Managing Chinese Threat

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sanjaykumar
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby sanjaykumar » 26 Apr 2013 08:17

Yes India Japan is a potential alliance but frankly neither India nor Japan have much to offer each other, India is not going to get embroiled in a fight with China for Japan's sake. India's cultural biases remain firmly occidental. Fundamentally Indians are mostly an occidental race, a point not lost on East Asians.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Prem » 26 Apr 2013 08:30

PratikDas wrote:Sanjaykumar ji, didn't you miss the upcoming meeting between India and Japan?
MMS is off to Japan in May. The Emperor of Japan will visit India in autumn this year.


It might had make them panic. They can sense the consequences and want to rub Indian nose in poublic .Chinnbassador practically said this on NDTV that they are competing with USA for Number One spot and India is not worthy of their kind attention.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby g.sarkar » 26 Apr 2013 08:53

I am not sure if one can fathom Chinese motives. Their leadership do not owe their existence to the will of the people. The Chinese attack on India occurred while a devastating man made famine was going on. But that did not deter China one bit. What we should be sure of is Indian motives. If India lets them stay and get away with the incursion, we can kiss Ladakh Tawang and Aurnachal Goodbye, tomorrow they will move another 10 km and say this is our perception of the border. The problem is not with Chinese motives, or the competence of Indian Soldiers. The problem is with Indian politicians, do they have the cojones? MMS has done an ostrich on us and the foreign minister is parroting the Chinese version of things. When I look at Indian newspapers all I see is IPL, Modi, Mamta and scams. US, Japan, Russia or anybody will not help us. India will have to help India. Last time at least we fought and lost. This time are we going loose without even fighting?
Gautam
PS Sorry for the negative thoughts but this is getting me depressed.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Pranav » 26 Apr 2013 08:59

It seems this is the location of the Chinese camp - 35° 7'33.81"N, 78° 4'24.20"E

Based on the following clues -

- about 30 km South of Daulat Beg Oldi (http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/lada ... 67494.html)
- near Burtse
- on a Nala (Raki Nala) flowing from the Chinese side to the Indian side.

Examining the terrain on Google Earth, no other location seems to match. This location is about 2 km upstream of the IA camp at Burste. The terrain is not very accessible from their side, except along the Nala.

IMHO, if IA puts some 50 soldiers a couple of km further upstream from their camp, to the North East, equipped with MMGs, ATGMs and MANPADs, they will be able to effectively block resupply by land, barring, of course, an air strike.

Image

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby habal » 26 Apr 2013 09:35

i have a feeling that this is not going to end well for India. Not due to anything military though. If the Chinese have allowed the upavasis to store their stash in macao banks, and huawei assists some minister in printing currency via Chinese central bank press. All rumors ofcourse, but consider for a moment if true, since anything can happen in this country. Then we have basically given the chinese some almighty leverage over upavasis. What is likely to happen is thus:

a. Parnaik about to resign, some compliant chap who has a large dossier with CBI is give responsibility. His job is to keep mum.
b. Chinese stay put or move slightly left or right on the same line and upavasis claim victory.
c. khurshd goes to china and asks them to stay put too since he could care less. Just asks them to come out publically and make some conciliatary noises. Win Win solution.
d. Chinese have huge dossier on upavasis, their macao a/c's and realize that they are not coming back thus want to encash here and now.
e. thank you upa.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby KLNMurthy » 26 Apr 2013 10:09

Pranav wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:
Pranav's post is valuable and should be archived under good posts. It is a great reference for the specious rationalizations that Indian ruling class routinely exhibits.


Hello, what are you disputing. Be specific.



I thought the speciousness would have been obvious...

1. When attacked, immediately jumping to talking about our sins which provoked the attack--in this case, support fot Tibetans and working with US .
One should listen to and understand the other side. The Chinese may have had their own perceptions of Nehru's policies of allowing the CIA to train Tibetans, for example.


