Bharat Rakshak Forum Announcement

Hello Everyone,

A warm welcome back to the Bharat Rakshak Forum.

Important Notice: Due to a corruption in the BR forum database we regret to announce that data records relating to some of our registered users have been lost. We estimate approx. 500 user details are deleted.

To ease the process of recreating the user IDs we request members that have previously posted on the BR forums to recognise and identify their posts, once the posts are identified please contact the BRF moderator team by emailing BRF Mod Team with your post details.

The mod team will be able to update your username, email etc. so that the user history can be maintained.

Unfortunately for members that have never posted or have had all their posts deleted i.e. users that have 0 posts, we will be unable to recreate your account hence we request that you re-register again.

We apologise for any inconvenience caused and thank you for your understanding.

Regards,
Seetal

Managing Pakistan's failure

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 06 Nov 2014 14:56

At the time of Partition Pakistan was called the "Laboratory of Islam".

This means all Pakistanis are Lab Rats, Guinea Pigs and Test Monkeys. Now if the Lab Rats get lesions, become blind, hysterical, mad, die, go up in smoke, or smash their heads together, it doesn't mean that Islamic Research is not making progress.

Lab Rats have neither rights, nor a future, nor an expectation on the researcher to go easy on them. They are there to die, in all the various ways possible.

In that way, Pakistan has been a brilliant success.

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 07 Nov 2014 12:26

Cross-Posting a post by Raja Ram from "Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan - 10 Oct 2014" Thread

shiv,

I have been giving a lot of thought on your writings over the last few days and I believe that you were one of the first people to zero in on one simple fact - the artificial entity's survival or demise is not something that is an outcome of what the artificial entity called Pakistan does or does not do. It is more of what its benefactors do or not do with regard to Pakistan. In that sense, should India's strategic objective be more towards doing whatever is necessary to Pakistan to push it to its logical conclusion which is the dissolution of the artificial entity? Or should it acknowledge the reality that what it does or does not do with Pakistan is not the key but what it does with the benefactors will have a greater outcome?

These questions are playing on my mind for a few days now. Of course, I am no expert when it comes to these things like your or SSridhar saar, but I have been reading up some of the old books and articles on the policy of RN Kao - "Let them stew in their Own Juice" doctrine that India adopted along with the speech Shri Doval made at SASTRA University where he classified options broadly into Defensive, Defensive Offence and Offence when it comes to response to Pakistani strategy. It made me think if institutionally GOI and our political leadership have been far more realistic in their assessments than they have been given credit for.

India probably has long decided that they have to work towards a long attrition battle across multiple fronts to make the cost of supporting Pakistan become untenable for the Maai Baaps of Pakistan - including the biggest one of them all the US. Therefore, the GOI decided to take the less glamorous, more boring path of inexorable progress and development, building national consensus albeit inefficiently, investing heavily in social infrastructure and just about doing enough to keep a gap in terms of strategic and military power to deal with a slow disintegrating Pakistan. Of course, there were miscalculations along the way in terms of not reading China or playing into the hands of political expediency in terms of turning a blind eye to sectarian extremism at first in terms of Punjab and Kashmir. But by and large, GOI seems to have had an institutional approach that reflected a better understanding of who we were really against, our powers and capabilities with regard to them and hence followed a calibrated policy.

That is the part of me thinking that Indian babudom and political class can and do have the ability of thinking objectively and strategically. But the other part of is doubting this. Piskologically speaking, can one really believe that we have that kind of vision or capability amongst our elected rulers and appointed rulers? Do their track record of utterances and actions back up that kind of an assessment that they are indeed capable of thinking through things? I get confused when this "doubting Thomas" part of me asserts itself.

The reason I address this ramble to you, is because you are as good a piskological guru as you are a strategic guru and I felt that you have been amongst the first to break free from conventional thinking when it comes to thinking about Pakistan. So if you can, please do clear the cobwebs that are in my head and show me the light. Thanks

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 07 Nov 2014 13:23

Pakistani Army => Jihad with Teeth

Whereas Somalia, Afghanistan, FATA etc. are Islamic lands where the government has weakened or faded away, Pakistan and Turkey, at least the current Turkey under Erdogan, are countries with a strong Islamic Establishment in power, considerable modern military muscle, with access to Western technology and business, with a certain Western dependence on them due to their geo-strategic location and apparent willingness to work with the West on regional politics. A certain Westernized social layer or even an indulgent elite layer is presented to the West by these countries, to imply a certain congruence of interest and understanding.

Whereas the greater Ummah, the Arab Street, the Tribal Areas, the overcrowded run-down towns of Pakistan and the rest of the Muslim world, they can provide an unlimited supply of Jihadis to various Islamic causes in the world, military establishments like those of Turkey and Pakistan can supply those Jihadis with funding, banking, communications, Internet presence, weaponry, logistics, documents, modern military training, intelligence, medical treatment, transit hubs, etc. all the while pretending to be working with the West to curb the Jihadis.

Thus these Islamic military establishments make the Jihadis of this world a lot more potent, a lot more dangerous.

Either the West wishes to use the services of these Islamic military establishments to oversee the use of Jihadis against their other global military rivals, or they want to use their services to curb anti-Western Jihadis. In both cases, the West strengthens the hands of these Islamist Military establishments, say Pakistani Army and Turkish Establishment, who then facilitate Jihad's potency.

In case of India, it is that we haven't really had the ability lately to either use such Islamic military establishments to either hurt our enemies, nor have we been particularly able to curb Jihadis through cooperation with these Islamist military establishments. As such India has not really made ourselves prisoners of our transactions with these Islamic military establishments.

What this means is that India is basically free to hit out at these Islamic military establishments and weaken them, and most appropriately the Islamic military establishment where we ought to start this is the Pakistani Army.

Breaking down Pakistan into 4-5 parts would go a long way in weakening and disbanding of Pakistani Army, and thus making Jihadis in the region toothless.

It is true, that as the standard of living in an Islamic country goes down, as is happening in Pakistan, and poverty and population increases, it would be much easier to recruit Jihadis. They would be willing to join various causes for much less money.

What that means is that the potency of Pakistani Army would remain same even as Pakistan becomes poorer, i.e. as long as it has access to modern weapons, modern communications, and political access to the West, because even as Pakistani Army has less financial resources, its outlay to recruit Jihadis also decrease because of overall decreasing Jihadi "wages".

Pakistan's threat to India is not so much in the frontal military confrontation, because as time goes the differential would increase. India would start becoming military stronger and Pakistan military weaker. The bigger weapon systems for Pakistan does not really help Pakistan, i.e. as long as they are still weaker than those of India, e.g. if India can neutralize all this Pakistani weaponry in a couple of days.

What is more threatening to India is the logistical support Pakistan can give Jihadis, the way it did for Mumbai 26/11 attacks. Far more threatening is the ability of Pakistan to brainwash and recruit Indian Muslims for terrorism. Pakistan retains the ability to conduct asymmetric war against India using so-called non-state actors and various proxies.

The ability to conduct asymmetric warfare against India coupled with the proclivity to do so, is something that Pakistani Army retains simply through its mere existence. So Pakistani Army must go. So Pakistan must go.

4 to 5 new Muslim states instead of Pakistan, with establishments hostile to one-another, and inability to sustain Jihadis in India, can be the only solution to stopping Islamic terrorism against India as emanating from Pakistani lands.

deejay
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 3211
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby deejay » 07 Nov 2014 15:28

While acknowledging my own limited understanding on the subject, I have often wondered whether Pakistan is the only sate ever to be run and managed by 'spies'. While the PA might be to Pakistan what GOI is to India, the real deal, or the ultimate decision makers are the ones heading ISI and the Chief of PA working primarily through the bureaucracy of 'spies'.

The Plausible deniability, the Double speak, the Peace flag in the right hand with left hand pressing the Terror button are kind of games that 'Spies' would play on regular basis. The use of terror' as an arm of offensive strategy, holding the Nuclear 'ace' as a threat, friendships with global outcasts like NoKo are in line with developing "assets' for all emergencies in the worlds of Intelligence Agencies.

