Managing Chinese Threat

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eklavya
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 21 Apr 2013 17:19

shyamd wrote:Was the last major Chinese incursion in 2003 during ABVs trip to PRC? This is when 10 member IB/SSB team were disarmed and interrogated and eventually released 14km inside our territory?


Here is a story dated 10 Jan 2011 about Chinese intrusions in the Demchok area of Ladakh. Sad state of affairs.


India will take revenge for China incursion in Ladakh in summer: Farooq Abdullah

Former Jammu & Kashmir chief minister Farooq Abdullah has threatened China of revenge in Leh during summer amid reports of "incursions" into Indian territory in J&K's Ladakh region. Abdullah said China had "betrayed the concept of friendship".

Farooq Abdullah told reporters in Jammu on Sunday that India will show its strength during summer as there is extreme cold this time in Leh.

"China has betrayed the concept of friendship despite the fact that the Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao had promised friendship during his visit to India," Abdullah said on the sidelines of a function in Jammu on Sunday night.

"Those hopes have been belied by the incursion of Chinese troops into the border area of Leh," the minister said, replying to a question on reports of incursion by Chinese troops and halting of work at Demchok, close to the Line of Actual Control (LAC), in October last year.

Farooq suggested that India should not demilitarize its borders touching China and said that prime ministerial level talks between the two countries late year has not yielded results, even though talks between prime minister of China Wen Jiabeo and PM Manmohan Singh were held in congenial atmosphere.

"We already had a bitter experience with our neighbouring country China and I think India should not lower its guard from the borders touching China and simultaneously vigil should also be intensified," said Farooq.

The former CM said the incursion issue is being discussed by the Indian defence minister and external affairs minister. Farooq also said that India must attach full importance to security considerations along its borders with the neighbouring country.

A newspaper, Greater Kashmir, published simultaneously from Jammu and Srinagar, has published an interview of Chering Dorjee, former chief executive councillor of Leh Autonomous Hill Development Council, quoting him as saying that Demchok villagers were scared and had fled their homes.

"Currently, many villages in Demchok are empty as there is no security provided to the residents to save them from the haunting shadow of the Dragon," Dorjee said. "Recently, I along with some administrative officials went to Demchok. But the entire community has left from some villages there."

He said Demchok residents are now living in Koyul area of Ladakh.

"During my interaction with residents there, I was told that the Chinese army harasses them regularly and nobody is providing them security," the newspaper quoted Dorjee as saying.

"The worried residents are feeling insecure. They said nobody is securing them from Chinese soldiers and that is why they have fled from the villages."

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 21 Apr 2013 17:28

MEA and IA also downlayed the Demchok intrusion:, saying the Chinese have a different "perception" of where the LAC is, so its not really something to be concerned about; by this logic if the Chinese draw the LAC west of New Delhi, we should also not worry. Wonder if the MEA and the IA can clarify exactly which border they are trying to defend.

http://www.timesnow.tv/MEA-denies-China ... 362368.cms

http://www.timesnow.tv/China-border-inc ... 362329.cms

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby brihaspati » 21 Apr 2013 18:19

I think we should give the benefit of doubt to the GOI/MEA/IA over this.

We have responded with a time-tested method of "leaking" information to buildup international pressure on China. This leaking method has helped us in the past to roll back China from whatever it occupied.

GOI also knows China so deeply and so well that it also knows that the CPC head honchos are out of touch with the generals even if they share platforms and bodies in common with the generals, and that the command structure is highly integrated with the political side. So leaking is the onlee effective way of letting the political leadership know what their generals are doing. Pretty inspiring and deep understanding of the Chinese state modeled on the early Indian Congress fear of the military overthrowing the hard earned gaddi of the civilian politician.

The other benefit of leaking has also been spectacularly revealed here. I am awestruck. The leaking method lets the Chinese leadership know that "India has to respond". It is a method to put "pressure [on] china's leadership" telling them "India has to respond". This means the leak is an appeal to the Chinese leadership not to force GOI to "respond". "No one wants to escalate into a war" especially if this "no one" does not see any benefit in war. In sociology it is called "sympathetic magic". People hope that certain thinsg or people will behave in certain ways by imagining and fantasizing very hard that those things happen or those people behave in desired ways.

Thus leaking is a method of conveying to the Chinese leadership the India does not want war and sees no benefit from it. The "sympathetic magic" aspect is the use of deliberate collectivization - seen also in the afternath of 62 or 47 - when it is a debacle and time to apportion guilt or blame, it becomes "we" and " no one".
So here "no one" is the hope by extension that - or appeal to the Chinese - that they agree to become part of this "no one".

It is a wonderful strategy if we want to say to China that we are unprepared and unwilling to fight hard to retain our territory, that we will avoid war at any and all costs, and which automatically allows the Chinese leadership - who combine military aggression with politics in their tactical approaches - always - always without any exception whatsoever - to raise the stakes further in the psychological battel that goes on before actual territorial absorption. If this goes out in the form of "pressurizing the Chinese top" as otherwise GOI will be under domestic pressure to retaliate - then it is already conceding a psychological submission to China that the Chinese know very well to exploit.

The deep insight into Chinese minds shown by the apparent explanation for the "leak" - shows that whoever thought these explanations up - model the chinese CPC leaderships' mindset on the early post-independence Indian Congress leadership mindset. They think that like themselves, the Chinese leadership want to avoid war at all costs, and they do not want territorial expansion at any and all costs.