2. Demanding that all hostility to the present aggressor be held in abeyance till we have reached some mythical state of uniform posture towards everyone who may also be arguably inimical, in this case western powers.

From Indian POV, the policies of the western power structure have arguably been more damaging. Are those advocating hostility willing to show at least as much hostility towards the west?


3. A touch of sanctimoniousness wrapped in a platitude--"strength and vigilance, with understanding..." as others have pointed out, there is a place for hostility in an earnest and vigorous defence of the motherland, it is not a given that being the nice guy is always a wonderful thing, but you are implying that it is. What if understanding tells us that a good sharp blow, delivered with hostility, is the right thing?

Not that I am advocating hostility towards anybody ... ultimately one has to do whatever it takes to advance national interest, including cooperating with the west where necessary. Strength and vigilance, with understanding, is the best approach.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Pranav » 26 Apr 2013 10:21

KLNMurthy wrote:

I thought the speciousness would have been obvious...

1. When attacked, immediately jumping to talking about our sins which provoked the attack--in this case, support fot Tibetans and working with US .

Understanding their perceptions does not necessarily mean admitting "sins", though the wisdom of Nehruvian collaboration with the CIA is indeed debatable.

2. Demanding that all hostility to the present aggressor be held in abeyance till we have reached some mythical state of uniform posture towards everyone who may also be arguably inimical, in this case western powers.

I do maintain that policies should be decided only after reaching a proper understanding of the various players, their actions, and their motivations.

3. A touch of sanctimoniousness wrapped in a platitude--"strength and vigilance, with understanding..." as others have pointed out, there is a place for hostility in an earnest and vigorous defence of the motherland, it is not a given that being the nice guy is always a wonderful thing, but you are implying that it is. What if understanding tells us that a good sharp blow, delivered with hostility, is the right thing?

No problem, if you have understood the global, historical perspective, and have fully analyzed consequences.

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.”

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 26 Apr 2013 10:52

China's Intrusion Well-planned, but Govt Playing it Down - Rajat Pandit, ToI
China's deep intrusion into eastern Ladakh region was a well-planned exercise to needle India, even though the government is now taking pains to stress it's "more of a tactical-level operation" rather than one with "any strategic intent".

More than 30 troops from the People's Liberation Army (PLA), who pitched tents around 18-km inside what India perceives to be its territory 10 days ago, came equipped with supplies for the long haul. They have also been detected to be using "one to three vehicles" between the face-off site and their tented camp around 500-metre towards the east.

The rival troops are actually positioned only 100 to 200 metre apart in the face-off site at Raki Nala in the Depsang Bulge area, with the 50-60 Indian troops from Ladakh Scouts and ITBP setting up their own camps towards the west.

With India stepping up both air and ground surveillance of the area, Army chief General Bikram Singh also briefed defence minister A K Antony on the situation on Thursday. "The PLA troops, who also have two sniffer dogs, have not exhibited any aggressive behaviour till now. We are keeping a close watch. If they increase their numbers, we will match them and examine other options," said a source.

The Army has already suggested "five to six options", including "a show of force" if the matter comes to a head, which can be implemented in a calibrated manner to "pressure" the PLA to leave the area. But the government is working for "a diplomatic, not military, solution as of now", he added.

It normally requires around 2-3 kg of supplies and rations, apart from 5-6 litres of water, to sustain a single soldier per day in the area, which is at an altitude of around 16,300 feet. "The Chinese have already been there for 10 days and we have not yet detected any replenishment convoy or helicopter sortie. So, they came well-prepared to set up the camp," said a source.

