Managing Pakistan's failure

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krisna
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby krisna » 01 Sep 2010 15:52

^^^^
1) will the raw cotton go as Indian aid to pakistan thru' UNO or is it separate. either way wont the labels be made in sdres land. Dont the pawkis know that only yindia can supply that.
2) will the yeevil sdres not jack up the prices of raw cotton if it is pawki exported :mrgreen:
3) why does not pawki RAPEs make noises about not accepting yeevil sdre cotton as they did for Indian aid. I have not read any reports so far. when it hits their musharraf they gubo and shut their upper orifices. :rotfl:

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby shiv » 01 Sep 2010 17:12

krisna wrote:^^^^
1) will the raw cotton go as Indian aid to pakistan thru' UNO or is it separate. either way wont the labels be made in sdres land. Dont the pawkis know that only yindia can supply that.
2) will the yeevil sdres not jack up the prices of raw cotton if it is pawki exported :mrgreen:
3) why does not pawki RAPEs make noises about not accepting yeevil sdre cotton as they did for Indian aid. I have not read any reports so far. when it hits their musharraf they gubo and shut their upper orifices. :rotfl:


I think it is important not to confuse the army and establishment with all Pakis. It is nice and funny to talk as if they are all the same - but if we have to make any progress in Pakistan we have to separate some groups and some people from others. There is already a lot of official and unofficial trade and it is weighed in Indias favor. We must to try to be too chankian here an say "Ha ha we will jack up this and screw Pakis" - because typically someone else - say Bangladesh ot China will buy our cotton cheap and sell it to Pakis at a higher price. Market forces are market forces and businessmen are typically not morons. they may be cheats - but not morons.

If Pakistan needs 10,000 tons of cotton and they can get it cheapest and fastest from India it would hardly be clever to say "Balls we will jack up our prices so it makes it cheaper for Pakis to import from Australia". Our cotton will be left unsold and our farmers may suffer because there could be a glut in India. If the Paki mill wants Indian cotton at competitive prices and the Paki government prevents that from happening then there will be anger at the Paki government. But if we fail to make the sale then we are scoring an own goal.

JE Menon
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby JE Menon » 01 Sep 2010 17:57

Every dollar that can come to India from Pakistan must be taken. Every effort must be made to generate profit for Indians out of Pakistan.

Never should we go for this trade embargo bullshit. Every dollar counts.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 01 Sep 2010 18:09

In textiles it is all about small margins, especially at the low end. If the Pakistani Mills have to import cotton from Australia, Pakistani textiles may not stay competitive, so textiles from 2.5 million bales, which they import, would find no buyer. That is probably scrapping off probably over a billion dollars of foreign exchange earnings, plus it would feed the inflation at home.

It would have been good if Indian manufacturers had tried to pick up Pakistan's market share.

JEM,

It can also be considered as a choice between getting a dollar from Pakistanis for cotton or getting 10 dollars from Europe for apparel.

I am basically against selling raw materials to our rivals and enemies. Everything else is good.

krisna
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby krisna » 01 Sep 2010 18:17

I think it is important not to confuse the army and establishment with all Pakis. It is nice and funny to talk as if they are all the same - but if we have to make any progress in Pakistan we have to separate some groups and some people from others. There is already a lot of official and unofficial trade and it is weighed in Indias favor


Shiv, I agree with your post. No issues on that.

Wrt to my post-
1) Pawkis know that we can supply lot of their needs and help them but still the drama they make …….
2) Yes market forces play a lot of role. As any businessman will think. Ex- a product X costs Rs 20 in India and is 25 in non Indian area(including transportation to bakistan), the business minds in India will sell it for Rs 22-24 just to undercut the prevailing prices elsewhere and still be cheap. If the prices are low elsewhere they will compete with those prices otherwise as you have rightly said it will rot.
3) RAPEs made noises about Indian aid but not for something which will affect their(RAPEs) livelihood. Many of the industries are in their control & they don’t want the loss of industries/income to affect their lifestyle. Hence the fun statement I made.

JE Menon
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby JE Menon » 01 Sep 2010 18:18

What I mean is that no opportunity to make money from Pakistan should be lost, as a general principle. If it is a question of limited quantities available for sale and greater profit elsewhere, of course there is no question where the sale should be made... the more profitable one.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby SSridhar » 01 Sep 2010 19:19

JEM, for the last few years, Pakistani cotton crops have been losing to blight and pests. Their productivity has been perennially low. After the removal of quotas and the resultant competition, the non-availability of cotton has hit it badly, not to talk of erratic and non-existent electricity supply. They have been dependent on Indian cotton which meant their profit margin has been hit and yet they had to import from India, setting aside their H&D, as otherwise they would have lost the market share, which is then difficult to regain. Their continuous begging to the Americans and the Europeans to offer them preferential trade (GSP+) has so far fallen on deaf ears. The floods have badly affected the current cotton crops. OTOH, India has been having a bountiful crop in the last few years. This year, China is also facing a cotton crop deficit of significant proportions and looks to India for import. of course, the price realization can be higher from PRC. Moreover, the Indian cotton products export looks like picking up and Indian consumers have requested the government to export only the surplus which request, the GoI has accepted in the last few days. It would be therefore better to export the surplus to PRC and squeeze TSP even as we gift her with USD 25 Million aid. JMT.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby shiv » 01 Sep 2010 20:52

Sorry - slightly OT but the issue is cotton:
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Ind ... 2-3-1.html
India imposed restriction on cotton exports to keep domestic prices down.

Armed with a bumper crop after a good monsoon, Indian groups are expected to begin exporting to Pakistan from October.

Some mills are already calling for regulated exports however, fearing a spurt in demand from Pakistan could send prices soaring in India. Analysts warned that India should export only surplus

Cotton prices in India are at a peak for the year, up by 12 percent in August compared

...

Pakistan has been importing cotton from India for the past few years now and is one of the main importers of cotton from India, which is the second largest producer of the crop worldwide after China.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Manishw » 01 Sep 2010 21:01

Good move to kill porxistani apparel export's, but I have it from reliable sources that India will be a net importer of cotton within 3 yrs. because of Internal apparel demand.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby shiv » 01 Sep 2010 21:08

Cross post..

arindam wrote:Another day.. another blast...

