Managing Chinese Threat

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Pranav » 27 Apr 2013 20:30

eklavya wrote:The Chinese don't recognise that J&K and Arunachal Pradesh are part of India. Why should we recognise that Tibet is part of China. Historically, linguistically, culturally and geographically, it is not a part of China.

I feel no need to co-opt with a country who is actively harming my country with a view of suppressing it politically, diplomatically, economically and militarily. If you don't even recognise who your mortal enemy is, you will die.


Your mortal enemy is your corrupt and compromised leadership.

I do agree that we should not have recognized Tibet as a part of China without, at the very least, recognition from China about J&K and Arunachal. But derecognizing Tibet now would be a meaningless gesture.

We should simply respond to the present incursion by surrounding the 30 gentlemen at the campsite and waiting for them to run out of food. We could also reciprocate in kind by pitching tents elsewhere in the disputed zone.

Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Pranav » 27 Apr 2013 20:34

Singha wrote:In a time of moral and political decay, clinging on to some romantic nehruvian vision of statecraft is guaranteed to kill this country one way or another.

Hard nosed players are needed at the table not congi cur.


Totally agree.

We do need to be practical and act in enlightened self-interest.

eklavya
BRFite
Posts: 1872
Joined: 16 Nov 2004 23:57

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 27 Apr 2013 20:43

Yes, our leadership today has been tested and found to be lacking. They have signalled weakness and unwillingness to take action with every single statement. They deserve to be retired, at least half of them to jail.

I like the idea of a siege. Viv S on another thread was talking about blockading Chinese merchant shipping through the Malacca Straits; lets see if we can blockade an enemy camp with 32 soldiers 20 km inside India. We can simply play VERY loud music and make it impossible for these guys to sleep; in a few days they will die of exhaustion.

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5246
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby ShauryaT » 27 Apr 2013 20:52

harbans wrote:Till date i have heard only 1 mention by Brahma Chellaney on TV regarding flagging the Tibet card and precisely 0 mentions anywhere regarding the Kailash Mansarover region.
Harbans ji: You may not hear it in the words you desire, but all I will say is the crux of the issue is not lost and there are words on record that the whole of Tibet is effectively "disputed" from the person occupying the highest office of the land.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Singha » 27 Apr 2013 21:56

Ajai shukla blog:

China has clearly signaled its discomfort with India’s troop build up, submitting a draft proposal for a freeze on troop levels that will solidify and make permanent India’s disadvantage along the LAC. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), eager to create “deliverables” that could create an air of success around Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to India next month, is studying the proposal.

Karan Dixit
BRFite
Posts: 1102
Joined: 23 Mar 2007 02:43
Location: Calcutta

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Karan Dixit » 27 Apr 2013 22:00

If air is the only medium available to supply Indian army in DBO or any other ALGs then the ALGs will have to be secured by creating secure perimeters with a radius of at least 30km. Troops have to be deployed at the end of these perimeters. Roads have to be built between the ALGs and the deployed troops as supply routes. Without this ALGs are going to be as useless as sitting ducks.

eklavya
BRFite
Posts: 1872
Joined: 16 Nov 2004 23:57

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 27 Apr 2013 22:07

ShauryaT wrote:
harbans wrote:Till date i have heard only 1 mention by Brahma Chellaney on TV regarding flagging the Tibet card and precisely 0 mentions anywhere regarding the Kailash Mansarover region.
Harbans ji: You may not hear it in the words you desire, but all I will say is the crux of the issue is not lost and there are words on record that the whole of Tibet is effectively "disputed" from the person occupying the highest office of the land.


Where are these words? Link please.

Why is Manmohan Singh talking about "localised problem" in talking about the DBO incursion? It is not a local problem, it is a national problem. But this PM wants to unilaterally withdrawn from Siachen even without demarcation, and he signed the Sharm-el-Sheikh statement less than 8 months after 26/11, so we cannot expect anything better from him.

sanjeevpunj
BRFite
Posts: 971
Joined: 04 Sep 2009 13:10

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby sanjeevpunj » 27 Apr 2013 22:12

We need to think big and expand our boundaries, pushing out these intruding chinese scum.We must target even Mansarovar, and push our boundaries till there.We ought to grab all the peaks in the Himalayas actually,so we always have an upper position in case of war with China.

brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby brihaspati » 27 Apr 2013 23:00

Pranav ji,
if you think China will ever cooperate with India against the "west", it will be a very big blunder.

If India makes any move that may weaken China seriously, parts of US establishment may come forward with applause (sincerely too), while the remainder of US establishment will combine with almost all of UK establishment to prevent India from gaining such a ground.

China's rise was and is still being facilitated by the UK-US axis, as a means of keeping Asia devoid of Russian and Indian influence. The east-west main drugs and criminal finance network that was developed by the Brits during their IOR presence days, has continued under various shapes and cover since then.