Of course it will be unfair not to highlight the fact that since such incidents also happened under non-Congress watch - especially as that of Vajpayejee - such incidents should not be taken as alarming and should not be taken as a special embarrassment for current incumbents of GOI. Whatever happened or were allowed to happen under NDA is kosher under any other regime - especially if it appears to be going against perceived national interests.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 21 Apr 2013 18:51

The latest deep incursion and establishment of a post is part of a calculated escalation strategy on the part of the CPC and PLA. They have been testing Indian resolve for some time, and have found it to be lacking. See this story from October 2012:

Growing intrusion by the Chinese army on the Indian side of LAC has set alarm bells ringing. Can the Indian army maintain its restraint?

On October 3, a team of Indian Army personnel, engaged in the repair of a road in the Chumar sector in Ladakh, was questioned by a patrol party of China's People's Liberation Army.

The Indian armymen, under strict instructions not to exacerbate tension on the border, demonstrated restraint.

The face-off lasted about half-an-hour, during which the PLA troops painted Chinese letters on the marking stones in red and destroyed a map made by the Indian troops.

They also snapped the communication line of the Indian Army that was being used to contact the road repair party.

Mail Today has accessed a series of internal reports of the government sent to the Prime Minister and his team, who are part of the cabinet committee on security, which suggest heightened interference by China on this side of Line of Actual Control.

According to the reports, the instance of intrusion by the Chinese army has gone up from 180 in 2011 to over 400 till September this year.

The government's top national security apparatus have been told about at least half-a-dozen incidents on LAC in 2012, where the Chinese and Indian soldiers engaged in a face-off and then pulled away.

Interestingly, even though the two countries set up a mechanism this year to deal with the increasing incidents of intrusion on the boundary, sources said India's protests were met with a denial from the other country.

Even at the army flag meetings, the Chinese authorities dismissed India's concerns on growing intrusions.

South Block officials continue to maintain there is no cause for an alarm. 'We have a mechanism to prevent border incidents. China is already embroiled in a major dispute with Japan and is occupied with its internal political changes.

It will not risk a conflict with India,' said an official. However, the defence establishment is concerned that the constant provocation by the Chinese PLA may trigger the Indian armymen to engage in localised conflicts.

India needs to send a strong message through diplomatic channels that Beijing has to stop provoking India, for a small spark on the boundary could lead to disastrous consequences for both the countries.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 21 Apr 2013 19:03

See this story from Jan 2012. SS Menon's China policy is a complete failure.

Belligerent on the Border

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 21 Apr 2013 19:52

China has a heightening tension with Japan at this very point of time and yet it did not flinch away from initiating tension on the Indian border. This coming a couple of weeks after the declaration of neo Panch Sheel, two meetings between Xi and MMS, proposed visit of Li announced with much fanfare, a proposed visit of MMS to PRC soon thereafter, a meeting between Binguo and SS Menon in December, resumption of army exercise, talks on maritime security etc. conveys a message. It shows that PRC may go ahead with CBMs but it will equally determinedly follow its ground course of action without let up. We should not be lulled into complacency with PRC at any point of time. Developing good relationship with PRC and protecting our territory are two different and independent things, not to be mixed up. A good relationship with PRC is not going to automatically translate into a facilitation for border resolution. PRC believes that after Russia, it is India that holds the largest amount of its territory. If China incurs into Daulat Beg Oldie, we should do so at a point where we have the advantage. We may not act proactively, but if we do not even react, we will be constant losers. The Chinese strategy of constantly and incrementally occupying another country's land must be understood.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 22 Apr 2013 07:41

India-China Working the Phones to Guard Against Escalation - Sandeep Dikshit, The Hindu
India has been especially careful about not fanning the news about the incursion in view of an upcoming high level visit and observations made by new Chinese President Xi Jinping to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the border issue during their maiden meeting in Durban last month.

In particular, India is mindful of the gesture by new Chinese Premier Li Keqiang who conveyed his intention to start a series of overseas visits with India and Mr. Xi telling Dr. Singh that ensuring the continuance of peace and tranquillity on the border would be one of three core pillars of China’s policy towards India. The other two are expanding economic engagements and stepping up convergence on global governance and security-related issues.


Indian politicians and bureaucrats are too darn good at finding justifications for their timidity. How come that China is not mindful of the 'upcoming high level visit and observations by Xi' ? Why should India alone be mindful of such things every time whether it is Maldives or PRC ? That Indian leaders are too easily swayed by meaningless gestures in which they tend to invest enormous importance is borne out by the bolded part above.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 22 Apr 2013 14:21

India wary of Chinese bustle on border - Santwana Bhattacharya, New Indian Express
A spurt in activities in Buddhist monasteries and caves strung along India’s border with Nepal and Bhutan has of late aroused suspicion and prompted a greater vigil.

Such has been the buzz around these monasteries in recent times that a new powder keg of espionage could be simmering in the corridor. Understandably, the suspected Chinese activity in these borderlands – camouflaged in spirituality, Mandarin studies, free FM radio sets and food-for-work aid – is not exactly inspiring confidence in New Delhi.

So, just as the Chinese officials here are working to ensure that new Chinese President Li Keqiang’s visit next month will take Sino-Indian ties to the next level, India’s internal security bosses have ordered an audit on the border monasteries, aiming to monitor the toing and froing and who is funding it.

The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) border security management wing has shot off “confidential” notes to its departments in West Bengal, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh to keep it in the loop on the intelligence gathered with the assistance of the Sashastra Seema Bal and BSF. The state governments too have been asked to give reports.

In the last three years, numerous Buddhist cave monasteries have sprung up, reinforcing India’s fears of Chinese espionage. Especially at a time when Chinese spy agencies seem to have focused on the sector after a period of lull.

Sources say Nepal has flatly refused to monitor these “suspicious” activities. In January, a team of officials sent to Kathmandu to seek help in restraining China’s food-for-work aid in the border areas was actuallty snubbed. Often, high-level intervention from New Delhi has turned counter-productive for the unstable political dispensation in Kathmandu.