6 killed, 88 injured in Lahore serial blasts: Official



terrorism
flood
cricket scandal
terrorism
Part of the original country is Bangladesh
Parts in US control
Parts in Taliban control
Parts in Chinese control
Karachi under nobody's control
And the government wants to make war with India and capture kashmir or punish India in some way..


Folks - this is a nation in serious crisis. Don't call it failure if you don't like the word. But what is it?

ramana
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 01 Sep 2010 21:14

x-posts...


krisna wrote:Pakistan's political future questioned after the flood

article basically questions whether TSPA will take over or not.

"The stock of the government, which was not very high to begin with, has fallen pretty low. Fewer and fewer people are taking Zardari seriously,"


The Army's profile is going up," Amir continues. "Its PR is going up. When Kayani undertakes a visit, it's much better choreographed, and that creates an impression that the Army is really much more efficient, although we have no tabulated figures on the relief effort taken by the Army or the impact on the overall situation."

He doesn't think the Army would step in. "I think they are pretty happy and pretty comfortable seeing the civilian process bleed like this," he says.


And Kayani, regarded as a consummate professional, probably knows "what the limitations in any misadventure may be," and the international approbation Pakistan could face, particularly from Europe, if the democratically elected civilian government were thrown out.


As evidence he cites Pakistan's ever-growing defense budget and the widely held view that the nation's defense and foreign policy come under the purview of the Army. "When they can get the same results behind the scenes," he says, "why come on the scene?"


Dus percenti can safely take some cuts from the aid till election time. :mrgreen:

ramana
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 01 Sep 2010 21:17

shiv wrote:
krisna wrote:^^^^
1) will the raw cotton go as Indian aid to pakistan thru' UNO or is it separate. either way wont the labels be made in sdres land. Dont the pawkis know that only yindia can supply that.
2) will the yeevil sdres not jack up the prices of raw cotton if it is pawki exported :mrgreen:
3) why does not pawki RAPEs make noises about not accepting yeevil sdre cotton as they did for Indian aid. I have not read any reports so far. when it hits their musharraf they gubo and shut their upper orifices. :rotfl:


I think it is important not to confuse the army and establishment with all Pakis. It is nice and funny to talk as if they are all the same - but if we have to make any progress in Pakistan we have to separate some groups and some people from others. There is already a lot of official and unofficial trade and it is weighed in Indias favor. We must to try to be too chankian here an say "Ha ha we will jack up this and screw Pakis" - because typically someone else - say Bangladesh ot China will buy our cotton cheap and sell it to Pakis at a higher price. Market forces are market forces and businessmen are typically not morons. they may be cheats - but not morons.

If Pakistan needs 10,000 tons of cotton and they can get it cheapest and fastest from India it would hardly be clever to say "Balls we will jack up our prices so it makes it cheaper for Pakis to import from Australia". Our cotton will be left unsold and our farmers may suffer because there could be a glut in India. If the Paki mill wants Indian cotton at competitive prices and the Paki government prevents that from happening then there will be anger at the Paki government. But if we fail to make the sale then we are scoring an own goal.



If there is any group in TSP that is pyara to me its the TTP. Its like Shakuni mama is favorite for Krishna

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Johann » 01 Sep 2010 21:31

shiv wrote:Cross post..

arindam wrote:Another day.. another blast...

6 killed, 88 injured in Lahore serial blasts: Official



terrorism
flood
cricket scandal
terrorism
Part of the original country is Bangladesh
Parts in US control
Parts in Taliban control
Parts in Chinese control
Karachi under nobody's control
And the government wants to make war with India and capture kashmir or punish India in some way..


Folks - this is a nation in serious crisis. Don't call it failure if you don't like the word. But what is it?


There's failure and collapse. North Korea is a failed state by most measures, but the leadership and the state structure that supports it is in no danger of collapse. Their coercive capacity and willingness to use it keeps the population in line, and keeps foreign donors, even their enemies paying.

Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union were federal states that collapsed down to their component republics, but for the most part no further.
Somalia is not only a failed, but perennially collapsing state run by warlords and in some cases proto-states like Puntland.

The real question people have is whether failure in Pakistan will lead to NK like state, Yugoslav/Soviet style dissolution of union, Somali like total collapse, or perhaps even some sort of combination.

ramana
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 01 Sep 2010 21:44

If it werent for US glue right now TSP will become three parts: Balochistan, Sindh and Pakjab. POK will revert to India and K-P (wonder where L&D went away) will merge back into Afghanistan where they belong as they were carved out of Afghanistan. The minor problem is that Curzon took away districts from Pakjab and Balochistan to create NWFP. What will be status of those is a question?

So I guess it willbe more like Yugoslavia than Somalia.

I would give the option to TSP to create a new mega state/region in India called Sulemania after the Suleiman Mountain range. It will be like UP before the split of Uttranchal etc.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 01 Sep 2010 22:00

ramana wrote:If it werent for US glue right now TSP will become three parts: Balochistan, Sindh and Pakjab.


There are different agencies in USA (military, CIA, Think-Tanks, Business, etc.) whose combined tendencies and sympathies go into the creation of a Pakistan policy. All these stakeholders have a small coterie who make the decisions.

In American politics, it is extremely important to continuously target and lobby certain decision-makers. There is sufficient material that Pakistan provides on a continual basis, which could real anger many people in Washington. But it doesn't! Why?

Because those who are angered are less motivated than the groups who want to continue with this 'alliance'! One needs to increase the motivation level of those who wouldn't mind ditching Pakistan.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 01 Sep 2010 22:28

X-post...
Tribune op-ed:

State and Army in Pakistan

State and Army in Pakistan
How floods bring a harvest of gratitude

by Punyapriya Dasgupta

Of the two high-born Mirabeau brothers who lived through the French Revolution, the younger would have been quickly forgotten but for his legendary alcoholic prowess and one pithy observation he made: “Other states have their armies; in Prussia the army has a state.” Prussia no longer exists except in history books, but the truth in Mirabeau junior’s 12 words lives. In the immediate neighbourhood of India in the west an army has a State called Pakistan and in the east Myanmar (Burma) has been turned into a property of its army. The Myanmarese Generals’ grip on power is brutish. After refusing to abide by the electorate’s clear verdict two decades ago they are going to stage another election with preconditions tailored to their determination to hang on to ruthless oligarchic power. With its Nobel laureate leader Aung San Suu Kyi in the 14th year of house arrest and many of her party comrades in prison, the National League for Democracy (NLD), the winner of the 1990 election, will take no part in the contemplated bogus polls. In Pakistan, geopolitically a far more significant state in global politics, the current moves by the army are subtle and call for more attention.