Most communist movements of the world have had tell-tale connections to UK at some stage of their early days, and just because China is being ruled by a communist party does not necessarily mean it is not in alliance in some sense with two major players of the west. The thing started off during the fag end stages of the WWII when Mao showed for a time how flexibly the Chinese communists can and will if necessary - lick western boots - for its own imperialist ambitions. It was the same mindset that reached out periodically to the west culminating in the Mao-Nixon meet.

Do not think CPC will not be helped out by UK (more) and USA (less)- where it is a matter of India's interest.

India has to stake its claims on its own. At best it can take the Mao route by showing that it is willing to help out the west in return for confirming India's own expansions.

eklavya
BRFite
Posts: 1872
Joined: 16 Nov 2004 23:57

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 27 Apr 2013 23:08

Singha wrote:Ajai shukla blog:

China has clearly signaled its discomfort with India’s troop build up, submitting a draft proposal for a freeze on troop levels that will solidify and make permanent India’s disadvantage along the LAC. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), eager to create “deliverables” that could create an air of success around Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to India next month, is studying the proposal.


Surely Indian Army, IAF and IN will oppose such a proposal tooth and nail. There is no sense whatsoever in making our disadvantage permanent, and anyway the Chinese will lie and cheat.

Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Pranav » 28 Apr 2013 00:19

brihaspati wrote:Pranav ji,
if you think China will ever cooperate with India against the "west", it will be a very big blunder.

If India makes any move that may weaken China seriously, parts of US establishment may come forward with applause (sincerely too), while the remainder of US establishment will combine with almost all of UK establishment to prevent India from gaining such a ground.

China's rise was and is still being facilitated by the UK-US axis, as a means of keeping Asia devoid of Russian and Indian influence. The east-west main drugs and criminal finance network that was developed by the Brits during their IOR presence days, has continued under various shapes and cover since then.

Most communist movements of the world have had tell-tale connections to UK at some stage of their early days, and just because China is being ruled by a communist party does not necessarily mean it is not in alliance in some sense with two major players of the west. The thing started off during the fag end stages of the WWII when Mao showed for a time how flexibly the Chinese communists can and will if necessary - lick western boots - for its own imperialist ambitions. It was the same mindset that reached out periodically to the west culminating in the Mao-Nixon meet.

Do not think CPC will not be helped out by UK (more) and USA (less)- where it is a matter of India's interest.

India has to stake its claims on its own. At best it can take the Mao route by showing that it is willing to help out the west in return for confirming India's own expansions.


B ji what you say has certainly been true historically, but imho China is now regarded as a competitor and rival. For example, there has been an embargo by the west on hi-tech defense exports to China for a decade now.

For India, there may be some scope for balancing between rival powers to get the best possible deal. We will probably need to engage with all sides simultaneously while we work towards pacifying the subcontinent.
Last edited by Pranav on 28 Apr 2013 01:09, edited 3 times in total.

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21177
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Prem » 28 Apr 2013 00:24

Pranav wrote:
Singha wrote:In a time of moral and political decay, clinging on to some romantic nehruvian vision of statecraft is guaranteed to kill this country one way or another.Hard nosed players are needed at the table not congi cur.
Totally agree. We do need to be practical and act in enlightened self-interest.


Has this we not been saying for the last many years! Compromised leadership with fixation to permanently condemn the son of soil to nothing ness had created disappointment and demoarlized the majority people. Indian Hanuman syndrome was diagnosed 15 years ago and BDY RNI Leeches made sure no one get to work on Kaaj of Ram lest nation wake up from slumber.
This dying Dhimmi political generation will take its own toll before the actual weeding of Indian governing landscape happen for next Generation to take over.

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21177
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Prem » 28 Apr 2013 00:48

Dupe ---Ungal ka Boongle!
Deleted
Last edited by Prem on 28 Apr 2013 00:51, edited 1 time in total.

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21177
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Prem » 28 Apr 2013 00:48

Indian should suse this incident and annouce the strategic review of Nuclear policy, testing and deployment. Let Chinese get their just dessert for tactical brilliance.
Review Tibet Policy
Review Nuclear Policy
Review Indus Water Treaty Because of Dams on Brahmputra
Review Uigher Policy
Review Maritime Doctrine

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21177
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Prem » 28 Apr 2013 01:24

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy ... 366997454/
China, India spar over Persian Gulf oil

ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates, April 26 (UPI) -- China's plan to build a second aircraft carrier and the Indian navy's recent test-firing of a submarine-launched cruise missile should be ringing alarm bells in the Persian Gulf.Beijing and New Delhi are squaring off militarily in the Indian Ocean, the key energy artery from the Middle East and Africa to the Asian giants who need the oil and gas to fuel their expanding economies.
At the same time, both states -- but China in particular -- have sharply boosted investment in Middle Eastern and African energy resources.These days, more Persian Gulf oil exports goes east than west to Europe and the United States. China, for instance, imports 55 percent of its oil from the gulf.The U.S. Navy provides the security along the Indian Ocean shipping routes but as the decades-old American domination in the Middle East erodes, and the prospect of a U.S.-Chinese stand-off in the Pacific grows, the strategic dynamics in the Indian Ocean are also changing as China and India seek to secure their access to energy supplies.That stretches from one strategic choke point, the Strait of Hormuz, the only way in or out of the Persian Gulf, to the Malacca Strait, another vital waterway between Indonesia and Malaysia that links the Indian Ocean with the South China Sea.Both of these narrow waterways are key channels in the oil and natural gas routes from the Middle East to Asia.In August 2012, India inaugurated a new naval and air base in the southern tip of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, a chain of 572 islands strung across the eastern exit of the Bay of Bengal, that will command the Malacca Strait.Eighty percent of China's oil imports from the Middle East and Africa pass through that 560-mile waterway. All told, 50,000 commercial vessels, 40 percent of the world's trade, transit the strait every year.The Andaman facility is only one of the new chain of bases and intelligence-gathering centers across the region that India's setting up as it builds its naval, missile and air forces.China's doing the same thing, with a "string of pearls" network of ports and bases around India's.Middle Eastern concerns about a Chinese-Indian confrontation in the region were heightened recently after Rear Adm. Yin Zhou, a senior Chinese navy officer, proposed building a naval base in the Gulf of Aden, taking Chinese expansion even further west than it is now.
Ostensibly, Yin's idea was to support China's naval flotilla attached to the international anti-piracy task force off Somalia.But given China's naval expansion, it would make sense for Beijing to seek a military foothold in the Gulf of Aden, adding another strategic dimension and threat of conflict to a region already riddled with risk.The vulnerability of the Indian Ocean route is one reason China's pressing its claim to the Paracel and Spratly islands in the South China Sea so forcefully, increasingly using warships to back its claim.Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also claim the islands, and interestingly, India's state-owned ONGC Videsh energy company has a joint oil and gas exploration venture with Vietnam, pushing its rivalry with China.The South China Seas islands contain unproven reserves of up to 213 billion barrels of oil, enough to rival Saudi Arabia's proven reserves of 265.4 billion barrels.If conflict flares there, it could lead to a critical confrontation in the Indian Ocean as well to secure the all-important tankers routes from the Persian Gulf.

Muppalla
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7096
Joined: 12 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Muppalla » 28 Apr 2013 01:37

The argument that China will help against west or west will help India against China are bs of highest order. Both west and China together are in collusion of "operation screw India" since 1947. To break that partnership both of them are asking a huge compromise on the idea of India's independence. The statecraft cannot make either of them as enemy or as friend. This whole discussion is too late and waste. India has to treat China as equal as Pakistan even at emotional level to safeguard India. The problem I see is that many Indians does not consider China in the sameway we see Pakistan and hence this mental masturbation. What they did is just equal to Kargil and the response has to be same but mechanism may be different because this is bigger power. All other discussions are just hot air.

eklavya
BRFite
Posts: 1872
Joined: 16 Nov 2004 23:57

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 28 Apr 2013 01:40

Brahma Chellaney on the China incursion. He's on the money.

Ladakh incursion: Is China taking advantage of India’s leadership deficit & political disarray?

28 Apr, 2013, 01.03AM

By Brahma Chellaney

With China's "peaceful rise" giving way to a more muscular approach, Beijing has broadened its "core interests" and exhibited a growing readiness to take risks. As if to highlight its new multidirectional assertiveness, China's occupation of a 19-km deep Indian border area close to the strategic Karakoram Pass has coincided with its escalating challenge to Japan's decades-old control of the Senkaku Islands. China is aggressively conducting regular patrols to solidify its sovereignty claims in the South and East China seas and to furtively enlarge its footprint in the Himalayan borderlands.

In this light, it will be a mistake to view the Chinese intrusion in Ladakh in isolation of the larger pattern of increasing Chinese assertiveness that began when Beijing revived its long-dormant claim to Arunachal Pradesh just before the 2006 India visit by its president, Hu Jintao. The resurrection of that claim, which was followed by its provoking territorial spats with several other neighbours, was the first pointer to China staking out a more domineering role in Asia. It was as if China had decided that its moment has finally arrived.

Deep Betrayal

Playing a game of chicken, China has been posing major new challenges to India, ratcheting up strategic pressure on multiple flanks, including stepping up cross-border military forays and shortening the length of the Sino-Indian border so as to question India's territorial sovereignty in the eastern and western sectors. It has repeatedly attempted to breach the Himalayan border through incursions by taking advantage of the fact that the frontier is vast and forbidding and thus difficult to effectively patrol by Indian forces, who are located in many sections on the lower heights. When an incursion is discovered, Beijing's refrain — as in the present episode — is that its troops are on "Chinese land".

Still, the intrusion into a highly strategic area shows India's political and army leadership in poor light and exposes the country's floundering China policy.

