India - Afghanistan Policy

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Vivek Raghuvanshi
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India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby Vivek Raghuvanshi » 03 Aug 2010 16:28

I think it is high time that the Indian Government thinks about a serious and committed India - Afghanistan policy.

No IB4TL please.

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby Vivek Raghuvanshi » 03 Aug 2010 16:34

http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/kayan ... nvoy-41601

Kayani wants India out of Afghanistan: Ex-Canadian envoy

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby Lalmohan » 03 Aug 2010 17:10

Hypothesis: a partitioned pakistan with the re-unification of historic pashtun tribal lands is the right answer for India, for Afghanistan and will lead to the long term stability of Pakistan

discuss...

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby RajeshA » 03 Aug 2010 17:46

Lalmohan ji,

I was just writing something on those lines. :) Will post later!

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby Klaus » 03 Aug 2010 19:34

Is the long term stability of TSP, even after erasure of Durand line and formation of Pashtunistan, in India's interest? Shouldnt Pashtunistan be the inspiration for independent Balochistan and Sindh nations?

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby Kamboja » 03 Aug 2010 19:49

Lalmohan wrote:Hypothesis: a partitioned pakistan with the re-unification of historic pashtun tribal lands is the right answer for India, for Afghanistan and will lead to the long term stability of Pakistan

discuss...


Hinges on attitude of emergent Pashtunistan to:
- Pakjabistan
- India
- Balochistan (also independent?)
- Northern Afghanistan

If an independent Balochistan and Pashtunistan means (relatively) friendly regimes in both countries, it could mean Indian access to gas and oil in C. Asia, not to mention Indian manufacturing getting a foothold in the latter countries. This could be huge.

Hypothesis: Pashtunistan more likely than not to view India favorably, as a counterweight to balance power of Pakjab. Far enemy of near enemy becomes my friend, etc. etc.

Potential complication: what will be relationship between Pashtunistan and N. Afghanistan? If latter two are embroiled in war, Pashtunistan could come to depend on Pakjab for support, thereby becoming a proxy of the latter. In that situation Pakjabistan might actually achieve the aim of incorporating part of Afghanistan into an expanded Paki state by absorbing Pashtunistan...

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby Vivek Raghuvanshi » 04 Aug 2010 08:54

What stops the Indian government from deploying a Indian Army Division in Afghanistan to assist the stabilization process or will we wait for Taliban to stabilize Afghanistan?

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby shiv » 04 Aug 2010 09:03

Vivek Raghuvanshi wrote:What stops the Indian government from deploying a Indian Army Division in Afghanistan to assist the stabilization process or will we wait for Taliban to stabilize Afghanistan?


Logistics.

Who will keep the men supplied and via what route? Who will give them air cover if needed?

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby shiv » 04 Aug 2010 09:07

The only way to stabilize Afghanistan is to split away Pashtunistan and leave it to the Pahstun Taliban, while Northern Afghanistan gets support from Russia, Iran and indirectly, India.

I think a great idea would be to split Afghanistan into a Pahstunistan that ends at the Durand line. It will then be Pakistan's responisbility to maintain its border at the Durand line and respect the sanctity of the new country of Pahstunistan. North of Pashtunistan will be Afghanistan.

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby shiv » 04 Aug 2010 09:12

Purple for Pastunistan?
Image

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby Sanjay M » 04 Aug 2010 09:15

shiv wrote:The only way to stabilize Afghanistan is to split away Pashtunistan and leave it to the Pahstun Taliban, while Northern Afghanistan gets support from Russia, Iran and indirectly, India.

I think a great idea would be to split Afghanistan into a Pahstunistan that ends at the Durand line. It will then be Pakistan's responisbility to maintain its border at the Durand line and respect the sanctity of the new country of Pahstunistan. North of Pashtunistan will be Afghanistan.



shiv, that's the current situation right now.

Pashtun-dominated Southern Afghanistan is effectively beyond Kabul's control.

ISI is then able to keep Southern Afghanistan embroiled in war against Kabul and coalition forces.

The best situation is for coalition forces to withdraw to the north, effectively making Northern Afghanistan independent and separate from Southern Afghanistan. Then Pashtuns on both sides of the Durand Line can naturally reunify.

They can then act as conduits to help Baloch get free. We can worry about Sindh after.

Btw, your map looks Pakistani-drawn, and overstates the Pashtun presence.

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby shiv » 04 Aug 2010 09:20

Sanjay M wrote:Then Pashtuns on both sides of the Durand Line can naturally reunify.


That is the idea.

Of course one can expect the Pakistan army to be quick off the mark to occupy Southern Afganistan and make it their own. This is where the US's actions will be critical.

If the US keeps on buttkissing the Paki army and funding and arming them - Pashtuns will end up in a bloody conflict with Pakistan that neither side will win - but Pashtuns will suffer at the hands of a Paki army funded and armed by the US.

If you have another map please post the link - I will edit my post

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby Sanjay M » 04 Aug 2010 09:24

from this site:

http://outofcentralasianow.wordpress.co ... htunistan/

The splitting up of land masses and calling the areas within artifical lines “Countries” has led to much damage in Central Asia and many other places. Let’s look at Pashtunistan, an area of land that is made up primarily of people of Pastun descent. It happens to not be a country at all. It was divided by an artificial line, the Durand Line in 1893. Pashtunistan is now the area that is under the most fighting in Afghanistan and Pakistan as Pastunistan covers most of what is now called Afghanistan, and a majority of the lands now called Pakistan, which was known as British India before Pakistan was cut out of India. Here’s Pashtunistan:


Image

And of course, the new highlighted area “Balochistan”, an area of land that is now all within Pakistan, and was cut into Pakistan when India and Pakistan border was laid out. The Baloch’s are a proud and ancient tribe of people, see our story on Balochistan


Image
Last edited by Sanjay M on 04 Aug 2010 09:26, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby shiv » 04 Aug 2010 09:26

^^
Looks good to me..