One spur for the audit, sources say, was an intelligence input on the sudden influx of 400-500 Tibetan refugees from Nepal in the last two quarters. This happened despite a crackdown on Tibetan refugees entering Nepal through the remote Mustang sector, north-west of Kathmandu.

Since the border monasteries work as stopover points for all Tibetan refugees coming into India, the detection of dubious elements among them is near-impossible. Intelligence reports hint at low-ranking Chinese army personnel and pro-China monks mingling with the refugees.

In 2012, the Uttar Pradesh SSB chief had alerted the Centre about Chinese-funded Mandarin learning centres in Nepal’s Terai districts bordering UP–Kailali, Bardiya, Banke, Dang and Surkhet. Security fears have risen about the uptick in the Chinese presence in Nepal’s easternmost Mechi zone too, where the districts of Jhapa, Ilam and Panchthar flank Bihar, north Bengal’s Siliguri and Sikkim. Around 2002, senior lamas had sought New Delhi’s support to introduce Mandarin in monastery-run schools. India, hoping for a beneficial spin-off, was well disposed towards the idea.

At least 17 monasteries on the Indo-Bhutan border offer Mandarin as a course. “Indian agencies don’t extend any financial help to these schools. There are credible inputs that the money for salary, books and infrastructure comes from China,” said an MHA source.

A recent intelligence report suggests these easily available camouflages are being used by both Chinese and Pakistani espionage networks to set up shops in this region, which hosts the 33 Corps headquarters at Sukna in north Bengal and has potential supply routes for Indian Maoists. Bhutan, with its 699 km border with India, has a proximal presence in all these areas.

India sees Chinese FM radio stations airing from across the border as potential carriers of propaganda. The MHA note mentions the distribution of free radio sets among villagers on the Indian side. “From spirituality to entertainment, everything is being scanned under orders from New Delhi,” a top MHA official posted in West Bengal quipped

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 23 Apr 2013 02:56

India moves in more troops, stand-off with china escalates

The Indian army has moved an infantry regiment specialising in mountain warfare to Ladakh’s Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) sector where the Chinese army has intruded into Indian territory and set up a tent post. The ITBP has also pitched a tent post just across from the one erected by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), after it intruded 10km inside Indian territory on April 15.

The Indian government is playing down the intrusion with external affairs minister Salman Khurshid saying flag meetings were being held, but sources in the ministry of defence revealed that the situation was tense.

The two sides are caught in a bitter face-off with the Chinese refusing to retreat, claiming the territory to be theirs. In a deep incursion, a platoon strength of the Chinese army, comprising 50 men have entrenched themselves in eastern Ladakh at a height of nearly 17,000 feet.

In the past too, the PLA has intruded into Indian territory across the line of actual control (LAC), not very well demarcated at many places.

In 2011, members of the PLA landed in Ladakh in a helicopter and broke a few bunkers before retreating but this is the first time the stand-off has continued for a week.

A senior defence ministry official confirmed to HT that the intrusions have increased over the past few months because India has moved its tanks into high-altitude areas of Ladakh and even deployed heavy armoury. Recently, India also reactivated the advanced landing ground (ALG) for troop replenishment.

“Our troops are patrolling the Chinese side of the LAC and have not trespassed the line,” China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said in Beijing, adding, “China is willing to solve the boundary question through peaceful negotiations.”

In Delhi, an effort is being made to contain the confrontation especially since the new Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to visit India. For now, Delhi is working the phone lines – a line of communication agreed upon under the recently set up Mechanism on Coordination and Consultation on Border Affairs.


The NSA/MEA's policy of appeasement is a gross failure. The Chinese PM's visit should be put on hold ("the time is not ripe"), the Chinese post at DBO should be surrounded, the Chinese soldiers should be asked to surrender, failing which they should be killed.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby sanjaykumar » 23 Apr 2013 03:09

I am more sanguine, I am sure the Indians aren't ingenues at this game.

These are the same Indians who cut off the hands of Chinese soldiers at Samudorong Chu.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 23 Apr 2013 03:34

SSridhar wrote:Indian politicians and bureaucrats are too darn good at finding justifications for their timidity. How come that China is not mindful of the 'upcoming high level visit and observations by Xi' ? Why should India alone be mindful of such things every time whether it is Maldives or PRC ? That Indian leaders are too easily swayed by meaningless gestures in which they tend to invest enormous importance is borne out by the bolded part above.


SS, you are completely right. In 1996, the service chiefs told the Defence Minister that they would like to mark the 25th anniversary of the 1971 war with an event/parade in New Delhi. When the Foreign Secretary came to know of it, he argued against it, saying that we should be mindful of Pakistan's sensitivities. The Defence Minister backed the service chiefs, and the 25th anniversary was marked by a parade at the National Stadium in New Delhi.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 23 Apr 2013 03:43

sanjaykumar wrote:I am more sanguine, I am sure the Indians aren't ingenues at this game.

These are the same Indians who cut off the hands of Chinese soldiers at Samudorong Chu.


At Sumdrong Chu, Gen. Sundarji took his own initiative. Gen. Bikram Singh should command his troops to capture or kill the Chinese platoon occupying our land at DBO.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Prem » 23 Apr 2013 03:58

Just make sure this Chinese company do not get any supply of food or arms and the whole area is covered with Indian troops. Let Chinese fight it out or leave their weapons or surrender.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 23 Apr 2013 04:00

Face-off escalates, China envoy called in

The face-off between Indian and Chinese troops in Depsang valley in Ladakh has taken a serious turn. Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai summoned the Chinese ambassador to South Block last week to lodge an official protest against the forward deployment.

Sources said Mathai made it clear to Ambassador Wei Wei that such posturing was unhelpful in building the right atmosphere before Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's visit, likely on May 20. Li is slated to go to Pakistan from India.