Along with the subsequent violation of Indian airspace by Chinese helicopters in Ladakh, it brings out how China is seeking to alter the realities on the ground by exploiting India's leadership deficit and political disarray, which have crimped military modernisation and undermined national security. The question the Indian army leadership must answer is how it was caught napping in a militarily critical area where, in the recent past, China repeatedly had made attempts to encroach on Indian land.

Indian Lethargy

Instead of regular Indian army troops patrolling the line of control, border police have been deployed. The Indo-Tibetan Border Police personnel, with their defensive training and mindset, are no match to the aggressive designs of the People's Liberation Army and thus continue to be outwitted by them. Even in response to the incursion, the government has sent ITBP and Ladakh Scouts, not regular army troops, to pitch tents at a safe distance from the intruders' camp.

Worse yet, India remains focused on the process than on the substance of diplomacy, even as China steps up its belligerence. Process is important but only if it buys you time to build countervailing leverage. Unfortunately, a rudderless India has made little effort to craft such leverage. Rather, New Delhi is playing right into Chinese hands by merely flaunting the process of engagement and thereby aiding Beijing's strategy to use this process as cover to further change the status quo on the ground.

India's defensive and diffident mindset has been on full display in the latest episode. Not only has it publicly downplayed an act of naked aggression — the worst Chinese intrusion since the 1986 Sumdorong Chu incursion brought the two countries to the brink of war — but India also insists on going with an outstretched hand to an adversary still engaged in hostile actions, unconcerned that it could get the short end of the stick yet again.

Missing Political Will

India should be under no illusion that diplomacy alone will persuade China to withdraw its soldiers. One way to force China's hand would be for the Indian army to intrude and occupy a highly strategic area elsewhere across the line of control and use that gain as a trade-off.

More fundamentally, India can maintain border peace only by leaving China in no doubt that it has the capability and political will to defend peace. If the Chinese see an opportunity to nibble at Indian land, they will seize it. It is for India to ensure that such opportunities do not arise. In other words, the Himalayan peace ball is very much in India's court. India must have a clear counter-strategy to tame Chinese aggressiveness. Tibet remains at the core of the Sino-Indian divide, with India's growing strategic ties with the US rankling China. Even as old rifts persist, new issues are roiling the ties.

Booming bilateral trade, including a widening trade surplus in China's favour, has failed to subdue Chinese belligerence. Although in 1962 China set out, in the words of premier, Zhou Enlai, to "teach India a lesson", it has frittered away the political gains it made by decisively defeating India on the battleground. Indeed, as military tensions rise and border incidents increase, the relationship risks coming full circle.

Vajpayee's Cut

To build countervailing leverage, India has little choice but to slowly reopen the central issue of Tibet — a card New Delhi wholly surrendered at the altar of diplomacy during the time Atal Bihari Vajpayee was prime minister. Of course, the process of surrendering the card began under Jawaharlal Nehru when India in 1954 recognised the "Tibet region of China" without any quid pro quo — not even Beijing's acceptance of the then prevailing Indo-Tibetan border.

Vajpayee's recognition of full Chinese sovereignty over Tibet was based on Beijing's acknowledgement that Tibet is an "autonomous region" in China. The fact that China has squashed Tibet's autonomy creates an opening for India to take a more nuanced position.

More broadly, China's "string of pearls" strategy can be countered by forming a "string of rapiers" with like-minded Asian-Pacific countries. At the root of the growing tensions and insecurity in Asia is China's ongoing strategy to subvert the status quo. Only mutually beneficial cooperation can shield Asian peace and economic renaissance, not muscleflexing and furtive moves.

Bade
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7212
Joined: 23 May 2002 11:31
Location: badenberg in US administered part of America

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Bade » 28 Apr 2013 01:47

The way to deal with the Chinese is with 'laath'. I get the feeling that most of people who participate in this thread have not had to deal with them in real life. It should not be surprising the character of their nation and its policies show up in individuals too, even if it is not PC to say so even on this forum. People waiting eternally for reform there and spiritual renaissance are all wasting their time IMO. Talk tough and do not back out, be firm and advance forward is the only way out of any mess with them. Negotiating is never an answer. Tactics which worked with Brits are not going to work with them period.

Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Pranav » 28 Apr 2013 01:59

Muppalla wrote:Both west and China together are in collusion of "operation screw India" since 1947.

Weakness invites aggression.

But everybody acts in their own self interest. The calculation of what constitutes self-interest can change. E.g. Saudis decided recently that returning Abu Jundal to India was in their interest.
Last edited by Pranav on 28 Apr 2013 02:34, edited 1 time in total.

shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6900
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby shyamd » 28 Apr 2013 02:03

India and US will hold meeting next week in DC regarding china led by MEA. Then both sides will hold prep meetings with Japan for trilateral in DC. Talk is about expanding investment and aid in Myanmar to prevent PRC influence.

rohitvats
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 7734
Joined: 08 Sep 2005 18:24
Location: Jatland

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby rohitvats » 28 Apr 2013 02:16

eklavya wrote:<SNIP>The question the Indian army leadership must answer is how it was caught napping in a militarily critical area where, in the recent past, China repeatedly had made attempts to encroach on Indian land.