They have a finger in almost all global trouble spots, they have cultivated 'double agents' even in US, they are NATO allied and the bestest of friends of China. These are things traditionally armies would find hard to deal with but 'Spies' would use with ease.

A 'hit' on Paki strengths would have limited benefits without targeting ISI in particular and weakening it. A weak ISI will weaken the PA and hence the entire Paki State. As long as the 'spies' are strong and in cohesion they will cobble together a response. If the ISI falls apart - the challenge in Kashmir, the control of Jihadis, the funding programmes, etc will fall apart.

While it may be contested that targeting the PA means targeting the ISI, I am trying to further concentrate the focus to reduce the CEP.


RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 07 Nov 2014 15:48

Even if Pakistan is broken up into 4-5 parts, the strategic depth of Pakistani Army in the form of an international network of assets, influence, funding, weapon dealers, narcotics traffickers, Islamic brainwashing centers, transit hubs, sanctuaries and safe havens, document forgery, currency forgery, jihadi recruitment centers, and so on can continue to survive despite a breakup of Pakistan.

However such a break-up means that Pakistani Army-ISI does not retain a monopoly on influence in any given fragment of erstwhile-Pakistan or can hide behind international sensitivities on violation of sovereignty. It allows others, like India, to jump into the game and neutralize this monster.

RamaY
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17260
Joined: 10 Aug 2006 21:11
Location: http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/

Re: Pakistan-sponsored Terrorism - India's Options

Postby RamaY » 07 Nov 2014 17:03

RamaY wrote:XPosted
Gagan wrote:All this talk of 30 million turning up on the Indian border for food is unduly dramatic. I don't think it will quite happen this way. Pakistan is straining to remain a single unit. The strings that bind them together are weaker by the day, as the economic situation gets more desperate. Happily, their desperation to maintain their hollow H&D will prove to be their undoing.


RamaY wrote:
Gagan-ji

I do not think so. As the internal violence increases mango-abduls will try to sneak into India. Before their liberation Bangladeshis were Pawkis and they did the same.

Hopefully future Indian PM replays IG's game plan. But then we will be left with another BD land in our west causing slow immigration drain into India as BD is doing now.

There is no easy solution to this problem.

* As long as India keeps them outside, they will become pawns in external players' hands (look at BD and PRC relationship).

* If you bring them in, you are destroying your own house.

My recommendation is to
- Keep them out and separate from Bharat.
- As part of the liberation strategy, build complete reliance on India w.r.t vital food/energy/water supplies
- Support military dictatorships in these states (Islam is not compatible with democracy) and make sure that the dictators die every 3-5 years.
- Install 100% hold on their education and civil-laws.


Smokers’ Corner: The punishing verdict
By Nadeem F. Paracha

... the same survey finds broad support for harsh punishments: [b]78 per cent favour death for those who leave Islam; 80 per cent favour whippings and cutting off hands for crimes like theft and robbery; and 83 per cent favour stoning adulterers to death.

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/daw ... -760-hh-05

RamaY wrote:I strongly recommend that this law is passed in Pakistan and implemented 400%. This will solve 99.8% of the population problem that is in discussion past two pages...

- Define Islam. All Shias and Ahmedis are kind of left that pure islam == KILL THEM
- Cutting of hands for theft and robbery. 90% of TSPA/ISI qualifies for this claim/crime == AMPUTATE THEM
- Stoning Adulterers to death. 100% RAPE class falls into this category == STONE THEM TO DEATH

This leaves PURE Sunni Muslims. Declare war on them and kill them.

Change Hindu laws (== Secularism) to allow polygamy and convert those living muslim women. Every Indian who marries a converted woman will get 10 Acres of land in West-Indian states of SindhuDesh, Taksasila, Madra, and so on...


RamaY wrote:Guys... please think...

All your plans expect Yindoo-Baniyas to do the hard work and you forget that Yindoo-Baniyas are weak and timid.. Let the martial races of Pakistan do your work.

Please see my post above. Support Taliban - Encourage them to install the purest of pure (purer than brophet and even allah if needed) form of Islam. Ask them to Kill all non-believers amongst them. Amputate thieves and robbers. Stone to death all adulterers.

Let the purest man come forward and demand India to submit. Let the strongest man win. If Allah is happy with those purest of pure Pakis, he will take them to Jennat, far away from these filthy kaffirs.

abhischekcc
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4261
Joined: 12 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: If I can’t move the gods, I’ll stir up hell
Contact:

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby abhischekcc » 08 Nov 2014 18:01

RajeshA wrote:Even if Pakistan is broken up into 4-5 parts, the strategic depth of Pakistani Army in the form of an international network of assets, influence, funding, weapon dealers, narcotics traffickers, Islamic brainwashing centers, transit hubs, sanctuaries and safe havens, document forgery, currency forgery, jihadi recruitment centers, and so on can continue to survive despite a breakup of Pakistan.

However such a break-up means that Pakistani Army-ISI does not retain a monopoly on influence in any given fragment of erstwhile-Pakistan or can hide behind international sensitivities on violation of sovereignty. It allows others, like India, to jump into the game and neutralize this monster.


Not necessarily.

Only the Punjabis in Pakistan want war against India, because it helps turn the locals' attention from the total failure of the government of pakistan (GOP). The jihadi infrastructure (as well as the drug infrastructure) is mostly located in northern pakistan (Pashtun areas) and in POK. The controlling networks are in W.Punjab. Breaking pakistan will separate the functional part of jihad from the controlling part of jihad. It will also deprive jihadis of forward bases such as Sindh and Baloch areas.

The money laundering parts of narco-trafficking are located in the more urban areas like Sindh and Punjab. Western banks like HSBC and Stanchart are part of the money laundering cycle and are responsible for transmitting the ill-gotten gains from lower levels of narco-trafficking to the global (western dominated) financial world. Of course, they are also responsible for money laundering at higher levels also.

Breaking pakistan will divide the controlling part from the functional part from the financial part of the jihad/drug industry.

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 08 Nov 2014 19:19

Cross-Posting a post by shiv from "Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan - 10 Oct 2014" Thread

Raja Ram wrote:That is the part of me thinking that Indian babudom and political class can and do have the ability of thinking objectively and strategically. But the other part of is doubting this. Piskologically speaking, can one really believe that we have that kind of vision or capability amongst our elected rulers and appointed rulers? Do their track record of utterances and actions back up that kind of an assessment that they are indeed capable of thinking through things? I get confused when this "doubting Thomas" part of me asserts itself.

The reason I address this ramble to you, is because you are as good a piskological guru as you are a strategic guru and I felt that you have been amongst the first to break free from conventional thinking when it comes to thinking about Pakistan. So if you can, please do clear the cobwebs that are in my head and show me the light. Thanks

:lol: Thanks for the kind words. This has ended up being a very long reply. My apologies.

I think we do have the basic human material (smartness, knowledge) to handle things sensibly. We also have had in my view a "stroke of luck". India and Indians do have a streak of civilizational consciousness. I use the expression despite the difficulty in explaining its meaning - but ever since I started thinking about it - I have seen it as a common set of cultural traits(morality and human values) , a common set of sacred icons (geography, mountains, rivers, sacred places) and a common civilizational memory in terms of stories and legends that connect up the core Indian nation. Whether anyone likes it of not these traits have a firm Hindu color and many are hardly "religious" in nature.

The existence of such commonality has been denied by all invaders, who have tended to be of a more restricted religio-cultural background and cannot see the common skein, or the common skein ends up being antagonistic to their aims, but I digress. What this national commonality gives us is a common idea of what is good and what is not good. These are the factors that have given rise to a large number of nationalistic leaders. I have criticized the word "nationalist" in another thread. I think in India, "nationalist" is a pseudo-secular word that is used in place of "Hindu culture" so that people are not offended. But Hindu culture is not a religion. It is a common thread of behavior, morality and allegiance to a geographic region. A Christian or Muslim can show this behavior without fear or guilt, and they do. But it is the religions, Christianity and Islam which are at the forefront of denying that their followers can be called "Hindu" or that they can show allegiance to geography or morality that is out of their book. But people can and do act that way and can be nationalist/Hindu. Disputing who is Hindu is at the heart of the tactics used by invaders who have sought to break India. It is the pseudosecular fear of offending my Muslim compatriot that stops me from pointing out that India is steeped in Hindu history and culture and Indian nationalism is loyalty to the entire nation with its geographic boundaries that are described in literature and folklore going back 5000 years. That folklore happens to be Hindu, and losing that is losing our identity as a nation.