"The Chinese, equipped with assault rifles and other standard arms, are also using vehicles between the face-off site and their camp. The area is motorable. We will stay there till the Chinese are there," he added. {We seem to be going by the calculation that sooner or later, they would run out of rations. This may be a dangerous assumption. The amount of supplies that they have brought in to support 30 or 40 soldiers indicate they were airdropped. Where is the guarantee that the PLA would not attempt to airdrop more ? What is our option if we cite Chinese helos ? Are we prepared to shoot them down which will certainly escalate tension after we have all along claimed that we will negotiate ourselves out of this mess ?}

The entire 14 Corps (over 35,000 troops) deployed in Ladakh - with an infantry division, a mountain division and an artillery brigade — is, however, maintaining "a high state of operational readiness" to tackle any contingency. Long-range surveillance equipment, including UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) or spy drones, are also been used in order to detect if there is a Chinese build-up in the region.

Incidentally, in keeping with the government policy to treat the stand-off as "a localized affair", an Indian military delegation is currently in China to finalize the dates for the third edition of the "Hand-in-Hand" (HiH) counter-terrorism exercise.

The Indian and Chinese armies had undertaken the first two HiH exercises in Kunming (China) in 2007 and Belgaum in 2008. But after China denied a proper visa to the then Northern Army commander Lt-General B S Jaswal in July 2010 on the ground that he was commanding forces in the "disputed and sensitive" region of J&K, all bilateral military engagements were frozen.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby vic » 26 Apr 2013 11:33

Why are we so excited about a tiny Chinese Camp? when we have a foreign ruler, with foreign accounts, only interested in bribe generating foreign imported products, which come with donot use label. Congress spokesmen are correct when they say that there is differing opinion on sovergenity and India's sovergenity is violated everyday.

Further, what about strong response to soldier beheading incident with Pakistan? So, if Bakistan which is 1/10th the Size of India can needle us then China must be allowed the same pleasure.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby chetak » 26 Apr 2013 12:05

vic wrote:Why are we so excited about a tiny Chinese Camp? when we have a foreign ruler, with foreign accounts, only interested in bribe generating foreign imported products, which come with donot use label. Congress spokesmen are correct when they say that there is differing opinion on sovergenity and India's sovergenity is violated everyday.

Further, what about strong response to soldier beheading incident with Pakistan? So, if Bakistan which is 1/10th the Size of India can needle us then China must be allowed the same pleasure.


Not to mention the eyetalians who have been in dilli for years!

Atiti devo bhava. we should welcome all with mms and kusshit performing a secular aarathi probably with chinese made battery operated torches onlee

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby rohitvats » 26 Apr 2013 12:37

Pranav wrote:<SNIP>
Practically speaking, from their side they have a wide, mostly flat plain, with good roads, whereas from our side we have very mountainous terrain to cross and a toehold on the said plain on the other side of the mountains. It would probably be much easier for them it bring tanks to Daulat Beg Oldi than it would be for us. Not that these disadvantages cannot be handled with good planning and technology, but these statements smack of emotionalism.


Well, the author simply said 'North' and not DBO.

As for his analysis - he knows more about Orbat and capabilities of IA/PLA/PA than the combined knowledge on the topic on BRF. From what I have seen and read, save for senior IA officers, there are none who know the matter in such depth than him.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Virendra » 26 Apr 2013 12:58

Image

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby AjayKK » 26 Apr 2013 13:05

India is no pushover; we are not scared of China: Salman Khurshid

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/chin ... 67744.html

External affairs minister Salman Khurshid has asserted that India is not scared of China.

"India is no pushover. We are not scared of China," he told Headlines Today on board a special aircraft en route to Almaty, Kazakhstan.

The minister, who is going to Almaty to attend the ministerial conference on Afghanistan, said the two armies at the ground level are working to sort out the "difference of perception", but refused to give a timeline for a solution.

Beijing visit

On his plan to visit Beijing on May 9, he said: "This (the incursion dispute) is not an issue for which the foreign minister would go rushing to Beijing. We hope the matter will be resolved by then. Should it not be by then, it will be a part of the agenda :rotfl: ." The most Munh-tod jawab, one can imagine in a long time

Asked whether India's response to China's incursion was so far timid, the minister said: "The response should not be seen as timid or robust or whether it is proportional. This (incursion) is adverse to our interests. The fact that they happen to be where we don't want them to be is established. We don't wish them to be there."