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby Sanjay M » 04 Aug 2010 09:27

Well, it's hard to say where Pashtunistan ends and Balochistan begins. Pakjabis would play hell with that.

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby shiv » 04 Aug 2010 09:30

Sanjay M wrote:Well, it's hard to say where Pashtunistan ends and Balochistan begins. Pakjabis would play hell with that.


The Americans are arming and funding the the Pakjabis (Pakistani Punjabi dominated army) to take on India, the Pashtuns and the Balochis. How clever is that?

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby Karan Dixit » 04 Aug 2010 09:49

From US' perspective, as long as Pakjaab survives all is well. After all, US needs a country where they can posit billion dollar a year. :)

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby SSridhar » 04 Aug 2010 09:56

Well, almost 25% of PA is Pashtun. Something must be done with that number.

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby RajeshA » 04 Aug 2010 10:46

Some more maps from the Wikimedia.

Ethnolinguistic groups of Afghanistan

1) 1972
[img=762×599]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/25/Afghanistan_Ethnolinguistic_Groups_1972.jpg[/img]

2) 1997
[img=602×599]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/28/Afghanistan_Ethnolinguistic_Groups_1997.jpg[/img]

3) 2001-2009
[img=655×600]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/US_Army_ethnolinguistic_map_of_Afghanistan_--_circa_2001-09.jpg[/img]

Ethnolinguistic groups of Pakistan

1) 1973
[img=632×600]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/42/Pakistan_ethnic_1973.jpg[/img]

2) Biggest Group by Region
[img=637×600]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/0c/Biggest_Group_by_Region.jpg[/img]

Isn't [ img ] size available on BRF???

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby shiv » 04 Aug 2010 11:12

SSridhar wrote:Well, almost 25% of PA is Pashtun. Something must be done with that number.


:D In fact that is why the Pakbarian army is mostly sitting it out on the Eastern front waiting for the Kufr to attack.

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby Klaus » 04 Aug 2010 11:22

Sanjay M wrote:Well, it's hard to say where Pashtunistan ends and Balochistan begins. Pakjabis would play hell with that.


India would'nt want Pashtuns and Balochis fighting each other over disputed territory after the formation of Pashtunistan, or would it?

Balochis would definitely rope in Iran, Balochi land which falls within Iranian administration would come under the hammer automatically. I guess that leaves Sindh to revolt squarely against Pakjabi rule and declare independence.

Pakjabis then come under tremendous pressure on all sides, the only escape route for remnants of the TSPA being the thin finger of land which takes them through Northern Areas into Xinjiang.

ADDED LATER: India would be chankian to capture the Northern Areas of Kashmir as soon as Pashtunistan declares independence. If Sanjay M's map is anything to go by, such a ploy would deny the Pakjabis access to Northern Afghanistan and Cheena, denying them an escape route.

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby Carl_T » 04 Aug 2010 12:31

Sanjay M - I'm afraid you've given Pashtunistan Herat district. That should go to the Tajiks!

The lands west of the Hindu Kush, places like Herat, (except Kandahar but maybe we can include it too) are Tajik dominated and have been historically been under Persian influence. That should be consolidated into a bloc under Indo-Iranian suzerainty. The plains south east of the HK are historically under Indian influence and a good place to delineate Pashtunistan. [/daydreaming]

I think India's first priority should be to build and increase rapport with the Tajiks and invest in the area commercially - with added infrastructure, and then move eastwards. Iran's assistance here is crucial.

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby Victor » 04 Aug 2010 12:55

Key for us would be the retaking of POK without which there is no access to CAR, even with an independent Northern Afghanistan and neutral Pakhtunkhwa.

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby Vivek Raghuvanshi » 04 Aug 2010 14:53

Why is the Indian government behaving like fence sitters?

We need to seriously get involved in Afghanistan by sending in at least a combat division to neutralize Taliban

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby Pratyush » 04 Aug 2010 15:44

Vivek Raghuvanshi wrote:Why is the Indian government behaving like fence sitters?

We need to seriously get involved in Afghanistan by sending in at least a combat division to neutralize Taliban


May be because, "Sometimes not acting is the best course of action". Or "Never interrupt your enemy especially when he is making a mistake"

Let me try and explain.

The TSPA thinks that they can control the Taliban. Perhaps they can, but the nationalistic faction of the Taliban cannot be controlled by any one. They will want to eliminate the external influence over AFG. The international jihadies types may be controlled by TSP but can they be stopped from conducting Jihad against the Khans, especially after having defeated the Khan. Moreover sending division of Indian troops in AFG. How will they be supported inside Afghanistan.

Secondly, the TSPA thinks AFG as their strategic depth. Common think about it. Just what is strategic depth. How will it apply in context where TSPA in in control of AFG. The strategic depth will also have to be protected. That means accommodating the interests of the neighbors of AFG, I.e Iran and the CARs. Will they just agree to lay down and let TSPA do as they please in AFG. If not then what does TSP has that will allow it to control AFG and keep it over a period of time.

Lets say, just as the USSR met its end in AFG, just as the Khans are about to meet their end in AFG. TSPA will also meet its end in AFG. I feel that we should in fact encourage the TSPA take over of AFG in order to expedite the demise of TSPA.

So sit back and enjoy the show.


JMT.

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Re: India - Afghanistan Policy

Postby RajeshA » 04 Aug 2010 16:11

Once America & NATO is driven out of Pushtunistan (Southern Afghanistan) the only occupying power in Pushtunistan remaining would be Pakistan.

As such the imperialist mada-phakar Pakistan would be next! :twisted:

AoA


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