India has had the good fortune of having a sufficiently large body of Indians who are fully aware of its history and what makes it a nation-state today. Pakistan is only a subset of the issues faced by the nation - although it is an important subset. In 1947 Jinnah and Iqbal played a confidence trick on the country in the ultimate dispute against the concept of India as a nation. The con job was to deny that India could be a nation and that it was islam that is the real glue. India and Indian had no way of confirming or denying this. It was a geo-strategic "you farted" act and although Indian leaders (and even Maududi IIRC) had their doubts no one could do anything about it.

The Pakistani founding fathers, largely the educated ashraf elite were very "modern" in the way they were able to forge very "European" alliances with European and post European powers. "Alliance" means I fight your wars, you fight mine. It is not about dance and cultural exchange. It is about you helping me when my survival is at risk. Pakistani leaders constantly took the line that they would ally with the biggest powers and fight their battles (which the great powers needed to fight for their survival) in exchange for aid that would ensure Pakistan's survival, In other words Pakistan's survival as a nation was not a consequence of history, culture or geographic boundaries which had all been rejected in favor of Islam . It was assumed to be Islam but needed to be held together by force (ultimately the Paki army). And that army forged strong alliances with great powers to ensure its own survival.

I think this information has always been clear to Indian leaders, and facts stood out even more starkly after 1971 when Islam was proven not to be the glue for an intact Pakistan. Also obvious to Indian leaders was the fact that Muslims in India did not rise up en masse in response to Pakistan's call for rebellion starting from before 1965. This much information is enough to chart a path for India. Maintain harmony and justice and keep defence just strong enough to resist Pakistan attempts to revise borders. This latter requirement has made India stumble and scramble on several occasions. Every time Pakistan acquired game-changing military capability (always from foreign sources) India faced open threats and had to scramble to keep up. We had to "catch up" with Pakistan nuclear weapons - tested for them in China in 1983. We had to scramble to match the game changing acquisitions of F-104s in the late 50s and F-16s in the 80s. To the Indian government that had to fund all this it was obvious that we were fighting a sort of proxy war against the US and China via Pakistan. We could not hope to defeat Pakistan comprehensively given its network of allies, and given that Pakistan really was playing mercenary for those allies and earning their profound gratitude.

What amazes me is that none of this information was deliberately kept secret from the Indian public. It was all out there in the open, and the government and defence apparatus were doing pretty much what was appropriate and adequate under the circumstances to cope with such pressures. But the Indian public and Indian media (including BRF in the early days) was guided entirely by our flawed education, by western media and a western way of looking at India by Indians themselves. There was also a conviction that India should deal with things like the west, in order to become like the west. What this meant on the ground was that Indians were unable to see Pakistan's hostility to India. Indians simply suspected that it was their own hostility to Muslims. Furthermore educated Indians felt that we should deal with Pakistan like Israel's Entebbe raid or the way the US handled Pakistan.

As I found out for myself on BRF when I tried to say how Pakistan and the US were allied, my words were regularly stonewalled and I was told that this was nonsense, and that the US was a superpower that could do anything and would make Pakistan do its bidding in an instant. The truth in fact was somewhere in between. the US could and did use Pakistan to "balance" India, but it was also being conned by Pakistan and did not have Pakistan under its control.

The difference for India between these two possibilities is huge. If Pakistan is totally under US control and Pakistan is totally devoted to propping up US actions against India, then we have to fight the US ultimately, to break free.

But if Pakistan is not totally under US control and is actually manipulating and using the US, then we need not end up fighting the US. We only need to bring Pakistan's hostility and antagonism to the US out in the open and let the alliance break up.

For these and a host of other reasons I believe that the key element has been access to accurate information. GoI has that information. We (the lay public) too have access to information provided we look at all sources rather than restrict ourselves to some Paki media that may be designed to simply fool us. The Pakistani establishment and ISI are 100 times smarter than BRF as a group. They also have the power to plant information that is believed by a huge number of Americans and Indians, let alone BRFites. Therefore we need to look at all information from Pakistan with care and to check if alternate sources and different views are available.

Strategizing and planning are all about information. If you take planted information or ignore available info, the ideas you get will be wrong. The subject is huge and I must point out that many of my thoughts have been guided by knowledge of some military history. I commend the GoI's drive to see that it is documented

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 08 Nov 2014 19:20

Cross-Posting a post by Raja Ram from "Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan - 10 Oct 2014" Thread

Thanks shiv, that was a sweeping exposition on the idea of India from an Indian perspective. While I am reading and re reading it to get the nuances correct, I would like to present a few points to consider to you and other gentle rakhsaks in the forum

1. One of the key takeaways, therefore is that Pakistani entity has used its benefactors as much as they have used them. It is not just a pure master-slave relationship, but the slave has also used the masters.

2. I have always had a hypothesis, post WWII era is one that ushered a few new paradigms. Large scale wars were not the norm, but it is also a fact that the whole world has been subjected to many localized wars. The Cold War had the two super powers being the source, the arbiter and sometimes direct participants in conflicts. Post Cold war, the surviving sole power is also stretched beyond its limits in playing the role on its own. Pakistan was a shrewd exploiter of the Cold War era and engineered for itself a level of usefulness for its benefactors. India, on the other hand, made a conscious decision of not being part of any camp, but committed itself to pull itself out of the conditions that it found itself in.

3. With the emergence of India and China along with other powers, there is an ongoing evolution into a multi polar world. This rise is at the expense of the benefactors and status quo powers. They would rather have this rise moderated and made in a manner that India plays by their rules. This is again used well by Pakistan for its own survival.

4. However, it now appears that India has now reached a momentum that will make it more and more difficult for Pakistan to justify its usefulness as an instrument of containment of India for the benefactors. In addition, the cost of using Pakistan is going to be unaffordable for the benefactors. Furthermore, it is also getting clear that the ability of the sole super power and its allies are to exercise their overwhelming capability superiority has to be tempered by the fact that the world is far more complex to exercise that superiority.

5. In light of the above, I think the Indian strategic space and response is undergoing a phase of very significant recalibration and the leadership that is in place in India will not shy away from exercising its options and further its national interests. I believe, that this is not lost on powers that have made Pakistan possible and are underwriting its survival. The Pakistani elite are also increasingly getting nervous on what is store for them and they are in for a storm that will blow their own entity away. The benefactors will be forced in the next decade to limit their exposure and cut their losses in Pakistan.

6. In conclusion, the GOI is now in a position to take advantage of a series of options that will open up. It can achieve two strategic aims. Getting rid of the Pakistan problem by getting rid of Pakistan is the first. The second is to neutralize the major benefactors ability to keep India down and restrained into a sub-regional box.

It is this window of opportunity that has now emerged and it is unto India to seize the moment and push through with its agenda.

Just my thoughts for what it is worth

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 08 Nov 2014 19:21

Cross-Posting a post by shiv from "Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan - 10 Oct 2014" Thread

Raja Ram wrote:6. In conclusion, the GOI is now in a position to take advantage of a series of options that will open up. It can achieve two strategic aims. Getting rid of the Pakistan problem by getting rid of Pakistan is the first. The second is to neutralize the major benefactors ability to keep India down and restrained into a sub-regional box.

After I read your post, a thought that occurred to me was with reference the statement "A stable Pakistan is in India's interest"

The strongest (and perfectly valid) argument we have had against that is that a stable Pakistan, or for that matter Pakistan, stable or unstable, has never ever, not even for a minute, been in India's interest. A collapse of, or getting rid of Pakistan is a desirable outcome for that reason. (As an aside, maybe the Pakistani army's "survival is victory" is a result of this desire, but I digress.)