Army's view

The army is understood to have recommended a more robust defensive posture along the Sino-Indian Line of Actual Control to the government.
Khurshid insisted that the army's view was being factored into the government's response. The minister categorically said the issue was being sorted out at the military level. "The military perception and point of view has been factored in. The opinion of the armed forces is very important. And we have largely left it to the army to handle it. "

The minister insisted that an isolated incident should not be allowed to affect the major investments both India and China have made in the process, for the costs are very high for both the Asian giants, both being nuclear powers.

Asked if China was behaving like a regional bully, Khurshid said: "This (current incursion into sub-sector north near Daulat Beg Oldi) incident should be seen as a local incident. Both the militaries are attempting to sort it out. Whatever one might say about the Chinese style and the Indian style (of diplomacy), I'd rather say we preserve the Indian style of drawing historical parallels."

Asked if the political leadership was not keen on adopting the army's suggestion on robust response, Khurshid said: "Ultimately the decision is taken by the political leadership and we are not out of sync with the armed forces. That's why we have left it to them to handle it, of course in the broad framework of mechanism established by the government.



Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/chin ... 67744.html


There is more at the article with a (incorrectly marked ? ) map.

Hopefully the "broad framework of mechanism established by the government", has more steps than banner drills.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby harbans » 26 Apr 2013 13:39

We have to change perception and start to be real and make a much needed claim to this area:


Image

What has the Han who has eaten fish off the South China coast got to do with Shiva meditating on Mount Kailash off the waters of Lake Mansarover. There is no holier spot for hundreds of millions of Shiv Bhakts than the above.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby member_19648 » 26 Apr 2013 14:14

What the politicians are banking on, as usual, is the short memory of Indians and that this news would be off the headlines and out of people's minds very soon, which is gradually happening.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby harbans » 26 Apr 2013 16:50

X Post:

Rajesh Ji, the KM region is one of the most pristine and beautiful regions in the world. It is the holiest of holy spots and for millenia it's association with the Shiv Dharmic has been established. This is the spot that Shiv Ji is supposed to be meditating. The Han Chinese has no root, no business to be here one bit. The deal we must make with HH The Dalai Lama is something like this. We endorse UN resolutions in Tibet. We endorse the Govt in Exile as the real Govt in Tibet. When Tibet is free we make the entire Kailash Mansarover region as a Shiv Dharmic Sthal with visa free entry for Tibetans and Indians alike. This are is the source of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmputra and all major river systems of SE Asia. There is no 'maturity' in our 'mature' talks with China at all. One has no locus standii being 5000 miles West of hinterland and negotiating with an India whose hinterland at best is a few ten kilometers from these areas.

This 2 decade old mechanism that bureacrats and schemists seem to have so much faith in is just a mechanism by which Chinese keep focus away from Tibet and KM. By making an inroad here and there and then withdrawing they are only trying and getting our policy makers up a 'Chana ka Jhar'. As most of the incursions and withdrawals are happening behind public eye and bureacrats like Alka Acharya and experts like Guha keep rattling how nicely the joint mechanism is holding. All this only achieves one goal: That of solidifying Chinese prescence in Tibet and keeping Tibet and KM fade away from the Indian public and policy maker world view.