After many doubts and fears about its genuineness Pakistan’s main political parties participated in the February 2008 general election and accepted the results as fair. The President Gen Pervez Musharraf went into exile and his successor as Army Chief Gen Ashfaque Kayani called all military officers heading civilian administrative units, including even dairy farms, back to the barracks. Pakistan today is trying to project an image of a civilian-ruled democracy. A low buzz of amusement mixed with incredulity inside the country as well as outside greeted the recent announcement in Islamabad that the Prime Minister had extended the tenure of General Kayani by three years.

The reality of the power equation in Pakistan had been demonstrated earlier. The civilian leaders of the government were made to realise that they must not venture into the army’s domains. The government of President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani was rapped on the knuckles when they ordered transfer of the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI) to the Ministry of Interior. Within a few hours the Gilani government issued a second statement saying that the notification placing the ISI under the Interior Ministry had been “misunderstood” which meant that the ISI remained with the Ministry of Defence — effectively with the army. In its scope and nature of operations the ISI resembles America’s CIA with the very important difference that in Pakistan it does not report to any civilian President.

In 33 of the 63 years since its creation Pakistan has been ruled by military Presidents. In the democratic interludes after the death of Gen Zia-ul-Haq the army got civilian Presidents to dismiss elected Prime Ministers — the late Benazir Bhutto twice, (in 1990 and 1996) and Mr Nawaz Sharif in 1993. Mr Sharif’s second ouster was directly by the army when he tried to sack the Army Chief, General Musharraf, and was himself thrown not only out of office but of the country as well. This chastisement of Mr Sharif was endorsed by the Supreme Court under the “doctrine of necessity”. After the make-believe restoration of democracy the shortsighted leaders of Pakistan’s main political parties vied among themselves in handing over the whip hand to the army.

Ms Benazir and Mr Sharif assiduously spread well-founded reports of their corruption and lobbied the army for the dethronement of whoever among them was in power at any time. In brutally frank words, neither of them was above prostituting Pakistan’s politics. In the current phase, politicians are trying to show themselves as more circumspect, but attempts at currying favour with the army leadership are evident. Pakistani commentators have interpreted the extension of the tenure of General Kayani as the Army Chief for three years as an insurance taken out for themselves by President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani.

As of now, no army sword overhangs the civilian regime. But a question has arisen about the relative importance of the civil and military authorities in the State of Pakistan. Mr Richard Holbrooke, a peripatetic American diplomat currently hopping in and out of Pakistan and Afghanistan, has revealed, perhaps inadvertently, to the embarrassment of the Gilani government that General Kayani “is an enormously powerful political factor” in Pakistan and “we have extensive discussions with him.” This is confirmation of what was unofficially known to all: that Pakistan’s foreign relations too are guided largely by the army. Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi may be impolite to his Indian counterpart — as it happened the last time they met in Islamabad — but he has to be respectful to what the army says about the handling of his portfolio.

The cataclysmic floods in Pakistan have brought the army a huge harvest of gratitude from the people nobody could have foreseen. The Generals had for long been reviled for their suppression of democracy and turning the country into their fief. At the head of every profitable organisation of the government sat an officer of the armed forces. General Kayani ended this system and since mid-July he has been seen visiting the flood-hit areas time and again. By contrast, the misery of his people made no difference to President Zardari enjoying his visit to France and Britain. He would not forego even his scheduled visit to the 16th century chateau in Normandy which his late wife Benazir Bhutto’s family had acquired and now belongs to him.

At home Prime Minister Gilani found coping with the floods beyond the capacity of his government and confessed it. He thought this was good enough reason why government officials were not seen trying to help the distressed people. Mr Gilani was taken on a visit to one relief centre and this one turned out to be a fake. The armed forces have filled all the gaps left by the government and are extracting all the credit for it. Wherever they go to rescue people or provide relief they advertise it with the help of banners.

Journalists are on frequent flood surveys in military helicopters, and Pakistan’s TV networks are full of pictures of the army providing succour to the affected people. In some refugee centres cries — spontaneous or tutored — are heard: “Army zindabad”. For the first time in Pakistan the armed forces are scoring high in winning the hearts and minds of the people — a fact testified by respected newspaper columnists. This will help General Kayani to guide Pakistan to wherever he intends to take it.


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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 02 Sep 2010 20:28

Nightwatch 9/1/2010 on the Lahore killings of Shias

Pakistan: Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP, aka the Pakistani Taliban) claimed responsibility for several suicide attacks on 1 September against a Shiite religious procession in Lahore, Punjab Province, that killed 33 people and wounded 150. According to an audio statement from spokesman Qari Hussain Mehsud, the group warned that more attacks would follow.

Comment: Neither Ramadan observances or a national emergency resulting from the floods seem to have any impact on the Pakistani Taliban other than to spur them to take advantage of others.



Its sad he doesn't get what is happening in TSP. With deepening radicalization the more green/Islamists will kill the less pious. And per the Sunni doctrinairs Shias are not Muslims. Hence it doesnt matter that its Ramazan period. On the contrary it might even e considered more pious to do the dastardly acts.

Truly the biblical saying "Sow the wind and reap the whirlwind!" comes to mind.
The sowing was done by US.

Or to quote a Sanskirt proverb "Vinasha kaale, viprtihi buddhi!"

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pakistans amazing shrinking private sector

Postby vnadendla » 03 Sep 2010 02:52

http://blogs.hindustantimes.com/foreign ... te-sector/
*****Snippet********
One, gross fixed capital formation by the private sector is a descending curve. This key sign of confidence in the future of an economy, GFCF in the private sector in 2009-10 was less than what it was in 2007 and almost the same as what GFCF was in 2005. That was in absolute terms, as a percentage of GDP the figures looks even worse.

Two, there is a startling trend of de-corporatization in Pakistan. In other words, firms preferring to get out of the stockmarket and the formal sector because of bad regulations or poor economic environment. In 1995, Pakistan had 13 manufacturing firms with a paid up capital over Rs 500 million. In 2009, this figure was down to only two. In 1990 there were 58 manufacturing companies with paid up capital between Rs 50 and Rs 500 million. The number in 2009: four.