The question that arises in my mind is whether we can ever have a stable state that is not inimical to India in that region. To me this seems unlikely. I cannot see in any scenario a state bordering Kashmir, Punjab and Rajasthan that is stable and friendly to India.

We owe it to the country to ensure maximum security to the nation - and surely it can't be fun to live in the border regions so the fact that a stable state across the border is unlikely is bad new. However - it is mostly a continuation of what we have seen for 67 years. Maybe something needs to be done or made to happen to reduce the risk further.

I have felt for some years that a very populous failing state next door - where people are starving and ridden with disease and jobless would be a good outcome for Pakistan. They seem to be meeting at least some of those requirements on their own. The problem of course is those parts of Pakistan that are coherent - the "establishment" and the "army" - that parts of Pakistan that constitute the Kabila. The Kabila receives aid from the US and China and that is what has been a problem. The Kabila needs to be rendered ineffective.

i stated many years ago that India can do deals with a proper Islamic state next door - but we have to be able to punish them militarily at will. We can deal with super-pious Muslims - but rabble rousing mullahs will need elimination. Rabble rousing/criminal Mullahs backed by clean shaven armies supported by the US is what we have now - and I don't see any easy or quick end to that.

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 08 Nov 2014 19:31

shiv wrote:I have felt for some years that a very populous failing state next door - where people are starving and ridden with disease and jobless would be a good outcome for Pakistan. They seem to be meeting at least some of those requirements on their own. The problem of course is those parts of Pakistan that are coherent - the "establishment" and the "army" - that parts of Pakistan that constitute the Kabila. The Kabila receives aid from the US and China and that is what has been a problem. The Kabila needs to be rendered ineffective.

i stated many years ago that India can do deals with a proper Islamic state next door - but we have to be able to punish them militarily at will. We can deal with super-pious Muslims - but rabble rousing mullahs will need elimination. Rabble rousing/criminal Mullahs backed by clean shaven armies supported by the US is what we have now - and I don't see any easy or quick end to that.


A very poor populous Muslim state next door works both ways. If the Kabila is still in tact, then their recruitment costs for Jihadis decrease and such Jihadis can be sent to India to cause terror.

However a very poor populous Muslim state next door, where India decides to finish off the Kabila, again on the one hand the recruitment costs for Kabila-hunters is low, and secondly the Shuddhi costs for the population are also manageable.

The Kabila - Mullahs, Ghazis, Jihadis, Jernails, and their next rung of leaders would have to be taken out. So it really depends on what India decides, plans for and prepares for.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32479
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby shiv » 09 Nov 2014 06:35

If you look at the tactics adopted by the west (or even Pakistan) when it comes to troublesome areas of the world, the idea is usually to "bring stability" by installing a puppet government. The US had the Shah of Iran as a puppet; they tried to install a puppet in Vietnam; hey had Marcos in the Phillippines. Pakistan itself had a puppet in the Taliban inside Afghanistan

The unique feature of Pakistan was that the army acted effectively as a US puppet earning them lasting US gratitude and tens of billions in aid.

So when I say that I would like to see a chaotic, infighting, poor, disease riven state next door I could be asked why it would not be better to copy the tactics used by states over centuries and try and install a puppet government in Pakistan. The main reason is that leaders of people cannot simply be conjured up. Puppets can be installed but they will soon be deposed or dethroned because they are puppets. The other problem is that currently the Pakistan army is a puppet of the US (and China) and the Islamists who fight the army are against the US and India.

To repeat what I have said many times
1. The Pakistan army and its own Islamist puppets are wholly ant India and are not anti-US or China
2. Splinter groups of Islamists are anti US, anti-China and anti India

If you were an American planner which would you prefer?
If you were an Indian planner which would you prefer?

member_28797
BRFite
Posts: 188
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby member_28797 » 09 Nov 2014 06:54

Why do mullas here don't talk about gulping a majority of pakistan back in India? What are the logistics of kicking all the paki population to a little island in pakistan and taking over the land that rightly belongs to us?

Given that pakistan and bangladesh was created to send Indian muslims there and given that 80% of them remained in India, what's the point of giving away 40% of Indian land for free without any benefit in return?
It's the next big frontier we must achieve. The sickular-marxist brigade has created the fear of maintaing a "peaceful but strong" India that doesn't retaliate even when it is attacked and even when heaps of injustices are committed on to it. While pakistan is the eternal victim even after killing minority Hindus/Sikhs/Christians living in pakistan. Further degradation and manipulation of Indian cultural texts has been done to promote this "pissful" view. This shyness/fear is something we need to get to rid of, if we want to stand united in the future.

Any opinion on this matter?

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 10 Nov 2014 00:30

shiv wrote:If you look at the tactics adopted by the west (or even Pakistan) when it comes to troublesome areas of the world, the idea is usually to "bring stability" by installing a puppet government. The US had the Shah of Iran as a puppet; they tried to install a puppet in Vietnam; hey had Marcos in the Phillippines. Pakistan itself had a puppet in the Taliban inside Afghanistan

The unique feature of Pakistan was that the army acted effectively as a US puppet earning them lasting US gratitude and tens of billions in aid.

So when I say that I would like to see a chaotic, infighting, poor, disease riven state next door I could be asked why it would not be better to copy the tactics used by states over centuries and try and install a puppet government in Pakistan. The main reason is that leaders of people cannot simply be conjured up. Puppets can be installed but they will soon be deposed or dethroned because they are puppets. The other problem is that currently the Pakistan army is a puppet of the US (and China) and the Islamists who fight the army are against the US and India.

To repeat what I have said many times
1. The Pakistan army and its own Islamist puppets are wholly ant India and are not anti-US or China
2. Splinter groups of Islamists are anti US, anti-China and anti India

If you were an American planner which would you prefer?
If you were an Indian planner which would you prefer?


One of the reasons, the West is fully satisfied with a puppet government is because the West doesn't really have any stake either in bringing any durable change to a region, especially not in raising the standard of living of that region. The country has to raise its standard of living on its own. Often with puppet regimes in non-Western, non-European places like Indian Subcontinent, Middle-East, Africa or South America, the regime is there only to act as a middle-man, get military or political support from the West, some dole, and on the other hand suck the blood of the country itself. The West gets what it wants. The puppet regime gets what it wants. The people of the country however are short-changed. Now sitting far away, how the people get along, really doesn't interest the West/USA.

However a Pakistan full of Jihadis next door is very much of concern to India and Indians. For us it remains a security concern.

In a broken up Pakistan consisting of 4-5 parts, where their international concerns are only distribution of Indus River waters, transit facilities for land-locked countries, border demarcation and cross-border terrorism and crime, the governments would hardly be so vociferous about Hindu India. So in that scenario, India should not be averse to having puppet regimes in post-Pakistan countries.

However that itself is not a solution, just a facilitator for a solution. It is not as if the eyes of the ex-Pakistanis would divert from rich India lying next door to them.

A final solution would have to be to exorcise the Arab Bhoot out of them.

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20086
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Prem » 10 Nov 2014 01:10

Simply Nuke them , take the losses now and recover, control, occupy the territory. Just the glimpse of this strategy will give Poaqleccas sleepless nights. In fact simple retaliation at LOC have given them the jitters. Their impotent anger and fear is there in open for everyone to see. Time to take initiative and take control of agenda which i think new political dispensation in India will do right after J& K election. change of narrative, agenda along with growing economic strength and military power will nullify all the malicious facetious Poaqlicious policies of past by many of the antagonists who themselves are now fearing,feeling the stings of poisonous paki. Pehle Karro Paki Nanga, Then start the Panga,Phir Nikalo , Ghusao, nikalo Danda , Tubb Banege yeh Gaddhe, Baanda.

vishvak
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 5337
Joined: 12 Aug 2011 21:19

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby vishvak » 10 Nov 2014 01:14

+100 Jhujar ji. We should finish off troubles at their roots. The only reason Hindus are not running across Hindu kush like Yazidis on Sinjar mountain is because we have defeated the pakis, though temporarily.

member_28797
BRFite
Posts: 188
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby member_28797 » 10 Nov 2014 01:20

Many of the so-called patriots on this forum itself were shitting their pants during the border shelling incident. Reminding us dumb yindoos to fear the atim bum. Some were back on India-paki bhai-bhai rhetoric and some were saying that a peaceful stance is better. Expect the country getting GUBO'd again and again till people like this remain in our "civil (read coward)" society.