Basically we have not even whimpered one bit anywhere that KM cannot be Han. We have leftists talk and rail against imperialism. The biggest imperial act in modern times has been Han take over control of the KM region and it's occupation of Tibet. There has not been one voice anywhere against this. Defacto we have acknowledged that Lord Shiva is Chinese. That has already happened. JLN and ABV both stupidly endorsed that without any public debate with an eye to Oslo. The ongoing battle now is Nepal with time frame 5-10 years at maximum. With that in 2 decades we have UP and Bihar turning majority Islamic states. China gives recognition in exchange of Bodh Gaya. The HAn would have claimed Buddha and Shiva.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby harbans » 26 Apr 2013 18:13

X Post:

Rajesh Ji wrote: at the moment as I mentioned, many unawakened Indians do not consider Tibetans as a part of them, on the one hand because they look "different", but also because they are Buddhists, and Hindus have put up a little wall around them, based on historical narratives - both Hindu as well as Colonial/Macaulayite.

It is for this reason, that Hindus have not embraced the Tibetans as our brethren who long for liberation from their oppressors. Changing this can take some time.

But Kailash-Mansarovar are central to Hindu narratives, and hence it should be much easier to get our blood heated and to have a Shiv Bhoomi Mukti Sangharsh. This then can link up with Tibet Independence Movement and Buddhism.




I wrote: Yes we should have had a Shiv Bhoomi Mukti Jagran Sangarsh by now. We should have been talking to the Chinese to hand over the entire KM region all 400k sq km and discussing the Northern and Eastern boundaries with Tibet on that matter. Every time we meet up with Chinese leaders we should have kept this on the table. The best way to do this IMO is to make a deal with HH Dalai Lama that this 400k Sq km region shall be a Shiv Dharmsthal with direct routes from India and Tibet without visa etc. In exchange we recognize openly that the legitimate Govt of Tibet is the one in Dharmasala.

Our discussion with Chinese along with the Tibetans should be 2 step: Step 1 that Chinese move out of KM region. We will discuss the northern boundaries. Step 2 Chinese discuss with Tibet the Northern and Eastern boundaries of the Tibetan state. The border management talks of course conducted maturely must be on where on Tibet's Northern and Eastern boundaries do the Chinese get back too. Irony is right now we are discussing boundaries a few km away from our hinterlands! Nonsense about mature nations discuss and talk..lets atleast get right what we should be talking about in the first place!

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Singha » 26 Apr 2013 19:24

every day the distance inside India where they pitched the camp keeps on increasing to somewhere near the real truth...today it is 19 KM per a report in parliament.

ibnlive:
New Delhi: The government on Friday told a Parliamentary Committee that Chinese troops have pitched tents 19 kms deep inside the Indian territory in Ladakh region of Jammu and Kashmir and that efforts are underway to ensure that the status quo is maintained. Defence Secretary Shashi Kant Sharma and some other senior officials informed the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence that India has deployed forces to "keep a close watch on the border", sources said.

Sharma and other officials appeared before the Committee after BJP members Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi and Prakash Javadekar wanted to know the actual ground situation in Depsang sector of Ladakh where the Chinese incursion took place in Daulat Beg Oldie area a week ago.
The meeting of the committee was cut short as members were dissatisfied with the insufficient information provided by the officials and they were asked to report back at the next meeting on May 30 with appropriate and exact details of the situation.


----
defence secy shashi kant sharma who is the admin head under the defence minister and runs the entire MOD is unaware of the exact details 2 weeks after it happens :rotfl:

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby rohitvats » 26 Apr 2013 23:17

^^^And as per the rules and regulations, the defence of the Union of India lies with Defence Secretary.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby RoyG » 26 Apr 2013 23:21

19 km? wtf o_O

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Rudradev » 27 Apr 2013 04:00

So broadly speaking, our options at this point are limited to:

1) Move aggressively against the intruding formation near DBO.

Advantages: We push back exactly where the intrusion took place, and if successful, restore status quo on our own terms. If this had been done very quickly after the intrusion occurred it would have signaled something about IA's preparedness to the Chinese, but that advantage is gone now. However, there is another small advantage, in that we may gain the same sort of diplomatic sympathy at international fora as we did during Kargil (when we didn't cross LOC but forced Pakis back to exactly where the ceasefire line used to be.) FWIW.