Only small sector industries saw their numbers keep rising. But as the Pakistan Economic Survey of 2009, points out this effectively means these firms are giving up on trying to scale themselves larger. The State Bank of Pakistan figures show this to be the case: new capital raised and issued in the economy went from Rs 123.7 billion in 2004-05 to Rs 101.4 billion in 2008-09. Bank credit disbursement as a percentage of GDP has gone off a cliff: 6.7% of GDP in 2004-05 and 0.14 in 2008-09

*****************

I'd love to see corresponding #s for India and Bangladesh

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby svinayak » 03 Sep 2010 11:52

http://www.amazon.com/Systemic-Shock-De ... 0812500385
Fiction
Systemic Shock
Dean Ing (Author)


Directly to the south of the RUS lay the Associated Islamic
Republics, in a vast crescent from Morocco to Iran, abutting India
which was still officially the world's largest democratic nation;
unofficially a polyglot nation in the process of trading chaos for
Islam.

Since the 1960's, pundits had been predicting that India '… can't
keep this up much longer.' Some observers meant her
overpopulation; India's women, a miracle of dreadful fecundity,
steadily produced mouths that could not be fed, much less find
employment. Some referred to India's acceptance of fourteen
official languages. Still others indicated India's rejection of western
ties while fumbling away her parliamentary democracy.
Underlying India's manifold ills was the central fact that, until recent
years, three-quarters of her citizens espoused caste restrictions in
some form of Hinduism. But recently, tens of millions
ofharijans—untouchables scorned by ruling castes—had become
literate, and at that point began an accelerating conversion to Islam
urged on by India's already prominent Moslem minority. One might
almost suggest certain parallels between the fast-rising conservative
religious movements of the two most populous democratic nations
on earth. By 1988 the Reformed Jan'ta party, a coalition of reform
groups, was led by Moslems. Amid these delicate adjustments
came the River War with Pakistan.
Moslem Pakistan had several times struggled to produce a
democracy, falling back on martial law each time. Thanks to her
draconian rule she lost her eastern half to India in 1971, and when
India annexed Bangladesh she welcomed more Moslems into
parliament. Still devoutly Moslem, still incapable of sustaining a
democracy, still wrangling with India and fumbling with nuclear
energy, Pakistan existed largely with western aid until 1988, when
she lost the River War.

The Sutlej River cascades from Himalayan headwaters, crossing
India's Punjab before entering Pakistan. Pakistan was well into her
project to irrigate fallow land with Sutlej water when India, with
desert property of her own, began to divert too much of the Sutlej.
Pakistan protested. India borrowed a smile from Buddha. And
while debate smouldered in the UN, Pakistan's agribiz choked on
dust. Pakistan gathered her American tanks and RUS
Kalashnikovs, and struck.

Twenty days later, Pakistan was only a memory. If India was poor
in fertilizer, it was because a full one-third of her national budget
was spent on arms. As her exports of steel, cement, and machinery
mushroomed, so did her imports of French helicopters. Profits
from her new shipyards funded her navy. Pakistan had suicidally
attacked a nation whose one prosperity lay in arms, a growing giant
with growing power.
India overflew Sukkur and Karachi in two waves. The first was a
horde of small choppers firing minicannon and homing missiles; the
second was a wave of larger choppers transporting whole infantry
companies. Pakistan surrendered, obtained recognition as the State
of Sulaiman, and was instantly absorbed by India as educated
Moslems everywhere gave thanks.
It was thought possible that
India had deliberately provoked the River War. Perhaps 'possible'
was too weak a word.
Now, in 1996, the fifty million Moslems of Sulaiman formed a
gentle buffer as India's border with the AIR crescent. India was
now one-third Moslem; her Hindu majority found it easier to
accommodate Islam every day.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 03 Sep 2010 12:36

Process of Total Chaos and Subsequent Redemption

Johann wrote:The real question people have is whether failure in Pakistan will lead to NK like state, Yugoslav/Soviet style dissolution of union, Somali like total collapse, or perhaps even some sort of combination.


Some days back we had an interesting case where there was a quarrel between some Mehsud tribesmen and Usman Punjabi's men in Miranshah, North Waziristan, over the rich widow of a deceased militant, and it ended with Usman Punjabi's death.

What this tells us, is that the potential is there for Islamist groups to fight amongst each other for their share of the booty.

Now let's consider a situation, where the singular entity keeping Pakistan together, the Army has fragmented, for which there are also scenarios. Somehow I don't foresee a Yugoslavian situation, where there are nationalities that assert themselves. Nationalities can only assert themselves where there have been organized secessionist movements having a broad support amongst a nationality, e.g. the Baluchis, the Balawaristanis. During any collapse of the state, these organized movements could take the leadership in bringing some semblance of order to their respective regions and bringing the region under a collective leadership.

In Pushtun Areas, one can imagine a federation of tribes, where each tribe has an area carved out for itself, or an area where a single tribe dominates, and these tribes together form a council, a jirga, to consider issues which have national and extra-territorial relevance or for resolving inter-tribal feuds.

As far as Pakjab and Sindh are concerned, IMO, they would be hit the hardest. Due to the urbanization and development of both elites and middle classes, the tribal hierarchies have broken down. The state machinery has allowed the elite to fleece the country, without needing to give much thought to the plight of the common people. With the break-down of this state machinery, the common people would not be willing to accept the leadership of the present elites.

The Islamists too would not be able to establish a central control, as at the moment there are several militant groups, which are either held together by the Army's control over them, or due to some understanding between the charismatic leaders of these groups in view of a common challenge - the state, the kafirdom, etc. These alliances would be mostly opportunistic. Every Islamist/Jihadist leader would be competing with the other and be wary of head-hunting, poaching, encroachments into one's territories, betrayal to enemies, etc.

In fact, I foresee Islamist gangs marauding the common people, either taking away their kids and making them child soldiers, or if they have no kids, then taking away their possessions and raping the women. Islamism is going to be in name only and the Islamist leader of the gang, would issue fatwas, which would enhance his own position. Something similar to what we saw in Swat with Mullah Radio.