It's funny that a country as pathetic as pakistan with no govt., no economy and no reason of existence is feared and treated as an equal by Indians. pakis are nowhere close to being equal to us, they still live in 7th century and they will live there for a long time to come. I, for one am fed up of this constant tolerance towards these terrorists and their sympathizers here at home.


RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 12 Nov 2014 19:14

vijaykarthik ji,

just a request. Please put in some headline, some text to describe the link you are sharing.

KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3412
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby KLNMurthy » 12 Nov 2014 21:42

vishvak wrote:+100 Jhujar ji. We should finish off troubles at their roots. The only reason Hindus are not running across Hindu kush like Yazidis on Sinjar mountain is because we have defeated the pakis, though temporarily.

We need a Department of WMD Survival And Reconstruction directly under the PM. Creating that department and budgeting for it will send the correct message. Or it could be a Constitutional Body like Election Commission, created by Parliament.

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20086
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Prem » 12 Nov 2014 21:56

KLNMurthy wrote:
vishvak wrote:+100 Jhujar ji. We should finish off troubles at their roots. The only reason Hindus are not running across Hindu kush like Yazidis on Sinjar mountain is because we have defeated the pakis, though temporarily.We need a Department of WMD Survival And Reconstruction directly under the PM. Creating that department and budgeting for it will send the correct message. Or it could be a Constitutional Body like Election Commission, created by Parliament.


I think this issue was discussed few months back. India needs to start making large scale shelters to be used in Nuclear war scenario. In fact every new huge construction project from now on should ne designed keeping this emergency usage in mind. This will send Paki & BoyfrienBaki in tizzy. BRF folks should start spreading the good news on evry paki wateing hole that Indians intend to do Annu Parhar to make Paki.Chaar.

SBajwa
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4250
Joined: 10 Jan 2006 21:35
Location: Attari

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby SBajwa » 13 Nov 2014 02:31

I think this issue was discussed few months back. India needs to start making large scale shelters to be used in Nuclear war scenario.


1. Large scale shelters shielded with water in each city.
2. Water/Food/medicine/etc hoarding for at least 3 months.
3. Enough weapons and gasoline holding.
4. power generation and communications with outside.
5. Pakistan yet cannot simply nuke the whole of India so once Nuke war is over the people living in Surviving cities must rescue the people from the vicinity of the nuked cities.
and so forth!

vinod
BRFite
Posts: 544
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby vinod » 17 Nov 2014 15:24

US's interest in Pakistan is losing steam pretty quickly. Their only interest in them is the Al Qaeda's leadership sheltered by Pakistan. Pak had dreamt of controlling middle east using Al Qaeda and now that has gone up in smoke, thanks to Islamic State.

So, that leaves Pakistan rushing into arms of China. China gaining land access to Arabian Sea is of great strategic consequence to us and them. So, at all costs, Pakistan should be broken up into smaller parts. The majority of the smaller parts should be made friendly to India. At least, cost to sustain them should be increased dramatically for their sponsors. I think China would be the only one rushing in. With oil price going down, Saudi\Gulf states would be hard-pressed to come to aid too much.

Nuclear proliferation is a thing which west fear and India should be ensuring they have a big stake in taking care of that threat. Jihadist should be told that they can take on India anytime but the great satan , US, can be taken care only once. This will force the west to take care of the nuclear disarmament of a disintegrating Pakistan.

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 23 Nov 2014 17:00

Cross-posting from "http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?p=1755458#p1755458" Thread

Who actually is keeping Pakistan together? It is USA and the West. All those countries which the West doesn't like can fall apart, except nations which have a strong backbone, like India.

Countries like Yugoslavia (Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Macedonia...) , Indonesia (East Timor), Serbia (Kosovo), Sudan (South Sudan), ... have been split after UN came into being, while others are being held together, because the West wants it so, e.g. Pakistan, Iraq, etc..

I know that West and Sunnis (GCC, Egypt, Pakistan, ...) are bosom buddies of USA-UK, but I wonder if Pakistan starts bedding Russia, whether things can change!

Pakistan has often made the case that it should be part of Russia-China axis against West, because despite its love-affair with USA, Pakistan also shares the Islamic hate for USA!

In which case, cozying up to Russia, can just be what could trigger the idea in the West, to let it disintegrate under its own weight! And despite having a military relationship with Russia, Russia would be all to glad to let Pakistan disappear from the Map.

Secondly Pakistan may feel that there are better chances of Russia grandfathering a North-South Oil+Gas Pipeline from Russia to India, or an Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline than USA. This way TSPA can sit tight and enjoy the cash flowing into its coffers without needing to do anything - just sitting back and see its bank-balance go up, with an extra power to stop such transmission when it wants. With Ghani now in charge of Afghanistan, Pakistan may not feel threatened by India.

With USA winding down its operations in the region, and its need for Pakistan decreasing at least as far as that aspect of its reliance on Pakistan goes, perhaps Pakistan may indeed be sensing that its money from USA may be winding down, and it needs to explore new horizons.

If Pakistan does make a substantial tilt towards Russia, then USA may not feel beholden to it at all and may even decide to punish it, that means coming in support of any plans India makes in taking Pakistan apart.

So Pakistan can overplay its hand!

No amount of Chinese billions can really save Pakistan. There Pakistan can be a black-hole. Russia may be interested in some deliverables - drugs, Chechens, pipeline, etc. but Russia would not be going out of its way in stopping Pakistan's disintegration.

So Pakistan moving towards Russia may not necessarily be a bad deed for us!

What Modi needs USA to understand is that it is best that Pakistan disintegrates.

vishvak
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 5337
Joined: 12 Aug 2011 21:19

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby vishvak » 23 Nov 2014 17:06

We need to declare open season for any country who wants to bomb paki terrorists, full support structure needs to be offered. Paki's 4fathers must be told that there can't be different standards for different nations.

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 24 Nov 2014 00:28

Cross-posted from "Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan - 10 Oct 2014" Thread

India should make Badmash the Yelzin of Pakistan!

KrishnaK
BRFite
Posts: 787
Joined: 29 Mar 2005 23:00

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby KrishnaK » 24 Nov 2014 03:04

RajeshA wrote: Who actually is keeping Pakistan together? It is USA and the West. All those countries which the West doesn't like can fall apart, except nations which have a strong backbone, like India.
Pakistan is a pretty viable country. Like Bangladesh is. Even after having forgone Islam as the basis for it's nationality Bangladesh is doing well. Both Pakistan and Bangladesh have a behemoth India on their borders, but one that is friendly and professes no animosity to the existence of these two countries. Unlike propaganda put here. If Pakistan were to let go of it's ideology it'll prosper just fine.

What Modi needs USA to understand is that it is best that Pakistan disintegrates.
What you need to understand is that a disintegrating Pakistan is far far far worse than one we have at present. Disintegrating doesn't mean vanishing.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7537
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Nov 2014 03:26

At the time of Partition Pakistan was called the "Laboratory of Islam".


This is an understandable misunderstanding arising from the nuances of Bakistani Bronuncication, arising from failure to understand Pingreji. The real name was

Labhatory of Ijlam
which means "pakistan" in Pakjabi.

Kashi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2292
Joined: 06 May 2011 13:53

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Kashi » 24 Nov 2014 16:36

KrishnaK wrote:Even after having forgone Islam as the basis for it's nationality Bangladesh is doing well.