Disadvantages: China may have wanted to provoke exactly this, and may have prepared an escalatory response in theater. We will be walkingi into their trap, dancing to their script.

2) Make a tit-for-tat grab/advance in some other part of the border. Demchok, Sikkim, Tawang. Intrude 20 km and set up tents on the far side. Be prepared to supply the forward element and back them up with full force if things get hot.

Advantages: If successful we (a) demonstrate a willingness to escalate on our terms, cf Sumdorong Chu (b) gain a bargaining chip for restoring status quo (c) test the PLA's defense preparedness in other sectors.

Disadvantages: We are widening the conflict; not advisable unless we are fully prepared for a multi-sector (rather than localized) clash. Also we're risking broader/higher escalation that we may not be able to handle. (Though even in terms of anticipated escalation, we may enjoy an advantage of surprise by doing this... as opposed to striking back in the DBO sector, which the Chinese are more likely to have prepared for.)

3) Precipitate an international incident, or near-incident, that forces China to show its cards. This could be any kind of aggressive move not directly involved with the India/China border. For example: feint with land/air forces at Paki positions west of Siachen, or other places in Northern Areas around KKH and see what the Chinese do in response. Deploy IN vessels to South China Sea for aggressive patrolling and see what the Chinese do in response. Surround Coco Island PLAN base, or Chinese-controlled Gwadar or Hambantota harbours, with IN vessels and see what the Chinese do in response.

Advantages: These are scenarios PLA may not at all have planned for. Depending on how we see their diplomatic/rhetorical/military disposition change... their reactions may reveal much about what their original intentions were when inducting the DBO provocation. Also a nice reminder of their vulnerability at sea, especially the Malacca choke point, may not hurt.

Disadvantage: We run the risk of miscalculation if we get into any theater where there are complex international relations coming into play (SE Asia, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, Burma.) And of course, our armed forces may be nowhere near prepared to undertake these sorts of missions.

4) Do nothing at all. Agree to China's demands on fortified structures, patrolling etc. and hope they go away.

Advantages: Path of least risk and least resistance. Non-Traitor PM Manmohan Singh can attempt to win glory for the UPA by claiming the Chinese Premier's forthcoming visit as a foreign-policy success. Instead of the rapid economic decline associated with hostility and war, we can peacefully continue with the gradual, systemic economic decline created by the UPA administration.

Disadvantages: Hardly need to list them. We lose territory, and reward behaviour that will invariably lead to losing more territory (plus other losses).

5) Test a thermonuclear device; do an ICBM test with mated thermonuke warhead delivery. Carry on with a series of tests of live SLBMs, SLCMs etc. Test to our hearts' content and say it's the Chinese's damn fault for trying to provoke a war and interrupting a fragile peace.

Advantages: Shows China (and everyone else who needs to know) exactly what our deterrence level is. Forces the Chinese to rethink on the possible consequences of escalating against an IA pushback at DBO.

Disadvantages: We "look irresponsible", and may appear panicked. We come in for all kinds of sanctions. Worst of all, maybe we don't have any working thermonuclear warhead designs and our missiles are duds... what would we look like then?

6) Up the ante on diplomatic/economic front. Slap heavy tariffs on all Chinese imports. Rescind recognition of Tibet occupation by China and maybe even (as Harbans ji emphatically argues) make additional border claims on Kailash Mansarovar.

Advantages: Brings pressure on Chinese players with business interests in India, to influence their govt away from their present course of action. Diplomatic moves show that we are quite capable of playing the same cat-and-mouse game with border claims, etc. as China is.

Disadvantages: Chinese players with business interests in India may turn out to be too lappu to do anything for us. Indian business interests in China would also suffer (though they would suffer in the event of a war anyway.) On the diplomatic front, we will look toothless and weak if we simply make territorial claims without showing one dram of the military resolve necessary to back them up with credibility.