<SNIP>


As a strategic analyst, BC should know better than to make the above comment.

And before someone starts using the above as another limp noodle to bash the IA, please be aware of the ground situation.

- The eastern border is not manned to same extent as the western border. Unlike western border where literally every square-inch of territory is guarded, no such things happens in the east. Especially Ladakh, Himachal and Uttarakhand.

- Multiple reasons: The NEFA/AP boundary where the bulk of fighting took place has always been considered more sensitive and was hence, stocked with troops.

- So, number of troops are sparse on the ground and one cannot replicate the western model here.

- Further, the border is actually manned by the ITBP. Don't ask why - something to do with 'sensibilities' and such stuff. Not under the control of IA. IA does the patrolling part in addition to ITBP.

- And 30 people on ground is nothing for this vast sector. Bigger caravans have perished in past in this wilderness w/o nary a peep. The PLA was not trying to hide itself. It wanted to be seen and hence, chose to place tent in a particular region.

- And when you don't have defined border (by self or by mutual understanding), you have the unique situation of asking your soldiers to defend something but not give them authority to fire/retaliate if the other party commits transgression.

eklavya
BRFite
Posts: 1872
Joined: 16 Nov 2004 23:57

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 28 Apr 2013 02:29

^^^^
Brahma Chellaney is only voicing what most observers quite rightly believe. With the right planning and preparation we would not be where we are today. Even today, if the strength of the IAF is brought to bear, China can be be given a sound thrashing, in SSN, and in other sectors.

rohitvats
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 7734
Joined: 08 Sep 2005 18:24
Location: Jatland

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby rohitvats » 28 Apr 2013 02:51

eklavya wrote:^^^^
Brahma Chellaney is only voicing what most observers quite rightly believe. With the right planning and preparation we would not be where we are today. Even today, if the strength of the IAF is brought to bear, China can be be given a sound thrashing, in SSN, and in other sectors.


You are jumping the gun here.

Right planning and preparation is not the sole responsibility of IA. It can only voice its opinion and give advise to GOI. And act within the constraints of rules and regulations. It is the GOI which decides on the possible course of action. This is not Indo-Pakistan border where any transgression will first be automatically met with hail-fire of bullets and then the IA will look for guidance from political leadership for counter-attack or such stuff.

You can very well imagine the level of political control by the fact that it requires GOI/MEA to decide what to do with 30 soldiers squatting on Indian territory. IA is not permitted to even fire shots in anger here.

Also, it is the government which signed the Peace and Tranquility Agreement with China in 1993 which led to thinning of troops on LAC. It is the GOI which decides on the force level which IA has and can deploy. Till recently, the Finance Ministry had turned back the MSC proposal citing that China may not be a long term threat to warrant such an expenditure. And BTW, the concept of MSC and additional divisions for northern & eastern sectors was put forward in 1986. Yes, 26 years ago. And General KV Krishna Rao had asked for and got permission for developing infra in border areas with China in early 80s. But the same was not allowed to reach its desired level.

member_23692
BRFite
Posts: 441
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby member_23692 » 28 Apr 2013 02:59

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-China-finalize-plans-to-hold-anti-terrorism-drills-even-as-PLA-intrusion-in-Ladakh-continues/articleshow/19756948.cms

What message does this send to the Chinese and the world ?

And RohitVas, what you are stating is the obvious, that it is GOI and not the Indian Army which is the decision maker. So what ? Eklavya's point was that the decision makers should act. If you dont think they should act, then please state your reasons. You did list one that there is very little Army presence there and that it was the Government which signed agreements which lead to this low presence. That is A reason, but not a justification, is it ? So, did the government do a wise thing ?

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21177
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Prem » 28 Apr 2013 05:58

Singha wrote:INeither side was totally clean imo. What i got is once one side breaks the rules the other side must play dirty as well or risk getting wiped out. In a time of moral and political decay, clinging on to some romantic nehruvian vision of statecraft is guaranteed to kill this country one way or another.
Hard nosed players are needed at the table not congi cur.


Satyayuga rules dont apply in Treta and Treta rules not in Dwapar, similarily Kayugi problems require Kalyugi solutions. To deal with Pakifools require Paki type solutions and to deal with Chinese deception reuire similar deceptive tools while keeping cool and slimy stinking smile.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Singha » 28 Apr 2013 09:20

This week 8 chinese spy ships and 40 fighter sorties were recorded over the senkaku islands disputed with japan.

China wants every island in the sea to the shore of all the pacrim nations down to indonesia.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23387
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Austin » 28 Apr 2013 09:42

Singha wrote:This week 8 chinese spy ships and 40 fighter sorties were recorded over the senkaku islands disputed with japan.