Wei was told that India wanted the issue to be resolved soon, which meant that the Chinese troops must pull back from their current camping position.

However, in today's routine media interaction, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson asserted that China's forces had not crossed the Line of Actual Control. "China's frontier troops are seriously abiding by the agreement between both countries as well as the Line of Actual Control. Our troops are patrolling the Chinese side of the LAC and have never trespassed that line," the spokesperson said.

This, sources said, echoed the line the Chinese took at the April 18 flag meeting at the local military commanders' level. India then activated the joint mechanism to deal with such issues on the boundary. However, the Chinese counterpart of the MEA joint secretary leading this mechanism is learnt to have conveyed that Beijing was unaware of any such incident.

The Indian side suggested that Beijing should bring clarity to the issue at the earliest, and the matter be resolved through another flag meeting. Sources said India also asked for a second flag meeting, only to be told locally that it was not possible because the local Chinese commander had gone to his headquarters for consultation. New Delhi was on Monday hoping that the commander would return with instructions to de-escalate the situation.

Given the contesting perceptions of where the LAC is in these areas, it is common for both sides to send patrols close to their respective claim lines. The patrols roam the area and return; this is the first time in several years that a patrol party of about 30 persons has pitched tents in the disputed area.

The Indian side has calculated that the patrol is 10 km inside India's claim line. Sources said that even going by the Indian perception of what is China's claim line, the platoon is camped about 2 km inside Indian territory. Indian troops too have moved closer, and are currently deployed directly across the Chinese.

While the diplomatic effort continues, sources said internal inquiries are also under way to ascertain if the Chinese deployment was a misunderstood reaction to any action on the Indian side — even though the Chinese have made no such claim.

A face-off of this kind last occurred in 1986 in the Sumdorong Chu Valley in the Eastern Sector, when about 40 Chinese troops intruded into the Indian side, provoking a strong diplomatic protest from New Delhi. At that time too, Beijing claimed that its troops were patrolling in Chinese territory and sent in reinforcements, taking their number up to about 200.

India responded with a major counter deployment effort that saw Indian troops occupying key hill features surrounding the Valley. This was done alongside a diplomatic effort, which eventually led to a foreign minister's visit to China, and the eventual withdrawal of troops.

It was after this incident that work began on bolstering confidence building measures along the boundary, which were finally cemented through a bilateral agreement during the 1988 visit of former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi to China.

The Indian side is hopeful that this incident will not prove to be that dramatic, even though the Chinese platoon has now been positioned in the area for a week.


Sounds like IA/MEA strategy is to hope the Chinese withdraw ... what a joke.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby svinayak » 23 Apr 2013 04:26

SSridhar wrote:China has a heightening tension with Japan at this very point of time and yet it did not flinch away from initiating tension on the Indian border. This coming a couple of weeks after the declaration of neo Panch Sheel, two meetings between Xi and MMS, proposed visit of Li announced with much fanfare, a proposed visit of MMS to PRC soon thereafter, a meeting between Binguo and SS Menon in December, resumption of army exercise, talks on maritime security etc. conveys a message. It shows that PRC may go ahead with CBMs but it will equally determinedly follow its ground course of action without let up. We should not be lulled into complacency with PRC at any point of time. Developing good relationship with PRC and protecting our territory are two different and independent things, not to be mixed up. A good relationship with PRC is not going to automatically translate into a facilitation for border resolution. PRC believes that after Russia, it is India that holds the largest amount of its territory. If China incurs into Daulat Beg Oldie, we should do so at a point where we have the advantage. We may not act proactively, but if we do not even react, we will be constant losers. The Chinese strategy of constantly and incrementally occupying another country's land must be understood.


Chinese troops are in POK in the Kashmir region. They could be planning a ambush on the Indian position from many sides.
They will not escalate without a plan

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 23 Apr 2013 04:46

Look at this discussion. The retired Indian Army General and Colonel are both clearly saying that the Indian Army is not in a position to fight its way out of this situation. One has to wonder what planning has been done by the Indian Army to defend this area. Looks like none whatsoever.

http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/india- ... ive/272185

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 23 Apr 2013 05:09

Looks like the Chinese have been steadily over the years occupying the areas that were previously under Indian Army control, and the Indian Army has done nothing about it. See this:

http://www.assamtribune.com/scripts/det ... l0610/at07

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby svinayak » 23 Apr 2013 05:33

It has observed that China has devised zero-conflict strategy using nomads and grazers to invade pasture lands and grazing grounds inching quietly and providing a discreet protection to their nomads successfully unleashing a virtual creepy invasion.

The issue of Chinese incursions has rocked the Parliament on several occasions in the past, with the Centre blaming the unmarked boundary as the prime cause of dispute. Both China and India have nominated special representatives to resolve the boundary dispute.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 23 Apr 2013 06:11

eklavya wrote:Look at this discussion. The retired Indian Army General and Colonel are both clearly saying that the Indian Army is not in a position to fight its way out of this situation. One has to wonder what planning has been done by the Indian Army to defend this area. Looks like none whatsoever.

http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/india- ... ive/272185

It may be true that at the particular spot in Daulat beg Oldie, we are at a disadvantage which is perhaps what the above discussion probably refers to. However, this raises two other questions. We have a 3500 Km long border with China (including Tibet). Don't we even have a few places where we are at an advantage where we can intrude into the 'other' area citing the same reasons as the boundary being not 'sharply defined' and the (mis)perceptions regarding the LAC ? Also, is it not an appropriate time for us to ratchet up tension citing the 11 Km intrusion, as every neighbour of China is on edge regarding its aggressive posture all over the place ? Will that not also put PRC in a tight spot and help build the image of China being an inveterate aggressor creeping into neighbour's territories ? After all, what can China do if we also mobilize military and do a tit-for-tat ? We cannot forever be at the receiving end, can we ?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 23 Apr 2013 08:43

Troops Still Camped, but China Denies LAC Crossing - Ananth Krishnan & Sandeep Dikshit, The Hindu
China on Monday rejected reports in India that People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops had set up a tented post on Indian territory in Ladakh, but reliable sources in Delhi stressed that the place where Chinese troops had been camping for a week was Burthe.