7) Go in for much deeper strategic/military cooperation with the US. Become the nightmare that Beijing always feared we would. Or at least make large visible strides in that direction (sign EULA, CISMOA, go in for large-scale naval exercises with US/Aus/Japan/Taiwan) etc.

Advantages: Puts all the cards on the table and sharpens the lines between opposing alliances in Asia. Compels the US also to make its stand more explicit in support of India and Japan.

Disadvantages: Commits us to a future foreign policy course of action, restricts our future degrees of freedom. Results in a shocking loss of our strategic autonomy to the US. Are we prepared to do this, just to get a few Chyepta rat-eaters to back out of DBO?

****

These are all the categories of action I can think of that present themselves in the near-to-medium term, at least near enough to make sense in light of this specific provocation. Other patangs have been udaaoed in the past (give Brahmos to Vietnam, build IN base at Nha Trang etc.), and I think we should continue to pursue those options regardless of what happens in this event. In fact we should pursue them with greater focus and determination now that the provocation has occurred. BUT these steps are too long-term in their implementation to serve us given the immediate scenario. The question is, how do we respond to the DBO provocation.

As a thought-experiment, let's pretend we are the GOI, and using the best of our cumulative knowledge as BR members, let's try to determine what policy WE would recommend in the prevailing situation. Forget being "ahead of the curve"... let's put our thinking on the line here.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 27 Apr 2013 05:09


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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby ShauryaT » 27 Apr 2013 06:09

>>let's put our thinking on the line here.

China knows our game. We will not do anything to escalate, by ourselves but will defend. Sumdurong Chu is what they have gamed for. The only way, to "win" this game of brinkmanship is to escalate.

My recommendation is to cut off supply routes to the encroached PLA troops. Then it is upon PRC to escalate. Knowing fully well that any escalation by PRC would be matched and they just do not have the strength or the will to fight us in our backyard, they will back down.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 27 Apr 2013 06:30

I agree that the Chinese incursion now mimics exactly the Somdurong Chu incident of 1986. Somdurong Chu escalation was a means by PRC to force the border negotiations in a particular way. Then, as now, the Chinese maintained that they had not intruded into Indian territory and were patrolling within their borders. That incident also happened just before an important meeting, the Seventh Round of border talks. The present incursion could also be a similar attempt. The reference by the Chinese spokeswoman that these incidents would happen if the border problem remains unsolved (paraphrasing) is a clue, I would presume. The Chinese are emboldened by the fact that eventually Somdurong Chu has come under their control.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Pranav » 27 Apr 2013 06:30

ShauryaT wrote:>>let's put our thinking on the line here.

China knows our game. We will not do anything to escalate, by ourselves but will defend. Sumdurong Chu is what they have gamed for. The only way, to "win" this game of brinkmanship is to escalate.

My recommendation is to cut off supply routes to the encroached PLA troops. Then it is upon PRC to escalate. Knowing fully well that any escalation by PRC would be matched and they just do not have the strength or the will to fight us in our backyard, they will back down.


This is my recommendation too.

Cut off supplies ... start crowding them on the ground. If any helis try to intrude, scramble our own helis / jets and buzz them. Try to grab any airdropped supplies, etc.

Meanwhile be on alert all along the LAC in other sectors.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby abhishek_sharma » 27 Apr 2013 09:04

>> The Chinese are emboldened by the fact that eventually Somdurong Chu has come under their control.

How did that happen?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Sravan » 27 Apr 2013 09:09



I think this has something to do with the Chinese. Any insight on this?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby member_23629 » 27 Apr 2013 09:15

SSridhar wrote:I agree that the Chinese incursion now mimics exactly the Somdurong Chu incident of 1986. Somdurong Chu escalation was a means by PRC to force the border negotiations in a particular way. Then, as now, the Chinese maintained that they had not intruded into Indian territory and were patrolling within their borders. That incident also happened just before an important meeting, the Seventh Round of border talks. The present incursion could also be a similar attempt. The reference by the Chinese spokeswoman that these incidents would happen if the border problem remains unsolved (paraphrasing) is a clue, I would presume. The Chinese are emboldened by the fact that eventually Somdurong Chu has come under their control.