China wants every island in the sea to the shore of all the pacrim nations down to indonesia.


More like posturing that keeps the pot on boil but beyond that nothing would happen , neither china would attack nor these nations would attack China........ even any serious threat of small war would lead to turmoil on financial market specially wrt to china.

Remeber even in Kargils case an outright case where Pakis attacked india , US intervened and negotiated a deal on behalf of Pakistan and pressurised India , In case of china they would just tell indian leadership to STFU and they are not interested even the though of escalation.

kmkraoind
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3908
Joined: 27 Jun 2008 00:24

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby kmkraoind » 28 Apr 2013 10:14

Jiang group in Chinese army behind incursions -MADHAV NALAPAT from The Sunday Guardian

Jiang Zemin has considerable influence within that section of the military leadership that is known to have substantial funds abroad, as evidenced by family staying or studying in (NATO-bloc) countries. Although former President Hu Jintao sought to cleanse the PLA of such corrupt elements, "the power of the Jiang group meant that he had only very limited success during the decade (2002-2012) that he was in power". Hu's successor Xi Jinping is known to be similarly opposed to the culture of greed and graft spawned under the Jiang years (1991-2001) and is also facing resistance to his clean-up efforts from those unwilling to give up their extra-legal privileges.


Following on the success of Huawei in the telecoms market and Chinese power companies in energy plants, Chinese companies are looking to India to sell infrastructure equipment and projects. "Should tensions grow, Huawei may be once again barred from the Indian market, while Chinese companies would be barred from energy, finance and infrastructure sectors," a senior official worried at PLA activism pointed out, adding that "already China has lost more than $120 billion of (additional) Japanese investment and may lose an equal amount in the India market" should the Jiang group have its way in racheting up tensions along China's periphery. "The Jiang Group wants to sabotage Li's India visit, which is why they have got friendly elements in the PLA to launch a Chinese version of the Forward Policy just weeks before Li's scheduled arrival," claim sources tracking developments in China.


These sources point out that "both the Pakistan as well as the US lobbies within the PLA are eager to sabotage cooperation with India", and that Xi Jinping's open call for military to military cooperation between Beijing and Delhi has been followed by efforts at a coordinated hard line towards the Taliban in Afghanistan. Such moves have alarmed the Pakistan and US lobbies within China, who are both working through their agents to sabotage the Xi Jinping reset in relations with Delhi, these sources claim.

Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Pranav » 28 Apr 2013 10:59

^^^ Most interesting article by MD Nalapat. Worth reading in full.

I only hope that this is not a "Good Cop, Bad Cop" act put on by the Chinese.

Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Pranav » 28 Apr 2013 11:51

Image

eklavya
BRFite
Posts: 1872
Joined: 16 Nov 2004 23:57

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 28 Apr 2013 12:08

The entire CPC/PLA is a rogue organisation, not just one Major General based in Chengdu. Xi Jinping is Chairman of the Central Military Commission. If this incursion is unauthorised, it should take him 10 seconds to order a return to the status quo ante, and it presents him with a huge opportunity to purge the PLA of elements that are disloyal and/or not obeying their orders (which is the most serious breach of military discipline in any armed force).

India's short term and long term response needs to be based on the assumption that the aggression at DBO is fully authorised by the CPC/PLA leadership.

A formal defence pact with countries like Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines is required, as well as a significant ramp up in logistical and offensive capability along the Chinese border. Formal derecognition of Chinese control over Tibet is also essential. Certainly no telecoms or energy equipment should be bought from China.

eklavya
BRFite
Posts: 1872
Joined: 16 Nov 2004 23:57

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 28 Apr 2013 12:23

Tavleen Singh also calls it right:

Jokers in charge

Tavleen Singh : Sun Apr 28 2013, 03:30 hrs

Chinese soldiers are currently on a camping trip in Ladakh. The insouciance with which they crossed the border and set up their tents on Indian soil revives horrible memories of a war in which we suffered a humiliating defeat. It should have worried our government but it did not. Ministers of the Government of India handled this insidious new form of troop movement with the sanguinity they exhibited when an Indian soldier was beheaded on another troubled border. Is this arrogance, cowardice or stupidity? I leave it for those who understand our namby-pamby foreign policy better than I do to answer that question, but would like to discuss this week the domestic consequences of this behaviour.

On account of the peculiar situation of India having for the first time ever (and hopefully the last) two prime ministers and two cabinets, there is total confusion about who is making policy and who is accountable for what. Of course, we all know that Sonia Gandhi is more powerful than the Prime Minister and that her NAC (National Advisory Council) has overridden the Cabinet on many policy matters, but we do not know who is accountable when things go wrong. In the absence of clarity, governance has become a serious casualty. So let us hope and pray that those Chinese soldiers in Ladakh are just having a little summer holiday.

eklavya
BRFite
Posts: 1872
Joined: 16 Nov 2004 23:57

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby eklavya » 28 Apr 2013 13:26

China to pay huge price if it does not stop skirmishes with neighbours

China to pay huge price if it does not stop skirmishes with neighbours
26 Apr, 2013, 04.42AM IST

Edward Luttwak

Recent incursions by the Chinese army into Indian territory in the Depsang region of Ladakh neither signify anything nor prove anything. In fact, they are all contained. But the Chinese army must stay in the game on the western front because the navy and the air force of the country get all the eastern business.