So basically I see a huge Somalia with the difference, that unlike Somalia, where the Islamists are trying to establish a single command over the country by getting rid of the warlords, in Pakistan the Islamists would be too disunited to really be able to do that. In Pakistan the Islamists would be the warlords. Whereas Somalia has a chance of coming out of its misery under some Islamist leadership, Pakistan would have no such chance.

Also there would be no comparison to the 90s Taliban Regime. 90s Taliban Regime in Afghanistan was under the command of Mullah Omar. He was the undisputed Emir. But mostly the unity in the Taliban Movement was the handiwork of ISI. ISI could keep the Taliban together, especially as ISI controlled the financing, the organizational hierarchy, the war-theater strategy, the arms, etc. In case of Pakistan, there would be no higher power. Even Al Qaeda cannot provide the country controlled by Islamist Gangs with structure and direction.

Pakistan's demise into chaos would be total.

What is in it for India?

Well if India is able to keep the refugees at bay and our borders closed, the situation would be very advantageous indeed. In Pakistan due to the activities of the Islamist Gangs, Islam itself would have lost out much of its moral sway. The moderate Mullahs would have already taken their leave from the field through bullets, courtesy of the Islamist Gangs, eager to establish their own writ over an area. We have seen some of this in Afghanistan and tribal areas of Pakistan, where tribal leaders and moderate mullahs have been killed off.

So what would be the right strategy for India?

1) Support every Islamist Gang in Pakistan through different handlers and agencies in India - financially, logistically, militarily, and through food and medical supplies. No other groups or countries should be allowed to exert their influence. Any Arabs, Chinese, Americans fishing in these troubled waters need to be taken off the board, using of course, the services of rival Islamist Gangs.

2) Ensure that there is rancor and strife between any two neighboring Islamist Gangs, and occasional bloodshed. India's hand should not be visible in all this. This should create a history of bad blood amongst the Islamist Gangs, which do not allow them to reconcile that easily.

3) Create an awareness in the international community, that religious minorities (Christians, Hindus, Ahmediya, Shia, etc) are taking the brunt of this break-down in law and order, and they need protection. This is to be packaged as a humanitarian tragedy.

4) Pass legislation in the Indian Parliament asking the Indian Government to secure islands of religious minority populations within Pakistan through military means.

5) Send Indian Soldiers to establish and secure 'safe area enclaves' within Pakistan for religious minorities (actually mostly for the Dharmic variety). These safe areas would be provided with food, medicines, water, security, training.

6) Through well-placed agents in Pakjab and Sindh, first countryside and then urban areas, get the people of an area - a village, a neighborhood, which does not belong to a religious minority, e.g. of the Dharmic kind, to pledge allegiance to a minority religion, in order to also avail of Indian protection from the marauding Islamist Gangs. Once the village/neighborhood has converted, India can send Indian forces in into the area.

7) Through military and administrative training of the religious minorities and those converted into a minority religion (e.g. Dharmic religion), and with additional support by Indian forces in emergency cases, India would be able to leave the care of the area in the hands of the locals, freeing the Indian contingent in the area for other areas.

8) Gradually as the area under a minority religion in Pakistan increases, India can start emasculating the local Islamist Gangs, through inter-gang wars, through stopping aid to a previously supported gang, through effecting betrayals in their ranks, through aerial bombing, through decapitating, through fighting them out, etc.

9) Once an Islamist Gang has been cornered or brought under sufficient pressure, Indian forces can offer the Islamist Gang to reform, and to convert to a minority religion (e.g. Dharmic one) and under proper guidance from Indian advisors to oversee the conversion of the populace under their own 'jurisdiction' to the same minority religion, in which case the ex-Islamist Gang would be allowed to function and survive.

10) As the ink-drops of Indian Protection spread along with an expanding converted population, a time would come when the rest of the population still unconverted would see the light of day and take the plunge.

IMHO, this is a viable strategy, and if conducted over 20 years, can lead to a reintegration of Pakjab and Sindh into the Indian Union as 'reformed' regions, totally compatible with the values and norms of the Indian Civilization.

Baluchistan and Balawaristan should have been incorporated into the Indian Union much before this Process of Total Chaos and Subsequent Redemption even starts.

As mentioned, before anything positive can start in Pakistan, Pakistan would have to stew in its Islamist juices until all molecules of Islam have broken down. There are steps India can take to see to it that Pakistan lands in the cauldron and there are step Indian can take to increase the heat under the cauldron, and all in the name of Islam. Any serious call for Democracy, Secularism, Islamic Reform, Stability in Pakistan by India is shooting ourselves in our own feet, though officially it is recommended that India sticks to a benign and supposedly helpless position. India needs a direction for Pakistan, a strategy, and what is a better strategy than to give the drug addict, that what it wants the most - Islam.

Basically this is a Hammer and Anvil strategy - Islamist Gangs being the Hammer and Indian Forces the Anvil. Another thing worth noting is that such a strategy built on controlling the chaos and providing the people a tunnel out based on their religious persuasion is not based on compulsion. Indian Forces will not be in Pakistan doing any missionary work or converting Muslims. Indian State need not compromise its secular credentials.

That can be undertaken is by private religious organizations in India using private security companies and providing information to the Indian State of populations in Pakistan requiring Indian protection, and lobbying for intervention by India.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Philip » 03 Sep 2010 14:07

The incomprehensible brazen attitude of Pakis when faced with wrongdoing,to try and shift the blame elsewhere (as we're seeing in the cricket scam with their HC blaming India and the media blaming RAW of all people!),is that to the Paki elite,Pakistan is the centre of the world.It is Pakistan founded upon Islam ,created by providence through Jinnah,is spiritually,physically,heroically,scientifically,mystically (djinn power),militarily (the "one Paki soldier equal to 10 Hindoos " syndrome),the formost nation on the planet,where all other states have to bend to its will.No matter what mischief and chicanery it is upto,what falsehoods and untruth it spouts,Pakis insist that it is their divine right to do so,ordained by the Almighty and that the Pakis are the "chosen people" of the Islamic world to carry out heaven's divine mission.