Trying to play down the incident, the Chinese said its frontier patrols had “never trespassed” the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

In Delhi, the sources who identified the place as Burthe admitted that the Chinese were technically correct from their standpoint.

But from New Delhi’s perspective, the land where the PLA came across huts which Indian security forces abandoned and put up a tent was Indian.

“This is essentially a no man’s land,” explained the sources , {Is this not contradicting the above line ? Total confusion.} refuting alarmist suggestions that the Chinese troops had occupied part of the runway at the nearby Daulat Beg Oldi advanced landing ground.

“The Chinese patrols do wander here from time to time,” they added. “And this time, they found the abandoned huts to the right of Siachen Glacier and near the Partappur army base and decided to stay put.” {That's it. Why are you making a big deal. They keep coming here anyway}

External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid more or less upheld this view and said both sides were holding flag meetings to address the issue. “We are still in touch, and flag meetings are going on. There is more information to come. We will factor all that [in] and then take a final view,” he told journalists outside Parliament House.

Furthermore, Mr. Khurshid did not want the incident to snowball, saying both sides were against any departure from proportionality. “I do not think we should allow this to get beyond the immediate area and we should retain at that level and not allow it to escape that level,” he said. {So, he is saying that India will not take action at any other place along the LAC where we may have an advantage. My earlier question is now answered}

Different perceptions

Meanwhile, Defence Minister A.K. Antony asserted that India would protect its interests and try to resolve the situation.

Indian officials did acknowledge that there were different perceptions of the LAC in that sector and said both sides were in touch to resolve the issue peacefully and avoid escalation, using the mechanism on coordination and consultation on border affairs, which was put in place last year to deal with such incidents.

While both India and China have in the past been routinely patrolling up to where they see their territorial claims end, sources said it was not common for either side to put up a tented post in a region where claims overlapped.

‘Speculation’


However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying played down the incident, describing Indian media reports as “speculation.” “Our troops are patrolling on the Chinese side of the LAC and have never trespassed.{So, actually, he is claiming that the are currently occupied by the Chinese is their own territory. So, why is AK Antony saying that India will defend its territory ? There is no need to make this statement unlesss he felt threatened suddenly}

“Over the past few days, I have also been following Indian press coverage. Relevant Indian officials have also made statements on this issue. They have clarified the issue, and I refer you to their remarks,” she said, adding that India-China relations were in fine shape.

Last week’s reports about the strains along the disputed border come against the backdrop of warming ties, marked by a period of intense diplomatic engagements between both countries that is expected to culminate in the visit of the new Chinese Premier, Li Keqiang, to India next month. In recent weeks, both countries have had consultations on counterterrorism and the first-ever dialogue on Afghanistan aimed at boosting strategic trust.

The Chinese side has made it known that it is keen on Mr. Li’s expected visit to be the Premier’s first overseas trip after he took over in March — an indication of how the new leadership viewed relations with India as a priority.

Considering the opacity of the Chinese political and military set-up, officials and analysts say it remains unclear whether the People’s Liberation Army’s apparently more aggressive patrolling was a message from a military under new leadership; a reflection of a divergence of opinion among different sections in China on engaging with India; or merely an aberration driven by local factors.

Chinese analysts often make the point that insufficient communication between the two militaries remains a source of mistrust and a challenge for ties. Even as the two militaries grapple with strains along the border, the main channel of communication to defuse tensions is between India’s Ministry of External Affairs and the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs.

In the Chinese set-up, however, the PLA far outranks the Foreign Ministry, which has no say in how the military conducts its affairs and is widely seen by Chinese analysts as a department with far less influence.

Ms. Hua, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, stressed on Monday that “China values its relations with India” and “would like to develop sound, steady, long-term relations.” Both sides, she added, had agreed that “the boundary issue should not affect the larger interests of bilateral relations.”


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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby vic » 23 Apr 2013 09:55

Retaliate by suspending import of Chinese toys on some pretext.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 23 Apr 2013 10:48

No vic, we should also retaliate militarily.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 23 Apr 2013 10:52

Ladakh Incursion: Local India-China Military Commanders Hold Meet - ToI
Local military commanders of India and China are holding a flag meeting on Tuesday in a bid to resolve the situation arising out of the incursion by Chinese troops in Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) sector in Ladakh.

The meeting scheduled at 10:30am is being held in Daulat Beg Oldi sector, sources said.

India raised the issue with China last week immediately after the incident of the Chinese incursion came to light.

Apart from summoning the Chinese ambassador to South Block, the joint secretary in MEA, who is heading the India-China joint working mechanism to deal with issues on the boundary from the Indian side, spoke to his counterpart in Beijing last week, emphasising on the need to resolve the issue.

Foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai had summoned the Chinese ambassador Wei Wei to South Block and stressed the need for resolving the issue, the sources said.

The Chinese side said they will look into the issue and respond accordingly.

However, when contacted the Chinese embassy in New Delhi reiterated the comments made by their foreign ministry spokesperson in Beijing yesterday.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying had said yesterday that "China's frontier troops have been abiding by the agreement between the two countries and abiding by the LAC agreed by the two countries.