However, with such an aggressive country around as neighbour, India cannot afford to be too calm and complacent when it comes to modernising its defence forces and replacing obsolescent equipment. Of course, India had responded to China's expanding military power by continuing to strengthen its own armed forces. Though with hesitation, it had offered its training facilities for Vietnam's new submarine fleet. We all know that Beijing has abandoned its "Peaceful Rise" and is increasingly quarrelling with its neighbours on the west as well as the east.

EVEN ROADS ARE BAD

However, at this juncture, India must clearly note the glacial pace of military procurement across the globe. What is highly worrisome is that even the roads built by the Border Roads Organisation behind possible frontlines are too narrow and too easily interruptible. One must think out of the box while building new, linear roads that are able to withstand attacks from across the border.

I must say that India will do well by not following China in its act of quarrelling: unlike Beijing, New Delhi should not fight with its neighbours. China is in the process of paralysing itself by picking fights with all its neighbours (such as Vietnam, India, Japan, Taiwan and so on). This is a fatal mistake. It would have been fatal for any country, including the US, if it had attempted something similar. That is why the US never bullies Canada or Mexico. If the US had gone after Canada or Mexico (by quarrelling over land, natural resources, or for regional dominance), they would have had Soviet bases there. The US doesn't even opt for "hot pursuits" - chasing down criminals once they cross the border.

BEWARE OF JAPAN

Therefore, China will pay a price. It is going to be huge if it doesn't stop and it seems that the country is in no mood to stop. This country's undoing will be a war or even a minor skirmish with Japan over the Senkaku Islands, a group of uninhabited islands controlled by Japan in the East China Sea. China will soon, maybe in a year or two, stake a much bigger claim for these islands. That will be the end. They can't even start a war. They will be decimated by the Japanese navy even before they start it. Any such move against Japan will be extremely disastrous for China.

I treat as a joke China's accusation that Japan and the US are being provocative by going for a joint drill. Beijing was referring to a proposed June joint drill by the US and Japan to "capture" an imaginary island. But it is the Chinese that keep sending ships, making aggressive statements, printing maps claiming 3 million square kilometres of sea. They are being provocative every day by advancing long dormant territorial and maritime claims, including most of Arunachal Pradesh.

India must resist any security relations China may try to forge with, say, a neighbour like Sri Lanka, by offering better terms, as well as it can. But first India must wake from its slumber and face reality. This is all the more important at a time when China is in the process of constantly competing with all its neighbours - its new-found aggression over land and sea in the neighbourhood is very similar to the expansionist tendencies of pre-World War II Germany.

JE Menon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 7052
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby JE Menon » 28 Apr 2013 14:25

That does not read like Luttwak. Weird.

Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8311
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Pratyush » 28 Apr 2013 15:24

I have said this in the past that, the PRC's actions are a reploca of the Germans before WW2. But at the same time bashing India, secures the western front for them for the next 30 to 50 yers, as cuts india down a notch or 2.

Varoon Shekhar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2016
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 23:26

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby Varoon Shekhar » 28 Apr 2013 18:04

"..does not read like Luttwak."

Few articles I've read from him are not sympathetic to India developing its capabilities, including even in space. So something has changed, and it has to be the realisation that China is not a useful "counterweight" to Russia anymore, rather a threat by itself.

harbans
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4883
Joined: 29 Sep 2007 05:01
Location: Dehradun

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby harbans » 28 Apr 2013 19:27

The first mention of Kailash Mansarover is made in MSM..
India has the potential of becoming a significant gainer from Sino-Japanese tension, fissures which seem certain to continue into the foreseeable future, now that Beijing has shown that it is willing to court unpopularity throughout Asia by claiming sovereignty over the South China Sea in a manner which negates not only the rights of the rest of the world to navigate within its waters, but that of other countries whose coastlines abut the now contested sea. While Thailand and Indonesia have been relatively quiet as compared to Vietnam and the Philippines, the reality is that every country in Asia other than China (and, interestingly, Taiwan) opposes the Chinese claim to the South China Sea.

This claim has been put forward through the use of arguments that could very easily be used by India to claim Tibet as its territory (seeing that the Maharaja of Kashmir had "Tibet Adhipati" as one of his titles and that both Kailash and Mansarovar are located in land now controlled by China). Indeed, if Beijing can claim Tawang on quasi-religious grounds, India can easily follow suit by claiming Kailash and Mansarovar on the same basis. Not, of course, that the timid souls atop Delhi's Raisina Hill would ever dare follow Beijing's precedent.