Thus the "Crusaders and Infidels" must support it as penance for their heresy! As for the other Islamic nations,barring Saudi Arabia,where the royals are the "keepers of the two holy placs",even here the Pakis protect the Saudis who therefore must bankroll them,the rest of the Islamist pack must acknowledge Pak as "leader/fuhrer" by divine right.Hence the demands since Partition that India must hand over J&K without a fight,across the table,Afghanistan must be handed over as Pak's strategic depth, and that the US must pressurise India into doing so for absolution for all its sins against Muslims.The Paki elite imagine themselves as being a combination of the Pharaohs of ancient Egypt,the Moghul rulers of the subcontinent and as the present day Caliphate of the Ummah,successors to the last Caliphate of the Ottoman dynasty.With this divine sanction,Pakis can do no wrong,"the untouchables", and the world must let it be so and come to its aid whenever it is in crisis.for the duty of infidels and latter day crusaders is to serve Pak and "manage its mismanagement"!

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Manishw » 03 Sep 2010 14:23

Talking about misconceptions/ misperceptions

Philip wrote:The Paki elite imagine themselves as being a combination of the Pharaohs of ancient Egypt,the Moghul rulers of the subcontinent and as the present day Caliphate of the Ummah,successors to the last Caliphate of the Ottoman dynasty.With this divine sanction,

:rotfl: :rotfl:
-----------------------------------------------------------------
@RajeshA Ji Kindly xpost in strategic sub-continent scenario... Great Post.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Ramanna Ji if you were referring to me, I meant RajeshA Ji only while appreciating Philip Ji's post.Apologies for not being clear.Made certain correction's.Will be more careful in future.
Last edited by Manishw on 04 Sep 2010 10:49, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 03 Sep 2010 20:26

You mean Philipji!

Nigthwatch, 2 Sept., 2010

Pakistan: During a tour of the devastation from the floods, Prime Minister Gilani said, "Pakistan is passing through a critical phase... we are literally in troubled waters. No country alone can tackle this kind of disaster." He described the effects of the flooding as even exceeding the destruction from the 2005 earthquake.

Comment: Leveraging its status as a nuclear weapons state, Pakistani leaders are engaging in a subtle form of extortion. Gilani almost is demanding that the community of nations bail out Pakistan, without vocalizing the obviously implied, "or else."

Gilani also is not wrong in describing the situation as critical. Farmland and herds are wiped out. The floods have affected one in eight Pakistanis, according to Gilani. The government has not begun to assess the damage to infrastructure.

The situation also is politically critical because the government's military relief efforts have generated more favorable support than the government's civilian efforts. The difference is the military gets popular gratitude and the government gets criticized.

The speed and extent of flood relief, crisis stabilization and recovery will determine whether elected government will survive or be replaced by another military regime. Gilani's implied message to the community of nations is that if the community supports democracy in Pakistan, give now. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:


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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Pulikeshi » 03 Sep 2010 20:59

Johann wrote:
There's failure and collapse. ...
The real question people have is whether failure in Pakistan will lead to NK like state, Yugoslav/Soviet style dissolution of union, Somali like total collapse, or perhaps even some sort of combination.


What is the "Chandrasekhar limit?" :mrgreen:

If Somalia is a 'Black Hole' it does not seem like TSP will end up that way.
Reason, whosoever wants to be a Asian/Middle-Eastern power will need to control this region.
If US, China and Saudi fail to fill the hole up and prevent collapse.
It will fall on India's plate -
for now poor India has decided to grow economically and outsource her foreign policy :P

Dissolution, while appealing to many, will not happen unless and until the cost to hold
a smaller set of states in some economic or political union becomes more attractive than the
cost to hold the state of TSP together. This is a distinct possibility.
However, the complexity of handling multiple states is a larger headache for outside powers.
Even, GOI, I suspect, is not convinced of this option. However, there is no alternative.

In the long run the only stable geo-political solution is for the Ganga plain
& Deccan plateau to provide good governance and influence if not control the Indus plains.
Other powers are welcome to use their scarce resources
as long as they are able to pretend an alternate stability is possible.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 03 Sep 2010 21:04

Can you write a short note on this idea?

Thanks, ramana

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Is Indus plain inherently unstable?

Postby vnadendla » 03 Sep 2010 21:42

I do understand the unstable nature of Indus Plains (think Collapse of Indus valley civilization, current floods and the very real threat of their reoccurence). It is possible to envision an alternate future for Pakistan where they makeup with India. India can build large dams in J&Kto control the flow of rivers and provide water when needed to Pakistan . Pakistan provides transit to India for Oil and from India for goods. i.e Pakistan becomes India's Canada. A technical solution to geo-political issues is possible. This is the option Pakistan's didn't take.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby ramana » 03 Sep 2010 22:14

Think why? Why the constant confrontation and why the constant dribblle of 'aid and advice" to keep them alive but not strong enough to damage elsewhere which is the right hunting grounds for them if they are Zarb-e-Momin?

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2010 02:56

X-Posted from Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I Thread

brihaspati wrote:I would be rather cautious about letting islamist stewing go to extreme lengths.


brihaspati garu,

I see it this way. Islamism is a train and if we put everything into stopping it, we would only waste our energies, and instead of stopping, it would at the maximum only slow down a bit - with energies I mean appeasement, jizya, or military confrontation.

However if we throw a lot of coal into the engine, we can speed it up, and bring about a crash.

brihaspati wrote:There is not a single country or region that has any precedence of such stewing leading to turning away from Islamism.

It would be possible to change form there - but there has been only one unambiguous example - that of the Reconquista in Spain. The longer time you let a region stew in Islamism, the harder and more brutal are the techniques needed to get rid of the roots later and the process does not take place automatically. We can ponder Iran, Arabia, Iraq, Malaysia, Turkey, Indonesia, and the sub-Saharan African Muslim dominated countries, including the classic case of Somalia - none, absolutely none changed from within or broke up after long and hard stewing.


Pakistan is already 96% Muslim. That figure can move only higher.

To be honest, I don't consider the above countries as really riding the same tiger as Pakistan.

In Pakistan, the Islamists have always been a partner of the establishment and the Jihadis have always been an employee of the establishment. Not only that, in Pakistan there is a proliferation of extremist Islamist parties and Jihadi groups.

In Pakistan, the establishment is corrupt to the core, and they have corrupted the Islamists along with them. On BRF one has heard of Mullah Diesel. Also the proliferation of Jihadi groups has meant that there is no central authority amongst the Jihadis either on whom to look upon. Even the Chief of Army Staff, the Chief Terrorist does not enjoy much reverence. The Jihadis know that he too is corrupt, and sleeps with the Crusaders. The multitude of tribes and ethnic groups living in troubled regions of Pakistan, has meant another dimension of militant groups outside of state control or only partially under their control.

