Allah that they do NOT fail)

Punjab can only be saved by the Khalsa.
Pakhtoons can only be saved by Afghanistan.
The Baloch can only be saved by China (i.e. if the Chinese switch sides)
The Sindhis can only be saved by? ...India? I dunno. I await input on this one.

Interesting that he doesn't see "Khalsa" as part of the Indian family.


Paul wrote:It is Punjabi nationalism. They want to remerge the two Punjabs, fall back on their east Punjabi brethren as a fall back option.


Jhujar wrote:This was predicted 4 years ago. They wont to Hindus but ask Sikhs to rescue them . Too much water gone down the Satlej with Hindus. Beseeching the Khalsa proterction they think save their face. Paki still distinguish their "win"in 71 among General Arora, Jacob and Shaw. They did not want to be seen surrendering to Jew, Christian or Hindus.


Agnimitra wrote:That's right. Also points to special significance of the 10 Gurus' creation.

Anyway, when Omar Ali was asked for clarification on teetar, he said this:

Image

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 21 May 2014 03:10

Continuing from "STFU Pakistan" Thread

Jhujar wrote:http://tribune.com.pk/story/710880/the-real-threat-from-namo/
The real threat from NaMo
As a Pakistani, my concern is not that Modi will be nasty to India’s Muslims. My concern is that he will continue to dismantle the sclerotic legacy of Nehruvian socialism and in turn vault the Indian economy to an even bigger lead ahead of Pakistan than it has now. I am, of course, happy for the prosperity that my Indian neighbours will enjoy if Modi succeeds. I am just afraid of my own country being left behind. We are not exactly good at dealing with economic resentment.To their credit, the Nawaz leadership has avoided the kind of populist rhetoric that has been all too evident in the media. The prime minister himself appears dedicated to improving ties with India, in particular economic ties.As the two countries move the dialogue forward, it will be important for Pakistani negotiators to focus on our core economic strengths. That means acknowledging that as trade opens up with India, some industries will benefit while others may suffer or even perish. As Modi takes office, Pakistanis should focus on the economic opportunity his inauguration represents, not any potential impact on civil liberties in India it may have. We do not exactly stand on the moral high ground when it comes to the treatment of minorities.


Actually Indian Govt. needs to only favor only a couple of Pakistani industries, which are in Army hands, let's say cement. In return India can get all sorts of market segments in Pakistan for Indian goods - manufactured goods, textiles, processed food, vehicles, etc. thus basically killing all local Pakistani industry as well as the skill sets.

Then if one day India chooses to stop cement imports, then Pakistan is left with neither industry nor a customer for their cement.

Key is to give some market concession to the power brokers in Pakistan in return of letting India have them as captive markets.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RoyG » 21 May 2014 03:20

It's only a matter of time before the Iranians are at our doorsteps through the Shias of Balochistan. They are ultimately our enemies as well, although they many times less virulent than the Sunni strain. We may have to play games to ensure that the Balochis remain independent should Pakistan balkanize. Keeping the iranians at low grade war with the sunnis will play to our advantage. The russians are already drifting away from us and will ultimately side with the chinese and iranians to counter nato.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Prem » 21 May 2014 03:26

Shut Cement Import( Build Cement Factories in Iraq & Kurdistan)
Shut Cotton Export to Paw Kiss Thaan. Subsidize Indian export to kill PKST' export
Covert Opeation at Sea to Sink their export shit

Best Decision recent GOI to share Afghanistan Defence Expenditure. The idea originated"hare" at this forum.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 29 Oct 2014 11:21

Continuing from "Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan - 10 Oct 2014" Thread

Jhujar wrote:Abb Terra kya Hogga paakiyya

London- British Prime Minister David Cameron has reiterated that the United Kingdom wanted deeper ties with India while also making it aptly clear that his government would never interfere in the highly vexed Kashmir issue.The Conservative Party leader was today quoted as saying to a TV news channel,“We are two great democracies that face many of the same challenges. We need more economic growth; we need more investment in trade. We both have to fight extremism and terrorism. These are shared challenges that Britain and India should face together."The British Prime Minister, who is seeking re-election in the 2015 polls, also sought to woo the vast Indian population living in UK by calling for greater ties between the two countries.Cameron indicated that Britain did not intend to intervene in the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan by saying, "It is the engagement between the two nations and that was for these countries to lead these debates on this issue and not for others to interfere."


As long as Indian Establishment used to look up to Mama Britannia for affirmation and was peeved when Mama Britannia used to show preference to its other child, Pakistan, so long, Britain could play this role of massaging Pakistan's ego and have both Soothe Asian nations come running to its porch. Pakistan too treats UK as one of its four fathers, and likes to compete with Secular India there for parental love.

With Narendra Modi in power, the danger for UK is that it be taken by the collar and be pushed up a wall for its past deeds, and in fact be shown its smallness and irrelevance for all to see. So UK is quick to wash off its hands over its past policy of getting such a large diplomatic say on the Indian Subcontinent on the cheap.

No matter what shenanigans UK indulges in in the background and whatever logistical and strategic support Pakistan receives from UK clandestinely, at least UK would now desist from supporting Pakistan publicly and would be a lot more forthcoming on India's concerns.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Supratik » 29 Oct 2014 11:53

Baloch are overwhelmingly Sunni.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 01 Nov 2014 08:55

To put things in historical context

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconquista

Nineteenth and much of twentieth-century Spanish and Portuguese historiography stressed the existence of a continuous phenomenon by which the Christian Iberian kingdoms opposed and conquered the Muslim kingdoms understood as a common enemy from the early eighth century to the late fifteenth century.[1] However, the ideology of a Christian reconquest of the peninsula started to take shape at the end of the 9th century.[2]

A landmark was set by the Christian Chronica Prophetica (883-884), a document stressing the Christian and Muslim cultural and religious divide in Iberia and the necessity to drive the Muslims out. However, Christian and Muslim rulers commonly became divided and fought amongst themselves. Co-existence and alliances between Muslims and Christians were as prevalent as frontier skirmishes and raids, especially in the earlier periods.[2] Blurring distinctions even further were the mercenaries from both sides who simply fought for whoever paid the most.

The Crusades, which started late in the eleventh century, bred the religious ideology of a Christian reconquest, confronted at that time with a similarly staunch Muslim Jihad ideology in Al-Andalus: the Almoravids and even to a greater degree, in the Almohads. In fact previous documents (10-11th century) are mute on any idea of "reconquest".[3] Propaganda accounts of Muslim-Christian hostility came into being to support that idea: most notably the Chanson de Roland, a highly mythical 12th-century French re-creation of the Battle of Roncevaux Pass (778) dealing with the Iberian Saracens and taught unquestioned in the French educational system as of 1880.[4][5]



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