"Our frontier troops have been patrolling on the China's side of LAC", Hua had said, adding, "Our troops are patrolling on the Chinese side of the LAC and have never trespassed the line".

Chinese embassy officials maintained that China is ready to work with the Indian side to further the coordination and cooperation on the issues of boundary.


So, the Chinese are continuing to stick to their stand.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 23 Apr 2013 10:57

8 Chinese Ships in Japan Waters Near Disputed Isles: Japan Govt. - ToI
Eight Chinese government ships entered Japanese territorial waters near disputed islands on Tuesday, the most in a single day since Tokyo nationalised part of the archipelago, the Japanese government said.


Japan's coastguard confirmed the vessels had entered waters near the East China Sea island chain, while the government's top spokesman said the flotilla was a one-day record since Tokyo's nationalisation in September.

The maritime surveillance ships entered the 12-nautical-mile zone off the Senkaku chain of islands, which China calls the Diaoyu, around 8.00am (2300 GMT on Monday), the Japan Coast Guard said in a statement.

State-owned Chinese ships have frequently spent time around the five disputed islands, also claimed by Taiwan, in recent months.

"It is extremely deplorable and unacceptable that Chinese government ships are repeatedly entering Japanese territorial waters. We have made a firm protest against China both in Beijing and Tokyo," Japan's chief cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga told reporters.

Meanwhile, a group of Japanese nationalists said it had sent nine ships to the area around the islands.


This is the peacefully rising China.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 23 Apr 2013 12:18

SSridhar wrote:
eklavya wrote:Look at this discussion. The retired Indian Army General and Colonel are both clearly saying that the Indian Army is not in a position to fight its way out of this situation. One has to wonder what planning has been done by the Indian Army to defend this area. Looks like none whatsoever.

http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/india- ... ive/272185

It may be true that at the particular spot in Daulat beg Oldie, we are at a disadvantage which is perhaps what the above discussion probably refers to. However, this raises two other questions. We have a 3500 Km long border with China (including Tibet). Don't we even have a few places where we are at an advantage where we can intrude into the 'other' area citing the same reasons as the boundary being not 'sharply defined' and the (mis)perceptions regarding the LAC ? Also, is it not an appropriate time for us to ratchet up tension citing the 11 Km intrusion, as every neighbour of China is on edge regarding its aggressive posture all over the place ? Will that not also put PRC in a tight spot and help build the image of China being an inveterate aggressor creeping into neighbour's territories ? After all, what can China do if we also mobilize military and do a tit-for-tat ? We cannot forever be at the receiving end, can we ?


I agree with your recommendation. Lets do a tit-for-tat occupation elsewhere if DBO is indefensible. Does make me wonder though why IAF built an airfield there: did the Army not tell the IAF that the airfield cannot be defended?

Frankly, with full logistics and if required enemy interdiction support from the IAF, IA should be preparing to push back the occupation in DBO through military action.

Also, the road to DBO/Sub Sector North needs to be completed this summer itself on a war footing. It is hugely negligent and completely unacceptable for the Indian Army to talk about lack of infrastructure in 2013, a full 50+ years after the 1962 debacle. India has more than enough money to build roads. What we appear to lack is the planning and foresight, for which the Indian Army leadership has to take its fair share of blame.

But as you have shown above, Khurshid wants to just accept this kick in the teeth from the Chinese and does not want any retaliation elsewhere and the army does not want to fight in DBO. What a sad bunch of losers this government is.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby rohitvats » 23 Apr 2013 13:23

eklavya wrote:Look at this discussion. The retired Indian Army General and Colonel are both clearly saying that the Indian Army is not in a position to fight its way out of this situation. One has to wonder what planning has been done by the Indian Army to defend this area. Looks like none whatsoever.


You can do better than make such preposterous remarks.

And that too, once you have been given indication of the serious limitations in terms of geography, connectivity and accessibility to the area.

The officers are talking purely from military geography stand-point of view. No amount of jingoistic statements can wish that away. This is an inherently indefensible area. Of the entire border between Dhemchok in south-east Ladakh to DBO in North, why do you think the Chinese took the decision to play this game here?

As for what the army has done - please ask the MOD/GOI these question. Please ask them why is that it is ITBP which mans the border with Tibet along LAC or airstrip was build in DBO only some years back? Will the MOD/GOI allow Indian troops to go on war-footing and prepare for the worst? It is easy to ask for IA to shoot these PLA troops and be done with it...is India (read GOI) ready for the escalation that will follow? Can we retaliate in some other location along the LAC in Ladakh if we receive setback here?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby rohitvats » 23 Apr 2013 14:44

SShridhar - this entire report is bogus.

What is quite clear to me is that the report has been fed to the media to somehow show that there is no real case of concern. And it is business as usual.

Let me point out the facts reported incorrectly:

SSridhar wrote:
<SNIP>

Trying to play down the incident, the Chinese said its frontier patrols had “never trespassed” the Line of Actual Control (LAC).In Delhi, the sources who identified the place as Burthe admitted that the Chinese were technically correct from their standpoint.

We need to understand that with respect to Ladakh boundary with Tibet, there are two aspects. There is the Chinese claim line and then there is LAC. LAC is where the forces were when the 1962 ceasefire came into play. However, we also need to understand that PLA chose to advance only up to a position where the LAC stands today and stay put. They could have advanced more if they wanted to. But they did not. More often than not, Chinese positions post 1962 coincided with their claim lines.

Another important factor to understand is that unlike NE India and McMahon Line, PLA's requirement in this area was driven by the need to give strategic depth to their Xinjiang and Tibet Highway. It is for this reason that one of their prime objectives in 1962 war was to control all the west-east passes (Hot Springs incident happened because of control for Kongka La Pass). Their claim lines conveniently put all passes in within their claimed area.