So we have on the one hand Islamists and Jihadis who have been corrupted along with the establishment and on the other a proliferation of them on a scale and tribal and sectarian allegiance which does not allow centrality of control.

brihaspati wrote:That is alright if future Indians do not feel nauseous and squeamish about what then they will have to do to carry out the clean-up. If we cannot be sure about such ruthlessness, then it is better to intervene before extreme stewing and actively break up Pak and of course China's bloated empire.


The trick is to corrupt all Islamist groups to such an extent, that they remain Islamist only in name. The trick is to have the Jihadis spill so much blood and fill the newspapers with stories of their blood-thirst, that man loses all faith in their religion. What India would need to provide is simply a bridge to the land of sanity, where there is value of human life.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshG » 04 Sep 2010 05:10

Johann wrote:
RajeshG wrote:... "Islamic Nationalism" is just brilliant stuff. Just the term itself explains the junoon and the contradictions that go with it in a very precise way.

Your pitting of islamic-nationalism and global-jihad as 2 opposing forces is something i dont agree-with/understand. The other thing i have a hard time agreeing with is the usage of personalities/events/dates as a reason of the mess. I will post if i can articulate these objections in some sensible way.

Thanks.


Pakistani Islamic Nationalism does not seek confrontation with the Global Jihad, but rather seeks to harness it as a mobilising agent and force multiplier as it did in the 1980s and 90s. Unfortunately Global Jihad's ideology takfir, which means they are ready to condemn anyone who deviates even slightly from their line as kaffirs and traitors deserving of death.


Johann,

There is a subtle difference in how i understand this. Pakistan doesnt have a choice on whether it can harness Global Jihad or not.

The term "Islamic Nationalism" has 2 parts to it. Islam and Nation.

Islam cannot but globalize (its not for somebody to harness) and Nationalism cannot but localize. "Islamic Nationalism" then gets caught in this contradiction of whether to globalize or localize. That is why i dont think the term "muslim chauvinism" or "muslim nationalism" really applies to Pakistaniyat. It may start out like that but then it gets a life of its own.

On top of it "Islam" being based on Koran and the word of God makes it interesting for Pakistan. The word of God is absolute and you have got to take the whole thing as-is. Ecumenism or Secularism wont help Pakistan at all. Both of those concepts will dilute the Islamic foundation and will result in failure of Pakistaniyat.

Pakistan's success or failure will depend on the success or failure of "Islamic Nationalism" as that is what Pakistan is -> an Islamic Nation.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2010 11:59

I am reposting something I wrote about the topic of Managing Pakistan's Failure in Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent Thread on 13 Aug 2009. Maybe our understanding of Pakistan has changed somewhat since then.

A deaf and dumb porki named Shehz says
Shehz wrote:Yesterday was East Pakistan, and today it may be Balauchistan.
Tomorrow, if Indian Govt, gives US $ 1 Bil to AZ for a signature, 1 Bil for senators and national assembly ministers (to be distributed amongst them), and another 1 Bil to NS for not opposing, Kashmir will be gifted to them in a heartbeat.



I offer here an alternate strategy.

Around 200 million people and no future is something that awaits Pakistan. Food Security will sooner or later collapse, and there will hardly foreign exchange left to buy from outside.

In 10 years time of steady growth, India would have the moolah to buy off any and every politician in Pakistan, their aunt and the local general. India would be richer, much much richer, and Pakistan would be poorer, much much poorer, and the Ummah would be going through the Peak Oil pangs.

So if we continue with MMS policies towards Pakistan (without signing on anything, that is), where India becomes the lesser evil than USA in Pakistan, in 10 years time Pakistan would be ripe for the picking.

With money India can buy off the politicians and the junta leadership to an extent, that we could impose an arbitrary map, political system and arrangement with India as we like.

$ 7-8 billion would suffice. Why go for war? Just buy the whole of the goddamn pork!

PoK and Baluchistan can be made part of India. Sindh can have an associated status, something like 'Azad Jammu & Kashmir' has in Pakistan and Seraikistan and Pakjab can be included in some form of confederation with India. Of course, all would have to go through brihaspati ji's mental detoxification camps for further progress.

Just a thought, and as Raja Ram's says, take it for what it is worth.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2010 12:02

I am reposting something I wrote about the topic of Managing Pakistan's Failure in Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent Thread on 13 Aug 2009. Maybe our understanding of Pakistan has changed somewhat since then.

brihaspati wrote:I do think your suggestion has good merit. Only thing I am worried about is that some other entities, like the Saudis may have a lot of petro-cash to extend the auction process interminably. Where they will be weaker is of course the military side. So we may need a combination of both and not rely only on one.


There are ways of course to neutralize Saudi participation in the bidding. They need to be kept busy elsewhere.
  • Palace intrigues
  • Uprising in the North-East where there are substantive Shias, possible using the good offices of Iran
  • Al Qaida pressure
  • Media exposures about Saudi complicity in financing terrorist groups
  • etc.

Of course, in the mean time, the Pushtun/Taliban pressure on Pakistan polity should remain and increase; as should the arms race; as should lawlessness; as should our unfortunate planning for filling our dams of Western Rivers, as should crime and lawlessness....

The naak men dum scenario would speed up Pakistan's ultimate capitulation to India. They wanted to finish us with a thousand cuts. We will finish them off first with a million frustrations.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby abhischekcc » 04 Sep 2010 17:10

Some other ways to keep Saudi meddling at bay:

Friendly ones:
1. Send IA to participate in the defence of Saudi peninsular countries, which they have invited from us (presumably to draw us away from Iran?).
2. Invite KSA investment into India on a large scale, insist on political strings to KSA behaviour towards India's security environment.