That's hardly true, Bangladesh has not and has never foregone Islam at its core. They remain strongly wedded to Islamic values while retaining a soft shell of Bangla nationalism. The predominance of Islam in their day to day running is beyond doubt or question and unlike Pakis, they

a. Do not have multitude of sizable ethinicities at loggerheads with each other.
b. Do not have festering territorial disputes with neighbours, especially one like Afghanistan which refuses to accept large chunks of their territory as theirs.
c. Have the luxury of exporting their excess abduls across the border and enjoy the economic and social benefits, an option not available to Pakis.

Thus, they do not need the in-your-face brand of Islam.

At the end of it, non-muslims have little to cheer in Bangladesh

What you need to understand is that a disintegrating Pakistan is far far far worse than one we have at present. Disintegrating doesn't mean vanishing.


Care to elaborate why?

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 46676
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 02 Dec 2014 04:26

X-Post....
viewtopic.php?p=1758545#p1758545

Raja Ram wrote:Decoding Signals from the Noise - The Need to think a bit differently!

Gentle readers of the forum. I do believe that the famed "ahead of the curve" BRF is slowing down. Hence thought it is time for another ramble from yours truly can gently point out to certain facts and trends amidst the noise. A better signal to noise ratio, should ensure that our collective thinking is more focussed.

So in that spirit, it would be pertinent to point out a few interesting trends of the last few months since a new GoI dispensation took over

1. A far more integrated approach to National Security across all its dimensions i.e. Geo-political, Economic, Military, Socio-Cultural and Science & technology has been adopted. Evidence of the same is there to see if only we pick up the signals. The Inner Mandala (immediate neighborhood) being engaged, Act East, Engagement with Paki sponsor states in a new manner, revving up economic engine, Make in India, Cleansing of institutions, drawing up a plan for rapid military industrial complex building, intel up gradation, border areas being focused for development etc

2. A clear demonstration of National interest being reinforced be it with WTO negotiations or taking an offensive defence action against pakistani entity in the latest standoff, or standing our ground against Chinese bala pariksha during their President's visit

3. The clear acceptance that things have change in India by the western power elite, in terms of the long queues to get Modi to their country, from the USG's attempt to mend fences, to Australian and British efforts to reset their relationship with Modi. Not to mention, the almost daily wailing across Pakistani channels about how India is way ahead and how they are getting to be irrelevant.

4. The willingness on the part of GoI to engage the diaspora and integrate the vast presence and influence that they represent into articulation of Indian power projection. The positive response that this has evoked and very visible changes in processes and government attitude to them shows another intent. That India is ready to take on the responsibility towards them and work towards being a global player.

5. The very clear signals that the PM has made to the rest of South Asian region - offering them a choice and chance. They have all been clearly told to make a stand in terms of building a region that is open, sensitive to each others interests and becoming more integrated. That is the choice that they have been asked to make. In terms of chance, by electing to be aligned with the overarching Indian vision of an integrated region, the neighbors will be allowed to partake in the economic resurgence and growth of India. They will be able to get Indian capital, expertise, access Indian infrastructure.

These five mega trends are pretty obvious. What does it therefore portend to the artificial entity called Pakistan and its international benefactors?

1. First and foremost, India will act without recourse to any other consideration to any other power, to protect its national interest. Any Pakistani misadventure will be dealt with a composite response that will inflict disproportionate pain. It has already been demonstrated. Their backers in terms of the US and its allies, the Saudis and the Chinese are now very aware that India will not be acting in a purely defensive defense manner any more.

2. The survival of the artificial entity called Pakistan will be left to themselves. India will not do anything in terms of throwing a life line to this entity or a set of the power elite that controls that entity to ensure its survival. Indeed, should the entity or the power elite there continue to act against Indian security or export terror, India will retaliate and ensure everything possible is done to hasten the implosion.

3. Indian position with regard to Pakistan will not be based on any notions of what it will mean to Indian Muslims or potential fault lines that it might breach internally in India. There is a clear departure of sub-conscious linking of Indian Muslims to the problem that the artificial entity called Pakistan poses to us. No longer will the GOI be shackled by those imaginary chains.

The above messages are being increasingly understood by the Pakistanis as well as their benefactors, as they are not mere posturing but what they see as action on the ground by India. It is another matter that the biggest benefactor of the artificial entity called Pakistan, the USA, the sole super power is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain or control events in the rentier state. It is a reflection of the slow erosion in their capacity to use their still unsurpassed power and capabilities at the altar of geo-political constraints. What is not noticed or given any recognition and acknowledgement is the new found clarity of purpose and unity in action on the part of GOI. Even less understood is the full geo-strategic impact of the General Elections and what it has meant in terms of expression of National Will by the people of India. This has been a true "Black Swan" moment that should be understood.

If these basic signals or understood, we can understand that the coming decade will be one that will change the region in many ways as yet unimagined.

So gentle rakshaks, I do hope that this little ramble will set us all thinking a bit differently and act a bit differently. For after all, as I keep saying, the toughest shackles to break are the ones in our minds.

Just a ramble as usual take it for what it is worth!

schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1088
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby schinnas » 02 Dec 2014 12:27

RajeshA wrote:So Pakistan moving towards Russia may not necessarily be a bad deed for us!

What Modi needs USA to understand is that it is best that Pakistan disintegrates.


Right on! In fact except for some tactical considerations such as Pakis getting access to the same Russian weapon systems IA uses and as a result, better awareness of the limitations and capabilities that they might not already know, it is one of the best things to have happened. Given the anti-Putin rage in Washington, Pukis hobnobbing with Russia can be the last staw that breaks the US-Puki alliance camel's back. The timing is perfect with US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

We need to ensure that while Russia is allowed to play with Pakistan for sometime, they do not do anything detrimental to India's interests and remain our close trusted ally and take India into confidence on any non trivial security related dealings with Pukis.

India has in Doval just the right person at the right time. The time has come to wind up the failed experiment called Pukistan.

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 30 Dec 2014 18:29

What ails the people trapped in Pakistan?

Cross-posting from "Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan - 12 Dec 2014" Thread

Why are Pushtun so poor? Because Pushtuns have no access to Indian economy. Pakjabis won't allow them that access.

Why are Baluchis so poor? Because Baluchis have no access to Indian economy. Pakjabis won't allow them that access.

Why are Sindhis so poor? Because Sindhis have no access to Indian economy. Pakjabis won't allow them that access.

Why are Gilgitians so poor? Because Gilgitians have no access to Indian economy. Pakjabis won't allow them that access.

Why are Baltistanis so poor? Because Baltistanis have no access to Indian economy. Pakjabis won't allow them that access.

It is only as independent states or states within the Indian Union, that these people would be able to latch on to the growing Indian economy and progress. If they don't liberate themselves from Pakjabi imperialism, they would remain poor. Bangladeshis did it and so they are progressing.

Poor Pushtuns, poor Baluchis, poor Sindhis, poor Gilgitians, poor Baltistanis! How long should they remain under the shoe of Pakjab!

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 13 Apr 2015 13:25

Saudi Dilemma and a Way Out

Bakis being Baki would always do Bakipanti.

Bakis know that Iran is now officially out of the dog-house, and again enjoys the favors of the Goras & Chinnis. So Bakis are again salivating at the prospect of "strategic depth" and cutting off India from any route into Central Asia and Afghanistan.

The salivation is now by bucket-full, because Pakis think, with China and Iran, they can have their own private playing room in Central Asia.

Let's not forget, Pakjabis main nightmare is Pushtuns descending on them in the middle of the night, and cutting off their heads with blunt knives or blowing up their kids in schools.

Pakis, in their mind, simply have to curtail Indian access to Afghanistan and beyond, and to continue to demand heavy rent from Amreeka for it.

Iran may not be a party able to or inclined to create instability for Paki Army, but India certainly is, but India needs Iranian help on that. Pakis do not wish Iranians giving India such access, so Pakis cannot really afford to declare themselves in an anti-Iranian coalition, which it virtually would be if Pakis opt to go and hit Houthis in Yemen.