MD Malapat in Sunday Guardiam

member_23692
BRFite
Posts: 441
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby member_23692 » 28 Apr 2013 19:28

eklavya wrote:The entire CPC/PLA is a rogue organisation, not just one Major General based in Chengdu. Xi Jinping is Chairman of the Central Military Commission. If this incursion is unauthorised, it should take him 10 seconds to order a return to the status quo ante, and it presents him with a huge opportunity to purge the PLA of elements that are disloyal and/or not obeying their orders (which is the most serious breach of military discipline in any armed force).

India's short term and long term response needs to be based on the assumption that the aggression at DBO is fully authorised by the CPC/PLA leadership.

A formal defence pact with countries like Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines is required, as well as a significant ramp up in logistical and offensive capability along the Chinese border. Formal derecognition of Chinese control over Tibet is also essential. Certainly no telecoms or energy equipment should be bought from China.


Yes, all the above needs to be done. But the above is not sufficient. An alliance with these countries is not likely to deter China, if the Chinese realize (correctly, I might add) that India is a socially "pock marked" nation which is politically and yes, even militarily hollowed out. If Indian internal weakness persists, none of these alliances will make any differences.

Besides, even if India were militarily, socially and economically much stronger, in the best of circumstances, these countries will not exactly clamor for such formal alliances with India due to their participation in other formations around the world. Certainly the Philippines and particularly the Japanese, despite all the Chinese threats are not breaking down our door asking for any alliance. They are both under the US umbrella, including the US nuclear umbrella and feel fundamentally pretty secure being a part of that formation. And unless we pick ourselves up more through internal strength, I agree with someone who mentioned earlier on this thread that "Vietnam would have no use for us either". People enter those alliances which they look upon as assets. Who wants to pick up a liability such as India. Can you name any nation in the world today, which is, forget about seeking, but even open to a formal alliance with India? even one ? even a "small rock in the ocean in the middle of nowhere" nation ?

The fundamental answer here is to begin the long and arduous task of rebuilding ourselves as a nation. There are no shortcuts and it is high time we begin. If we start now, our generation of course will get no rewards for it, maybe the next two generations will not either (other than the mental satisfaction that we did our best and we did good for our future generations) . Maybe, if we succeed in our endeavor and dont get devoured by others in the meantime, our third or fourth generations will start reaping the benefits. This is how nations are made, not through short term "Jugad", which has become our national motto.

In order to rebuild, we cannot rely on the government or the ruling power elite or even our current political structure. We the people have to take matter in our own hands, even if we start with a small cohesive group and then expand it. What is required is 1) Clear definition of the problem and an understanding of why that problem/s exists and what is coming in the way of us resolving the deep problems that we face, 2) Change in the value system, where we as a society start attributing a high premium and thereby high respect for basic human qualities such as hard work, sacrifice, long term (strategic) thinking, team work, cooperation, the idea of forgoing the present for the future and most of all HONESTY AND INTEGRITY. If there is no honesty or integrity a highly intelligent and smart people such as us will continue to be in the "dust heap", not of history but always of the present and we will continue to be sitting ducks for all and sundry. Lack of honesty and integrity is a cancer that can defeat the best of individuals, institutions, societies, peoples and nations. Lack of honesty and integrity nullifies all our efforts. There is a word for "lack of honesty and integrity", it is called corruption. We start with devaluing it in our society and all the other things will fall in place.

Honesty and integrity are such attractive qualities, that everyone wants to be around people who possess them. Nations would like to align with an honest people. Adversaries will have respect and fear of an honest people. In fact, I take part of what I said earlier back, that it will take generations for us to realize the benefits if we start now. In one respect, if we just become a more honest nation and people, some of the benefits will be immediate and tangible. Scum such as Chinese and Islamists will immediately get a little intimidated and back off some, merely by seeing that India with all its other qualities now has hard work, honesty, integrity and sacrifice in its arsenal.

chaanakya
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9513
Joined: 09 Jan 2010 13:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby chaanakya » 28 Apr 2013 20:23

More Shit from Kongoon


http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/st ... 45092.html
The area was "no-man's land" and disputed between the two countries, Shinde said adding troops of both the countries keep coming and going there.

"The issue will be resolved by talks between two armies," he told reporters.

chaanakya
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9513
Joined: 09 Jan 2010 13:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Postby chaanakya » 28 Apr 2013 20:28

Harbans ji

India should make the disputed status of Tibet clear to China and the world community. It should not recognise Chinese control and sovereignty over Tibet. The Tibetan Govt in Exile at Dhramshala should be recognised as de-jure Govt with their passports for tibetan citizens. Also it should be included in SAARC grouping.

Meanwhile Maansarovar are should be claimed as Indian territory which it is. There are ample records , both historical and political to show that Indian empire did have control over these areas.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Pathik and 51 guests