Unfriendly ones:
1. Investigate EVERY saudi charity, delay their funds, take actions against their people (saudi citizines, not Indians) here. Open old cases of the like.
2. Become friendly with Iran and organize joint naval exercises in the Perisna gulf to 'control' the sea, ostensibly to protect assets from Somali pirates :)
3. Expose saudi human rights violations against Indians - including kidnapping of wives.
4. Supply men, materials, training to yemeni rebels and work them over.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby svinayak » 05 Sep 2010 05:45

From Geo politics of South Asia

There is plenty of evidence to support the contention that India saw Pakistan
in 1947 as a temporary aberration of the political map. In accepting the plan for
partition, Congress issued a most blatant geographical and ideological statement:

Geography and the mountains and the seas fashioned India as she is, and no human
agency can change that shape or come in the way of her final destiny.... [w]hen the
present passions have subsided, India’s problems will be viewed from their proper
perspective and the false doctrine of two nations in India will be discredited and
discarded by all. (cited in Mansergh 1978)

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Pratyush » 05 Sep 2010 08:14

Acharya Ji,

This from the congress. No wonder the Pakis are so paranoid about assimilation. That they have created a society that is absolutely unfit for governance both for the Pakis themselves and any one from the outside.

Truly a benighted land. It seems the only solution for the Pakis is to put the fear of god in their minds if they are to be assimilated within the Indian midst.

Brihispati ji,

Upon reading your posts on the GI plains of North India, you have repeatedly mentioned that the fighters having killed resisting the hords. The survivors of the population consisted of compromisers’ which has resulted in the politics of appeasement in the GI plains. As seen today. (This is at least my reading of your posts.)

The question that is raised in my mind is, is this a natural process for any large society facing similar pressure. That, the loss of the fighters will create a culture of compromise. Or were there other factors that were at work?

The reason I ask this question is, I see the Pakis moving towards a future where everyone else is fighting every one else. This must cause a severe loss in the population of fighters. When, following the collapse of the Paki state. The society inevitably degenerates into open warfare.

Will the pressures that resulted in the development of the compromisers culture seen in the GI plains be replicated. After say 20 to 50 years of vicious fighting amongst the faithful.

Or are there any factors unique to the Islamic culture that the compromisers’ will not become dominant.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby vera_k » 05 Sep 2010 11:13

^^^

Fighters die out only in societies where the rule of law is dominant.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby JE Menon » 05 Sep 2010 15:25

>>This from the congress.

Indeed, and this is why I have often said there is no need to worry unduly about "surrendering Kashmir" and the like. And that's why the Paks dislike the congress, i mean the RAPE South Asian types - because the Kaangress wallahs can speak that lingo better, more energetically, and less hypocritically. This leaves the RAPE with much less room to manoeuvre than when dealing with the BJP whose so-called "Hindutva" approach they emphasise because they find it more convenient to deal with. This is due to the fact that they can juxtapose that with their own radicals - although the BJP's right wing are probably less absolute about things than even the "moderate" RAPEs. These "moderate" RAPEs are the case study for the word hypocrite.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby brihaspati » 05 Sep 2010 18:19

Pratyush ji,
the loss of idealists/radicals by attrition in early days of any struggle appears to be universal. So Pak society need not be an exception. Problem is that in Pak - the fight is not against an opposing ideology. It is at best an internal power struggle. Such power struggles usually do not always lead to compromisers.

They may actually lead to an "increasing hardcore" trend.

In both cases, perhaps the accurate term should be the growth of a wide base of "opportunists" among the compromisers.

In case the struggle is between two opposing ideologies, the radicals/idealists are removed in the early phase of the struggle. What remains are compromisers and opportunists from both the winning and defeated side who will then crowd the new regime at the second-tier level. [Not all compromisers are opportunists]

In case the struggle is internal power struggle within the same ideology, the more radical is more likely to emerge the winner. Opportunists from both winning and defeated sections then converge to jockey for position.

In both cases, the opportunists are more dangerous than idealists because they want to prove their loyalty to the winners, and can overdo things.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby Prem » 05 Sep 2010 23:15

Rajesh Ji,

Add 20-250k Afghan Army putting preassure on Poakjoabs along with above scenario posted by you and they got to put price stickers on their forehead faster than they can say AOA. Its automatic collapse or whosale/ thoak bazari once they become 50B a year problem for 3.5 boyfriends.
Last edited by Prem on 06 Sep 2010 08:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby enqyoob » 06 Sep 2010 01:01

All that is needed is for the usual RAA agints to approach the Jarnails and the Mullahs and offer them a few rupees to start blowing up their own palaces.

"IeD at ISI HQ, 3rd floor, east wing, at 10AM Sep. 6: odds are 40:1. Taking bets now". Tons of money 2 b made.

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Postby RajeshA » 06 Sep 2010 06:40

Advantages of Indo-Afghan Partnership

Prem wrote:Rajesh Ji,

Add 20-250k Afghan Army putting preassure on Poakjoabs along with above scenario posted by you and they got to put price stickers on their forehead fatser than tey can sya AOA. Its automatic collapse or whosale/ thoak bazari once they become 50B a year prpblem for 3.5 boyfriends.


Prem ji,

consider a scenario. Every year India gives Afghanistan 1 billion USD. Afghanistan uses 500 million USD for its development, and the other 500 million USD for strategic cooperation with India.

With the 500 million USD, the Afghans, perhaps the Durrani Pushtuns or other friends of India there, distribute that sum amongst Pushtun warlords and Taliban who are willing to do some work for them. These warlords and Taliban then pay the amount to Jihadis in Pakistan, and these Jihadis go and cause mayhem in Pakistan on an unprecedented scale.

This is proxy war, this is asymmetric war. This is the war that Pakistanis have been carrying out in India. For this proxy war they have used some Kashmiris and some SDRE Muslims.

Now a proxy war India could carry out in Pakistan would have Pushtun foot-soldiers, more blood-thirsty and more ruthless than 10 deranged SDRE Muslims. If we invest 100 times more money than what Pakistan has ever invested, on a population one sixth of India, that means we get 6000 fold more mayhem in Pakistan, than anything that ever visited India.

If we consider that the desperation of the people in Pakistan due to inflation etc. would be much more than in India, and the Jihadi would be willing to work for half the cost, than in India, especially as the supply of Jihadis in Pakistan is also much greater and due to laws of supply and demand, then the mayhem in Pakistan could be around 12000 times that reached in India.

Afghan with their Army of Mayhem and India with its Conventional Army can squeeze the Pakjabis that they start wondering why Allah is using Pakis like a punching bag.

For all of this, we don't have to wait till 2030 to get a strategy for bringing down Pakistan going. We have the money. We have the contacts in Afghanistan. This is something we can do today, and bring Pakistan to its knees.

If the money is too little, then we just raise it to 2 billion USD a year.


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