Usually Bakis simply rent out their soldiers, but that is meant either for some short-beard dedicated pilots and other high-skills military staff or the usually long-beard yahoos to go and do mercenary work. All that is covert, small scale and Pakis can hide any official stamp on it.

For Yemen however, Saudis are demanding an official big-scale ground troops deployment. That is just not Baki style! Saudis are saying you've been paid, and are our poodles, and Pakis are saying that that was just zakat for the impoverished masses of Bakiland.

The Saudis were creating a Sunni powerhouse to the east of the Persians, for just the day, when they may need it to save the asses of the Sheikhs. Now the Sheikhs of Arabia find out that there is no Sunni loyalty which goes beyond the tribe! It is an important lesson!

Problem for Sauds is that the other Sunni powers, i.e. Turkey, Pakistan and to some extent Egypt have their own agendas. Turkey still wants to recreate a Caliphate under its power. Pakistanis would always look for where they get their next rent and how to hit India. Egypt would always feel envious of Arab riches, which it does not have.

All these Sunni powers are more than happy to see the Sauds and other Sheikhs go down, which allows them to get more influence in the Ummah, perhaps even with some additional official political hold over the two mosques.

Saudis are finding out that more Salafism, more Wahhabism in the world does not translate necessarily into more support for the Sheikhs. On the contrary, it only creates more power centers, which salivate at the thought of getting their hands on the Oil and the two mosques.

What Saudis need are cheap Sunni rent boys, who jump on their command, have little in form of own political agendas, and do not make excuses when they are called. Bakjabi Army at the moment do not seem to be fulfilling their intended role.

In the medium term, i.e. if Saudis survive the upcoming war on the Arabian Peninsula, Saudis may rethink about how Pakistan needs to be transformed so that it plays the poodle role better. Would a Bakistan not dreaming of "strategic depth" be a better rent boy? Would a Pushtun rule over Bakistan be a better alternative to those pesky Persianized-Mughali Pakjabi Faujis?

Pakistan has become Iran's strategic depth in this case!

Saudi Arabia and India should talk about Baloch freedom and perhaps being part of India, and cutting Pakistan to size.

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 20 Apr 2015 14:27

Saudi Dilemma and a Way Out (Cont.)

Cross-posting from "West Asia News and Discussions" Thread

ldev's post

ldev wrote:The Arabs are controllable, the Iranians are not. A weak India sided with Iran, because it was far too weak to control the Arabs, the West has found it easier to control the Arabs than the Iranians. A strong India will find it easier to control the Arabs than a less predictable Iran which has its own agenda. So India has to look beyond the immediate Pakistan problem and develop a strong equation with the Sunni Arabs. A strong India will find it easier to neutralize the Sunni Arab-Pakistan equation besides increasing its influence in the wider Middle East. One of India's biggest strength in the region is its reputation for not interfering in the internal affairs of each country unlike a fellow Muslim country, even one such as Pakistan but especially countries such as Egypt, Jordan etc which will try and influence internal developments. For that to successfully happen, India has to be able to become a net provider of security in the region with a matching economy and armed forces capability.

China, because of its economy and Russia because of its arms exports will always have more influence over Iran compared to India, not that either China or Russia will be able to ultimately dictate the direction of Iranian policy. India's soft power in the Gulf on the other hand gives it a unique advantage there. That has to supplemented by hard power to ensure continuing access to energy.


Also Iran's Grand Strategy


I would like to do a reevaluation of my/our current thinking on this.

Over the years, I have often favored a more Indo-Iranian rapprochement based on ancient cultural bonds, but if one really thinks about it, our relations with Iran have mostly been one of tension, from the Avestan period to the Mughal period to Ayatollah period. Sure the Arabs were interested in some puritanical version of Islam, and such ulema did adorn the courts of Islamic rulers in India, but the political Islamic colonization of India has been at the hands of Turks and Afghans riding on Iranian cultural and imperial memes.

Iranians in some ways see Pakistan as its cultural depth and in fact as the sword arm with which to expand eastwards. One just needs to see the level of support Pakistan received from the Shah of Iran, e.g. during 1971 war or for that matter Islamic regime's interference in Kashmir politics. The Arabs on the other hand have never attacked India, except for the brief campaign by Muhammad bin Qasim in Sindh, and often it had to do with their politics against Persians.

So I think, Indian wish to ally with Iran is actually a mirage!

Arabs, I feel, have two interests in the Indian Subcontinent - Islamization, because that is what they do and Sunnization for curtailing Iranian influence and trying to build up reserves who can support Arabs against the Persians.

The Yemen conflict is again bringing it to Arab awareness, that Sunnism alone would not save the day viz-a-viz Iranians. Neither the Turks nor the Persians see each other as enemies, but in fact see themselves as joint-partners to define Central and Sooth Asia, and look upon Arabs as weak and worthy of disposal. Turks want to establish a neo-Ottoman Empire, with control over Hejaz while Iranians may not be disinterested in a neo-Mughal Empire. So Turks as a Sunni power is not really helping the Arabs versus the Iranians. In fact Turks may be trying to making itself the predominant power in the region. First Turks tried to put Muslim Brotherhood in charge of Egypt and now they may be trying to buy out ISIS from the Gulf Arabs.

For Arabs, the alliance of Gulf countries with America is also coming undone after the approaching P5+1-Iran agreement, where USA may not support Gulf countries to the same extent against Iran. Nor can China really give the Gulf countries what they want, simply because China is more interested in securing Central Asia in cooperation with Iran than really interested in Sunni control over Arab lands.

Why is Iran actually Shia? I would say to underline its independence from Gulf Arabs. If the Gulf Arabs are beaten through a joint Turk-Iranian venture, and do not have the resources anymore to project their influence into the Indian Subcontinent, and India falls to Islam, as per the thinking of Iranians, then there is no real reason for Iranians to cling on to Shi'ism. If Sunnis take over Indian Subcontinent and reestablish the neo-Mughal Empire, then Iran would be more than willing to dump Shi'ism the same day, become Sunni and try to take over the reigns of such a neo-Mughal Empire. The DNA of Iran is more imperialist than Islamic, I think.

Gulf Arabs need a Sunni Pakistan first and foremost to checkmate Iran on Iran's eastern border, to stop a neo-Mughalistan emerging first as Iran-Pakistan combo and then expanding eastwards and westwards. So the Sunnization drive in Pakistan by Gulf Arabs is directed against Iran. Military strengthening of Pakistan by the Arabs was simply to receive military aid from Pakis when the need arises. Gulf Arab support to Pakistan is not directed primarily against India but against Iran. Yemen conflict is telling the Gulf Arabs, that that investment in Pakistan is not paying off sufficiently.

India's problem with Pakistan is not the level of Sunnization or Islamization of Pakistan. It is not about how green Pakistan is. Our problem with Pakistan is really that it has an imperialist center (Pindi) as well, just like there is one in Turkey and Iran.

A fully Talibanized Pakistan is not the problem for India. However a fully armed Pakistan is, because then it starts getting uppity and imperialist.

But 3½ friends of Pakistan have been continuously arming Pakistan, and that creates a difficulty for India. What India wants is the breakdown of the imperialist military center in Pakistan, and not necessarily some form of Islamic moderation. That is uninteresting!

So how to achieve it? I think we need to turn at least one of Pakistan's friends against it! It can be China, Gulf Arabs or USA. Indians have for decades hoped that USA would dump Pakistan. Some thought that common values between USA and India would lead to this. Others thought that the deaths of thousands of American troops at the hands of Pakistan-supported proxies would help USA to change its mindset. That is not going to be the case.

China would not dump Pakistan simply because of geopolitics in Asia. Our primary foe is China and they too know it.

Question is can the Gulf Arabs dump Pakistan? Yemen is providing some possibilities.

The thing we should not care about the Islamization or rather Sunnization of Pakistan! If the Gulf Arabs want to throw more money into Pakistan to make more Sunni drones, then that should be okay with us, AS LONG AS there is no imperial military center in Pakistan to make use of them to wage war against India. Sunnization of Pakistan only acts as a check on Iranian influence.