Here is a link on the 1960 claim line of China (from a 2006 article in Frontline by AG Noorani):

Image

For DBO, PLA pushed to a particular point on the Aksai Chin plateau and then no further. This when, there was nothing stopping them from coming further in and occupy the DBO and KK Pass. The lone Indian infantry battalion had withdrawn after braving the PLA for couple of days. Why did the Chinese did not advance further if their claim line lay west and there was no opposition?


But from New Delhi’s perspective, the land where the PLA came across huts which Indian security forces abandoned and put up a tent was Indian.“This is essentially a no man’s land,” explained the sources refuting alarmist suggestions that the Chinese troops had occupied part of the runway at the nearby Daulat Beg Oldi advanced landing ground.

The starting point of this report says that the Chinese troops are at Burthe...my guess is that this refers to Burtse.
If this is indeed Burtse, then we have a very serious situation at our hand. Let me explain.

As I've said earlier, the land route to DBO is very torturous and for most part, it runs along the Shyok river. Now, land route followed is:

Shyok Village - >Kalkatra La - > Kataklik Lungpa - > Sultan Chushku - > Murgo - > Burtsa - > Qazi Langar - >Depsang Plateau - > DBO - > KK Pass.

West of Murgo is Chhongtash, which is an army camp. During summers, caravans coming from Baltistan came from Nubra to Saser La, across the Shyok and then Chhongtash - > Murgo and further to KK Pass.

Here is the trek route (from Harish Kapadia: http://www.alpinejournal.org.uk/Contents/Contents_2004_files/AJ%202004%20112-122%20Kapadia%20Shyok.pdf)

Image

The main landmarks marked on GE:

Image

From the above, what is evident is that by placing troops at Burtse, PLA IS BLOCKING THE LAND ACCESS ROUTE TO DBO.

As can be seen from the maps, the LAC is bloody close to the trail route and we have very little depth in the entire Shyok river Valley area - right up to where the trail opens up in Depsang Plains.


“The Chinese patrols do wander here from time to time,” they added. “And this time, they found the abandoned huts to the right of Siachen Glacier and near the Partappur army base and decided to stay put.”

The Siachen Glacier and Partappur are way towards west in the Nubra Valley. These two locations have nothing to do with LAC. Partappur is location of 102 Infantry Bde - which is responsible for Siachen and entire area from Turtok to DBO.

<SNIP>


If you ask me - if the PLA is sitting at Burtse, it represents a very significant escalation and indication by the PLA. This is not your regular run of the mill incursion. This is like cutting the NH-1A in Kargil.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Singha » 23 Apr 2013 15:05

there seems to be no line of major advance for the PLA to Burtse directly across the LAC. the only way is through over run of the DBO airbase and funneling down from the north which will mean atleast a border war kargil style.

so why dont GOI just crush that platoon with mortars or a air raid and dare the cheen to escalate, all in full media glare and with daily visits by journos to the actual site?

perhaps am barking up the wrong tree here, with MMS/madam and the rest busy with elections...

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Singha » 23 Apr 2013 15:08


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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 23 Apr 2013 15:44

rohitvats, I completely agree. It is right on the edge of Siachen and is quite dangerous too. The map is very good to understand the exact bearings though I know the KK Pass, DBO, old Silk route et al.

There are several points here. One is that this is not a local PLA commander acting by his whims and fancies. The earlier political leadership and the military leadership exhibited some divergences, but this is unlikely to be the case with the new leadership. The new President Xi not only grew his career with the military but he is currently holding a triad of powers, President, Military Chief and CPC Chief. The Neo Panchsheel and the BRICS homilies that he delivered to Man Mohan Singh were to lull him into complacency and if he woke up and showed any signs of reaction, then to lull hin into inaction by dangling a carrot of better India-China relationship. That would be an eternal hope and a plain mirage. Our leaders are still clinging on to that hope and therefore worried about doing something that the Chinese may not like.

Secondly, they have also taken advantage of the impending visit by Li Keqing and they know from past history that India would not do anything in haste when such an important visit is due. Of course, the Chinese do not follow such niceties themselves. In 1992 when President R.venkatraman visited PRC, it conducted a nuke test. Recently, in January 2011, China tested its stealth JF-20 fighter on the day Robert Gates, US Defense Secretary, landed in Beijing. So, the Chinese use these occasions to send clear and unambiguous messages. It is therefore important that India takes whatever military actions it has to take without bothering about the visit of Prime Minister Li.

The Chinese must be made to realize that 1962 has been left far behind by India and it is a different ball game altogether from now on. This is a good opportunity to demonstrate the new Indian approach to China.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby RajeshA » 23 Apr 2013 15:56

SSridhar wrote:The Chinese must be made to realize that 1962 has been left far behind by India and it is a different ball game altogether from now on. This is a good opportunity to demonstrate the new Indian approach to China.


The Army and Opposition may have to force the hand of UPA Govt.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Singha » 23 Apr 2013 15:56

we could return the favour by starting operations right when Li Keqing is meeting the PM, the look on his face after he takes the phone call in the car returning to consulate would be priceless.

that would be the right response for this.

remember the japanese ambassador and foreign minister were in talks with cordell hull the us secy of state when the zero and val planes were inbound to pearl harbour. doing it the japani way would again apply salt to the wound...

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby shyamd » 23 Apr 2013 16:13

SSji - I stand corrected. On the basis of info I received - Senior PLA Colnel at the first flag meet stated they were "awaiting instructions from HQ" (Suggests this event is planned). Then for 5 days there was no movement because this guy was in HQ. Today there was a flag meeting held again - no news on outcome.

In light of Rohitvats's post its clear what the PLA are doing.

This is heading for conflict. IA have moved Ladakh Scouts into the area.