The main problem is that Chinese don't fear the Indians. Nehru, the air-headed philosopher, has given Hans a psychological advantage against India. Worse, he gave away all bargaining chips (Tibet) without asking for anything in return. We need to kill some Chinese to make them wary of us.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Pranav » 27 Apr 2013 09:25

varunkumar wrote:We need to kill some Chinese to make them wary of us.


We are not even exercising the many options we have short of that so your ire would be more accurately directed against the folks managing the situation in Delhi.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby RajeshA » 27 Apr 2013 09:32

Rudradev garu,

sent you an email with a couple of suggestions.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Prem » 27 Apr 2013 09:39

Any Polictician holding Kala Dhan acount in Macau sholuld be the first one to be shot in Public. Chinese will go back this time but wait few months , they will be back with ten time the manpower and intrusion. They have shown the Intent and we have shown them the Pretent instead of cutting the L++Li of Bullie, the response is that of clueless Collie sleeping in Dilli.
Open the new front and Lets invite the Uighers to establish governmenet in exile in India Near Dharmasala .

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Singha » 27 Apr 2013 09:52

kings of the hill fight like this to protect their vital interests http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qt2Q4BB8nRg

weak and pleasure seeking ruling classes hunt around for rationalizations for inaction.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby ramana » 27 Apr 2013 09:59

Pak is an orphan. The US-Pak alliance is broken and needs to be mended. Pak faces elections in May. The PRC move in DBO is to support this orphan TSP in case India gets ideas.
Mushy being jailed could lead to an Army revolt. I see this as a move to support TSP.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 27 Apr 2013 10:00

abhishek_sharma wrote:>> The Chinese are emboldened by the fact that eventually Somdurong Chu has come under their control.

How did that happen?


Negligence, I think.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby SSridhar » 27 Apr 2013 10:03

Sravan wrote:I think this has something to do with the Chinese. Any insight on this?

This is something else. Related to incidents that took place during a routine exercise when the officers and the jawans clashed last year. Indiscipline.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Sravan » 27 Apr 2013 11:07

SSridhar wrote:
Sravan wrote:I think this has something to do with the Chinese. Any insight on this?

This is something else. Related to incidents that took place during a routine exercise when the officers and the jawans clashed last year. Indiscipline.


My question is why would the jawans disobey a commanding officer?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Singha » 27 Apr 2013 11:57

Can you take your query to the ia thread in the other forum.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Sravan » 27 Apr 2013 12:16

Singha wrote:Can you take your query to the ia thread in the other forum.


will do.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby RoyG » 27 Apr 2013 12:45

This b*tch Alka Acharya pissed off all the panelists by batting for the Chinese. It's no wonder our diplomacy is in the doldrums. What a rotten state of affairs.

http://www.timesnow.tv/Debate-Rigid-Chi ... 426139.cms

http://www.timesnow.tv/Debate-Rigid-Chi ... 426140.cms

http://www.timesnow.tv/Debate-Rigid-Chi ... 426141.cms

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Sravan » 27 Apr 2013 12:51

RoyG wrote:This b*tch Alka Acharya pissed off all the panelists by batting for the Chinese. It's no wonder our diplomacy is in the doldrums. What a rotten state of affairs.

http://www.timesnow.tv/Debate-Rigid-Chi ... 426139.cms

http://www.timesnow.tv/Debate-Rigid-Chi ... 426140.cms

http://www.timesnow.tv/Debate-Rigid-Chi ... 426141.cms


Completely agree with you, Roy epitomizes the lack of self confidence in Indian policy. You don't negotiate with someone who commits an act of war.


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