Question is can the Gulf Arabs dump Pakistani Army?

We Indians know that Gulf Arabs can be very "flexible" regarding political alignments - with USA, with ISRAEL!!!

So here is one proposal!

Indian demands from Gulf Arabs:

  1. Stop Islamization in India - no more funding.
  2. Bangladesh should be left by the Gulf as India's "core interest"
  3. Free Baluchistan
  4. Help India take down Pakistan Army
  5. Support India's takeover of PoK
  6. Provide intelligence on any anti-Indian Islamic plans
  7. Gulf monarchies channel their money locked up elsewhere into Indian infrastructure

Here should be what India could offer the Gulf Arabs:
  1. All Paki military personnel are sent back from Gulf
  2. Indians take over as protectors of Gulf Arab monarchies
  3. Indians build a special Afghan Regiment in the Indian Army consisting of Sunnis, for protection of Gulf Arabs
  4. Gulf monarchies receive Indian nuclear umbrella, though secret

This is a far better scenario for Gulf Arab monarchies, than their current arrangement. Paki Army wants to play the Arabs against the Turks and Iranians. Why? Because of their Neo-Mughalistan dreams! India would not have any such reasons.

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2015 12:29

Saudi Dilemma and a Way Out (Cont.)

Cross-posting from "Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan - Apr 22 2015" Thread

Jhujar wrote:
Falijee wrote:Is Pakistan pivoting away from Saudi Arabia? By Bruce ReidelBut, Saudis have nobody else to turn to either.


They do , Both Saudi and Gulf can be good Munna of India .


Jhujar ji,

absolutely. But we need Afghanistan to balance the equation.

The way to go about it is to have Afghanistan providing the fig leaf to Saudi Arabia, that they are receiving security help only from dyed in the wool, greener than the green Momeens, even as the whole military framework in which the Afghans provide security to Saudi Arabia is Made in India, fully integrated with the Indian military. India (and for the time being USA) can however provide air, naval and nuclear security to the Gulf Sheikhs.

Gulf countries are weak and willing to spend heavily to buy security from others. If Iranians get control over the Oil or Hejaz, they wouldn't be asking Indians for security. Iranians have their own imperial plans. Gulf Arabs don't, nor do they have the capacity nor the geographical reach.

Afghans and Saudi-controlled Taliban on the one side and India on the other can crack Pakistani Army like a walnut, and end Chinese strategic control over our Western boundary.

Everybody gets what one wants:
Gulf countries get
1) a secure Gulf, ostensibly supported by Sunni Afghans
2) more Sunnized Pakistani people, albeit without an Army, which can contain Iranian strategic depth in the East.

Afghanistan gets
1) More money from Gulf for providing security
2) Pakistan out of Pakhtunkhwa
3) End of Pakistani terrorism in Afghanistan

India gets
1) End of Pakistan
2) Free Access to Central Asia
3) China without naval bases in Indian Ocean or at the mouth of the Gulf
4) Major say in Islamization of Indian population

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 20 Aug 2015 16:45

Gulf - Changing Priorities

Crossposting from "Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-July 10, 2015" Thread

Just listing the changes in the West Asia-Subcontinent politics:

1) Yemen imbroglio - GCC: Saudis, Emirates, Kuwaitis were extremely angry that their poodle Pakistan decided against jumping when ordered to do so by the Arabs. This amounted to treachery, after having munched on so many juicy bones provided by the Gulf countries to Pakistan - easy credit, somewhere safe to stash money, cheap oil, funding of nuclear program, etc. Pakistanis declined to assist the Saudis in their hour of need, when the skirmishes with Yemen started.

2) Iranian breakout - The sanctions against Iran are coming to an end. That means Iran can again play an enhanced active part in the political theater. Pakistan feels that its interests are more aligned with that of Iran, especially regarding securing Central Asia as a closed space for China, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and Russia, thus securing full control over Afghanistan, which Pakistan considers to be its backyard and denying India any access to Central Asia. Moreover Pakistan feels it can benefit from China, and for denying USA access, it can benefit from both China and Russia.

3) Chinese Corridor - Pakistan has also been promised $46 billion in Chinese investments especially for providing China with access to Gwadar port on the Indian Ocean.

4) Lashkar-e-Jhangvi clipped - Malik Ishaq, the leader of LeJ has been killed by Pakistan's security forces. This seems to be an unmistakable concession to Iran and Shias of Pakistan.

5) Taliban Control - Taliban has in the past also been under Pakistani control, but with the news of death of Mullah Omar, the nominal independence of Taliban's autonomy is also gone. Now Pakistan is officially the sugar daddy of Taliban, and those who want autonomy have been sidelined. Now Pakistan wants to control Afghanistan, despite moving away from single-minded Sunnite line. Possibly Pakistan desires sole control over Taliban, pushing out any Arab leanings and dependence of Taliban, read no more direction from Qatar.

6) Indo-UAE Accord - Since Pakistan has moved away from the Arab countries and thinks it can afford to move away from them, India has moved in to develop a broad-ranging security and economic relationship with them.

7) Houbara-Hunting Ban - The SC has chosen to put a ban on houbara hunting. As such such pranks and messages all sound at being of a childish level, but still Pakistan is willing to send these messages. There is not much in the form of official policy of Pakistan with which they can show their displeasure to Arab countries, but this seems like one way, harmless as it may sound. Though good for the Houbaras.

What all this means is that Pakistan is willing to move away from Arabs and move closer to Iranians and Turks, all under Chinese hegemony. Pakistan's priority remains control over Afghanistan and denial of access to Central Asia for India.

Since Pakistan's policy is determined by control over Afghanistan and access to Central Asia, it is exactly here that countries which feel cut out should focus their attention. It is here that the interests of USA, Gulf countries, Afghanistan and India converge. As long as Pakistan feels it is capable of denying access to Central Asia, it would tend to close ranks with Iran. It is this capability of Pakistan that needs to be taken away.

This means it is in interest of Arab countries, USA and India to ensure independence to Baluchistan or even Baluchistan's accession to India, in order to secure Baluchistan's independence from both Pakistan and Iran permanently. With loss of Baluchistan, both Gulf countries and USA would find, that Pakistan would be far more compliant to their wishes and policies.

Tuvaluan
BRFite
Posts: 1816
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Tuvaluan » 20 Aug 2015 18:24

RajeshA wrote:Since Pakistan's policy is determined by control over Afghanistan and access to Central Asia, it is exactly here that countries which feel cut out should focus their attention. It is here that the interests of USA, Gulf countries, Afghanistan and India converge.


That is incorrect -- USA has no interest in this either. That much should be obvious in their intent to fund PAkistan and its army and deliberately ensuring that they are enabled to create trouble in Afghanisthan and in J&K. In fact, it is the interests of USA and China that converge here, as was evident when the USA roped in China to deal in Afghanisthan but made sure India was kept out. US is part of the problem in this region, not part of the solution.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 46676
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 20 Aug 2015 21:59

X-post...
SaiK wrote:http://www.dailyo.in/politics/terrorism-ajit-doval-india-pakistan-relations-sartaj-aziz-narendra-modi-isi-26-11-mumbai-attack-samjhauta-express-blast/story/1/5755.html

Are we ready to create 4 paki provinces into 4 new states? and put the state-less under the guns?
the chinese front must be engaged on economic might.. they must go down to struggle for investments. war is only a second option to china.



I would propose the four P provinces be made into 4 new Union Territory states under military governors for 30 years with extension to another 30 years in increments of ten years.


I had proposed this in the GDF threads for quite sometime.

viewtopic.php?p=709929#p709929

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15949
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 07 Nov 2015 17:28

Originally posted by johneeG in Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Sept 05, 2015 Thread

Interesting Idea:
We can`t do anything, if Modi, Altaf Hussian & Zardari nexus making Sindhudesh UDI - Pak analyst


This is crimea model.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: anupmisra, Jaeger, Karthik S, LokeshC and 54 guests