Politicians of course are trying to avoid a conflict here - if there is no cooperation then there is conflict.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby member_19648 » 23 Apr 2013 16:27

Its only in Indian media that the stories of differing perceptions on boundary is published, the Chinese have no such qualms. That's why, they have unequivocally said that they have not transgressed and whatever they are doing is in their territory as they claim the whole area to be theirs. This coupled with the weak leadership who believe in the kind words by the Chinese leadership, and the armed forces are in deep dilemma.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 23 Apr 2013 18:17

India asks China to maintain status-quo in Ladakh - The Hindu
India on Tuesday asked China to revert to the status quo position in Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) sector in Ladakh where troops of both countries were in a face-to-face situation after Chinese forces intruded nearly 10 km inside Indian territory eight days ago.

“We have asked the Chinese side to maintain the status quo in this sector (of the western border),” official spokesperson in the Ministry of External Affairs Syed Akbaruddin said, adding, “by this I mean the status quo prior to this incident.”

He also added that “we see this as a face-to-face situation between border personnel of two sides due to differences on their alignment of Line of Actual Control".

The term “face-to-face” is not something that India has “conjured up”, it is something that is referred to in 2005 Protocol for implementation of CBMs in military field in the LAC in India-China border areas, he said.

While referring to the relevant provision in the protocol, he said, under it “if the border personnel of the two sides come in a face-to-face situation due to differences on the alignment of the line of actual control or any other reason, they shall exercise self-restraint and take all necessary steps to avoid an escalation of the situation.

“Both sides shall also enter into immediate consultations through diplomatic and/or other available channels to review the situation and prevent any escalation of tension.”

The Official Spokesperson’s remarks came even as the local military commanders of India and China held a flag meeting today in a bid to resolve the situation arising out of the incursion. The meeting was held in Daulat Beg Oldi sector.
{The FO spokesman's description, for the first time of face-to-face situation and asking China to maintain prior status-quo condition means that the flag meeting did not go well}

Speaking about the steps taken by the government since the incident on April 15, the spokesperson said, India raised the issue with China last week immediately after the Chinese incursion came to light.

Apart from Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai summoning the Chinese Ambassador to South Block, Gautam Bambawale, Joint Secretary in MEA, who is heading the India-China joint working mechanism to deal with issues on the boundary from the Indian side, spoke to his counterpart in Beijing last week, emphasising on the need to resolve the issue.

The Chinese side said they will look into the issue and respond accordingly.

However, when contacted the Chinese Embassy in New Delhi reiterated the comments made by their Foreign Ministry spokesperson in Beijing yesterday.

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying had said yesterday that “China’s frontier troops have been abiding by the agreement between the two countries and abiding by the LAC agreed by the two countries.

“Our frontier troops have been patrolling on the China’s side of LAC”, Mr Hua had said, adding, “Our troops are patrolling on the Chinese side of the LAC and have never trespassed the line”.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 23 Apr 2013 18:24

shyamd wrote:Politicians of course are trying to avoid a conflict here - if there is no cooperation then there is conflict.

Shyam, politicians 'from India' are trying to avoid conflict. I am not so sure about the Chinese side. There are four things, IMO, that are problematic for us. One is that we are unwilling to speak to China in the only language they understand. Two, the PLA has greater say in the Chinese hierarchy than their Foreign Ministry. Three, the Chinese Preisdent has his sympathetic ears for the PLA. Four, the Indian military is not consulted by the politicians in these situations until it becomes too hot to handle.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby member_19648 » 23 Apr 2013 18:34

SSridhar wrote:
shyamd wrote:Politicians of course are trying to avoid a conflict here - if there is no cooperation then there is conflict.

Shyam, politicians 'from India' are trying to avoid conflict. I am not so sure about the Chinese side. There are four things, IMO, that are problematic for us. One is that we are unwilling to speak to China in the only language they understand. Two, the PLA has greater say in the Chinese hierarchy than their Foreign Ministry. Three, the Chinese Preisdent has his sympathetic ears for the PLA. Four, the Indian military is not consulted by the politicians in these situations until it becomes too hot to handle.


But SS, what is most worrying is that, not even a single strong comment and specially condemnation of the incident has come from GOI personnel. They are sticking to the everything is normal line and that the Chinese are innocent because of differing LAC perception and nothing can derail the peace process. The more GOI says such things, the more they are playing into the hands of the Chinese and giving them reason to stay put.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Christopher Sidor » 23 Apr 2013 18:37

The time for talking is over. This is blatant encroachment on Indian territory. We need to throw these guys out. PRC and its armed thugs, PLA are trying salami tactics with India and create facts on the ground. The only question is will the UPA and what is referred to by the BJP as a nikama prime minister have guts to do what is right.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 23 Apr 2013 18:44

In fact, this Chinese intrusion well beyond DBO and almost to the nape of Siachen must open the eyes of those who were arguing for turning Siachen into a peace park and India withdrawing its soldiers. They are forgetting that TSPA and PLA are together in their nefarious activities.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby member_19648 » 23 Apr 2013 18:45

Christopher Sidor wrote:The time for talking is over. This is blatant encroachment on Indian territory. We need to throw these guys out. PRC and its armed thugs, PLA are trying salami tactics with India and create facts on the ground. The only question is will the UPA and what is referred to by the BJP as a nikama prime minister have guts to do what is right.


Very unlikely Chris, only a few days back, the President had made a speech how India is a very peace loving nation and will never give in to designs for conflict, etc. The External Affairs ministry is as usual busy commenting the same line "Nothing can derail the peace process, we are doing it for the nation", which has become the standard for the Pakis as well as the Chinese now. PMO is silent as usual. The Chinese surely have been studying the Indian line/reaction and this one would really leave a long impact.


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